(Insert clever War Pass-related title here)

whats teh deal with the times in the FOY and then the War pass race...did he really go the mile 2 full seconds faster? or was there a problem with the clockings..??

I timed the FOY myself, and got an opening quarter of 24 1/5 and a final time of 1:49 4/5. I did not time War Pass.

I don't know what to make of the timing issues.

Justin- If we get a speed horse in the derby say a J Be K or Ferragamo do you still feel as good about War Pass?

Sorry,
I have to totally disagree with your statment about Court Vision. It was a very decent run off the layoff. He fell off the pace (15 lenghts coming around the far turn) and then reared his head, swung wide and was driving. Yes, he still lost by more than he should have but the screws were not tightened on this horse to run big at first asking and remember what track you are talking. Even with the new surface Gulstream is moslty known as a speed favoring track, and sometimes you get merry-go-round races like these every now and then. Besides the two cheap speeds everyone but Court vision never improved their position. I'll take that as a very good race for him amd look for him to improve much more at a different track.

Do you know what Pletcher is going to do with Face the Cat?

Again, I am not saying he is going to win the Derby. I am saying he's clearly the leader of the division, and he's got the potential to be great.

Also, let's see if he stays on the front in his next two preps. Then we can discuss pace pressure.

But your point is well made.

Bobby,

I have to disagree with you that Court Vision's effort was "very good". Was it bad? No. Not at all. But it was not good, and he is going to have to show a lot more next out.

I can't wait to see J Be K in the Louisianna Derby. That race is loaded with talent.

Justin-
Don't give up yet on getting a fair price on War Pass. Hopefully (for us) Pyro will keep on winning and people will forget that he is o for 3 against WP and make him the favorite. (4/1 on War Pass would be like finding money in the street!)

War Pass would have toyed with that field in the FOY as easily as he did in the allowance race. As for Court Vision, what's this Bobby dude smoking? He's too slow to win the KY Derby. War Pass stays at the head of the class, but Fierce Wind gets my money in the future wager.

Justin,

I have to agree with your 'New Look' top ten list. There really hasn't been many real standout performances so far, at least not to warrant inclusion on a top ten list. With horses now racing with fewer and fewer starts it is getting harder to zero in on the 'true quality' performances.

At this time of the year many of these horses are still merely allowance winners at best and hardly merit inclusion on a Top Ten Derby List - they should prove their worth first!

What are your thought on Denis of Cork? He seems like he put in a Top 10 effort, rather easily to boot

Cdpotato4,

Agreed, the La. Derby should be strong.

eaoa89,

Here's the thing. If we DO see 4-1 or more on War Pass in the Derby, it's probably because he looked bad in the Wood. In that case, he may not be worth a play at any price.

longjdan,

Let's wait before we dismiss Court Vision. I still like him, but I need to see more.

tomtou,

Agreed.

CAMCHLOE,

I have to see Denis Of Cork race again.

Justin, yeah its always fun to see a potential superstar on the 3 year old scene, and War Pass could prove to be every bit as good as the last Breeders Cup Juvenile champion. I still think it would be hard to be a speed horse in a future wager, not knowing the post postion...etc. So maybe he is the next Hard Spun or maybe the next Smarty Jones. It will be fun to watch, and fun to try to find a way to beat him.

My Top 2 are PYRO, DENIS OF CORK, I have learned my lesson when betting speed in the Derby

Justin, I like Mike Barker, have also been a sap for impressive-looking speed horses in the past KDerbies - except the year that War Emblem won! (Remember, the colt that one of Bobby Baffert's owners purchased a month before the derby.) Several times I expected the derby to be more of a parade than a race (i.e., I'm ashamed to admit, BALTO STAR). So I am hesitatnt to predict this year's Derby will be a parade led by WAR PASS. I fear WAR PASS may be another shooting star that fades in the shadows of the Twin Spires at 6:32 p.m. on May 3, 2008. But I am haunted by Nick Z.'s warning quoted last week in the DRF, "I wouldn't bet against 'im!"

Justin, I agree for the most part. We'll see how El Gato Malo does. I've seen his races twice, in person, and like him a lot, but not willing to even go top 5 with him yet. War Pass and Pyro dominate so much I'd box those two today in an exacta, key them A/B in the tri and super, use them exclusively in my Pick threes and fours as well as on the Oaks/Derby double. I'm begging for a third or fourth horse to give me an angle. I picked up some "fun odds" on a few in Pool 1, but I know that might even be carzy wishes. Even after the Sham this week-end I don't think we'll have someone to compete with the likes of Pyro and War Pass. It's almost like they are a coupled entry for me andonly because I hope Pyro CAN turn the tables just to "save face"?????

Let's hope Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, or Tomcito can mix it up a bit. Or anyone else. Seems a tough group to get a triple crown winner out of for sure this year.

Lane

I saw an article that a nearly $1 million 3-year-old half-brother to Jazil and Rags to Riches just broke his maiden by 11 1/2 lengths at just under 9f on Saturday... in JAPAN. Casino Drive, by Mineshaft* out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour is nominated to the Triple Crown. He has long way to go, quite literally, but being commanding nearly 7 figures as a Keeneland Septermber yearling, as in before Rags became the first filly in over a century to win the Belmont, shows that the horse displayed some quality. He was the only US bred in the Kyoto Racecourse Maiden Special, but what are the odds that one mare out of the thousands and thousands bred each year could drop 3 Belmont winners IN A ROW?? Not to mention that they'd be by 3 different sires, one being a filly, and one starting in Japan.

Apparently not slowing down, Better Than Honour also has a 2YO colt and yearling colt both by Giant's Causeway.

*Casino Drive would actually be 3/4 to Rags since she and Mineshaft are both AP Indy's

Finally SOME sensible people. The only problem i have is that when people mention war pass they for some reason add Pyros name with it .. See i just did it too. Please stop doing this people, when you are 0 for 3 vs an opponent chances are your not as good of horse. I like elgato malo a bit as well he looked pretty impressive in his 3 starts. But any horse if the FOY is light years behind Pyro, so how far behind war pass does that make them?

Justin, do you know if there has been published a graded earning list to date.

I am extremely curious who actually qualifies for the K-Day.

If you know, please post.

Justin, this is going to be a shocker when I say this next statement.

But don't hammer me, please seek the answer for yourself.

I actually have the software to time the races directly from video coverage.

I agree with the times for the FOY. The race was ran in 1:49 4/5.

But here is where you might want to time it for yourself.

The same timing software was used in the War Pass race.

Hold your seat!, I actually ran the timing software 5 times to be consistent.

War Pass mile time was (drum roll) 1:35 Flat. 5 times I ran the timer and 5 times it stop in 1:35 flat.

Justin, I am shock at the reports issued to the horse racing public.

Well you please time the race yourself, and get back to me as to what you find.

If you find the figure as I have, do you know what this actually means, He ran a monster race under a hand ride.

Justin-
I don't know about you but I sure wish I would have gotten some of that 6/1 action in pool one right now instead of messing around with a bunch of small tickets on various horses (Except for Giant Moon- that's a 51/1 ticket that could be a nice'en. Wonder if they'll stay home to take on WP in the Wood or if they'll come here to Hawthorne where they'd probably have a chance to win)

Regarding the possibility of getting 4/1, as I said in a blog before everyone who gets to post rankings (I know, sore spot since they left you out) still has Pyro as number one, and if the betting public goes along with that, 4/1 isn't out of the question if Pyro wins a couple of more races and looks good doing it so that they make him the favorite.

-derbyme,

I saw the race. He looked pretty good to me. Came home quickly.

-barry

I vowed to not discuss graded earnings until at least March. Also, I will time War pass later today and report back.

eaoa89,

Yeah, if War Pass goes into the Derby undefeated, and I think he will, then 6-1 will definitely be better odds than you will get on Derby Day.

Hey Justin.

First of all i really enjoy reading your blog and more so that you answer and discuss handicaping with users.

Regarding War Pass i agree he is a monster and there is no doubting that, at the time he may be the best derby pick, but a triple crown with that pedigree looks very very tough. FOY i just dont think the derby winner will come out of there, some didnt fire and for Cool Coal Man i just dont have the feel for him.

Anyway how about some insight on some of those horse that have done nothing wrong yet but are still under Radar: Giant Moon (Hasnt faced much but looks good), Yankee Bravo (Again hasnt faced much but pulled of a nice win at the Cal Derby). And what about the peruvian sensation Tomcito any new on him, is he headed to the Florida Derby or Dubai?

Alot of key racing to be done yet. And a lot of maturing. A Top 10 at this point is unnecessary...When does Georgie Boy go next? Anxious to see him around two turns. And It might be wise to take note how Elysium Fields lost the lead and came back on Cool Coal Man in the FYO. He was getting to him at the wire.

Denis of Cork. Love everything this colt has done so far. He only has 3 races under him, but I thought he looked very professional in the Southwest. And I love the connections.

Justin - Where'd you see the Casino Drive race? I was surfing that internet and couldn't find it.

Barry - Your timing system is obviously about a second faster than the Gulfstream system. I.E. War Pass' 1:36+ on GP clocks is = to 1:35 on your clock. Thus the notion that time only matters in prison is once again the relevant factor. Speed figures try to take this into consideration, and to some extent are successful. Still, anyone who watches War Pass' allowance win, Pyro's Risen Star, or Court Vision's Remsen would know they were looking at a serious horse regardless of the final time/fractional times.

More important than time or figures at GP, is trip handicapping. Brisnet had 22 9f dirt races prior to the FOY with an average 8.2 horses entered in each. Of those, posts 1-3 accounted for roughly 75% of winners at the trip, with 4-7 (4 posts) accounting for the remainder. NO horse had won from post 8 or wider. (On average 1.2 posts). Additionally, horses taking the rail have won 35% of the time. Applied to the FOY, 1. Cool Coal Man finished 1st, 2. Golden Spikes was 5th, and Court Vision was 3rd. Watching the head on, Cool Coal Man,1st, was immediately followed by Z Humor, 4th, and Court Vision, 3rd, ALL TAKING THE RAIL, at least before swinging for home. Repeating for impact, 2 of the top 3 broke post 3 or in, 3 of the top 4 took the rail for most of the race.

Elysium Fields, on the other hand, went 5 wide into the turn, bumped with an anxious Monba, was at least 3 wide on the second turn before Coa dove to the rail as he had done in his Maiden win. Elysium Fields, still a bit green was hesitant to sneak through between Cool Coal Man and the rail. Once shifted to the outside, he took off and gained ground willingly. It looks like both the jockey and horse learned from the race, and should set them up for a huge effort in his next. He actually ran an almost impossible race for the course. Give him a post in the FL Derby and we may see him romp.

Alright fellas, settle down. War Pass was very impressive and is a great horse but we all know that the Cherokee Run in him will show up at the head of the stretch in the Derby. The Derby always has a fast pace. When they break out of the gate in the Derby the crowd will be going crazy, the horses are nervous, they break with urgency, the outside horses rush up for position before the first turn, etc... All these factors will contribute to a fast or at least quick pace. War Pass will have never seen that much pressure up front. Does anyone remember Bellamy Road? He looked like a world beater winning the Wood and many thought no one could match his speed. Well, you know what happened in the Derby.

You have to demand value in the Derby. No way you take War Pass at 5/1 or lower. Just like Justin said, if he is higher than 5/1 then something happened in the Wood. And if he is lower than 5/1 then there is no value with his breeding and running style in the Derby.

I for one feel it is way too early to call it a two horse race. I believe Court Vision ran a solid FOY, but was asked to move way too late. Don't forget Gomez is still feeling this one out, and he hadn't ran since November. This really was only a "prep" on a speed biased track.
In addition, we really have only seen CV take the lead at or near the wire. I would love to see him stay a little closer to the middle of the pack, and try to take the lead at the top of the stretch... Maybe those speed figures would be a little kinder. I am going to wait till the Fla. Derby before I write this one off.

Denis of Cork = Achilles of Troy

I hear ya Phil, bought time someone talks some sense. FOY is a toss, no way Anak Kanal and Monba are that bad. Two words describe this race. Track Bias

Love the Denis the Cork comment, that raced looked a lot better than it was...

Also, can't wait to see Georgie Boy go around two turns, if he can get the distance he could be the best in the West.

-timbercool,

I'm not sure if Tomcito is pointing for the Derby or the Belmont. As for Yankee Bravo, last I heard he'll run in the La. Derby.

-jharvat,

Georgie Boy goes in the San Felipe on 3/15.

-derbyme,

I think I saw Casino Drive's race on either The Blood-Horse website or Thoroughbred Times website.

There's a story on Casino Drive on bloodhorse.com today. They're pointing him to the Belmont, and plan to prep in either the Preakness or the Peter Pan. It will be interesting to see how he develops. Could be a good year for Mineshaft.

Justin,
I may be young but I think I have gotten a pretty good idea how this game of horse racing works. When I have watched all of War Pass' races, Yes I have been impressed, but am I ready to bow down to him? NO. This horse has NEVER NOT been on the lead. This is why I dont think he can win the derby. If I was Zito I use his next race to educate him and ease him off the pace. Surely there is a trainer out there that is smart enough to put a rabbit in the race to take him out of his game so he cant get a cake walk on the lead like he has in just about every race he has been in. This is why I am hoping and praying that my man J Be K wins the LA Derby or at least gets enough $$$ to get in the KY Derby because I actually think he is a better/faster horse than War Pass and will challenge him early to give others a chance. J Be K set the track record for 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga then wins a easy allowance in a hand ride while being geared down the last 1/16th at Fairgrounds. I dont think he is getting any respect and I think he might be able to steal the LA Derby if he can control his speed. I'll be taking him and hope he's around 8 to 10/1. What you think?

News from the Tomcito barn...i had lunch with the owners today (my cousins)....tomorrow thursday we will find out the follow up invite list for Dubai, UAE derby. If invited Tomcito will go there. If not it is Fla derby (maybe Holly Bull)...The thing is that Codigo de Honor, an argentinian horse that gave Tomcito his only defeat in a Grade I mile race was privately purchased by the Sheik to enter him in the UAE Derby and hence they may avoid inviting Tomcito in fears that the extra furlong will turn the tables on Codigo de Honor...and hence the wait..

Yesterday, Tomcito worked easily a mile in 1'42' a little slow we thought..Prado rode him and did not push him at all plus he got a little loose at the end...granted he has not run in 4 months and he needs to build his bottom, but the truth is that he has gained an extra 70 pounds...bottom line..he got fat ! he eats so much...

Vacation over for Tomcito...His training will be intensified these next 4 weeks to drop 30-50 pounds and prime him up for the upcoming races...his regular peruvian trainer has been in palm meadows for the last week....he will return to Peru tomorrow and will be back in FLA from the middle of march on to personally take care of Tomcito's work.

I will post again by the weekend and let you guys know where you will see Tomcito next.

On a separat note..I cant comprehend the ineptness of tracks showing improper times, are we in the 30's...

best to all.

J be K better than War pass? Who would ever say that as of today? I like the talk of Casino drive and tomcito! The crop of 3 year olds needs a boost. War pass's dosage has a 13 in the classic distance which is one of the higher in the field isnt the derby a classic distance? He runs the mile in 136 with ease and the mile and 1/16 in 142. Do you not think he can get another 18 seconds? I do.

Justin-

On behalf of myself, please thank the people who do the rankings on the site for not using War Pass first (and a special thanks to James Scully for using him 5th!!) With Pyro koolaid being dispensed all over the world, we may get our 4/1 after all! (Although there are 3/1 or even 5/2 plays that are overlays) Also, a quick question-Do you think if he gets stuck far outside in the draw he can overcome the post and win. (I kinda think he's that d... good, and that could be another factor that could drive our price up)

Nothing wrong with jumping on the War Pass bandwagon, except that it's very, very crowded. He's certainly in anyone's Top 5 but I have a sense there is a great deal of parity among the main contenders. That parity may or may not become evident in the major preps, especially if War Pass toys with weak fields in Tampa and beyond. As good and entertaining as last year's 3YO crop was, I wonder if this year's version is every bit their equal or better. I'd love to see War Pass and a couple of others go into the Derby undefeated. Looks like Denis of Cork is no longer flying under the radar based on most rankings.

Yo 89 - 4/1 in the Derby is like betting a 7/5 shot in a prep race. No horse alive worth 7/5!

There hasn't been one horse that has looked War Pass in the eye. He has had things his own way. He probably will go into the Derby undefeated - or at least I hope - that way he will take even more money. The list goes on....Bellamy Road, Balto Star, Keyed Entry, Lion Heart, etc...

Zito was quoted before the BC Juvenile that he was taking War Pass to the lead. That is all the horse knows. If any horse goes with him War Pass will have serious problems at the top of the stretch. A list of horses that could do him in are: Giant Moon, Eaton's Gift, J Be K, etc... A few others will be added as we get closer.

War Pass was really impressive in his 3 yr. old debut... but I don't want to concede the Derby to him just yet. He towers over the current contenders in Speed Beyers and class and is an exceptional horse. He'll have 3 preps (good in my opinion) but I'm leery of his running style though... always on the front end. Maybe he's a Spend A Buck, maybe he'll get an off track which will likely help, but front runners win the Derby something like 5% or less of the time. Skeptical of him right now.

Like what I've seen of Denis of Cork so far. I think his questionable foundation will hurt him though. That said, he seems to have that explosive far turn burst that you look for in a Derby horse. I thought his Southwest run was excellent. Let's see if he can duplicate it as the distances get longer.

The horse I like most for the Derby and see nothing about in the blogs is Colonel John. I'll need to see some higher Beyers in his next 2 races but I think he 's the real deal. Good 2 yr. old foundation, strong breeding, able to explode on the far turns, and finishes strong. Two negatives I'm willing to overlook at this point... he'll only have 2 preps and he'll likely only have run on synthetic surfaces.

Watch this guys's races and its hard not to be impressed. He gallops out like a beast. In the Cash Call... watch the beginning of the race and Colonel John gets slammed hard out of the gate. Alot of horses would have given it up right then. But he ran on well and finished a good second. I'm excited to see him run this weekend. Again, think he's the real deal, an awesome physical specimen and will like the 1 1/4 when he gets it.

Choppedliver,

I agree with Barbeach. I believe that J Be K is a faster horse than War Pass. He broke the track record at Saratoga for 5 1/2 f. He broke this record as a 2-year old! We still don't know if he can get the distance, as he is being stretched out for the first time in the Louisianna Derby. If he does get the distance though and finishes top 2 he will have enough earnings to run on the First Saturday in May. If this is the case, Zito better teach War Pass to rate or he will be murdered on the front end.

Slot,

Agreed on Colonel John being overlooked. Also, does anyone have any info on Salute the Sarge. Is he on his way back to the track?

I remember when everyone thought ANY GIVEN SATURDAY was good until he had drawn the 18 post..Remember he was 2nd by a nose to STREET SENSE in the Tampa Bay Derby..After doing some handicapping and finding out that only 1 horse has won from the 18 post i pitched him all together in my exotics..So could you be comfortable betting the undefeated and ((((((un rateable))))))favorite WAR PASS from way out there not a chance..The good thing is for me ill be rooting for my 2 closers PYRO and DENIS OF CORK because with WAR PASS in the race i can guarantee you even if he drew the 1 hole the DERBY goes the opening half in 45 and change...He is a great horse for sure but the first Saturday in May he will spit the bit in the stretch..Later on in the year he will be pointed to races a mile and under...

War Pass gets an easy lead each time because no one's dumb enough to try him early. Maybe he's 1 dimentional like Lion Heart. Lion Heart was 2nd in the Derby well in front of the 3rd place horse. Maybe he's more versatile like Smarty or Hard Spun. All 3 of those horses could go 10f off sheer talent. Hard Spun was bred for it, but Smary and Lion Heart sport very similar pedigrees to War Pass, as do Funny Cide and Peace Rules. Bottom line, speed is an advantage in giant fields where positioning is everything. Curlin, Empire Maker, and Afleet Alex got tough luck 3rds (or second) with only Street Sense finding the luck to get through. BTW, Curlin looked AWESOME today...

And I could be wrong, but didn't J be K come from off the pace in like a 5 horse field in his last?

And I don't think Saratoga runs 5.5f dirt races for older horses, do they?

Actually, he wired the field off a five month layoff. Bridgy had him in hand and restrained him all the way through the stretch. He completed 6 in 1:10 and change. It was his first WORKOUT after being transfered to A**muffin.

Aparently you can't spellout the name A**muffin when referring to Asmussen. The site just labeled my previous message as spam and it was not posted.

Curlin did look awesome winning very easy, and as for the horses you mentioned most were stalkers thats why im rooting for 2 deep closers like Street Sense last year.

Salute the Sarge starting working again in late January. He has 3 five furlong works up until now. I'd think he'll be running again soon... maybe the San Felipe is the target.

Justin, did you get a chance to time the War pass race ???? I still hold to the 1:35 flat mile time under a hand ride.

Opinion ?

I don't get anyone who post a comment about the colt J Be K.

Not that J Be K isn't fast or 2 for 2 (Undefeated).

But how can you compare the colt to War Pass who is also undefeated and faced the best of his generation.

War Pass is undefeated and the Breeders Cup Champ and the 2 year old champ. War Pass has never been headed in any race, because he is the best thus far!

War Pass has graded earning when J Be K has "NONE" ,"ZERO". What does it matter how fast you are if you don't have enough graded earnings to get the invite to "THE KENTUCKY DERBY."

Save you text until the horse "QUALIFIES". This is the Kentucky Derby site! We write about "winners and loser" who have qualified to the "BIG DANCE"

All else have to wait in line till their jockeys silks cross a finish line in a graded stakes.

Mr. Mitchell, with all due respect, these blogs are made for speculation, and if most everyone wasn't already crowning War Pass the Kentucky Derby champion, then people wouldn't be reaching for a solution. Anyone who follows the triple crown knows that there are no sure shots in the Derby with 20 horses running, many of whom never faced eachother. Some horses will step their game up when faced with stiffer competition, and some will completely buckle under the pressure and craze of Derby day.
I am not a fan of J Be K but certainly he interests me, particularly with the fact that (if eligible) he could throw off War Pass' race. If I was you I would worry about that happening, forget the handride, he may be fighting to run the whole way down the backstretch and have nothing left in the homestretch. Furthermore, I would not bet ANY horse at odds of less than 6/1.
I will give you credit that he is a great horse, but distance, running style, and past competition are three huge issues that have to be considered, not to mention his running style.

I agree with barry mitchell J be K to war pass, that should have been marked as spam and not aloud on this site.
Looking forward to the sham to see if colonel john or El gato can give me a little hope that this years derby wont be a one pony show. War pass bandwagon all the way in may.

Anti War Pass = spam???

Barry,

I'm going to give this a try. I've been having a problem posting on Justin's blog.

Take a look at what I posted about War Pass on Dan Shapiro's blog: Death, taxes and War Pass.

I think that you will like it.

J be K faster/better than Warpass = spam.

Pyro will run J B K into the ground!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I never said J Be K is better than War Pass. I said he is FASTER than War Pass. He would be a tough one to beat at 6f. It remains to be seen if he can get 2 turns, nevermind 1 1/4. I am very excited to see him stretch out though. We'll find out if he is a derby contender in the Louisianna Derby.

I'll say it one more time, so I can reinforce my statements to the ignorant readers.
I NEVER SAID J BE K IS BETTER THAN WAR PASS.
I SAID HE IS FASTER. AND I WILL STAND BY THIS.

Barry,

Your 1:35 is a Gulfstream 1:36. War Pass did what he did, we all saw it. Fantastic. But comparing times at the same track is hard enough without adjusting times, so let's take equibase's final clockings as about right. Adjust the FOY if you have to. see Randy Moss' article on NTRA.

On graded earnings, remember Curlin had $0 in graded earnings this time last year. In fact, he'd only run in one race. Rock Hard Ten had $0 a few years back, and actually he didn't get in, but he didn't run in a stakes until the Santa Anita Derby. If you can't hit the board in your preps you don't belong in the derby. That said, J Be K looks like some kind of sprinter, yet I still think there's a better chance than not that War Pass sits off of him or disposes of him and runs his race anyway.

El Gato Malo looks tough, as does the bred for synthetic Colonel John, but me thinks Reflect Times can make a big jump with blinkers and "new" surface. His turn off foot was too unbelievable for me to accept that 2 turns is his undoing.

Here what, I will Say about War Pass. I believe everything, everyone is saying, this is a front runner only. This is where I believe everyone is an error. I have watch th video of War Pass, and many of the shots gives clues to his abilities. In each race around the first turn and down the back stretch, the horse is in a complete hold.

The jockey is not fighting with the horse and the horse and jockey are racing as a pair. THIS IS HUGH, why! to answer Mr. Phil statement above, after 40+ years of experience, I have seen some of the great ones!. I have been around since Native Diver and Ancient Title day's at Hollywood Park. So, from experience my friend, you will find the great ones just simply out run the field.

Surely, don't take these statement as a crown of roses for War Pass. He a young inexperience three year old.

If you were here last year and read my blogs on greatness of thoroughbreds, which I projected for CURLIN at this exact stage of the game. You would understand the great ones have to win on both coast, and against there own class, and finally beat the best of the older horses. There is only a select few which qualifies. Street Sense last year champion at this stage of the game did not make the grade. So we are not there yet to crown anyone.

But, that my argument with your blog. Your taking a Allowance horse and trying to burn the reigning CHAMP!.

Yes the post should be SPAM! I can think of many horses which are faster the J Be K. In fact I dont even think he is the fastest horse from the Zayat Stables! Certainly they have not declare him to be!

Hold On! I am checking the Derby Watch list, let see what everyone is thinking about J Be K! Oh my! Z fortune is from the same stable and the same trainer is rated ahead of him.

Aren't they suppose to run in the same race, the Louisiana Derby.

What do you think, is he a pacesetter for Z fortune. Oh my! the horse has not even ran a beyers in the 100's yet and that is sprinting. How long will he run next to War Pass down the back stretch before caving in?

If I reading this correct, his first start was a 99 beyers, the second was an allowance win at 91. We call that regression "My Friend"
Not moving forward.

These two should not be compared in any "SPECULATION" as you call it before!

Moving forward. My clocking of the War Pass race was on the Gulfstream time clocking.

War Pass ran 1:35 for the mile, actually 1:34 4/5 by my stopwatch! Time the video here on this site. Then time the video of the FOY. You will see the timing is correct for the FOY in 1:49 4/5. Justin is completely right, they came home extremely fast in the FOY. But the video timing is correct! The same rule applies to the War Pass race. The time is 1:34 4/5. I rounded to 1:35 for any variance error.

You can also time the Pyro race and see the clocking is correct as the track timing from the video. Therefore, there is no lag of video time to race time.

SEE FOR YOURSELF CONCERNING THE WAR PASS RACE TIME!

The Sham, El Gato Malo easily

I started posting here because there seem to be alot of intelligent and well thought out opinions here, some more realistic than others, but you, Barry, seem to take it to an unfriendly level.

All that info is very interesting, but it doesn't concern me. In fact, I was simply arguing that anyone can post their opinions as it pertains to the topic set by Justin Dew, not Barry Mitchell. I didn't know you could tell people what they could and could not post, and yes you are crowning War Pass champion already. Yes he is fast, we get it, but there will be three or four other realistic shots in the Derby, "my friend".

And, for the record, I am NOT a fan of J Be K, but do believe people are entitled to mention his name if they so choose to do so. If you would like to eliminate some horses that I do believe are contenders, then tell me what you think about Pyro and Court Visions chances "my friend". And I apologize to all others who have to read about us going back and forth, I will try to stick to the topic at hand from now on.

Phil if you want to make money you just keep watching PYRO and DENIS OF CORK ....On the first saturday in May when they hit the half in 45 WAR PASS will fade like an old shirt...Then you will see my 2 deep closers blow by the whole field!! :)

Oh yea STREET SENSE paid the way for my family last year a week in Cancun, i hope to return this year for free as well YIPPIEEEEE

Okay WAR OVER! I give, can we just be friends. See I am a nice guy!

Mike I remember your vacation trip! WONDERFUL, that what horse racing is all about.

Phil , keep posting my friend. That what the BLOG is all about.

I like you, keep up the good work. Can I nick name you the "Diplomat"

Everyone have a great weekend at the race.

Justin, your pick in the Sham Stakes is ?

I wonder if anyone here remember who SHAM was and what year the colt ran and against whom?

Answer: on my next blog post! Don't cheat anyone, take a guest?

Oh almost forgot Phil to answer your question,

I like Court Vision in the FOY, and I still like him in the Florida Derby.

I am really hoping for 8-1 odds, but I don't think I will get it, more like 3-1.

Blackberry Road (10-1)and Tale of Ekati (4-1) in the Louisiana Derby, Pyro (1-2)and Z Fortune (3-1)to follow.

I am really high on Blackberry Road. I believe the horse best running is with the greater distances. The 1 1/16 is a major problem because the horse has to move to soon for contention. But the horse is a stayer and has a classic turn of foot.

Don't be surprise by the upset! He never had a clear race to the wire, and finds himself always within one lengths of the lead in the stretch without the use of the whip. That means he has never been asked to run thus far! He is the classic horse, plus I bet by the name only! BLACKBERRY ROAD, got to love it!

Have a good week end everyone!

I also see potential in Blackberry Road. He has yet to have a good trip. I am a little concerned by this seeing as there will be 19 others on derby day. It is quite possible this colt has trouble down the stretch.

As for the Sham - Reflect Times at a good price

It may be tough but I say Colonel John in the Sham. Yes, even with El Gato Malo in there and no apparent speed. I guess I'm the only Colonel John fan around... so be it.

Barry,
I am not real sure what you are trying to get at. You say you "Street Sense last year champion at this stage of the game did not make the grade." ??? he was the reigning champ and won the Derby. You criticize me for picking a horse (J Be K) who has been out twice, once a record breaking performance in his first start, then an easy allowance (beyer aside, he could have gone 1:09 and change if shown the whip) when you say "which I projected for CURLIN at this exact stage of the game." Sounds like the same kind of prediction. Horse with very few starts, who looks to have lots of talent that hasnt been challenged yet. Am I saying J Be K will win the Derby right now? No. But to say that War Pass, defending Champ (who will be headed if facing J Be K) is by far the best, and that J Be K should be spam, be serious. He may not be a classic distance horse but talent wise from what I have seen so far has to be in the same conversation. We will see in the LA Derby if he can get the distance, if he cant I will shut my mouth about him in the Derby and just bet on him in the sprints that his smart trainer will put him in. But every young horse starts out as a sprinter and gets his chance to stretch his speed, nows his chance.

Oh yea, and when you said you cant find J Be K on any Top DERBY Contender List, Go to drf.com and on the right side of the page click on Derby watch, then click on the PDF file that Jay PRivman and Mike Watchmaker list every weekend. J Be K is listed above some noteworthy Contenders according to them such as: Monba, Visionaire, BLACKBERRY ROAD, Z Humor, and Bob Black Jack. So it looks like some reporters with credibility think he's got talent.

As for Z fortune, he is not in the LA Derby, but the Rebel instead. And do you really think that if they thought that highly of Z Fortune they would put him in NEW YORK BRED races to start his career, COME ON. They clearly didnt think he was going to be much but came around. J Be K started with Baffert at SARATOGA the cream of the crop, and would still be with baffert if it wasnt for the whole synthetic issue at Santa Anita. If J Be K is a pacesetter for anyone its Pyro.
Just trying to back up my supposed SPAM that I put on here earlier, and trying to throw a Curlin type horse a this point in the year to get some conversation going but people are so caught up on War Pass's balls that they wont look elsewhere. Good luck to all, and I would like to here what Justin thought.

Thanks Barry, my sentiments exactly, it's nice to be welcomed here. I have to admit that I am a work in progress as far as handicapping goes, but I am always looking for tips, insight, etc...
With that being said, I really tried to spin this race a little, but I couldn't find a reason for El Gato Malo to falter. Colonel John has a little rust (1st outing this year), and no experience on this track, whereas EGM loves it there. I think a different track with the same layoff (and more pace would help), this could be reversed. Then I have to believe Coast Guard for third, there just is no depth in this field.

In the Sham im going with the El Gato even though his last race was a suicide up front he still looks the best of this group...I have seen a few horses from Colonel Johns last race come out and run some clunkers like Monba and Into Mischief thats never a good sign..

No more comments concerning J Be K, I am retired. I did not know the Z Fortune camp elected to leave town.

Interesting test for Denis of Cork coming from Z Fortune, if DOC wins, I will have to think highly of the colt as Mac is extremely high on him.

I am at the track trying to make a bet, Don't make me call security!!! barbeach

I am basking in the California Sunshine. Mac is here, Justin went for the beer and the burgers he owes!

EL GATO MALO easy winner. Maybe win the Santa Anita Derby and possibly shipping two or three undefeated horses heading to the Kentucky Derby. It would be nice to see War Pass vs. El Gato Malo vs. Denis of Cork (East vs. West vs. MidWest).

Okay wake me, I been dreaming. Georgie Boy ruins the record for El Gato Malo one day soon and Z Fortune puts an end to the Denis of Cork media. Ouch!

Blackberry Road puts it to Pyro or Tale of Ekati

Sorry Mike, I can smell a second place finisher

Bring on the comments, I am a big boy with big pockets.

Mike can I borrow $20.00 from last week winnings.

and what about last year vacation trip, where is my postcard!

Im pretty sure that SHAM got drilled by SECRETARIAT in the Belmont Stakes.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS4f6wiQJh4

Phil,

Coast Guard is going to scratch. I think he is headed for the El Camino Real

Reflect Times to win with first time blinkers, he will be closer to the pace

Great Mike, Sham was the best west hope going into the Kentucky Derby.

If it was not the extraordinary effort from Secretariat, Sham would have capture the Derby and the Preakness stake in record times.

Sham was a excellent thoroughbred. The Belmont was simply two much for him as he pushed Secretariat to the far turn before fading.

Great horses are made by their competition. Sham PUSH Secretariat to greatness.

What a Sham or should i say scam, these stakes races get goofier every week...,The half goes in 50 i know Arabians who go in 51 If thats the best California has to offer ill tell you it will be another weak Santa Anita Derby like last year. I wouldnt use any of those horses on my ticket racing on these synthetic surfaces out west.....Atleast the 2 horses im rooting for PYRO AND DENIS OF CORK both have won at Churchill that alone is huge...

Barry i told you last time El Gato Malo ran he was set up with a suicide race upfront when he ran over those 2 he looked like Secretariat just as i suspected he lost...What did i do i still bet him in my doubles lol :) I thought he could win on class alone but when u go 6 panels in 1:14 like a bunch a donkeys from Penn National you will have that..

Mike,

Agreed. I don't like any from the West. We'll see if Georgie Boy can stretch out in the San Felipe. If not, I will toss them all.

Well let's see what kind of Beyer they give Colonel John for the Sham. So he went in 1:50 or 150:1 off of a dawdling pace. He came home in 35.80 and about 23.90 or 24 flat for the last quarter. Before you write him off doesn't this pace, race, surface remind anyone of anything?... (besides the fact that you all think these West Coasters are a bunch of nags)... yeah, last year's Bluegrass I think it was. And when they all ran so painfully slow on synthetic for the first part of the race and flew home like grass horses... I heard the same type of sniping. And who came out of that bunch but the Derby winner... Street Sense. Let's hope the Santa Anita Derby has a more representative field (like that'll happen) but this first out effort by Colonal John and El Gata Malo wasn't as bad as you all say.

Yea Street Sense was a 15 length breeders cup winner thats a little different.

And the polytrack at Keeneland is not the same surface as Santa Anita.

As a matter of fact, it is completely different. Keeneland favors closers and kills front runners. That is why nobody wanted the lead in the Bluegrass.

Santa Anita on the other hand, loves speed. Horses are running :22 :44 1:08 and winning at 7f and 1m. I'm sorry but that race was a joke. Someone should have gone out to the lead.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot the major difference between the two surfaces.
Kenneland has an ALL WEATHER TRACK
Santa Anita has a ONLY RUN WHEN IT'S AT LEAST 70 AND SUNNY TRACK

bwahahahahahah so true i think Santa Anita has canceled more days then they have ran..

Z Fortune started in NY statebred races because he is a NY bred, most likely. I wouldn't read too much into that. The only horse to beat him is Pyro, running the best race of his career. I hope the latest hype machine stays focued on Denis of Cork through this weekend as well as on the 15th as well. Garrett Gomez will ride Z Fortune in the Kentucky Derby.

so now Denis of Cork is dukcing Z Fortune...