Have you ever been to Washington, D.C.?

Fair points and a well-written dispatch as usual JD. Nice touch comparing racing logic to the morning drive. I employ my horse racing logic when negotiating the streets of rush hour Chicago (e.g., if I hang back long enough behind this middle-aged woman I can hit that seam by the curb and get some daylight into the stretch). I suppose this is when you realize you may have an obsession.

Still, War Pass remains the favorite? At least we know now that Pyro can win closing deep or by running with the middle pack. WP is probably the least versatile of the contenders in that he really only has one trick up his sleeve. Maybe his talent overcomes that shortcoming but I'm thinking the talents of the Pyros, Georgie Boys, Cool Coals, and dare I say it, the Big Browns of the world put War Pass's talent to an ultimate test at 1 1/4, regardless if he jumps out to a nice lead.

That being said, I think you've brought some sobriety to the \"War Pass is done" chorus.

Hi ya JD,
I know this is a late comment but have found myself pondering War Pass's latest performance myself over the course of the past week. I totally agree with you. I think War Pass was out of his element. In addition, he got bumped, not once but twice, if I'm correct? Also, he was skitterish in the starting gate before the start of the race.

I feel if he can fire and run his race, Pyro, or any other horse, will have their hands full trying to catch him. I just hope they don't throw in the towel for the Derby just yet.

One more thing: Did you guys also hear that War Pass leapt in the air and was coming down when the gates opened? On HRTV his owner added this extra excuse and also said that everything else went bad too. Luckily, for War Pass fans, all of the physical tests came back negative - so far, nothing physically is wrong with him. The second good news is that his odds are floating upwards - last I heard, 7-1. So if you are still a War Pass fan, you are going to get better odds next time out, in the KDerby Futures Pool # 3, and, maybe, even in the Derby. So this, if you still believe, is good! What this also means is that War Pass will probably need to win the Derby running on the front end and win it like War Emblem, Go for Gin, and Spend-A-Buck. It has happened before, it can happen again. So, boys, if you still believe, rub your hands together and bet War Pass with both fists in the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass, in the next Futures Pool, and in the Derby! Good luck!

War Pass still the Derby favorite? What does he have to do in the Wood to even go on to Louisville? I'd think he has to win it with authority. Surely a fade in the Aqueduct stretch or another clunker ala Tampa and you would have to think no Derby.

But plenty of folks are still on the War Pass bandwagon - he'll probably be 8-5 in the Wood. For the many of us who think he is flawed and vulnerable, the Wood might just be a great betting opportunity.

yup

Still, 7-1 may be worth betting if he proves well in the wood

I still like War Pass but here's the "pool 3 problem". Now that he's proven to be beatable the Wood is coming up fairly strong and if he beats that field, his pool 3 price will drop so that there is no value. If he runs another poor race, then he's pretty much (at least to me) unbettable, and for that matter may not even run in the Derby. The only possible scenario that would make him playable in pool 3 is if, somehow, he doesn't get the lead (Giant Moon may want it) and passes a few horses to be 2nd or 3rd. That would drive the price up to an acceptbale level (and if he doesn't win the Wood, I would need 10/1 to play him) I'm guessing that even if he wins the Wood, if Pyro wins the Bluegrass, he'll be between 9/2 and 5/1 on Derby Day. (There's no doubt in my mind that regardless of what else happens in the rest of the preps, if Pyro wins the Bluegrass, he'll go off as the Derby favorite) Hopefully Big Brown will take lots of money, because history shows that he just won't have enough "bottom" going into the Derby to win it (although he must be considered on the bottom of gimmix) but could be a force in the Preakness and/or Belmont, along with races like the Travers later on.

First of all i have to say im a War Pass hater not him or his connections personally just because hes a one dimentionable speed ball, and i agree with Justin if you take a horse out of his running style it is a disaster just ask Visionaires connections..But the only way i would bet him in my exotics is if he comes back in the Wood and wins for fun and he draws from maybe Post 12 and in thats it...Can you imagine IF HE DREW LIKE POST 18 ? What do you guys think his odds would be gimme a guess.. I would guess 14-1

If he wins the Wood and draws an auxilary post I say still 8-1 to 10-1, which will be way too low still for my tastes, inside post and he will be second favorite behind Pyro. I think the winners of the Wood and SA Derby should fall into the second and third favorite spot b/h Pyro of course...Unless DOC goes to Illinois. Even a 2nd or 3rd on the synthetic at Keeneland shouldn't knock Pyro out of the favorite spot. Although the Fla. Derby looks pretty strong the winner should be in the 10-1 to 12-1 range on May 3.

Post position would not be a problem for War Pass, other than maybe forcing his to go toward the front which he'd do anyway. The difference in distances from post 1 and post 20 are negligible with the entire length of the stretch plus the entire length of the shoot (Think triganometry). The problem is other horses to your inside not letting you drop over. War Pass would outrun most and if not all, get a trip in the clear, and settle into a perfect stalking trip or dare them to come catch him. In fact, after his Tampa run, it'd be far better for him to draw outside and be in the clear rather than having to run behind horses if he got a bad break from the inside.

phil,
If Big Brown wins he'll be favorite or second favorite. People are already comparing him to Curlin. If High Fly and Scat Daddy go to post at single digits then whoever wins the FL Derby will be in single digits as well, absent a Friend's Lake upset. Value will be in the losers of the Santa Anita Derby (if it looks like they will move forward on dirt) and the Arkansas Derby as it always is, if they can fill the race, no one wants to run there?

I guess its not time to completely discount War Pass but boy do I have serious doubts about him winning at 1 1/4. Even if he runs a big Wood I'd be suspicious. No matter where he breaks from in the Derby there's always the chance of problems at the break, shortly thereafter, or into the first turn. The fact that he didn't handle bumping well or not being able to get the lead is troublesome. There will be a few in the Derby who will want the lead so its no shoe-in that War Pass will get it. He hasn't rated yet which isn't good. Throw in the fact that his breeding is somewhat suspect for a 1 1/4 and I'm seriously doubting his chances for the win. In my opinion, Pyro deserves favoritism into the Derby by just running a decent Blue Grass... first, second, or third. Yes, I could be wrong on War Pass, but I'd rather put my $$ on a proven horse with versatility and athleticism ala Pyro has shown. And I'm still not completely sold on Pyro. Need to see the last Derby preps before sorting this out. Just don't think War Pass will be the Derby winner. And if he is, and does it on the front end, I'll salute him while tearing up my losing tickets.

Not to compare apples to oranges, but last year nobody said the 2 year old champion could win the Derby, and Street Sense proved that wrong. And the horse that shot out for the lead last year, Hard Spun, had the same type of fate at Oaklawn in the Southwest. That was his only loss before the derby, and he almost took the field start to finish like War Pass will try to do. I think people look too much into the flaw of one race, rather than what the horse has accomplised as a whole. War Pass has beaten Pyro twice in G1 competition. Ran an effortless 1 mile race in 1:36 at Gulfstream, and just had a rough trip last time out. I agree with you Justin, he's still my favorite for the Derby despite the distance issue. Show me another prep race this year, other than the Arkansas ones, where the fractions have even been legit. War Pass is fast, and nobody else has shown they even want a piece of him in his wins. However, having said that, what happens if he runs a heck of a race, fast fractions and all in the Wood, and Denis of Cork runs him down. That Southwest Stakes run was amazing. Whoever wins the Wood in my mind ought to be the favorite in the Derby.

Mark,

I think you hit on a good point in that people put too much stock in a single poor performance. Similarily, they probably put too much emphasis on especially good performances, more specifically, its easy to get caught up with a visually impressive performance or a gaudy number, or a quick time. That's the great thing about the game, our eyes can fail us, our numbers can fail us, and times can fail us. The challenge of handicapping is to put it all together and figure out what you can trust and when.

DOC was impressive in the Southwest, but the pace set up perfectly, much like El Gato Malo's devastating win over Indian Sun. Tomcito's Derby Nacional against grocery baggers. No one's been more visually impressive than Big Brown. The numbers vary widely on these performances. Are the numbers right or are our visual impressions right? Both?

Where is Jessica Pacheco?

Fair Grounds

She is never on the videos here anymore....???? At the beginning of the year, she was doing race previews and reviews.

In the last 60 years only 7 horses have won gate to wire. Hard Spun wasn't THAT close to winning it last year though his run was brilliant and fun to watch, and I was happy to get him in there in my tri., but would've enjoyed it more had he won. Yes, Street Sense "bucked" history last year, but history holds up pretty well in the derby and War Pass having questionable distance pedigree and lack of rating ability may be too much for him no matter where he draws if he runs at all. Pyro, still seems a stand out to me with Denis Of Cork, Colonel John, and Tale of Ekati all a/b ratings, but I'll sure be shuffling horses around in my trifecta keys if Eight Belles runs in the derby.

War Pass hater here, but I seem to want to excuse his Tampa effort. Only reason being Z humor's race in the Sam Davis. What is it with Tampa, some hate it others love it? Z Humor got extremely washed out before, during, after the Sam Davis and seemed to not want to be there at all. Anyone been to Tampa? Are there pretty women in the stands that distract these young horses? I dont know what it is, but something's up. Still a hater but think WP could come back with a big one.

Anyone ever heard Baffert tell the story of Silver Charm being scoped by the vet... Unless you've seen the results of the tests personally, who knows? Note to this statement: Silver Charm went on to win the derby+ :)

barbeach,

Looking forward to Z Humor's next. Could have some value.

Also, you will find great value with Smooth Air this week!

Fastlane, if you are going by history, I'll give you a perfect example of War Pass and Pyro. 2006 Arkansas prep races. Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer. Lawyer Ron always beat the closer, and War Pass has never lost to Pyro. Now I know everybody is saying it's hard for a lead horse to go a mile and a quarter, but it has been done. War Emblem made it look easy the first two legs of the crown 6 years ago against a weak field. I think War Pass has an excellent shot this year just because of the lack of consistency or lack of depth for most of this year's crop. If War Pass wins the Wood Memorial, are you honestly going to tell me he's not the best 3 year old out there, and should not be favored to win the Derby? I've heard a lot about Big Brown and Hey Byrn here lately, but they need to have big races this weekend to even get in the Derby. If that doesn't happen, I don't see any other true up front speed in the Derby that will challenge War Pass. And if he's unchallenged, I have confidence he can run a ligit 10 furlongs.

On another note, one of my sleepers for the Derby is Blackberry Road. Does anybody know who is riding him next time out? Borel, Albarado, or anyone else?

If War Pass runs he is no less than a B for me at any price. I'm just trying to throw out things to consider for anyone "loving" him at a short price. I don't know who is on Blackberry Road , but agree with you and felt lucky to get 45-1 in Pool 2 on him.

Decent points Mark on War Pass. He's run fast in 2 1-turn mile races and 1 2-turn 1 1/16 race. Two of his three blazing races that you refer to, were won while a 2 year old. He ran 45.1 and 1.10.3 splits in the 1-turn Champagne while beating a fast closing Pyro by 1 1/2 lengths. He won the BC on a sloppy surface that the numbers say he is extremely well bred for running 45.2 and 109.3 splits (so I'll give it to you on that one...fast). I think that too much stock can be placed in the 2-year old performances. I'd put more stock in the 3-year old campaign. So then he comes back and wins a 1-turn mile in 46.3 and 1.11.4 splits against a small, terrible field. Then he runs a bad Tampa race. I'll concede that Tampa is quirky and some horses just hate it there.

But before saying War Pass is the only speed, desrves favoritism, and will win the Derby... I say he needs to win the Wood. I'd really like to see a dry surface also. If War Pass can run 45-46, 1.10-1.11, 1.36-1.37 splits, AND win... then I'll re-asess and give him a harder look. Otherwise, I say his prospects look dim for a Derby win.

Everyone is so concerned that there won't be speed in the derby.
I absolutely disagree.

Horses in top 20 graded earnings with early speed:
War Pass
Massive Drama
Halo Najib
My Pal Charlie

Others that could emerge:
Big Brown
Bob Black Jack
Giant Moon
Cowboy Cal
Saratoga Russell
Golden Spikes
Polonius

Not to mention, the 1/4 has gone in under :23 and the 1/2 in under :47 every year but one this decade. That obviously being War Emblem in 2002. And those who want to say "well they can go slow again like in '02," well War Emblem didn't exactly go slow. I don't call :23^1 and :47 in a 1 1/4m race slow.

War Emblem won because he was a great horse steadily improving at the perfect time. As we all know, he then went on to successfully stalk and win the Preakness and wire the Haskell.

War Pass was a stud at 2 and at 3 he is not. He peaked too soon and is best at a mile in my opinion.

The only thing the horses have in common is their name. And Mr. Prospector is in their bloodlines (the only thing War Pass has going for him).

There will be plenty of speed in the derby as usual and War Pass has no chance of lasting on the front end. We already know he can't rate as well. TOSS HIM!!!!!

I'm not denying that there won't be speed in the Derby this year, there probably will be. I'm just not sure who out there has shown they want the early lead or want to challenge War Pass. CD you have a bunch of horses that could emerge that I don't think will make it because of the earnings, and the other 3 with War Pass are extreme long shots. Halo Najib was 2nd in a terrible field at Lanes End. My Pal Charlie ran 1:13 and change for 6 furlongs in the Louisiana Derby, and Massive Drama hasn't shown me anything this year. War Pass did at least win his allowance race in 1:36 with the jockey not even letting him run much. I guess I'm reflecting too much to last year, but last year we had Cowtown Cat, Teuflesberg, Stormello, and Hard Spun who we knew wanted to be up there and challenge the lead, and Hard Spun showed that he could run 1 1/4. The others showed they were sprinters. I think as long as War Pass gets in the lead, even if by a half length, he'll be fine. I don't see any other stalkers or lead horses challenging him long enough to make him move too early. And Pyro won his Louisiana Derby's on a slow pace and has yet to show me that he can close and win on a fast pace. If War Pass can win the Wood in fast times as Slot33 said, I still see him being able to win the run for the roses

45-1 on Blackberry Road is a sweet longshot. I hope Borel gets him again. I see him being a sleeper at Churchill. He ran a heck of a race last November there, and if Borel can find his "rail" and not get stuck in traffic, he is my favorite jockey at the track. I think that's what separates Borel from the elite. He relies too much on the rail at times and gets stuck in traffic an awful lot. A clean trip in the Derby for Blackberry, and I can see him easily making the money.

Mark, don't you think it is more impressive for Pyro to close well against a slow pace since theoretically the front should still have gas in the tank. Also, the slow early paces can explain some of the low Beyers. I believe he will look even more impressive against a fast pace, he will make the front of the pack look like they are standing still. I don't usually like to play the favorites as I always look for value, but I am really having a hard time faulting Pyro... he is only visually improving and showing more versatility the more races he runs.

One more thing, I could care less about War Pass' victories over Pyro last year, the difference b/t then and now is that War Pass has flattened out, while Pyro is still improving...bottom line.

Mark,

Again, Big Brown has serious speed and looks like he can keep right on rolling. If he gets in, War Pass better watch out. The absense of speed in the FL Derby means he will likely shake free at some point, and on that track, that's all you need. Long gone. He'll probably win and be 2nd choice for the big one. Halo Najib isn't really an upfront runner, but the others mentioned are legit pace threats.

I think it's a bit premature to consider War Pass a "toss". I'd rather have a horse that's fast enough to win that won't always get the distance than a horse that isn't fast enough but will run all day. If things go right, War Pass could win, Hard Spun could have won, Peace Rules, Closing Argument, Congaree or Lion Heart could have won. If you're not fast enough, you have to hope the race falls apart and 10 other horses don't run their race. It happens occassionally, but not often. Is it more likely that War Pass gets an uncontested lead and outruns his pedigree, or is it more likely that Blackberry Road drops back to 18th, saves ground, finds room, makes his run and War Pass, Pyro, Big Brown, El Gato Malo, Colonel John, Georgie Boy, Dennis of Cork, Visionaire, Elysium Fields, and Cool Coal Man all have trouble or don't fire? Granted, you're looking at 80-1 on Blakberry Road, and maybe 8-1 on War Pass, but the point is, start with a horse that's fast enough to win.

Okay I'd like to switch gears here a bit. What do some of you think of Court Vision? My gut tells me he's too slow to win despite his good breeding. He's got low Beyers although he's been close in most of his races. His FOY wasn't that impressive even though he got up for third and he'll only have 2 preps. I thought he was going in the FLA Derby but now I don't see him mentioned as a possible. Anyways, I still see him rated highly in a lot of polls but... he reminds me of a Saarland. Comments?

slot,
He will run in the Wood against War Pass, and possibly Dennis of Cork. I found this sight interesting as far as where horses are probable to run next:
http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/watch/derbywatch_032108.pdf
I have high hopes for Court Vision. He seems like he will only get better with distance. In the FOY I think he ran too far back (on a front runner bias track).He should run right behind the mid-pack. With that being said, I think the shorter races he didn't get to go full steam, he seems like a freight train, slow acceleration, but we may not have seen his full speed yet, and I think the long stretch at CD will really help...Not to mention he has a win on that surface already.

Another thing, Garrett Gomez chose him over Col. John, there has to be something behind that. He seems to be a horse that noone is talking about, which could change after the Wood.

Okay, post positions haven't been drawn and odds not discussed for the Fl Derby, but I am saying it now....Tomcito with Chop Chop in the saddle for the victory over Big Brown. Not to mention, his price will be nice - I am thinking in the range of 7/1 to 12/1! Okay....I know he hasn't beaten much before coming to the US, but honestly answer me this question....who did Invasor beat before coming to the US a couple of years ago (answer - everyone but Discreet Cat and the other two horses in front of him in Dubai)? I am sure everyone said the same thing about him before he won the Pimlico Special a few years ago and look at his body of work afterward. Heck, no one ever thought Smarty Jones even had a chance in the KY Derby prior to his win in the AK Derby a few years ago or Funny Cide before him. Additionally, the pedigree question has been visited time and again, then beaten into the ground. Although, this goes back to Secretariat's pedigree too. Everyone said his sire couldn't throw a distance runner, much less a Derby winner. So, I think, this too, is no longer a valid reason/excuse for a horse to not get a distance. Over the last 30 years, TB's in general, have been bred more for speed and less for stamina, which, in turn, creates a more fragile breed more susceptible to injuries. Pretty simple engineering logic - Pressure = Force/Area, where F is in lbs. and area is in square inches. Force (weight in this case) has remained somewhat constant or possibly increased (I am not exactly sure) over the years, while the Area (leg size) has grown smaller due breeder's wish for a faster, more agile horse - thereby increasing the pressure exerted on the horse's limbs. I am sure some of you are wondering what my point is and when I am going to reach it (if you cannot tell). Here it is....in the next 10-20 years pedigree will become irrelevant due to the "industry need" for speed and speed being prevalent over stamina in almost every pedigree. So, in this time frame the number of horses with stamina over speed will lessen...what will happen when there are hardly any horses with distance in their pedigree? Sorry, to get on my soapbox, but this problem is industry wide and will get worse over time.

Gulfstream is a closers nightmare anymore, ill have to review the race and get back later with some picks.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44221

Mike - I understand Gulfstream is a closer's nightmare, but it has been done in the past. I distinctly remember a horse named Great Point closing from the clouds on Barbaro in the Holy Bull a couple of years ago. Albeit on a muddy track, but it can happen. Court Vision also closed from the clouds, even if it was a non-threatening 3rd in the FOY. Besides, I have a feeling Tomcito isn't going to lay too far back since the race is only 1 1/8 miles. Ahhhh....food for thought.

I wanted to share a fact of a couple of years' past. Just for inforamtion purposes of you all, not to brag or state and opinion...

In the running of the UAE Derby that discreet cat won and invasor finished 4th, the horse that finished right behind him in fifth was Dominguin, a peruvian horse. Dominguin was also trained by the same trainer as Tomcito in peru. he has been the leader in the statistics in peru as top trainer for the last 23 years, and his humble opinion is that in a 1 1/4 race Tomcito would beat Dominguin by at least 10 or more...

So, it is probably true that Peru racing is inferior, but once in a while there may come a good one...especially is that good one that raced there is actually a KY bred that happened to end there because of his ackward gait as a yearling....

just as an informative comment...

Good luck to all on saturday's bets...

The point about Gomez and Court Vision is absolutely correct. Mott must have gotten exactly what he wanted out of him in FOY, and Gomez must have liked it. He gets off what ?might? be the best horse in Cali, for a 3rd place finisher with low beyers?????? I like it. I think he was just out to stretch his legs in the FOY and did it very well closing on a speed favoring track to finish a respectable 3rd in his first start of the year. I expect a big effort in what is shaping up as a very good WOOD. I dont think he will be as far back and GO GO needs a Derby to add to his list of big races.

Sergio - I agree with your statements above and remember Dominguin also ran in the same race. Please wish your family good luck and Jorge a safe trip.

Barbeach - I agree. Seems like Gomez thinks highly of CV and that makes me more skeptical of the Cali horses. I definitely like his chance to improve this time out and think it will be a great race.

Gomez chose Court Vision because of two reasons.

1. Court Vision ran a great first race back off the lay, and came running fairly well off the pace on a speed favoring GP track.

2. Gomez's agent feels that Court Vision has a better chance of winning at Aqu, than going up against Georgie Boy in the SA Derby with Col John.

All Court Vision needs is a good top 2 finish in the Wood to get a little added Graded earnings and this should set him up well for the Derby.

VEGAS FUTURES http://letitride.com/LVH_Future_Book_Odds.cfm

Mike,

Do you know on online sportsbook where I can get Big Brown at 60-1??

Mike...

are the veags people correct? they have tomcito at 40-1 and big brown at 60-1...do they not believe the hype on big brown??

thoughts

sripa1212,

Here's the Wynn Las Vegas book odds:

http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/WYNNKD.pdf

They have Elysium Fields at 22-1; Big Brown 25-1; and Tomcito at 60-1.

I'd like to get some action on Tomcito at those odds. Good luck with Tomcito on Saturday.

Thanks Calvin, I was trying to post that, but it wouldn't let me

Everywhere you look the odds will be different. They are all seperate pools. Check out bodog and sportsbook too if you are looking for the best price on a specific horse.

On bodog:

Big Brown 10-1
Tomcito 4-1 (field)

Here's a horse no one is talking about, but I will: ATONED. This horse ran a great race back in the TB Derby after a 3.5 month layoff. Just like in the Remsen last Nov when he got caught late by Court Vision, Johnny V made his move too soon and Big Truck was able to nip him. I guarantee they learned their lesson. This is a horse to keep both eyes on. Pletcher might just have his best shot at winning the Derby with one. I believe they may be pointing him to the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass for his final prep?

Not only did he move too soon in Tampa but also in the Remsen. This horse could be a major player if not for a half-length in each of his last two races. Great odds no matter where he goes. Reminds me of Bluegrass Cat. A horse who didnt do anything wrong but got no respect on Derby day when I believe he was a 30-1 second behind Barbaro. Figures Pletcher will win in the year you least expect.

agree. lots to like. i will definitely keep my eyes on this one. won't play him to win though because pletcher is a choke artist.

jharvat and barbeach, I agree Atoned looks like Pletcher's best and only shot this year. Although, I am not sure he's good enough to win the Derby at this point. If he had a few more starts under his belt this year, it might be a different story. However, I think he will be much better as the year progresses...say around Haskell time he could be a beast. That said, I am not a fan of TP. Sorry, for those who like him.

To all looking at future lines...

I dont undestand how these sportsbooks have so different odds... www.ezsportsbook.com has Tomcito at 100-1...

those are great odds...Im in !!!

No matter who you like if you want to slam them in the double dont leave out my girl in the Oaks...She will be getting a good tightner in the Ashland at Keeneland...............Horse name Country Star
Notes KY Oaks Winner
Activity type Workout
Activity date 03-25-2008
Track Hollywood Park
Surface All Weather Track
Distance 6 Furlongs
Workout type Handily
Workout time 1:11.00
Track condition Fast

HERE IS YOUR TOP GRADED STAKES MONEY LIST http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44129

Atoned headed to Illinois Derby, Blackberry Road to Arkansas

Mike,

I think she was the one to beat last year. However, she has yet to race this year and her form on synthetic doesn't give me much on Oaks Day. I know she has run on dirt before, but wasn't as impressive on it as she is on synthetic. However, when viewing current form, I think Eight Belles is the filly to beat. She has been nominated for the Fantasy and AK Derby so it will make for an interesting day if she runs in the latter. I love the way she has come around this year and think if she beats the boys in the AK Derby, she will be the horse to beat in the Oaks. If you haven't seen her yet, check out her past performances. Looks like she's peaking at the right time.

My comment is really directed to JD's original post. If you are willing to forgive a bad trip, would you agree that El Gato Malo could be 4-4-0-0 if not for a bad trip in the Sham? He ran a so-so time for 9 furlongs due to a slow pace, but his final furlong was pretty good (perhaps adressing distance questions). Of course, the transition from synthetic to dirt is still a big question mark. BTW he recently had a good 7f work with a final furlong of about 10-1/2.

Glen

Mike,

I thought David Carroll said Blackberry Road would go to either the Illinois, or Wood? Why the switch now?

Like I said before, all the futures are different. This is because they are different pools. Thw Wynn's odds ar basd solely on those wagering at the Wynn. Bodog only wagers on Bodog. Letitride, only wagers placed on that site.

This is why the odds are so different. The most honest odds are probably those of the Wynn as more horseplayers and more gamblers in general place their futures there.

Mark i believe there just trying to keep there two horses apart, and borel got the mount back on BBR....Derby yes i seen eight belles and she looks like a beast...Im going to use either her or Pure Clan with Country Star for my doubles...Dont worry about if she will like Churchill i know she will shes out of Empire Maker...As of right now i wont be using any Cali horses at all in my doubles unless i see georgie boy win for fun with some nice fractions...

I would never bet that horse at 100-1 to win the derby. 1 prep race as a 3-year old, are you crazy!

I would never bet Big Brown at 10-1 (Bodog) either. I would need at least 50-1 on him at this point. This will be only his 2nd prep and he has no graded earnings!

If you are looking to play futures, I have finally learned that you must play them in a conventional fassion. By this I mean horses with good 2-year old foundations, a sufficient amount of graded earnings, a 3 prep schedule, and solid connections.

Not J Be K who I played at 100-1 in February at the Wynn. Not Tomcito. Not Big Brown. Probably not anyone in the Florida Derby for that matter.

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – The undefeated and untested Big Brown drew the outside post in a field of 12 3-year-olds entered Wednesday for Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. No horse has ever won a race going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream from post 11 or 12 since the racetrack was reconfigured and lengthened to 1 1/8 miles in 2005.

Derbyfan,

Country Star has never ran on dirt. Her form has not held up in the least (see Grace Anatomy). So I agrree on Eight Belles towering over all challengers at this point. Pure Clan merits respect too, as does Bsharp.

Mike,

Country Star is not out of Empire Maker. Empire Maker has boy parts ;)

Barbaro won the FL Derby from post 10 with solid tactical speed. Big Brown has the same motion, and probably more natural speed. His pedigree shows turf top and bottom, but no real distance limitations. If he breaks well, he can make all the running or tuck over and press or stalk if Da Tara or Face the Cat gun.

Elysium Fields probably drew worst as he'll have a decision whether to show speed an hold his position inside Big Brown and Face the Cat, take back, or go wide. Barbaro's run seems to show that you have to motor out of there and get position in order to win from out wide, but I'm not sure he can run with BB and FTC to the first turn.

Cdpotato,
Disagree slightly on future bet strategy. Betting proven 2 year olds would have gotten me 20-1 on CV. He's around 16-1 - 20-1 now. I'd rather take flyers on horses that might be favorites. I have Elysium Fields at 80-1 and Visionaire at 80-1. I also have several embarrassing wagers I won't discuss here. Adriano was 100-1 last week btw. The other thing is, 12-1 is not a bad price on Derby Day. Of course 50-1 is better, but there's lots of horses that go off at 12-1 that I wouldn't bet at 50-1. In other words, although getting a horse at huge odds is nice when they go off at relatively shorter odds, they still have to win. A winning wager is always a better investment than a loser regardless of odds. I for one am not that tempted seeing a horse at 100-1 that should "only" be at 25-1. Even though I'd make money in the long run, I'd rather not have to lose 24 times before cashing a big one. Just me.

Going over sea's, I like Massive Drama to win at 10-1 or better. Different animal during night racing. Remember his win under the lights at Hollywood Park was brilliant.

Second upset of the evening, Curlin loses to Asiatic Boy. A-Boy odds should be 7-1 or better. Every one knows I am a Curlin fan, But Asiatic Boy simple loves the course.

Sure play of the day. Benny is the sprint champ. Extremely different horse this year, 4-1 I hope?

Big Brown can't win from post 11-12, Mike is right, some statistics are not to be changed. The colts is not this great, against a talented 3 year old field. It would take a great races without any mistakes to become the winner. I only see a wide trip the entire race, and flattens down the lane

Someone had an issue with post 8 for Elysium Fields. No problem here, Here a horse which truly loves the G- park, gets the edge and the nod on the wire. His win will validate Cool Coal Man performance.

Finally, War Pass is the best three year old, unless he is hurt. JD is very much correct, no one here would bet War Pass race is a true indicator of his ability.

He simply ran a clinker. Seattle Slew ran a similar race at Hollywood Park losing to J.O. Tobin. Curlin lose his race to Any Given Saturday, boy did he look bad even though he ran third. Struggle the entire race and down the lane. How great was his performance afterward? The great one do lose when they should win, and for whatever reason, most of the time it is track related. Heck War Pass could of had a little fly in his ear the whole entire race, and know one would have ever knew it, except him. Will see if he burns the show pool again. OUCH!

If he runs hugh in the Wood, and believe he will, War Pass is and should be the Derby favorite, speed or not in the gate with him. There is classic speed and cheap speed. None of the current candidates has display the front end speed of War Pass.

But the most important element to War Pass is his stride late in the stretch. He is not a slacker but a finisher.

My top 4 for the Derby thus far:
1. War Pass
2. Pyro
3. Colonel John
4. Blackberry Road

All else have not displayed the courage of a classic young three year old.
Maybe Dennis of Cork has shown a glimmer, If he can sustain his rally beyond one mile, I will include him in the final fab 5. If not, Court Vision will round out my selections. Court Vision has a desire to keep coming, how can you not appreciate the determination. Who ever runs best in the Wood, get in the fab 5.

Derbyme,

Recheck your facts. Country Star debuted at Belmont Park last year in a MSW race in which she ran 2nd.

Barry,

I like A-Boy as well, but what about the Japanese horse Vermilion? I think he's been as good over the last year, if not better than A-Boy. Besides, he will be a solid price. However, I don't know if they can beat Curlin. He just looks too good coming into the race. Before you go unloading on Massive Drama, remember one thing....no lasix in Dubai. Could make all the difference in the world.

Mike,

I wasn't too pleased with Big Brown's draw as well, but still think he could hit the board. However, I love Tomcito's post and m/l. I am drooling and hope he goes off at 12/1. Chop Chop bring it home!

Through March 24, in Gulfstream Park dirt races of nine furlongs or longer, posts 8 and beyond are a combined 0-for-37. Posts five and beyond are a combined 5-for-114. Eighty-four percent of the races have, therefore, been won from the first four stalls, with the rail slot leading the way at 29%.
Seems to me theres a few that have alot to overcome..Hey Derby remember Tomcito is gonna get first time on the juice that alone with the inside post is huge, only time will tell if hes as good in america as peru.

Over seas ill be boxing Happy Boy with Curlin...At Gulfstream Saturday Sugar Swirl is in finally...She was in last week but they canceled halfway through the card..The only way she will lose is if Javier falls off...

You are exactly right Mike. Although, I am still throwing Big Brown underneath. Probably, play my exacta 4-12 cold or boxed (haven't decided just yet, but will probably box just in case), then 4/8,12/8,12 cold and 4/8/12/all for the super. I agree, time will tell, but I have this overwhelming feeling he runs lights out Saturday. I also like Sugar Swirl, but think Baroness Thatcher will be a big price and could run well. She probably can't beat Sugar Swirl on her best day, but could definitely make it interesting if Sugar Swirl doesn't run well. Race 6 Saturday marks the 4YO debut of Chelokee. This allowance race should be his for the taking. However, he will be the chalk. Sounds like a nice single in the pick 6.

Made an error. Had my tri as 4/8/12, then switched to the part wheel and forgot to remove cold. Seriously debating $20 tri 4/8/12 or 4/12/8 ice cold!

Barry, Mike, DerbyFan78,

Here are the win statistics for the Gulfstream post positions courtesy of Dan Illman of the Daily Racing FormBlog.

Here are the post position stats for nine furlong races at Gulfstream from 2005 to the present (according to DRF database):

1 - 39-184 (21%)
2 - 36-184 (20%)
3 - 28-184 (15%)
4 - 14-184 (8%)
5 - 22-181 (12%)
6 - 19-168 (11%)
7 - 14-134 (10%)
8 - 7-98 (7%)
9 - 3-51 (6%)
10 - 2-27 (7%)
11 - 0-18 (0%)
12 - 0-11 (0%)

sripa1212,

Good luck with Tomcito on Saturday!

Only 11 total starts from the 12 post?

No wonder no horse has won from there. No horse of any quality has probably raced from there. 11 out of 184 starts is statistically insignificant. Now, found out about the 11 horses who did not win from the 12 post, and that is probably worth something.

As usual, another worthless statistic once it is broken down and actually looked at. I agree with DerbyFan 78, a good horse will overcome this post with tactical speed.

On the other had, what is the deal with the low winning percentage from the 4 post, and out of 184 starts, no less?

Thanks for the DRF data, Calvin.

Sripa1212,

I can't seem to find the Derby future wager on www.ezsportsbook.com . Can you instruct me as to how to find it cause I want in on Tomcito too at those odds!

Save your money...All of you save your money.

Play the Tampa 2 on top along with Hey Byrn, Elysium Fields, and Nistle's Crunch.

1,2 / 1,2 / 6,8,9

Take it to the bank!!!

Sripa,

Click on the Demo Login on the Upper Left Section of the page; when it brings up the next page, scroll towards the bottom and under OTHER-HORSES on the lower right you will see 2008 Kentucky Derby, click there and you should get the page with the current futures odds. If you want to make a bet, then you have to sign up for an account. Hope this helps. Stan.

Sorry. Last post goes to Ryan.

Barry,
I agree with you about War Pass. He is not out of the game, with just one bad race. He looked excellant with his breeze.... He's back....

FD, Tomicito, Hey Burn and Big Brown.....

Sirpa, Cant wait to see Tomicito run.

Cdpotato4,

If you like Fierce Wind then why do you not like Da'Tara? They both are trained by Nick Zito and they both posted a 1:52 1/5 while wiring the field at Gulfstream Park. Both have also been working good.

Just curious.

You guys are the best comment-leavers in the blogosphere (I hate that word).

Calvin,

It is not that I don't like Da'Tara. He is eligible to improve in second off a layoff. I just like the Tampa 2 more. Maybe I will include him at the bottom of that TRI though.

I do plan to include him in the late P4. I think you will have to use at least half this field to hit that, and if you do get lucky it should pay nice. Good thing they got a 50 cent P4!

JUSTIN DEW KING OF THE BLOGGERS!!!

Hey Justin

Who writes/edits your bio? A streak of 3 consecutive exactas in the Derby?
I must have missed it when they DQ'd the first nine horses last year so that
No Biz Like Show Biz could win the race and you could cash a ticket instead of
tearing them all up.

The road to the Derby is littered with the bodies of horses like War Pass
who are world beaters at 2, but fall on their face at 3. Unless War Pass runs a
huge race in the Wood, he will be a complete throwout.

Minnispault,

Good catch. I will have someone update it.

Also, you are now my sworn enemy, and #1 on my Bad List.

Hey, I've been reading all the comments for quite sometime. Here's something for you all to research. When was the last time a horse won the derby without posting a 100+ beyer as a two year old? When you see the data it will certainly help you limit the horses you are handicaping.

Thanks a lot Stan. I found it and made a $100 bet at 75-1. If it works out I'll be able to pay for my wedding this year! :)

That aside I think the Florida Derby is going to be a major prep in the Derby picture this year. I think Elysium Fields and Tomcito will be in the first 3 in Florida and will fill 2 of the first 4 places at Churchill. I still think Big Brown can be anything IF HE STAYS SOUND whether or not he's in the first 3 on Saturday. There's no doubting his talent. I think Fierce Wind is going to make it extremely hard for him up front. I have endless respect for Desormeaux though and the way he talks about Big Brown really makes me feel that he could turn out to be the best of them all in time. Whether or not his time is now...we'll see. I think we're in for a barn burner folks! Hold onto your seats.

And to Justin,

I agree with you about War Pass, he is a monster and I've totally tossed the TB race. I also agree that these are the greatest comment-leavers. Even where there is a divergence in opinion the commentary is well articulated and is generally very civilized. These are some knowledgeable people. Keep up the good work!!

Hey, to help any of you who are researching my question. 2002 War Emblem -yes; 2003 Funny Cide - yes; 2004 Smarty Jones - yes; 2005 Giacomo - yes; 2006 Barbaro - yes; 2007 Street Sense - yes; See a pattern?

Fabs - Please verify your statement above. Are you saying Street Sense didn't record a triple digit Beyer as a 2YO? If I am reading that correctly, that is my understanding. Of course, I could be reading it backwards as well. If I am understanding you correctly, that is incorrect he received a BSF of 108 for his win in the BC Juvenile in 2006 @ CD.

I am saying all two year olds who have won the derby since I've handicaped it have run a 100+ beyer as a two year old. There is one other thing that every winner has in common with the exception of Giacomo, you would have bet Afleet Alex instead.

Tomcito: Obviously his form in Peru was dynamite, but the racing there is not on par with the U.S. and now he's running in the Florida Derby, one of the toughest Derby preps around; Zanelli is 7-0-0-2 over the last 5 years with first-time imports from Peru, and some of those were also quite accomplished; let's see a race..

Right now im feeling hey byrn i like him alot...maybe smooth air in my trifecta also especially if its muddy...

Fabs - Understood. Another interesting note - 12 out of the last 16 Derby winners have produced a BSF of 100+ in their 3YO season.

Mike - Agreed about the competition level in Peru, but I think Tomcito is different. Hey Byrn looked impressive, but the same could be said about him, Big Brown, and Tomcito - none of them have beaten stellar fields to this point. So, if you ask me, all three are in the same boat. I find it very unusual Tomcito is cutting back in distance from 12 furlongs to 9 and has won 4 of 5 races with an average win margin of about 10 lengths, while winning from 5 1/2 to 12 furlongs. Regardless of venue, this is very impressive. Heck, I was impressed when Hey Byrn and Big Brown didn't beat anything as well. That said, I am still sticking to my guns. Tomcito on top, with Big Brown/Elysium Field over Big Brown, Elysium Fields, and I think I will throw Fierce Wind in third as well.

DerbyFan78- The derby is won between the 3/4 and 1 mile pole. As crazy as it seems it may be about as simple of a race to handicap as there is. Buy rule one there usually is no more than three horses that have the ability to win. After the second qualifier there is almost always two horses left. After the third rule your home free!Afleet Alex should have been a triple crown winner. Follow what I telling you and you will see that there are only two horses that can possible win the derby as of today!

fabs,

Agree to a point on the 100 beyer requisite. I made the point on another blog that it's much better to start with a horse that's fast enough to win and try to get 10f out of him than start with one that gets better with distance but isn't all that fast. Especially these days, with half the field bred to be milers, at least one of them is bound to go on, and do it faster than true 10f horses might do. Triple digit beyer fig is one way of quickly establishing a horse's true speed. For me, I also like a winning effort or equivalent at 9f prior to the Derby.

As for the FL. Derby... After going back and reviewing race film... Big Brown beat an absolutely horrid field. His race was shockingly similar to the race ran by fellow "outsider" Face the Cat in his allowance score. Big Brown "crushed" 1 for 9 Heaven's Awesome by 14 lengths or so. Face the Cat beat the same horse a month earlier by about 45 lengths. Heaven's Awesome finished last at 45-1 before running 2nd to Big Brown. No one else in that race fired at all. I'd hope Big Brown could crush those, but who in the field wouldn't have?

Big Brown may well be a super star, but he'll have to be to win from the 12. I'll make him prove it at 2-1.

At this point I like:
1. Elysium Fields - Getting better and better, maybe sitting on a breakthrough.
2. Nistle's Crunch - Adds blinkers, wants more ground.
3. Tomcito - Training like a monster, looked like one on youtube.
4. Hey Byrn - Must save some ground somewhere, huge kick.

Taking a stand against the Tampa shippers. Feel they're 1 cut below. Take a stance against the wide speed, don't know if they have enough to get over. Smooth Air, a noted concern. Not sure how far FTC or BB really want to go.

Anyone else gonna be there?

Oh, and large fields mean that Literato might be 4-1 in the Sheema Classic.

Big Brown beat Crimson Comic and Deputiformer in that 3/5 allowance. Heaven's Awesome, a 45-1 longshot merely picked up the pieces when the other horses were run off their feet by the 3rd call. Crimson Comic, with Prado on board, tried to run with BB and actually took the lead between calls but began fading shortly thereafter. CC is a Pletcher trainee, out of Distorted Humor, that won his maiden race against 12 or 13 other 2 year olds last November (24, race 6) at Laurel. The horse won going away by 8-1/2 lengths!
He was on many so-called experts like Jon White's top Derby Contenders to watch list until 3/5 when BB crushed him. CC won his maiden on DIRT convincingly, and Pletcher was looking to bring him back on grass when he ran into BB on 3/5. CC received a 94 speed fig. for his run at Laurel, so he would fit in with the class in this group.

Likewise, Deputiformer, out of Dynaformer, is a graded stakes placed and stakes winning colt out of Cananda. Although turf is obviously his bag, he is no bum either.

Think you better rethink the BB beat nobody argument. They did not fire because they were run off their feet. Also, is it true that the 8 post is 0 for 27 this year at 9 furlongs races at GP? Man, that is worse than the 0 for 11 that BB is running from since 2005 in post 12. BB may not win, but he has beat some decent horses,