The Elusive Crown

Forget the Fusaichi Argument. What was the excuse for his Breeders Cup Classic flop as the 6/5 chalk? I am no casual race fan. But to me, Real Quiet should have won it. 4 length lead coming down the stretch of the Belmont to get nipped by a whisker at the wire. And if you are going to throw Point Given in there, then what about Afleet Alex? Same argument. Anyway, back to the 2008 Derby insight

Justin,

(Sigh) Thank god. I thought that was going to lead to a praising of Big Brown.

All,

At Churchill today, I think there is an interesting long shot in the 7th, MC50k.

I think the 5, Righteous Tiger, is worth a play at 15-1 ML. John Fahey is winning at 19% clip in 3rd off the layoff. As most of you know, I absolutely love the polytrack to Churchill angle. Street Sense? Hard Spun? On top of that he is going down in distance and carrying 7 lbs less than some others. And he is ranked 3rd in Brisnet Prime Power. I think if the 5 gets out to an uncontested lead he could wire this field and I think I'll take the chance that the lead is uncontested and play him.

Justin, I'm with you on Fusaichi Pegasus, but he was a little bit fragile and everyone was always worried about something going wrong, and it did in the Preakness. He should have been an ever bigger favorite in the Derby that year, he was truly a standout. Point Given, in a way, yes, he eventually got there, but he wasn't ready for the Derby and Monarchos was. Monarchos was ready for the race of his life on Derby day, and despite Point Given being close to the front, I still believe Monarchos would have won that race because he was at his career best that day.

Silver Charm was the first Derby that I won as a gambler, so that one is always a great memory. What a great race and I guess Silver Charm may have made his move a little bit early in the Belmont, but I've always though of Silver Charm being having a better career than Smarty Jones.

Alysheba was a nice horse that won the first two legs in '87 and then the Belmont came up a little wet and he didnt handle it well at all....but ran great in future breeders cup events and was very tactical....and Mccarron fit him like a glove........another strange one if you will was Spend A Buck....he won the derby and skipped the Preakness to run the Haskell because of a bonus they put up........And a barbaro-like ending for Charismatic and Chris Antley jumping off at the wire to hold his hind leg as he broke down nearing the wire after winning the first two legs...and just a few races back he was a $62,500 claimer.....but he peaked just before the derby and almost made history........

Justin you said best chance to win, not the best horse.
If your talking about best horse then my pick would probably be Point Given, Barbaro, Afleet Alex or even Curlin. But if your talking best chance i think it was Smarty Jones. I thought he faced weak opponets compared to other years. He won the derby in a time of 2:04 which is week even thought the track was muddy, and have everything going for him to win the belmont, he just didnt get it done.

Point Given is one of the best three year old's of my lifetime. But there was only one horse that could have beaten Monarchos on Derby Day and that would have been Secretariat circa 1973.

the triple crown isnt easy or we would have a lot more winners....a horse has to stay healthy and it is 3 races of the highest quality in 5 weeks...and it ends up with 1 and 1/2 miles at the Belmont....which is no wonder why "fresh" horses often deny the crown to one who was game enough to enter them all....maybe the triple crown should require that only derby entrants can enter the other legs to avoid the fresh horse argument........but anyone that thinks a horse had an easier time winning his triple than others is mistaken....one must be good everytime out....look at Secretariat.....he only won the Belmont by 31 in world record time...so no matter what the competition..he was definitely at his best.

and just an add on.........Fusaichi Pegasus was a bad actor and was his own worst enemy....if he had been a bit mellower,he might have never lost.......I was talking to Kent D. at Hollywood Park after he won the derby on Fu Peg and I asked him how he knew Fu Peg would rate because all of his races had been on the lead or very close to the pace....Kent said he was a push button horse and he was sure he could take him back and still be effective...a very heady ride by K.D......

Risen Star - didn't have quite enough foundation to take the Derby. He got no respect after taking the Preakness, but proved his worth in the Belmont.

EIGHT BELLES DRAWS WAY OUT........HOWS THAT FOR KARMA MR PORTER I HOPE HE DRAWS POST 20 TOMORROW WITH HIS NO CLASS SELF!

Kentucky Oaks (G1)

$500,000, 1 1/8 miles, 3 yo f, Churchill Downs, May 2

Horse, jockey

1. Golden Doc A, Kent Desormeaux

2. Absolutely Cindy, Julien Leparoux

3. Awesome Chic, Robby Albarado

4. Elusive Lady, Eibar Coa

5. Rasierra, Jamie Theriot

6. Country Star, Rafael Bejarano

7. Little Belle, Rajiv Marav

8. Proud Spell, Gabriel Saez

9. A to the Croft, Calvin Borel

10. Bsharpsonata, Eric Camacho

11. Pure Clan, Edgar Prado

12. Eight Belles, Ramon Dominguez

not much has been mentioned about Golden Doc A....anybody like her at all....she's run some strong races....It would be ironic if Eight Belles drew post 20...or the rail..........back to Kent D.........with all the talk about pace in the derby...would anyone be surprised if K.D. took Big Brown back and tried to save some for the stretch.....

I love Golden Doc A. She's a really game filly. I love the ones that give 100% each time. I don't know if she can win at the distance but I'll be rooting for a Desormeaux Oaks Derby double! On the issue of Triple Crown winners, Spend a Buck, Point Given and Afleet Alex. The jock on Point Given read the pace like he was illiterate. With a sensible ride he may have beaten MOnarchos who admittedly ran the race of his life.

Spend A Buck ran in the Jersey Derby for a huge bonus in 1985, not the Haskell. Hence the bonus program started by the Triple Crown series in the late 80's.

Cdpotato4

Righteous Tiger ran 2nd by a neck. Very nice handicapping.

He was beaten by the chalk ridden by Albarado.
Your horse led until deep stretch before giving way by a neck, $52 ex, $214 tri.

Thanks smallpaul. It's too bad he couldn't hold on because that would have been a nice start to the late P4. I still got it going though with Callie's Joy in the 9th and 1, 2, 6, 10, 12 in the 10th.

I'll take the $10 to place and the $52 exacta though it would have been awesome if he won!

Spend a Buck is history's forgotten freak horse.

His Derby wire to wire setting fractions as he did was truly unbelievable.

The ultimate catch me if you can speed horse. And in the Derby, nobody could.

If Bob Black Jack doesn't take to the dirt, and his workout was so-so, Gayego has no plans of gunning to the lead. That leaves Recapturetheglory. What horse will pressure BB? Someone better, or this is BB Derby time.

woops...guess I just lost the P4 in the 3rd leg, Callie's Joy finished 3rd.

BtAffair........I do all my blogging from memory...and at 60....sometimes details are off....but you get the idea....it didnt seem important to Spend A Bucks connections to try for triple crown......

Justin,
Thanks for the great topics, this is one I've been waiting for someone to ask about for years. This also has a way of coming around full circle. It's a shame you couldn't at least give an "Please Exclude the BID" for topic's clarity. There are many honorable mentions as listed above.
Here are my (3),
War Emblem - Knowbody will ever know what one of the worst breaks from the gate ever cost him. There wasn't anything that could cruise with him on the front that year.
Point Given - Probably the best 3yo I've seen since Silver Charm. His undoing was the same thing that could happen to BB this year. The rock hard CD surface vs. suspect brittle hoofs.
Silver Charm - Big heart, big game - one of the few times I saw Stevens get out ridden by someone in a big race. McCarron was smart enough to keep his horse wide enough so that SC couldn't get a look at him. As was even more true when BC Classic was run the next year. F. Dettori kept riding his mount so wide that fans in the grandstand could pet him as they went down the stretch. Leadin the rail wide open for Awesowm Again to steal it.

To all Spend Of Buck fans,
Does anyone remember that the favorite of that years Derby was an undefeated horse named Demons Begone. He was the "Speed Demon"(no pun) horse who had demolished his competition on the way to the Derby. He "Bled" so bad that you couldn't tell that P Days silks were yellow. he pulled up before the 1/2 and never raced again.

this year a triple crown seems, very unlikeley due to the inconsistency of all the horses this year(with exceptions to a select few)

if there was anyone it would be Big Brown Or Colonel John, probably CJ morebecause big brown has durability questions with me

What about Sunday Silence? Two of three TC races and the later BC win.

What about Rags to Riches?

badbettor ... i would eliminate sunday silence simply because they could have run the belmont 100 times and he would not have beaten easy goer once ... its that simple ... and not that it matters to the triple crown thing, but pat day's ride on easy goer in the classic is widely regarded among the worst of all-time ...

haircut ... you make a valid point about rags ... pletcher should definitely have run her in the derby ... however, even if she won the derby she would not have beaten street sense or curlin in baltimore two weeks later ... curlin's time would have beaten the preakness record had it not been raining off and on that day ... or if he hadnt nearly fallen out of the gate ... or if he couldve even run straight at that point in his career ... his massive burst to catch street sense is also the only reason he didnt defeat rags three weeks later as well ...

the one eveyone is missing is afleet alex ... narrowly missing at churchill to two out-of-nowhere horses on what jeremy rose openly admitted was not his best ride ... then demolishing the fields in maryland and new york despite nearly tumbling over at the top of the lane in the preakness ... afleet alex not winning the derby i believe is the main example of why the field should be limited to 14 starters ... with 20 horses there are too many variables and often the best horse doesnt win ... which is a shame ...

Hello Justin,
I have no doubt in my mind that Point Given was the best three year old that year and since that year.
What many people fail to mention about that years Kentucky Derby is how Point Givens walker, handler lost his hold on a balking Point Given which fell back very hard on his side, not just once but twice just before they walked on to the track. No I don't know how much damage (physically, mentally) that could have caused the three year old Point Given but I am sure that the energy he expanded balking and then the two falls he took landing on his side must have taken something out of him just minutes before the race.
When he came back in the Preakness I was very attentive to his behavior and jumped all over him as well as in the Belmont. By far this is the best colt I have ever seen but then again I have only been a race fan since 1993.

Others I think had a really good chance where Fusaichi Pegasus, Thunder Gulch & Silver Charm....

As far as this year, in what many consider a wide open race, It sure looks scary good for two colts, Colonel John & Adriano... Big Brown could turn out to be a monster but I think he needs seasoning and the other(s) lurking in the dark are Court Vision, Dennis of Cork, Pyro & Yes Visionaire, hmm if I could only afford to box these????$$$$$$$.. If I can get lucky on a Colonel to Adriano exacta, then I will be at a nice steak house that evening, yeahhhh, that is if I hit the All button for third...

SoCalAl

Sdi1958......sorry......Spend A Buck won in 85....DemonsBe Gone ran in 1987 when Alysheba won...I was there.

full of fire,

Understood about Afleet Alex and the large fields. The Crown is just much tougher these days for several reasons.

1) Large fields. 20 horses didn't used to run in the Derby, and in the old days, a good Derby winner would scare them away in the Preakness and Belmont. Nowdays, no one cares if they can win, it's more about being there. Funny Cide only faced 4, but that's the exception. Smarty Jones faced like 20, 12, and 12 or something. He was the best the shot, and I'm not sure everyone remembers how good he was. It's a shame he was retired with a bruise, because he was special. He ran a sub 2:00 10f in the Belmont which would have put him some 10 lengths in front of Secretariat at that point. He also didn't face a lot, but he was just getting good.

2) Fresh horses. This works 2 ways. Horses race less. They are not trained to run 3 races in 5 weeks. Few horses compete in all 3 legs. Facing a horse that skipped a leg trying to catch tired horses while keeping their usual schedule makes it hard. Empire Maker, Birdstone, Rags to Riches, Jazil all skipped the Preakness. Bernardini passed on the Derby. In the old days, they'd run between the triple crown races to stay sharp, and your horse wouldn't skip to try to catch tired horses.

It's tougher to win now. I'd say Smarty was closest, then Real Quiet, then Afleet Alex. I'd say Smarty and Point Given were the best to win 2. It's too bad we didn't get to see them face older or run at 4, they might have been truly special. People forget how good you are unless you can beat multiple generations. People talked about some of these in the super horse class, but if you don't get it done in Classics, you're quickly forgotten about. Mineshaft was supposedly one of the best ever on numbers, Invasor... If you do it in the Crown series but not against older or at 4, then you're at the mercy of how the rest of your crop fairs. Smarty and Afleet Alex are both rated as good, but perhaps not at the level of the truly great. Same with Bernardini. Who knows how good they might have been? Never got a chance to really guage. They were retired thinking their legacies were safe.

One exception: Ghostzapper did not run in a triple crown race, but he is widely regarded as one of the best ever. He was ridiculous. I thought Smarty, Bernardini, even Afleet Alex had the chance to be that good. Point Given might have been that good but never got a chance to show it. Ghostzapper could run 1:08s at will as easily as 1:48s and sometimes both in the same race. Can anyone do that this year? I think one of them can, though he's never sprinted so I have no way to prove that...

The late Secretariat was the greatest racehorse ever. No other horse can be mentioned in the same breathe with Big Red. The next best since would be Seattle Slew. I have only seen two 3yo's that rank with Seattle Slew. First would be his son, A.P. Indy, who I belive would have won the Triple Crown in 92 had he not gotton hurt. A.P. Indy won the Belmont Stakes, His finish time of 2.24, 0nly second to who else-Secretariat. A.P. Indy's Breeders Cup Classic win was run in record time for the Classic. Second would be Point Given. Post 18 cost Point Given the Triple Crown. Point Given would go on to win the Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Haskell, and Travers Stakes. Point Given looked alot like Secretariat, his running style and burst of speed, not to mention his Belmont romp. When it comes to 3yo SuperStars, A.P. Indy and Point Given are at the top of the list.

Mike, Mike, don't be so brutal on Mr. Porter, keep yourself clean, my friend.
Let Me! do the dirty work.

Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,

Okay, that will do it for now! nah! some more

Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20, Post 20,Post 20,

Justin & All

A very apropos title to this blog!

As a "youth challenged" handicapper whose first TC experience was hopping the clubhouse fence with Gary Hartlage and watching Chateaugay win the Derby, I have witnessed a number of memorable races and I must say, I like the Triple Crown just as it is!

No changing of race dates, no tinkering with the number of Derby entrants, no changes PERIOD!

The Triple Crown IS very elusive and, I believe, should stay that way. In my opinion there are good horses, there are very good horses, and there are fortunate horses. There have been Triple Crown Race winners from all of theses categories but the Triple Crown WINNERS are those fortunate few who possess both an abundance of talent AND racing luck. That is something that doesn't happen very often. It IS hard to overcome a bad draw in a large field(especially in a mile and a quarter race). It IS hard to turn around and run again two weeks later on a different track with tighter turns at a shorter distance and against horses who didn't race in the Derby and have been pointed to this race. It is even harder to then run a mile and a half race three weeks later(again against horses who didn't participate in the previous two legs of the crown). These three races require a UNIQUE combination of speed, stamina and racing fortune that make the triple crown special and I for one would like to see it remain so.

Don't forget that Street Sense was only a nose away from winning the first two legs of the triple crown. Closeness counts in horseshoes, I know, but he was very close and who knows what he would have done in the Belmont. Recently, I thought Smarty Jones came oh so close.

That premature move on Hard Spun by Pino put HS and SS at a disadvantage. Both had a quarter mile kick to die for when rating, but Curlin could grind as long as it took. By moving 1/8 of a mile too soon, HS took the closers with him and HS and SS both had the lead for a short time, one right after the other, and just when it looked like SS would win, Curlin bounded up and nailed SS at the wire. If Pino would have moved on the turn, there might have been a threeway finish. As it was HS ran strong for 1/4 miled, tired but hung gamely for third, SS ran for 1/4 of a mile and was running out of gas when Curlin nailed him.

Borel is an idiot! If he drifted out a tad he wins the race! There is no way they would have taken him down if there was minimal contact! I think he may be blind is his right eye!

I agree with those who include Smarty, Point Given, and Afleet Alex. Of the ones who ran all 3 races, they were the best to not have won. This may not be a popular choice but I'm gonna go with Barbaro as well. After that incredible Derby romp, I don't see how he loses to anyone in that field or to Bernardini the last 2 legs. He could've been the next Ghostzapper, I really believe that.

And Scott there are horses who rank right up there with Secretariat. Man O'War, Citation, and Kelso to name a few. To say no one is in the same breath as Big Red is ridiculous.

Also not too shabby was........Spectacular Bid.....Risen Star.....and everyone talks about Secretariat,AP Indy,Smarty Jones...Affirmed wasnt so bad was he???

Eight Belles will likely be in as she draws 6th...will probably get post 5 thru 10...BigBrown draws 16th

Jay Privman has the order listed in the form

geronimo ... NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO ... not so fast my friend ... in the future, if you are going to post something about a horserace, please watch it a few times and dont write anything so ASININE, IDIOTIC, UNINFORMED, and JUST PLAIN WRONG ...

now for the details ... first of all, please go to youtube and click on the 2007 preakness that was added by xerb1090 and is 6:47 in length ... and watch the overhead replay they show for the best account of the race ...

so listen here pal ... CURLIN was the one who made the PREMATURE MOVE ... then street sense came rolling by him at the top of the lane, seemingly leaving curlin STANDING STILL and drawing clear by two lengths ... yet curlin rerallied to nose street sense at the wire ... ALL OF YOUR INFO IS WRONG ... hard spun's fractions aided street sense's chances to win the race ... he was simply not the better horse ...

to summarize the race accurately, here goes ... STREET SENSE, the two-year old CHAMPION and KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER, by this time a seasoned veteran of NINE RACES, comes back two weeks later and runs a preakness that on time would have won ALL BUT THREE preakness' run at 1 and 3/16 miles (and arguably all of them considering it had been raining that day) ... yet was outfinished by eventual champion curlin DESPITE THE FOLLOWING ... 1) curlin NEARLY FELL out of the gate ... 2) at that juncture of his short, five-race career curlin COULD NOT EVEN RUN STRAIGHT on either the frontstretch or backstretch ... 3) street sense boldly BLEW PAST curlin ON THE INSIDE at the top of the lane, seemingly leaving curlin a beaten horse ...

GERONIMO PLEASE DO NOT COME WITH THESE WEAK, BASELESS ARGUMENTS WHICH ARE COMPLETELY FALSE AND OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY ... oh yeah, and watch the race a few times and maybe you will have an idea of what actually happened as well as some newfound respect for the best horse in the world right now ...

Imagine this, none of you believe in Curlin leading up to the Derby last year. All, and I mean ALL selected Street Sense. Everyone cash a ticket in May.

They are both great horses. I don't rate Hard Spun anywhere near their class and anyone who does, don't have a winning ticket to justify their position. Hard Spun was soundly beaten each and every time by one or the other.

Look, I don't mean to sound off, but wasted milk can't be put back into the glass. Curlin prove he was the best in the Breeders Cup and put to rest the divisional championship and horse of the year. The camp never dodge the competitions and made no excuses for his loses.

So let it go and move forward to this year.

Passionate bloggers.

So move forward, this is the year for 2008 three year olds.

Oh! and by the way! the best horse to ever live and race was RUFFIAN, she was never headed at any pole and gave her life on the field of play. Anyone who write differently, has issues for sure. No other thoroughbred can make this claim, no matter how they performed.

She will always be known as the greatest horse of all time.

barry ... no apologies for defending the truth ... i have no problem with geronimo bringing street sense into the discussion ... it is true that he was a nose away from winning the first two legs of the triple crown ... but surely you can agree that everything he wrote in his follow-up post describing the flow of the race is totally inaccurate ... and as i stated before i have no qualms about stating the real facts when someone posts a load of falsehoods ...

You can make the same arguments about Ruffian as I can about Barbaro. Both never got headed by anyone in a race that means anything. Genuine Risk?? Winning Colors?? Personal Ensign?? Azeri?? You gotta give me something