That's more like it!

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Colonel John marches on in Sham: (Photo by: Benoit)Colonel John marches on in Sham: (Photo by: Benoit)

The pace was not swift. In fact, it was slow.

The final time was nothing about which to brag.

The overall quality of the field can probably not be considered strong.

The race was run over a substance that has been confounding trainers, owners, bettors and fans for quite a while.

And my guess is that the Beyer Speed Figure will not be eye-catching.

But for some reason, I have a feeling that both Colonel John and El Gato Malo are going to have a real impact on the Kentucky Derby this year, and I am basing this feeling solely on what my eyes told me while viewing the Sham Stakes on Saturday.

I was starting to think that we were headed to a match race between Pyro and War Pass on Derby Day. No one had seemed to want to step up and show that they deserved to be considered among the elite of this bunch. Yeah, I know Denis of Cork and Cool Coal Man looked good doing what they did. But as far as I’m concerned, the jury is still out on them. Although the jury is leaning heavily in favor of ruling “Top Derby Contender” for both. We’ll call it 10-2 after one jury vote, know what I mean?

As for “The Colonel” and “The Cat”, the same jury had yet to render a verdict on them as well before Saturday. In the eyes of some, Colonel John and El Gato Malo probably still have much to prove. Again, on paper, the race isn’t going to look all that smashing. But to the eye (at least to my eye), the efforts put forth by both Derby hopefuls were strong, promising, and, to some degree, refreshing. As I have said previously, I haven’t been all that impressed by much on the Derby Trail this year. And while some will undoubtedly argue that I was impressed to easily in this case, the efforts put forth by Colonel John and El Gato Malo left me with the impression they are both going to have a say on the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. Would I feel the same way in a different year, where perhaps the competition ran deeper? Maybe not. But this isn’t a different year. This is this year. And now we have added two more names to the list of serious Derby win candidates.

At least that’s how my eyes see it.

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ryanmoseley

03/02/2008 12:27 pm

I agree with you Justin! My sentiments exactly. My 5 horse superfecta box for the derby is as follows: War Pass, Pyro, Colonel John, El Gato Malo and either Elysium Fields or Blackberry Road. Maybe I'll play em both.

Cdpotato4

03/02/2008 12:49 pm

Justin,

I am going to have to disagree with you. They went :25 :50 1:14^2 1:38^1 1:50^1. This is not like the FOY where times were questionable. I watched them walk a full 6 or 7f. I sure hope they can come home in :24 after that. THE TRACK RECORD IS 1:45^3 BY GO BETWEEN IN JANUARY.

The first race of the day MSW went :24 :49 1:13^3 1:37^3 1:44 for 1 1/16m. They were no less "visually impressive" than the Colonel and the Cat.

Today's third at Gulfstream could turn out to be a more impressive performance by three year old colts. Alaazo squares off against the likes of Bordeaux Bandit, Sleuse, and Hey Burn. I'm guessing :24^1 :48^2 1:13^2 1:38^1 1:50^3. The track record is 1:47^4 by Brass Hat in '06.

justindew

03/02/2008 12:57 pm

Cdpotato4,

You may end up being correct. But while the fractions weren't fast early, they came home in under 12 seconds. So at least there's something positive in the fractions. And in my opinion, they just looked good.

Again, the bar isn't exactly set super-high this year.

slot33

03/02/2008 1:02 pm

Wow Justin, couldn't agree with you more. Do think Colonel John and El Gato Malo deserve to be in the top contenders for the Derby considering the crop this year. That said, and I'm a huge Colonel John fan, I acknowledge that War Pass and Pyro stand a cut above in this year's crop... just look at the Beyers. But if Colonel John can post a 100+ Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby... then I say he's a REAL factor in the KD. What I like about him best is the way he finishes his races... strong... and gallops out... strong. Just take a look at his BRIS Late Pace ratings for all of his races. To me, they spell Derby contender. But I'd REALLY like to see a higher Beyer from this guy to seal the deal.

mike barker

03/02/2008 2:22 pm

Very true they need to step up there beyers in order to compete at a 1 1/4 ...When you go 49.50 at the half and 1:14 n change and your dead last in the stretch and you win by 2 lengths in a hand ride without even going to the stick like PYRO thats unbelieveable and thats whats gonna win the Derby...How about Heyburn today where did this horse come from, talk about taking 5 months off and turning a corner with this horse..He just won again for fun in another hand ride...His figures look good also a 101 last out when he won by 15...

hossgnat

03/02/2008 3:08 pm

I really have no idea how to evaluate the Cali 3YOs taking turns beating each other on synthetic. El Gato Malo might still be the best of the bunch, although his race yesterday leaves many doubts. I'll let the West Coasters beat me in the Derby. Hope that several will continue to gain support among the pundits and at the betting windows.

cherishp

03/02/2008 3:54 pm

This was by far the most exciting prep race I've seen yet this year! I couldn't agree with you more that these 2 are going to be serious contenders this year. Regardless of pace, they both displayed the ability to handle the distance and rise to the challenge. Though El Gato Malo didn't get the best trip, he closed the gap in the last stretch like a true champion who would have only benefited from another 1/8 of a mile. And Colonel John responded well under Gomez when urged to hold off the challenger. They both ran the last stretch like they wanted the win. That's the kind of energy and determination that wins a Kentucky Derby. Period.

mike barker

03/02/2008 4:11 pm

That must be the only race you have seen??????? It was two 4-5 shots in a 5 horse field are you kidding me, maybe you should go back and watch the RISEN STAR...

CAMCHLOE

03/02/2008 4:47 pm

every year people say lasts year's crop of 3YO's was better. i like Denis of Cork, seems to run when asked and will eat alot of ground. The year westpoint wins the derby, i stop watching races forever, they are scam artists that don't derserve the glory

justindew

03/02/2008 4:52 pm

(The opinions expressed in the comment section of this blog do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Churchill Downs Inc., KentuckyDerby.com, or Justin Dew. Unless of course the comment is left BY Justin Dew. In that case, the opinion reflects my opinion for the time being.)

jcfish

03/02/2008 7:41 pm

The race was exciting because both horses closed well. Gato seems to have the ability and Colonel John the smarts. That being said, if El Gato Malo finds the trip rough in a field of five, the Derby will probably leave him feeling tortured. Still his speed is real.

I may be wrong but Colonel John seems like one of those "professional" types who finishes somewhere between six and ten in the Derby.

warner13

03/02/2008 8:39 pm

No Way Justin. Save your money. Neither of these horses will show up anywhere near the money on D-Day. I question whether either of these horses will even print a 3 digit Beyer figure by the first Saturday in May.

Geronimo2123

03/03/2008 7:28 am

I agree with Justin. I said the same thing over at Illman's Formblog.

These 2 came home in under 12 seconds off of a very moderate pace. The figures say that Colonel John did it in 11.8 seconds. EGM was 1-1/2 lengths behind at the call. That means he made up a full length on CJ in the final furlong, as he lost by 1/2 length. Which translates to between 11.2 and 11.3 seconds for the final furlong. That equals Pyro's 11.2 final furlong in the Risen Star, except that this was a half furlong longer.

The Sham, like the Risen Star, had very slow fractions which made it hard to run a fast time no matter how fast they were closing at the end. And they were hauling it big-time.

Col. John had a great trip, Gomez knew to get up those crawling fractions in front and to the outside of EGM. Flores still thought he was running in the San Rafael. He pulled EGM up after he ran up to second early on. Big mistake to pull up and back off of that slow pace. Like CJ's trainer and Jay Privman said, if Flores had not put himself in a situation to get pinned back, and actually had put EGM in a position to get a good jump, the race might have been closer or even different.

But I do believe that these 2 horses will be a factor in the SA Derby, and at CD.
I guess you can only set crawling fractions and come home strong and be a Derby contender at the Fair Grounds, or so the detractors would have you believe.

Geronimo2123

03/03/2008 7:50 am

Also, regarding El Gato Malo having traffic problems in a 5 horse field.
Had Flores simply used the horse's tactical speed, he would have been where Col. John ended up well before Gomez got CJ there. Why Flores yanked EGM off that slow pace is a mystery. But it may have been the trainer. Remember, Dollase trains Monterey Jazz as well, the horse that took off like a shot after a moderate opening quarter and ran like he was in a 5 furlong sprint. Of course, he died in the stretch.

Not every closer or stalker needs to be raced every time like they are Whirlaway. Even Borel had the sense to get Steet Sense right up on slow, small fields over the summer. You do not pull a closer off of a slow pace. You get him as forward as possible to save ground because the pace horse will still have steam in the stretch and will not come back at all, or not as much. You have to go up and catch them.

BTW, Alaazo's allowance race, in which he finished dead last at Gulfstream Park, was 9 panels run in 1:52 and change. Which makes the Sham appear like the Indy 500. Nice race by Hey Byrn and even Wonder Mon (2nd). Hey Byrn is from Calder, and was soundly beaten by the mighty Wise Answer every time they raced as 2 year olds (even at routes).

ajkreider

03/03/2008 8:51 am

I agree that it looked much better than the FOY, but . . . .

As others have said, there were a couple of good reasons why they limped home in the FOY. By Moss' timing, they went 6F FOUR seconds faster in Hallandale. There was a 12 horse field in Florida and 5 in Cali. And importantly, the high temperature for FOY day was 88 - for the Sham, it was 61.

Do you think running 4 seconds faster early when it's 25+ degrees hotter will affect your last 1/8th?

jjjimmyjam9

03/03/2008 10:52 am

These are 2 nice horses. But just add them to the list of potential Derby horses. Neither of them beat a darn thing in this race. They came home fast but so did Pyro.

However, more credit goes to Pyro for running on dirt and racing in a 14 horse field. Pyro ate all the dirt, had a bad trip, came rolling late and was wrapped up before the wire. Gato and John were both all out to get to the wire.

These California races are a joke. They have 6 and 7 horse fields in Graded Stakes races, then 2 horses scratch leaving 5 horse fields. Pitiful!!!! And that is the norm out there.

Once these horses come East and run on real dirt, race in 10 to 14 horse fields and show they can over come some trouble - then I might start talking like they are top contenders.

mike barker

03/03/2008 11:15 am

You couldnt of said it any better Jimmy

TOMCITO
Activity date 03-03-2008
Track Palm Meadows
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 Furlongs
Workout type Handily
Workout time 1:00.40
Track condition Fast

barryrmitchell

03/03/2008 12:20 pm

Repeat posting from Mac's blog, sorry Justin, West Coast blog comes first when commenting on west coast horses.

I have been reading various comments concerning race tactic's and how the jockey's should handle their colts and the slow pace of 1:14 is below competitive racing.

From a racing fans chair in the corner of thoroughbred racing world. I would say, you are all right to question what just occurred!

But on the other hand. Here is the reality, The horse have been training since the better part of their two-year old career to engage in the running of the race, just off the pace. Better known as come from behind.

Any trainer/owner knowns you don't train your athlete one way and ask them to perform another. This is a sure way of un-train your horse, very quickly!

Therefore, you run your horse the same way, all day, in each race. This is call consistency and your best way to win each day, while racing at the track.

After years of watching, betting, and walking the back stretch in the stables area with thoroughbreds, trainers and owners, you see the preparation put into the colts and fillies.

Thoroughbreds, when they learn what racing is all about (better known as "do what the trainer has taught you")

Thoroughbred simply are following the lesson learn. I have seen horse get pushed to the lead and finish last 20 lengths out as the favorite, because the racing style was change to benefit the race devoid of speed.

The race was ran remarkably well, and all horses kept to their training perfectly.

Both colts are rated 4-5 on my derby list after this performance. They both have learn their morning lesson well.

Colonel John appears to have been taught to race closer to the pace since his Cash Call loss. It was clear from the loss, it was due to running to far behind the pacesetters (Into Mischief), El Gato Malo is completely opposite, I agree with the writer here (Geronimo2123), but the horse is not a true 1 1/4 horse classic horses.

If EGM has to race on the front end (which he could as any thoroughbred). EGM will likely tire from pressing the pace. So EGM has been train to make one run to the wire 2f out. Street Sense had a 4f out move! as well as Curlin, Most great one's do!

The only difference in the Sham, was training and horses character. Based on what they have learn, the winner was Colonel John, because of racing position. Not jockey's racing tactics. The LITTLE delay by EGM in the stretch, should have been overcame if the talents was there to do so. Losing ground is normal for horse racing. I'm sure CJ was waiting on the turn a little longer than normal as well.

It not always the most talented horse which get the money in distance races, but the most well instructed horse, the race make up itself, the horse character when engaged and the size of the horse nose on the wire.

Character points went to Colonel John (Tiznow class), Both colts showed their morning training very well. They were extremely professional at work in the Sham stakes.

Justin, I believe this is why the race seems so appealing and it is!

derbyme

03/03/2008 1:21 pm

You can't look too much into time at Santa Anita or 9f races with big fields at Gulfstream. Santa Anita has had 2 different tracks this year, one favoring speed, and one running like turf. Both El Gato Malo and Colonel John looked super, and displayed versatility. Say what you want about final times, they could not have come home faster. Ditto Pyro. You can't trust 9f races at Gulfstream because the rail at least doubles a horses chances. (CCM, Court Vision, and Z Humor all took the rail and finished 1, 3,4). No horse has won from post 8 or wider there this year in a 9f dirt race. Even 1 turn races... Yesterday a 50-1 shot wired from the rail, Bsharp looked much the best, but again, took the rail while a game game game face hooked wide the whole way. This has been such an odd prep year so far. You can't trust the clock at SA... or GP sometimes... and you can't trust your eyes at GP without imagining an invisible bias. It's hard to trust figues because of slow paces, and it's hard to guage trip because of slow paces, or ridiculously fast paces like the Southwest. Pedigrees have been less of an indicator for years, and with so many preps on poly, the questions only multiply. I used to love to play the angle of 100+ beyer & win or equivalent of at 9f. Gave you War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty, Afleet Alex (lost), Barbaro, and last year Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin. Fast enough for long enough. This year... the figures are skewed because of pace scenarios, so I may have to adjust, as will every handicapper out there as every proven angle is more of a guess now. Good luck.

barbeach

03/03/2008 2:11 pm

Barry,
I will have to disagree with you. The reason CJ was so close to the lead was because the pace was so slow. Do you think if he would have come back in the San Rafael, EGM's last race, that he would have been close to the 1:08 pace that they ran? No. If he had a smart jockey he would have been pulled off of that pace to be about where EGM was ready to pounce when the leaaders got tired.

Thing is horses have to adapt to the way the race is going to be run, size of the field, and the track bias. Perfect example, Street Sense was a closer (obviously). When he ran in the Jim Dandy or Travers not sure which one, it was a small field and NOBODY was coming from the clouds to win two turn races at Saratoga last summer. It seems like the top four finishers were that way the whole way around. But in this race Street Sense was way way closer to the pace then he had been before. If he hadnt been Grasshopper would have gotten the jump on him and probably would have beaten him. Same thing happened in the race at Turfway last year when Hard Spun beat Street Sense. Very small field and street sense had to be closer than normal. This threw him off his game and Hard Spun gets first jump and wins. Sometimes when a horse gets so used to running a certain style it can hurt them when they try to adjust, but the great ones can overcome this when it counts.

I think this was the case with EGM. He likes to be about 5 or so lengths out of it but had to be closer because if he wasnt CJ would have gotten an even better jump on him. Gomez rode a great race on CJ and got the jump first. I think this was a good experience for EGM and a bigger field will help him. Dont think he is the cream of the crop but a good education for him.

slot33

03/03/2008 3:44 pm

Derby,

You make some good points. One of my favorite factors to consider for a Derby win is a 100+ Beyer at 1 1/8 as a 3 yr. old. Unless some of these raise the bar in their last Derby preps... we could be left with few that meet this. What I can't believe is that Colonel John got an 86 Beyer, an 86, for the Sham!? I really feel this guy is an excellent horse, will run on dirt, like 1 1/4. My hesitancy before the Sham was the 2 prep at 3 rule which I've begun to reconsider in this new age of Derby racing. But an 86! Do my eyes deceive me? Are Colonel John and El Gato Malo medium level plodders that won't impact the Derby? Now I have my doubts about EGM mainly because of breeding and I doubt he's a true 1 1/4 horse. Don't get me wrong... I think he is an excellent horse that will likely be more competitive from 1 - 1 1/16. Just my opinion. Colonel John is a different story. I expect him to run well in the Santa Anita Derby and the KD. I still look at all of his races in total and he looks solid. Always gives a STRONG effort in the stretch. HAS been tested in big fields. And for his first start back that final 3/8 in 35.80 and last quarter in 23.90 aren't too shabby in the first crack at a 1 1/8. I actually e-mailed Steve Romans after the race and got a reply. He said the track was playing very slow at SA on Saturday. At least 5 lengths slow compared to Par. I'm hoping the Colonel will post a large Beyer in the SA Derby. But if he exceeds 100+ in the SA then we'll have other questions. Such as he took too great a leap in Beyer prior to the big race... and on and on. I'm still high on CJ and will wait patiently for the SA Derby. And hope to see some other worthy performances in the meantime that identify true contenders.

jharvat

03/03/2008 4:57 pm

Five horse field of 3 year olds on a synthetic surface. You learn nothing from that race. Except three other horses did not belong and it should have been billed as a match race. In which case, you still would have learned nothing. Joke. Plenty of prep races left to focus on over that piece.

barryrmitchell

03/04/2008 4:41 am

Very good article Mike. Thanks

ryanmoseley

03/04/2008 10:09 am

I want to know what you guys think about Tomcito. He's the son of Street Cry who beat 3 year olds at a mile and a quarter and a mile and a half in peru in October. His connections are either pointing him for the Florida Derby pr the UAE Derby. He is currently in the US and has some bullet works at 3 and 4 furlongs so far. He's a massive colt standing over 17 hands. I've seen his races on youtube and he looks to be something special. He's an unknown quantity for sure but extremely exciting. As a big Street Sense fan I'm hoping he can show up out of nowhere and take the roses. A Bold Forbes kinda thing.

ryanmoseley

03/04/2008 10:10 am

First sentence above should end "as a 2 year old!!"

Cdpotato4

03/04/2008 10:33 am

I am sick of hearing about this Tomcito horse. Can we just wait until he races against quality U.S. 3-YEAR OLDS. Why does everyone want to crown this horse as the Derby Winner.

I'll say it again. Please can we just wait.

When was the last time a horse raced in Peru as a 2-year old and went on to win the derby. When was the last time a derby winner raced in Peru period.

Come on guys. Enough already.

And YES I have watched his races on youtube and NO I am not overly impressed and excited.

Enough.

barryrmitchell

03/04/2008 12:12 pm

I agree Mr. Potato!!!!, but as I was lamb blasted for the same principal concerning J Be K. I am sure your going to get the same treatment!

I also only want to talk about who has qualified for the Big Dance. But I was inform, this blog is for the opinion of everyone for any horse discussion.

Somewhere the list of probables for the Kentucky Derby out ways the list of who has qualified.

I guess that HORSE TALK MY FRIEND.

Read between the lines, you will get the picture.

Anyway, on the article link above given by Mike, Tomcito drilled 46 for 4 furlongs. Good Move, So much politics surrounding the colt. Invitation to Dubai or race in the Florida Derby.

I agree, enough said, because the horse has yet to race somewhere, but picking your spot in the U.S. is crazy! Hype over Form! No way! I care more and more less for the discussion. Put up or shut up to their camp! Playing games to sale the horse is not horse racing. If you really think the horse is all that and more, do as the Curlin camp has done "DO NOT SALE"

Take your chances on the field of play, and roll the dice! Money is in the breeding "Right"

Everyone knows my position on qualification to the Derby. Throw out all the two year old form and earnings. If you don't qualify by running in the three year old races, you don't have a ticket. Award the two year old, the two year old awards, and leave the three year old to the three year olds.

ONLY GRADED EARNINGS PRODUCE DURING THE THREE YEAR OLD SEASON "COUNTS"

This will make the owner and trainers live up to their obligation to the sport!

Don't run, won't run. SIMPLE!

mike barker

03/04/2008 1:02 pm

I wonder if Calvin has lost the mounts on Black Berry Rd and Denis Of Cork what do you guys think? I think hes on Stevil this weekend.

jharvat

03/04/2008 1:03 pm

You can have Pyro, War Pass, Colonel John. Whoever. Just give me Court Vision. And dont let the Fountain of Youth fool you. He ran third, and chewed up a lot of ground to get there. And the pace wasnt exactly conducive to his running style. He has the 2 year foundation, race distance seasoning (every race except one at a mile or over), and has the trainer in Mott. Always closes ground in his races. Last, stellar breeding. Take one look at it and dont tell me that horse is not perfectly bred for the Derby. Mott will have this horse ready to roll on Derby Day.

Cdpotato4

03/04/2008 2:24 pm

Mike,

I agree. Borel has lost his mounts.

jharvat,

How do you know how fast the pace was in the FOY?!?! You seem convinced that it was slow, I am not sure there is evidence one way or the other. Either way, Court Vision was soundly beaten by Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields.

mike barker

03/04/2008 2:46 pm

I have always liked Court Vision especially the Remsen, i just wish he would put up a good speed #..

mike barker

03/04/2008 3:21 pm

On another note how about the 4 horse field for the Louisiana Oaks...The future pools open Thursday and after Indian Blessing steals that race Saturday everyone one and there brother will be going to the windows to bet her in Pool 2...In my opinion she cant get 1 1/8 in the Oaks so go to the windows and bet Country Star...She will be prepping in the April 7 Ashland at Keeneland and when she wins that your only gonna get 2-1 on her...I got her in pool 1 at $11.80 ill bet in pool 2 she will be like 6-1 maybe 7-1.....Good Luck

cherishp

03/04/2008 5:01 pm

Back on the subject of the original blog posting re: the Sham...in response to Mike Barker's comment about the Risen Star - do you think that race was somehow more impressive than the Sham because there were more horses? He may have beaten 11 other horses, but who did he really beat? Z Fortune, Visionaire...not impressed. He wasn't even challenged in that race, and he ran a measely 90 beyer. Nothing to brag about yet...he is good, but I haven't seen anything in his 3YO career yet to convince me that he is great. That said, I am looking forward to seeing what he does this weekend.

I am not saying that CJ or EGM have really proven themselves as champions yet either, mind you (although EGM's win in the San Rafael was stunning). My point about the Sham was just that it is exciting to see a couple of other contenders with the spirit of winners step up to a challenge. I have been otherwise unenthused with the KD contenders thusfar (War Pass notwithstanding...though, let's see what he does as a 3YO), but this race caught my attention for some reason. I agree wholeheartedly with Justin Dew that CJ and EGM may just make things a bit more interesting in an otherwise uninspiring year.

jharvat

03/04/2008 5:21 pm

Cdpotato,
I would proceed cautiously with that rationale of "beaten soundly by Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields". That really means nothing in the grand scheme of things. Now if it happened before and happens again, I would be concerned. But just because he ran third to them, doesnt mean he cant turn the tables right back with a different race strategy. I remember when Shot Gun Scott and Smelly beat Unbridled in the FOY too. Didn't deter me then, and this wont deter me now...Previous form and replays show Court Vision has tactical speed, and can be closer up if need be. For whatever reason, they decided to drop him farther back that day. When Gomez finally moved with him, he was 7 wide and had to make up too much ground to seriously threaten. Perhaps an expirement race? I dont know. But I honestly believe this horse will improve big off that effort. Foundation, breeding (loaded with stamina) and solid connections. My kind of recipe. Honestly, I dont want a horse that looks like a world beater at this point of the game. I like a horse that has room to improve and can move forward with each race. And right now, I believe Court Vision fits that bill.

ihatepolytrack

03/04/2008 6:48 pm

I wish Pletcher would put The Leopard into the SA Derby. I think he could take both of these two. This track has to go. A month ago there were track records and now the Sham has beyers in the 80s.

derbyme

03/04/2008 7:50 pm

For the favorite players: War Pass and Pyro are each at 7/1 on bodog. Generous enough for the people who think this blog should be restricted to comments on the above two horses.

On Tomcito: The horse isn't exactly "hyped". He's not on any top 10s. He's just an entriguing horse for the reasons discussed, making for a very interesting story. As our inside source has indicated, the only horse to beat him, after a troubled trip, shorter than he wants, was puchased by Darley or Godolphin who know a little about buying Southern Hemisphere horseflesh (think Invasor). Good enough for Godolphin, good enough for me to consider. No one's saying he's Secretariot. It's just a good story.

On J Be K: Everyone knows he's fast. Reminds me a bit of Henny Hughes. 12-1 is more than fair as the lone speed.

On Court Vision: He ran well enough in his return. NO ONE closes at Gulfstream, but he had the rail most of the race which is a HUGE advantage (Bsharp, CCM, Spring At Last... etc. etc.). He can move forward. Mott only wanted him to run 3/8ths. Good, not great. If Elysium Fields doesn't bounce, Court Vision will have to improve 10 lengths, or hope EF draws the 9 again. GP rail byas is RIDICULOUS btw.

warner13

03/05/2008 1:05 am

The Sham Stakes was a total disappointment. I can't imagine how anyone could see it any other way. These two alleged Derby contenders were terribly unimpressive. Absolutely Cindy (the filly) put in a much more impressive performance visually on Saturday than did either of these two. She made a stunning move 5 wide from the back of the pack to pass the boys at Turfway. The apologists who blame the track condition @ SA obviously didn't stick around to watch Heatseeker drop a lifetime high 110 Beyer on his Big Cap opponents. THERE WAS NOTHING WRONG WITH THE TRACK ON SATURDAY!!!

barryrmitchell

03/05/2008 3:31 am

Warner, I see it differently. The Sham stakes produce the number 4-5 on my derby list.

CJ and EGM ran very professional races. I did not see any horsing around.

Nevertheless, the Sham was nothing but a preliminary race, like the Risen Star or the FOY stakes.

The Big Dance are the Derby's, So each race SH,FOY,RS was ran with slow middle fractions. Each winner was visibly impressive late in the race to the wire.

Mike, Pyro ran the better last quarter, than CJ and EGM, finally CCM.

Round two starts this weekend, BLACKBERRY ROAD get the perfect trip, I HOPE!

warner13

03/05/2008 4:14 am

Barry,

The only reason that you could possibly justify either of these two horses in your top 5 is because to date the pickings have been slim. I'd be willing to wager that within a couple of weeks these two horses will slide down towards 9 & 10 on YOUR list. If I had a Top 10 list there is no way either would appear on my list.

Off the top of my head: Tale of Ekati will put in a good comeback effort in the LD. Court Vision will improve in his second start in 08'. Elysium Fields will continue to impress in the FD. Visionaire may well step up this week in the Gotham. Hey Byrn looks to be bursting upon the scene. Oh did I forget to mention that Georgie Boy would easily dust those two out west if they met up. Heck, even Monba may rise from the grave.

Mark my words by the end of March you'll wonder why you ever considered these two horses legitimate contenders for the Derby. Did I forget to mention TOMCITO!?? OK, only kidding about the wonder horse.

Cdpotato4

03/05/2008 10:13 am

Warner,

Absolutely Cindy's John Battaglia was the most exciting performance I have seen in years.

Obviously she raced against poor competition. Big Glen and Your Round should not be considered Derby contenders. But, she ran with the boys and won.

23 lengths back at 3/4. Closed from like 8-wide around the turn. It is awesome to watch. I suggest anyone who hasn't seen the video to watch it.

I am not saying she should point towards the Derby. As a matter of fact, I think the Oaks is a bit of a strecth because she lost to Indian Blessing by 20+ lengths.

But, you have to watch it. It is pretty exciting and Mike Battaglia is on the call.

mike barker

03/05/2008 10:44 am

Today at Gulfstream theres a nice 3 yr old race granted its MDN 40K .....Its race #6 the horse is READYS ECHO hes #5 and hes 5-1 ...This horse has 1 start back in August he broke 25 lengths out of it and closed to run 2nd by 5 lengths to Z HUMOR as you know is a stakes winner.. Ill see you at the windows with the win and place bets!
Oh and barry when he wins take your cash and bet PYRO in pool 2 :)

Cdpotato4

03/05/2008 1:25 pm

I like Old Ninety Eight in that one.

mike barker

03/05/2008 3:47 pm

From wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy back from dead last to first by 2 in a hand ride WOW I bet he must of been some 20 out of it he pays 5.80.... I knew the favorite was vulnerable trombetta is now 0 for 14 at Gulfstream his horse never hit the ticket...You have to see the replay

Cdpotato4

03/05/2008 6:50 pm

The winner in the 7th was impressive

derbyme

03/05/2008 10:44 pm

Big Brown looked awesome. He's going to the Blue Grass, though not nominated. Watch his debut too. Impressive. Ready's Echo looked good as well. No one comes from that far back at GP. But Big Brown, wow.

mike barker

03/05/2008 10:50 pm

No kidding Big Brown WOWWWWWWWWWWWW

barryrmitchell

03/06/2008 3:31 am

Earner, no way mt friend will they slide down the list.

These are two top trained and good horses.. You do well to keep them high.

Mike, your odds on PYRO just keep falling each time you blog the colt.

Pretty soon your odds will be 4-5. Well maybe not after this weekend.

BLACKBERRY ROAD will keep you in the money.

My real bet is on the rain Kentucky Derby day. I wonder if there is any casino action anywhere for the weather forecast.

I am sure you will know?

mike barker

03/06/2008 9:34 am

BARRY thats why you have to bet the pools my friend!

Jamie21

03/07/2008 10:08 pm

Blackberry Road needs to over come a lot of bad luck. With the two top colts WarPass & Pyro each having his own advantage Blackberry needs to step it up.

barryrmitchell

03/08/2008 4:23 pm

Thanks for the order out Jamie21, one Blackberry Road to go!

I also like Roman in the Gotham.

Here goes my Allowance 50 across the board.

Done, thank you the Internet.

barryrmitchell

03/09/2008 1:38 am

Great Job Mike, your almost halfway ready for a vacation trip again.

What's your opinion about the fillies time out running the boy's time (twice)

Is the fields including Pyro very weak at the Fair Grounds or the girls are just as good.

I don't believe I have seen that occurrence ever in horse racing except the year of Ruffian,