When Baseball and Horse Racing Collide

Yeah I miss fantasy baseball, I even got into an AL only league one year, but it is such a commitment to make. Fantasy football is more my style with the one event a week per team so you don't have to check it daily. Did anyone in your league draft Roger Clemens?

I like how it looked like Pyro's race likely didn't take too much out of him, and Visionaire's race was impressive even though Texas Wildcatter sort of blew it. What happens with Giant Moon, Tale of Ekati, Majestic Warrior, Coast Guard now?

1. War Pass
2. Pyro
3. Somebody step up

I have doubts about War Pass getting 1 1/4m with his running style. I am not overly impressed with Pyro's Fair Grounds performances. In any other year I would no like either horse. Where's Barbaro, Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron. Where's Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun.

But, these horses stand far and above everyone else. I am just hoping for someone to step up into "contender status."

I hope Georgie Boy and Bob Black Jack can stretch out. I hope Tale of Ekati and Majestic Warrior have excuses for their inexcusable performances. I hope Court Vision and Anak Nakal can get back on track in their second starts off layoffs. I hope Big Brown and Hey Byrn turnout to be for real. I hope Fierce Wind, Big Truck, and Smooth Air improve dramatically.

I want to see a performance where I will say "WOW HE IS A TRUE CONTENDER" And I am very disappointed that we haven't gotten that yet.

potato- I hear you.

But I think you'll finally see the performance you are looking for when Denis of Cork stretches out to 1 1/8. That performance may even come in the 1 1/16 Rebel, but his best races are surely going longer. And he's been no slouch by any measure punching through his conditions thus far.

Justin- what's your take on Denis? I think he'll be THE story in the classic races, with War Pass the hard trying front runner settling for minor awards.

Yankee Bravo needs blinkers. He was unsure who he was trying to beat in the stretch.

El Gato Malo needs blinkers. He turns his head to the grandstands every time they turn for home, a little like Tapit a few years back.

I have a feeling Visionaire's performance was more impressive than it looked, or didn't look... He came from way back and caught an impossibly loose T.Wildcatter. Pletcher can't catch a break.

Pyro is Pyro. Ran another second slower than the gals. Who's he beaten who actually showed up?

Maybe Proud Spell or better, Eight Belles will decide to try the boys.

Seeing Hysterical Lady romp in the Azeri reminds me again that above average synth runners might be monster loamers. Now watch Massive Drama or Medjool or someone win the Derby at 70-1.

Did anyone bet the Futures this go-around? And if so, who? I'm having a tough time this year settling on THE horse. Agree that War Pass and Pyro are a cut above right now. But I don't like taking 4-1 or 9/2 or whatever their odds were in Pool 2. I may settle on one of them by the time Derby week comes... but I'm hoping not.

So I put a little more $$ on Colonel John and have a good-sized bet at around 18-1 between the 2 pools. Have a decent bet on Z-Fortune at 35-1 between the 2 pools. Have small bets on Monba (Pool 1 only) and Denis of Cork (Pool 2 only).

Z-Fortune looks to be good value to me. Good progressive foundation, Beyers/Speed Figures improving, and very solid Late Pace ratings. One loss to Pyro by a couple of lengths. Like to see what he'll do in his race this week.

I've already covered my feelings on Colonel John in other blogs so I'll leave most of it alone. Don't like the 2-prep at 3 path but at least their both at a 1 1/8. His 2 yr. old foundation is solid. He's a closer. Like his breeding for the 1 1/4.

Denis of Cork has me intrigued. I thought his Southwest run was one of the better races of the prep season. Seems to have a nice turn of foot. Let's see if he runs as well as the distances get longer. Don't like his foundation of 3 races at this point but there's almost something to quibble about on all the supposed contenders this year.

Somebody else must have bet the Futures!? Please let me know what you all did. Thanks.

By the way, I just saw the Louisiana Derby for the first time in real speed. Can't get my RaceReplay settings right so I get that slow motion thing going... which I can't stand. Anyways, after watching the race, I was all the more impressed by Pyro. Take a good look at the replay and you can see on the far turn where he gets checked behind the top 2 and really loses momentum (it's pretty obvious), then quickly re-rallies, then has to look for a hole coming into the stretch and pretty much creates one by bulling his way out and through and he wins easily again. I don't care who he's running against... some of these must be good horses. Also, I've seen some knocks that the race wasn't as quick as the fillies. Don't put any stock in the argument after watching the race.

slot33, I have a similar postion to you for the future wager. I doubled down on Z Fortune to hold a combinged significant(for me) bet on him at 35-1. If he beats Denis of Cork next week with style then he will drop to right around 12-1 immediately since Denis of Cork is so well regarded. If he crushes Denis and runs over a 100 Beyer and his only loss was to Pyro's best career race then his odds will plummet and I think there is a good chance of that happening. I actually bet the field at 6-1 for insurance as I like Big Brown and there are several other field horses that will be included in Future Wager #3 anyway as individual betting interests. That was the first time I've ever bet the field in a future bet.

I agree Pyro ran a professional race, and he is a legitimate contender. I'm just not sure that he's the best yet.

Agreed. I think Dennis of Cork will be THE Arkansas horse this year. Honestly, I hope we have several horses going undefeated into the Derby - it makes the race more intriguing. I like to monitor each of the top horses going into the Derby, then wait until Derby week to make my final judgement. They can all look great going into it, but a great deal can be said when watching them over the Churchill surface. Although several of the contenders have raced or won over the strip, the track is completely different Derby week and more so on Derby day. Something else noteworthy is watching the horses outside of their respective barns and on the backside. Strangely enough, most of the negative backside buzz isn't published. Case in point, last year Scat Daddy had problems with his feet and should have been withdrawn, instead he went off at decent odds with the public thinking he was A-Okay. HRTV did report a small segment about this last year, but was reassured by Pletcher the horse was okay (even though passersby his barn could see the horses feet/legs being doused with ice cold water much longer than is required - perhaps, there was a little heat present?). Only to have them say he had foot problems afterward. Sure there are several instances where horses run when they shouldn't (Smarty Jones running in the Belmont when he was found to be lame that morning). Don't get me wrong, I was and still am a huge Smarty fan, but it wasn't right by the horse (forget the triple crown). More along this line, I was told by a reputable source that the Vets have influenced about 75% of the Derbies over the last 20 or so years - provides a little food for thought, eh? So, my goal this year is to relay any helpful information to everyone derby week.

I don't usually bet the future wagers, but today I was looking and realized (in my opinion) what a great price was available on Court Vision (16-1). He is right there behind War Pass and Pyro on most people's top 10. I realize he still has something to prove, but he has shown he can overcome adversity, and the FOY is a toss. I really can't see him going off at less than 12-1 on Derby day, unless he tanks the Fla. Derby. If he wins cleanly then he will likely be the third or fourth choice with Dennis of Cork, depending on how he handles his preps, which equates to maybe 10-1 or lower. There are going to be alot of people looking for a shot to beat Pyro, and War Pass so I believe there will be alot of action on the third and fourth choices. So by the time I decided I would throw down $100 on him, I realized I was too late. I have a sick feeling in my stomach.

Justin and fellow bloggers, I am interested in knowing if you feel that was a good price on him at this stage in the game?

After watching this weeks races i have to say i was wondering why Pyro was sitting 4th and up close so early, but luckily he got out and ended up winning.. Visually it wasnt as impressive as his last race but the times matched up about the same so maybe his #'s will also...First of all let me get this straight...Could someone tell me why Calvin was taken off BlackBerry Rd, not that i bet the horse but i feel bad for everyone that did and that has...What in the world was Albarado doing going for the lead before they even hit the stretch? ..Last time i checked BBR was a deep closer? I dont know if that ride was worse or the fact that he got Grasshopper in a speed duel a few races earlier, who happens to be a stalker..I dont care who that guys on he isnt getting any of my $$$... Mac Mcbride could of rode him better than that :) I just hope he doesnt get the mount on DENIS OF CORK for good that would blow............On the future pool i decided to take $100 and put it on VISIONAIRE at paying out $41.60 i just couldnt pass it up...I really am sad to say i jumped ship on this horse after Pyro rolled him but he actually only beat him by a few lenghts..As i watched the replay Visionaire was up close that race to and that is not his style at all..As you can see Visionaire was dead last again in the Gotham like he was in his Gulfstream race and ended up running everyone down for the win....Even after that win the powerful Outfit of TEAM VALOR purchased him so thats a good sign...I believe there will be alot a speed this year with War Pass so my top 3 picks are the deep closers who are PYRO.VISIONAIRE, DENIS OF CORK....hopefully by Derby Day i can deceid on one..I just couldnt bring myself to the table to bet Pyro at 4-1 who you will get that on Derby Day for sure.....Phil, theres nothing wrong with Court Vision at those odds and atleast hes the only horse to make up any ground that race...His 2nd race back should be better...Thats why i like Visionaire because he closed so well at Gulfstream, which has been a conveyor belt for speed this meet..............................In other news how about Indian Blessing spitting the bit Saturday and running 2nd...I have been saying she cant get the distance for some time now and guess what i read now that Baffert is probably gonna freshen her up and skip the OAKS...How mad would you be if you bet her in pool 1 and 2...Even he knows she cant get a 1/18 ...Thank Goodness i have a nice future wager on COUNTRY STAR

I don't want anybody talking to me right now!

I am taking a moment of silence for the death of U.S. Horse Racing

Why!

Pyro, a leading contender for the Kentucky Derby and three-length winner of Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, will retire to Sheikh Mohammed al-Maktoum’s Darley Stud at the end of his racing career, Darley announced Sunday.

I am so tired of the Sheikh buying all of the U.S. horses. I really have a distaste this type of business. It's so like our economy today. Foreign before Domestic business.

Another chunk out of Horse Racing.

Last year they acquired Street Sense, and Hard Spun.

Are they really buying breeding rights or the horse hold names?

I vote the latter. I am putting on my BLACK SUIT ofr the funeral.

Barry what did you think of BBR's race?

Phil,
I am a posted Court Vision fan, and happen to think the horse will improve big off his 3rd place FOY. Remember, that was his first race back since November of last year, and he was beaten by two horses that already had a 3 yo race under their belt, over the same GP strip. He has the 2 yo foundation, the breeding (loaded with stamina) and the connections all in his favor. I believe 16-1 was a great price on him in Pool 2. If my thinking proves correct, and he improves big off his FOY like I believe he will, then I would expect an 8-1 to 10-1 Derby Day price. Everyone is getting nervous because no other horse is stepping up to the plate to seriously challenge Pyro and War Pass in the Derby picture. Plenty of time for that. These are three year olds and are still learning and maturing. What may look like an average Derby contender at this point, could very well grow into the Derby winner over the next 2 months. That is why I like to look at horse that has room to improve with each race. Court Vision fits that bill for me.

I also agree with Mike on Visionaire. I like the connections, and believe the horse is starting to learn the game and is improving nicely with each race. He is the other I am keeping an eye on. Court Vision and Visionaire at this point for me.

slot33,

I made just one future wager, a large play on Denis of Cork in Pool 1 at 46-1. Make or break. Good luck settling on THE horse.

Justin-

Don't feel like the lone ranger with your RTTR team. I bought 3 teams and some of my "stars" are Bordeaux Bandit, Kodiak Kowboy (although I think he deserves at least a chance-if he were in a barn that wasn't loaded like Asmussens he'd be running in the preps) and the STAR of my "erdiston barn" Crimson Comic!

And of course, Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, and John Velasquez are "o fer" so far so that isn't a big help either. Visionaire was a nice play though (on two teams) but I don't know if that's enough to overcome some of the "not so intelligent" selections I've made.

I didn't make any future bets this go-round. Kudos to all of the knowledgeable 'cappers out there who put the mutual odds right about where they ought to be. Didn't find much value on horses I didn't already have money on. I took the Vegas odds early on and got Visionaire at 80-1, Elysium Fields at 80-1, and Yankee Bravo at 50-1. On the other hand, I also took Alaazo at 80-1, Win Cat at 50-1, and Talk a Cat (who?) at 60-1. Worse I passed on Denis of Cork at 100-1, and War Pass and Pyro were still at 7-1 last week. Even though my Visionaire and Elysium Fields bets look good and my Yankee Bravo bet looks solid, I can't help but think I just threw my money away and should have put it all on War Pass or Pyro at 7-1 last week.

Really, if you think War Pass and Pyro are leagues ahead, you'll get an honest price on any other horse you happened to like. Which is why I did not play Court Vision, a horse I like a lot. If he wins the Florida Derby he might be 3rd choice. I.E. 7-1, 8-1. He'll prolly be something like 3-1, 7-2 FL. Derby day if Big Brown enters. Multiply that out... and he's 3-1 X 7-1 = 21-1. Better to bet him in the FL. Derby then again in the Kentucky Derby. If he loses the FL. Derby, you'll get at least 15-1 on him in the Kentucky Derby anyway.

As for RTTR. 2nd straight year my jockeys and trainers are getting shut out. Built my stable upon Crown of Thorns and Court Vision...

Justin,
We all know, the horses to beat. What I need is the 3rd horse for my trifecta.

1. WARPASS
2. PYRO
3. ?? ANY SUGGESTIONS

I would really like to see Pyro take it, but until I see them race together again I will have to stay with Warpass.
Pyro is a very nice horse love his racing style. But can he gain all that ground trying to catch the run away train Warpass?

Jamie21,
Hit the ALL button

barry,
I have to disagree with you. I have visited the Darley Breeding operation in australia when I was there and let me tell you, it is nothing less than first class. From the sires to the mares and foals, everything is the best it can be. I think the sheikh is smart about what he is doing. Yeah, he is spending 30 to 50 million on these colts breeding rights but he is getting it all back and then some. He is taking these horses from the US to Australia to England to Japan to Dubai, where ever the breeding season is he is taking these horses there. Even horses you wouldn't think would get as much attention overseas because they are supposedly "dirt" horses are making a big impact in "turf" countries. I wish I had billions of dollars because I would do the same thing.

Derby ill take that ticket with Visionaire at 80-1 if you dont want it :)...I have a source that says hes probably going to Keeneland next for the Bluegrass, that will be nice him and Pyro matching up...Dont say you threw your $$ away lets just say you covered all your bases....Anyone member the last 3 yr old purchased by Team Valor it was none other than Captain Bodgit in 1997 and he was head bobbed for the win in the Kentucky Derby by Silver Charm .....The Captain upset the undefeated Pulpit that year to be the favorite for the Derby...Well guess who Pyro is out of Yep hes out of Pulpit ...HMMMMMM...I read that Andrew Beyer gave Visionaire a 98 and Pyro a 95...

Dissenting opinion here on the LA Derby.

First the obvious is that Pyro is a good good horse. However, I'm not ready to drape him in roses yet. Matter of fact I'm not sure he wins the LA derby if he doesn't get some help from his stablemate. I watched the race live and the replay 10 times. I think Pyro is stuck behind My Pal Charlie and J Be K around the far turn and into the stretch. Just as the track announcer mentions this ... and just as they straighten out Kent (#4 J Be K) looks over his shoulder ... sees Shaun (#3 Pyro) bottled up and in my opinion jumps from the 3 path into the 4 or 5 path opening the hole for Pyro. I don't think Pyro found a hole as much as J Be K (Kent) opened one for him. The second part of that equation is the fact that while jumping paths ... I think J Be K caused BBR to veer out into the 6 path. Watch BBR react to J Be K.

Justin ... and others ... Take a look at the replay and I'd like to know if my eyes are decieving me or of anyone agrees with me.

Pyro won as much the best ... but this time he had a teammate helping him.
And with 18 opponents in the Derby ... he might not be so lucky.

Justin and Dan,

I know we're 2 months out or so from the Derby... but help us out here. How about your takes on where we're presently at, who looks like value, what you may be hearing about the contenders from that seeding racing underbelly that you're likely so privvy to. We'd all like to hear something... I think.

iuadam,

Agree that Kent D moved J Be K and opened the whole for Pyro. However, I think J Be K's effect on BBR was limited. Pyro was easily the best horse in this field without a question. I would not bet against him if he matches up against any of his Louisianna rivals in the future. However, I am hoping someone will step up at Santa Anita, Oaklawn, and Aqueduct to challenge Pyro and War Pass in the derby.

I am excited to see Smooth Air face off against the champ on Saturday. I couldn't help myself when I saw 99-1 in the futures. Ended up at $380 for $2. Maybe he can improve dramatically off his Sam F. Davis? I hope.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44007

Everyone-

I just read that Visonaire is going to the Blue Grass, not the Wood. FYI.

hossgnat-

I am looking forward to seeing Denis of Cork's next race. We should know if he is for real then.

phil_cayla-

I think 16-1 on Court Vision is low at this point, but you might end up happy that you made that bet if he wins his next start.

slot33-

Stay tuned.

Interesting that Blackberry Road is headed to Illinois, who else of significance is running out there? It seems they are looking for a soft spot to land him a win and build some confidence.

He also is need of some earnings I see.

ok all, first, I love reading all your remarks. You all have your own insite that makes me think long and hard at my picks. Thanks barbeach for your support. I have watched thoroughbred horses race for over 30 years. No I am not professional race horse trainer but lets just say I know my way around the track. Anyway, as I have said WarPass and Pyro are it, unless of course, something happens god forbid. I have yet to read any of you give me thoughts on who will come in 3rd!!!!

Blackberry Road was one of my longshot picks but he doesnt have it yet. Maybe later on but now is not his time.

Dennis of Cork: I like him but he still has some improving to do if he wants to take on Warpass and Pyro.

I really like Cool Coal Man.

Majectic Warrior, I liked him until his last race. Well what do you guys think?

He also needs a jockey with some sense, why dont they get jerry bailey i bet he could find the winners cirlce with him!

Majestic Warrior needs more then just a better jockey. To be honest I dont think he can even place in the derby. He just dosent have it.

And BBR needs more than a jockey too. Okay, everyone is bashing Albarado and rightfully so as he cost me the all stakes Pick 5 aboard Grasshopper. Worst ride ever. He shouldn't have gone to the lead and most of all he took WAY too long to move him.

But...

I can't complain too much because he did give me my biggest hit as a handicapper. Last year's Coolmore Lexington Stakes!!! Slew's Tizzy!!!!

I was talkin about BBR he needs a good jock, maybe jill byrne :)

Mike, BBR race remains me of the Arlington races when he race to close to the lead.

His worst race to date. Farther distance is not the issue with the colt. Running a 1 1/16 is a problem, because the horse has to move to quickly into the race.

He is a one run horse with 3 furlongs move at the same pace. This type of action will be dangerous is longer distance because it applies pressure late in the race.

Here something else to keep in mind. I don't think the colt likes the fair grounds.

Churchill Downs is his main course. He love the long stretch run to the wire.

Maybe show up in the Blue Grass.

I still believe BBR is made for the Derby 1 1/4. I see 30-1 or better.

Mr. barbeach. I truly said, no one talk to me about the Sheik. I see the money he has and am not denying the expenses. My issue is "why do you keep buying, when many years ago, you have enough horses to breed your own stock.

You know in business, if you don't want your competitor to sale, you simply buy him out of the business. The Sheik method is passive but effective. The U.S. owners can not keep selling to foreign interest and survive. Pretty soon the U.S. will have nothing to claim as our own?

I want you to think on the last U.S. classic horse to remain home and breed here.

No comments please, I am still in mourning.

For BBR to run 4th was great i think especially since Robby the strangler rode him on the lead which was so dumb...This horse is a deep closer and will have no problems getting the distance, he just needs to make one move like Visionaire did and hopefully his connections and jockeys realize that...If someone would just do that he would win and we all could make a bundle..He needs some jock who is hungry to win the Derby..This horse is gonna end up being a major bomb on Derby Day and with his running stlye and all the speed in the race its gonna boost some nice exotic tickets!!

Denis of Cork to Skip Rebel Stakes, he going to the Wood or the Illinois Derby

I really don't understand why Majestic Warrior is getting any consideration as a top class derby prospect. The maiden win was impressive but it was sprinting. His stakes win in the Hopeful was against a whopping 5 horse field and the horses in that race have all been flops. War Pass and Pyro absolutely smoked him in the Champagne as the favorite. This colt doesn't belong beyond 7 furlongs.

Barry,
I agree with you on the sheik. We should start preserving our horses. STREET SENSE hows he doing? Is he breeding or what? They just buy them and I havent heard a word about him. Wheres the funeral?

Jamie21, If you ever been to New Orleans the calvery starts on Liberty Street heading to Louisiana Avenue, we bury our lost above the ground, Why! Swap Land below. Hint!

I am the guy wearing the black suit which lead the precession. The look of death is on my face. Trust me! its not festival time.

Beebs4201, I think Majestic Warrior like one turn races only. Appears to be a miler at best.

Mike, I can see Dennis of Cork heading to the Illinois Derby. The Rebel is coming up to be a tough race with Z Fortune , Fierce Wind, Yankee Bravo and Blackberry Road.

The competition simply will not get easier. But the colt needs Graded Earnings.

Interesting match up in the Rebel. Looks to be a close finish at the line.

But if the colt choses the Wood, no shame in losing to the Champ! But, is wins the wood, He will become the Derby favorite for sure and undefeated with a big win.

I really interested in the Big Brown colt. The name sound like it's drape in history. I can see the horse racing press clipping \"Big Brown\" powers home to a 12 lengths victory. Big Brown own the field to remain undefeated. Big Brown faces older horses champion Curlin for horse of the year honors.

Okay I know I am getting so far ahead of myself. But you have to admit, the name is a great one! and the bloodlines say's, he will become a classic horse.

The problem with Big Brown is the same as the problem with Hey Byrn. $0 in graded earnings and pointing to a race that has much to do with post position as speed or endurance. That's why I like Elysium Fields to make his presence felt in the Derby. He has a new upclose running style and the improvement he made with blinkers and distance oriented pedigree reminds me a bit of Empire Maker who won the FL Derby a couple years back. With so many horses needing earnings pointing to the race, Elysium Fields prolly only has to finish in the top 5 to get in where Big Brown could Draw post 11, go 5 wide, 4 wide, willing late 3rd by 1.5 lengths and get shut out by Turf War or Tale of Ekati. I wouldn't give up on the Western horses. No one tossed out Street Sense or Great Hunter or Hard Spun for prepping on synth last year, and the Western horses will be a lot fresher and just as fit for having prepped over the rubber all spring. Which ones will move way up on dirt like Hysterical Lady or Street Sense are totally unknown. I would give the edge to El Gato Malo based on his breeding. Colonel John appears bred for dirt, but Tiznows have been absolutely loving the fake going. Court Vision has a great shot of moving up. Georgie Boy moves like a turfer, but so did Barbaro.

Personally, I don't think the top 2 are as far ahead as most people think. Both are extremely talented, and have ran big numbers and appear likely to stretch to some degree, but Pyro looked like a plodder last year, and I imagine when he runs into horses that don't stop at longer distances, he might not have that same punch. Few horses do. War Pass hasn't been challenged early. I think he can rate, but you never know until they do it. His breeding is quite suspect. Most telling is the dismal failure of last years best. Tale of Ekati, Kodiak Kowboy, Majestic Warrior, Ready's Image, Maimonides, Z Humor, Salute the Sarge, Coast Guard, have all flopped to a large extent. Court Vision was a distant 3rd*, Anak Nakal was 108th in the FOY. So either War Pass and Pyro were the best and most consistant of a slow or inconsistant crop, or a whole bunch of late bloomers have caught up quick. Either way, it puts Pyro and War Pass within site of a few. That said, Pyro and War Pass both look like they've improved, so they might still be way ahead.

BTW, what happened to Maimonides after going to Mott?

Barry,
Although you ask for no comments I must defend my opinion. When you ask me to think of the last "Classic" horse to stay at home and breed here, well the list is actually pretty long. BC Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect (LAne's End), BC Classic winner Ghostzapper (Adena Springs), Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex (Gainesway), Belmont winner Birdstone (GAinesway), almost winner of triple crown Smarty Jones (Three Chimneys), Foreign owned great Point Given (Three Chimneys), and the list goes on. Also Potential Derby/ Triple Crown winner War Pass is going to be retired to Lane's End when he is retired. So there are "Classic" horses that are staying home, he is just buying those that he thinks will produce the best for the future. Thing is he just purchased Pyro who really hasnt WON anything yet. A MSW, a G3 and a G2, unusual for him to do with a horse who hasnt won a Grade 1 yet. We'll see who else he is going to buy by the end of the year. No more from my end.

Also Blackberry Road and Yankee Bravo arent going to be in the Rebel ( we just saw them last week) so it really isnt coming up that rough. I do however agree with you about Big Brown, I think he is gonna smoke them.

Barry,
I will be the one in the Black Mini Skirt.

Barbeach,
Pyro is the number 2 horse for now. With all the others horses just coming out to challenge him. Until I see him lose to another horse exect WarPass. Money at this point is not the issue as far as just winning the race. Thats what they look for. Remember the hype around the two top horses will only lead to money in the long. I would breed my mare to him with his current standings wouldnt you?

Not sure I understand why people keep calling Blackberry Road a contender-What is he now, 1 for 9-and I keep reading after every race the Jockey getting blamed? Looks like Dennis of Cork is gonna come to Hawthorne so BBroad won't even be able to win there!

The talk about BBr is that he has the ability to run and possibly win as a long shot.

Maybe rockin robby albarado can get the mount on War Pass and turn him into a deep closer hahahahah what a Loser..

Autism Awareness Sidelined with Injury

I think he meant the Arkansas Derby perhaps, not the Rebel?

So no one has a problem with the 3rd favorite Denis of Cork skipping this prep? Do you still like him just as much or does this make you rethink your evaluation of the horse's propspects?

They think hes gonna run a big race in the derby i guess, i wont be betting anything heavy as of now everyone one will be just looking to prep and tighten the screws....Alot of handicappers will be pitching horses if they dont run and win easy not me especially the Bluegrass...Im sure some horses wont take to the All Weather Track so keep that in mind...Today at Gulfstream is a mdn 40k 3yr old race#6 the horse is #2 SONG OF LOVE trainer is Barclay Tagg shes 10-1 im playing her across the board shes a half sister to NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ ...if shes ready she will clobber this field..

Denis of Cork ran a ZERO last out on the sheets.

Is he just avoiding Z Fortune, I think not if he points toward the Wood and War Pass

derbyrne,

I wouldn't necessarily toss all of those impressive 3-year olds.

I still think Z Humor could be a factor in the derby. After all, he ran well against Pyro and War Pass in the Champagne. He also has plenty of earnings since he went on to win the Delta Jackpot. I toss his Sam F. Davis, many horses have trouble shipping to Tampa. Then, he runs 4th a week later in the FOY. He could be a very live longshot next time out.

I am also a fan of Salute the Sarge. We'll see if he shows up again. It has to be sometime very soon though.

*2-year olds

Mike, SONG OF LOVE IS A NICE LITTLE HORSE!!! I'm rethinking Dennis of Cork.

I picked Z Fortune as a longshot in the beginning. His next race will tell me.

LAVA MAN! The original Rags to Riches worked today :36 1/5 at Hollywood, 9/13. Then the uh... other Rags to Riches worked best of 9 3f at Palm Beach :38 2/5.. I didn't even know she was in Florida.. Welcome back, and make it to Santa Anita in one piece!

Pat, I have a huge problem with Dennis of Cork missing the Rebel. He only has 3 races.. he's behind and now further behind. Can't have too many setbacks at this point.

Mike, looked at the MSW at Gulfstream, and I admire you sticking your neck out on the well bred Song of Love. That's a pretty tough group. I noticed Cristophe Clement has a daughter of Pulpit (Inny) entered who debuted at 7.5 on the synth against winners in France and finished a troubled 2nd. I think they might have sent her state side because they thought they had an Oaks filly. Steady works at the slow Payson Training track should get her fit. Pletcher's got one off a break, several others look due. Tough race. Good luck.

RTTR... Anyone know who's pointing for the Lane's End? Why Tonto? Ready's Echo?

Any word on Maimonides?

Tomcito worked, word on Dubai?

Dennis of Cork for some reason they claim he doesnt need anymore preps? What is his owner thinking?

Jamie,
Yes, I would breed my mare to him, but not the high class mares he has. If I had a Grade 1 winning mare, just like those he has on the farm, I would much rather breed to those triple crown horses from last year. I am saying this based on what I have seen so far from Pyro. Just not nearly as accomplished or talented as those horses from last year at this point that is why I am wondering why he purchased him. I would think that everyone would agree that those he purchased from last year faced much better competition last year than these are this year. We don't really know how good War Pass and Pyro are, we just know they are basically standing out from everyone else in their class which seems to be pretty WEAK. Who knows Pyro could run a dud in the Derby and every race after that but the deal is probably already done so sheikh could be getting the bad end of the deal. Just didnt make sense to me to make the deal so soon thats all.

I heard Monba was going to the Lanes End ....Bob Baffert is not sending Indian Blessing ahhahahaha figures ...Well after a temperature my girl is back in action and you can watch her in the Ashland at keeneland April 7 on my bday i look for her to just run a good race and save her self for the Oaks in a ROMP......Hope you have her in pool 3 .......Horse name COUNTRY STAR
Notes KY Oaks Winner!
Activity type Workout
Activity date 03-12-2008
Track Hollywood Park
Surface All Weather Track
Distance 5 Furlongs
Workout type Handily
Workout time 0:59.00
Track condition Fast

Derbyme,

Turf War, Halo Najib, Monba, US Cavalry are supposed to be considering the Lane's End

Welcome from frigid, racing deprived Michigan! Thanks to all the bloggers for helping me get my racing fix, especially Justin, Joel, Mike, Barry, Jamie, CDpotato, Beebs, and all the rest of you. Good stuff!

If I had to pick a horse to breed my mare to from either the 2007/2008 3 yr old class I would have to go with Hard Spun. How can you not like the breeding prospects of a son of Danzig, from a great female family, great miler (I seriously think that was really his forte), terrific cruising speed, good two-year old form, and the class and toughness to stretch out to the classic distances for a long tough campaign from derby preps to Breeder's Classic? I also remember a Steve Haskins article said his vet bill averaged ust $80 a month. That probably is a reflection of Larry Jones training style, or maybe HS just didn't care for Fiji water or grass/sod flown in daily from Ireland? You got to think that Darley has to be just hugging themselves on how this purchase turned out so far.

Which also makes me wonder what their overall objective is? Do they want to dominate the breeding side of the industry? Keep buying horses until they get the next Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer? They surely don't seem to want to dominate racng, or they may be inclined to keep these horses in training. I understand how they shuttle the stallions to maximize their breeding value, but I have to think that the money they make in horse breeding, although a lot of cash to someone like me, is probably chump change to them.

Also, not much activity or blogging on the Oaks site. Right now that seems to be as intriguing as the derby, or more so. I love Country Star, and was getting worried over lack of activity with her. Nice to see a bullet workout from her. I am excited to see talent developing in the likes of Proud Spell, Eight Belles and Proud Clan. Could shape up to be a great race!

Chicken Dinner Winner, SONG OF LOVE breaks dead last out of the gate and wins going away WOW!! $16 $8.20 $6.80 what a first time starter..

Derby me and you on the exacta $ 93.60

Mike,

Our exacta paid $93.60! I had it twice with a modest W/P/S on the winner. Nice job.

Jamie, I'm guessing, DoC is not coming up to the Rebel as well as hoped. Hasn't missed time, but the lanky colt might just need time to fill out. They call it strategy, but no one ever plans to miss a start. He's suspect.

Beebs, forgive me if I don't pick up a Monba who grabbed a quarter in FOY, or anyone else mentioned for that matter. I'll rephrase... Is anyone GOOD going to the Lane's End, or is every horse in the East pointing for the Fl. Derby??

You guy's and gal's are great. I am extremely happy for the blog here.

Nice job everyone. At this point, to be quite honest! I don't have a clue for the Kentucky Derby. I get a sense the competition is very close in ability. Pyro is KING in Louisiana, that for sure. But, I don't know how deep the fields were, because the boys times never surpassed the gals.

I think the Blue Grass and the Wood will eliminated many of the top three year olds.

Maybe a superstar will be born or the stars will remain bright "Who knows"

I see front runners, middle pack, and deep closer.

Maybe Justin has a crystal ball and will put on his pointed hat!

Oh Justin, where art thou oh Justin?

Barry,

I'm here brother. No crystal ball, however.

Imoshier on the Oaks,

I think the lack of activity on the Oaks sight may be a concession to Country Star. I am a big fan, but still have reservations. 1) Missing time, Frankle is quite conservative. 2) Turf/ Synth form, won't have a dirt start before Kentucky, 3) Holding form, Backseat Rythm (the only filly to beat her) finished a solid but uninspiring 3rd in her return. Mushka's done. Golden Noodle? Grace Anatomy? In fact I don't think she's beat another horse who's an individual interest in the Future Wager... Proud Spell looks better all the time, prolly woulda been second in the LA Derby, and likes dirt. They'll meet in the Ashland.

Pure Clan is a buzz horse. I'll wait and see. Eight Belles is a monster half of the time. To me, she's the most exciting.

The only horse with betting in the future wager in my book was Vaulcluse at 23-1. She's 3-3-0-0 and ran perhaps the easiest track record I've seen this side of Commentator. I tried to beat her at Tampa with Mybabybaby and couldn't come close. The latter runs in an a big allowance that runs like a stakes at Gulfstream, tomorrow I believe, and will be a short price against some well regarded fillys including Sunday Holiday. Vaulcluse runs this weekend in the Florida Oaks and will be at only slightly better odds than War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby.

I just looked at the entries, and Sunday Holiday didn't enter in the allowance. Mybabybaby will face Money My Honey and Scolara. Money My Honey broke her maiden impressively for Bryan Lynch who's paired well with Adena Springs runners, especially second time back. Scolara moves turf to dirt, but Mybabybaby should be long gone.

Great work Mike and Derbyme! 16.00 to win and 46.30 for $1

Drinks on you tonight! See ya at 10 at Fat Boy Bill's!

Columbus,Ohio here 17 day canceled at beulah we just had 20 inches a snow in 1 day

Barbeah, You are absoulutley correct. But we are talking about now, and Warpass and Pyro are it. And no they dont even compare at this time in the game as Street Sense and Hard Spun. This is the fun of it all trying to see or guess who is going to take it all. but its only my opinion and you know what they say about those.

DOC is suspect... why o why isnt he oing to run????? mmmmmm dontlike that.

Mike, CONGRATS ON SONG OF LOVE!!! I MADE A LITTLE MONEY TOO. THANKS FOR THE TIP.

Minor injury knocks Barrier Reef from Tampa Bay Derby ....Whos gonna run against War Pass? Sounds like a 4 horse field to me....Anytime Jamie thats why were all here to make $$$

Mike
Help me out on Bob Black Jack. Whatshis storey. He is running in the San Felipe and his first time arounf two turns.

Justin,
Bob Black Jack?????

Was it something I said???

He looks like a sprinter to me, his last race was 6 furlongs in 1:06 thats unheard of..I would have to go with Georgie Boy especially the way Rafael has been riding hes my favorite..Im playing him in the double over WARRENS MOONCROSS and TABLE FOUR TEN,,.....The program for the Rebel should be out tomorrow, since Visionaire came back to win and so did Pyro as a handicapper you have to love Z FORTUNE then..

Bob Black Jack took advantage of a speed favoring track when the Sunshine Millions, and despite his obvious talents, he faces a ridiculous closers bias now in his first start around 2 turns. Think Monterey Jazz. Should set up well for Georgie Boy. Turfers have been running well, so I expect Indian Sun and even maybe Southwest to run well. I have no idea if Shediak has run on turf or synth, but certain circles appear high on the colt. It looks like Georgie Boy's race. Little value if you don't have a strong angle against him.

Mike - I happen to think second start of a layoff will be a different story for Anak Nakal. Also think he will be decent odds off his lackluster effort in the FOY. Since DOC is out, Z Fortune looks like the only other horse with back class. Looks like a match race on paper, but Sierra Sunset could also make some noise. After all, he did finish 2nd to DOC last time over the Oaklawn strip. By the way, just read where Tomcito is staying in the US and pointing towards the FL Derby. I am thinking he will be 3rd or 4th choice behind Elysium Fields and Big Brown. So, I would say the odds will lay somewhere between 5/1 and 7/1 come post time in a little over two weeks. I know there are doubts on his ability in the US, but I have a sneaking suspicion he's going to run HUGE!

Agree with DerbyFan as far as the rebel is concerned.

Vegas Futures:

http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/WYNNKD.pdf

Derbyme,

The Lane's End never attracts very good derby contenders. Last year was the exception when Hard Spun won it. Of course, Hard Spun had just come off of a disappointing race and there wasn't much buzz on him at all at the time. Monba is unlikely for the race but Pletcher keeps mentioning it for some reason. The Bluegrass is more likely for Monba. Most trainers stay away from the Lane's End because of the poor spacing for the derby.

Thanks Mike. I was thinking the samething but needed confirmation on that. I have also picked Georgie Boy. I would like to see Bob Black Jack do well. So we will see.

Derbyme thank you as well.

You can use this one also, http://letitride.com/LVH_Future_Book_Odds.cfm Derby and cdpotato4 send me a blank email and ill send you something back you might need...mikiebarker@hotmail.com

beebs,

Point taken, however it seems there's usually one solid contender, Hard Spun, Flower Alley, Birdstone in recent years... and for Road to the Roses, if you have 1 good one against a field of grocery baggers, it's like free points. Otherwise I could add Tomcito and Big Brown and have 1/2 the Fl. Derby field and no horses in an easy Gr. II. Me thinks certain trainers might get gun shy of the FL. Derby because of the course config and strong expected field. Also, recent success of synth to dirt runners probably lures in a few. I just feel that picking Your Round for one race is kind of a waste. Especially if my suspicion is correct and we see Court Vision or Big Brown show up there.

Mike, 60-1 on Big Brown??!!

Cd,

Thanks for the current Vegas odds. Makes me want to put a $10 flyer on Tomcito. Okay, I should be more online savvy but... I need some help. Can't drive to Vegas to put down $$$. Recovering from a 10 hour neck and back surgery and I'm now full of titanium plates, screws, rods. So I need to know from one of you more proficient computer guys... what sites might be available to make a Vegas-type-current-odds bet? There must be some of them. Thanks.

any more Song of Love horses out there?

Any of you going to be at Santa Anita this weekend?

Try this Slot http://www.sportsbook.com/

10th (5:45)
Rebel S. (G3)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Isabull Doocy T T 115 L
2 Sierra Sunset Emigh C A 119 L
3 Stone Bird Johnson J M 117 L
4 Sacred Journey Borel C H 117 L
5 Golden Yank Sterling L J Jr 119 L
6 He's Eze Quinonez L S 117 Blk-On L
7 King's Silver Son Bridgmohan S X 115 L
8 Anak Nakal Bravo J 119 L
9 Z Fortune Gomez G K 122 L

12th (5:50)
Tampa Bay Derby (G3)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Cigar Man Allen R D Jr 116 L
2 Gentleman James Amiss D D 116 L
3 War Pass Velasquez C 122 L
4 Make Me Zach Rivera J A II 116 L
5 Dynamic Wayne Morales P 116 L
6 Big Truck Coa E M 116 L
7 Atoned Velazquez J R 116 L

Finally, someone analyzes the pedigree of War Pass and isn't driving the Pyro bandwagon. Quite impressive to boot, I might add. I know, I know. There is still a great deal of skepticism, but it definitely goes much deeper than previous reports all referring to his sire, Cherokee Run. If you haven't already read the article, check it out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?colum...

DerbyFan78,

If you liked Paul Moran's pedigree analysis of War Pass, take a look at the post I made on 2/27/08 of War Pass's pedigree on Dan Shapiro's blog: Death, Taxes and War Pass.

To DerbyFan78:

First of all let me say thank you for thinking that Tomcito will run huge. I'm not saying that he will win. He is a confirmed deep closer trying to win a race with good speed horses like Big Brown at a speed favoring race track like Gulfstreem after all. But this horse has been working as well as anybody. AND I don't care what anyone says...for a horse to beat the best 3 year olds going away in any country at a mile and a half, as a 2 year old, is SPECIAL. This is a 17 hand horse with a GREAT classic pedigree and I think he merits the utmost respect.

To everyone:

What is up with the Derby preps being run essentially as handicaps? The Derby is run at even weights. Why should graded stakes preps that are essential for horses to get into the Derby run at non-level weights? I think my point is best illustrated by giving an example: In the Rebel, King's Silver Son and Isabull will be in receipt of 7lbs from Z Fortune. Let's say Isabull wins by a head from KSS eith ZF another head back in third. ZF would clearly have been defeated by the weight and the other two would significantly benefit from this by gaining heaps of graded earnings. Come May 3, 2008 it may very well be that Isabull gets into the Derby at number 20 and ZF is sitting at number 21 and doesn't get in. The better horse sits out because of the system.

In my opinion the system needs to be revamped. It is unfair as it stands to owners of 3 year olds at this time of year. I'm sure a lot more could be written on the subject and as such I am anxious to hear what the other fans have to say about it.

P.S. I hope that B