Elimination Round

Your insight is invaluable, but I disagree with one of your tosses. Denis of Cork is FIT. He doesnt need to run much if you listen to his trainer, He says it is hard to keep weight on his frame and he is fresh. Great workouts. And he hits the board. He's sitting on a monster race. Justin, Do you think Colonel John can actually make a big step forward after his Santa anita derby performance?

lewissuperpimp1,

I will have more to say about Colonel John today or tomorrow.

I agree with most of what you said, however, tossing Pyro to me is just not a smart move. Everyone/horse has a bad day, look at War Pass' effort in the Tampa derby vs the Wood. Maybe he didnt win, but you couldn't toss him because of one race. However there are many others to toss and its not based on one race.
I will bet or not bet on Eight Belles based on Prue Clan's performance in the Oaks. She is really the only horse of any statute that Eight Belles has run. If you look at Momba's running style, you will see that other than his maiden breaking race, she has not run very well on dirt, however has done very well on synthetics. He's a toss for me. BBJ, I feel, cannot get the distance. I have put together a list of eight horses I plan to use, Pyro, BB, Col.John, Gayego, Z Fortune, Tale of Ekati, Visionaire, and Court Vision. Like I said earlier, I will use Eight Belles based on Pure Clan's effort in the Oaks.
Everyone has to take a stand, and I guess that's mine.

Morning Justin I have been reading your posts over the last week. I'm sure you've seen Let It Ride, so based on that movie I'm gonna do a $1 exacta box with Smooth Air, Z Humor, Big Truck, Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Pyro, Adriano, and Anak Nakal if they all run, well get in the gate that is... I've been doing this Derby thing for a while and I tend to always go with history.. Here's my thoughts.

Keeping my fingers crossed that Big Brown gets TONS AND TONS of action. Throw those forms away and understand horseracing...

The forms due help a little but use some logic.. How many times have we heard about a lightly raced STUD horse that comes up short in the derby. He will be no different.

IMO one of the biggest problems leading into Derby Day are these Sythetic races now. WHAT DO YOU DO WITH THEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Colonel John shows no big numbers. Is it the surface or is he just not fast enough? Any horse that has never hit 3 digit byers gets tossed on my list.

However, based on his last work, I'll go with the surface, Tough call

How do you handicap that Blue Grass Race, simple, you can't.....Speaking of which what the all get out was Asmussen thinking sending PYRO there. Very confusing move and I wish I new the logic.

Arkansas Derby, was anyone in that race worth a lick other than maybe just maybe the top two... Very poor race IMO...

Over the last 50 years no horse who ran worse than 5th in their last prep has won the derby. There goes more than half the field.

How many Santa Anita Derby winners have won the derby in the last ten years... Just ask Brother Derek..........

The lack of 3 digit byers in this race is over whelming.

How many more years is a horse with lack of experience going to be bet and people keep saying theres always a first.

Just my take on things. Whats your thought

Guy who's hoping for 22 and change 45 and change 1:10 and change.

Here comes??????

You've done good with the elimination round, Justin. I do think that Pyro and Smooth Air have a shot at 2nd or 3rd though. As good as BB looks, I hope he gets pounded at the windows. Because I think Colonel John looks equally as good if not better on the CD surface (check his gallop this morning). Believe he's the most likely winner. I've also said I like Z Fortune for the win... but what I don't like is the way that Asmussen is babying him into the race. I know its because of the bounce factor but to me... I'd like to see more energy in his works and gallops up to the race. But, I guess that's why Asmussen is a top flight trainer and I'm a mere blogger. Will put less $$ on Z Fortune as I have $45 on him between pools 1 and 2.

COME ON 5 O CLOCK ESPN LIVE WITH THE DRAW I CANT WAITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

I've been looking at who Big Brown and Smooth Air have faced. Big Brown's only faced one horse in this Derby and it was Smooth Air. Smooth Air lost to Big Truck who I would say is a toss. I think Big Brown is going to be another disapointment.

Thanks Mike, I been trying all morning to find out where to see it on the net, never realized it was on ESPN.

Hey, does anyone know the order of the draw or are they not doing it that way?

Dew,

I understand you can't play em all and have to toss Denis of Cork. I have taken stands so far that I didn't want to have to. I hope more people think like you. It'll help him remain a longshot. The problem is that all the pro clockers have said he's had the most impressive work of them all. And this is not including the 5f drill which was supposedly mindblowing last week. Last year the most impressive work was Street Sense, the year before that it was Barbaro, keep going back and you'll find Smarty Jones, Monarchos and you'll even find that Giacomo had been working his socks off. I think you're missing the boat on this one. I know you're scared of him from your blog "Addition by Subtraction" and it's with good cause! He's a good horse that loves teh track, can hug the rail at pace and who will have your beloved value.

Justin9976

Nistle's Crunch came out of the Florida Derby to win an Allowance race and Hey Byrn also came out of it to win the Holy Bull Gr.3. The Florida Derby is one of the only races whose form has held up. Don't knock them based on that reasoning. There are plenty other good reasons to knock them.

plavixman,

Your eight sound almost exactly like mine. I'm still waiting to finalize afer the post position draw. I also planned to play Eight Belles or not after watching Pure Clan. After reviewing her races, however, I don't think Eight Belles has a chance to hit the board. She's been running her final 1/16s in decent time but shows that she's slowing down quite a bit. That's why I doubt her at 10f. Pure Clan needs more distance while Eight Belles should stick to 1 1/16. Just my analysis.

bdhguy,

Nice longshot exacta strategy. Why not right?

Agree with all your eliminations except Big Truck. Don't think he'll win, but expect him to hit the board (based mostly on superstition). Pyro and Denis of Cork worry me, but their last preps were just too bad to include them in my tickets.

Im glad no one is giving any love to Monba! Ill take the money! Everyone keeps talking about how Pyro bomed at the Blue Grass,...umm who won that race.