Addition By Subtraction

I didn't want Denis of Cork in the field because I like the horse enough that I now have to use him on my tickets. My tickets would've been a lot cheaper without him. Now I'm going to key Colonel John, Denis of Cork and Court Vision. And to protect against the dangerous horses, I think I'm going to need to use the ALL key on some of my tickets. This race is just getting tougher and tougher. Just wait till they draw the post positions.

Justin, yeah it wouldn't shock me if Colonel John is the favorite, especially if the post draw favors him somehow over Big Brown. People love everything about him. I need to start doing some subtraction myself, because the more I look the more horses I like. I'll have to use Denis of Cork and Colonel John on some tickets as they look too good to leave off entirely. I still don't like either one for the win, though.

justin,

Posted this Kent Desormeaux quote on another blog and got no response. What do you make of it?

"You could probably point your finger at the Polytrack [in the Blue Grass], but I don’t think that’s why Cool Coal Man didn’t perform as well as he could. I think Nick had his own reasons, and he knows what they are."

This was taken from a jockeys' interview on thoroughbredtimes.com Cool Coal Man has the look of an impressive and improving cot, so I have no idea what to make of this.

Other thoughts: Eoin Harty always works super quick and he seems to think he may have done to much with the Colonel. Denis of Cork was 100-1 on Bodog last week and then dropped to like 12-1. To this day I don't know how he got beat in Illinois. Big Brown might go off 7/2-4/1 now.

derbyme,

I don't know what to make of Kent's quote.

derbyme,
it means that he thinks the trainer's instructions on how to run the race, pacewise, was suicidal for the horse's chances not only in the Blue Grass but also for the Derby, where there is no way that Cool Coal Man can carry speed the whole way. Maybe he thinks Zito was training a rabbit to be sent to compromise Big Brown in the Derby or something like that.

and that is just a guess really, I have no personal knowledge of that.

Justin, did you see Pyro, Z Fortune or Big Truck work today? Any impressions of these 3?

I think its really funny how you guys jump off Pyro and then worry about Cool Coal Man. Just go ahead and I will be more than happy to beat you with Pyro. Simply put, there is no comparison, Pyro is much the superior horse. You need to go back and look at his two wins at La. Downs. His Derby win there can only be compared to Midnight Lute's late kick in the Breeders Cup Sprint. And he did it thru the heaviest of traffic. My money and heart are with Pyro. He is the key!

plavixman,

Pyro is clearly a threat, but I already knew I wasn't going to use him based on his odds. So if he beats me, he beats me. Now Colonel John will likely be lower odds than Pyro. But I like The Colonel better than Pyro.

Your point is well-made. Pyro is definiely the forgotten horse this year.

Patbateman,

I didn't see any of those works. However, you can see them for yourself. Go to the home page here at KentuckyDerby.com. Look to the right of the page, and click on the "Works Board" about 1/2 way down the page.

Works Board link:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/works

might as well chime in.........closers have won more often than not in the derby...to name a few......Ferdinand,Alysheba,Lil E Tee,Monarchos,Giacomo,Grindstone,etc etc...why should this year be different..dont see lone speed with Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, and anyone willing to commit suicide on the frontend...Col. John has a strong late kick,Monba and CourtVision seem to be improving and Denis of Cork broke his maiden at CD from way back....and then there is Pyro....everyone complains about how slow Col. John is compared to Big brown...Pyro's last 3 beyers are 90,95 and a rip snortin'73....Proud Spell outran him at the fairgroungs on the same day and I would be more afraid of her than Pyro....Pyro's 2 wins at Fairgrounds where he smashed My Pal charlie and Yankee Bravo and Z Fortune........thats why he's forgotten

I'm happy about Denis of Cork. He'll be at decent odds and he'll surely be in the first 4. I can now safely leave out Smooth Air and Cool Coal Man as I don't think either is as good as DOC. It works well for me.

I am thrilled about Denis of Cork being in the Derby.....now I have my perfect superfecta selection.........$1 superfecta box Denis, Cal, John and Bob! How can that lose?

jane,
bob and john tanked a few years ago in the derby, maybe john and bob will do a little bit better for you, good luck.
can calvin win 2 years in a row?

Well I sure hope Denis can win for Calvin & me, because I took 'Denis" in Pool One (46-1). I was getting all annoyed thinking he wasn't going to get into the Derby.

Now if I can just get the Oaks / Derby double with my Future Pool picks
'A to the Croft' (44-1 & 37-1) Golden Doc (27 & 32-1) or Bsharp (30-1) I'd really be happy!

Justin,

I think you're in good shape leaving Denis of Cork, Cool Coal Man and Tale of Ekati off your tickets. Colonel John is legit and very well could be favored if, as patbateman writes, the post draw favors Colonel John over Big Brown, say drawing 6 vs. 19.

tracmonster...I understand your statement reguarding closers, but allow me to make it a little more specific. Maybe I define a "closer" differently than you do, but Monarchos, Barbaro, Real Quiet, etc. were not closers. They were all stalkers. When a horse hits the lead or near the lead when they hit the top of the lane, I see them as stalkers. None of those horses came from the clouds. A true closer comes from the very last flight of horses and doesn't even hit the radar screen until the final furlong or even the final 1/16 of a mile.

As I stated in an earlier post, closers have won their share, but just as many front runners and stalkers have won as well. I always prefer a stalker with tactical speed. For a horse that typically comes from way back to win the derby, he better have two things: 1) a quick pace (which is usually the case on a fast Churchill track in the derby), and 2) the good fortune of no traffic trouble. The latter is what gets most closers beaten.

As for picking a horse to win, I stay away from closers unless they are no doubt the best horse in the field and/or they are not deep closers. Colonel John is a great example. He will likely split the field of 20 this Saturday when the 1/2 and 3/4 times are posted...but he won't be last. I wouldn't like him nearly as much if he was a deep closer. Does he come from off the pace? Sure. Be he's no closer to me. Guess I'm talking semantics here.

Anyhow, Colonel John is the key to this race. He will be the favorite or the second choice. He is training like a monster and the distance should hit him right between the eyes. If C-Nak keeps him out of trouble and the cook on the front end, he'll be a load in the stretch. If he doesn't hit the board, I won't cash a ticket.

What is everyone's take on Big Brown? I just can't seem to get too high on him. I know the Florida Derby has produced some good horses lately, but I just can't see him winning this thing. Bob Black Jack is getting blinkers for the first time, which hurts his chances in my opinion (if he gets in?). Recapuretheglory will gun for the lead. Gayego likes to run on the lead. It seems awfully crowded up there. Maybe the post position draw will help clear the picture.

I think sometimes we get lost in the numbers game. While they are important the shape of the race dictates most of the time its outcome. Pyro is not going to the front in any race, so the pace is set up front and when the jockey thinks its time to go he responds or in the case of the Blue Grass, they don't like Pyro didn't. Look, there are twenty horses in the derby, most of them think they have somekind of chance or the wouldn't be there. Most all of them have had a bad race or even two. Big Brown hasn't, but then he's only run 3 races. Just like War Pass in the Tampa Derby, he rebounds in the Wood, did he win, No, but he was still the key, or atleast one of them. Pyro is a key, maybe to win, maybe to show or place, he is difinitely a key, but so is Col. John and Big Brown. Maybe even Gayego or Denis of Cork or perhaps Tale of Ekati. What matters is to cash that ticket Saturday and make a profit.

Justin,

Addition by Subtraction is a must in a field this open. Here is who I will leave out based on these reasons (keep in mind this is for the win only, these horses may show up at the bottom of my exotics):

2 or less starts at 3:
Monba, Tale of Ekati, Recapturetheglory, Big Brown, Court Vision, Salute the Sarge

Never faced the boys:
Eight Belles, Proud Spell

More than 4 weeks since last prep:
Smooth Air

No 100+ Beyer:
Z Humor, Adriano, Cowboy Cal, Massive Drama, Visionaire, Big Truck, Hey Byrn, Denis of Cork

SO, That leaves me with Gayego, Bob Black Jack, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, and Z Fortune.

I will then toss Bob Black Jack and Z Fortune for their losses to Gayego. I believe Gayego beats Z Fortune regardless of the distance.

THAT LEAVES ME WITH PYRO, GAYEGO, AND COOL COAL MAN! MAKES THINGS A LITTLE EASIER DOESN'T IT?

On another note:

A quote from Zito following the FOY has slipped my mind. It was something to the effect that he was suprised with how poorly Anak Nakal ran. And something like he would point Cool Coal Man toward the Florida Derby, but he was still not confident in his ability and he needed to prove he belonged in the race before he made a final decision.

Anyone have that quote or remember it better than me????

Krimson Kat........not looking for an argument...just feel that horses from well off the pace run better in the derby than not..........deep closers or stalkers..it doesnt really matter......Alysheba for instance was 13th by 17 on the backstretch and made an Arazi type move and was already 2nd behind Bet Twice when they hit the 1/4 pole....so I'd say that was a closer but youre right...its semantics and definitions....point is...I dont want to be in front....until they cross the wire that is................as for betting the race....people might say Im crazy but Big Brown and Pyro will be NOWHERE on my tickets.....Im keying Col. John and Believe it or not...Court Vision.....I think Gomez has been saving something with this horse and he's staying on when Im sure he could have had his pick of some good ones....dont be shocked to see GG get this one flying late.....also I like Dof C,Monba and Gayego underneath....might throw in Tale of Ekati in 3rd and 4th as well...his Wood was on a track with a 25 variant.............good luck

Cp where is Colonel John in your subtraction or addition?

Well Mike, I know your going to love the odds on Pyro. Don't eat hay!
Should receive 6-1 and above.

I believe the gap between 1-2 to 3-4 is huge in the wagering.

Everything else bottoms out at 10-1 and above.

Nevertheless, I believe the play of the weekend in Country Star. She will likely be 7-1 in the wager. You will never get another opportunity at these odds.

She was projected as the favorite from lastyear, she is still the horse to be recon with in the Oaks. I know Bobby has her ready to roll. Lovin it!

I hope so barry i have 200 on her in the pools i think im gonna take pure clan to back it up if eight belles decides to go in the derby for my oaks doubles. just waiting on the post draws...

How anyone can discount Court Vision. There is some talk about him on this site but very few backers. I for one will say he hit's at least the top 3 with a very good shot at the win. There are still things to consider, post position draw, and of course weather conditions (there is a 60% chance of thunder showers). Court Vision is a horse that qualifies for the derby win. As a 2 yr old he won the Remsen,(a key 2 yr old prep). The race I like however, is the Grade 3, one mile Iroquis he ran at Churchill Downs with a 90 beyer.. After a couple of solid efforts in the Fountain of Youth and the Wood he now returns to his favourite track. He is working like a machine over this surface and looks like he is ready to throw a nice race.

I"m counting on a bit of "racing luck" and a few thing's happening here for Court Vision to rule the day. First the track must come up fast and he must draw a decent post. If he runs his race I expect him to hit the stretch with his best career effort and a Beyer figure of around 103. That should put him right in the thick of things. Add to that he is trained by Bill Mott who is overdue for his first derby win. Court Vision will be ridden by Garrett Gomez arguably the best rider in the race without a derby win. It could be a great day for the both of them.

CDpotato

Out of your top three two were worse than fourth their last race (pyro and cc man) and a horse who was worse than fourth hasnt won a derby in at least fifty years
that leaves you with gayego i guess

myself i like bobs blackjack who didnt have the lead in the sa derby and may have won the race were there not a closer bias that day

dont be suprised if pletcher wins finally since this is the year everyone counted him out during the earlier preps

Barry,

Sorry bout that. Only 2 starts at 3 and no 100+ beyer.

Smallpaul,

I know we have had our disagreements as of late and here is yet another one. I emphasize that the Wood was run in 1:52^2. Not only that, but he didn't even win. Not only that, but they walked home, Court Vision included. He came home the final 8th in :13.58!

1:38.42 3 1/2 lengths back = 1:39.12

1:52.35 1 3/4 lengths back= 1:52.70

1:52.70 - 1:39.12 = :13.58!

Yuck!

I am glad we agree on Gayego though.

smallpaul2002, every blog you write you are lowering the potential payouts for handicappers like you and I. I for one want to see CV's name pop up as little as possible. By the way, not too worried about post position, will be in the 2nd half of runners anyway and has the whole stretch to get a spot in the 1st or 2nd lane. I would prefer the 2nd lane as distance won't be a problem and he can spread out easier to find a lane down the stretch. Do I smell an IEAH exacta? Or better yet a Winstar/IEAH trifecta? A real possibility in my opinion.

CD, every time I see the "^" symbol, I don't even have to read it, I know it is you reminding us about the slow Wood time. Keep talking man, because again it will only help my cause and hurt yours, but all things aside I respect your opinion. Only thing is I think it was the track and not the horses so much. I had a large place on CV, hoping WPass would not hit the board and the payout would be decent. I almost had a heart attack when it seemed he wasn't gaining, but I do think the late surge for 3rd was mildly impressive (but the payout was awful).

An Analysis of the Likely Starters

I'm taking a stand against Z Fortune who I liked a lot. I get the sense from Asmussen's comments that he thinks Z Fortune may be a tired horse after running what he calls, "the race of his life" in the Arkansas Derby. His work was just what was asked of him so it's hard to hold that against him but with so many others impressing I've got to toss him. He could come back to haunt me. As such if he looks full of energy in the mornings from now on he could regain a place at the bottom of my supers.

I'm tossing Monba since his work this week at Keeneland. He worked horribly and he pulled himself up sharply afterward. I know he's not the best work horse but he did work fourth best of 56 before the Blue Grass. He's a toss since I feel he may be bouncing off that effort.

Bob Black Jack is a toss. With the addition of blinkers he'll go for the lead. Barry you were right! He's showed he can run 1 1/8 when he rates. I'll take my chances against him holding on at 1 1/4 after cutting out what will likely be fast fractions.

Adriano is a toss. He worked terribly and he needs too many things to go his way. He needs to remain calm despite the crowd and he needs to not get bounced around. He's my pick to finish last.

Cool Coal Man is a toss. I know he's won at the track but he was also beaten out of sight on it by Anak Nakal when the stakes were higher. He seems the type to want to dominate and if he can't he packs it in. I'll let him beat me. He didn't show Pyro like form before his poor Blue Grass effort.

Big Truck is a toss despite the bullet work. He started his work fast and finished up slowly. Not the type of effort one looks for from a closer. His pedigree suggests miler and I think he'll find his niche at that reduced distance. He's a nice Grade 2 and 3 performer in the making.

Z Humor is a toss. He's just not classy enough or fast enough and he's not working well enough. He'll try his hardest and finish about 14th.

Recapturetheglory has been training "ok" according to the professional clockers. The son of Cherokee Run figures to be a victim of the pace scenario and I'm willing to bet that he'll begin to fade after 3/4.

I'm tossing Visionaire because I don't think he's good enough. In my estimation he's a step below Z Fortune and his pedigree suggests miler. He has a good trainer though and this could be one who comes back to haunt me. Still I'm willing to take that chance as there are others who I feel have better credentials. He also hasn't worked inspiringly.

Cowboy Cal is a toss too. I'm not too convinced he'll be there at the end of 1 1/4 miles on dirt after his second place effort off slow fractions in the Poly Grass. He is a high class performer without a doubt but again there are others with srtonger claims.

I'm not fond of playing horses whose health is questionable so Smooth Air is in doubt. Apparently the black cat crossed his path AGAIN today! He looked full of energy this morning so I may still play him.

I'm left with 9 or 10 horses for the super. I don't think Anak Nakal has the class but I feel he'll be the longest shot on the board and they have a way of hitting that fourth spot on D Day. He's been working well enough for me to take a gamble.

Tale of Ekati is going to be a bit of a forgotten horse and I feel he'll move up off his Wood performance. He's working quite well and he showed in the Breeder's Cup that he'll give an effort even if the conditions aren't ideal. I like his placing chances at longish odds for a Wood winner in his third run off a layoff.

Court Vision is another who could pick up minor pieces but won't inspire huge payouts as I think every "smart" horseplayer will to play him in the exotics. He's a changed fellow with the addition of blinkers and the move to Churchill.

Initially I didn't like Eight Belles but I loved her work and I think she matches up physically with the boys which is a big plus. She's classy but for some reason I doubt her ability to finish strong at the end of 10 panels. I think she'll be right there at the top of the stretch and it will be a matter of heart whether she can hold onto a place.

Gayego is working well on the Churhill strip. He also looks a picture! Everyone loves his looks and he could be bet down into single digits. I can see him being first 3 until the 1/16th pole and fading to fourth. That being said I think he'll prove just as good as Colonel John at 1 1/16 to 1 1/8. He handled Bob Black Jack quite well himself in a second place effort to Georgie Boy.

Denis Denis Denis of Cork has finally got in! I'm elated as he is working like a champ. His owner could be vindicated in the biggest way if he bounces back with a win here. In my estimation this one has a chance to win it at decent odds. I figure he'll go off at about 15-1. My only pari bet will be an across the board bet on this guy. If he hits he'll pay me back for all my money spent on the exotics.

Pyro finished up his work well today under no urging at all. His work was far more inspiring than that of his stablemate Z Fortune. He showed in the Risen Star that he is a class above that one and I believe that still holds true. He is high class and barring serious traffic problems he'll be flying at the end. He could be this year's forgotten horse like Monarchos. He can surely win but if he does I can only hit the tri and definately not the super.

Colonel John is coming into this race like a beast. He overcame adversity to win the SA Derby after being unexpectedly shuffled back coming into the home turn. If you watch his previous races you'll see this SA Derby was the first time he was given right hand urging by the jockey. With this added information and a clear run he's a definate late running threat to Big Brown. The work this guy put in yesterday was the best I've seen on video. The California form has held up and he's been the best out there ( I would have loved to have seen Georgie Boy make the race). Ten Furlongs suits Colonel John to the bone. He's bred for it and he runs like he's yearning for it. He's all class and I'll make sure that I can win the super if he gets up.

Big Brown is still the fastest horse. If he'd broken from the 2 hole (where Elctrify broke from in the race in which he set the track record) in the Florida Derby he'd have won by 10 and own the track record. The 5 weeks between races is perfect for him to be able to bounce back off that huge effort. At the end of the Florida Derby he was playing with his ears and he wasn't even blowing when he came back to the winner's circle which leads me to believe that the race didn't take too much out of him. He figures to avoid trouble in the Derby with his high cruising speed and I can almost guarantee this one will be in front at the 1/8 pole. Desormeaux says the horse is so intelligent he thinks he can win if he's 14th early on. His camp is confident and so am I. He's a monster and I think we could be looking at the next Seattle Slew. God knows racing could use it. If he wins I'll have my best chance at cashing the exotics, but then again so will half the betting public.

Good luck to all.

Barry, hope you are right. I saved a place on my TVG Fantasy for her (Country Star)and then she let me down. I thought most had forgot her. I agree that she should run a great race in the Oaks. Could sure use that 80 points to help me get into the top 25.

Ryan, My god you must'a spent hours doing this synopsis. But I must say you did a terrific job. One of the reasons I say that is I almost agree 100% with every thing you wrote. GREAT JOB AND GOOD LUCK!

Thanks for the analysis ryan.

ryanmoseley
Excellent post, keep up the good work

Thanks plavixman,

It didn't take half an hour. When you have Derby fever anything is possible. I'm nervous every minute of the day. I've run the race in my head well in excess of 1000 times and I'm DYING to see the post position draw so I can see it more clearly in my head. This is definately the highlight of my whole year every year.

http://thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/April/25/jock-talk-april-2...

Very interesting comments re: Court Vision and Cool Coal Man.

Nice analysis Ryan. Hope you cash in a big one with Big Brown delivering.

Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, and Cool Coal Man are all monsters, that could definitely happen. What a great year to watch the derby!

I'm using http://www.winningponies.com for picks

BTW,

Tomcito would be in the field if he ran in Withers and beaten 2 horses. And if he didn't come out well, it woulda' been a nice set up for the Preakness.

derbyme,

haha you guys never let up

enough with the advertisements. you posted it on every blog.

DRF does a pretty nice Pace Analysis. http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/moss/derbyhistory.html
I averaged out the 1st quarter fraction to be 76 over the years. I don't remember every lineup but I know there is always speed, sometimes it materializes and sometimes not. But you can't write off the lead. My point is that I'm getting to think people are starting to get into lazy group think about speed in the Derby. Maybe trainers are too. I can hear em all saying, they're gonna fly, so rate. Maybe the guy that don't rate shakes loose.

And I don't believe Steve A for a second that Z Fortune is tired. Tell me Silver Charm, Thunder Gulch, Funny Cide, Monarchos, Go For Gin...tell me how gassed they were after GAME 2nd's in their final preps?

McMitch, I agree completely. After the race Z Fortune just ran 3 weeks before the Derby I would be surprised if they would be asking him to work really fast. He has been racing his way into shape all year, and none of his works have been fast, especially the one immediatelye preceeding a race, all by design. I'm not sure Bob Black Jack will get the lead over Recapturetheglory, and I think these 2 will push each other into a pretty fast pace, with Big Brown, Gayego, Cool Coal Man, etc. off the pace a little. Maybe Dutrow sends Big Brown to the lead after all, you know he can get it if he wants it.

Barry,

Your posts are the stuff of legend.

Churchill Downs new blogger, Ashley Walker, mentioned your name in one of his blogs.

http://www.churchilldowns.com/node/398

Mcmitch,

The Pace Analysis is one of the best articles I've read this year. I wish I could get those for all the Derby preps.

Steve A didn't come out and say that directly. He said he wanted Z Fortune to work that slow so he would have his A game for the big dance. All those game 2nd finishers you mentioned turned in impressive fast works before the Derby. Where is Z Fortune's impressive fast work? I'm not saying he won't find a place. I just choose to take my stand this year based on how impressed I am by the horses on the track in the mornings leading up to May 3. Although I always intended to play Z Fortune I may leave him out simply because I can't play em all. I can make positive cases for too many. You gotta take a stand somewhere and I choose here.

Ryan, no fault in taking a stand for whatever reason sounds good to you. I've got to start making some stands or I'll have a ten thousand dollar superfecta ticket if I include all the horses I still like. And unfortunately I can't afford that, and if I could I would put it towards a hybrid car or something. I am thinking about taking a stand against all the speed except Big Brown, all the horses who only prepped twice in 2008 except Big Brown and maybe Colonel John, all of the horses who ran in New York as 3 year olds, and all of the horses who have yet to at least finish 2nd in a stakes race this year. I still have some work to do.

This is the best blog ever and your commitment to writing frequently is much appreciated. Since you should have some "pull", can you get the web masters that do the conteders page to update the jockeys? Thanks.

FASLANE,

I have no pull whatsoever. But I'll see what I can do.

Great work Ryan, Your ready as you will ever be! Great work this year and good luck

Mike, you got what you wanted Christmas may come early, if the fat man can get down the chimlee.

Calvin, I made the press, are you kidding! Man thats wonderful. I'll take those party shots. Cheers! Excellent work and we are still family my brother.

Plavixman, Members reward points. To bad you cannot get bonus. Country Star will run her race. Bobby always has trained for the big races. Nothing stands in her way on Oak day.

Cp, again, rem, they simply don't learn, that's why there is the school of hard knocks.

Barry,

Thanks lot! Good luck to you too and congrats on being a superstar blogger!