These Five Hold The Keys

With War Pass out, I'm hoping Bob Black Jack gets in just so we are guaranteeds some early pace. If Denis of Cork does not get in, his connections have nobody to blame but themselves.

Just a quick question, does Churchill have the .10 Super for the Derby? Or is it a $1 minimum?

JD, love your blog.

$1 minumum

I would like to know what the connections of Eight Belles will consider a poor post in the derby. If they get one of the top 15 picks in the post draw I don't think they should scratch. In that case, I have no problem with them cross entering in the Oaks and Derby. Now, if they are just entering the derby hoping to get one of the best post positions, I don't agree with that at all. Obviously you don't want to be in the 1 or 2 holes, or about the last three spots all the way on the outside. Anything other than 1,2,18,19,20 and there should be no excuses.

They should incorporate also-eligibles to prevent "strategical" enter-and-scratches.

I read somewhere that Cowboy Cal is not 100% committed to run in Derby

The first mistake that the connections of Denis of Cork made was presuming the $150k he pocketed in the Southwest stamped his ticket to Louisville, at least based on graded earnings. But that was an honest mistake -- in recent years the graded earnings cutoff has been right around $100k.

That said, I think he'll still get in. I find it hard to believe that Jones will cross-enter both fillies, he would take some heat to say the least, and rightfully so. Let's say he cross-enters Eight Belles, and scratch or not, that eats up a spot in the gate. There's no way Massive Drama will run. He would finish last if able to finish at all. And Zayat already has the two Z horses in the field. Salute the Sarge doesn't belong and it's very hard to believe they would ship back to Cali if he was going to run. Behindatthebar doesn't belong either, but it's easy to envision his connections taking a stab. And it's almost a certainty we'll get at least one defection in the coming days.

If I had to guess, Denis of Cork will the last horse to qualify, with an outside chance that even Halo Najib makes the field.

I hope Eight Belles draws the worst post in both races. Now where you gonna run Larry?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

What a loser. I personally think that Jones is an idiot for even thinking Eight Belles is better than Proud Spell.

I agree with jpk3 in that I'd love to see Bob Black Jack get into field. But my reasons are not pace related. I think BBJ has a huge shot to win the derby if he gets in and draws well. The horse is as consistent as they come and has the tactical speed to stay out of traffic. I think Big Brown will have company from recapturetheglory on the front end, which leaves BBJ in a great stalking position.

I rarely back a deep closer in the derby. I know that they win their share of Roses, but I'm not going to put $$$ on a horse getting through 16-19 other horses on derby day...especially in a field as closely contested as this year's. I'll back a front runner if I think he's good enough...and especially if he's shown the ability to stalk if he doesn't break early. Can Big Brown win by sitting 3rd-6th if he breaks poorly? The hard part is trying to figure out which front runners will/can stalk if needed...and which closers have shown tactical speed.

I'm not ready to back Eight Belles if she gets in. Guess I better do some more research on her and she what kind of fields she's beaten.

I keep coming back to the following five horses and will let their presence on the track tell me who gets the $20 WPS: Colonel John, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Big Brown, Tale of Ekati.

My waiting list: Monba, Pyro, Z Fortune

Are sure on Churchill not having the 10 cents superfecta at Churchill? I know I have bet a 10 cents superfecta at Arlington before and it is owned by Churchill.

I Honestly don't think these phillies have a chance in this years derby. Cross entering them I feel is a injustice to the colts. Truly though you can't blame the connections. For a long time the Kentucky Derby folks have known that trainers can use these earnings to their advantage and I truly believe a re-evaluation of the whole qualification system needs to be discussed.
If I had it my way, I would make it so that only graded stakes races at distances of a 1 1/16 or longer count and if fillies want to run in the Derby, then they should also run in those races. I mean a philly beating the girls over and over is one thing but let the same philly try to beat the boys a couple of times and it's a whole different story...
The other option would be the also eligables list. I know I here complaints about the field of 20 being to much but I like it, heck there should be 24... That's what makes it such a value race in the first place...
SoCalAl

Cd, SoCalAl,

3 3yo fillies have topped 100 Beyers this season, 2 in routes. Eight Belles did it once, then ran a 99 in her last, beating Alina, the other filly to do it. She might have done it again had she been asked to run in the Honeybee. Pure Clan, who Eight Belles dusted twice, was undefeated going into the Honeybee, and at that time favored over Country Star in pool 2 of the future wager. She has been racing against the best in the midwest, she has a breathtaking turn of foot, and if she can get the distance, she'll compete. Her last race was better than it looks, she needed a hard race after a bunch of easy victories, and if you watch her previous races... she's a special filly. Girls would beat the boys more often if the connections let them. There's just so much money to be made running against the same sex in the US. In the Dubai World Cup card, a filly took down one of the turf races, and Darjina finished 2nd in another. Ouiji Board and Irridescence consistantly ran and beat males. The fillies fit with these.

More than Salute the Sarge anyway... right potato?

Rock N Roll
I read that churchill inc. has a .10 super if you wheel or box it to make it a minimum $1 bet. But the catch is that it is available on every day except Oaks and Derby day.

Also, I've heard a lot about changing the criteria for selection into the Derby. Besides an AE list, what would you guys like to see?

Mine:
Win and You're In:
1) Breeder's Cup Juvenile
2) SA Derby
3) Wood
4) Blue Grass
5) Arkansas Derby
6) FL Derby

7-15
Graded Earnings, 100% for 1m+ as a 3yo regardless of surface. 75% 3yo sprints. 50% 2yo routes. 50% Restricted (fillies) regardless of age. 25% 2yo sprints.

16-20 Overall resume, submitted to the selection committee. Now that would make for an interesting selection show.

Of course... winning the 1 of the 6 stakes would get you in on earnings anyway... so maybe just the earnings multipliers, and the selection committee...

derbyme.

You got that right. haha.

Speaking of the 10 cent superfecta, I believe that I have the ticket of the first wager of its kind ever made. When I heard they were offering this bet at Keeneland's Spring meet in 2005, I went early to the opening day of the meet. As soon as I got in, I went to the window and placed a straight 10 cent superfecta wager 1/2/3/4 on the first race that offered the wager. I have the ticket framed at my house.

The Kentucky Derby is the most unfair race I know of

Twenty horses with some spots so bad you could lose 10 lengths before the race is started. Graded races run 10 months ago allow horses who have not improved much to get in ahead of contenders. It favors closers yet with 20 horses it is hard to get a good trip, although someone always does like street sense. I've never seen a horse get such a good trip right down the rail. He didn't have to go around any one until he reached hard spun. The last few spots remind me of wild card playoff positions for teams with little to no chance of winning. The best thing that could happen is if five horses scratched after drawing bad post positions. A fifteen horse race would be more fair.

z

So-called "spam" test.

Would like to add one to Mac's list of suggestions for entrants.

If you're in the top twenty, y'gotta declare your honorable intentions to run or
not an entire week before, so entrants just outside the magic circle can make prudent choices.
And maybe a serious penalty if y'play games with the notion of "honor."

And fillies have to make that Oaks choice or not - no double-entry.

The simplest methods are usually best. Committees can make it messy, that's why a number system like graded earnings work well. The problem comes when a horses gets a win so big he need not train or prove himself again for many months. What many people want is to see their horses prove themselves every month. I propose the following:

1 - Most top three graded finishes as a three year old.
2 - Ties revert to graded earnings.

Three finishes in the top three in graded races will likely get you in. Although with this rule trainers would be encouraged to race their horses every month to ensure enough top three finishes. Maybe it would take four. We would get a better idea of how well our favorite horses are improving.

z

zhorse, I agree with some of your thoughts, but let me ask you a question...Will you be wagering on the Derby? I imagine you will be or you wouldn't be on this sight. I bet you will for the same reasons as many others, which is the potential payouts of a 20 horse field. Take last year for instance, the $2 super payed $29,000, and for what? The order of finish by posttime favorite position... 1st-4th-3rd-12th. Not too shabby. And of course there was 2005, where one lucky individual got to bring home the $800,000 super payout, which is every derby bandwagoners dream. I know I always play a few lucky #'s, and let my kids pick some horses just for the chance. I hit the 2005 exacta for $1 (a $5000 payout) on my girlfriends birthday (Oct. 18th). Pure luck but I am not ashamed to admit it. So I guess what I am getting at, is I believe the same reasons you give for the derby being unfair are the same reasons the Derby is the most exciting, hair-raising 2 minutes in sports.

zhorse, I agree with some of your thoughts, but let me ask you a question...Will you be wagering on the Derby? I imagine you will be or you wouldn't be on this sight. I bet you will for the same reasons as many others, which is the potential payouts of a 20 horse field. Take last year for instance, the $2 super payed $29,000, and for what? The order of finish by posttime favorite position... 1st-4th-3rd-12th. Not too shabby. And of course there was 2005, where one lucky individual got to bring home the $800,000 super payout, which is every derby bandwagoners dream. I know I always play a few lucky #'s, and let my kids pick some horses just for the chance. I hit the 2005 exacta for $1 (a $5000 payout) on my girlfriends birthday (Oct. 18th). Pure luck but I am not ashamed to admit it. So I guess what I am getting at, is I believe the same reasons you give for the derby being unfair are the same reasons the Derby is the most exciting, hair-raising 2 minutes in sports.

*whoops, sorry for the double post

correction on the order of finish last year by posttime favorites- 1st-4th-2nd-12th

What a site it would be to see Bob Black Jack and Big Brown engage in a late stretch dual. If they run as greenly as they both did in their last prep races, they'll bump and grind, weaving in and out. The track announcer could even get confused.....and Bob Brown jack bumps Big Black....

Sight :)

I have bet the derby every year. This is the latest since before future wagering that I have not yet bet. I like Pyro with his 105+ beyer and two year old foundation, and breeding, but I refuse to bet on a horse for only 6-1 odds. In the Derby I demand more - like 12-1 or better. In the third pool I liked the "all others" pool, but in the end I couldn't bet. I wish I did. With Pyro coming in 10th in the Bluegrass I can finally make my bet come derby day. I don't like exotic wagering but most of the money is in the exacta, so I do wager that if the odds are under 600 to 1. I had two horses I really liked once. One was 50-1 , the other 30-1. I didn't want to pay taxes on any exacta win so I bet both to win. They ran one-two and I only won a $5 win bet. The exacta paid $5000. Dispite this I still will not bet on two longshots. I agree, the unfairness of the Kentucky Derby also make it the most exciting and biggest gamble in the world. I am better at picking the Derby than anything else in sports, and the Derby pays really well.

Back to the .10 super, or lack thereof, I understand why it is unavailable, presumably because the occupancy of machines and tellers, and the lines would be longer and slower, but imagine the size of the pools, not to mention if a .50 tri was available. I would invest alot more $$ in tris and supers if that was the case. I really have 4 primary horses with 3 secondary horses, and it would be concievable to play all 7 in some fashion using a wheel if .10/.50 were available.

z,

Selection committees bring controversy which is good for the game. Think BCS, think Selection Sunday in NCAA BBall. And also it allows for common sense. Anak Nakal would not be in, while DOC would. I refuse to back any requirements for number of races. Imagine if Curlin and Street Sense weren't allowed to enter. Imagine if Big Brown or Colonel John weren't allowed in this year. I enjoy the strategy, DOC backfired, but it made for good discussion. Forcing horses to make races seems a little backwards to me, if not dangerous.

That said, I am surprised no one took a last ditched shot at graded earnings in this weekend's Withers. $150K Gr. III with only 4 horses entered. A flat mile, it should not be overly taxing. If you come out better than you came in, wheel back. If not, it's a good set up for the Preakness. Halo Najib hasn't raced in 5 weeks. Tomcito only has 2 races this year. Dennis of Cork could run third in the 5 horse field and get in, along with a tightener and a 3rd prep.

If Tomcito ran 2nd of 5 in the Withers, he'd earn $30K putting him above BBJ and likely to get in. If DOC ran 3rd, he'd tie BBJ. Halo Najib would pass DOC by beating just one horse. My Pal Charlie, Hey Byrn, and El Gato Malo would all leap frog DOC with a 2nd place showing. BTW, Bernardini won the Withers as 2nd choice in a short field, and he ran OK in the Preakness... Just surprised no one took a shot I guess...

Justin,

With all due respect your information can be enhanced some. In conversations with insiders at Churchill and all of Kentucky, this is the info I received:

1. Only ONE filly will go in the derby, and it will be Eight Belles. Porud Spell is too smalll and Porter wants to make sure he can wn the Oaks.

2. Hello Najib worked in the grass last time out and strong indications are given that he will run in the turf on oaks day.

3. Massive Dram has been ruled out by ahmed Zayat himself and Sby Sonol publicly.

4. Big Truck (and you heard it here) came back bad from the BG and bad from arecent work and Tagg was very disappointd and he may not go...it is not confirmed yet, but go it from close backstrech people.

5. The above may even give Indian Sun a hope, but he is California and not scheduled to be in Saturday's flight.

With that said and the above holds, Visionare and Denis of Cork are in...and even Tomcito could move to No. 20.

i guess all is still a waiting game....

best to all,

oh...

forgot Behindatthebar...Pletcher indicated stringly that he would not go as he is s polytrack specialist, but needed to discuss with Mr Sanan. Information comes out that he is letting Pletcher make the decision and not sucomb to derby fever...it that holds he would also not be on May 3rd...

The official graded earnings as posted by CD racing secretary (not the downey profile, whch is good but he is not the racing secretary), can be found at

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44129

best to all,

derbyme

I like the idea of some common sense a committee would bring, but it is subjective and can be political. Connections with Trainers, owners, Jockeys cause people to appoint people to positions on committees like this so they will favor them somehow. Any system must be objective. Also horses who ran only twice this year did so because they could and still get in the derby. If the rules were different they would race every month. I bet horses. The bettors pay for the horses, the trainers, the owners, the track and most things connected to the business. I like to know how well my favorite horses are progressing toward the Derby, as well as other contenders. I can't handicap the horses if they don't race. Once a month is not out of line. Do you think one of the horses from the Withers really wants to race in the derby with only one week rest?

z,

Understood about the politics, and difficulty in handicapping fewer races, but I'm sure you've played an unraced maiden before. Betting horses, even those that appear to be locks is always a guess.

As for the 4 entered in the Withers, any one of them might go to the Preakness with a nice showing. I am a bit surprised that no one decided to try for the earnings in such a short field, and not even having to beat J Be K to get in. If you get an easy 2nd and come out better than you came in, why not give it a shot? And if not, it beats going into the Preakness off a 8 week layoff.

derbyme,
Eight Belles has not faced the best in the midwest, Arkansas isnt even in the midwest. If she wanted to face the best of her SEX, she would have gone in the ashland where the real OAKS contenders ran. Pure Clan is the only Oaks contender she has beaten. My feeling is that she will get dusted even if she ran in the Oaks. My biggest knock against her is the way she breaks. I watched every race of hers last night and in almost every one she broke a step slow which everyone knows is a death trap in the Derby. I dont care where you break, 3, 7, 11, 15, if you break slow there are going to be 19 other MALES fighting for position and closing holes to leave you way out of your comfort zone. I am not sure if Curlin stumbled last year but he wasnt quick into stride which led him to be out of his comfort zone and cost him the race. Eight Belles breaks slow in 4-7 horse fields, she cant afford to do so against 19. Put her in the Oaks and let her get beat so we can feel better on Derby Day that a wannabe filly didnt get in just to beat the tiring colts. And dont get me started on the international fillies and mares again. I'll copy and paste my comment from a previous post so I dont have to type it out again.

"You reference Australia and South Africa as places where fillies win Group 1's over males all the time and this indeed is very true. The only difference is these fillies have raced almost their entire careers against males. I have lived in Australia and know it all to well. The best horse there over the last decade was a mare, but she had raced against males her entire life. Day in and Day out, the maiden races there include colts, geldings, AND fillies, which does NOT happen in the US. My arguement is that people shouldn't be so high on her if she hasn't proven herself against males. Her owners could have even put her in an allowance race to see if she was up to it, but to beat up on fillies that aren't even the cream of the crop of her own sex, COME ON. To put her on top of the list of ALL 3 year olds like Dan did is ludacris. That is just as ludacris as Jeff Siegel of HRTV putting Big Brown on top of his Derby list BEFORE the Florida Derby when he hadnt proved anything against anyone. Now that he has it is understandable. Last year Rags to Riches had a proven ability to dominate her sex before the Oaks so I could have seen a Derby try, but to beat up on suspect fillies, no chance. Like I said before, ENOUGH ALREADY!!!! This site should be about serious KY Derby contenders, not suspect fillies."

Seems like Potato and I are the only people that disagree with what jones is trying to do here.

sripa1212,

Porter does not own Proud Spell. Brereton Jones does. Unless Brereton Jones is leaving the decision to Larry Jones, I think we could see both fillies in the Derby.

Halo Najib is pointing for the Derby, but is preparing to run on the grass if he does not make the field.

As I said, I will believe Massive Drama is out when I don't see his name in the entry box.

I total agree with Eight Belles not needing to race in the derby. In her last race is barely got up to win. On the form she looks like she maybe coming off her peak. This might be the reason Larry wants her in the derby, just maybe she wouldn't beat the girls right now. It's a good way to keep her value nobody can expect her to beat the boy's.

barbeach,
Got marked as spam, but I'll sum up. Rags had beaten almost no one except for Baroness Thatcher before her Oaks romp. Me thinks Tabor & Smith would have opted for the Derby if they knew then what they know now. She might have won. She may have been a triple crown winner... Only one way to see if she fits, run. Is it better to run in the Oaks and wonder what might have been... or go for it all and see where you fit in the Derby. That's a tough call, but there's only one derby. Can't fault anyone for going in either direction.

Alina is very fast. 1 of 2 fillies to post a 2 turn 100+ beyer, then paired a 98 against Eight Belles. Slow start an issue, but not impossible to overcome with the long run and a good trip. Pure Clan is VERY good. I refuse to respond to your Ashland comment for obvious and numerous reasons.

I dont know what your obvious and numerous reasons are, but I am stating that the Ashland was clearly a better/tougher race for Oaks prospects, which Eight Belles is and SHOULD be. 4 of the 9 contenders from the kentuckyoaks.com website were in the race. Pure Clan reminds me of Court Vision, VERY good at 2, not doing much at 3 yet. I never said Alina wasnt fast, but can she be a Oaks contender? No thanks. The comment about Rags is right but that is why they went for the Oaks, because she hadnt been challenged by her own sex. She proved she could beat the girls so she took on some Triple Crown tired horses and won, diservingly. But Rags and Eight Belles are in two totally different categories being that Eight Belles took 3 tries to break the maiden at Delaware of all places. Also, throw the Beyer numbers out for these fillies, no way they are the same if they ran against the boys.

Food for thought, about what i said earlier about putting her in an allowance race to see if she was good enough, there is a horse running tomorrow at Keenland that ran 5th to Cool Coal Man at churchill in an allowance. Why didnt Jones test her like this filly's trainer did? I think he is going to make a lot of enemies when she runs and duds in the Derby, or a lot of friends when she runs and duds in the OAKS for not taking their spot.

bar,

Jones could have shipped to Keeneland to run over an odd surface that she'd never ran on and probably wouldn't like, or she could run straight from her stall as the heavy choice versus 3 others on a surface she loves. Jones thinks the filly fits, shipping to prove a point in a prep race seems silly. Eight Belles was going for the Ark Derby but again, easy 4 horse field, or risk drawing the rail or 12 in a 12 horse field. Would Rags have won the Derby last year? She might have. No one will ever know because she never got the chance. There's only one Derby. She who hasn't proven she fits deserves a spot more than those that have proven they don't. No one is blasting Anak Nakal for running, or Z Humor. Neither of them have been close to any top horse this year. And this year doesn't really have much for standouts. I can't fault Jones and Porter for taking a shot, but respect your opinion and agree she has much to prove.

derbyme,

Careful throwing Z Humor under the bus. He ran right with Pyro at 2. You can toss his first 2 races this year...at Tampa (he may not have liked the surface)...at Gulfstream (that was only a week later and he still finished 4th)...last time out he didn't look too bad on "a speed favoring course."

All I am saying is that you could make a case for this one to hit the board.

Cd, I respect Z Humor for what he is. A Distorted Humor who runs his race everytime. His race could finish 4th I guess. He was well beaten by Pyro at 2. I just don't see how someone could make a good case for him, then say Eight Belles doesn't deserve a shot. I think everyone's just mad because of the cross entry. If Cowboy Cal were cross entered in the Derby and Crown Royal, Pletcher would probably be getting blasted too. Still, the connections are playing by the rules CDSN set up. If I were Zayat, I'd enter Massive Drama and scratch. If I were IEAH, I'd consider entering Ariege and Pure Clan in order to keep BBJ out for Big Brown. Is it a little underhanded, yeah, but you only get 1 shot at it. If Big Brown or Colonel John were at 21, everyone with an eligible horse would enter and scratch to keep them out. Churchill is to blame. It isn't like the scenario was unpredictable, or that the strategy had never been blamed before. I like the strategy involved. I like the chess match the connections have to play, often wanting only 2 races, but then leaving themselves little breathing room for a poor effort. I guarantee trainers play a bit differently this next year.

BTW,

Is Pure Clan really IEAH? She is listed on the Oaks site, but she wears differnt silks.

Many interesting points.. People talk about Fillies and their 3 digit byers. Folks big difference between posting these byers against the girls and smaller fields than against boy and larger fields.

This is IMO is by far one of the hardest derbys to pick.. 2 horse post at 106 or higher in route races. One is green the other who knows what the heck happened in the Blue Grass. Asmussen, what the all get out were you thinking putting that horse in that race... Many opinions from many folks but who knows for sure... Could this be the first horse over 50 years that ran 5th or worse and won the derby?... I will keep a good eye on the tote and exotics..

Big Brown, tons of speed and every thing else a great horse can have except he's inexperienced.. Will eat a lot of money Derby Day.. Please get post 17 or 19, I'll feel even better than.. :)

I have to be honest and say I have no idea who's gonna win this thing.

JD, I agree concerning Massive Drama. The horse ship around the world for the big money in Dubai. The distance between the Dubai and the Kentucky Derby seems to be a plan schedule. I believe Massive Drama will run because he made the condition of the race. Some owners race their horse just to here their name called during the race.

Sending him to Dubai was a crazy move, but not running in the Kentucky Derby after such a crazy move to Dubai would be insane. He's running because that was the goal all along. Plans simply don't change because you don't win, you simply move forward.

Nevertheless, I see nothing in the race which will win from the first tier of horses.
Even with War Pass out, the speed factor seems to be increasing. With War Pass in , you may have 1-2 give chase. War Pas out! now maybe 5-6 will shoot for the lead. Pace factor is through the roof now and changes how the wave of horse to the first turn will develop.

We only need to know the draw now! and all the puzzle piece will be put into play.

Has there been a publish report as to what trainers would like to receive as their post positions draw?

the top favorites, BB, Pyro, CJ and maybe ZF those are the only win candidates worth considering. As for Big Truck I'd like to hear it from Tagg before I believe anything I hear about rumors about speculation that he isn't feeling well.

bh,

I undestand the difference of posting a big figure in a small restricted field. For that matter, everything changes in a large open field. She does have much to prove. However, the fact that she ran a 100+ in a 8-9 horse allowance for fillies doesn't mean she can't do it against males in a large field. In fact, since class is figured in, it is tougher to run a big number in a restricted allowance than a GR 1 open to all sexes.

I would just like to throw this out there as Derby 134 is right around the corner...

I first want to thank all of the pros for another great year of blogs. A special thanks to Justin, Mac, and Jill: you guys have been great over the past 3 months.

Second, I would like to thank the bloggers for all of your inputs. It is interesting to hear everyone's perspective on the race. A SPECIAL THANKS TO BARRY, CALVIN, DERBYME, AND MIKE:

YOU GUYS HAVE BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF SPECTACULAR IN THESE BLOGS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. (MY NAME WAS "joe bloggs" LAST YEAR). YOU ARE THE ONES THAT I GET EXCITED TO SEE ON THE POSTS EVERY FEBRUARY THROUGH JUNE! BY THE WAY, WHERE IS STAN THIS YEAR?? JUST LIKE LAST YEAR, LET'S KEEP THESE POSTS GOING INTO THE BREEDER'S CUP! DON'T BE AFRAID TO THROW ONE UP THERE IN LATE AUGUST THAT YOU LIKE IN THE 5TH AT SARATOGA!

I'll second Cd's appreciative comments. Great job everyone. You've provided insight, entertainment, and a few winning plays as well. I love getting the perspectives of value players, trip handicappers, pedigree analysists, and numbers guys. The more angles you can play and understand, the more fun (and profitable) the game is. Great job!

P.S. Let's see how Kodiak Kowboy rebounds off his dismal Keeneland performance to get a read on what we can expect from Pyro and other poly-flops.

Sometimes these sights are full of ego driven opinionated people who don't listen and are only interested in pounding into their victims whatever twisted idea they have to further boost their self esteem.

I have seen little of that here.

Thanks for the insight of everyone involved in these blogs. There is no substitute. The angles I have recieved from these blogs peak my interest. We are always looking for value in betting horses. I have found a wealth of value right here with you guys.

I love Macho Again in the derby trial, win/place

Cdpotato4,

Thanks for the compliment.

Justin,

Will you be able to keep blogging through the Preakness and Belmont? Last year we kept your last blog "The Moment of Truth" alive and well clear through to the Breeders' Cup in Novemember with 672 posts.

You were sorely missed, though.

fabs,

Nice call with Macho Again and at a nice price of 6-1!

Thanks, I caught the exacta but finished second on both sides for the doubles.

Last years derby offered 10cent supers, I know I played 3 different ways and left Iamawildandcrazyguy off all of them.

Sorry folks, guess I was wrong or either they changed it. Super and tri's are all 1.00 minimun on Derby and Oaks day accoring the Churchill Downs website. hummmmm, guess I lost more than I thought on those super's last year, good thing I had three tri's.

Ya, $1 min. It's always been that way.

[music] I am in Lovvvvvvvve, with everyone here. So we stayyyyyyyy, and we never disappear, Bent off the mint, win or lose by a tip, way way way down in Kentucky. Cheers everyone.

This should be the post parade song as the horses are led to the track, imagine 75,000 people singing all at once, bobbing left to right and back to left, hold up a mint julip glass.

I know I am crazy, But i have to be if I betting on a horse! right!

Thanks Everyone. We are truly family. Each year we have a family reunion.

Sing it again Sam,

[music] I am in Lovvvvvvvve, with everyone here. So we stayyyyyyyy, and we never disappear, Bent off the mint, win or lose by a tip, way way way down in Kentucky. Cheers everyone.

Anybody see the picks these guys had last year?

http://www.winningponies.com/results/picks/tips/Kentucky-Derby-2007.html

I am going to try their picks after seeing some of their big picks... pretty consistent.