On the surface, I'm still confused

If nothing else this mess of a derby prep season should make a few rich people on the first Saturday in May....unless BB does take the cheese at 2/1. I hope not.

Polytrack, they might was well run the final prep race on grass.

Cushion Track, it is much better for a dirt transition. I will toss the field from all the polytrack races and go with Big Brown, Z Fortune and some combination of dirt/cushion track horses and see where it gets me.

Kudos Justin, well written. I don't care what anyone says about Pyro just not taking to the surface - bottom line he didn't get what he needed from the race and will be a short horse in the Derby. It will be the same scenario as War Pass not taking to the Tampa surface, then rebounding with a second place finish in the Wood. Had the outcome of the Tampa race been different, i.e. ITM finish, he would have come into the Wood under better conditioning and finished stronger (I am not saying he will get 10 furlongs, but he will be coming into the race under better conditioning than Pyro). Of course, I am playing the "what if" game, but the principle remains the same, regardless of race and horse - short on conditioning equals short on race day. Take it to the bank!

By the way, Z Fortune running second to several suspect horses doesn't tell me a thing about running against the best of his generation and I will definitely be leaning elsewhere as he hasn't shown up against better competition this year. To date, he has beaten Blackberry Road twice, nothing to brag about. Perhaps, he should stay on the path of minor stakes horses and run elsewhere? He fits the Derby Trial perfectly.

Derbyfan, do you have a horse that Z Fortune is excluding from the Derby with his earnings? Do you like El Gato Malo or Denis of Cork? Tomcito? If War Pass was short for his last race then so was Z Fortune yesterday, because he didn't get much out of his dismal Rebel Stakes run. He is a better Kentucky Derby prospect than anyone from the Wood Memorial, anyone other than Big Brown from the Florida Derby, anyone other than Colonel John in the Santa Anita, anyone at all coming from polytrack, and will be in the superfecta at least. War Pass needs to shoot for the Met Mile. Pyro may be short, wind up 3rd or so, like Pulpit. Speaking of Pulpit, I remember Silver Charm running a race very similar to Z Fortune in his final prep...

Justin-

Even though you may be confused, I think you just clarified the Derby for me. I've been kind of torn between War Pass and Bob's Blackjack with Colonel John another possibility, but the way that Cal horses have improved on dirt, I think that BBJ is the way to go (unless it's a rainy day, which I'm definitly hoping against because I've got bleacher seats!)

Read that Eight Belles is leaning towards the Derby and would be going in with the 2nd best "sheet number" (although it didn't say what sheet). Combine that with Monba, Cowboy Cal (who I doubt will take to the dirt) Recapture the Glory (War Emblem Jr.?) Z Humour (who I think will run well and suprise a lot of people) and even possibly Hey Byrn if he somehow gets in, and that 14/1 all others ticket I bought in pool 3 is looking pretty good (if for nothing other than having lots of shots at winning. (Of course, I'll still take Smooth Air, that would make for a successful weekend)

pat,
Didn't Santa Anita take out their cushion track and put in some other sort of synth surface similar to poly? Not that it really matters, as anyone who has capped out there has noticed that speed is a detriment and that turf-breeding often helps.

justin,
I was more impressed with Bob Black Jack than Colonel John. He held on gamely after setting the pace at 8.5f, stretched to nine, rated, and looked even better barely caught at the wire by a horse who loves the track and closed from way back. His tactical speed should move him up on the dirt, and he'll be fitter than Colonel John who has ran a combined 3f in his last two races.

And don't forget the Fog Factor, we didn't even see most of Visionaire's run in the Gotham.

derbyfan,
I agree about Pyro lacking foundation. Also his fastest race was over slop. I don't think Z Humor wants any part of 10f. Pyro sure reminds me of Circular Quay.

eaoa,
I think Pyro's crushing defeat will have a lot of on-the-fence-runners lining up to take him on. Adriano's already going, Eight Belles, Massive Drama? Wouldn't be surprised if Salute the Sarge and Turf War reversed positions and decided to go.

Justin- Don't you see this year looking a lot like last year? ex: super horse with limited starts( Curlin/Big Brown ).Speed horse- can he go the distance(Hard Spun/War Pass).Big closer(Street Sense/Pyro).But there is one major difference: STEVE A. Last year,SA learned a lot. First, if you have a super horse(CURLIN)you need more than a few starts to win the Kentucky Derby. Second, to win a Triple Crown and beat a super horse, you can't go into the Derby with your horse already half used up. SA knows he has a spectacular horse that is capable of winning a Triple Crown and is preparing him for just that. Pyro, on Saturday, was strictly out for a workout. As is evident by the fact that SA was in Arkansas instead of Keenland. How else can you explain one of the world's top trainers not being at the side of his super horse on the last race before the Kentucky Derby? When Pyro was preparing for his first race this year, he trained with Curlin; look for that to happen again before the derby. Look for a fresh Pyro to win the Triple Crown. There's no need to overthink it, SA is giving you the lead. Pyro has the speed, the foundation, and the ability to relax and rate as necessary.

It would help to know why they chose to put Pyro in the Bluegrass rather than the Arkansas Derby. Why choose synth over dirt for Pyro his last race coming up to Derby. It makes no sense to me. The trainer admitted the horse does not like the surface, so why he put him in and risk injury is beyond me.

Excuse, he didn't like the track. That way he gets the work out with out having to answer to why he ran the way he did. Also if he ran at Arkansas and ran well he would have prevented his stablemate from the earnings he needed to make sure he ran for the roses.

Also, unless The Horse Whisperer shows up between now and the Derby to remedy how to slow War Pass down, I think we can agree the race will go with very solid fractions. I will be counting on that pace for my picks.

Remember more than half of the horses that will run in the k.d. have shown fast fractions have torn there hearts out in previous races. So you can bet that horses that can stay near a fast pace and not crumble will be there for second.

Fabs I hear you, but Z Fortune ran 2nd. If he can run 2nd to Gayego, he can run 2nd to Pyro. But you know, there is only one DERBY. You either have the horse that can win it or you don't. Trainer would have been better off just training hard at Churchill up to the Derby for what he got out of the Bluegrass.

I disagree, you never get ten horses throwing stuff in your face while training. NoLogic SA has pyro right where he wants him. Look at his last workout times, the worst he's had. His beyers last year were higher than this year. Yet look at the difference in the ease that he gets into position this year. He has yet to show any effort this year,yet has two incredible races.This is a very special horse that will shine at the k.d.

You misinterpret my comments to mean that I don't like Pyro for the Derby. I wouldn't spend so much time talking about him if that were the case. Up until the Bluegrass he was picked on top by virtually every analyst here at KentuckyDerby.com, and it's because of his excellent record that he attained that position, not to mention his earnings. That's why I am put off by whatever they were trying to do with him in the Bluegrass. It wasn't the spot for him and that was proven by the time the race was over.

Pat - Z Fortune puts in one decent effort against a sad AK Derby field and you are ready to crown him? Now if he would have won the race going away, I might have a different opinion. No way, not a chance on May 3rd. Yes, I like Tomcito, but am not sure if he gets in or that he has a chance to win. If he does run in the Derby I think he will be in the top 5 finishers. The only horse I like from the BG (based on effort) is Visionaire. His effort was and is overlooked. Unlike the other highly touted horses (mainly Pyro), he made a great run down the lane and will definitely appreciate longer distances. I find it strange you compare Z Fortune to Silver Charm, this conversation is not and will never be valid. After the Derby, Z Fortune's name will be among the other 19 also rans and will be forgotten, much like Zanjero last year.

Fabs - Keep telling yourself SA has Pyro right where he wants him. He is and will be short going into the KD. Remember it's only a workout if a horse gets something out of it and he got ZERO from Saturday's race. Doubtful he is anywhere close to the win on May 3rd and am not entirely sure he is on the board. Before Saturday, I thought he was the horse to beat - now, I am not so sure. Again, I wasn't on his bandwagon and refuse to join (not a fan of the cheater - SA). I was just impressed with the visual aspects of his races this year. So, now it's back to the question - who is number 1?

While I think Colonel John's wins have been impressive, they haven't wowed me. He reminds me of Tiago - a one run, grinder, that takes several strides to get moving. Sorry, that just doesn't impress me. Have to agree with Derbyme, Bob Black Jack was more impressive.

Justin,

I'm being told I'm a "spammer." Have no idea what they're talkin' about, and can't find a way to "site admin."

Anyway, Pat Bateman guaranteed a Pyro win - I would think a good dose of
self-delivered humility would be in order, not more lessons for the rest
of us.

Confusion reigns. Not nearly enough data on Cal horses, or enough tries
against similar fields to count on them handling anything. CJ, f'r'instance, has a sire who did well at CD a few years ago, in the Fall, at CD. No guarantees he
will like the spring track as much - remember, his father trained on dirt, and the almost entirely synthetic experience MAY turn out to be a conditioning plus for some/many West Coasters, but not all - and it has to affect, at least in some way, the stride, perhaps negatively.
Pyro looks to max efficiency at FG, though his races were slow and against doubtful company. Will he be nearly as efficient at CD? (By the way, his trainers raved about his works at Keeneland right after each - make of that what y'will.)

I think Fabs makes some interesting points. Not sure how many I buy, but worth a ponderin'.

Be well, racers. Good luck....

Bob Black Jack, if he runs, will not hit the trifecta and probably the superfecta in the derby. He is a great horse, who gives a lot of effort, like Salute the Sarge on synthetics, but if you need a horse to fill in the blanks demand 20-1 or higher. Colonel John is a much better horse than Tiago. What did Giacomo do after the derby? Yes, Tiago has been a little better but not much. Sometimes the sun just shines right on one horse for Derby day. Had Tiago not won the derby, Giacomo would be more of a Benny the Bull level of horse for Handicap races.

Make that Giacomo in the derby and Tiago a good handicap race horse. Sorry. :) Had Tiago won the derby, I'd have someone typing this for me. :)

Speed Question?

Can someone tell me why this years crop is running half miles in 49 seconds uncontested in all major Derby preps and 1:12 for the 6 furlongs. Excluding Florida fast track conditions and War Pass speed ball partner. It like this group of three years olds are walking around the track.

I'm thinking, the K-Derby this year will be a extremely slow time (2:03 or 2:04)?

Actually, the 1 1/4 distance is the deciding factor for my selection.

Who looks like they can handle the distance. Colonel John looks like he has an extra 1/4 mile in him.

Until Pyro lack luster run, I really thought he was a solid horse to play. The jockey crack him several times with the whip with no obstacles in the way, actually lost more ground. Pyro look as equally bad as War Pass. I willing to dismiss the effort. But to lose right before the K-Derby is not a good sign! at least War Pass rebounded like a horse on the uprise.

The most consistent horse is Colonel John, if the horse would have won the Cash Call (and should have?)closing along the rail, with several stride pass the wire was in fact the leader. He would be undefeated around two turns with two Grade two wins in his belt.

Go U.S.C.! Go Dodgers! Go Lakers! Go U.C.L.A. Go Colonel John!

It in my blood. I am staying consistent

sorry to dissapoint rumped86, I missed Pyro after telling you I couldn't handicap polytrack, I was just excited that I hit the front end of the makers mark blue grass double with Pyro set to bring it home for me with great odds. I only had Pyro and Medjool covered but luckily since I did hit the front end I didn't have to bet him at even money. No more lessons you know where I stand it won't change now barring injury. Big Brown and Z Fortune all the way. Good luck to everyone, you will need it this year.

Barry: "Can someone tell me why this years crop is running half miles in 49 seconds uncontested in all major Derby preps and 1:12 for the 6 furlongs"

Not sure what charts you are looking at but the major races have been legitimate:

Fountain - 23-46-1:10 - Cool Coal Man
Louisiana - 24-48-1:13 - Pyro
Florida - 22-45-1:10 - Big Brown
Santa Anita- 23-47-1:11 - Colonel John
Wood - 22-46-1:11 - Tale of Ekati
Arkansas - 22-46-1:11 - Gayego

exceptions:

Holy Bull - 25-50-1:14 - Hey Byrn
(but going 1 3/16), and to my knowledge War Pass was not in that race!

Toyota - 24-49-1:13 - Monba

The best thing to happen this weekend was with Pyro. Now I will get better odds on him come May 3rd. No doubt he was spinning his wheels on the poly. He may have even bounced slightly. Now I don't have to worry about the bounce theory and get better odds!

There are people that still like Visionaire and Z Fortune. Lets not forget that Pyro raised his leg on these two when he flew by them at the Fairgrounds - on real dirt.

Pyro did get some conditioning from the Bluegrass race. Some experts say that spinning your wheels actually makes you work harder during the race, therefore, providing the needed conditioning. I hope Asmussen brings Curlin with Pyro and lets these two work together again. This will add more conditioning. We all know how Pyro ran after working with Curlin back before the Risen Star.

Pyro has been my Derby horse since last BC Day. He just stands out as a horse who wants distance and has the running style. There will be a fast pace on Derby Day and Pyro will be rolling late.

Last comment - War Pass won the BC Juv in the mud - but Pyro was also the only horse that was rolling at the end. He likes the mud too.

-- JJJimmyJam

Im glad to see some of you jumping off the Pyro wagon, that just makes his odds in the derby that much better...Of course he didnt take to the poly as neither did CCM, Visionaire or Big Truck,,,As i said last week you cannot count that race for anything certain horses just dont like it...Remember when Dominican won last year yea well guess what he finished 17th in the Derby...Dont put to much into the race when handicapping trust me the dirt at Churchill will be so much different and with War Pass in the race i can guarantee you some solid fractions...None of this 49 and change stuff....Remember Pyro broke his maiden at Churchill in his first start...If you bail now you would have to be just dumb...Look at his resume hes never been off the board except one race on a polytrack....Now that Curlin has won the Dubai Asmuseen will have 100% hands on with Pyro...

It's great to see there are some Pyro lovers still out there.I'LL be in vegas for the derby does anyone know if there is a place to bet on a triple crown winner before the derby?

I'm sticking with PYRO......all of you clowns can keep Calfornia Dreamin....Mike B and I will be cashing on May 3. I think it is huge that SA didn't show up and SB put him in a interesting spot....sort of a get the distance without a getting hurt day. So PYRO it is, until the post position draw...then we'll see.
After 45 to the half, you'll be wishing you had joined us!

Wow. This blog is smokin'. Now that the major preps are done the opinions are flying. Its great.

I'm with Barry on Colonel John. I will wait to see what the reports are when he's actually training at CD but like him and Z Fortune right now. Not sure about who else cause I'm still pondering on Pyro.

Disagree with those that say Colonel John is a grinder. Do grinders consistently toss 105+ Bris Late Pace ratings? Check his PP's, he's consistently closed strong and he does have decent speed. I guess the issue is synthetic to dirt. I happen to think CJ will like the dirt out of Tiznow/Turkoman dam sire and the extra distance. Will he have the same kick? We'll see... I say yes.

I also like Z Fortune. He strikes me as the stalker type which should bode well in this Derby. They should run fast up front with WP, BB, Gayego, RecaptureTG, Cowboy Cal, and possibly BBJ. Think it will set up for a stalker/closer. Z Fortune has had one bad race. The Rebel... and it wasn't as bad a clunker as some other big names have tossed. You know he likes dirt, has solid foundation, followed a decent Derby path and run some good figures. Especially the Arkansas where he Beyered over 100 at 1 1/8. Don't think that the competition he has faced is a big issue. The one thing with Z Fortune that bothers me some is his breeding. On the surface it looks good with him being by Siphon who won at 1 1/4. But Siphon offspring to this point haven't won going long. His bottom side looks a little suspect but he does have Lucky Debonair in there who was a Derby winner. In any event, I'm not letting the breeding get me off this guy. We know sprinter/miler types have thrown Derby winners recently so why not Siphon who could run farther and very fast. I like the fact that Z Fortune can close well. Right now, I think he'll finish ITM, the top 3.

So I'm still digging deeper but that's what I've got right now. Can't believe that Pyro BG run. Looked like a workout. Do think he'll run much better at CD but not sure I can explain it a a pure toss out.

This article and responses represent a good Derby blog and I'm eager to read more.

I was at Oaklawn on Saturday, and I'll admit, I didn't like Gayego then. But I do now, and I'll say this. If Gayego can transition from SA to Oaklawn, watch out for him, but watch out for Colonel John more. The entire east coast contenders have shown me no consistency. I was a fan of War Pass and Court Vision during their 2 year old campaign, but certainly not their 3 year old campaign. Tale of Ekati still doesn't impress me running 1:52 and change. Pyro took a huge step back, and I think Brigmohan will be his doom in the Derby. Big Brown looks tough, but unexperienced. I think this is the year the west coast horses show they belong and the polytrack won't be an issue. I think there will be a fast pace in the Derby indeed with War Pass and Big Brown, so it will set up for the closers, that actually can close. And only one comes to mind. I'll take Gayego and Big Brown to hang on to stay in the money.

1) Colonel John
2) Gayego
3) Big Brown

MarkHoeft, slot33, barryrmitchell: glad to see someone else is taking advantage of the free video race replays on this site. COLONEL JOHN wins for fun like Street Sense last year, and probably like last year (hard spun), one of the speedy types hangs on for second. I am a beyer speed figure guy myself, but with all the new surfaces, racing is changing and I'm not putting any stock into those California figures. If you watch all the preps (last years and this years), and even consider final times, final 1/8ths, whatever, Colonel John is a standout. I bet his daddy in BOTH 1 1/4 m Classics, so to think he won't handle dirt is just making excuses. All the horses from out west are coming out east and proving to be the best, and figures are coming up a bit different. You NOW probably won't get the price you'd like, but I'd rather bet and cash then to throw money away. Good Luck to all.

I for one have always had a hard time believing in the "draw a line through that race" theory. However, with the new tracks (poly and cushion, etc...) I have a tendency to believe in this theory now. Even trainers think that turf horses like poly/cushion tracks or vice versa.

I cannot believe that Pyro is that bad of a horse! I did not like his works coming into the race on poly and that led to a bad effort too. This race is a toss. No doubt. He was never in the race.

The Derby will have a fast pace and it does set up for a closer. If you look back at Pyro's PP's - you will notice that he was a consistent as they come. He always had a closing kick - until he raced on this fake surface. He will once again show that kick at CD - where he has already won a race over the surface. It wouldn't surprise me to see Col. John win as I like him too. But trust me, Pyro did not turn into a bad horse over night.

Regarding jimmyjams comment, unfortunately,Pyro may not be the horse we all believed him to be. But, I am sticking with him for one important reason. I saw the video of the BG race. None of the horses looked tired. With Big Brown and War Pass leading the Derby and the race being 1 1/4 miles, there are going to be plenty of tired horses at 134. Pyro has never shown tiredness,ever. He and Colonel John will feast at 134.

Hey,whats the first thing a trainer does when his horse runs very poorly? He has the horse looked at by a vet.What happens when the horse is a world class three year old? Ask War Pass. Anyone hear anything regarding PYRO? Maybe he ran exactly the way they wanted him to.

A bunch need the front end: Bob Black Jack, Salute the Sarge, Recapturetheglory, War Pass, Cool Coal Man, and a bunch come from way back: Monba, Pyro, Court Vision, Tomcito.

I can't predict they'll all burn out or how far they carry the speed, but I can predict that they'll be on the muscle early, and since they've each proven they can run a 22 45, it will be scary fast. Bob Blackjack ran a 20, 44, 1.06 6f, and Big Brown has run a 1.35 mile both times for hobby. This may be the fastest 3/4 of a Derby ever run. I wouldn't expect another Hard Spun to carry it out. This is going to be a weird race and the best horse might not win. I wouldn't be surprised to see a midpack runner get interested and be in position outlast the furious five. Unfortunately, it will be Big Brown unless they hook him early.

McMitch,

Salute the Sarge runs from off the pace.

And no way they go faster than Songandaprayer in 2001 or even Spanish Chestnut in 2005. Many of them may want the front, but they won't take it if it means flying the half in :45 because many of them are solid contenders. In 2001, John Dowd sent out just that, a 35-1 Songandaprayer; and in 2005 we all know Spanish Chestnut was Derek Smith's rabit for Bandini who hillariously finished behind the cotton tail.

Songandaprayer wow i remember that i was like are you kidding me i think he thought the race was 5 furlongs bwahahaha

How about the ride on READYS ECHO i cant believe he got beat at the wire, im betting the farm on him next out..That horse could run 2 miles they should send him to the Belmont...

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44598

The Colonel http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuuJibTFXI

JD is still probably sitting on a camo, trying to figure out how to wipe away the confusion! lol. This guy disappears, and the only room I can think of is the cameo room. STOP WRITING ON THE WALLS

Who said the racing splits were legit. Mr. No Logic! come on! the time in Florida were fast and a questionable clock. War Pass has a pacesetter earning his pay,

No one like Santa Anita or the bluegrass surfaces.

This will be the slowest Derby running in many years, 2:03 or 2:04. I can smell it.

any slower and \"Tomcito who!" may still earn another paycheck finishing 13 lengths out.

Mr. Derby, I know I have completely serve my prison time from last week bet. But the hammer has now commence to drop!

I fill a sweat coming on! DERBY FEVER is contagious

Go Colonel John

Mike, you can only have one pick to stand in the winner circle.

You can have PYRO and any tickets off the ground as memorabilia.

Barry,

I like Colonel John and would be thrilled to see him win the Kentucky Derby. The rest of my top five include: Tomcito, Z Fortune, Monba and Big Brown.

Colonel John is a descendent of the Great Man o' War who is descended from the Godolphin Arabian bloodline. As such, Colonel John will have a lot of history to overcome to wear the Roses in May. The last Godolphin Arabian line thoroughbred to win the Kentucky Derby was Man o' War's son and Triple Crown winner, War Admiral who won the 1937 Kentucky Derby.

It would be exciting to see Colonel John and only time will tell.

You know that I'm into pedigrees and my top five represent the horses I believe have the best pedigree for the Kentucky Derby distance.

Tomcito is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector sire line which has produced 8 of the past 13 (62%) Kentucky Derby winners. Other horses from the line include Court Vision, Z Humor, Anak Nakal and maybe Eight Belles. You can bet that I'll give all of them a close look on Derby Day. Eight Belles dam sire, Dixieland Band, was also the dam sire of Kentucky Derby winners Street Sense (2007) and Monarchos (2001).

Monba also has an excellent pedigree sired by Maria's Mon who produced Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos (2001) and he has Easy Goer and Alydar on the bottom. Alydar sired the Kentucky Derby winners Strike The Gold (1991) and Alysheba (1987).

We look at everything to decide who will win.But do we really need to. We have seen in the past that the winner will win with a beyer over 100. Now we also have seen that the derby winner has run a beyer of over 100 before the derby. So why even think of betting on a horse who hasn't done at least that? If you go back and watch the last ten or so k.d. you'll see the winner always makes a big move between the 3/4 pole and the 1 mile pole. This happened weather he was on the lead (WAR Emblem)or a mile behind (Street Sense).So betting on a horse that can't do that is crazy.The last thing to look at is post position, how many win from outside the ten hole. With this in mind, really how many are in this race that can win (post position not known). Is this race really as hard to figure as were making it?

Mcmitch: Agree that the race setup could lead to a midpack winner in this year's derby.

Fabs: Agree with your speed/pace comments.

My review of the past 15 or so derby winners has led to some interesting conclusions. The derby winner typically runs a 105+ beyer & has typically run within 5 points of the winning beyer before the derby. The derby winner is usually leading or very close to the lead when they enter the stretch (often b/c of the ability to make a big run). The winner usually has run within 3-4 lengths of the lead in their derby preps. Surprising, but true. This does not mean that the winner has to stay close in the derby, it just means that the horses that have closed from the clouds in prep races rarely win the derby. Exceptions are grindstone, monarchos, & street sense. I think the reason for this is the difficulty of weaving through traffic. Even Street Sense, as good as he was that day, might have finished second if he had to check or travel 4-5 wide on the final turn. Ignoring synthetics, these factors lead me to Big Brown, Gayego, Eight Belles (& maybe Pyro/Z Fortune). But if we try to speculate which horses might have qualified but for synthetic tracks, the list could grow. The horse that might best meet the above is Eight Belles. In her big allowance win she took dirt in her fact & moved through a tight spot between horses. And in her last 4 races, she has shown an explosive turn of foot not found in most of this year's colts. Both of these traits would serve her well for that crucial move coming out of the turn at Churchill.

Jeff,

Like the analysis, Big Brown, Gayego, and Z Fortune should all be right in the middle of the first pack and be in position 3f out. I'd throw Bob Black Jack in that stalking group as well. At the same time, a fit War Pass seperates at that point. Visionaire and Cool Coal Man won with that move, so did Big Truck. Problem is, that sort of run wins lots of races, and a lot of these horses are capable of that sort of move. Though not all can go on. See my other posts for 100+ Beyer angle analysis.

I see the pace developing as follows:

1. Recapturetheglory, he wants it that bad, he can have it
2. Cowboy Cal, as a rabbit for midpack Monba
3. War Pass, still not convinced he's unratable (more went wrong in Tampa then not getting the lead)
4. Bob Black Jack in the pocket, with 5. Big Brown, and 6. Gayego right there. There's a good chance the trifecta comes from these 6.

DerbyMe,

Agree with your pace analysis as your list of 5 will battle on the front end. Would throw BBJ in there also. However, I don't think any of them will last and hit the board. Just my opinion. I see splits of 46-47, 1.10-1.11, and 1.35-1.36.

Recapturetheglory - Feel he's benefited from Hawthorne with his 2 best Beyers and that Ill. Derby form won't hold. Plus his race quality is supect. A definite need the lead type.

Cowboy Cal - Good turf/synthetic form but even with the BG numbers, seems to have suspect closing form. Look at Bris LP numbers. Also may be suspect on dirt.

War Pass - Don't have much to say. Even with the rebound in Wood. Will run fast early and stride will shorten the further they go.

Big Brown - Will be near the lead and not at all sure about all the rating talk. Lack of foundation and experience will be telling. Didn't come home in FLA. Derby in less than 38 for final 3/8's or less than 25.20 for last quarter. Troubling.

Gayego - Will run with the first pack and may carry until near the 1/8 pole. Ran a strong Arkansas, no argument there, but also couldn't come home the final 3/8's in less than 38 or final quarter in less than 25.20. Light on foundation.

Again. Just my opinion. Right now believe Colonel John or Z Fortune will win. Like Pyro and Smooth Air after that. Amongst other bets, will box those 4.

slot33,

Interesting analysis on the front end. However, you are aware that final 3/8ths and final 1/8ths times are irrelevant for horses that were under a hand ride, under wraps and actually holding the bit halfway out of their mouth the way that Big Brown was...
It has never been a reliable indicator of how a horse that wires the field will come home at 10 panels, especially if that horse is stalking next time out at CD and has more in the tank for the ride home. And in the case of BB, he was eased home.

One reason why the final 3/8th's time is a bad indicator for a horse wiring a field at 9 panels is because ideally the jock is resting the horse between the 6th and 7th furlong, slowing him down so he can ask the horse for his run at the top of the stretch. Big Brown was so far ahead, and yet he still pulled away when asked after setting fractions of 22 and change, 45 and 110 and change. Of course, even though he was under a hand ride, BB DID run the final 1/8th in 12.98 seconds ( 1:35.18 and 148.16 ). That is 13 seconds or less as "required", correct? And the horse did run his final quarter in 25.23 seconds, if you "guestimate" the 7 furlong time. In reality, it could have been closer to 25.1 for all we know. Its a guessing formula based on the presumption that the 7 furlong split is going to be .6666 of whatever the final 3/8th was. In this case it was 38.10 seconds after being well in the front of everyone with absolutely NO chance of being run down.

These formulas do not arise and exist in a vacuum, slot33, you are a very smart guy. Use some common sense, and the same applies here to Gayego. However, based on pedigree and dosage I would have more concern over Gayego than Big Brown-whose dosage index is 1.67 and has a majority of his 36 dosage points in the classical section. BB's cd is also 0.36, which suggests he should be able to run all day. I am not suggesting that BB is a lock to win the Derby. His lack of foundation concerns me as well. However, some of these qualifying rules need to be applied with common sense.

All in all I agree with most of what you say, but the rigid application of come home times to a horse who had already won his prep in a romp by the eighth pole is absurd.

Geronimo,

Agree 100% about come home times. Also, Gulfstream has been a tiring surface all meet. The typical 9f race there has every fraction slower than the first, and the fact that it still favors speed is testimony to the tiring nature of the track and not merely pace scenarios. Wood Memorial was run over a similarly tiring track. Big Brown finished up about as well as anyone I saw all meet. Bottom line, if your horse's chances are hinged to his ability to get the final quarter in under :24 on conventional dirt after running behind swift fractions, you're probably gonna be disappointed.

Word of warning to Bris Late Pace players. The new SA has been favorable to closers. If Colonel John is pumping out 105 LP, he should dominate on a track playing to LP.

I don't remember this much hype for a horse with beyers this low since Tapit. With Tapit, there was talk about running the 2nd race off the layoff & the racing surface in the prep. With Colonel John, it's the artificial track. And that late stretch move that is perfect for winning races at Santa Anita simply isn't the type of move that wins the derby. Admittedly, I have no idea what to do with the artificial surface races. Maybe, we are forced to project if Colonel John would have run 100+ beyers on a dirt track. But even then, I'm not sure he has the style to win. A small piece seems more likely to me.

Thanks for the tip on how Gulfstream was running, derbyme. I had heard that the surface had been tiring, but could not track it back to an actual source.

Given that BB was not really asked to run, and had no reason to run hard for the last part of his prep, simple logic dictates that regardless of how the surface was, his come home time was irrelevant. Since he was never asked to run, perhaps handicappers such as slott33 should just put an N/A next to the time, or a "?", rather than simply tossing the horse because he won too easily.

Speaking of late pace figs from Bris, it is a shame that El Gato Malo may not even make it in the Derby at this point. In his 2 races before the SA Derby, both at SA, EGM had a Bris Late Pace fig of 108 in his San Rafael romp at 1 mile, and an almost unheard of LP of 117 in his 1/2 length 2nd place finish to CJ in the Sham. Even though EGM has the breeding of a miler, he clearly had both blazing tactical speed, and a huge late kick. The problem was he was so fast that EGM tired of Flores' constant cuteness in holding EGM off of whatever pace he was up on. In the SA Derby, EGM broke poorly, got banged around and then was intentionally taken to the very back of the pack by Flores. Why do this to a horse who breezes 1/52 firing a bullet 5 furlong work 4 days before the race. This tactic of holding back made sense in the San Rafael, but not in the Sham, where Flores made sure the colt was penned back on the rail behind Col. John (even though EGM broke ahead of Col. John and could have run up to any spot Flores wanted him to on the track). Then Flores moans both in the Sham and the SA Derby about his horse having too much to do. Well, whose fault is that.

Terrible, terrible jockey for EGM. Way, way too conservative and cute. I sure hope he isn't so cute on Bob Black Jack or that one is in trouble too.

Geronimo,

Fair enough. And yes I did realize that BB was under a hand ride in Fla. and also it appears in his allowance race. But hey, I have other issues with BB that indicate to me that he won't stay. Like a 3-race foundation. Bellamy Road won the Wood like a world beater and came home in something like 24.88 and we saw what happened. He also lacked experience. No, the final come home times aren't the be-all end-all... but used in conjunction with other factors you may get a better read or feel for what you think may occur.

Great you guys keep analyzing the fractions. If all the horse were sprinting, who would be the winner? If they going 1 mile, who would be the winner then?

In all the history of the Kentucky Derby, the winner is crowned by who can run the last 1/8 better and stronger the competition. Horse don't stride out and win, the winner is found by the horse who fall behind and can't keep pace.

So try think about who can't keep pace, and what left to analyze.

The choice is simple for me, In all the prep races, each winner, except one, the second place horse didn't lose ground if they were passed with 1/8 to go.

Big Brown when he took charge with a 1/16 to go, Smooth Air appeared not to be losing ground late. His stride was just as impressive late as the winner Big Brown.

Tale OE and War P were not exactly drawing away from each other in the wood as well.

Pyro Louisiana Derby victory was brilliant, I am willing to forgive the Bluegrass Stakes, But I believe the problem was running along the rail more so then the surface. He appeared to be running erratic in the lane, first baring out to the right and shifting back to the left under the whip! Maybe blinkers for the Derby is needed. Mental issues, I believe. Not a good sign in a full field. Don't be writing me about the closing effort in the LD, it was on the outside he found his best stride, not along the rail.

Adriano, has "lack of competitions" even though, he is the best real sleeper above 20-1. odds. Prado surely think so!

Monba, finally put it all together, the Bluegrass was a legit race, Monba was favorite in the Cash Call, and the FOY. So he finally wins, and people still don't believe the talent is there. Hear me the horse is legit and will finish in the top 5 in May. Cowboy ran his heart out to finish second. Distance of 1 1/8 is simply to far for him.

First time analysis, I will say it for first time, right here and right now, today and give you the answer for the historical lesson, but the future winner.

THE WINNER OF THE 2008 KENTUCKY DERBY AND WHY? Calvin my one and only friend here with the pedigree answers. It been lonely without you. Okay I have several friends here. Nothing personal, Mike, Derby, So Cal. I am sure we can work it out.

Tiznow Breeders Cup victory was won on what track? that right! Churchill Downs 2000.

I hear the racing champs yelling "like father like son"

Colonel John will run his race just like his daddy ran his race to be crowned Horse of the Year!

Its in Colonel John genetics to win. Tiznow was a wonderful colt, and Colonel John has the same air about him as his daddy had. Tiznow was a late developing three year old which beat older horses. Certainly Colonel John appears to be the best to follow in his daddy foot steps.

Here is what Chris McCarron had to say before his Breeder's Cup victory on Tiznow

"I didn't know exactly where I'd be placed prior to the race. Tiznow will run all day."

The most important statement is run all day. That what we want in the Derby winner.

One thing is for sure, if you think Colonel John won't take to the surface, you are greatly mistaken. If you don't think genetics have nothing to do with horse racing. Your in the wrong business. This horse has the weight of history on his side and daddy's genes in him to run all day and win the Kentucky Derby on the same track his daddy was crowned Horse of the Year Churchill Downs.

If Colonel John makes the lead, which I believe will be early in the stretch run, he will not be passed as his daddy was not passed in 2000 the full length of the stretch run.

Colonel John is getting better with each and every race. He will run huge on Derby day. That's a guaranteed and a money play.

9th (5:40)
Coolmore Lexington S. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $325,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Atoned Prado E S 117 LA
2 Salute the Sarge Baze M C 117 L
3 Samba Rooster Gomez G K 117 L
4 St. Joe Mena M 117 LA
5 Racecar Rhapsody Albarado R J 117 LA
6 Felon Leparoux J R 117 LA
7 Behindatthebar Flores D R 117 LA
8 Tomcito Chavez J F 123 L
9 Big Glen Douglas R R 119 LA
10 Riley Tucker Velazquez J R 117 Blk-On LA
11 Red Sandy Theriot H J II 117

Prado to ride Adriano in Derby

Dominguez Lands Mount on Monba

Geronimo,

You say I lack common sense... maybe I do. Yes, I'm a numbers guy but by no means apply only that to analyze the horses. I said that BB's come home times were troubling and you interpret that to mean I'm lacking in horse smarts. Maybe so.

But when I've looked at BB's 3 yr. old races he appeared to be under more of a hand ride in his 1 mile allowance race. In that race, he came home the final quarter in 25.79. Then he went in the Fla. Derby and he was under a bit more urging in the stretch and ran 38.08 and 25.39 coming home. Those numbers are pretty accurate. And you're correct... he came home his final 1/8 in a bit less than 13. I've said before that his Fla. Derby was a huge effort by a beautiful horse... especially considering his 12 post. And I agree his breeding is rock solid when looking at his dosage and CD.

But I feel he BB runs too fast early and will likely repeat it in the Derby. And think he'll be in the first flight no more than a couple off of a fast pace. And in that large field and under a bit more pressure I think he'll have issues finishing. And also think his lack of foundation will play a part.

You disagree with me. That's fine. If Big Brown wins the race I'll salute him while tearing up my losing tickets.

Dominguez has been riding Eight Belles, doesn't look like she'll run in the Derby.

The last 10 years derby winners have come by way of ARK-Derby .The track is comparable to CD. DIRT

Atoned in the Lex is my choice. Hot play.

Slot33,

You misunderstood me if you thought I said you lacked common sense. Far from it. Based on your past posts, which I have enjoyed and they have been very well reasoned, I said you were a smart guy and to use some of your common sense when applying the come-home time rule.

That being said, you raise some issues and concerns about Big Brown that should concern everyone. He probably is the most talented horse in the field, and as I have said he won all of his races so easily he had no reason to run strongly in the stretch. However, you are aware that he ran the last quarter mile in his turf race, where he did pull away from the field at 8.5 panels, in 22 seconds and change, correct? He also has worked 4 furlongs for fun in 44.3 seconds, without blowing at all, several times. Turf and dirt.
Man, that is flat out flying.

However, what concerns me is that he has never been in a dogfight in a race, never been challenged, never been in a stretch duel. He's run some horses off of their feet, but when he comes to the wire he is all alone. Now Colonel John, who should take to the dirt considering his sire and his equally awesome broodmare sire Turkoman (son of Alydar, broodmare sire to both Point Given and Hard Spun). Turkoman was good on dirt and grass, while Tiznow was pretty much all heart and stretch kick like Barry keeps reminding everyone. Too bad El Gato Malo will probably not get in, because his stretch run against Col. John probably put about a ton of fitness and confidence in Col. John.
El Gato Malo was taken wide, and Col. John got the jump in the Sham, but EGM ran home in 11.4 seconds for the final 1/8th, and a 119 Bris late speed fig. Even though EGM closed the distance, he could not get by Col. John. And coming home in 11.4 is moving like a bullet train. That's how Tiznow was, all heart, you could not get by.

The reason why I am saying this is if for some reason those two are near each other in the stretch, I would have to think the experience advantage would have to go to Col. John, who has looked good horses in the eye in the stretch. Its unknown with BB. Kind of like when Bernardini was wore down by Invasor in the stretch. Bernardini had never been challenged, while Invasor was always battling to the wire (remember that stretch duel between Invasor and Sun King that went down to the wire by a nose?)

To me, those things matter more to BB's success than his come home time because I have no doubt if pressed he will go faster than 25.2 and 13, however, will that be enough?
I have no doubt BB is a freak, but we saw last year in the Derby that a freak named Curlin could not catch Hard Spun at 10 panels in the Derby, nor could he maneuver the track and the stretch like Street Sense. But the Derby was a learning experience for Curlin and he did come in a distant 3rd. And we all know what happened in the Preakness. But before the Derby, Curlin had never been challenged, and never had a speed horse stay in front of the pack for the entire race, up to that point they had simply tired and he picked them up. So for me the concern is experience and lack of any meaningful competition in any of his races.

Several of these horses would be great if they were just like their sire...So don't get too carried away about Colonel John beating a bunch of horses that won't be in the Derby picture at all. He is a nice horse but has not shown anything close to Tiznow's ability yet and there is a strong argument to be made that Georgie Boy and Gayego are better 3 year olds from California this year. Additionally, the Curlin didn't do it so Big Brown can't do it argument is flawed because if the 3 year old Curlin we saw last year took Big Brown's place against this field, you would all be all over Curlin even more so than everyone was last year before the derby. This field is weak, relatively speaking, there is no Hard Spun or Street Sense for Big Brown to beat.

Geronimo,

Good post. You make good points... especially about BB. I also agree with you on EGM. Would have liked to see him in the Derby. I thought he had some trouble on the first turn in the SA Derby and also thought his race wasn'that bad a run. He looked to me like he was the type to outrun his pedigree.

Graded Earnings http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/DerbyEarnings.jsp

Arrest Warrant Issued for Valenzuela This guy has all the talent in the world and he just cant stay out of trouble...I hope they finally never ever let him even work a horse out at a track ever again WHAT A LOSER how many chances has he had???????????? http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44654

I must comment that I just don't get why the cappers on this blog don't see what I see.

Most folks are looking for a horse who can with stand an expected early fast pace, take dirt in the face, start a move on the turn, bob & weave when necessary, and leave enough kick for the stretch? You want great breeding for the distance, savy connections, and a sound foundation. Most are focused on the top 7 money earners....or are you.... no mention of Tale of Ekati in all this (#4 on the money list - that includes Proud Spell now...oh Larry, the hats fun but get serious). I dont understand. Dont get me wrong, I dont disagree with all the angles people have posted, I just think you might be drawing a line through a live player. I shouldnt be saying this because I am sooo happy he was ignored in the Wood, a lovely exacta played very strongly. But seriously, what gives?

Why wasn't Proud Spell in the Derby?