Mail Bag

Hey justin interesting Blog especially the Mom letter.
I see you always talk about value come derby day, so i must ask what value will there be in any bet when big brown wins the derby? Maybe some exactas?
The obvious response to taht would be: if curlin didnt win it (And thats a super horse), why should BB? Its true they both lacked experince, but curlin got caught behind a bunch of horses from the start and for his experience it was just to much to over come, but BB has the tactical speed to be placed nicely up front and make his move in the far turn sort of like a barbaro type after war pass is spent, and i doubt kent will let himself get cought up behind early like it happend to him with sweetnothersiant (But u can never predict a bad break).
Any way just some thoughts.

HOw is your derby pick now with all thats happend?

Justin,
Give me your thoughts on Smooth Air. I have been hammering the other blogs about this horse because I think he has a legitimate shot at winning this thing. He has never finished out of the money is 7 starts and he is 1-1-1 w/ $ 320,000 in earnings from 3 starts this year. He ran a nice second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby, in which he was not losing ground and maintained a nice stride to the wire. He has only had two races at two turns, but Cruz seems to have been able to rate him nicely. I also like the last mile workout he had. Shipping the horse to CD two weeks before the Derby can only be an advantage. I really like his chances at a nice price.

I GOT A LIVE LONGSHOT IN AQUEDUCT'S 8TH ON SATURDAY BY THE NAME OF MILLENIUM JET (15-1). HE HAD A BRUTAL TRIP IN HIS LAST AND IS JUMPING UP IN CLASS TO $50K ALW. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT RAJIV JUMPS OFF.

Justin,

I thoroughly enjoy your blog. Since the Kentucky Derby is only a few days away, I'd be interested in hearing about your most memorable Derby experience. I know your bio says that you made some big Derby scores which I'm sure is pretty memorable. Maybe you can expand on those stories?

Here’s my story. It was an experience I’ll never forget.

In May of 2006, a friend of mine from work took me to my first Kentucky Oaks. He knows some people on the backside and he goes there often. It was a beautiful day and it was exciting seeing all the horses, trainers and media personalities up close and live.

I came prepared.

I brought lots of money, my derby hat (a baseball cap with Derby pins all over it that I’ve collected for 19 years) and a magic marker – I was going to get me lots of autographs.

Now keep in mind, back then I’m 53 going on 54, but I was like a kid in a candy store seeing all the sights, sounds and smells of the Churchill Downs backside.

The first trainers autograph I got was Michael Matz who was running a very good turf horse named Barbaro.

When I spotted Matz, he was about a half furlong away and I saw he was in a hurry to get somewhere as he was moving at a very brisk pace across the backside.

I took off in a sprint and I ran him down, though, driving. When the dust cleared I asked Matz for his autograph. He smiled that big ear-to-ear smile you’ve seen on television and said he’d be happy to sign my baseball cap. As he was signing my cap a van full of people pulled up and they all jumped out and wanted an autograph too. I felt kind of bad about delaying Mr. Matz but he stood there smiling, signing autographs and talking with the other people.

Justin, Michael Matz is the real deal. There’s nothing phoney or pretentious about Matz and we need more trainers like him.

The second trainers autograph I got was Daniel Peitz who was running Steppenwolfer. The next signature I got was Todd Pletcher’s who had Bluegrass Cat and Keyed Entry in the Derby. The fourth and last autograph was Steve Asmussen who had Private Vow entered in the Derby.

Kentucky Oaks day was great – I got several autographs and I made some money to boot!

On Derby day I was getting ready to go to my cousin’s. He always has a big Derby party where all the family friends, cousins, aunts, and uncles attend. There’s nothing finer than friends, family, food and fun watching a full of day of Kentucky Derby horse racing the first Saturday in May – and there’s always some betting on the side.

As I’m getting ready to go to the party, the thought suddenly occurred to me that if I did not put a bet down on the signatures on my cap, I’d feel kind of foolish if they came in.

I had placed my Derby bets on Oaks day and I did not have a lot of time to think about how to play the wager because I was in a hurry to get to the party. So I went online and placed a straight $2 superfecta on the order I received the autographs: Barbaro, Steppenwolfer, Bluegrass Cat, Private Vow. I placed another $2 bet using Keyed Entry in place of Bluegrass Cat because Pletcher had two horses entered in the Derby.

My cousin’s party was fantastic as always. I told everyone about my winnings at the Kentucky Oaks and they all oohhed and aahhed at my autographed baseball cap.

I’m sitting there watching the run of the Kentucky Derby on TV. Adrenaline is flowing, everyone is shouting and I’m getting ready to cash in my tickets – I’m going to break the bank!

Barbaro comes across the line first. Then Bluegrass Cat. Then Steppenwolfer.

Suddenly, my anticipation of cashing in on untold riches turns into anxiety and I’m starting to get a sick feeling in my gut because I had not boxed the horses.

“Oh God, please do not let Private Vow or Keyed Entry come in,” I prayed.

I figured if they finished outside of my superfecta bet I would not feel that bad about my hastily placed online wager.

Justin, that's the first time I ever prayed for a horse to not finish in the money and I guess the Lord had pity on me – Private Vow finished in 15th place and Keyed Entry finished in 20th place.

However, I really got sick later when I realized that if I had played a $2 trifecta box on Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer, I would have won $11,418.40.

Yikes!

Justin,

The fans have really hit on a hot topic here. I dont know how we can go on with out discussing it further. Tell us more about Jessica...

Cdpotato,
I will have to remember to keep your hot one at Aqu tomorrow in mind. Race Distance? Trainer? You say he is jumping in class to 50k Allowance . What was has he been running at?

Your Millenium Jet has been running 32-35,000 n2l's. He's got some upside but your man Raj is off to the Wizend Apple, dont think it makes a difference though. Robert Barbara trainer, CC Lopez Jock, 1 1/16 turf. Whats your angle? (and dont say value, cause value is worth zip if you dont cash a ticket), sorry did I say that out loud? I must be on the wrong blog.

Dear Justin,

You are on top of your game! Thanks for all of the insight for this year's Derby. I am taking notes along with the rest of the world!

Caroline

Justin,

Ernietoby and others have hit the nail on the head. We have 2 weeks until the Derby to
break down races and past performances...but the time could never be better to tell us all you know about Jessica Pachecho. Where did someone who looks like that learn so much about the horses, and why don't you find out who she likes for the Derby (since they have not given her her own blog here).

Keep up the good work and do you think that kentuckyderby.com will ever offer you the same face time on video that they have given to Ms. Pacheco? It can't be all about being hot if every time I turn around Asher or Joe K. has his big mug on some preview video.

Not to change the subject to hot racing ,,,, I mean horse racing. I put the following entry on an blog that ran it's course already but I want to get some insight here as to what the talented cappers are thinking on this subject...

I must comment that I just don't get why the cappers on this blog don't see what I see.

Most folks are looking for a horse who can with stand an expected early fast pace, take dirt in the face, start a move on the turn, bob & weave when necessary, and leave enough kick for the stretch? You want great breeding for the distance, savy connections, and a sound foundation. Most are focused on the top 7 money earners....or are you.... no mention of Tale of Ekati in all this (#4 on the money list - that includes Proud Spell now...oh Larry, the hats fun but get serious). I dont understand. Dont get me wrong, I dont disagree with all the angles people have posted, I just think you might be drawing a line through a live player. I shouldnt be saying this because I am sooo happy he was ignored in the Wood, a lovely exacta played very strongly. But seriously, what gives?

ernietoby,

On Tale of Ekati:
The wood was run in 1:52^2, the slowest time since 1952. Nobody from the Wood has a chance and in my opinion none of them belong.

On Millenium Jet:
Like I said he had an absolutley awful trip his last time out. He could have won that going away and he does belong in this 51k ALW. He was 22 back at the first call, then 11 back at the second to lose by only a neck over this same course. He is in my Equibase Virtual Stable so I definitely saw something I liked about his last. Again he did have an extremely bad trip.

Justin: I dont understand your comments..I wont be betting him..you mentioned pyro and big brown "because they dont offer any value". I have to tell you that If you know the winner of the Derby and you know how to Gamble you'll make money. In your profile you mentioned you had Giacomo. I can tell you that if I bet that race and bet it 19 times I still wouldnt have picked him. Your obviously a fan, but why doesnt your handicapping allow to pick the most likely winners. I myself dont bet $1 exacta's any one can pick the longest number on the board and play all's top and bottom. But since the average exacta I believe is in the $300 range I prefer to pick the winner. There is probably only 1 of about 3 horses that have a legit chance.

The King of the Derby

So Cdpotater4,

A faster Wood would have been better? Fast like Bellamy Roads? How did that work out again? Look, people cant even agree what times mean from races on the same track same days let alone different decades, distances, and races. It's more about how they meet, flank to flank, on the same surface, on the same day, out of the same gate.

Maybe what you saw is guts and determination from MJet last out and you dont think it really matters who he is up against cause you know he wont just roll over with out reason. And what I am trying to tell you is that the same thing is there with Ekati (and others). Lets see what tomorrow brings for Mjet and your faith in a fighter stepping up to where some would say he might not belong.

A little piece of advice: the best value is in a winning ticket, and the worst value is in a losing one.

Handicappers get my attention for being good handicappers when they can frequently choose the winner. Not from a list that names 6 of 10 horses in a field, and not when the claim is that they were going for "value."

Pick the winner. Doubling your money in 2 minutes is never a bad investment. It's alright to look for value in real life betting the 4th race at Penn National, but when writing columns handicapping the Derby, we expect to see a winner, regardless of his odds.

One thing has to be remembered in betting horses, who ever cashes the most tickets loses the most money, just like poker. You can't be dancing every dance and betting every favorite. It is a recipe for busting. You must insist on value. If horse A should only win one out of ten and is at 20-1 and horse B should win one out of three and is 2-1, the obvious pick is horse A. He wins far less often but returns value. At the end of the month value ends up ahead.

JD, I am smiling. You keep firing unbelievable angles with your writing talents.

I am sure you a few more to release. How about maybe a comedy approach to handicapping the Derby.

Make us all laugh some more.

BM

Zhorse,

I couldn't disagree more. You must work for a casino or track or somewhere where you get a cut of the take. There have had days I cashed no tickets and they certainly were not as nice as the days I cashed tickets on every race! Lets try to work through your example as over simplified as it is. If after doing your due diligence and handicapping the days card - say your going to an actual track for the day - and the horse you determined will win the first betting race of the day is 2-1 you may need to switch your wagering to exotics in order to extract more 'value'. Notice I said the first betting race of the day, this is where we agree, you might not bet every race of the day, it's ok to sit out a dance. But not betting on the horse you determined will win because of the odds at post time is a recipe for a losing ticket. It sounds like the Yogi Berra theory of wagering - 'nobody bets on the favorite'.

I have finished 4 of the last 5 years well ahead in my playing - the tax man knows this, sadly. My main angle is to pick a track and play it. I prefer the Saratoga meet, the triple crown trail, then Belmont, and finally the Breeders cup. Thats my season. Outside of that I occaisonally chase spot plays in stakes races across the country - like when Kip Deville shipped west last summer. I always handicap the races before I look at the morning line odds. I determine my top three from each race and rank them 123. Then I go back and check the odds and maybe read what the form guys have to say. If the odds show me I've landed on a few 9-5'ers I start looking to work some pick threes or pick fours around them - if I feel real strong about my 2,3 horses maybe I reserve a trifecta wager for when I can give them the look see in the paddock.

Betting the odds is not handicapping a race and wagering. Its rolling dice in a smoke filled casino at 4 am on a Sunday night on the out skirts of Vegas with vomit on your collar.

Everyone,

A number of you have questioned my search for "value". Obviously, I agree that any winning ticket is a good one, and better than a losing one. However, as all of you know, if a horseplayer cannot spot and does not demand value, he will lose in the long run. As for the Derby, it is a unique betting opportunity. There aren't many races during the year where the exacta can pay nearly $10,000 as it did in 2005. To me, the Derby is not about bragging rights. It's about potentially cashing a huge ticket.

jharvat,

I will have an entire article about Smooth Air in the near future. Stay tuned.

Calvin Carter,

Again, stay tuned.

Barry,

Thanks.

Justin-

Everybody seems to rely more on history of the race in the Derby than almost any other race, so here's something very interesting I found: 8 of the last 16 Derby winners were 2nd in their last race before the Derby (Also 5 1sts and 3 4ths) and the 2nd place horses this year offer some possible value:

SMOOTH AIR- would be the "feel good story" and this horse has been consistent as any in the field- already got him at 159/1 but right now win, lose, or draw that's a bet I don't (and won't) regret making

GOLDEN SPIKES-probably won't be in the field

Z FORTUNE- Hung like wallpaper in Arkansas like he didn't want to pass Gayego-throw out for me!

COWBOY CAL-gotta think that he's a turf/poly horse and won't run well on "real dirt" (but do have him covered as part of my "all others" in Pool 3 in case I'm wrong, which has been known to happen!)

that leaves 2 of my top 3 for this year (and while I need to figure out some "bottoms" for tris/supers, I can't see changing my mind)

BOB'S BLACKJACK-seems to improve every time out- doesn't need the lead but does have enough speed to stay out of the inevitable traffic jam that comes with a 20 horse field.SA Derby Day was "closer day" at Santa Anita so with track bias considered was the best horse in the SA Derby. Will offer great value and WILL BE MY DERBY DAY PLAY if he gets into the race. (Graded Earnings concerns!)

if he doesn't get in (no one will agree with this but that's ok) WAR PASS- the track at Aqueduct for the Woods had to be drying out quite a bit and he did show that there were no physical problems which had been a concern after Tampa (Other than the 2 staples they put in his head a day or two before the Derby-I know alot of "experts" say that had no effect, but I gotta think that had to have at least a minor effect on his Woods performance) And the Tampa Race along with the second mean that those who do pick "the champ" (and he is still the champ!) will be rewarded with a decent pay-off (OK, now that I did this, it's a toss-up between he and Bob-wonder how many more times I'll change my mind before Derby Day)

JD, please do not write an article about how you like Smooth Air. We need to keep his odds at 40-1 or better. My angle this year is not including any horse that runs from the back. I do not see any of these 3 year olds passing 10 to 15 horses at the end. Box the speed/stalker horses and follow the bullet works the next couple of weeks. The winner has to be able to put up a 105-110 beyer. I think Smooth Air, BB, War Pass, and Bob Black Jack (might not get in) can do that. I think War Pass needed the Wood to regain his part form. Remember Street Sense would have been well back last year if 3 lanes on the rail did not open up. Hard Spun would have won easily.

Breaking News!!! War Pass is out of the derby with a front left sesamoid crack.

I agree, keep an eye on War Pass, even though Zito seems a bit unsure himself. My geuss is Zito is concerned with the distance and all that can happen on the triple crown trail. I am sure he and his owners are considering saving him up for some spring Belmont races summer fun like the Jim Dandy and the Travers. If he goes to the post in the Derby I will be looking him over in the paddock and post parade. He may be the horse that comes in looking like a monster.

K,

handicappers, I see on the bris pps that the 8.5f races start close to the turn and run the full length of the stretch coming home. Now, I thought Keeneland had a full run into the turn and an abbreviated stretch at 8.5f. Did they change the configuration with the surface??

DRF shows the old config with the finish line moved up to the 16th pole...

can we please get some dialogue going on war pass being out and what effect it will have on the flow of the race (if any at all) ... does this help big brown's chances or hurt them? (surely it hurts the price you are going to get) ... what about those on the cj/pyro bandwagon or anyone else coming from the back? ... obviously there is still a lot of speed in the race (and throw in the fact that bbj is now more likely to be in) ... but i do believe war pass would have been the one wanting the front the most and thereby running his heart out to not let anyone by at any early juncture ... any opinion on this is appreciated ...

I think even though there should still be plenty of pace in the race, this is going to hurt deep closers like Court Vision and Visionaire. With War Pass in there gunning for the lead there was a very good chance for suicidal fractions up front. With him out, this just helps the other speed in the race which includes Big Brown. I still am on the Colonel John bandwagon though. I don't think that he will be coming from out of the clouds so he won't need crazy fractions up front in order to win.

full of fire...

I thought abou your request for dialogue about the effect of War Pass being out and it may have a HUGE effect on the way I play the Derby! I was no way, no how, going to use Big Brown due to the lack of experience, but now, if Bobs Blackjack doesn't get in the race, I may actually have to make him my top pick (depending on post position draw-he did win the Fla. Derby from #12, but can't see him (or anyone) wiring the field from 18 out. (17 isn't terrible due to the fact that it's next to where the 2 gates separate which cuts in half the chance of getting sandwiched at the break) I'm going to have to figure out whether or not Recapture the Glory will go with him, whether Cowboy Cal will go with him (possibly improving Monba's chances) etc. I still can't use a deep closer-too much potential for traffic problems, and while it's very possible someone could close from way out to win-I'm not clairavoyant enough to know who will get what kind of trip and be that closer)

HERE'S MY UPDATED TOP 5
1.) BOBS BLACKJACK (will rate just off the lead and enough speed to stay out of trouble)

2.) MONBA- again will be mid-pack I'm guessing and wouldn't it be ironic if the year people have counted Pletcher out is the year he actually wins the Derby (I've already got him in pool 3 as part of "all others" and my win bet on derby day will be a horse I don't already have covered.)

3.) BIG BROWN? (if he gets the post the injury to War Pass could allow him to wire this field after all)

4.) Z HUMOUR- "Hunch Play" in gimmix (already have him covered-pool 1 individual bet and pool 3 as part of all others)

5.) COLONEL JOHN- is a nice horse but my "gut" tells me he won't win. Still wouldn't be safe to ignore in gimmix

LOL.."I hate you"...what a loser. Thanks for revealing your betting strategy. That's a pretty neat way to play it. I didn't understand if the top three tri as one two with all costs 108...is that right?

Somebody tell me why Recapture is getting no love? I can't see much difference b/w what he and big brown did last out? (front fractions aside).

On Value: Value is in the eye of the beholder. The first rule of investing is diversify, diversify. However, Warren Buffett made billions with his own rule: Don't lose money. Depending on how you bet, you can be successful betting favorites or betting longshots. Favorites win about 1/3rd of the time, and if you pass on the races they lose, and figure out when they're a lock, you can make some money, and you won't have to weather the droughts that longshot players endure. But you might have to risk more. If you've got an eye for spotting vulnerable favorites, you can hit some nice longshots. At SA, a lot of locks were vulnerable this year on the main track because at the beginning of the meet, speed killed, then the surface switch, and late quick move won most races. The public still hasn't adjusted and still bets speed too hard. The handicapper who wins the most is the one that can spot a lock, and can spot a vulnerable favorite and play against when warranted. Pick and choose.

On War Pass: I always thought that if Big Brown gets the lead at any time, he'll be tough to run down. He'll get the lead a lot sooner now (knocking on wood). Don't necessarily know if the pace slows down though. Certain horses might have been planning on taking back, but now see the front wide open. War Pass was in no way going to allow the race to be stolen, now perhaps Recapture, Gayego, BBJ, and Big Brown might feel they can wire if they get out front.

Adjusted Pace Scenario:

1. Recapturetheglory
2. Cowboy Cal
3. Gayego
4. Big Brown
5. Bob Black Jack

Cd,

Nice call on Millenium Jet, he ran well.

Your welcome JD.

The word is out on Smooth Air, the drf has posted concerning the colt training recently, working a mile in an unorthodox method, passing the wire and beyond. The trainer says he will not let the colt out of his sight, and plans to ride in the cargo plan with the colt for the first time. Added Insurance. I think he believes finishing second with his colt which has room to improve, allows for a little redemption? of course at 40-1 as you hope.

derbyme,

Thanks. Not as well as I had hoped though.

check out my blog at

www.myspace.com/californiaturftimes

lemme know what you think

I love this horse and the way he comes flying from the back of the pack. He is the strongest deep closer in the field and could be a big factor if there is an early suicide pace.

He ran under :38 in the final 3 furlongs of both the Remsen and Fountain of Youth. His final eighth in the Remsen was 12.63 at Aqueduct, a track he's supposed to dislike (the Wood).

I think we've only seen a small glimpse of his ability. He catches War Pass and Tale of Ekati at the Derby distance. His critics say he he's too slow and should have won the race. This is a classic example of a horse whose running style fails in the shorter prep races.

Thrilled with his :46.2 breeze at Churchill, a track he adores.

Oops - Court Vision is the subject of my props.

Just a curious thought....

Seems that a handicapper really dosent do more than analyze the variables and play the odds from there. The more varaibles you know the better educated guess(es) your going to make come race day.

Just as a quick racing story. My soon to be wife used to hate to gamble (whats she doin with me?) So i calmed myself for a while. Well come derby time last year....she was out of the country. She came home to an engagement ring i did soo well. She wanted to know how I did it. I taught her a thing or two and from then on she caught the itch. She's an athlete, and believes its all in the training. Im a workaholic and believe it all comes down to crunch time....How does the horse perform under the final workload? So as a tradition to how we started, once a year, racing becomes something we can share and do together, and we had some great times the rest of the crown last year.

April 1, we start our debating (she actually reminded me this year) Lil extra money lil extra time spent together.... Win win.

Anyway, enough of the mushy gabage.

We always try to agree on a top three, then of course we have our longshot hopefulls.

She's all about Eight Belles (Women sticking together I tell ya, even when it involves cross entering, which leaves a bad taste in my mouth.... Another reason she probably favors the phillie)

Since Warpass's injury ive been forced to start looking a lil harder...

Now, theres always the semantics of animals having personalities being true or not. Ive read, heard, and noticed that Adriano, when running or training with a stable mate.. You just get that vibe... He's out there playing. Just runnin having a good ol time. What concerns me...is at the wire. If i opt to play him. I dont want to see his stride change if/when he gets out front (when he gets his lil showboat gait).

I think he's got an excellent chance...IF HE JUST KEEPS RUNNING like the Alpo and Elmar's Glue trucks are chasin' him.

Just curious if anyone else thinks where the horse puts his head down and next to who could be a factor come April 30th at the draw, and ultimately the 3rd come race day.

Keep in mind, im all the way in California, ive never made it to the derby (someday, i promise) I rely on video feeds and web research (like i said someday ill get that high in person), im just curious what the stable conditions are like and who's bunking where. where could one go to find that kind of info out?