A Long Drive and a Crucial Observation

Justin-

I'm really going back and forth on Big Brown. The postivies: From a pure talent standpoint, he's the top horse in the race and I hate to leave the most talented horse off my tickets. Also, another postive is your endorsement of him. (You seem to me like a guy who likes chalk about as much as a root canal!) The other positive (for Big Brown, not me!) is the abscence of War Pass.

From a negative standpoint, he will be the chalk, and the lack of experience is a lot to overcome.

Hopefully, Bob's Blackjack will get into the race and I'll have my win bet sealed. (My top 2 are Bob's Blackjack and Monba, and I've got Monba covered as part of the pool 3 all others at 14/1, and my Derby Day win ticket will be on a horse I don't already have covered in the futures)

Eight Belles, as much as I hate the cross-entry shenanigans that Porter is pulling, is in my opinion, a legit contender in the Derby (would move into "top 3" if BBJ is excluded.) and Z Humour is the horse I'm considering using on my tickets although it makes no sense horse (but covered in Pool 1 and as part of all others in Pool 3, so won't be the win bet.)

Right now I'm leaning towards tossing Tale of Ekati and at best, using Colonel John at the bottom of some supers, and Pyro is a DEFINITE TOSS-not into 2nd or 3rd choices in the wagering who are coming off a 10th place finish-sorry!

Justin,

You are the "Bill Simmons/Sports Guy" of this website. You keep things light and humorous and have tremendous insight. Perhaps ESPN.com should call you up. As they say, moms are always right! While the style in which you told the story of Smooth Air was amusing, it was also relevant info to any superstitious gambler, like myself.

By the way, Mr. Scully doesn't like the way Pyro or Adriano looks right now. Maybe you could keep an eye on these two and let us know what's not to like. This is the week I look forward to your blogs. You have a great eye and I trust it!

Barbarazitariat,

Thanks for the compliment, but my "eye" is actually almost totally worthless, at least in comparison to a trained horseman. I can spot the absolute best of the best on the track, and I can spot the worst of the worst. But the 90% of the horses in the middle all look the same to me. Last year, Curlin was by far the most impressive moving animal of the hundreds of horses I saw on the track. And I remember that his stablemate, Zanjero, was the most "athletic" looking. In 2006 Barbaro was a stand-out. I am hoping that this year something jumps out at me.

Justin,

vey nice story. On those grounds, did you find out if Smooth Air is in or out? he may have gone to the track, but may he is still under infection of treatment, any updates?

Since you are there, check out the Big Truck barn, rumors continue to flow that Tagg does not want to run th horse but their owners do...any insight...

you will be our eyes and ears on the back stretch??
thanks

Yeah Justin it is not borderline ridiculous, but full on ridiculous the amount of time I've spent thinking this race through. The coverage here on the website is great, and you will probably never forget that black cat story, amazing. I hope something jumps out at you on Monday or Tuesday, I don't know how many horses are going to be gunning for a big work. At least there are a whole lot of horses on site this year. Z Fortune has four preps, has not been training fast, I think they're just racing him into shape, so I won't worry if he doesn't work a fast time this week. Colonel John should get a lot of attention if he works well, and if SA breaks out Curlin as a workmate for Z Fortune or Pyro that would be great.

I just realized that 3 of my last 4 blog entries have focused heavily on Smooth Air. I swear this was purely unintentional.

Dutrow will be high on life this week.

Justin,

Great to see arrived in CD - look on the bright side at least the black cat didn't run circles around you. Looking forward to your comments on Col. Johns work. So far Scully has said he looks good and seems to be adjusting to dirt well. Would a bullet work move him up on your list. Other than his low Beyers which are suspect and synth. to dirt, he seems to be one who's on a steady improve. What do to you percive to be his weakness if any come race day?

Augger

Justin,

I won't arrive until Oaks day so I am looking forward to your takes on all the barns. I would like to hear more about Gayego especially as he is my #2 choice. Georgie Boy was my pick to win the derby after the San Felipe so you can see why I am so high on Gayego.

Apparently Colonel John put in an amazing work. My regards to Mac on the other blogs. CJ now moves well into my top 5. I'll have to at least play savers with him now. :57 and change. I'm also pretty sure Court Vision worked without blinkers this time, saw footage of him on the track without them... Don't know what's going on with him.

Speaking of observations... what do you make of this Kent D. quote?

"You could probably point your finger at the Polytrack [in the Blue Grass], but I don’t think that’s why Cool Coal Man didn’t perform as well as he could. I think Nick had his own reasons, and he knows what they are."

Saw footage of the actual Court Vision work, and he was hooded, not in the bloodhorse footage though... maybe file footage...

Todays workouts on 2 of the few horses I like derby day,

COLONEL JOHN On Sunday morning, April 27, 'The Colonel' breezed five furlongs in a mind blowing :57.80 over a fast main track at Churchill. He did not look like he was going fast at all - he was going so fluidly and well within himself. He actually sort of fast-galloped the first two furlongs then increased his speed for the final three furlongs. He performed this move willingly, all on his own. It was a bullet best out of 61 to work this morning. He landed 4 furlongs in :46.0, galloped out in 1:11.2 and got a final quarter in an incredible :23.2! Even though the track was very fast this morning this was the best pre Kentucky Derby workout performed out of all and was definitely the most impressive workout at Churchill Downs all Spring!.

COURT VISION On April 27 we worked five furlongs in 1:00.80 breezing which ranked 21st out of 61 this morning. He broke off in behind his company and was going real easy early on, a fast-gallop. He was asked to pick it up late and he responded well nailing the last eighth in a swift :11.40. This was a perfect move following his impressive gallop. Has done everything right so far. On April 26 he galloped 1 1/2 miles over the wet going at Churchill Downs with the exercise rider's 'feet in the dashboard'. He looked very alert, very confident and acted like he knew he belonged there and is ready to show you what he can do. This was a great follow up to his bullet work from 9 days prior. On April 17 G2 Remsen (as a 2yo) worked four furlongs over the Kentucky Derby surface in :46.20 which was a bullet best of 25 for the morning. To put this into perspective the 2nd ranked horse was 5 lengths slower. He went in company with the unraced stablemate Five Gold Rings who started the work a couple of lengths ahead of COURT VISION, but this son of GULCH blew past that one in the stretch and finished well clear. Churchill Downs clockers got his final quarter-mile in an awesome :23.0. COURT VISION looks absolutely outstanding over this surface. A seemingly very smart move by trainer Bill Mott was giving this colt 12 days rest after his 3rd place finish in the G1 Wood Memorial. Something interesting to note here is that Bill Mott Mott put blinkers on him and Mott is known for not believing in the whole concept of the equipment change of using blinkers.“The breeze was awful quick for Court Vision, as he's a horse who typically doesn't work fast,” Mott said.

I was originally very reserved about the chances of Colonel John considering he was west coast based. I was also concerned about the low byers he was showing during his races.There had been lots of talk amongst fellow handicappers about the byers of the horses coming from the west cost being too low and not giving the horses proper credit for the final times of their races. After the workout Colonel John posted this morning he appears to have a very ligitimate shot at a win. Any doubts about his ability to handle the dirt course at Chuchill may be laid to rest. After the workout he had this morning he appears to be rounding into top form, he looks like ha may be a very strong contender.

Court Vision continues to work well over the Churchill surface and may be the Wise Guy horse come raceday. This horse has shown that he may be a completly different animal at Churchill. Mott has got this horse rounding into peak form heading into the derby and I expect a top effort with this horse when he hits his favourite track with his 3rd race off the shelf. Add to that, a top notch respected trainer and jockey that are both hungry for their first lifetime win for the run for the roses. Intersting play in my books, just waiting for the post position draws to finalize my selections. This is going to be fun as always, can't beat this horse racing game for pure excitement. Great website.

Two questions: How come no one comments about the positive effects of Pyro tanking his last race and that it could have just been strategy? He was already in the Derby at that point, and a win would only have brought out a magnifying glass, making him the one to beat and the big time favorite. People would have been all over him, even threatening to block his path and make sure he didn't get a good trip, etc. Now for the flipside -- he is currently all but forgotten about by all fair weather fans jumping from band wagon to band wagon and yet remains the third choice of the M/L. Is there really no one else who can appreciate the benefits he has gained by getting out of the lime light and think that it might have been done for good reason?

Secondly, what is the benefit of a win, place bet where the amount of the place bet is twice that of the win bet (10 to win, 20 to place)? I hear people doing this all the time but want to know the rationale.

Also the blog is great, and much more personal than the rest of the coverage!

I made a point sometime back that Pyro actually used the Bluegrass as a work....A mile and 1/8 in 1:52....thats a great work...if not much of a race.........about the wager....its a save bet...if the horse runs second you break even or maybe make a buck............

showm-themoney

Question 1

I hardly belive Pyro tanking his last race is a positive. If it was racing stategy than it makes little sense. If their stategy was to keep the media away from their horse and barn, than I suspect their plan has worked perfectly. One thing to consider before plowing your money into Pyro is that - He has not had an official workout that has been published since his very disappointing 10th place finish in the G1 Blue Grass 13 days ago. He did, in fact, work six-furlong's on Monday April 21 at Keeneland but in heavy fog so nobody could get a time.

Another thing to consider is that 93% of ALL derby winners have finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their final prep race.

Question 2

The reason handicappers place the bet this way is that if your horse runs a solid race, and you get beat at the finish line you still make money. The main reason to bet this way is because it is a strong "cover" bet.

In races such as the derby, only 2 horses finish first or second (unless there is a dead heat). The mutual pools are bigger as there is a lot of money bet on the race, because the field of horses entering the race are larger than normal race fields.(20 horses to bet on) Last years derby had 49 million dollars wagered in all of the pools combined..(win bets, place bets, show bets, exactors, triactors, etc.) Hence a nicer payoff in the place pool. Hope this helps.

Thank you both for the answers.

One more question about betting: What are the advantages of an exacta bet vs. win bets? Would it be ill advised to make two win bets, knowing that only one horse can win? OR would there be an advantage to trying to hit an exacta with either of the two horses? It seems like sometimes the the exacta bet doesn't pay that well, but does that change in the derby if there are more horses and money bet, etc?

Thanks for all the insight!!!!

You must look at the exacta will pays to decide which is the better way to play it.

Justin

I really like the way your thinking. I must admit however that Pyro still me be a major player if he has a tremendous workout in company of Curlin. Based on Beyer figures and times run between the 3/4 and mile poles, there are three that should dominate this field. Big Brown, Gayego and Pyro. I'm hopeful that between your insight, any final workouts and the draw I'll be able to zero in on the winner. Looking forward to your updates!

Justin *

It's interesting you mentioned the walkings of the feline. I got into poker ten years after horses. It turned me into a suspicious type. I learned about tells and superstitions early. I used them with success. I did things on purpose that others thought of as unlucky to effect the betting. I gave false tells to make people play their hands like I wanted.

A black cat in the barn area on derby week? That is an obvious plant. It would not surprised me if the cat was well trained to circle. Come on. I don't like or dislike Smooth Air but suddenly I like him much more from this story. You should follow that cat around and let us know who else he is trained to circle.

Z

No horse will pay less than $4 to show thats a for sure....

fabs,

I like it a lot. For me it's Pyro and Gayego!

I like Gayego

justin,

I have pretty much set my sites on colonel john but dont have the money this year to play my trifecta so looks like i will have him with some others but mostly will have exatas all over the place. look forward to hearing what you have to say this week as we creep closer to race day

I hear a black cat crossed Smooth Air's path on the way in and on the way out. I was going to play him before but now with the sickness and then this, I'll definately be leaving him out completely.

Mike B...sticking with your picks?

I think Gayego will tank and am starting to admire the Colonel..Pyro and DOC are still enticing but will there be a blistering pace to close into?

Dear, Justin

Anyone who saw the black cat is also jinx. That may include you?

Ha! Are you sure you didn't have a little travel companion with you.

Come on!

500 miles and 8hrs is a lonely trip and still came up with nothing! Your kidding right! Make sure you get the car tune up, before leaving, I wouldn't want you stranded with no transportation home like many of the gambling casino players.

Hopefully, the bankroll is not lost with the "BLACK CAT" departure. That's serious and bizarre occurrence.

Don't worry, though, I have a feeling your bad luck started when you were selecting Indian Mischief "fallen to injury". Then War Pass, you know what happen there in Tampa and eventually fallen to injury and many more. Now Smooth Air and the horse is sick! Not a good year thus far. I been tracking your selections. Mac is in the same boat with Crown of Thorns and then El Gato Malo.

So keep your eyes off The Colonel John please! Your luck has went somewhere, I just need to find it!

Nothing personal, but simply an observation. Oh! go pay a visit to Big Brown and Pyro. Spread a little LOVE around the barn. But see Smooth Air first. He has a present for the competition

Yours Truly
Barry

Justin-

I may not be the sharpest crayon in the box but I fail to understand why a "lack of experience" would disqualify Big Brown in the derby. This is a horse who has shown a remarkable turn of foot AND an ability to rate. He has the highest Beyers and improves with every start. I just can't see where a lack of experience is going to get him in trouble if he is on, or just off the lead as I'm sure he will be. Please enlighten me as to how his lack of experience can get him into trouble. The only trouble spot I can see would be the start & that would be applicable to all the horses regardless of experience wouldn't it?

JD,
sounds like \"el gato malo\" showed up after all...just not the one everyone thought last month.

Class of 66, I agree. Since he will be near the lead, the 20 horse field shouldn't impact him as much. Besides, noone in this field will have seen anything close to what they will see in on May 3rd in terms of field size, and crowd size. In that department they all have a lack of experience.

2 starts at 3

3 career starts

3-1 or less

Others with foundations are not only safer plays, but you will get a nice price.

If you love Big Brown, I suggest playing P3s and the late P4. Solo him in the derby, that's where the value will be. And play him over at least 10 in the exacta.

Silly Justin, didn't anyone tell you that black cats are lucky! This definitely confirms for me that Smooth Air will get a piece of the pie on Saturday!

I like Big Brown enough to single him with one other for the box exacta. I will go $100 each way and invest a little with them two over a few for the super.

Not bad suggestions... I'm going to play picks from www.winningponies.com

They are pretty consistent, and they got huge picks last year for the Derby.