Spotting The Wiseguy Horse

I keep saying Asmussen is being sneaky about Z Fortune. Everyone worrying and wondering what Pyro is going to do. Notice how Asmussen hasnt been giving a whole lot of talk or insight on Z Fortune? Reminds me of 10 years ago w/ Baffert and his two: Indian Charlie & Real Quiet. Most thought Indian Charlie was his best shot at winning that Derby, then along comes Real Quiet on Derby Day

I think this year's "wiseguy" horse will be Adriano. You can already see it happening with the chatter after Prado picked to ride him over others. Although he was 4.80-1 in the Lanes End in his last, he was nearly 15-1 in the Fountain of Youth where he ran like a real beauty. Have at him. Auto toss for me

My Wiseguy horse would have to be Adriano, underrated but great trainer in Motion, Prado chose to ride him instead of a couple of other grade 1 winners, 4f workouts in :50 being declared as great moves. I hope the wiseguys keep getting louder on this one as he has proven to be a top notch grass/synthetic horse who flopped on the dirt (of course there were reasons) but I can't dismiss the fact he does not like the dirt

great minds think alike jharvat

agreed. Adriano.

Smooth Air is more of a disrespected horse. Yes, everyone talks about him that is true. But nobody puts their money where their mouth is. Thanks to these people, I got him at 193-1 in pool 2!

In pool 3 he ended at 30-1, which is by no means an underlay or a "value" play. Personally, I don't think he will get the distance, but I hope he does so I can cash a big one!

Okay JD, I know you are a little partial to Smooth Air, Didn't you play a smoove $100 on the nose. at what odds? Don't jinx yourself out of the money.

Let another colt inherit the "The Wiseguy" position. Here is the replacement colt with better qualification then Smooth Air: Bob Black Jack.

This colts will actually control the pace in the Derby and determine the running placement for many of the colts during the race.

Like Gayego will have to stalk the colt early in the number two position down the back stretch. Granted Smooth Air has speed, but not the kind which can keep pace with several speedsters flying up front. Fades early from the pressure!

BBJ has no choice but to set an extremely fast pace and he intends to burn many of the colts at least till the 1 1/8 pole. They will turn him lose on the front end. So I view him as "The Poker Player" which is always a wiseguy when holding all the cards.

blythte,
Couldnt have said it better myself! He will be the wiseguy horse of this Derby. Justin is right, there is one every year. I remember a couple years I was on a horse named AP Warrior. Then out came the wiseguys and he ended up getting that wiseguy label. Horse was terrible anyway, but I learned a lesson to stay clear of the wiseguy horse. One of the worst Derby picks I have ever made in my life. What an embarrassment. I cant believe I am actually admitting it. Dark times.

Folks, I'm not sure Adriano is "Wiseguy eligible". He won the Lane's End in impressive fashion, and is getting respect as a solid grass/synthetic horse. Prado chose to ride him over others. I like Adriano, but I just don't think the label "Wiseguy" applies. He's just one tick too high on the depth chart, if you know what I mean.

But then again, I see where you are coming from.

Justin,

Are you (and most of your fellow bloggers) just completely ignoring the ladies this year. You haven't posted on the Oaks in months. Give us readers some opinions on the Oaks, too!!!

As for a Derby 'wiseguy' horse, I think Court Vision certainly qualifies after his latest CD work. "He loves the track.......blinkers on is exactly what he needed.....won here last year.........great mile and a quarter pedigree...etc". Problem number one is he has not yet run anywhere close to fast enough as a three-year old to win the Derby. Problem number 2: I am starting to believe some of this and feel he might just be capable of improvement and have a shot at this thing.

Dale

I think Adriano qualifies
No respect after winning the G2 Lanes End, even the connections didn't think they would go to the derby, he was not among the top contenders all year, worked well at Churchill (thats why Prado chose him), his odds will be in the 15-20 to 1 range, although they should be much higher based on his body of work. The sneak horse for me is either Z Fortune or perhaps Visionaire who ran a deceptively good race in the Bluegrass (disliked the surface but ran on and tried unlike Pyro).

Dale,

The Oaks is a more difficult race on which to comment since not all top three-year-old filles point for it. Come next week, when I am in Louisville and I get a better idea of who is entering, I will post more often.

Justin,

Here's an interesting story about Edgar Prado's decision to ride Adriano.

http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=682954&category=SPORT...

Prado made the decision before Monba won the Bluegrass and Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial.

I love Adriano's pedigree but with Edgar Prado's take on the decision to ride him and the fact that the connections are bringing Adriano to the Kentucky Derby almost as an afterthought makes me very suspicious of his chances.

I think that in this Derby field there could be several wiseguy horses.

To bad Adriano is a bouncer and hes on the bounce to lose check the form yourself...Hes nothing more than a polytrack specialist...

I think while the odds won't be above 10/1 - Colonel John - has to be the wise guy in this field. Unproven on dirt - but has the breeding to handle it. This is the kind of stuff that the "Infield Crowd" and the people standing in line to get their Mint Julips will be talking about.

Come on man...Colonel John is going to be the 1st or 2nd choice in the derby. Not even close to qualifying for "the wise guy horse".

Justin,

I'm going to quibble just a bit with your definition of wiseguy horse. I agree that the wiseguy horse finishes up the track and is an automatic toss (if you can identify him), and that they come in with a certain measure of accomplishment and garner undue attention from the racing "cognoscenti". But they get bet pretty well, even approaching favoritism on occasion. I can't classify a post time 20-1 shot as a wiseguy horse. They also go on to have a rather undistinguished racing career after the Derby.

Think BullInTheHeather, Noble Causeway, Tapit, Ten Most Wanted, Saarland, Sweetnorthernsaint.

So who is it this year? I'll go with Gayego.

beebs4201,
Last year the 2nd choice in the Derby was 5/1(Curlin) and the 3rd was 7/1(Scat Daddy). People in Kentucky will be more loyal to horses that have run on dirt, and specifically against the West coast horses. If everyone is right about BB being around 2 - 5/2. You can bet you'll see odd on the Colonel floating up to above 7/1 - EASY.

hossgnat,

Notice I said that in order to be a Wiseguy Horse, the EXPECTED odds should be greater than 15-1. Now, in the case of Smooth Air, he was approaching 200-1 in one of the future pools. And if we get a full field of 20 horses, I think he could be classified as the Wiseguy Horse at odds of 20-1. Wasn't Noble Causeway around 14-1? Was Saarland under 20-1? I can't remmeber. Would you count Tapit as the Wiseguy choice? Sweetnorthernsaint? Ten Most Wanted? I would consider them among the favorites. All three won major Derby preps in thier final starts.

Heres how I remember the past 5 years "wiseguy" horses. I dont remember all of their odds, but I remember alot of unjustified hype for them in the 2 weeks leading up to the Derby. And I remember all of them running in the gutter. I added 2008's entry.

2003- Buddy Gil
2004- Master David
2005- Noble Causeway, Sun King
2006- AP Warrior, Bob & John
2007- Zanjero
2008- Adriano

justin,

I always considered "Wiseguy" horses to be those contenders which so called experts pick in an attempt to show how smart they are by picking against the obvious favorites. Their perceived quallity often goes beyond their running lines. Rock Hard Ten was one who never made the field, but those "in the know" loved him. Dynever, Ten Most Wanted, Tapit, all had solid lines but were made "favorites" because of their wiseguy status. Street Sense was a wiseguy horse for the Juvi a couple years ago based on works, connections, and inside info. Which is really what makes a wiseguy horse, the feeling that you can spot something about the horses chances that those outside the loop or just looking at PP's couldn't see.

This year: Adriano should be 25-1, he'll be bet down by wiseguy money to 14-1. I feel like Monba and DOC have been wiseguy horses since the day they stepped on the track, and both will probably be bet more than they should.

Cd,
Agree with you on Smooth Air. He can't be a wiseguy horse cuz not one person I know has picked him to win.

Derbyme,

Check out www.DerbyTrail.com. Steve Byk is warming up to him.

Justin,

I guess that's where we differ since I think the Wiseguy horse can be among the more heavily bet contenders, but not necessarily so of course. Whatever the case, he is way overbet and turns in a clunker. Sad to say I've been suckered in on a few of these over the years.

A bit discouraged to see so many Adriano mentions here, since I like him to run in the money.

i think its adriano like most say but i think its also recapturetheglory cause nobody knew about him in until the illnois derby and he is going to be a big price similar to war emblem but i believe he can rate. i like adriano, court vision, zfortune, bob black jack and cool coal man but to win i think its adriano or court vision. possibly i can see bob black jack winning cause hes by a son of bertrando buthes more likly sprinting. any way wise guy most likly adriano.

Justin,

I gotta say I agree with Hossgnat on your definition of the wise-guy horse. There's a really good New York Times article somewhere from 2006 that talks about the term. It basically says that no one knows what it means (which makes us justified in disagreeing). At that time, it was calling Sweetnorthernsaint the WGH. I tend to agree. I'd say the wise-guy horse is generally going to be the horse that draws the "smart money" most of the time at the risk of losing to more obvious contenders. I remember Randy Moss calling SNS the WGH before the 06 Derby and thinking I had figured something out because I'd bet him. (I hadn't.) I think the WGH this year is currently unidentifiable. If we knew who the WGH was at this point, he wouldn't remain the WGH. I think it'll be at least Friday evening before he's identified. I agree with you though, he'll be overbet and not likely to win.

Whether Adriano is a wiseguy horse or not, I will likely not bet him to win because A) He hasn't been all that consistent and B) He hasn't raced since the Lane's End. Yes, I'm one of those people that thinks it takes an especially talented horse to win off of five or six weeks rest. Adriano does not strike me as that kind of horse, but perhaps I'm wrong.

afarrar,

I see what you are saying. But remember, Sweetnorthernsaint was the favorite. In my opinion, that disqualifies him from being the Wiseguy Horse. I guess I equate the term "wiseguy" to mean "one who thinks he is smarter than everyone else." In other words, it almost has to be a non-favorite by definition.

But like you said, no one really knows exactly what it means.

I think WGH is relative to the amount wagered on him compared to his his form, past performances, regardless of the choice in the given race. Sweetnorthernsaint was most definitely, even though he was the chalk. Deputy Glitters was the perfect example, high odds, people winking in the booth. It's Gonzaga in the NCAA tournament, and Duke. Glitters half sucked, and experts were all over him. I think this years it's definitely Adriano, whose high beyer on dirt is a 70, and overall high is a 92. Putting him in the top 3 is asking for a move forward that has never happened.

McMitch,
Well said - I know I have to toss Adriano when a co-worker says he has to bet him because his sons name is Adrian. Thank goodness there's no horse with a name likeness of Aaron, I might have been in the same boat. The closest thing to him is Monba, the dang little kid does have rythym. OH NO - now I have to play Monba.

Just looks at the picks to the right on this page Adriano is 5th, 10th, 8th, 3rd, 4th and 6th. I wouldn't even put him in the top 12, so if the WGH is easy to identify its him, but if Tale of Ekati works strong at Churchill it could be him also since he was disrespected after winning the Wood in 152 and change.

To me the Wiseguy horse is the value horse that a lot of smart peope say "should improve" but never do in the Derby. So Justin (Mr Value better), to find the Wiseguy horse just listen to what comes out of you mouth when you are at the betting window.

Love the Derby talk, but don't get lost in all the talk and remember to find the Derby winner:

1. Eliminate front-runners.
2. Eliminate deep closers.
3. Seriously consider eliminating the favorite.
4. Same with what's too lightly raced.
5. Highlight stalkers.
6. Seek improvers from among those.

WGH---any horse whose morning line odds drop at least 50% right brfore post time

Blythe,

You're right. It's DEFINATELY Adriano. Mac McBride, who I respect a lot, loves him as do a lot of experts. I see him getting a lot of play and finishing between 15th and 20th. I love how the 5 in 1:01.80 and 4 in 50 were labeled great works. Also watch his action in the FOY. He was hopping like he hated what was under his feet when he was asked for a run. I don't think he has any hope. TOE could definately get some play with a good work. I'll be using him in my exotics.

Justin

I see what you're saying on Sweetnorthernsaint.

I think Smooth Air is becoming (or has become) the PH (the peoples horse), I bet there were a lot of $2 bettors that wagered on him in the first 2 pools of the Future Wager who are rooting for him, couple that with the fact he is a little horse and the rest of his back story angles with his owners, trainer and his old school training methods and you have the makings of the PH. Wiseguys don't bet the PH, he is reserved for the infield people, the $2 bettor, the tug on your heartstrings story that my wife gets hooked on. The PH in other years has been Afleet Alex with the lemonade stands, last year it may have been Tueflesberg

The PH this year should be Recapture-with a shrimp fry

Blythe,
Again you hit the spot. I give this horse a decent shot if a few big guns don't fire. Even if they do he could hit the exotics. Does that make me not a "wiseguy"?

Think Court Vision will be the WGH. Don't think he has run a Beyer over 90 yet. But he closed some in the FOY and then closed even better in the Wood. Now I'm hearing quite a bit about his good 2 year old run over the CD track and the recent bullet with blinkers at CD. I still don't think he can win. He'd have to all of a sudden make a leap of at least 15+ Beyer points in the toughest race of his life. Just don't see it for the win. Not sure if he can pass enough of them to get ITM. But I do think he'll be bet down from his M/L odds.

I agree with blythte about Smooth Air being the People's Horse. He has a "Seabiscuit" feel to him. I think people are spot on with Adriano being the possible wise-guy horse, but according to Justin's criteria, I think the perfect fit is Court Vision. There's been every reason in the world to write this horse off, but a few "people who know things" keep giving him excuses. And the more they talk, the more I buy it. He has the connections (Mott and Gomez) people love, especially Kentucky gamblers. He seems to love the CD track. He has had a great work and added blinkers. I see Battaglia opening him up close to 20-1 or so and being bet down to the low teens (say 13-1?).

Barbarazitariat,

The thing about Court Vision is that he was a top contender this winter. He reminds me of Bluegrass Cat for a lot of reasons. I think he's a Sneak Horse, not the Wiseguy Horse.

Although I'll toss him, Cool Coal Man is a good example of a sneak horse also, if he runs 2nd or 3rd people will say yep, won at CD, won 4 of 5 at a distance on dirt, obviously didn't care for synthetic, Zito and Leperoux know what they are doing, yep that horse was staring me in the face and I still didn't bet him in the exotics, doh!!!

I am MUCH better at picking greyhounds than horses; however, I have attempted to learn a few lessons from the things that I've had happen to me betting the Derby over the last dozen-plus years (hooked since watching Thunder Gulch). This year I keep thinking about how last year I dismissed a horse (Hard Spun) who like Adriano won the Lane's End, whose trainer waivered for quite some time on whether he could do well in the Derby, and ran him after a long layoff. I also remember an AWESOME horse, who dominated before and after the Derby (Skip Away) who just hated the Churchhill surface. Is that Big Brown this year? I know one thing - I have won a lot more money in my life eliminating heavy favorites than picking big longshots. And NEVER underestimate the importance of how you wager. A great handicapper who is a poor bettor will do much worse than an average handicapper who is a great bettor. By the way, with recent success of favorites, it appears many of us have forgotten the long-standing curse that heavy favorites have suffered from throughout most of the Derby's history. Isn't anyone else concerned that Big Brown will have no training over the surface? Good luck to all, and thanks for all the insight. I know how to wager - if you all provide a dose of insight, I know I will have a successful Derby. Speaking of that, Potato, thanks for the tip on that horse Saturday (I think Millenium Jet?) I put $10 on him to win (15-1)and put him second and third in the tri with heavy favorite on top and all. As you know, the tri paid $42 on the bottom, clearing me $20 with a heavy favorite winning and the second choice coming in second (the exacta was only like $7) And you knew your stuff about the jock who came off him - that guy cleaned up on the day and I have no doubt Millenium jet would have won with him on board, although the odds would have probably been closer to 9-1. And I believe all the Tomcito supporters also owe you a tip of the cap....

ADRIANO is definitely NOT the wiseguy horse. Why? Because you guys have already picked him as the "wiseguy" horse so now the "wise guys" cannot pick him. The "wiseguy" horse is always a "contrarian" pick. It is always the one that the public says "can't win" but the "wiseguys" know better and are able to envision a sceanario where some 52-1 or 72-1 longshot comes charging down the stretch and wins the derby at the wire after the pace breaks down and the front end falls apart. That never happens, right? The "wiseguys" are not the "Wiseguys." True "Wiseguys" are horseplayers who had the GIACOMO (52-1) x CLOSING ARGUMENT (72-1) exacta in a Derby no so long ago. Do you guys know anybody who had that...hmmmm...

So who is the "wiseguy" horse? It is the horse, outside the chalk - PYRO, COLONEL JOHN, or BIG BROWN - that we bloggers pick as having a "real chance" of beating these chalk horses! So stayed tuned! We will pick the "wiseguy" horse right here one week from tonight!

To all,
I am just going to throw this out there about Court Vision. 1. Best jock in race, Garrett Gomez, who is due. 2. 3rd start off a layoff which for some reason I always hear handicappers saying is a good thing to look at. 3. His last races. First start off a layoff, respectable third to two horses who already had a win at the track/distance, and was a speed favoring surface. Second start off a layoff was over 14 lengths out at the 1/2 mile pole and closed to lose by less than 2 lengths. YA YA YA, it was SLOW, but older horses ran the same distance the same day in 1:51 with a wire to wire horse who was like 15/1. The thing that impresses me the most about this race is the way Aqueduct has been favoring speed horses. I think they are winning at over 70%, it's rediculous, sprints or routes, unless they go suicidal up top they are going wire to wire. He has a churchill foundation, good pedigree, so you better put him in your exacta's, tris and supers because he will be smokin late. Dont think he can win but may just be the wise guy or whatever you want to call him.

How about Bob Black Jack, he's shown improvement and with war pass out can't he be the wgh?

Bob Black jack is as good a candidate as any and he fits Justin's criteria perfectly. All he has to do now is work well at Churchill.

Hi all. I'm certainly not new to the wagering arena, but my betting results illustrate that I'm pretty much right off the boat. "This time" I decided I'd to dig a bit deeper and solicit the knowledge from folks in the know. (Thus...here I am) I'm very much enjoying most of your comments and I AM actually learning alot. BETTERATDOGS had a great remark regarding the artform of "great betting" -vs- "great handicapping". Any comments regarding his thoughts from others?

betteratdogs,

I appreciate the kind words. I was actually hoping he (Millenium Jet) would run better than he did, but I thought he performed well after jumping up in class.

I also agree 100% with you on..."A great handicapper who is a poor bettor will do much worse than an average handicapper who is a great bettor." When I first got into horse racing I lost everytime I went to the track. After a while, I began to pick winners but I was still consistently losing money. I have greatly improved my betting strategies over the years and I am finally making some dough. One more thing, the more and more you go to the track the better you become at both handicapping and betting. I think I learn something new everytime I go. And you learn the most from the races you lose. Instead, of flipping to the next race, study the PPs after the race and find out why you missed the winner.

Betteratdogs, Great advise.
That's exactly what I've been doing. I hang with a lot of "experts" at a local OTB spot and have found that the guys who "actually" make money at this gig study, study, study. (Past performances, videos, etc.) They pace their betting and seem to be able to find that winning longshot who is staring them right in the face. They always seem to be the ones who just smile and lean way forward at the window with the "pen" hand moving on the counter. Humm???! I guess this is just a dues paying process and one better KNOW what they are doing. This is why I found your comment to be so logical. I'll proceed slowly!

Thursday at Keenland, Race 6 #8, Paris Winds. Mott, Kent D., horse should be decent odds.

Ryan, glad to see someone has Bob Black Jack as the wise guy horse.

To me he is the only wise guy horse in the field. Pace factor, on the improve and intends to make them pay early.

BBJ is the poker player with dark glasses on.

With the injury to War Pass, he inherits the pace and will control the race.

He might be good enough to steal the race on the current improvement curve.

Way above the 20-1 projected odds, running on the front end. What a shocker if he wins!

Sooner or later "the wiseguy" horse has to win. I will drop $50.00 on the nose to cover my rear. and top and bottom the field.

Betteratdogs,

Nice advice on the difference between good betters and good handicappers. It is all in how you spread it out at the window. I used to be much better at wagering on greyhounds but now its about 50-50. I trained greyhounds, including a Distance Classic Champion at Derby Lane (St Pete, FL), which used to be called the Saratoga of Dog Tracks. I worked at Derby Lane for several years while I went through college, and was a handler, patrol judge and a finish line judge (known as a steward in horse racing).

I saw just about every All American greyhound racing at Derby Lane that you could name since 2000. The two best were probably Cayman Went and Talentedmrripley.
There is one there now named Flying Stanley who is very good, and Dominator was the dog in the early 2000s. Handicapping the horses is slightly different from the dogs.
Since bumping and pinching back is legal in greyhound racing, a good greyhound hadicapper must anticipate the speed to the first turn, as the leader at the 1/8th pole (just after the 1st turn at a greyhound track) finishes in the money 80 percent of the time. Although Derby Lane was a closer's track. As you probably know, in horseracing its all about pace, fractions and controlling the pace. Pace does make the race in horse racing. In greyhound racing, its all about a clean trip or the ability to recover and close.

About Big Brown, he will be training next Wednesday at Churchill Downs, he will probably have a blowout breeze but it could be more. In any event, he will be working once on the CD surface and jogging on it 3 more times. Thursday AM is Big Brown's last big workout at PM in South Florida. He leaves for CD next Tuesday, according to Dutrow now at DowneyProfile.com. Dutrow revised his schedule on Monday.

Justin, I always thought a wiseguy horse was one that takes alot of money away from the favorite and goes off much lower than his M/L odds. Usually due to information that only a wise-guy would have. To me, unless Smooth Air picks up substantial support in the next week from handicappers, SA is a sleeper, not a wiseguy horse. A sleeper is one flying in under everyone's radar, but has the ability to win or do well. By definition, a wise-guy horse is where the "smart" money is, regardless of what his M/L odds are. However, a sleeper can never be a wiseguy horse, because wise guy horses are anything but under the radar. For instance, Colonel John is the "wise guy pick" favorite over Big Brown right now. Nearly every handicapper and turf writer I have read is picking Colonel John to win the derby, or he is 1 on their lists. Hence, CJ is a wiseguy FAVORITE. BTW, one of my old MBA textbooks has a whole section on wagering and the stock market. Wise guy pick is defined as any horse or pick made by those "in the know", typically made off of insider informatin. Its where the "smart money" is on any wager or investment. Whether the horse or investment pans out is irrelevant. And Col John is not a wise guy horse, way to much public support. He is, however, a "wise guy favorite" to win the Derby. Big Brown is not. The wise guys have already begun to take a stand against him.

I think as of now Court Vision is a good wise guy horse. The blinkers, the time of his last works, and the ultimate wise guy sucker-bet, he comes late. Almost all wiseguy horses are closers or deep stalkers. They are always coming, still coming, and they never quite finish as hyped. Last year's 2 wise guys were Circular Quay and Zenjero.
I can still remember an excited Jessica Pacheco going on and on about Zenjero in 2007.

In fact, anything Pletcher that is not favored is usually bet down to wiseguy status.

Last year's sneak horse was Hard Spun. Last year's overhyped horse, as you know, was Slowbiz. HS dominated every race his had leading to the Derby except the Southwest. A trained eye could tell he would be dangerous relaxing on the lead, as he won going away at 8 and 9 furlongs. Yet he was a steal at 15-1 M/L odds, and was pure VALUE at 10-1 at post time. Yet, the wise-guys hated HS, hated his blazing 5 furlong works, and were looking for any reason the toss the horse. In retrospect, he was clearly one of the top 3 year olds last year, and the fastest and most versatile.

But then again, the wise guys aren't interested in hitting a wager, they just want to show everyone how brilliant and sophisticated they are. They go hungry sometimes.

Slowbiz, as it turned out, was waiting to unleash that potential on turf. So, he kind of redeemed you after last year's Derby, but NoBiz was not close to the dirt-poly horse that Hard Spun was.

Rock n Roll,

I know you are working from statistics, but lets apply your 6 rules to last year's Derby:

1. Eliminate front runners- speed horses (eliminate, among others, Hard Spun)
2. Eliminate deep closers- (out of clouds)- (eliminate, among others, Street Sense)
3. Seriously consider eliminating the favorite (eliminate Curlin & SS; M/L & p.t. favs)
4. Eliminate lightly raced horses (eliminate, among others, stalker Curlin)
5. Highlight stalkers (Scat Daddy, Slowbiz, Any Given Sat, Zenjero, Cowtown Cat, Sam P)
6. Look for improvement in no.5 (since Curlin was eliminated, only Cowtown Cat and Scat Daddy showed improvement going into Derby. AGS came in off a 3rd in the Woods.

Congrats! Your rules have eliminated the top 3 finishers in last year's Derby:
Street Sense (a deep closer), Hard Spun (speed horse, frontrunner), Curlin (lightly raced and M/L favorite). If you factor in that the 4th place horse, Imawildandcrazyguy (who was a deep closer), these rules just emiminated the entire Superfecta.

The danger of applying these rules when there is a speed horse with stamina in the race is that the speed horse spreads the field out and the stalkers typically are too close, like Scat Daddy or Cowtown, or jammed back because the race starts so swiftly (like Curlin or Sam P). And of course the other speed is run off of their feet and to the back of the pack while the leader begins to pull away from the field at the top of the stretch. That is what happened last year. If you anticipate a strong speed horse that could last 10 panels, toss the stalkers and bet that speed with 1 or 2 very sharp closers. They will be the only ones with anything in the tank to make a SS like run, which, in retrospect, was as mych luck as it was talent.

Liquidity stays on the rail and HS is last year's Derby champ by multiple lengths.

Justin,

I think I know where you're coming from now (nudge, nudge; wink, wink). I'm trying to do this whole reverse jinx thing on Court Vision too because I think this is the "Sneak Horse" that can get up and get a piece of the purse. But he scares me to death. There's no telling what form he'll run to. So in my warped mind I believe that if I play him off as the "Wiseguy" horse, maybe that will reverse his luck and he'll be a "Sneak Horse" just out of spite to me. You see, a reverse jinx. By the way, I'm also a Cubs fan.

Geronimo2123,

Someone posted a comment earlier that suggested the Wiseguy Horse was the one where the smart money was going. I understand the logic, but I still think horses like that are in their own category. Another way of defining "Wiseguy Horse" MIGHT be to call him "the longshot/mid-range longshot that many people are talking about."

It is starting to look like there is more than one acceptable definition for "Wiseguy Horse".

One horse that seems to be be overlooked and is not getting a lot of talk is Visionaire. He really hasn't run a bad race - including the Bluegrass. He was the only one gaining in the end - on a surface that is new to him as it was to others. His 5th place finish may be a turn-off to some or most, but the savvy handicappers may put a line through that race and forgive him since horses either love or hate that track.

Court Vision all the way!

Justin,

Definitions aside, I do kinda like your logic on Smooth Air for several reasons. The most obvious is that he has been moving forward (even as the distances are increasing). While SA is probably a miler by pedigree, Stutts is really old schooling it with SA, literally building a bottom into SA the way greyhound trainers used build stamina in certain speed dogs that used to fade at the wire. And I think it has some merit. All of those 7f and mile runs are opening those lungs and exercising that heart and conditioning the colt. SA also ran a pretty nice Florida Derby.

Another reason is where SA is from: Calder. That track had some of the top 2 year olds in the country there last year. Smooth Air ran against them all (including Wise Answer, who beat Hey Byrn, He'z Eze and practically every other horse from 6 to 8.5 furlongs.
Either WA was mismanaged or he peaked at age 2 1/2, but for whatever reason, Smooth Air has kept moving forward). He has tactical speed (which is in premium demand on Derby Day), and he seems to have alot of heart. Finally, forget about those come home times at Gulfstream Park. All horses struggle home on that track. Look at Samba Rooster, a tired 3rd trying to wire the field at GP, yet increases distance and almost wires the Lexington Stakes field off of fast fractions. BTW, I knew that about GP and wagered on SR winning or hitting the board. He certainly delivered and came close to winning. Some one else here has posted about the tiring surface at GP, forget who...

In any event, I think a few will pick up his value, and he could run big May 3rd.

To me the wiseguy horse is the one that has really never won anything or if he did it was a long time ago, but they are always "bred to get the distance" and always closing yet missing in their preps. When the Derby brings the country together they go from being 3rd best in their region to 10th or worse best in the country. That said here are my wiseguy horses since 2002 with a little bit of stats:

2002 -- Saarland (6.90-1, co-2nd choice). His best win was a Grade 2 as a 2 year old. He ran 10th.

2003 -- Atswhatimtalkinabout (8.90-1, 5th choice). His best win was a N1X. He finished 4th.

2004 -- Borrego (14.20-1, 7th choice). I was guilty here. His best win was an OClm. He finished 10th.

2005 -- Noble Causeway (12.30-1, 4th choice). His best win was a N1X. He finished 14th.

2006 -- Point Determined (9.40-1, 4th choice). His best win was an OClm. He finished 9th.

2007 -- Couldn't really find one here but went with Zanjero not so much for the win, but everyone I knew had to use him in the tri (36-1, 14th choice). His best win was a N1X. He finished 12th.

2008 -- Court Vision (<15-1, 5th-7th choice). He won a Grade 2 at 2, but has shown very little at 3 and he will be mightily overbet off of that bullet work. The only horse to win the derby since 2002 without a competitive Beyer figure at 3 was Giacomo and you got 50-1 on him. I could make an argument for Z Fortune too, but he at least put up a decent number in his last.

Barbeach/derbyme,

Let's make a nice P3 ticket out of this. In Keeneland's 4th we will use derbyme's 10 (Angelouie) and my 8 (Warn). In the 5th I like the 2 (Podgy) and I will include the 5 (Forgotten Pace) and the 8 (Sir Hillary). In the 6th we will use Barbeach's 8 (Paris Wind) and I will include the 6 (Italian Girl).

That's Keeneland Race 4:

$1 P3 8, 10 / 2, 5, 8 / 6, 8

a $12 bet

Let's see what happens! I like this idea and I think we should work together more often.

Well, looks like I may be having trouble picking a winner today. I will stop while I'm behind.

Speaking of Keeneland though, did anyone see the Race 3 MSW? Mr Mistoffelees won by 9 1/4 in a hand ride in his debut. He is a $1.5 M purchase, Pletcher trained, Johnny V ridden.

Pletcher's first derby winner? Remember you heard it here first...

The potato says Mr Mistoffelees to win Kentucky Derby 135!

Cdpotato,
You can't quit. I tried to give one to you. Mott had entered this horse so many times and I had tried to play but he scratched her every time. Then when she goes today I can't get out of work to play her. Looks like the Pick 3, super, tri and exacta were all healthy. I was afraid she wasn't going to get up the rail but got home. Just trying to help everyone out out there. keep pluggin away potato.

Didn't catch the Pletcher horse but will definately be watching the replay tonight.

barbeach,

Forgot about Paris Winds. Saw her win nicely at GP. She was 3/5. Won with trouble at 5/2, nice call. I, like Potato had packed it in after Angelouie failed to fire and got beat by the longest shot on the board at even money. Looked like something went amiss with him. Not surprising after his rough return. Anyway, I've never won much at Keeneland.

barbeach,

Great pick on Paris Winds. She should be 3 for 3 in the US but she had a brutal trip in her US debut at Gulfstream and lossed by about a half length. Look for her next out to be a stake somewhere like Belmont or Saratoga

jgabbo That a great anaylsis of the wiseguy per year. How do you rate Dennis of Cork! Seems to fit your list

I'm gonna take this one step further.. Thunder Gulch and the otherwise guys had one thing in common, they all finished at least 4th in their final prep.. So, with that being said here's my opinion..

1. Bob Black Jack

2. Smooth Air (I still think he'll be over 15-1)

3. Monba (something about Pletcher and his non chalks in the derby hitting the board)

4. Z-furtune

5. Gayega

6. Recapturetheglory

7. Court Vision (might be under 15-1 will be bet huge in tri's for place and show)

8. Tale of Akati

Sure did narrow it down didn't I.

In all very very tough race. Colonel John no 3 digit byers (no thank you) also has Santa Anita Derby Winner jinx going against him, Pyro 10th in Blue Grass (no thank you), Big Brown lack of experience (no thank you).

To all you handicapper they pretty much follow the Derby Rules, there's only a few route horse you can really play based on history...

1. Smooth Air
2. Gayego
3. Z-Fortune
4. Adriano
5. Recapturetheglory( but I don't think he'll do squat)
6. Tale of Ekati

Just my 2 cents

Don't believe Smooth Air will get the distance, though I wouldn't mind if he did as I have a solid $4 on him at 193-1.

my wiseguy horse
Is not the horse, but the jockey that has won a Derby and has doesn't have a top rated horse. If you look back over the years you will find that is true.

This just in...Smooth Air has spiked a fever and could miss the Derby. They are saying he has a slight infection. Although his temperature has currently returned to normal.

Harlem Rocker was very impressive in the Withers. He looks like he could relish 1 3/16!

CD,

Bernardini faced 3 in the Withers, as did Harlem Rocker. Bernardini went off as the 9/5 2nd choice behind a lone speed 3/5 Luxemberg. Harlem Rocker was 2nd choice at 2-1 behind a lone speed 3/5 J Be K. Both negotiated nice stalking trips, both powered home impressively in the stretch. Harlem Rocker got the mile in 1:34 and change, Bernardini in 1:35 1/5. Both have solid distance pedigrees. Harlem Rocker is very very interesting...

fabs, nice call on Macho Again. KK shows that you can rebound on dirt, but only so far. Based on his coming up a bit short off his dull Keeneland effort, Pyro better start cranking it up if he is to have any shot at 10f.

I think Monba is the "wiseguy" horse this year. He should meet most of the requirements except the bullet work credential...People love his win over the track, and that is likely relied upon a little heavily when people evaluate Monba's chances. He definitely has a reassuring pedigree and a disregarded win in the BlueGrass, and people like Pletcher a lot so that may be reassuring to some as well.

Pat,

Under different circumstances I think Monba could merit some consideration. However, he has yet to win on conventional dirt and Prado jumps off to ride Adriano. I know he was hurt in the FOY, but the facts aren't so appealing. I have to agree with Justin on Smooth Air. While I wasn't a fan of his before the Florida Derby, he definitely had me second guessing afterward. Looks like he could hit the board at huge odds next Saturday (as long as he's healthy and entered to run).

yeah I agree I'm not endorsing Monba at all, I just think that people will like hime the more they look and decide that every one of the horses has flaws and you have to forgive some of them. I hope Smooth Air makes the race, he is a good story and deserves to be there. I do like the fact that Smooth Air has shown he can start his run on the turn and finish strong, instead of being one who doesn't get started until maybe its too late.

Although it's too early to make final race predictions without knowing the post positions of any horses, or the final starters, here is my take on a couple of horses I would consider as "wise guy plays". I will add to my list during future posts.

1. Court Vision: (off the pace)
Over my lifetime of handicapping horses, there is one thing I know, "there are horses for courses". A prudent handicapper only has to view his performance in the Iroquois (GIII) at Churchill to see this horses affection for this course. Throw in a solid workout drill of 46.2b over the surface on 4/17 and this horse looks like a totally different animal off his dull Wood Memorial performance. He seems to be coming into this race in great shape as his last start in the Wood was hardly "over the top".This horse looks like a different animal on this surface. Throw in a hot jockey with Garrett Gomez,a hall of fame trainer who flourishes at CD. A bloodline that has produced a derby winner, and you have the makings of a horse who could do some damage.

2.Z Fortune: (stalker)
This horse has done nothing wrong in his lifetime of racing. His sire Siphon possesses strong front end staying speed. This horse has had terrible racing luck and has not been given the best of trips over his lifetime of starts. His last race in the Arkansas Derby was the race I liked. He was hung wide the whole race and still managed a strong stretch kick just missing out on the win. Also has a nice Dossage Index of 1.67 which fits the derby profile. Has a sharp trainer in Steve Asmussen and just may love the Chuchill surface.

smallpaul,

I also like Court Vision, but he has failed to impress me. I was hoping the Wood was going to be his breakout race, but he came up flat. So, I don't know what to think at this point. Honestly, I have never been a fan of Z Fortune, but agree his pedigree and appearance are impressive. ZF will probably be one of the top 6-8 betting choices in the race, since Albarado is aboard and Asmussen the trainer. From a gambling standpoint, this race is shaping up to be a great one, as a case can be made for about 6-8 different horses. Hopefully, track presence and appearance (Derby week) will allow everyone to weed out a few horses.

One last thing before logging out for the night. I have used these stats for years in the handicapping of the derby. Hope this is helpfull to others.

28 of the last 29 winners of the derby have had a win at a mile or longer as a 2 year old.

11 of the last 12 winners have had a final last furlong time of 13 seconds or less in their final prep race.

24 of 31 winners have had a stakes win as a 3 yr old

Only 3 of the last 74 winners have had less than 3 starts as a 3 year old, and have had less than 6 career starts. (Just in case someone here may like Big Brown)

Have had lot's of success over the years handicapping the derby, I use complex system of elimination when narrowing down the field but this is usually the way I start out. Cant wait for the PP draw and the form to come out. Have the highlighter pens ready in 3 different colours. My racing form will look like a rainbow by derby day. Just love this stuff.

Cp Halem Rocker heads to Canada. 1 million is the goal in the Queen Plate.

Smooth Air is sick and unable to workout for several days. Probably will withdraw. The trainer should not run if the horse is not 100%. Dennis of Cork should make the entry. (real Dark Horse) trains at Churchill Down as his home base all winter long.

If Bob Black Jack doesn't make entry. As hot as Pletcher is right now! I can see the same tactics in the Bluegrass. Sending the Cowboy and letting Monba track the speed.

I never really like horsemanship when trainers send a speed ball to soften up the favorite. A legal way to fix the race for sure.

Interesting how PYRO is under the radar all week long. Not a single press clip.

Smallpaul,

If that is the analysis you are using for Court Vision, you must use Anak Nakal who won the Kentucky Jockey Club and has been training great at Churchill.

I will toss them both.

CD, agree with you with the exception that Court Vision has been closing late in his last two, whereas Anak Nakal has bombed his last two.

CD
Anak Nakal has different running style than Court Vision. I am looking for a horse to come off the pace to use in my exotics. Anak Nakal was swallowed up in the stretch during his last in the Wood by CV. Add to that 93% of the winners of the derby have finished 1st,2nd or 3rd in their final prep race. Anak Nakal does not meet my conditions to qualify on any of my tickets given his recent form even though he may have a liking for the surface at chuchill. Could I ask why you are considering tossing CV? For any doubters about this ones fondness for the Chuchill surface you may want to reconsider based on his last few works.

COURT VISION On April 27 we worked five furlongs in 1:00.80 breezing which ranked 21st out of 61 this morning. He broke off in behind his company and was going real easy early on, a fast-gallop. He was asked to pick it up late and he responded well nailing the last eighth in a swift :11.40. This was a perfect move following his impressive gallop. Has done everything right so far. On April 26 he galloped 1 1/2 miles over the wet going at Churchill Downs with the exercise rider's 'feet in the dashboard'. He looked very alert, very confident and acted like he knew he belonged there and is ready to show you what he can do. This was a great follow up to his bullet work from 9 days prior. On April 17 G2 Remsen (as a 2yo) worked four furlongs over the Kentucky Derby surface in :46.20 which was a bullet best of 25 for the morning. To put this into perspective the 2nd ranked horse was 5 lengths slower. He went in company with the unraced stablemate Five Gold Rings who started the work a couple of lengths ahead of COURT VISION, but this son of GULCH blew past that one in the stretch and finished well clear. Churchill Downs clockers got his final quarter-mile in an awesome :23.0. COURT VISION looks absolutely outstanding over this surface. A seemingly very smart move by trainer Bill Mott was giving this colt 12 days rest after his 3rd place finish in the G1 Wood Memorial. Something interesting to note here is that Bill Mott Mott put blinkers on him and Mott is known for not believing in the whole concept of the equipment change of using blinkers.“The breeze was awful quick for Court Vision, as he's a horse who typically doesn't work fast,” Mott said

smallpaul,

Thanks for the stats. I researched this year's PPs and from your stats (2 starts at 3 and a mile+ win at 2), here are the true win contenders:

Z Humor
Z Fortune
Adriano
Cowboy Cal

I like those stats a lot, but I still have to keep Pyro at 1 and Gayego at 2.

oops. Visionaire and Anak Nakal too.

On Court Vision: I will not be using anyone from the Wood. I think it says something when that race was run in 1:52^2. That is the slowest time since 1952. And they walked home, Court Vision included. He has been a disappointment this year, as has Anak Nakal.