A Pro's Thoughts on the Future (Wager)

It’s not everyday that a blogger gets the opportunity to interview a handicapping legend. In fact, most bloggers will go their entire life and never actually speak to someone who truly knows horses. So when I approached professional handicapper Andy Serling’s people and requested an interview, I knew my chances of ever speaking to him were slim at best. Thus, when they asked for my phone number so they could get back to me “when the time was right”, I took that as a sign that I would be forced to interview the guy who sells mystery meat hamburgers at Pimlico if I wanted a true racetrack veteran to be the subject of my next blog entry.

But then, it happened.

I was on the treadmill when I got the call. The number came up as “Blocked” on my caller ID. But I answered anyway.

“Hello? This is Justin,” I said.

“Mr. Serling will meet you now. A van will pick you up in ten minutes. Don’t be late,” said the voice on the other end.

I responded, “But I’m at the gym, and I haven’t showered. Can we…..”

I was interrupted by the caller.

“We know where you are. We don’t care. Ten minutes. Black van. Outside your apartment,” said the mysterious caller. And then, CLICK. He hung up.

So I cut my workout short, drove home as fast as I could, ran inside, grabbed a pen and notebook, and made it back to the parking lot just as the black van pulled up. I had never been more nervous in my life.

The door of the van slid open, and in an instant I was grabbed by two men wearing what appeared to be jockey silks. But I can’t say what they were wearing for sure, as seconds later a bag was placed over my head and I was forced to the van’s floor.

“Can I just ask where we’re going?” I inquired.

“No. Quiet. No questions,” said the driver. The van sped off and would not stop for what seemed like hours.

When the van finally did stop, I was escorted into an old, abandoned building in an industrial area. I have no idea what town I was in, or even what state for that matter. I was led into a dark office with only one window and no lamp. It was tough to see, as my eyes had not yet recovered from my head being in the bag for the whole trip. But as my eyes slowly came back into focus, I could see that I was in a very well-decorated room, in the middle of which was a desk. On the other side of the desk was a chair, turned away from me. Then, I heard a voice.

“So, you’re Justin Dew I take it?” said the voice.

“Umm. Yes, are you Andy Serling?” I asked.

The chair began to move. As it turned toward me, I saw a man seated. But I couldn’t make out much else. You know, because of the darkness and the eyes and so forth.

“Yes,” said the man. “I am Andy Serling. I am a big, big fan of your blog. I read it everyday. Sometimes twice a day. You are an exceptionally talented writer. Maybe the best I have ever read. I understand you have some questions for me,” Andy said.

“Yeah. It won’t take long. I only have about ten questions,” I responded.

“That’s great. You can ask me five of them. Get started. I’m alive in the Pick 4 at Gulfstream to the 6 and the 8, and I don’t want to miss it. The post parade is about to start,” said Andy.

“Ok. Can we get some light in here? I want to be able to see my notes,” I asked.

“There is no light, and you now have four questions left,” declared Andy.

(Ok, Ok. None of this really happened. The interview took place over the telephone. I was in my kitchen. Andy was at his home, and could not have been nicer or more generous with his time. But come on. How exciting is that? He’s a successful horse player. I’m required to at least TRY to make him look like a jerk, right?)

The questions……

JD: With the Derby Future Wager coming up, handicappers are going to have to deal with the fact that several top contenders have yet to run on dirt. How would you approach this issue for the Future Wager and on Derby Day if it is still an issue at that point?

AS: To me it’s the single biggest factor in this year’s Derby. Because more than any year in history you will have a substantial portion of the field whose past performances you can’t rely on. The guessing factor will be much bigger this year. A lot of us will be guessing on Derby Day. As for the Future Wager, this uncertainty would make me more inclined to do one of two things: Pay closer attention to a horse with proven dirt form, or take chances on horses that have run poorly over synthetic surfaces in the hopes that the surface was to blame. I will excuse any bad race on any synthetic surface, as long as there is a good race somewhere to hang my hat on.

JD: Street Sense won the Derby last year off of two races in six months. Curlin ran 3rd off of three lifetime starts. Were these two simply too good to be hurt by a light schedule, or do you think we are seeing a new school of thought regarding Derby preparation?

AS: I don’t just think we are seeing a new school of thought in regard to training. I know we are. I know this because of conversations I have had with trainers who have been successful for years. Even if you have trainers that might say they think the old way was the way to go back then, the game is changing now. The rules change. And as a bettor or a trainer, you can’t adhere to a rule just because of the past. That being said, I still think the Curlins of the world will remain the exception, not the rule. While experience does seem to becoming less and less important, I would still like to see two-year-old form from a Derby prospect.

JD: Which will happen first: A Dubai-prepped horse winning the Derby, or another horse winning the Derby without a start at age two?

AS: I think we will see a Dubai-prepped horses win before a horse with no two-year-old races. Considering the money they have spent, odds are they will do it eventually.

JD: Of the top Derby contenders this year, which do you think will be the most over bet in the Future Wager, and why?

AS: Court Vision. I think he’s just too slow to win. I think people are impressed because he has come from behind in his races. He’s looked impressive, especially in his last start. But they’ve been slow races, and I don’t like slow horses in the Derby.

JD: If you had to choose, who would be your top pick to win the Derby at this point?

AS: I think War Pass has to be considered the horse to beat. He is the only horse that we have seen who might be a superstar. Now, I have no argument for someone who is worried about his potential distance limitations. But he has displayed a special talent in a year where mediocrity seems to rule. I hope that changes, but I haven’t seen it yet. So War Pass is my top pick. If you want a horse to watch out for, Barrier Reef is one who could surprise some people.

So there you have it, straight from the horseplayer’s mouth.

Synthetic performances- Take ‘em with a grain of salt.

The rules for Derby success- No more.

The Dubai route- Someday.

Horse to stay away from in the Future Wager- Court Vision.

Top pick at this point- War Pass.

Bomb alert- Barrier Reef.

I will post a few of my own thoughts on the Future Wager later this weekend, once the betting has started and the odds begin to fall into place.