I've Had Time To Reflect

I like your rationale on this, Justin. I'm with you. Don't think that The Horse will win the Derby. There are a lot of The Horse backers out there that think if you logically lay out why you're not backing him in the Derby, then you obviously don't like or respect The Horse. Nothing could be further from the truth. I'm glad there's a horse like him in the Derby picture. I've watched his races and they are ulra impressive. He's a beautiful horse with a powerful stride. But I just don't think a 3 race foundation is enough to get him the win. I will say that when I see his 106 Beyer at 1 1/8 compared to the rest of the contenders... he sure stands out. And I don't think he'll necessarily bounce off that figure. But I've laid out my reasons for not backing him in previous posts so I won't belabor them. I'll say this... if The Horse wins the Derby... I will congratulate him and all his backers.

I am in the same boat. The Kentucky Derby is the best race all year to look for value. I may include Big Brown in some exotics but he will most likely not be the horse that I will invest heavily in. If that race would have been in the Wood or the Bluegrass where speed doesn't necessarily dominate, I may have a different opinion.

Stop! "The Horse" wake up JD. Hold the press! did you see the last race of the day? I will not call Big Brown "The Horse" or even the now horse

The last race of the day at the same distance, a track record was set in 1:47 and change.

"Look" I know if you watch the same race over and over and over again, you will be hypnotize into believing what you are seeing is reality.

Don't do it, I begged you my friend. Keep your sanity!

Yea Big Brown toward over the competition. But what was the competition?

Nothing in the race of championship form. Sometimes a million dollar race does not fill as a million dollar race. 13 lengths from 1st to 3rd does not happen in championship racing. Even the last race produce a 8 length winner and a track record.

If Big Brown receive 110 beyers, surely the last race received 115. No way is that 12 race winner a 115 horse. That would mean he is a Curlin look alike.

The track was extremely fast in the late after, the 12 race of the day proves it.

You are seeing two imaginary picture, 1) the competition was not that good, 2) the track was playing fast. Validated by the last race, which no one is talking about!

Get it!

I seen nothing to validate the commentary, sure Big Brown won the race, but with what quality of horses to put any pressure on him during the race. The horse was not rated down the back stretch and if KD would have, it might have choke the horse into defeat.

Always look for the second best race of the day to validate the first.

Except Big Brown race was not the best race of the day but the second of the day.

The first was differently won by a less caliber stakes horse. 75,000 optional buy horse from out west.

Draw a line through everything in the Florida Derby, except Big Brown. It was a good race, but to call the race "The Greatness". It does not rank in the "Top 10"

Do not crown "The Horse" before it's time. I am not completely sold on his ability. The horse did not separate from the field till the home stretch, Champions separate going around the far turn. Like Secretariat!

Excuse the typo, typing fast and did not review!

Barry,

Did you read the entire article?

Justin ... was hoping you could post your estimated odds for Big Brown WITH and WITHOUT War Pass in the starting gate ... obviously if War Pass does another Tampa two-step he will not be in Louisville ... in your eyes does War Pass aid or impair Big Brown's chances to cross the wire in front? ... the major debate around the net right now is whether or not Big Brown would run with War Pass or rate just behind him ... and most seem to believe the latter ... but I cannnot see Big Brown beating Pyro to the line if they are running close together in the first pack ... Pyro has the better breeding and late kick for the final quarter mile ... I believe Big Brown can win but to do so he will need to run them off their feet ... would appreciate your thoughts on "The War Pass Effect" as well as who will be stronger through the lane ... thanks

Justin...

Posts have mentioned BB beyer and brisnet numbers as 106 and 110...should it be adequate to deduct the length difference to get another horse's number? Or would you happen to know those numbers fro Tomcito or where to get them??

there is also ragozin sheets, I hear very accurate, is you or anyone outthere with access to those numbers...And finally how would Tomcito's numbers compare to others in the KY contender list in your opinion....

Thanks

Barry,

The horse that set the track record was Electrify. He's won five of his last seven races, all in stakes company each of those by open lengths. He has 10 wins in 22 starts overall. He also broke from the 2 post, as noted a statistical advantage of + 1.75. Granted, Gulfstream soups up the track for major race days, but Beyer figures do take track variants into consideration, and the 106 he earned seemed pretty on target to me.

You bash the undefeated colt for paragraph after paragraph before saying you're "not completely sold." You can't say that after knocking him down like that.

Secretariot did not seperate until the turn in the Derby and never seperated in the Wood. Your argument contradicts itself when you criticize Big Brown for not being ratable enough, but also not running away from the field early enough. Why go up 12 lengths around the turn in his second start off the shelf off only a handful of works when the big prize is in May?

The Kentucky Derby takes a lot of luck to win, but the best horse still wins a lot of the time. Big Brown may not win, but he is the best horse. Period.

GREAT BLOG!!!! You had me going...should I design a ticket with Big Brown-Pyro-Denis of Cork for a straight trifecta for a second? He is a great horse, but there will be 19 others and at least a dozen of those might be great too. Keep up the great blogs. Always look forward to reading them.

Justin,
Thank you! I thought I was watching a "Great Race" and I am old enough to have watched Secretariet in the Belmont. I have a tendency to listen to what jockey's say about their mounts and Kent Desourmoux is all about this horse.I wish there would be only ten horses coming out of gate May 3rd.The first turn reminds me of the closing laps at Bristol.

Thanks Again!

Impressive perfomance, no doubt. But he wont be on top in my tickets. I'll go against him in a race where the best overall horse often does not win. I will never take a horse to win the Kentucky Derby with such light seasoning. He ran greenly down the stretch of the Florida Derby which is an obvious sign he is still learning how the game works. Not exactly what you want entering a 1 1/4 mi race w/ a 17-20 horse field. I was hearing this same thing about War Pass before he got pounded in the TB Derby. Every week the public and media find a new horse to crown. I will take my chances and look elsewhere. I want to see how Court Vision runs next out. I already like Visionaire. And I still say Atoned is a scary contender with Pletcher flying under the radar with him

Good point about Curlin and the seasoning...And trust me, this horse is no Curlin. If Curlin couldnt do it w/ only three preps, then my take is no horse can do it. Dont get all tangled up in the hype people.

Lots of big performances pre-Derby have blown-up in the Derby itself. Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister... it's awfully dangerous to get excited about any big performance until the field is set and we know how the final round preps shake-out. If War Pass and Big Brown are in the gate, for example, how are they not supposed to kill each other?

Full...of....fire,

I think Big Brown will be 2-1 or lower with or without War Pass.

sripa1212,

Tomcito earned a Beyer of 85 in the FL Derby. That's all I can tell you.

Yes Justin, I read the entire article. As well as everyone is running for second place.

I simply wish you stop watching replays over and over! It's not healthy for you or your pocket to come.

Mr. Derby, I am not impressed by the field or the race. I see no contradiction in my statement.

It's my opinion KD was not given instruction to zip 22 and 45. Jockey never receive those type of instructions.

If "The Horse" flattened out, you and everyone here would have KD head on the chop block! for not slowing down the pace.

The horse was not rated anytime during the race because he can't be rated. Anyone who runs 22 and 45 and change going a distance of ground, never is? They are full out throttle. Granted the horse still pull it off. But you should know, must horses can't not recover in one month from such a hard race.

Trainers usually take 2 months rest.

Maybe a older horse can pull it off, but not the young horses. Big Brown ran his race early and it has cost him any chance at the Kentucky Derby.

I am sure the owner and trainer told KD, shot from the gate for position and slow the pace down the back stretch, and save something for the lane and Kentucky Derby.

Tell me why KD was not gearing down the colt in the lane with a five length lead.
The race was over entering the stretch, no treat from anyone.

Tell me why the colt enter the stretch in the 5-6 path and KD had to pull the colt back to the rail late.

The colt was full out throttle and uncontrollable the entire race.

KD look like he was sitting very still the whole trip down the back stretch, so the horse was doing it all on his own.

To me the colt can not be rated and is one dimension.

I believe the winner of this year Kentucky Derby, must rate in the 47 and come home in 23 an change.

If this is bashing the colt. Sorry, I am looking for a winner on Kentucky Derby day.

POOL 3 http://www.drf.com/entries/03/eSPL03.html#3 No way he runs that kind of figure back to back,,

Keeneland friday race#3 i I love the 6 horse Notonthesamepage they have to catch him, no odds are out yet...

I also like Japengo in the 5th

Big Brown will have a much tougher race in the Derby and tested from all angles. Leaning with Justin, Mike, Barry, et al., that he will/cannot win. Although, I will throw him underneath in my exotics. CD surface will be much different than GP and should be more of an unbiased track. Another interesting angle for me is how quickly a horse ships in for the Derby. While it isn't always indicative of performance, I think it helps the horse to get acclimated with the madness that is CD - especially Derby week. Oddly enough, Dutrow has said he will not ship until at least two weeks out. Something doesn't add up....both starts on dirt at a GP (speed bias track), probably (or most likely) one work prior to Derby over CD strip...sounds like a strange recipe for success....just my thoughts and I am, by no means, a trainer. Just think coming into the Derby is a little different than any other stakes race. Anyone else care to comment?

Mike: "No way he runs that kind of figure back to back"
- Big Brown ran a 104 Beyer and paired a 106 on the stretch out. So he'll bounce back to the 104 which he ran off 2 works? That's still probably good enough to win the Derby. Who else has paired 100+ beyers?

"Speed bias.." - The race before his allowance score Ready's Echo came from dead last to win going away.

http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GP032908USA.pdf

Horses were coming from everywhere on Saturday, far cry from January.

Barry please go to this website and listen to what Dutrow had to say on Monday about "The Horse". He is BEGGING War Pass to run well in the Wood and make the Derby. He says that IF War Pass goes, he wants to sit about 3 lengths off of him and make first run. Also, there has not been a prep yet that has had a solid field of 4 or 5 horses that are of quality. The LA Derby was probably the closest race but the supposed quality was coming off a layoff. I think these last preps will be the deepest and prove that some other preps were not as good as they looked before.

www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com click on broadcast archive, then listen to Mondays first hour.

Barry,

Electrify is NOT an allowance horse or claimer. He has won 5 of his last 7 with one polytrack flop in the Sunshine Millions. He earned a 109 Beyer for his STAKES win, by 8 3/4s over stakes proven Rehoboth. His number placed him a point behind Heatseaker and tied with Go Between for their Big Cap efforts. That is not in Curlin's leage, not even close. Curlin ran a 119 in the Breeder's Cup. The number seems to stick. The track was quick that day and numbers take variance into account.

Electrify is NOT a westerner. He is a Calder based horse and, I believe, a Florida bred. You are a westerner no? How do you not know that? Your circuit isn't that big. I won't be mean, but your argument lacks credibility at this point.

As far margin of victory.. Curlin won a race by 4.5 with another 4.75 to 3rd place finisher. Oh yeah, that was the Classic. So apparently you don't beat $1mil fields by open lengths, but $4mil fields you can?

If you want to play against, go with the 3 starts or no foundation or no value arguments.

Now cheer up, cheer for you're Colonel John and when he finishes thrid behind Yankee Bravo and El Gato Malo, take solice in the fact that I have yet to see a good dirt horse run well at SA this spring or vice versa.

DerbyFan,

Your angles sound reasonable to me. However, 2 weeks out to ship to CD should be ok. I put more stock in how a horse handles the surface once there and how he looks in his work(s). Nobody is better in reporting on that phase than the DRF's Mike Welsch. Keep an eye out for his training reports prior to the Derby.

Mike B., several Derby winners of the last decade have paired similar and/or better Beyers. Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, FuPeg, Real Quiet, Silver Charm. So it can be done. I'm in the 3 starts, lack of foundation/seasoning, and no value camp when siding against BB. I said before that I don't necessarily think he'll bounce (stagger home back by 10 or more). But I'm still weighing whether to use him underneath in exotics. Want to see how he's doing coming up to the race.

I'm a West Coaster and think highly of Colonel John. I expect a solid performance this week. I don't think he needs to win to still be a contender. I do think that he should run no better than third by 4-5 lengths or if not that would be a bad sign. I'd like to see a decent final time for the race too. 1.48-149.60 or so. Despite the synthetic surface argument against the West Coasters, I do think Colonel John will handle dirt just fine being out of Tiznow. And there's Turkoman on the bottom side. Anyways, looking forward to this weekends preps as they should determine a lot with handicapping the big race.

Meant Colonel John should run "no WORSE than third by 4-5 lengths or a bad sign" in prior post.

So Derby, are you saying a match race will occur between War Pass and Big Brown as the stalker?

Reminder! when War Pass has had the lead in each race, no one has been able to get by.

I like to hear read your opinion on the 22 and 45 splits, do you think KD was rating or the horse was full throttle?

What do you think the trainer instructions were?

Where do you draw the line out of the finishers, in the Florida Derby as legitimate contender?

barry,

think you must be referring to me. I do not think it is a match race. far from it. Big Brown doesn't so much stalk as press, as in applying pressure every step of the way before cracking them. He does not need the lead, nor am I convinced he can be taken back behind horses, but he is also not really disadvantaged by a slightly wide run. If 8 other horses gun for the lead and KD decides to drop him midpack and rate, he might very well be compromised, I think Bellamy Road may have won the Derby if he had gotten out and grabbed the lead at any point (Closing Argument was a close 2nd). If no one wants any piece of War Pass and Big Brown Early, War Pass will probably lead them as far as he can, and Big Brown will press him the whole way. You say War Pass has never lost on the lead. Big Brown has never lost period.

The fractions were quick. You yourself said the drying track sped up noticably by afternoon. Were the fractions ideal? No, but Big Brown had no choice with $0 in earnings, he had to be ridden for position. Was he on full throttle, probably close. Dutrow said that once he got clear and got over, he knew he'd win, so I'd say trainer instructed for speed. Finally, Gulfstream routes have consistently been tiring with each fraction run slower than the prior. The Gulfstream horses will have a huge fitness edge on the Cali horses which gallop merrily before firing home the final 3/16ths.

Legit contenders from the FL Derby would be the ones you expect, the top 3 and Elysium Fields based on breeding if he gets in. BTW, it's amazing how many dominating performances there have been at GP before a total flop in the next. Think Game Face, Jockey Ridge, Da Tara, Kentucky Bear, Mr. Umphrey, etc. More proof of the tiring nature of the track. Elysium Fields and Big Byrn ran 2 huge races and may have come up a bit tired in the FL Derby. Both could bounce back in a few weeks and win the Lexington.

It took me till "the single greatest performance in the history of horse racing" to pick up the sarcasm. I'm well entrenched on the Pyro bandwagon (www.pyroderby.com) and can't see Big Brown holding him off. Picture the scenario of having War Pass up front, with Big Brown 2 to 3 lengths back pressing, as opposed to stalking. The problem with this is that they could lope along on the lead (perhaps 23 3/5 and 47 4/5) and get away with it - leaving a little more gas in the tank to hold of the established closers. I don't think Pyro will get too far back (7th-11th) down the back stretch but I like the idea of Steve Asmussen running Z Fortune regardless of how he runs in the Arkansas Derby, with a view to keeping them honest up front!
Pyromaniac!

Didn't you write the same sarcastic piece last year? I think it was about Flying First Class or Curlin. This time I actually disagree with you. I don't think they should run the race...to many good horse's could get "Shammed" and never run again. It should just be paddock show with BB.

Barrier Reef returns Friday in Keeneland's Transylvania Stakes (9) on Turf.

I predict The Horse Whose Name We Do Not Speak wrecks his feet in the Derby and we never see him on the track again. Either that or we're going to see another catastrophic injury in the Preakness. I'm probably one of the few who thinks The Horse doesn't belong in the Derby, for his own good. It's not just his foot problems, but the soundness problems in his pedigree, top and bottom.

Is barrier reef the winner on Friday?

Ill take Free Fighter the 8

do you think speed will hold on opening day for Notonthesamepage.....i thought last year on opening day the track was dead

I like the chalk Prussian (4) in that one. There is very little speed and I believe Prussian can hold them off at 1 1/16m. The only concern is he is coming off a long layoff.

When they first installed the polytrack I thought Keeneland made a complete turn around to favor closers. However, after handicapping and watching all the Keeneland races at last year's spring meet, I came up with a different conclusion.

It seemed that the trainers and jockeys seemed to figure it out as well. As the meet went on, more and more horses were winning on the front end. Silent Name. Slew's Tizzy.

The reason why the front runners weren't winning before that is because they hugged the rail the whole way. I concluded that you can't run on the rail at Keeneland. Silent Name and Slew's Tizzy and many others won on the lead while in the 2-3-4 paths.

Contrary to what some may think, I believe the new Keeneland is a very fair track.

Justin, yeah I agree there is a lot to worry about leading up til derby day with Big Brown, but is he makes it there looking good I will believe my eyes and bet him to win and on top of other wagers. I would definitely hold off on future wager pool #3, and would like to wait until about 20 seconds before the gate opens on May 3rd...Maybe I should get some Pyro coverage in pool 3 because I don't want to waste my Derby day bankroll on a horse I think is second best. I will not let Pyro ruin my day, however.

mcmitch,

Recycling material is my greatest fear. I really, really hope I didn't play this card in 2007. That would be a bummer. But I'm too lazy to check.

I love value! Thank God for horses like War Pass, Pyro, & Big Brown because they increase the value of the other 17 horses going into the gate on Derby Day. You guys can play chalk and collect meager winnings and little credit but give me horses like GIACOMO (52-1) my brother picked him), CLOSING ARGUMENT (72-1)(my wife picked him), LIMEHOUSE (90-1)(I picked him) who will goose the Derby exotics and you will be screaming when they come running down the stretch and bragging for years to come! Come on, guys, shoot for the moon! Tell me some value plays who will goose the Derby exotics? LIBERTY BULL (50-1)?...TALE OF EKATI (30-1)? YANKEE BRAVO (30-1)? ATONED (30-1)? SMOOTH AIR (50-1)? GAYEGO (30-1) TOMCITO (30-1)? BLACKBERRY (50-1)? Start talking about your value plays in the exotics! Hell, my dead grandfather can pick War Pass, Pyro, & Big Brown! Give some life and excitement to this Blog!

Justin have you stop watching the video yet, time to take you medicine.

If your still watching the video of "the horse" (small caps), I will recommend shock therapy.

Many weeks till the Kentucky Derby, the DRF has place Big Brown in the number one column. Pyro second and War Pass third.

It will be interesting to see their selections if War Pass wins easily this weekend as suspected. Victorius on five different racing surfaces (SAR, BEL, MTH, GP , AQU), where as Big Brown has only races on GP dirt surface. Not counting the turf race.

Okay, I will agree Big Brown has triple beyers races, all which were two turn distances race, but on the same racing surface.

Does that make me worry about his preparation? YES, major question if he may be able to transfer to Churchill Downs surface.

War Pass has triple beyer races as a two year old over a distance of ground.

I believe if War Pass wins this weekend in triple beyers, he will remain the Derby favorite and should in my book compared to pass Derby favorites. Sporting Racing experinece on multiple tracks, Proven stakes winner on various main circuit track, classic speed over a distance of ground, last year reigning two year old champ and breeder cup winner, top trainer which has won the classic races before. His resume cannot be denied. Until you beat the champ, you don't deserve top billing.

War Pass is the top rated beyers of any three year old, ran as a two year old. The 97 beyers first out was with great ease under wraps! If extended could have ran 105-110 first crack out.

The DRF is very wrong to transpose the top seat with the champ's major prep races this weekend. I can only imagin how much egg will be wipe off if War Pass puts up the performance we come to know!

Everyone should be concern with a one track reference, to merit greatness! In my book that is no idea handicapping!

Justin have you stop watching the video yet, time to take you medicine.

If you’re still watching the video of "the horse" (small caps), I will recommend shock therapy.

Many weeks till the Kentucky Derby, the DRF has place Big Brown in the number one column. Pyro second and War Pass third.

It will be interesting to see their selections if War Pass wins easily this weekend as suspected. Victorious on five different racing surfaces (SAR, BEL, MTH, GP, and AQU); where as Big Brown has only races on GP dirt surface. Not counting the turf race.

Okay, I will agree Big Brown has triple beyers races, all which were two turn distances race, but on the same racing surface.

Does that make me worry about his preparation? YES, major question if he may be able to transfer to Churchill Downs surface.

War Pass has triple beyers races as a two year old over a distance of ground.

I believe if War Pass wins this weekend in triple beyers, he will remain the Derby favorite and should in my book compared to pass Derby favorites. Sporting Racing experience on multiple tracks, Proven stakes winner on various main circuit tracks, classic speed over a distance of ground, last year reigning two year old champ and breeder cup winner, top trainer which has won the classic races before. His resume cannot be denied. Until you beat the champ, you don't deserve top billing.

War Pass is the top rated beyers of any three year old, ran as a two year old. The 97 beyers first out was with great ease under wraps! If extended could have ran 105-110 first crack out.

The DRF is very wrong to transpose the top seat with the champ's major prep races this weekend. I can only imagine how much egg will be wipe off if War Pass puts up the performance we come to know!

Everyone should be concern with a one track reference, to merit greatness! In my book that is no idea handicapping!

DrMax,

I've called him this year's Giacamo, but he'll need a good finish in his next to get earnings. Improving with seasoning and distance, Medjool could hit the board at a huge price. Gayego will probably win the Arkansas Derby, but could still be a price. Big Truck and Smooth Air are both improving grinders who could clunk up at huge odds. I'll take Medjool, if he gets in, Smooth Air if he doesn't.

I like Prussian in the Transilvania. Mainly because of the pace scenario and he is the class of the field. Also, Mott is money off the layoff, hitting with a 21% clip with horses coming off of layoffs ranging from 2-6 months. Riley Tucker too is a live shot because he also has some speed and he ran very well on his only polytrack start, which is similar to turf.

The best price play is Visionaire at 20-1 morning line, this horse is under the radar and you better get some in pool 3 because what if he upsets Pyro next week>???? The first time they met he was beat by Pyro but 2 1/2 but Visionaire was right up front that race trust me he wont be anywhere near the front this time....

Majestic Warrior, who finished sixth in the Florida Derby last Saturday, is off the Derby trail, according to trainer Bill Mott, who said Majestic Warrior would be pointed to the Grade 3, $150,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on April 26, and then, if all goes well, the Preakness three weeks later.

Mike - Agree with you on Visionaire. Matz tends to work his horses on synthetic tracks quite often and so it won't be something new for the horse to overcome. Also love the fact Pyro will get hammered at the windows and be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2/5 - even money. So, I like Visionaire to win this race in the range of 3/1 - 9/2. Although, the complexion could change a bit if some of the CA contingency comes to run.

Don't get me wrong folks. I am taking nothing away from Big Brown, but don't think he will get it done in the big dance. While I will admit his performance was visually impressive, I don't think he was tested the slightest bit. Say what you want, but when he runs over the CD surface it will be a different story. The surface, is quite often, deeper and more tiring than other dirt tracks. For me, this is the "X" factor and will be his undoing. He may get third on talent alone or possibly second, but my opinion seems to have changed over the last couple of days (and several race replays). Especially, when considering races of previous years by horses like Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister, and yes, Curlin. All three were extremely impressive in their final prep races, but couldn't get it done in the Derby. Yes, Curlin went on to become an incredible horse and the other two did not. However, I also like to see it from a different angle. The talent definitely needs to be there, but racing luck and a good ride also play a major role in the success of the horse in the Derby. Because of these factors (and a few others), the best horse does not always win the race. I also wonder if Kent D. will move prematurely like he did with Sweetnorthernsaint (I know the horse didn't have a prayer) or send to the front and be scorched after the opening half while attempting to run with War Pass on the front end. Even though I also like War Pass, I am not saying he will win either -just stating the obvious. Comments?

DerbyFan,

I agree with much of what you say in your posts, but I think with Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister and Curlin you are kind of comparing apples to oranges with the first two, and Curlin's form and running style are completely different from Big Brown's (although they both were dominant in their first 3 races). Big Brown has more tactical speed early on than Curlin does-his running style is similar to Hard Spun's in that respect. Recall how Hard Spun went out and seized the lead in both the Kentucky Derby and the BC Classic, and ran the horses around him off of their feet. Horses with that kind of speed and stamina can get to where they need to be. With War Pass's presence, ideally BB would press about 2 lengths back or so from WP if WP can get the lead. I am not sure the track at CD is any more tiring than GP, although the stretch is a little longer and the race is 10 furlongs to begin with. If BB can get 10 panels, I really do not think any pace scenario will be his undoing. I do not see a speed duel, although I do see BB going for the lead as they enter the second turn. Can he get seperation from WP and hold off the closers? That is why they run the race. But I agree his lack of foundation may make it difficult to gauge how he will react if he gets in trouble, so his connections may want to keep BB outside.

As for Sinister Minister and Bellamy Road, SM was never really the same since his 11-1/2 length romp at Keeneland on the dirt. Baffert claimed he developed a late injury from the BGS that manifested itself in the Derby. In any event, it was clear 10 panels was beyond SM's reach when Keyed Entry faded, SM had the lead coming out of the 2nd turn and Barbaro blasted by SM from off of that one's shoulder and romped home for victory. I think SM was a pure speedball who barely broke his maiden, ran poorly twice before the BGS and then had one freak race in the BGS where he went nuts. There is no comparison to Big Brown, who has dominated each of his races and been consistently classy and willing to rate. SM was unratable.

Bellamy Road? That one had been defeated in his last race as a 2 year old, faded to 6th after setting the pace. BR was another need the lead type, who won a 1 mile allowance by multiple lengths for Zito as a 3 year old, and then freaked at Aq. in the Wood getting loose on the lead. His BSF for the Wood was a 120. His Beyers leading up to that race were 76 and 92. Clearly, the 120 BSF screamed bounce and was way out of line with BR's earlier efforts. BB, conversely, has run a 96, 104 and 106 BSF in his 3 races (the 1st on turf). All pretty much in line and a linear progression. It was obvious BR was a need the lead horse in a bad post, in a race with numerous speed horses such as Spanish Chestnut and High Fly, who figured to beat him to the lead.

Once again, what you are saying is possible, just not likely. And its apples to oranges.

Has any horse ever won the Kentucky Derby racing on a single surface before?

I really don't know, but I am interested to finding out.

Who has the statistic on here?

I can't think of any, at least in the past 15 years. But, have you ever seen the Juvenile winner win the derby? How about a derby winner off of 2 preps. How about a 5 week layoff?

I'm not saying Big Brown will win the derby, I am saying that this isn't the reason why you toss him.

Maybe say he can't because of the lack of a fondation or his running style.

Good question Barry. I have no idea. Perhaps Justin can help with this one? Valid point Cdpotato4. Of course, on the opposite end of the spectrum, records have to be broken at some point. I am not saying it will be this year, but it could. The next few weeks are going to provide several interesting races and give us more angles than we could ever imagine. Hopefully, War Pass, DOC, and El Gato or Colonel John provide some fireworks this weekend. Personally, I think War Pass will rebound well - especially with the forecast....80% chance of rain. Although, that doesn't bode well for Court Vision or Giant Moon. However, the potential for an off track definitely makes you look twice at Texas Wildcatter. Let's just hope they all come home safely. Does anyone think Z Humor has a shot in the Ill. Derby? He hasn't done anything this year and I think Atoned could probably win the race, just curious what everyone else thinks. Opinions?

I'm looking for Texas Wildcatter to run 1st or 2nd in the Wood and stamp his ticket to the Derby. I was impressed with Denis of Cork's Southwest. I would expect a top effort in the Illinois Derby. But if he makes the Derby, I don't think he'll win. Question how he's been handled and the path he's taken. Think Atoned should be ready to run a big one after his TB Derby effort and a win is possible. I like Colonel John for the Derby and think he just needs to finsh in the top 3 in the SA Derby and run a strong the last quarter.

DerbyFan,

I also like Atoned and Z Humor in the Illinois. Contrary to slot33's take of the Southwest, I think Denis of Cork is extremely overated. 1 mile in 1:37^4, no thank you. That is a full 17 lengths off the track record. I don't particularly care for that field either, yes Sierra Sunset and Liberty Bull came back to win stakes races making it a key race, but who did they really beat. Noone.

Atoned looked good in his return and its his second off a layoff. As Mike mentioned, Pletcher does seem to do well in the Illinois.

As far as Z Humor goes, it is not so much that I like him as it is that I am willing to excuse his recent performances. In the Sam F, he was off a layoff and some seem to have trouble shipping to Tampa. Then he ran in the FOY 1 week later and actually did pretty good considering the short break (4th). He competed with Pyro and War Pass as a 2year old so I will give him another shot here.

Oh ya, I haven't read the program yet so this is pre-PPs.

What do you all think the chances are that Adriano ends up running in the derby? Also, what will be the final graded earnings needed to get into the derby? do you think at 132k Tomcito is in or needs more?

According to the connections, Adriano isn't going to run in the Derby. However, this could change at any given moment. Also, Tomcito's earning have been updated or modified (however, you see it) and are at 152K. So, I think he's a lock. If he were around 100K, I would say he needs more. Last year, it seems like Imawildandcrazyguy had around 130K and was the last horse in. This year seems to be different as it looks like several ranked in the top 20 will not run, i.e. Georgie Boy, Kodiak Kowboy (spelling?), Turf War, Adriano, Majestic Warrior, etc. So, I would say the last horse in this year may be around 100K. Let's see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

Cdpotato4,

I agree DOC may be slightly overrated and am not impressed by his time, but the same can also be said of Pyro's race times. He hasn't exactly lit it up this year, but has looked impressive doing it. From a wagering perspective, I will be playing Atoned and Z Humor. The latter of the two should be double digit odds and I like the fact this will be his third start off a layoff. Perhaps, DOC will run third behind Atoned and Z Humor? Atoned will probably be around 7/2 and Z Humor 8/1. So, it would make for a nice exacta. Very intriguing. Another intriguing horse this weekend could be Coast Guard. He ran second to Crown of Thorns in the Bob Lewis and could be a wiseguy horse in the SA Derby. Not to mention, his odds will be fairly large. Anyone else care to comment?

Correction. I was shooting from the hip and just realized Z Humor is 3/1 on the M/L. Don't know if he will go to 8/1, but can see 5/1 at post time.

Hey, Derbyme, "atswhatimtalkinabout" Thank you! I love your value picks - especially Gayego (88-1)! I have similar opinions and intuitions about him and the other horses you mentioned. In fact, before I read your comments, I had just finished checking their odds in the KDerby Futures Pool # 3 and I am salivating! I will wager a little on a a few bombers in Pool # 3 but my main bets will involve placing them in exotics on Derby Day. My brothers and I do a $1.00 Superfecta Box with 7-horses for $840.00. You never know? No, you never know! Good luck with this weekends derby Preps! - DrMax944

Bob Black Jack would have dominated that Illinois Derby field, now he will split the field in the Santa Anita Derby. Dennis of Cork does not have much to do. He's a true router and should get another legit pace. Z Humor is a smart miler at best. Atoned never should have lost the Tampa Derby, but has a right to move up. Still, at 9f, DOC seems a lock. Those 2.

I was a big fan of the Wildcatter after his philly win, then Wincat flopped at GP (ran at philly same day) and Wildcatter flopped at Aq (3rd behind Barrier Reef). Looked much more professional last time, but think he moved up on dirt. Can't wait to see the real Court Vision. He'll be much closer and make a run earlier I imagine, he needs a hard race to get some bottom. Roman Emperor struggled in the slop but should relish the extra distance and looms a giant long shot. War Pass is a coin flip. Better prices playing against then on I imagine. I'll use those 3. Inner Light ran huge defeating talented and quick Jockey Ridge (in the Bayshore), looks push button type and will get a solid trip just off the pace, but I think he's coupled with the top choice.

Santa Anita's main track = turf. Turf = Yankee Bravo. Can't imagine who'll get the better run down the stretch between him and EGM, but I know who'll be the better price. Colonel John looked unbelievable in his last work. Unbelievable. I did not think his 2 year old form held up, but he seems to have improved drastically, and looks like derby horse. Like that other big horse I saw at GP last Saturday.

Bay Shore is probably all about J Be K, but I'll try Jockey Ridge one last time. Still wondering where Ready's Echo will show up next.

Eight Belles to crush again, poor Pure Clan may find Big Brown and Pyro more appealing than facing this one a third time. Let's just hope Country Star romps so I can get 5-2 come Oaks Day. (Let's hope Pyro romps next week for the same reason).

Im with you Derby im waiting on Readys Echo hes in my stable mail, he looked like a STAR last out closing from the clouds at the almighty conveyor belt Gulfstream...

War Pass=Stormello

War Pass 30-1 on May 3.

agreed, and I still wouldn't spend a buck on that price. Quite sad the way this field finished. Pathetic fractions.