15,900 Reasons to Cheer, 10,000 Reasons to Pray, 20 Horses to Meet,12 Days to Go

Justin -
after reading all the wagers you make on the derby, I am less impressed with the huge scores referenced in your blog bio, although I like your thinking on the trifecta scheme you mentioned in your last blog - Top 3 first and second with all for $108 (based on past experience, I think Top 3 first and thir with all will work best for me, as I always seem to miss the second horse). How much do you usually have on the race - looks like an easy grand based on the bets you mention here, futures, and the tri from last blog, and I'm sure you have some Pick 4's and Pick 6's...
I love your blog, though, as there seem to be quite a few insightful individuals who post here. BTW, I am starting to get a gut feeling about Adriano, also. I think he is this year's Hard Spun, and Big Brown and the Colonel are no Street Sense. Please, in addition to your "best value" horse, please tell us this year who you think is the best, regardless of odds, as you will be there to see the horses train and many of us will not

Justin,

I was waiting to get your insight on the race. After watching the last few races my thoughts are favoring colonel john and monba are at the top of my list. I usually split a trifecta with my cousin where we take 1 horse to come in the top 3 and wheel him with the field. I think last year it cost us a little over a grand. Ever since i missed the tri when afleet alex came in third i been sick knowing i would have hit that one for 400k. any way good luck everyone and have fun with it

These are my three: Visionaire, Smooth Air and Z Fortune. I like all three, and I think any one of the three could win the Derby. Just give me two of these three to finish 1-2. I only have to decide who I am playing for the win. I am leaning toward Smooth Air.

Justin, et al-

Emphasis on "start" is the key. The more I think bets, the less I want to pigeon-hole myself with absolutes. This year, maybe more than others, might be the year to watch the works at Churchill and see which horse handles what. Wait till the end to fix on your plays. Remember Hard Spun's blistering works last year and the debate about whether he was set to romp or (the more vocal opinion) that he was killing himself too much. I think he proved he was more a horse for the course, then a speedball killing himself in workouts.

I like hearing about Court Vision taking to the Churchill surface and look forward to seeing the other numbers come in. Not a fan of the Pletcher policy of keeping horses at Keeneland until a day or two before the Derby.

That being said, as always, it's easier to eliminate horses before you pick the winners. That being said, I've likely eliminated Anak Nakal, Visionaire, Recapturetheglory, Z Humor, Bob Black Jack, Behindatthebar, Cowboy Cal and Cool Coal Man.

If Pyro hated Keenelands track so much why is he still there working out over it???

betteratdogs,

Yeah, I can't claim to have nailed any of he recent Derbies. My only "winner" was Fusaichi Pegasus. However, my winter/early-spring opinions have led me to a few big scores. I had a future wager on Monarchos at 17-1, but dismissed him on Derby Day. And I mentioned the Giacomo exacta and future wager. All in all, it's probably between 1-2k on the Derby itself. On one hand, I will definitely take a stand and make my pick, but I spread the money around. I think it makes sense. The Derby is a unique opportunity. Also, I will definitely post all of my opinons here Derby Week.

Mike Barker,

I am just totally confused by Pyro. No idea what to make of that last race. If the private clockers tell me he likes Churchill, I can see myself using him. But I'd rather take a chance and cash a big ticket.

Yeah Justin I've been trying to figure it out and I have hit a few derbies in the last 11 years too so I feel confident, but I haven't hit since 2005 so I feel that I am about due for another one! I like playing the exacta with conviction, and the year Giacomo won I had a 50 dollar straight exacta on Giacomo with Afleet Alex...I hate Closing Argument...and one year the only bet I made was a good sized exacta straight on Fusaichi Pegasus with Aptitude. That Barbaro with Bluegrass Cat exacta was one I should have hit along with you, had I not had too many drinks and failed to execute my well planned strategy and resorted to a more wild and all or nothing strategy during the day. But you make a good point about the strategy...and I think this year could be another one like that, with Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat, a top tier near favorite with a middle tier 20 or 30 to one horse.

I think you have to look again at Big Brown and at least use him on top with a middle tier horse that you like on the bottom of the exacta, even if you don't like Big Brown. I could easily see a Big Brown runaway and a nice price coming in for second, like one from your list. I wouldn't limit my bets to that, especially if you are looking for a big price, but you can still have a good day at the office when the favorite wins. And one more thing about Blugrass Cat...I had bet him to win in one of the future wagers and failed to bet him to place and show on Derby day, which was painful too when I missed the exacta I should have played along with Barbaro looking so obvious in immediate retrospect...

I have seen a lot of folks lately mentioning Smooth Air, even though everything I've seen about his pedigree indicates he can't get the distance. Under what race scenario do those of you who like him see him hitting the board, ever less winning? I really want some insight, because I see him as almost a safe throwout (like rommccan I start with throwouts and work toward a winner). I'm guessing the second to Big Brown is what inspires thoughts of him running well, but Gulfstream is speed biased and his pedigree just doesn't support anything close to the Derby distance. What am I missing?

Why would Pyro train in the fog on a track that he hated a few weeks ago? Either S.A. is brilliant and he's keeping us all stupid,or he's lost his mind.I can't for the life of me understand why you would train when you couldn't clock the trip. S.A. can't be concerned with Pyro's last race. Also, I'm not sure how you can give your selections with out knowing the pp's. No matter how you handicap this race the pp's are going to be critical. It seems like the Oaks/Derby double will have great value!

fabs,

yeah I'm not giving out a final choice, just STARTing to think about the bets, as Justin mentioned it is a start only. Yeah Pyro, who knows...what a mystery. I told myself before the Blue Grass that I would draw a line through the Blue Grass and I'm going to take my own advice and not even consider that the race happened. I think Pyro will be ready to run on May 3rd, or he won't race. If he's not right, Asmussen won't run him. I think Pyro has a great shot to hit the board and I like him a lot in the #3 and #4 spot for the superfecta. I think you might see 2 favorites and 2 bombers in the superfecta.

betteratdogs,

Smooth Air ran huge in the FL Derby. It is speed favoring, and he came from way back made an entirely impressive move and beat the third place horse by 7+ lengths. If Big Brown was not in the race he stops the clock in 1:49+ going away impressively. His pedigree is suspect, but he's shown the talent to win at 7f in the Gr. II Swale and the ability to route, hard closing 3rd in Sam F. Davis and 2nd in Fl Derby. His class is undeniable, and his talent and athleticism gives him a shot at a major piece. Big Brown should be gone though.

patbateman, I can't help thinking that Pyro maybe a monster and win this derby with ease. If you watch his first two races this year you'll see a turn of foot late unlike any other horse has shown this year. I made a huge mistake, I took Pryo in the first pool for 2k, and 5k in the second. At the time I thought those odds were a gift. Now I can see him going off at 7 or more to 1. I still believe he can win but will not put another dollar on him unless his pp is 2 thru 10.

Fabs, wow I hope to win something like the amount you are throwing down, good luck man yeah I like Pyro a lot in every way but the Blue Grass. The Beyer figures he ran this year never bothered me because he always ran within the confines of the race as run by the whole field, and was dominant in both his first 2 preps. Like Street Sense last year, he ran a huge number in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, so you have to think that his connections can get him to produce on the big day...I have some on Pyro too from pool #3, at least enough to ensure that I break even for the whole Derby if I get nothing else right. I'll bet him some more and if he goes off at 8 or 9 to one then I may bet some on him to place and show. Barring post position disasters I think Big Brown and Pyro are locks for the superfecta, and I think any number of horses could join them, including Colonel John, Denis of Cork, and my future wager major commitmnet, Z Fortune. I have more than I expected to have in Z Fortune from the future wager, but Pyro paid for my pool 2 investment and Tiago paid for my pool 3 investment, so I've taken a big shot for me and I'm just thrilled that the horse is in the race and looking like he has a decent shot. One thing we have in common is we both hope Asumssen knows what he's doing.

Gayego!!!

And with what many of you are saying, I might get him at better odds than Z Fortune.

This would be downright dumb, because Gayego would have won the Arkansas even if they went 1 1/2m.

patbateman, Thanks I wish you well also. In the last six years I've played the following. War Emblem, Funny cide, Smarty jones, Afleet Alex, Brother Derek, and Street Sense. I feel Pyro is the same kind of horse as Afleet Alex, who I believe with a better trip in the Derby would have been a TRIPLE CROWN WINNER. I just can't see any of these horses hooking up with Pyro when it's time to go. It's crazy but I see this race as a cake walk for Pyro, if he runs his race. But I've gone from being certain to IF. To make things worse I felt with a good workout today he and I would be ready. But leave it to Asumssen to train him in the fog! Now I'm in a fog.

WOW! It must be difficult not to break your arm when patting yourself on the back?! When March Madness rolls around next year, please share your picks because you undoubtedly will have a perfect bracket.

It's starting to sound like Adriano will be this years Wise-Guy horse. My opinion - Court Vision will be sitting on a big race at a big price! Toss any horse whose name starts with an "A" and "Z".

Potato, yeah Gayego was at his peak on April 12th, I will hand it to you. And man were they close to clipping heels 3 times in the stretch that would have been a bummer. I bet Gayego too for 20 bucks at 74 to one or whatever in pool 3 because I was worried I might lose my significant Z Fortune commitment if he didn't get the earnings, so it would suck for me if Gayego wins May 3, but I will have some money to walk away with, and I haven't been as happy about a 2nd place finish since Aptitude awhile back as I was when Z Fortune returned to form and, maybe I am myopic because I already liked the horse, but did anyone else see the gallop out of the Arkansas Derby and did that mean anything at all to you? Maybe I'm just wearing the rose colored glasses on Z Fortune, and please don't get me wrong, he is not a lock and I don't feel about him the way I do about Big Brown and Pyro being absolute locks for the superfecta. Gayego, I've got him covered with that 20 dollar future wager bet and I am planning on playing against him on all tickets as a bounce candidate, distance exclusion and pace victim.

Pretty Boy, remember you can only led a horse to drink!

Bet on it

Pat,

I think you're spot on for the most part. I just watched a close up of Big Brown in the last few strides of the Florida Derby and he was playing with his ears!! Barring foot problems he'll eat this slow field for lunch. I'll key him over some bombs in a super. I won't play wins on him. No real value. I'll play across the board on my favourite longshot instead. That'll either be Denis of Cork or Court Vision. I love how they've both been working at Churchill. I might just play across on 'em both. A lot will depend on the works for me this year. Good luck to all. Even Potato.

JD. I think I see where your going, with the recent injury to War Pass, the first flight of horses are going to stick around longer. I am also sure, one or two will hit the board. Three of the five selected are in the first group down the back stretch and into the turn.

You probably took Adriano based on the jockeys choice over Monba and Tale of Ekati.

But what did you see in Visionaire? I should ask Mike if he still believe this colt is extremely high on his list?

Mike, that a interesting comment on Pyro. Maybe the flight schedule was pre-book and cannot be changed or the track is safer to train on, but not necessary good for Pyro to race on?

Well Steve has his work cut out for sure. But I keep coming back to a racing comment earlier. Pyro and Curlin trained together. I believe the bluegrass stakes exposed a troubling character issue with Pyro. Running along to rail down the back stretch. In the L-Derby he enter the stretch along the rail and shifted outside for the win. In the bluegrass, they simply did not let him outside and he ran evenly while taking a couple hits with the whip!

What do you think? Does the colt have an issues running along the rail?

Maybe Pyro's owners just wanted to get a bigger price on him come Derby day. I can't for the life of me understand why they're still working at Keeneland after saying how much he hated the track. "Our horse hates this track, Churchill, where the Derby is run, is a hop skip and a jump from here. I know, let's run him on the track he can't stand and not prepare him for the track he's going to be running on!" Can someone please explain the logic? Pyro is a toss. He's a lock to not be in the superfecta.

Pat,
I saw Z Fortune's gallop out after the Ark Derby - and I liked what I saw. He galloped right past Gayego - who, incidently, did not look good in the gallop out to me. I except another big effort from Z Fortune in the Derby. I think Asmussen has a better shot with this one than Pyro. I have thought that all along.

So Rick Porter is gonna enter eight belles in the oaks and the derby, and scratch her from what ever race she draws bad in, i just think thats wrong and he has no class am i over reacting? please someone tell me...I love her to win the Oaks butif he does that i might just not bet her in the Oaks because you know why...I have one word for you Rick Porter .......KARMA

And yes Barry i still love Visionaire

Aight fellas, let's not over analyze this too much. That is crazy to hear from me because I have been studying PP's since January. But the race is at Churchill Downs. On real dirt. Who has the best PP's on real dirt? Who has won a race at CD? Who likes the surface? The answer is fairly simple - PYRO!

He even closed willingly in the BC Juv race in the mud. So, if it rains, I still like him. Now, I am like Justin, when it comes to value - I demand it. I believe Pyro will be in the range of 7/1 - 8/1 on Derby Day. That is $16 - $20 on a win ticket. I usually demand more value on Derby Day, but I feel like there is value for Pyro. The Bluegrass is a total toss in my book (but the good news is that it helps my price). Visionaire was the only horse that closed any ground. Big Truck, Pyro and Cool Coal Man finished 9th - 11th position. Did they become bad horses over night? I doubt it. Visionaire is in my Top 3 since he did close some ground in that race.

However, if you look at dirt PP's, no other horse has been as consistent as Pyro. He always fires his bullet and finishes strong. Two horses I keep hearing about are Visionaire and Z Fortune. Pyro raised his leg on them as he went by them at the Fairgrounds - plus Shaun let off the gas before the wire. By the way, that race was on real dirt and Pyro has no issues at all on that surface. He is top class. All that is left is for me to dig out my Def Leopard CD and jam it to Pyro's theme song as I take my 15 minute drive to Churchill on Derby Day!

--JJJimmyJam

As I said earlier, I like Pyro and Gayego in the 1 spot.

I will be using all of the following at the bottom of exotics:
Big Brown
Smooth Air
Colonel John
Bob Black Jack
Recapturetheglory
Z Humor
Z Fortune

I am taking any and all suggestions on how to play the race with my picks in mind.

What we need to understand is that these are 3 year olds who are still maturing, learning and improving at this point of the season. Horses who may have been a bit behind the game in learning and maturing 1-2 months ago may very well be improving leaps and bounds from the last time we saw them and ready to explode on Derby day. That is what makes this the hardest race to handicap. Cant go back on a horse's form from 2 months ago and especially last year. (Pyro's devastating stretch run in the Risen Star was a long time ago). I personally believe Pyro's 10th place finish in the Blue Grass is a sign to stay away. No Derby winner out of the past 20 has finished worse than 4th in his final prep. I like to stick with a horse that showed some determination in his last prep. Doesnt necessarily have to be a winner of his last prep, but preferably a forward move of some kind with no loss of ground in the stretch...My prediction is this year's Derby winner comes from one of these three preps (which, incidently, provided the fastest times): Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby. Focus on the top two finishers of each of those races and you will find your Derby winner. Toss the rest - too slow.

Smooth Air, Z Fortune, Colonel John, Big Brown. All showed nice moves in the later stages of their last preps at 1 1/8 mi. Z Fortune is reminding me an awful lot of Silver Charm...Watch Smooth Air's move right before the turn for home in the Fla Derby, Watch Colonel John's SA Derby stretch run, watch Z Fortune's forward move in the Arkansas Derby. Of course we all know how Big Brown looked. I think all four of these horses have enough speed, and I think all four will be making forward moves while the others are coming back to them. Now, just got to hope for decent post positions, decent weather, no major traffic problems, and alot of racing luck. It's that easy. Isnt it? Ha

By what everyone is saying, I am starting to get the feeling that I will get better odds on Gayego than on Z Fortune and Bob Black Jack.

Is this crazy talk or is it actually possible? In my opinion Gayego is the best of the 3 as he has proven it on the track.

For everyone and myself who has early wager on Pyro. I watched on TVG the week prior to the BG as he was schooling in the paddock. The practice is not uncommon, but everyone on their staff was going GAH GAH on how great he looked. Except the derby, I will not bet a horse unless I can see them in a post parade or paddock if possible. I took (1) look at him and turned to my wife and said "I've seen better looking PLOW horses". To some of you, the BG race was a race to bet on. This was a given because some horses were in it for the exercise. I saw one horse worth a wager on Derby day, and he is Visionaire. Now there are some alert people here who have noticed that Pyro? is still training over the KEE surface he hated so much. You know why, it's because of something I've suspected all along - HE IS A PLOW HORSE. Bet him at your own risk, he'll be on lower side of my gimmicks and that's it.

The only reason Pyro is still training at Keenland is because it is the easiest/safest surface for the horse. I would still be there myself if I was them, then come to Churchill for his last work. You guys see this as a negative because he is still at the track he hates so much, is he still racing there??? No so what does it matter. He is on a track that limits horses injuries so why not keep him there. They have already seen the BC winner go down and I dont think they want to follow. As long as he gets one good work over churchill I think he will fine. Not a Pyro fan but tired of people hating on him because he is still there. Still dont think he will be able to close on the best horse. Praying for rain/mud so we can see another smarty jones type performance from the best horse, BIG BROWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow... Pyro's a plow horse... didn't see that one coming. Hey, let the owners know I'll take that plow horse off their hands at any time for 100 bucks. Mike B., I'm with you on the Eight Belles issue... if they do that... classless. Don't know if I can add much to what DerbyMe said about Smooth Air except that I think he's training awfully well. Stutts putting those 1M and 7F works into him, may actually overcome his pedigree issues in this Derby year. He was moving really well at the end of the FLA. Derby and is one of only a handful to Beyer 98+ at 1 1/8. Hey if for some reason BB doesn't fire, which I think is a distinct possibility, this guy could definitely be ITM or win. Z fortune looks good to me jharvat. Strong gallop out in the Ark. Derby. Good form over dirt. Pedigree with Siphon okay. And I don't understand those that say he hung in the Ark. He broke from post 10 or 11, was wide on both turns, and I think would have been closer to Gayego if Mike Smith hadn't employed his typical trick of drifting out a bit to impede any oncomers. He's good at it. Thought it took a bit of Z Fortune's momentum twice. Anyways, think Z Fortune is a win contender. But still feel Colonel John is top dog for the Derby win.

barbeach - If the KEE surface is so safe for Pyro. Then wouldn't it be just as safe for his other entrant - Z Fortune?
Food for thought don't you think?
jharvat - I'm with you on Z Fortune. I don't know if the "Gallop Out" was by design. But, Albarado definitely wanted to see what would happen and tapped him on the shoulder a couple of times. The fact that the jock stays speaks volumes for his chances.
slot33 - I have to agree that CJ is the best in the West. But, I can't bet a horse to win who has never run on the dirt, Especially the quirky CD surface on Derby Day.
FINALLY - For all of the BB lovers - You better hope for a sloppy track. Those brittle little hoofs will be stinging all the way around the - harness racing hard - track record setting Derby day oval. Anyone remember a monster called - Point Given - and he only had (1) trouble hoof.

Court Vision and Z Humor...Enough said.

Some trainers believe that horses can get more fitness out of poly track training than dirt training. It helps on conditioning. That is why Pyro is training on it. But he comes to CD today and will have his last work early next week at CD.

sdi1958 - It is laughable that you say Pyro is a PLOW horse. Then you say Visionaire is worth a wager. Like I said, Pyro already beat Visionaire at the Fairgrounds easily. And that was when Pyro had traffic problems. Also, Z Fortune was another that Pyro ran on by.

The statistics that show no horse has won the Derby when finishing worse than 4th in their last prep is correct but silly to take into consideration. Was there goofy poly tracks 10, 15, 20 , 50 years ago?

Asmussen and Tagg (Pyro / Big Truck) both said to draw a line through the Bluegrass race. I will take their recommendation.

--JJJimmyJam

sdi1958,
Yes it is food for thought but you must not be familiar with the problems Z Fortune's owner had with the people in California about the synthetic track there. This is why J Be K and others are no long with Baffert and now with Steve Asmussen. It is solely an owner issue, and I dont think you will see Z Fortune or any of Zayat's horses on or near Keenland. I dont think he has had a starter there yet this year. Pyro's owners probably sent him there for the Blue grass because it was the safest surface to run his last race, win or lose it didnt matter they were going to the Derby no matter what. Now he is safe and sound, unlike the BC champ, and ready to tackle the best this country has to offer. Seems like they got a lot of people off their horse by doing this so they might get more money if they bet him to win with his odds creeping on up. I still think he is the real deal, but it will be hard to get by BIG BROWN.

GREAT BANTER _ I love it,
jjjimmyjam9 - I know everyone's goal is to win The Derby. But as an owner, It's also nice to win a little of the purse. I'm not a naysayer, I'm not the only person on the planet to think there's allways been something suspicious about Pyro. The race that he and Big Truck ran in the BG wasn't bad - it was AWFUL.
I may sound a bit tough on him. But, when was the last time the Ky Derby winner was crowned running in LA. in February. On the contrary, watch the race again. You'll have a whole new appreciation for the races that were run by Z Fortune and Visionaire. There were (2) glaring high percentage angles that came out in this race. FACT#(1) - It was Visionaire's 1st start around (2) turns - he was fresh from running in those one turn sprints - wich caused him to be a lot closer to the pace than he's ever been - and he lost by (3) lengths after all of that. Fact#(2) - As it has been the case with him all spring - Z Fortune was 4/5 wide around both turns - he still showed that nice turn of foot that you need in the Derby to get yourself out of possibly trouble - cleared for the lead B4 losing late to his stablemate. I was as surprised as anyone for (2) things that transpired prior to the ARK Derby. In the Rebel - It appeared to me that he didn't handle the track, but still made that nice move B4 flattening out out the top of the stretch. Then the decision to run him back in the ARK Derby. Again a wide post, wide trip, another nice move to reach contention for the win, and the aforementonied nice gallop out after the race. I'll take my chances with these (2) thank you.

Barbeach - Good points about Zayat's horses. But let's not forget that Baffert is one of the best Derby trainers out there. But, the real reason they shipped the horse from him was - the lost training time due to bad weather and growing concern for the track condition. It won't take Baffert long to adjust to the fake tracks, it wouldn't even surprise me if he left California. I guys has to making a living doing what he does best - doesn't he?

Pyro = Birdstone. Pyro was an early fave for the Derby, so was Birdstone. Pyro threw in a clunker in the Bluegrass, Birdstone in the Lanes End. Asmussen blamed Poly track, Zito sealed wetfast. Pyro will finish a disapointing 8th, skip the Preakness, then come back for the Belmont to ruin a bid at an unbeaten triple crown winner. As long as we're role playing, let's make Dennis of Cork = Rock Hard Ten and Bob Black Jack = Lion Heart.

Cd,

If you're playing just the 2 on top, might wanna play the Oaks double if you can find one or two you like there. Easier than picking the place horse in the Derby, I would think... Last year Rags (4/5) and Street Sense (4-1) who I thought were both locks paid $23+ in the double, about 1/2 the exacta which I also hit. But I thought Rags winning the Oaks was maybe 10x as likely as Hard Spun finishing 2nd in the Derby. Either of your horses will pay significantly more. I'm liking Pure Clan in the Oaks, especially if Eight Belles doesn't enter. I'll be playing her over Big Brown, Court Vision, and maybe Smooth Air or Visionaire this year.

1958 - Come on now - give the whole story. If you talk about Z and Vision's excuses in that race then talk about Pyro's.

You left off Fact #3 - In that same race, Pyro was buried in traffic and finally was able to release late in the stretch. He tried to pick 2 - 3 different holes to run through at the top of the stretch and they kept closing on him. Luckily, he is push button enough to get out of trouble fast. If he doesn't encounter that trouble he probably wins by 5 or more lengths. Shaun let off the gas and coasted in before the wire....

Fact #1 was that it was not Visionaire's first race around two turns. The Gotham was. Facts should be facts not fiction. good points though.

Sorry sdi1958 I was mistaken, I thought you were referring to the Blue Grass, but still I was wrong. Good luck with the Visionaire and Z Fortune bet.

Okay everyone. For those still loving Pyro, check out Paul Moran's column on espn.com. Very interesting read and comments from Asmussen. According to the words of Mr. Moran, War Pass, injured, is no longer in the mix. Asmussen worries both that War Pass' absence will soften the pace for the deep-closing Pyro and that the Blue Grass Stakes was less than the purposeful prep he had envisioned.

"It raised some doubts I didn't have before," Asmussen said."

These are definitely not words of a confident trainer and I won't be anywhere near betting the horse on May 3rd.

Derbyme - Love the comparison between Pyro and Birdstone. Looks valid to me. I am just waiting to hear the list of excuses when he doesn't hit the board on Derby day as they will be ten miles long.

WATCH OUT
Colonel John will run a record time in the DERBY. 158. SO key the Colonel John to win w/all Just look at his race times just off record times.

I love the back and forth.

Sdi,

I don't think the hard track will make a difference to Big Brown's feet. The track for the Florida Derby was plenty hard. Evidenced by Electrify's track record. It seems the vet has found a way of circumventing that problem. I hope the problem is behind him cause he's one hell of a talented horse and I hate to see talent wasted.

So Borel is in and Cornelio is out of the Derby. Big Truck and Pyro both work on the polytrack following the Blue Grass...Man the connections of Denis of Cork got so lucky, or will be so lucky when they officially get into the race. But luck aside, they are now going to be in the race and DOC will be the horse to handicap, along with Adriano. Who is Mario Pino riding this year? Eight Belles? I don't think Jones would make that call...What sort of odds will DOC have, 20-1, 30-1? 12-?

I wouldn't bet that horse with Monopoly Money

Decent take on tightening up your Derby thought process: http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?colum...

Other thoughts...I like winners. Don't you? What has Z Fortune won? If he goes 0-3 during this season's prep races, are you really going to stand by him as a contender when he runs against the 20 best three-year-olds? Same goes for Bob Black Jack. Same goes for Visionaire, whose only win was against a field of nobodies in the Gotham. If you want to key them at the bottom of your exotics, I can see it, but let's not make it any harder than it needs to be when picking horses with a real chance at the top of a ticket. Really, who cares how forward a horse was moving at the end of whatever race they had no chance of ever winning?

You don't think one of the horses who have been busy winning the races they enter (Colonel John, Big Brown, Pyro, Gayego, Tale of Ekati) will get that extra 1/4? I'm a believer in finding a champion horse and that you find one by looking to see if he typically refuses to lose. Out of the horses who haven't won recently, I really only like Court Vision as a possible contender.

It's all so early. We need to see them ship, train, acclimate, wonder why there are thousands of idiots staring at them, see what kind of weather they get, and rehash the comments made by their connections to test for potential weakness. But before I do all that...I'm going to try and remember which ones typically win.

The buzz surrounding Big Brown sounds familiar. I'm always skeptical when everyone gets on the band wagon and hypes a particular horse as the next racing superstar.

The last three years provide examples.

In 2007, Curlin was undefeated without a race at Age 2. Many thought his extraordinary talent rendered his inexperience meaningless. He was the fastest horse in the field showing multi-dimensional styles winning his prep races easily. He ran 3rd.

In 2006, Sinister Minister earned an irrelevant 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the Blue Grass Stakes prior to Barbaro's effortless Kentucky Derby victory.

In 2005, Bellamy Road powered into Churchill as the most dominant Derby prospect in history. He won his last two prep races by more than 15 lengths, set a track record in the Wood Memorial, and achieved a 120 Beyer. He finished 6th in a memorable meltdown.

Big Brown will not finish in the Top 5. He will have to outrun his distance challenged pedigree, find comfort on a hard Churchill track surface, correct his eratic running style in the stretch, and avoid a suicide pace.

How can you disregard Big Brown's hoof problems that could prevent him from running his best in the world's most difficult race? Look at the seemingly minor hoof problems that hampered Unbridled Song in 1996 and Empire Maker in 2003.

Full of Fire,

I read it. My humblest and most sincere apologies. My comment should have been directed to Mac.

The line is of course guess work and your changes are very plausible though I see Gayego further out that 10s. On reflection I think CCM will be about 30-1. No articels are being written about him and it seems like most of the experts have forgotten this guy. He's only in 3 of the experts' top 10 on this site ( at #6 #7 & #9). I'll be playing him in my exotics for sure. I expect the Mineshafts to improve with time and if he can improve off the FOY he could be right there at the end. Of course the BG is a toss. I don't expect the Mineshafts to like the Poly.

Helloooo race fans ----- Colonel John, Court Vision. Z Humor, and Recature the Glory boxed all exotics!!! The col. large to win/place, the others are savers across. Possibly also with three floaters: walk Big Brown, Adriano, and Monba, thru the above four in the tri and the super if you have deeper pockets. BEWARE Mott is very proficient at the DOWNS

Guiltfree,

Sinister Minister went wire to wire on the golden rail at Keeneland. Everyone knew that was a fluke and he was a horse for the course. He went off at double digit odds higher than Barbaro, Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Lawyer Ron among others. He certainly was not hyped.

I agree with the others mentioned though.

I have to think conventional and toss all of the horses that have not had at least 3 preps at 3.

romccann,

Loved the article. He articulated nicely the way I feel about Adriano. Caveat emptor! If Mac is reading this, I hope you read that article.

Guiltfree,

Point taken about the hyped superstars. Let me distinguish Big Brown from them if I can.

Curlin - Big Brown breaks better and has more tactical speed than Curlin. It is more than likely that this trait will avoid the trouble that cost Curlin the Derby in '07.

Sinister Minister - Who really bought his Bluegrass? That was on a track that had a sick inside speed bias. Also, he was so washed out and fatigued looking after that race that any horseplayer knew that there was no way he was coming back in 3 weeks to give a big effort. I would have bet on him to come last (which I think he may have). Fact1 : The Florida Derby was run fast. Fact 2: Big Brown was scarcely blowing when he came back in. He looked as if he'd had a walk in the park. Along with this he was playing with his ears the final 16th. Fact 3: He'll have 5 weeks between races. He won't be nearly as tired as SM was and will avoid that pitfall. (There are also no Barbaros lurking here. Big Brown is the closest to him. Turf, Dirt, multiple 100+ Beyers etc.)

Bellamy Road - His race in the Wood was clearly too much. 1:47!! His Beyer was so high because the track was just playing normal fast that day. He ran his Derby 3 weeks too soon. He was also way too close to one of the fastest Derby paces ever and he was hung wide throughout. He was never the same after the Wood. The Florida Derby was run very fast. Close to track record time. But the track was playing like lightning the whole day. It was no surprise. See Sinister Minister comments above as well.

In my view Big Brown will only lose if the glue shoes don't do their job and he feels pain (which did not happen on the hard track at Gulfstream). This group appears too slow (with the possible exception of Colonel John).

Bring on more reasons to doubt. This blog can only help us all to have more perspective. Keep it up.

Romccann, get your point. Z fortune has had 4 preps and won his first, the Lecomte. You may think his other 3 runs were unimpressive but I thought the Arkansas run was solid. Wouldn't toss him for the win.

I think BB will have to be every bit the superhorse to take this year's Derby. Even with what appears to be a weaker than norm crop. It ain't easy to wire a Derby field. And I again harp back to his 3-race foundation. One of those was all the way back on Sept. 3, 07. So 7 months later he runs again. How much bottom does he retain from that Sept. race? Very little I'd say. Yes, then he romps at a mile against a very weak field and then runs his super race in the Fla. Derby... an exceptional win. I happen to think his veering in the stretch came from those tender feet. Anyways, can't bet him.

Curlin may have proven the best route horse last year, but he was not the fastest, or the most versatile. That would have easily been Hard Spun, speed with stamina, who actually had a style closer to Big Brown than Curlin does. As Randy Moss said repeatedly last year, Curlin's biggest liability was that he was not particularly fast either out of the gate or during most of the race. It was his late run and long stride that was his forte. His Derby problems were foreseeable.

I agree that BB has much more tactical speed and runs fast every furlong. Curlin runs 3, maybe 4 furlongs "fastly", the rest he prefers to relax as he lacks the early speed.

Betteratdogs,

Big Brown has a pedigree that is very deep on classical influence. His dosage index is 1.67, his CD is 0.31, and 23 of his 36 dosage points are in the classical branch of distribution. Simply put, he has the breeding to go at least 10 panels regardless of his running style. Although his sire is Boundary, who was a miler who also was good at 7 furlong sprints, his sire was Danzig by Northern Dancer, a sire line that has given us more winners at 1 mile and up than any other sire line. Even AP Indy has sired sprinters, but that does not make the AP Indy line any less potent.

Speaking of AP Indy, his sire Seattle Slew had a unique same generation cross between Round Table-Hail to Reason. Big Brown has that same cross in his pedigree. This cross is found in many successful stayers and route horses. BB's broodmare sire, Nureyev, was one of the most successful European sires who threw down many champion route horses and turf champions. Nureyev is a combo of speed and stamina, and gives that to his progeny. One progeny of Nureyev is Atticus, a colt that set the world record of 1:31.3 for the mile on turf. A record that stands to this day. BB may have also inhereited the enlarged LX-H heart gene via Miasmi (his second dam) who gets it from both her dam and her sire (she is a double copy dam).

That is obviously what you are missing about BB's pedigree, which IS indicative of a very good route horse from 8-12 furlongs. Research it yourself, and ignore handicappers who only judge a pedigree from the sire or dam. Remember, Bold Ruler sired Secretariat. The sire maniacs all said BR could never sire a classic champion.

Curious what anyone thinks of Recapturetheglory? At first when looking at his racing lines, I didn't think much of his speed as most of the internal fractions up to 6F seemed moderate to slow. Then I watched a few of his races and saw that he does possess good speed. My question is, can he carry it to get ITM, specifically hang on for 2nd? I notice Roussell is having him jog 1M and gallop 2M daily. I like to see when a trainer does that to build stamina. My initial analysis has him off all my tickets, even though he ranks high on my spreadsheet. I think he'll be in the front pack and then wilt. Think his highest Byrs. are aided by the Hawthorne track, his race quality is thin, and he only has 2 starts at 3. But I'm wondering if anyone out there can make a good case that he can finish 2nd.

Slot,
I agree. Z Fortune belongs with these. Anyone with eyes can see how the horse improved from his dull Rebel to his Arkansas Derby second place finish - and going a 1/16 mi further. If he doesnt race wide throughout in the Ark Derby, I think he wins it. While everyone is worried thinking what they should do about Pyro, sneaky Asmussen is sitting there not saying a whole lot about Z Fortune. Albarado is not dumb either. He knew to stay on him. Z Fortune cannot be discounted here....

To All,
What a difference a couple of weeks does. The Pyro I saw arrive at CD was not the same horse I said was a PLOW horse. Did anyone at KEE check the tatoo to make sure it was him. This by no way discards what was dismal effort in the BG, I still have my reservations.

ryanM,
There is a HUGE difference between Fast @ GP compared to CD. I've been at the rail of both tracks during the running of races. You can't even hear the horses running by you @ GP, they have track with more bounce to it. But, when CD is souped up - it's like a harness track - and the horses sound like thunder going by. It's been well documented that it's quirky and tends to have a "Stinging" feel to horses with tender hoofs.

ryan ... no worries man ... thanks for that ...

sdi,

It is true that Churchill is souped up for big days, but so was Gulfstream for the FL Derby. If the only way I can beat a horse is by hoping for a foot bruise...

geronimo, great pedigree analysis.

guiltfree, Sinister Minister took the lead turning for home, not that bad a race. Everyone race road Bellamy Road, thinking the only way they could beat him was to beat him to the lead. He came out of the race with an injury, and might have won with a better trip. Ditto Curlin. It was not that he couldn't win, it was that he didn't win. He gets an outside post or cleaner break, who knows?

ryan,
I too think CCM has a puncher's chance. He has blossomed into an absolutely stunning individual, he's bred to run forever, and he'll negotiate a nice stalking trip.

KEENELAND WEDNESDAY RACE #7 Horse # 4 Closeout will be All Aloneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee~~~!!

Justin:
Maybe I'm missing something. When we talk value don't we need to consider probability? If were trying to get the biggest bang for our buck shouldn't we consider not only how well a horse has run but also the probability that he can and will run fast enough for long enough to win? Now lets examine the history of the Derby! In the last six years that I've followed the Derby, one thing has been consistant. Every WINNER, no matter what his; odds, post position, jockey or trainer, has had prior to the derby at sometime in his life run a beyer figure of 100+. Also, every WINNER had run that 100+ beyer as a 2 year old. In this years Derby Field the horses that meet these conditions would be; Cool Coal Man, Pyro, Tale of Ekati. Big Brown qualifies but only as a 3 year old(which in the past has shown to mean nothing). Justin, your top pick last year was Scatt Daddy who did not meet any of the above conditions and did not perform well. Two years prior, you picked Giacamo who met the conditions and helped you cash box car numbers!!!

Anyone can find a number of reasons to show that a horse can be bet with value. However, what is the probability of that value having any value? A good example would be Big Brown; based on track history, he had a low probability of winning the Florida Derby from the 12 post. He also, because of his odds, had very low value. But, he had the speed and the class to show he could win and beat the odds. This could have been determined from a previous race. This year, there are three horses that meet both conditions, they have the probability of winning the Derby based on previous races. If you decide to pick any other horse, you are expecting that horse to do something he has never done before, in the toughest race of his life, going the longest distance he has ever gone. Your better value would be to buy lottery tickets. I believe you must consider the previous 100+ Beyer at all cost. This we give you the best probability of picking the winner. The value will be determined on race day!

Fabs,

I did not pick Scat Daddy or Giacomo. I picked Nobiz Like Shobiz and Noble Causeway.

Also, value does not mean "long odds". It means better odds than chances. For instance, if I think a horse has a 10% chance of winning, his odds should be 9-1. If his odds happen to be 14-1, that represent value. Conversely, if I think a horse has a 33% chance of winning, his odds should be 2-1. If his odds happen to be 6-5, that does not represent value. However, I have just stated that I am more likely to bet on the horse with a 10% chance of winning over the horse with the 33% chance of winning. I will do this because the odds offer better value.

Ya Mike,

You and everyone else thinks so. He is 8/5 ML and will probably go off at even money. Thanks for the hot tip (sarcasm).

Slot33,

If you like CoolCoal, you have to like Glory somewhat. He ran second to CoolCoal at Churchill last year. He seems to be improving at the right time too. I will not be playing him on top because, like you said, only 2 preps at 3. He will definitely be on the bottom of my exactas and tris.

I stand correted. But how can you determine value in this race without using the probability of the horse running a 100+ Beyer. Has any horse won the the derby without running a 100+ Beyer as a two year old?

What if RCG draws an aewsome post and say maybe they go in 1:12 ? Maybe he could steal it since War Pass wont be there to cut his throat..

Fabs, where are you getting your Beyer numbers? I agree that a horse with a 100+ Beyer may be an advantage to determining a Derby winner. You say that Cool Coal Man, Tale of Ekati and Pyro have run 100+ Beyers at 2 and 3. That's not correct. Both Cool Coal Man and Tale of Ekati haven't run a 100+ Beyer as a 2 or 3 year old. Pyro ran 100+ twice as a 2 year old but hasn't run a 100+ as a 3 year old. Are you sure you're referring to Beyers?

Also, I use the 100+ Beyer as a standard for 3 year olds but I qualify it... and say the horse has to have accomplished it at a distance of 1 1/16 or longer. I'm getting to the point where I think I should reduce the Beyer standard for a couple of reasons. One, year by year it seems the crops are running lower Beyer numbers (pretty shaky reason to change the standard). Two, the synthetic races. Definitely believe there's a bias where these numbers are given. Think, they should be raised by 4-5 points in my opinion.

Fabs - Speaking of beyer#s - I've used them, but when it comes to the Derby - are they real effective(just like a Racing Form). How many (20) horse races are run prior to the Derby - How many of these horses have run 1 1/4 miles - How many people are still analizing the Form at this stage to bet the race. That's what makes modern technology so great. The race itself is under a microscope starting with BC juvy. I can't remember the last time I used the form to handicapp the Derby (this is 31st). They say every thing comes full circle. I didn't use a form in 1977(my 1st) - I wasted time using it numerous times in between - But, when they start having 15+ horses in the gate - it's really useless. By the way, do you think the owners of DOC will chance using the "Sheet" to determine were their horse runs next. That almost cost them a chance to get in the Big Dance.

For All,
I don't know everyone's betting strategies or $$ limits. I think everyone has their top (5) that they like, as do I. I think one of the best options for players is the TRI/Key. If you key (1) / over (8) it cost $56 for a $1. This allows you to key a horse in (5) TRI's and allows you to add (4) horses on the bottom. The total cost is $280. Considering, I can't remeber the last time a TRI paid less than $300 for $1 on the Derby - this is an option that I'll have covered.

sdi1958, I agree with you on the beyers issue with a 15plus field, I have been going for 23 years but how do you come up with $56 for a TRI/Key 1 over 8 I must be having a brain freeze.

sdi1958, Nevermind I pulled my head out, very good option

Mike B.
As is history with me, I keep a copy of newspaper on the Sunday after the Derby. Last year HS had it his own way on the front end, getting 6f in 1:11.13 / Mile in 1:37+. It didn't do him any good, while he was a clear 2nd, he was no match SS. Even if by some miracle RCTG gets 1:12 for 6f. I can't see what scenario would enable him to get by the mile pole in anything less than 1:35. Good luck trying, I know that the jockey is good at (1) thing - going wire to wire.

fabs,

See my prior posts on 100+ Beyers. 14 of the last 16. 12 in their most recent, 13 did it twice, all did it at 3... etc.

Slot,

Agree on the synth Beyers. Same reason you can't trust turf Beyers. The number takes into calculation margins of victory and final times. Both are directly related to early pace. Speed spreads horses out, the faster the early pace, generally the faster the final time. No one wanted to show speed out at SA and early pace tended to be a gallop. Horses bunched up and sprinted home. Hard to run a fast time after going 1:14 for 6. Likewise it's tough to win off if everyone closes in 11 4/5ths.

Mike, Cd,
I know Cd's a value player, but he's also a trip handicapper. What do you guys think of Angelouie at Keeneland tomorrow on the turf?

Fabs, Giacomo had never run a 100 beyer prior to the kentucky derby

derbyme,

I do think the race sets up nicely for Angelouie. As you know, I am not fond of playing a horse at 5/2, let alone in a turf race, let alone at Keeneland. May be the most likely winner though.

I would take a long hard look at Warn. This horse has been running well on turf this year and keeping good company with Daytona and Jazz Quest. However, he has not run particularly well over this track when it is yielding. In his last he lost to 2 rivals in this field, but there was no pace to run at. Although I am not familiar with the trainer, it will be the 2nd off the claim. I will be playing Warn if the turf course is firm.

Giacomo always looked like a mile and a quarter would be his best distance and it was.

Folks, Don't forget last year, the combination of Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin paid $220.00 for a $1.00 tri. Add Imawildandcrazyguy and the super for a dollar paid over $18,000.00. I had three tri's but no super because I didn't, as most people, think IAWCG would be any better than 15-20. Going a mile and a quarter the first time can lead to havoc not only for the horses, but us players as well. Good Luck