Brown Town

As a fan of horse racing and the Kentucky Derby I'm honoured that you're sharing your Derby Fever and experiences with us. Thanks for having all this "time" on your hands. I love this entry especially as I'm a Big Brown fan. The time of Brown is nigh. All comers beware!

ryanmoseley,

I'm getting paid. Don't be too honored.

But thanks for the kind words. And thanks for reading and commenting. Keep 'em coming.

When Big Brown ran the FLA DBY 1 second faster from post 12 than Barbaro ran, and with War Pass out, I see why Dutrow is so sure. I guess my 200 to 1 Future bet at the Venetian has them a bit worried! Also only 9 horses in the last 100 years have raced with only 3 starts so that arguement is a bit warped. I am with Randy Moss and Gary Stevens. Go Big Brown.

Justin

Did you get a good look at him? I was listening to Carolyn Conley from HRTV on At the Races and Beyond yesterday and she said he looked great, like a superstar.

I'm still not sure what to think of him, and everything Colonel John does suggests he might in fact be the one to beat.

My big concern with Brown's figs are the fact that he set them with open lengths. I tend to down-grade favorites that have set high Beyers while winning with by 4 or 5 lengths. I can't remember if I read about this phenomenon from Beyer or Davidowitz, but others have recognized that sometimes these figures can become inflated when when a classy horse destroys a field of platers. There's no doubt each of these horses is making the class jump of his career, but I think Dutrow might be over-estimating his chances here.

Anyway, more importantly, did you see him?

How do you get your job? Getting paid to be at the derby sounds like quite a gig. I've got the name down apparently.

The fact that Big Brown beat Barbaro's time is fairly impressive, especially from the 12th post. However, the track was incredibly fast that day. He still only got a 106 Beyer. Of course, that's still above the rest of this group. It'll be interesting to see him challenged. I wonder when the last time was a Derby winner won wire to wire? I think Dutrow made a big mistake not training him at Churchill for a bit. I think he gets beat, but by whom? One of probably 10 suspects. I think this year is probably the hardest to even narrow down that I can remember. I'm just going to stick with my future bet on Court Vision and hope he is sitting on the best race of his life.

afarrar,

Yes, I saw him in his stall yesterday and on the track today. He looked good to me, but most of the good ones look good.

justin9976,

I have no idea how I got this job. I don't ask questions.

bigbrown134,
take gary stevens comments with a grain of salt about big brown, he's an advisor or v.p. of IEAH stables, respect the heck out of him, but he may be biased.

justin9976,
It's been 6 years since a horse went wire to wire in the Derby. 2002 War Emblem. Prior to that, Go For Gin in 94.

Justin,

When you were at Harbucks were you pretending to write something important on your laptop? That always impresses.

Anyway, as someone who has lived in KY for the 31 and 3/4 years of his life, I know how the weather can change on a dime (Derby '04 anyone?). The only thing that is certain is that as soon as my azaleas start to bloom, it will frost the next night. Therefore, yesterday was not an omen. It was Mother Nature behaving like clockwork to kill the color in my landscaping.

Also, as someone with an English degree, I spent my entire college career coming up with BS interpretations. Well, here's a different take on Big Brown's arrival. First of all, he arrived early in the afternoon off-schedule. That means he will move to the front of the field Saturday on a suicide pace. He arrived in the midst of a change of climate. I've already told you that the change of climate was due to my azaleas, not Big Brown. We also know that Louisville is a major air-hub for UPS. Therefore, one can ascertain (English crap) that Big Brown's arrival is just as significant as one of the hundreds of UPS arrivals flying into the city. So, to recap, Big Brown will go to the lead early and wear down, a la Hard Spun. He had no effect on the weather, and his arrival is comparable to a multitude of in-coming UPS flights on any given afternoon in Louisville. It's been a while since I was in a college classroom, but that's pretty good BS, right?

Too bad I don't get paid for my interpretations. Yeah, Justin, I'm jealous.

justin ... i think its about time someone on this site started talking about this weekend's forecast ... rain looks probable for friday and possible for saturday ... so there is at the very least a real possibility of not having a lightning-fast track ... how does this affect big brown's chances? ... obviously a sloppy track would really prove chaotic for the 'cappers ... only pyro and ekati ran in the juvie ... pyro was certainly coming ... ekati was spinning his wheels ... then you have visionaire's win in the gotham ... which came against a decidedly awful field ... decidedly awful (that had to be repeated) ... at least he was flying which is a positive ... but other than those, not much else ... if anyone has any revelant sire information on off-tracks, it would be greatly appreciated ... thanks for all the updates justin ... keep them coming ...

oh yeah ... toss in smooth air's nice hutcheson score in there as well ... although it should be noted that the bloodstock journal mentioned this morning that the same black cat that justin saw seems to still be following him around ... very scary ...

and i guess z humor ran in the juvie ... but i bet even bill mott forgot he is running in the derby ... the horse isnt worth mentioning ... big truck ran up the track in the hutcheson ... but he's another complete toss despite the bullet this morning ... the horse just looks like he is having to exert himself too much in all of his works ... a lot of head movement ... doc had an n1x score in the fg slop ... thats all i think ...

I think if the track isn't lightning fast it actually helps Big Brown. The track shouldn't be so hard so his quarter cracks will be ok. The only way Big Brown is going down is if he's hurting.

full...of ...fire,

Bill Mott did not "forget" about Z Humor. He has run well respectably throughout his career against some of the best. Don't think for a second that Mott ever forgets his horses. To say that is just ignorant

Big Brown, I will have a key with him with a few horses under him in the tri and super, but I don't believe he is the winner, I have been a Pryo believer for a while now, the BG was a total shocker, I can't find an excuse that totally satisfies me on what happened. I watched the video of his workout and I am on the wagon fully again, that was a nice work and he looked like he wanted more. I also watched D OF C video and that one was impressive, that is a live longshot fellas, mark my words on that one! He looks live as h### to me. I would feel more comfortable with Pryo if BB gets post 20. I believe Pyro will hit the board even if he doesn't win, BB will not hit the board if he don't win, I think and that is all just my opinion but right now I am entertaining the idea of Pyro in all 3 spots in the tri, with all, I think that is 342 dollars for a 20 horse field in the win spot and 1026 for all 3 spots covered w-p-s. Until the draw I will just read and absorb everyone's knowledge in here. Justin, any whispers of Pyro or Dennis of Corks work up there? Good Luck to all. Anthoney

This IS a fantasically, difficult field to call, especially right now before the PP draw, but you know, everything aside, I really hope this IS Brown Town this Saturday and I hope he brings it to Pimlico and Belmont. This horse BLEW ME AWAY in his past 3 races...Triple Crown...maybe, just maybe, this year...

Be seeing you in that storm at Belmont...

Jen - NY BB Gal

hey dew! what, you're at the Derby? really? i didn't know you even liked horses. just kidding. ryan clark sent your blog to me, so i thought i'd comment and say hello. glad to see you're doing what you love and getting paid for it! heard you shaved all your hair off too -- wtf? hope all is well. give me a call sometime you're up here in NOVA. still have the same #. peace out!

kelly

fulloffire,

Good point. We should be ready for anything. Anyone know where I can get some free Tomlinson Ratings on these contenders?

Antman,

I disagree with you and everyone else on Denis of Cork. Here are just a few things I wrote about him earlier this year:

"I'm not a big fan of DOC. Everyone is so high on him, but who has he beaten.

Sierra Sunset is the only rival worth mentioning. But he couldn't handle those Cali 3-year olds in January.

Then you look at Unbridled Vicar. May have finished dead last at Fair Grounds.

So Denis of Cork, not for me." - 3/20 Looking for Depth, John Asher

"I don't think that he bounced in his last at Hawthorne. He ran exactly how I expected, he lost. Recapturetheglory and Z Humor were not lucky to beat him that day, they are just far superior horses." - 4/21 Longshot the Sequel, Mac McBride

"prior to the illinois derby, DOC was the most overrated horse on the derby trail. Not only do I believe that he won't hit the board, i will go as far as saying that he does not belong in the field. if you are looking for a live longshot, others seem more likely." - Longshot the Sequel

I just think that those who are backing him now were the ones who got caught in the hype earlier in the season. DOC really had no business being ranked so high earlier in the season.

Jen,

Triple Crown maybe this year... okay... but if it happens it will be Colonel John. Hey, gotta support your horse. I'm in agreement on the DOC comments that he won't win. Believe he's overrated some and overhyped. Yes he's looked good in his workouts... but that's all they are... workouts. His lack of foundation will likely do him in.

Big Brown has looked the monster getting easy leads on the front end, and perhaps he'll cope with what is shaping up to be a speed duel and draw off. He might be that good.

Wagering based on pedigree can really backfire but that being said, some pedigrees jump out. Love Tiznow on top in Colonel John, and Court Vision's second dam produced none other than A.P. Indy and Summer Squall, classic winners both. Ignore this breeding at your peril.

Wow. I'm on record in the blogs taking a stand against BB. But what a beautiful racehorse he is... and as Mike Welsch of DRF put it "he glides over the CD surface". Granted, it was just one gallop around the racetrack but this guy's gallop is deceptively fast and he couldn't be doing it any easier. Thanks to the KD.Com site for video access to the works and gallops... its fantastic. Still sticking with CJ and Z Fortune for the win but just looking at BB does give one pause.

Hey Potato, I agree 100% with you, I don't like him for the win at all. I kind of was thinking like Bluegrass Cat, could fill out the bottom of the tri and supers, just looking for a long shot to hit 4th or 3rd for that case. You are right he has beat no one. I was just going with a hunch, but I do like the possibilities for 3 or th. everyone wants to use Smooth Air, not me, although If I don't get the winner I would be rooting for him if he is anywhere near the front when it counted. What a story that would make. I am in search of some bombers got one for me Potato, I also kind of like Anak Nakal for some reason on the bottoms of my exotics. Who is everyones big bomber. We all no one will hit the top 4. Antman

Hey Potato, I agree 100% with you, I don't like him for the win at all. I kind of was thinking like Bluegrass Cat, could fill out the bottom of the tri and supers, just looking for a long shot to hit 4th or 3rd for that case. You are right he has beat no one. I was just going with a hunch, but I do like the possibilities for 3rd or 4th. everyone wants to use Smooth Air, not me, although If I don't get the winner I would be rooting for him if he is anywhere near the front when it counted. What a story that would make. I am in search of some bombers got one for me Potato, I also kind of like Anak Nakal for some reason on the bottoms of my exotics. Who is everyones big bomber. We all no one will hit the top 4. Antman

Antman,

Good clarification. I guess I could see him finishing 4th because in this field I could basically see anyone finishing 4th. I will probably use ALL in the 4 spot if I play a superfecta.

How about Z Humor making a splash to finish 3rd? You could make a case to toss his Sam F. Davis and his FOY. In the Sam F, he was coming off a layoff and it seemed like he didn't take to the track (happens a lot with shippers to Tampa). In the FOY, it was just 7 days later and he still ran a respectable 4th. He didn't lose by much to Pyro in the Champaign as a 2-yr-old and his running style is probably better suited here as he will be sitting just off the 5-6 leaders. Seems to be on an improving pattern also.

Justin: Do you know if Cool Coal Man is going to work again before the derby? Last work I know of is Apr. 24th. Before the blue grass, they moved up his work b/c of rain (he worked at CD) & he worked 9 days before the race. I was using that long gap (along with Desormeaux's mysterious comment) as a possible explanation for him coming up short in the blue grass. And I was hoping to see a work closer to the derby. How's he look on the track?

Big Brown yes he does have our attention and I do believe he will be in the top 3. (Possible win if its a fast track)
Very nice colt.. He has a presences thats for sure BUT....

Pyro has the experience and knows how to handle a sloppy track (if thats the case)so dont take that away from him, he IS atop contender folks.

Jeff: Cool Coal Man worked today. You can see all the works here on this site.

Barbarazitariat,

I enjoyed your take on Big Brown's arrival and the weather.

Some thing aren't quite as open to interpretation.

I guess we will see on Derby day how Big Brown does.

As for Hard Spun, how is pulling away from 18 other horses to clear the field by
almost 6 lengths at the wire "wearing down"? HS ran the others near him to the back of the pack and began to open up on the rest of the field turning for home. If the rail did not miraculously open up, Hard Spun wins the Derby in 2007. SS had to go up and catch HS, the horse was NOT coming back to the pack. You need to go back and look at last year's Derby again (regardless of how close you live to the track).

BB looks to me to be able to do at least as much against this field. But look around-where is the Street Sense type horse to run him down? Col John? I don't know, he takes longer to get moving than the nimble SS. Col John moves more like Curlin.
Its a one of a kind race, but sometimes the best horse does win, especially one who can make his own trip. They have breen breezing BB under wraps. BB may be ready to roll. I look to find other value but the horse is very talented and looks great.

And of course, if Pyro is firing like he did in LA. he could factor here. It is 1.5 furlongs longer, however. And who he beat is troubling, save Z Fortune. Still, Pyro could factor here late and is kind of forgotten.

kelly_derrick,

Long time, no talk. How the H-E-double toothpicks are ya?

jeff,

I think Cool Coal Man is done working. You can see him by checking out the Works Board on the home page.

Geronimo,

Those Fair Grounds fields were the best of the Spring in my opinion. Z Fortune, Visionaire, Tale of Ekati, J Be K, Yankee Bravo. It is not much, you are right about that, but it's not too shabby and is comparable if not better than fields in other preps.

rimott ... obviously i was trying to make a point about z humor with a funny comment about bill mott forgetting that he was running ... if you didnt catch the humor in it, well then shame on you as well ...

Justin,

Sounds like you do have alot of time on your hands but all that time sounds like alot of fun as well. I have pretty much made up my mind to key off on colonel john. I am just still a little confused as to how i want to use him and how much i want to invest. I am going to put him in the exacta on the top and bottom and put him in the trifecta with 7 or 8 other horses. If you have any ideas for me i would surely appreciate them or if you want them to be confidential you can email me at timflute@yahoo.com. Enjoy the rest of your week in louisville and good luck in your wagering

Big Brown, Shmigbrown. Visionaire will be flying at the end and Big Brown will turn his big brown head to see a sizable red and green V whip by.

Yeah he does look good, and Kent D. says he is the best horse he's ever ridden...And I think that Kent D. believes that.

Slot33, just emulate Justin's exacta strategy by betting the Colonel John, Big Brown Z Fortune exacta box with conviction and you will be covered with the horses you like, and you'd still make a little money if it went Big Brown Colonel John 1-2, I think.

The buzz surrounding Big Brown sounds familiar......reminds me of Bellamy Road in 2005.

He powered into Churchill as the most dominant Derby prospect in history. He won his last two prep races by more than 15 lengths, set a track record in the Wood Memorial, and achieved a 120 Beyer. He finished 6th in a memorable meltdown.

I'm glad Big Brown didn't run a 120 last time out, because if he did he would be a bounce candidate. Bellamy Road was an easy toss, Big Brown is not.

I have looked at so many videos the last 2 or 3 days I could almost tell you where every horse finished in every race. But one thing is certainly clear, the two fastest closers are Colonel John and Pyro. If BB get the lead as most of us think, It will most certainly be one of these two that run him down, if thats possible. One thing that I feel certain of is that the fractions will be fast and ever who has a chance to catch BB will have to either be close to the 1st pack, BB will not be in a pack as he will be out front on his own, or the rail will have to open up as it did for Street Sense last year. I see only three horses have a chance to win, BB, Pyro or Colonel John. But for 3rd or 4th, don't count anyone out. Remember last year when eveyone dismissed Imawildandcrazyguy and the super paid 18,000.00 dollars off a tri that paid 220.00 dollars. Good Luck!

What can Big Brown do for me!

GO FEDEX! at least my money will be deliver on time and I don't have to stand in a long cashier line with everyone else.

Colonel John

Big Brown's impressive victory in the Florida Derby caught my attention, however, Big Brown's sprinter pedigree and lack of seasoning concern me. Big Brown will likely be the favorite, offer no betting value, be pressed early by Bob Blackjack, who set the world record time at 6 Furlongs earlier this year, then, go toe to toe with Colonel John, finally, finishing strong to hold off the fast closing Pyro and Court Vision. After only three starts, Are we asking too much of Big Brown? In my opionion, Big Brown's best chance to win the roses will come with a sloppy track. Big Brown changes leads very well, and with a sloppy track, if he get's out of the gate clean, is less likely to get banged up jockeying for position. On a fast strip, Colonel John looks like the horse to beat.

If BBJ wants to run with BB, so be, but 6+4 don't add up for BBJ. I think he'll come up about 2 short and proably finish 19 or 20th.

Geronimo,

"Wear down" may have been a poor choice of words (so much for an English degree). HS did not necessarily wear down last year, but he didn't have anything for Street Sense when he came rolling by. HS is a talented horse with lots of grit and he showed it last year.

As a matter of fact, BB may be more like HS than people realize. People will want to compare him to Curlin which is natural, but BB's style more closely resembles Hard Spun, don't you think? That's what I was trying to get at anyway. BB probably has more talent than Hard Spun, but those quarter-crack issues concern me.

I can see Colonel John being Street Sense to Big Brown's Hard Spun. I think the Colonel's turn of foot is a little better than people realize. He's so long that it makes him look less "quick". After watching his workout, he can pick it up and get down on it fairly well. It will be a matter of where he'll be placed when he decides to make that move and if there's any room to go.

Can anyone tell me if it is a $1 or $2 staight trifecta minimum on Derby Day?

Pyro = Street Sense

i'm doing well, mr. dew. married, fat and asian. i'm not really that fat.... just fatter. working for a realty management company selling waterfront properties to rich people. you up this way anymore? last i heard you were in florida. i'll be cheering for Big Brown b/c he's BROWN. take care dude!

Based on simple Body Types, Big Brown and Hard Spun are very similar horses, both muscular and perfectly conformed. They both are strong runners with long effortless strides while carrying their heads nice and level. Big Brown might be a slightly larger version. Hard Spun was very very good though, both sprinting and routing, and he'd tower over these. He never tried the turf, but I think he'd have loved it.

Street Sense was a perfectly balanced colt. Not huge, not small, but quick, and athletic, like a point guard. There is no Street Sense in this field, but Visionaire has similar but lesser build and similar darting running style. Gayego is also similar in build and athleticism but doesn't run the same.

Honestly, the first thing I saw about Adriano is that he looks and strides exactly like Curlin at this time last year. He doesn't have the same brilliance, and his stride is NOT Curlin-like on dirt. On turf though, he lowers his head and reaches with long strides like Curlin. On dirt, Dennis of Cork has a similar stride, but he doesn't carry nearly as much muscle.

Colonel John is absolutely gorgeous. If the Derby were a beauty pageant... He looks like Empire Maker.

Pyro is built long and with short legs. His stride is a bit odd and low to the ground, but he uses his length and reaces well. His short legs give him good agility though he may need to take 2 strides to CJ's or BB's 1. His build and running style remind me of the incredibly talented sprinter Lost in the Fog. RIP. Pyro, however, is equally good going long. How long we'll see.

Derby Beauty Contest:
1) Big Brown
2) Colonel John
3) Adriano
4) Gayego

No Mr. plavixman, everything from California has made the transition to dirt from synthetic.

BBJ will make the transition as well and Colonel John work say's he KING. You can count on all west coast horses running huge in the Derby. They have absolutely rule the prep races. It would not be a surprise if they run 1-2-3.
Thus Far the trend says include them in all wager

Sierra Sunset (Winner)
Gayego (Winner)
Behindatthebar (Winner)
Yankee Bravo even slice a piece of cheese (purse) in the Louisiana Derby.

BBJ and Colonel John figure to make everyone life a little bit harder.
Gayego is back for more.

Justin:

Re: your Triple Crown Fantasy.

It's not merely a question of disagreeing with you, it's the almost total absence of logic, especially where Fu Peg is concerned. Y'remind me of the legions of Jeremy Shockey fans in New York, who insist, with reams of evidence mounted aginst them, the Giants "need" Shockey at tight end this year. The glib notion that "if" he had won in Maryland, the third leg was his, is just that - a glib notion. And to promote him as a serious TC contender when he won only one leg, then give short shrift to horses who won a REAL WORLD two legs (Real Quiet beaten the narrowest of margins when he might have benefitted from a more patient ride and then, same trainer, War Emblem, who won the first two HANDILY, lost any chance at Belmont with a horrendous start, then suggest anyone who thinks he might have had a chance had he not done so really doesn't belong in the conversation just adds to the unreality. Also perplexed at the absence of indicators where my all-time fav, Smarty Jones, is concerned. Jock made tactically supportable decision not to let speed get away. Cost Smarty much reserve at the end of crushing grind. Why "should" he have won that day? Race set up perfectly for the quality runner, Birdstone, fresh and ready, not the worn-out and valiant people's choice.

And I continue, along with William of Occam, to look for the simplest explanation for outcomes. Point Given attended a torrid pace on a torrid day. He was the only horse anywhere near the pace to finish anywher near the top, as my old brain recalls.
Agree with whoever (sdi1958?) lamented the choice by jock (Stevens, I think, whose sense of having "the best horse" often served him well, but sometimes blinded him that even the best horse is subject to all other racing dynamics) to attend that killer pace.

Also, nice work by Derbyme on that topic.

Thanks guys.

(Posted here 'cause "spam" nonsense continues, unexplained, when I tried to put it where it would better be.)

lehigh58,

When did I suggest that those who thought War Emblem had a shot don't belong in the conversation?

Andy Beyer says at DRF.com online chat that Colonel John has not run big in a race yet, got the BSFs he deserved of 95 or so because the pace was so slow, leading to the stupid final times. He also says he is tossing CJ. Indicates he is vunerable and over rated. Also plans on tossing BB. Lack of Experience. Says the entire field is "bleep", and may be looking for value in tri exotic combos.

I also agree with those who posted to say BB is sort of like HS in action, form, etc.

Both tall horses, both have an air about them.

I do think BB may be a freak, however. He does not have a sprinter's pedigree, is double crossed to numerous stamina horses including Round Table, Roberto and Lear Fan. Also has 2nd dam and 5th dam who are double copy mares who probably have passed the LH-X enlarged heart gene from War Admiral and Round Table to BB through their female lineage.

If that is the case, he may just win despite everything else Saturday.

Big Brown reminds me of Bellamy Road. Both were called "freaks" and hyped by the media. Both came into the Derby as the most inexperienced in the field. Both won their 3-year-old allowance debuts at Gulf Stream by wide margins. Both won their first 3-year-old stakes races impressively and on the front end (Bellamy Road won the fastest Wood ever and equaled Riva Ridge's track record).

On the pedigree front, Big Brown is inbred top and bottom to Damascus. Damascus is in Bellamy Road‘s third generation. Damascus has not appeared in any Derby winners pedigree for the last two decades. A successful old handicapper pointed out the Damascus omen to me in Bellamy Road's pedigree and I laughed at him. I won't make that mistake again.

Damascus is also in Colonel John's fourth generation.