Taking a (Temporary and Adjustable) Stand

What no Dixie Chatter ??????? on the list (Is he hurt), or Blackberry Road (you know where I stand), I'm hurt Justin, very hurt. Here I am lying in intensive care, with a beautiful nurse by my side and I get this news. See this is why I am here right now.

You have a lot of reconciliation to do my friend, in your future.

I like Court Vision alot in the FOY. Yes he is slow, but so are all the rest.
In each race for Court Vision, there was never a clear path to run to the wire, but yet the horse has found away to WIN!. Court Vision is at least 5 lengths better in each race last year.

Should be undefeated except for breaking slow in the 6 furlong maidens, in which he almost pulled it off at the wire. So let's say he is undefeated anyway, would he not be favorite for all the money with a grade II and Grade III win's in the bank.

Not the fact, Churchill Downs was playing extremely slow in his win. Any horse who win's as a two year at the BIG HOUSE, you must take very seriously. All of his two turn races were won with authority and impressively.

I don't think Dixie Chatter is in training at the moment (but I could be mistaken).

I like Blackberry Road. Just not as much as the others.

Barry - I like Blackberry Road too and think his trip wasn't the best in the Risen Star. Hopefully, he gets a better trip next time. For some reason, I am thinking Dixie Chatter is hurt, but cannot say for sure. I am throwing one out there for you....Tomcito. If he runs in the US (instead of Dubai), he could be the MONSTER this year. Just my opinion, but I cannot wait for him to run again. If you get a chance, check out his races on youtube - the video quality isn't that great, but watch it a few times and you'll have a better idea. Even though he did it in Peru, he did beat older horses as a 2YO going 10 and 12 furlongs. Not to mention, the way he did it was very impressive. Other interesting facts - Prado retains the mount from the trainer who helped jumpstart his career in Peru and also the winningest trainer in Peru for the last 25 years.

Justin - Kudos to you for not completely jumping on the Pyro bandwagon. Is it just me or were there several horses in recent years (Dollar Bill definitely comes to mind)receiving a TON of hype after the Risen Star? Anyhow, I am sure you've already been asked and probably answered this question a time or two, but what do you think of Tomcito?

I hope to see Tomcito point for the Kentucky Derby, but it's sounding like the Belmont is the ultimate goal.

Yo,

I'll take you up on your comments on the San Felipe, and I'll take Georgie Boy for whatever you're willing to put up.

I was at Del Mar last summer...and the after race interview with Garret was enough to make this the 1st horse I put on my watch list...

Have you seen his dosage?

....and with the kind of speedballs that continuosly pop up in these SA prep races, and 'Mischief's need to overly press on the front end, Georgie lays about 3-4 lengths back into the far turn, then pulls off the patented Alysheba/Sunday Silence/(you pick the monster) 4 wide sweep that will move him up to the top 5 on your list.

In the FOY...Pletcher has always made it a habit to keep his good mules separated, and he has had plenty of opportunity to run others (COWBOY CAL, CHECK IT TWICE, and FACE THE CAT) but I don't see them in the starting the gate, and MONBA has been slated for this dance for some time now.

Look for a monster effort from MONBA in what should be a great betting race.

GJ from 'havasu

I'll bet you a Churchill Downs cheeseburger that Into Mischief beats Georgie Boy in the San Felipe.

Georgie Boy is the real deal. Look at his last and he was still high stepping at the wire wanting more. All he needs is a good finshing 2nd or 3rd and he should make the Derby field if he wants in.

Dixie Chatter is still a horse to watch but only has one work, which was last week. Mandella already said that it would have to be the perfect situation for him to make it back. I look for him trying one graded stakes and then maybe the Preakness?

So happy Cot took Calvin off of Blackberry Rd., never liked him as a jockey, and he ruined any chance of him getting much needed graded earnings in the Risen Star. With new jockey (Robby) he should swing 4 or 5 wide and show what he is made of in the LA Derby.

WAR PASS GETS IN THE RACE AFTER THE FOY......................................Fountain of Youth S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $350,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Cool Coal Man Desormeaux K J 118 L
2 Golden Spikes Castellano J J 116 L
3 Court Vision Gomez G K 122 L
4 Kentucky Bear Trujillo E 116 L
5 Z Humor Velasquez C 120 L
6 Ready Set Lezcano J 116 L
7 Monba Prado E S 116 L
8 Anak Nakal Leparoux J R 120 L
9 Elysium Fields Coa E M 116 L
10 Halo Najib Douglas R R 120 L
11 Make the Point Velazquez J R 116 L
12 Adriano Castro E 116 L

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10th (5:44)

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $60,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Jet Run Petro N Jr 108 L
2 Chadwell Chavez J F 118 L
3 Web Gem Bravo J 118 L
4 Ultimate Authority Velazquez J R 118 L
5 War Pass Velasquez C 118 L
6 Dylan's Choice Dominguez E 108 L

Zito's plans was never to run him in the FOY, he will keep looking for easy spots until the first Sat in May without any losses so he can have all the notoriety he usually gets at that time of the year. He will win this weekend at 2/5 and then head to Tampa and escape any true Derby runners until then.

The bad thing is we won't really get a good idea of what he is made of until the KY Derby, which is not good for the betting public. But great for me, as I have him as a toss in the Classic distance. He is either going to be a monster and win the Derby wire to wire, or will go down as another Juvi Winner who was over rated by many. I prefer the later.

Califonia's fields have been small and with the Spring Classic season doomed for Crown of Thorns I wonder if a contender from the East may move west to prep for the derby...maybe one that has already proven dirt capability...

So Z Fortune is going to Oaklawn? The Gotham?

Justin, good to see that Pyro hasn't been anointed champion just yet. I have a theory on the Derby that basically says that a horse only has a couple of top races in his 3 year old season and if he has already run a couple of them during the preps...see Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road, Free House, he may come up short in the Derby...So I toss Pyro and War Pass...for different reasons.

I liked Crown of Thorns a lot because of his tactical speed, but now I just need to see some more races to form an opinion. This Sunday's racing should really put things into perspective for East Coast racing, and I have no idea who to like in the FOY. I just hope that Z Fortune doesn't have to wear 6 pounds more than Pyro next time they clash.

Pyro soundly defeated Z Fortune in a hand ride after being on the shelf for 4 months, i cant see him turning the tables. As for War Pass i hope he wins and runs off the TV screen atleast all the other horses odds will go up in the future pools .. Then hes going to Tampa which who in the world could he possibly run into there a bunch a nobodys....Let him roll into to Churchill undefeated as the favorite which he most likely will be and when he hits the half in 45 and change in the Derby you wont be able to find him with a search warrant after the race..:)

Z Humor after racing last week? Mmmkay.

I'm staying away from Zito in the FOY (like his chances in the following race though). Court Vision, Elysium Fields, Monba. Box it up. For the hell of it, a couple bucks on Kentucky Bear to win.

I can't get a read on the California horses at all. I guess we'll see next week.

I like Adriano but not at post 12...maybe he'll scratch and head elsewhere. Mike yeah Pyro will have to run 1 1/4 miles in the Derby and not just 1/4 mile, as the Derby pace won't allow him to jog for that long...and he will carry equal weight, and he will have to run better than his last race to win. Z Fortune ran a dud after his big effort a race back, and was not fully cranked in his works leading up to the race either, as Pyro was. When Z Fortune's works get fast again he will be ready for step forward and about one more step forward in career race number 5 is likely.

Anak Nakal!!!

And enough with Tomcito already. Let's wait until he races against horses rather than donkeys. Those youtube videos do not impress me at all. He walked home as the donkeys stopped.

I timed the races:

10F in 2:12

12F in 2:36

I don't know anything about Monterrico, but come on. I think Spanish Chestnut could finish 1 1/4 in 2:12.

Let's be real. Wait. That's all I ask from you guys.

Justin Dew, the King of the Bloggers!

Justin - I'll bet you Georgie Boy vs. Into Mischief head-to-head in the San Felipe. How much are you willing to put on it?

Georgie Boy already took him out once lol

Dan,

I'll bet you a Churchill Downs cheeseburger, just like I bet with "gjderby".

Mac,

Thanks for the kind words.

Patbateman,

Great name. (American Psycho reference?. But I wouldn't toss either horse just yet.

Justin, I going to give you a excellent opportunity.

3-1 odds on Into Mischief 3 Cheeseburger to 1 Subway Sandwich, I am a true professional and am on a Jarrett diet.

I will take Georgie Boy, you may have Into Mischief

Now let's add up the fine-fast-food dining. A plate worthy for a king

Make way for the "King". KING JUSTIN

My lord!, we have tax the people and have received their taxes.

Dan (1)Cheeseburger
MAC (1)Cheeseburger
Barry (3)Cheeseburger

My Lord you can earn 5 Cheeseburger from your subjects if you win.
Can you eat all that red meat at once? Ain't you on a diet! or something. To much greasy foods will lead to high cholesterol and clogging up the brain cells My Lord.

Take away this little man, and put him on my horse called Into Mischief.

Justin IM does not like Santa Anita racing surfaces.

The horse would not sit down while racing on the outside chasing the speed. Ran choppy the entire race and down the stretch run. So you can count on him having trouble maintaining the lead throughout with pressure.

Georgie Boy win's easily again, the horse relish Santa Anita. The comeback race was a monster race. I have this feeling Georgie Boy never reach the bottom. After watching the interview, with the trainer saying, they gave Georgie Boy time off to mature early, after Del Mar Futurity. Therefore, I am looking for much more improvement and the winner circle as the favorite for the Santa Anita Derby.

Coast to Coast - Court Vision to Georgie Boy

Sorry this is off topic but.... Why do the horses that are featured this year have dosage rating like/ 2-6-5-0-1 or 9-2-7-0-0 and some of the past winners are like 16-8-22-1-1?? Why are all of the numbers so low in this years crop?

And seperately when is tale of ekati supposed to run again. I really liked him last year.

Until War Pass loses he is the horse to beat.

Justin,
I'm with you on Yankee Bravo. I know he has defeated pretty much nobody and until he tackles real horses he is "JAH" (just a horse) . But , I liked the way he ran, his turn of foot, love his pedigree too, not sure he can win the Derby, but he is a longshot sleeper who could go from "JAH" to "AKOH" (any kind of horse)in one race.

the book not the movie, just kidding, but yeah the race Sunday should be great, I'm looking forward to it. Hopefully it will be as entertaining as the Gulfstream preps last year with Stormello, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy slugging it out.

Going on 5 hours and no one has seen or heard from Justin.

Another late night I presume! Doesn't J-MAN have a normal job!

Probably clamoring in some dark remote corner,wondering about, what it might have been.

Come on Justin, let Father MAC, DAN, BARRY exorcise your demon's,

The room is shaking, the light are flickering, and the Ceiling is cracking,

Come out of him, we command you Cheeseburger, Come forth!.

Yum, Yum, Yum time. Okay here it comes, Justin delivers a WHOPPER for DAN, oh! here come another, It's a BIG MAC for the MAC, and finally triplets SIX DOLLAR BURGER's.

I'm not greedy, One for me, and two for the homeless!!.

Thanks JUSTIN, we will have it our way!

Justin - reneg on your bets. Here's Mandella via thedowneyprofile...

“We haven’t gotten him over a foot problem we’re dealing with,” the trainer said. “Maybe he can make the San Felipe; maybe not. I’ve been fighting a hind (left) foot problem. We nursed him through the San Vicente Stakes. I thought it would clean up quicker, although it’s been a little bit stubborn, but it will eventually clean up. The San Felipe is still a consideration.”

This ain't football. Even if a horse is only listed as "probable" he's still at a huge disadvantage if he expects to catch Georgie Boy...who runs like he just plowed through Tony Montana's private stash.

Words like "fighting," "nursed," "stubborn" and the clinching phrase "it will eventually clean up" don't sound good for the here and now.

Barry,

Are you OK my friend?

romccann,

Yes, this is not great news for Into Mischief. I agree. With the fragility of the modern t-bred, any setback can mean death to one's Derby chances.

Cd Potato...

Let me enlighten you a little before you make a bigger fool of yourself. Monterrico is a deep sand track. Imagine running in dry sand where you sink down 5-6 inches...thats monterrico...

Now, as far as teh competition, surely they are not grade I us caliber horses, however, Peru had Dominguin in 2005, that went to the UAE derby finished 5th behind Discreet cat (won) and Invasor (4th) and Dominguin was a one turn horse, who would be beaten 20 by tomcito in a mile and a quarter...

Then we have the best Peru ever had SANTORIN, in the 70's who came to the US and finished on board behind Forego in his first start in the US....

Now statisticians has entered data and have concluded that tomcito last quarter of a mile on the 1 1/4 race and teh 1 1/2 race have been the fastest 2 furlongs ever run at monterrico adjusted by the bias and speed variances...based on that, which may mean nothing too, he definitely deserves to be considered...and respected...unless i am full of it and then you can tell me so...

Dont think so...

cheers..

Tomcito is out of STREET CRY plain and simple

Never better J-Man. Who did you settle on in the FOY.

I say let the FOY run first, and minutes later, open the gate for WAR PASS allowance race.

I can see War Pass catching the field of the FOY by the far turn and drawing away.

Give the horse both purses, and call it a day!

Justin, you left off Fierce Wind...why?

Barry,

My good buddy Dan Shaprio placed a future wager on my behalf on Anak Nakal at 50-1 out in Las Vegas. I expect him to run well on Sunday. But I think the FOY is shaping up as one of the most anticipated preps (at least by me) in recent years.

battfit,

I left off Fierce Wind because I can name about 15 other horses who I think are more likely to win the Derby at this point, including at least three in Zito's stable.

sripa1212 - I am with you that Tomcito is for real. Although, he might not even run in US until later this year. Here's to hoping he runs in a Derby prep and the owners keep him here for THE DERBY (not the UAE Derby, then Belmont route).

...no way!

Justin...
Please share with us a reason or two why you dnt like Fierce Wind.

I really liked Fierce Wind in the Davis, but I gotta agree with Justin that there are quite a few more likely derby winners. (Did you notice he started drifting in the stretch when he cleared- looked like he may have tired just a bit) The one thing he does have going for him is that he's not gonna have to come from out of the clouds. (Deep closers are too much of a "crap shoot" in 20 horse fields because of the potential for traffic trouble.-Yes, they do win the Derby-the problem is trying to find the right one) Hopefully everyone will keep expecting War Pass to stop on Derby Day and I'll get 4/1 or so which would be a gift on the next "superhorse"

battfist,

I never said I didn't like Fierce Wind, or that he can't win the Derby. I just think he is not among the ten most likely winners at this point. Thus, he did not make my Top 10 list. He definitely belongs on the Derby trail, which is more than I can say for a few others who will undoubtedly be on the trail too long.

While I know there's still a very good number of preps to be run, usually by this point I've at least got a semi-fluid top-ten list and at least one horse I refuse to jump off of. Until recently I really liked Blackberry Road - and I still like him. Just a little more conservatively, especially considering his running style. Same thing with Pyro, though he seems more athletic than BR, able to take a bit of trouble. In any case, I have a question that's been nagging me for some time.

Why is it that so many think War Pass can't get the derby distance? Yes, I know his pedigree doesn't indicate that he will be able to get a mile and a quarter - but we all know pedigree is an imperfect gauge of the actual horse. I managed to catch his 2008 debut today - I've read some comments that people think he's ducking competition. But if I remember something I read correctly, another front-running two-year-old champion took the allowance route for his three year old debut, and all he did was go on to win the Triple Crown, in front running fashion (Haha, no, I am not saying that I think War Pass is the second coming of Seattle Slew, only that there's merit to the method and I'm sure the trainer knows best). In any case, from what I saw (no audio) War Pass was being held and posted up fractions of like, 23 something for the quarter mile and 46 and change for the half. . . and that's almost a joke to this horse; he practically skipped home.

Now, front runners are not my favorite. Really. And I know he didn't beat a stellar field, by any means. But does anyone else think he just might get an uncontested lead if nothing goes wrong and he enters the gate as expected on Derby Day? If anyone else sees a different scenario unfolding, or has a different reason for thinking he can't get the distance besides pedigree, please tell me. For now, I'm with some of the others: until he proves he can't, he's The Man.

Moon Exalt - I am with you. Until War Pass gets beat, he is THE horse to beat. I remember all too well what the naysayers said about Hard Spun last year - his speed won't hold up. Now, I don't like to play the "if" game, but if Street Sense didn't get through on the rail, Hard Spun wears the roses - easily. Front running tactics also bring to mind War Emblem and Winning Colors, who many also said had no chance at winning the Derby. In my honest opinion (not that I am an expert by any means - just a fan), speed can carry 10 furlongs and has done so many times in the past. Before others throw rocks at me - I know, it's 10 furlongs, but it CAN and has been accomplished. If he stays healthy and continues to shine, there's no reason he can't wire the field (barring his post position is decent). I say this because, so far, no other horse has been able to stay with him and still running at the end. The only horse to come close has been Pyro, but he was also beaten all three times by War Pass and WP was under wraps. Although, WP didn't beat much today and he was under a stranglehold the entire trip, he would have destroyed the field in the FOY. Yes, Court Vision did close, but was drilled for the victory. Gomez had several excuses after the race saying he took back to avoid traffic, etc., but bottom line is CV wasn't good enough to win. Not to take anything away from Cool Coal Man, but today's race is somewhat of a disappointment for me, not to mention slow. However, Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields did separate themselves from the rest of field and bear watching once more. Again, to reiterate, War Pass SHOULD be #1 until proven otherwise.

Justin, Zito said Anak needed more speed to run at?

I am not sure I agree with the statement. Etched didn't run well and now Anak didn't fire either.

I think it is a good idea to re-evaluate their races earlier. I am pretty sure I'm going to drop Ethced from the list of possibles and Anak now.

Court Vision should be a major treat in the Florida Derby. The top two had preps prior to the running. So there performance are true ratings. But, Court Vision will probaly make up 5 lenghts or more next outing. Racing in last place is not the norm for the horse. He has tactical speed and should become a treat in the FOY.

I'm thinking 6-1 to 8-1 in the Florida Derby! Ching! Ching!

Barry-

The only question with Court Vision is Does Mott want to improve 5 lengths, or does he want his best race to come in the Derby? (Depending on where War Pass goes, he may be the most talented horse in the Fla Derby, but he was the most talented in the FOY-Mott has never won the derby and he's looking for a win in May, not February or April)

Can the Fountain of Youth be a race to fairly judge the participants? There were some major disappointments.

Everyone,

Anak Nakal was a massive disappointment, not matter how you look at it. Court Vision ran fine for it being his first start, but the race itself did not live up to my expectations. I'll have more to say in my next entry.

Pletcher's best horse might be another filly, Game Face, maybe we will see her on the derby trail????
Justin, I agree, Mandella has a dandy with Into Mischief.

Well, they ran Court Vision very hard the last 1/4 of a mile. Legs were fine as they extended. I agree the condition was not there? The race tactics appeared to have the horse drop in on the rail and save ground the entire trip,

I really don't get the decision, because the inside track was playing dead all day. Most trainers elected the 3-4 paths to race.

Therefore, I believe the horse lost an enormous amount of lengths from the time the gate open. Even the announcer said, Court Vision was 15 lengths out of it!

The other factor, which was noticeably, the front runners (Make the Point), was still leading the pack outside the 1st and 2nd place finisher with a 1/8 of a mile to go by 1-2 lengths.

So Justin, I believe the track condition played variances on many of the horses. Like I said, the top two finishers had preps over the track. The Florida Derby will be a much tighter race hopefully.

But Shug has a horse which ran excellent in an earlier race at 1 1/8 distance. Cosmic, out of the exceptional mare Heavenly Prize from the Phipps Stable, I’m sure Shug will be thinking about the in F-Day!
The colt time was comparative to the FOY.

War Pass, pass the test, nothing more than a workout as the jockey hands never moved, At least War Pass ran off the rail the entire race.

I don't know why I'm having these thoughts, but I just don't see Nick in Tampa.
Yea, I read the articles about War Pass schedule to the K-Day, but there nothing appealing about the TB-Day at the moment.

It's a Grade III, even though most trainers believe the race should be Grade II. War Pass does not need the earnings, and the ultimate prep goal is the Wood. Something tells Nick is going to stir the pot for another, New York prep race at 1 1/16.

The condition book has The Gotham Stakes Grade III 250K on March 8th, since War Pass had a very easy race, the additional week spread between the Tampa and Wood, would be better suited between the Gotham and the Wood. It would also allow War Pass to have all of his remaining condition in New York and unto the K-Derby as a traditional favorite.

Someone want to explain to me the times in the FOY?

The video has fractions of :25+ and :49+, final time around 1:51 ^4.

The chart has fractions of :23+ and :46+, final time 1:49.5.

In addition DRF clocked the time in 1:50 ^1.

What the hell is going on? Was it a slow pace after all? According to Equibase it went pretty quick. I am extremely confused by the time discrepencies. They aren't even close to agreeing.

Comments please.

Cdpotato4,

The times recorded on the race replay are incorrect. Gulfstream and equibase released the new times which are on the chart that you mentioned.

I just hope that the FOY ends all of the hype for Monba. There was absolutely no excuse for running that poor of a race. It absolutely baffled me to see how many experts had picked Monba as one of their top 5 derby horses.

Thanks.

That settles it then. I believe the performances of Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields were superb despite the speed bias at Gulfstream.

The half in :46 and change and 3/4 in 1:10 in change. Seems to me like Monba, Anak Nakal, AND Court Vision failed to show up.

The pace wasn't slow. These horses disappointed. I hope they will all go again in the Florida Derby though. I am interested to see if at least one of them is for real. If they perform well there, I could toss this one.

After watching this weeks races i still havent seen any horse with a turn a foot like PYRO he is still my #1 choice..Any horse who closes from dead last in the stretch in a hand ride with a half of 49 thats just FILTH....War Pass did what he had to do but for some reason this horse is reminding me of the next Bellamy Road, does anyone else think that? ....And poor Mandella his horses are dropping like flies first Dixie Chatter then Crown of Thorns and now Into Mischief might not make the San Felipe....

Mike War Pass is still number one!

Speed rating 102 in return under a hand ride is towering.

Also, I don't care what anyone say's, the FOY was a slow race.

They did not go the half in 46 and change and 1:10. The announcer said they were running a slow pace during the race at 49 for the half. There was nothing in the race with 46 speed. Even Nick said the pace was slow. Look at all the times for each race all day. They were running mile races in 1:38 and above. Cosmic for Shug ran the half in 49 and sic furlong in 1:12 and change.

So if they want to play with the clock, then I guess War Pass ran a mile in 1:34 and change under a hand ride. His 6 furlong was in 1:11 and change.

Certainly, the FOY was not ran faster then War Pass mile or speed rating.

Like Justin said, they race was full of disappointment.

I just don't understand how it could possibly be clocked at two different times, and the times aren't even close. What the hell is going on.

Now look at this...
Equibase just changed it. :24 :47^3 1:11^3 1:36^2 1:50
Those look the most logical times to me.

Does anyone know how and why this could happen? It is absurd.

I read an article earlier that said an outrider was in front of the gate and triped the clock sensor prior to when it was supposed to go off which screwed the times up.