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Uncertainty Ahead, Confusion Behind

posted by Justin Dew on April 10, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Colonel John takes down Santa Anita Derby: (Photo by: Benoit)Colonel John takes down Santa Anita Derby: (Photo by: Benoit)

I watched last weekend’s round of Derby preps in the racebook at The Borgata in Atlantic City, where there was no place to sit and I couldn’t hear a single race call because they never turn up the sound. But I DID get a bunch of free drinks.

I wasn’t optimistic about War Pass’ chances after his swift opening quarter in the Wood. Still, I thought he ran well. It was disappointing for me to see him lose, but he definitely rebounded off the Tampa dud, and I think we’d all agree that he’s earned the right to give the Derby a try. Can he make it the extra 1/8th? Hey, I have no idea. I doubt he will have to run so fast so early in the Derby, and that can only help his chances. But maybe I’m wrong. And maybe, after two efforts that couldn’t have done a whole lot for his conditioning, he just needed the race on Saturday. If that’s the case, then we can probably expect him to be at his best on May 3rd.

Tale of Ekati wasn’t really on my Derby radar before his debut at Fair Grounds, and he certainly wasn’t on it after that race. But he’s clearly going to Louisville now (in fact, I think he’s already there, isn’t he? Or is he still in New York?). Look, someone had to win the Wood, and with War Pass struggling to make it the final few furlongs, Tale of Ekati kind of inherited the race, in my opinion.

All in all, I kind of feel like the Wood was a disappointment. I didn’t plan to bet on War Pass in the Kentucky Derby before the Wood, and I doubt I will bet him at this point. But I will be rooting for him to win because I think he is the best horse in this bunch based on all I have seen so far, and because I really like Nick Zito. My money, however, is likely to go elsewhere….at least the bulk of it.

And before we move on, Court Vision has me all kinds of frustrated. But that’s a discussion for another time.

In all honesty, I had still never heard of Recapturetheglory seconds after he crossed the finish line as the winner of the Illinois Derby. I never even handicapped the race because the Daily Racing Form I bought at The Borgata did not include Hawthorne. So as I watched the race and noticed that neither Denis of Cork nor Atoned were firing, I asked the guy next to me “Who is that on the lead?” Unfortunately, he was watching harness racing, and didn’t even know the Illinois Derby was being run.

I’m not sure what to make of Denis of Cork’s schedule this spring. Nor am I sure what to make of his effort on Saturday. He had been off for a while, and was forced to close into a slow pace after appearing to have some trouble early. Atoned was also too far back, apparently, and he may not be good enough on top of that. Z Humor ran his best race this year, but I still don’t consider him a top Kentucky Derby contender.

At the end of the day, I don’t see myself using any of the Illinois Derby runners in my Derby Day wagers.

I had a large win bet on Bob Black Jack in the Santa Anita Derby. So while I was bummed to see Colonel John (called “Colonial John" by a Borgata patron) come storming home to win, a least we got to see another true Derby win-candidate emerge. I’d be lying if I said I knew what to think about the “synthetic surface issue”. Part of me thinks Colonel John will be a runner on any surface, and part of me thinks his closing kick is aided by the fake stuff and that he may not be able repeat his recent efforts on dirt. But some West Coast horses ran well back East on dirt last weekend after prepping on synthetic surfaces, so to say that Colonel John has every right to run well on dirt is an understatement.

I hated to see El Gato Malo flatten out, and his connections had to hate it too. Bob Black Jack might actually like dirt better, but the Derby distance could be just too far for him.

As for this weekend, we have a battle over the pretend dirt in the Blue Grass, and a full field in Arkansas. Let’s be honest. Anything can happen in either race, and the only surprise will be if there are no surprises. I really want to see if either Visionaire or Monba takes that proverbial next step forward. And why do I get the feeling that Cool Coal Man is flying about 15 miles under the radar and is headed to Lousiville totally unnoticed? His running style may not be an asset at Keeneland anymore, so even a poor effort should not dissuade Team Zito from sending him on to the Kentucky Derby. I am really, really starting to warm up to this guy as I watch the bulk of this crop continue to disappoint.

Also, I see that the connections of Salute The Sarge say the horse is “likely to bypass the Kentucky Derby”, which means he only has an 80% chance of running. Elysium Fields and Turf War are both “definitely” not running, which translates to a 10% chance.

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full...of...fire!

04/10/2008 9:03 am

Justin ... what are the odds that there will be less than 20 starters at the gate in louisville? ... at this point I am counting War Pass, Tale of Ekati, and Court Vision from the Wood ... Colonel John and Bob Black Jack from California (BBJ is no cinch to run) ... The Horse, Smooth Air, and Tomcito from Florida ... dunno who except Recapturetheglory from Illinois ... Adriano (possibly) from Turfway ... that makes ten ... if Pyro, Cool Coal Man, and Visionaire take all the money at Keeneland, that makes thirteen ... figure in the top three from Arkansas (I would guess, but maybe not) ... sixteen ... one more apiece from the Lexington and Holy Bull (a big maybe) ... which makes eighteen total with some undecideds ... who am i missing? ... could this happen? ... it is my thought that the derby should be limited to 14 starters anyhow, to insure the fairest race possible ...

mike barker

04/10/2008 10:36 am

There will be 20 starters for sure, and i agree with you Justin seems like the more races they run the more disappointments there are .

eaoa89

04/10/2008 11:13 am

Justin-

Had BBJ in the contest at Arlington so the second helped a little, but not as much as were he to hold on. In my opinion out of those races, the 2 most impressive horses were the 2 second place horses, BBJ and War Pass. No one went wire to wire at SA on Saturday on the dirt (or whatever the track is made of now) so for him to hold on that long showed me something, as did the fact that he's willing to rate. And you can say whatever you want about War Pass but he held well over a track that was drying out, and I don't care whether you're man or beast, having a couple of staples put into your head 24 hours before a race has to slow you down a little. I'm leaning towards going with War Pass at the Derby, and the TB disaster along with the fact that he didn't win the Wood may be a "blessing in disguise" in that it's going to make the price palatable on Derby Day. Smooth Air is intriguing but got him at 159/1 already, and my crazy price shot is Z Humour but got him in pool one, and as part of "all others" in pool 3, so they're taken care of. And besides, think of the horses who've run 2nd in their last prep only to win the Derby (Street Sense and Funny Cide off the top of my head, and I'm sure there are more)

Cdpotato4

04/10/2008 12:05 pm

I'll toss Big Brown with a 5 week break and only 2 preps.

Everyone from the Wood is a toss on derby day. 1:52^2 is embarrassing.

Don't like horses switching from cushion to dirt so I'll toss the Cal horses.

Illinois has a front-runner rail bias so Recapturetheglory may be a toss. I am still debating this one though.

I am interested to see what Gayego does this weekend, but like I said I don't like the cushion to dirt angle.

THE 2008 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER WILL COME OUT OF THE BLUEGRASS AGAIN! I just don't know who it is yet. I'll let you know on Sunday.

THE TOP 2 IN LAST YEAR'S DERBY WENT FROM POLY TO CHURCHILL!

jharvat

04/10/2008 1:28 pm

I'm done searching. I thought I would see some nice development and maturing with these preps and I have not. I have seen more regression than progression. I've come to the conclusion that there just isnt much to work with in this crop of 3 year olds. I dont care what happens this weekend. I have narrowed it down to these three: Pyro, Colonel John & Visionaire. All three have impressed me over all the others with big stretch moves in their most recent preps. I like the confidence in Asmussen with Pyro and Harty & Nakatani with Colonel John. I like the connections for all three, especially Win Star w/ Colonel John and Team Valor w/ Visionaire. No sense in digging to deep with this bunch of 3 year olds. Trust your eyes with what you have already witnessed.

ryanmoseley

04/10/2008 3:55 pm

Justin,

I just worte a long comment and it was "flagged" as potential spam until the administrator reviews it. Can you look into it for me please. Thanks. It was an analysis of the only 3 possible winners of the Derby. Thanks so much.

ryanmoseley

04/10/2008 3:55 pm

Justin,

I just worte a long comment and it was "flagged" as potential spam until the administrator reviews it. Can you look into it for me please. Thanks. It was an analysis of the only 3 possible winners of the Derby. Thanks so much.

mike barker

04/10/2008 5:44 pm

I think Visionaire is sitting on a big race what do you think Justin???

barryrmitchell

04/10/2008 5:50 pm

Ryan, if your message were flag spam contact Linda Ackins (502) 636-4890 or Jeremy Borseth (502) 773-2167
Ask for the message to be released. It must have had a word which they consider to be sensitive. Hope this will help!

JD. War Pass race was better than it actually indicated. The 22 first quarter is of course the making for a losing race in anyone book! But your right, War Pass notably improvement and will progress forward off the Wood. Let's consider the race a chance to blow out his lungs kind of a deal. I think his race was exactly what the doctor ordered, should improve several lengths.

My last year Breeders Cup juvenile selection was Tale of Ekati. I also felt this colt would be a major factor in this year triple crown races. The Wood remind me of TOE 7 furlong effort which I thought was the best two-year old race last year also closing along the rail impressively.

Even though my current selection is PYRO and COLONEL JOHN which should close from the third bracket at Churchill Downs, I believe Wood produce the top two horses to challenge PYRO and CJ as they turn for home as the early leaders in the long Churchill Downs stretch run.

PYRO wins impressively this weekend and becomes the solid favorite for the 2008 Kentucky Derby sporting a three race winning streak.

and of course your next blog is to write the Louisiana Derby field produced the Ark, Wood and the Bluegrass stakes winner.

Finally, lets look at the Ark. Blackberry Road specifically, this horse simply need to put it all together and deep close from the rear reunited with Calvin Borrel.

Here is a sure bet, Blackberry road rides the rail from 15 lengths out and put in a classic run reminiscing of Street Sense, and lighting strikes again for CB to participate in the Kentucky Derby.

The rematch between Blackberry Road and Z Fortune as in the Lecomte Stakes, except the order of places reverse.

Both make the Kentucky Derby field obtaining the much needed grade stakes earnings.

barryrmitchell

04/10/2008 5:57 pm

Mike stop thinking! You are having visions and better known as a distant cousin to nightmares. Please wake up!

NO CHANCE for Visionaire. Now the Cowboy has a real shot, but can't withstand the PYRO closing kick. Great odds to have a COWBOY on your side rooming the bluegrass hills.

mike barker

04/10/2008 6:19 pm

You arent seriously still thinking War Pass can hit the ticket are you LOL...If you are ill have to give you my cell and book it myself....Barry this horse is under the Radar right now his race in the Risen Star was his first around 2 turns and they messed up and sent him to the lead and he still was only beat by 2...His last win in the Gotham was literaly in the Fog and no one seen it so i think thats why hes under the radar but after Saturday they will be talkin Matz heading back to Louisville for the 2nd time.....AHHH the memories from BARBARO

patbateman

04/10/2008 6:39 pm

Z Fortune again stuck with a bad post, hopefully the field stretches out some and it isn't too congested. He can sit in the 3rd flight and run coming out of the turn, hopefully he gets a nice stretch run in and finishes top 3...I like him to get the jump on Blackberry Road again and I believe the extra distance will help him a lot. I was really hoping for a better post, though. Mike we'll see what Z Fortune and Visionaire can do from the 12 posts this week, maybe Big Brown made it a lucky number...

Cdpotato4

04/10/2008 7:25 pm

Gayego!

DerbyFan78

04/10/2008 8:39 pm

Mike - I am with you on Visionaire and Matz will have him cranked. Additionally, I like Big Truck and am interested in Cool Coal Man. Interestingly enough, Zito has entered Stevil who will serve as a rabbit for CCM and ensure a lively pace for at least 3/4. Something tells me Pyro won't be fully cranked or not like poly (his workouts at Keeneland haven't been as impressive as dirt to boot). That said I think he could still get third off class alone and will play him on some of my tickets. Although, I cannot and will not take him to win at 2/5 on Saturday. However, I will be in attendance and look forward to the race.

DerbyFan78

04/10/2008 8:45 pm

Okay. Rethinking my Stevil comment, as someone else brought it to my attention. Perhaps, he will not be the rabbit and the race will be run in a pedestrian 1:55. Hopefully, it's not and things go better than last weekend.

DerbyFan78

04/10/2008 8:47 pm

Has anyone else noticed Ready's Echo is in Race 7, Saturday at Keeneland?

sripa1212

04/10/2008 8:54 pm

Pyro is not in the race to win it. If he happens to do it that is gravy. His worktab and conversations muttered in the stable area have indicated that Pyro is using this race to stay fit and that his work pattern has been smoothed out to let him relax and allow him to be cranked up again in the weeks prior to the Derby. Asmussen has never won a derby and he is no fool to have Pyro peak on 4/12 but rather 5/3...

FYI to all..

DerbyFan78

04/10/2008 9:06 pm

Sripa - I completely agree with you on Pyro. Where is Tomcito stabled at Keeneland? I plan on passing by his barn on Saturday to have a look at him.

justindew

04/10/2008 11:30 pm

full of fire,

I think we will see a full field.

mike barker,

I like Visionaire's chances. I have been high on him since his FG race.

rumped6

04/11/2008 12:34 am

I see Shapiro has a horse, a la Toddie of TVG, "continuing on?"
Yikes...

Enjoyed this blog last year.
What happened?
Desultory crop of threes, desultory crop of blogs....

And if Shapiro wins the majority of your horse arguments, can I
Dutch-uncle you to another line of work?
Why, he's every bit as good as Watchmaker and Illman!!

PS: Todd Who? (Actually, best chance of his season is this week.
Not great, I think, but, finally, a chance...)

PPS: Don't bet much this time of year. Old brain kept sayin' Saturday,
"There's somethin' you're forgettin'."
Had War Emblem in both derbies that year, 8-1(?) healthy win in Illinois,
modest saver in Derby, where I did not think he'd be allowed to roam.
Disliking much of field as I read about this year's race at Stickney, I thought
I'd take a long look at Roussel's horse, and the other local (Instill?), and make a War Emblem Memorial Wager if either showed any chance to surprise.
So focussed on Wood and SA, didn't even remember race was run 'til I saw
the box of stakes replays at Bloodhorse late that night. 15-1, down the
senility tubes!!! Recapture the Glory, f'sure!
(As I recall, I bet War Pass at Kentuck 'cause all his pace sectors were
high-calibre - his race at Hawthorne was fast/fast/fast.
Not so Recapture. I'll look, but I don't think there's as much there, though he's
certainly improvin' at the right time. Can he rate? (I haven't even looked at PPs
yet).

No need to post this. Too much uninspired crankery already:-)

derbyme

04/11/2008 12:43 am

The last 4 Arkansas Derby winners: Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones had all posted Beyer speed figures of 100+ prior to their successful runs. There is one horse in the field who has posted a triple digit Beyer speed figure. Gayego did it (102) at 6.5f from off the pace on a disgustingly quick and speed favoring SA surface. He then stretched out and pressed the pace at 8.5f and just got beat over a SA surface greatly favoring closers. Tactical type should find a nice spot and may just take right to the dirt. Anyway, he seems to be the only one fast enough to win, no Georgie Boys in here. The next highest figure is a 96 by Golden Yank in the maligned Delta Jack Pot. Z Fortune is fast enough to get a piece, but looks like a sprinter miler. Liberty Bull, Kings Silver Son, and My Pal Charlie seem most likely to take a step forward.

1. Gayego
2. Liberty Bull
3. Kings Silver Son
4. My Pal Charlie

mike barker

04/11/2008 9:39 am

In my national pic 4 i think i may have to hit the all button in the Arkansas Derby i cannot find a stand out anywhere i think is gonna be bombs away...

mike barker

04/11/2008 9:43 am

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44546

Cdpotato4

04/11/2008 12:02 pm

jwbryxjtvw'eriqubrgwvkywfe'aaar'jwa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

patbateman

04/11/2008 6:21 pm

the spam censor prevented my knowledge of Kip Deville's superiority from reaching the masses. Kip Deville is impossible to beat at a mile when he's at his best. You've got to like Pyro tomorrow. This could be his Grade I, and Pyro, unlike Street Sense last year, is not coming out of an absolutely grueling stretch duel. Pyro to the bank it doesn't require a lot of handicapping to figure out that he is the best horse and he can win without giving 100% as he hasn't given 100% in any race of 2008 yet, but still he's had no problem winning as clear favorite both times. Maybe I'll take Medjool for a little, but Pyro is free money.

As for Arkansas, I'm going to back Z Fortune one more time, with a little fear. I like his positives a lot and I think the field he faces is weak. This time he's not giving several pounds to Pyro or Sierra Sunset. This time the pace will be decent. He's already had his bad race, I'll give him one more chance and hope for the best.

Geronimo2123

04/12/2008 5:24 am

Slot33,

That same race that El Gato Malo ran in the San Rafael in 1:33 and change for 1 mile, yet Beyer gave him a 99 BSF for the fastest time run at SA for 1 mile in over 40 years,
Dr. Romans gave EGM a -88 PF for. That was the lowest (best) PF in the past 3 years until BB got a -89 for the Fl Derby. So I would agree about the possible west coast synthetic bias (or at least lack of a clue).

I agree also about Col John's nice late turn of foot, yet that alone cannot influence the Beyer which is based on final time alone. The time in the SA Derby was avg., the Wood was avg. also, and the track was actually slower.

Still, I am not using synthetic Beyers or Bris speed figs, instead I will wait and see how the horses work on the Derby dirt track at CD. Interested in Gayego in the Ark Derby as well, to see how that one transfers his form.

barryrmitchell

04/12/2008 10:05 pm

Well, this is a handicapper Derby betting race. No way will the favorite ping in below 3-1.

I have to change my betting style. I am going to wait right before the horses are loaded and close my eyes tightly, point my index finger, somewhere on the page.

Wherever it lands, thats my play. Anyone can win the 2008 Kentucky Derby, I do mean anyone. Post position draw is very critical. Track variance is huge. Weather will become a factor. Jockey on the liquor is a plus, and trainers, what should I say about the trainers. NOTHING! skip right to the owners, who has a big mouth and campaigning their investment.

What if I said, Colonel John is most likely in up the people choice? He got a real shot at becoming the Derby favorite. Why Gayego wins, Sierra wins definitely indicate the cast from out are real runners. The head of the class is Colonel John.

We may find ourselves celebrating a West Coast Kentucky Derby winner.

patbateman

04/12/2008 10:20 pm

man was I wrong about Pyro. Who knows what to do with that? I'd still rather have Pyro than War Pass in 3 weeks...I had Z Fortune covered across the board but was really hoping for a win. He definitely rebounded well though and it looks like distance won't be a problem for him. One more move forward and Z Fortune can be right in the mix for the whole thing. Now its the wait. It should be a great race.

vjg515

04/16/2008 4:43 pm

forget big brown, watch BIG GLEN in the coolmoore lexington on sat..