GayegOH-NO!!!

BB hahaah 16th pick http://www.drf.com/news/article/94122.html

You can forget speed it's going to be all on the outside. Pyro will end up next to his stablemate and break clean. It comes down to two possible horses, Pyro and Colonel John. I love this more than the derby trial. If Pyro gets a decent trip he'll win this thing, if not it's the colonel! If the filly can take some banging she'll be in the super. Take this to the BANK!!!

Looks like most of the speed is going to the outside, unless one decides on the 1 post. Justin, Gayego was my key to 3rd and 4th in the Super, and 2nd in the tri.Great choice, but post draw may change that.

Mike B....still like Pyro?

Well I hope everyone jumps off Gayego because I absolutely love him! There are always a few that I set in stone to play before the posts are drawn. He is one, the other is Pyro. I believe these are the best in this field and I will be laying them heavily regardless of post position.

12 have won the derby from post 1! That is tied for the most all-time with the 5 post! 2 have won from post 20! It is not like it is impossible!

Everyone run away from Gayego! Throw me 12-1!

Well Cdpotato, I think you are exactly right, and I plan to play it just that way. $198.00 puts them on the board in the tri, and that maybe the play of the day!

the effort to win from 1/2/19/20 is just too much to overcome, especially with a few one trick ponies in the way...

Especially if you get a 30-1 or 40-1 shot with them

Seriously, the posts are not as important as they are made to seem. The run to the turn is the longest in a North America, the difference in distance from the twenty running the hypotenous to the one taking the rail is almost nothing. If you don't panic, you can find a spot. If you don't break, it probably doesn't matter which post you get anyway. Gayego is fast enough to tuck into the front of the second group, right where he wants to be, and he'll be in the clear. Watch Stew Elliot's ride on Smarty Jones for clues.

I'm only gonna say it once: Big Brown.

plavixman,

It is always good to know that others share your opinions. It makes me more confident at the window.

How many of those winners from post one were with a 20 horse field? I think Gayego would still have a shot from 20 since he could , possibly get into the 2nd group of horses, which is where the winners tend to come from anyway.

Big Brown will probably be coming from the 17th spot. I think he's in trouble. He'll have to expend a lot of energy to get to the front, or he'll have to race behind horses, something he's never had to do. I didn't like him to win before, now I don't think he'll hit the board.

Let me guess Matz will put Visionaire in 8 because that is where Barbaro ran from.

Yall know these are not the post positions! This is the order of the draw. Some of you are talking about where horses are breaking from and you dont know which hole they are coming from.

Justin: I was quietly liking Gayego as well. This is not good. He will probably get the one hole. If recapture gets the two hole, which seems quite possible, it is even worse. As I recall, if you draw a straight line between the one hole & the home stretch, the one would run right into the rail. Therefore, it is even more important whether recapture is next door with his gate speed. Hopefully they'll show this on espn this afternoon.

Eight Belles, the other horse I like - and the horse that it seems to be fashionable to discard - will draw well. She's big (17 hands), she's run fast, she's working well, she's in good hands, & she looks to get perhaps the earliest run at the first group. Leave her out at your own risk.

As a longshot to hit the board, Big Truck is intriguing to me. Will draw well. If you put a line through the blue grass, I could easily see enough improvement from the tampa derby to finish 3rd or 4th.

Derbyme,

I hear you. I would DEFINATELY prefer Big Brown to be inside. There's nothing wrong with the 1 hole. The first quarter will be sub 23 and he can handle that. I have no doubt. Funny Cide's Drby gives good clues too. Watching Stormello getting hooked 5 wide into the turn was SCARY. I'm officially scared. Gaygo is betther suited to the outside. It would benefit him if he sits 5th-8th. If Big Brown goes in the auxillary gate I'm changing my bets. I think speed needs to be in the main gate. The TORTURE of having to wait so long....

I think Colonel John has to be the favorite for sure going in.
I also locked in on Big Truck @ 100/1 on the 23rd of April. He's now down to 25/1 on my book.
I think Anak Nakal could suprise as a long shot.
I'm looking at
1. colonel john
2. eight belles
3. big brown
4. big truck

Don't forget, Big Brown won from the outside post at the Florida Derby and no one had ever did that before. With the long front stretch at Churchill, Outside post will not be a problem for him, but I think it will certainly play havoc for some others, ie Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack.

Exactly Nothing has been drawn yet....

Sure horses have won from the 20 post before, but IIRC, that was before there were even starting gates as we know them now, and the last time it happened was in 1929. History certainly does not favor Gayego.

The posts are extremely overrated. Like plavixman said, Big Brown did what noone else could at Gulfstream. It is less about the post and more about the jockey. No matter what post you get, it is the jockey's job to overcome anything regardless of your horse's running style. The jockey has to put him in the right position and avoid traffic problems. And with Mike Smith aboard I am not worried in the least. He is one of the best in the field when it comes to 20 horses on the first Saturday in May! And I would even argue that he is better than Kent D because the horses Smith has piloted have not been of the same caliber.

I CANNOT THINK OF A JOCKEY I WOULD RATHER HAVE IN THE DERBY THAN MIKE SMITH!

Unless Jerry comes out of retirement that is

Is there anything harder a horse could have to do then circle speed right along side? The real speed in this race will be next to each other and way outside. Remember those horses have never gone 1 1/4 miles and to think they can do it running a sub 23 first quarter being 4,5 or more wide in the first turn is crazy! If Big Brown wins this race with only three life time starts he may turn out to of the greatest of all time! But I can't bet on it. Justin, throwout all the speed and help us find that 10k super! Trip wise I think the Colonel, the filly and Pyro will be sitting best.

Derbyme you're right!

I watched Smarty 4 times just now. The fact is there are 4 horses who could lead. Cowboy Cal, Bob Black Jack, Big Brown and Recapturetheglory.I don't know if you've seen Moss' pace figures on DRF but they show that Big Brown has been the fastest of all early in a race. Bob Black Jack's connections may want the lead as they've added blinkers and his early figures are due to increase with the switch to dirt from synthetics.

If Big Brown breals on the outside it's possible that he gets over to be second behind Bob Black Jack and go 2 wide into the turn. I say this thinking that he's just so much faster early than the rest of the field that he should be able to get over them like Smarty without over exerting himself. If he's on the inside he could make the lead or stalk, 2nd to 4th and save ground on the rail. Either way I'm happy. I'm more relaxed now. I'm stickng with Big Brown no matter what. Thanks for the recommendation. It helped my nerves.

Derbyme you're right!

I watched Smarty 4 times just now. The fact is there are 4 horses who could lead. Cowboy Cal, Bob Black Jack, Big Brown and Recapturetheglory.I don't know if you've seen Moss' pace figures on DRF but they show that Big Brown has been the fastest of all early in a race. Bob Black Jack's connections may want the lead as they've added blinkers and his early figures are due to increase with the switch to dirt from synthetics.

If Big Brown breals on the outside it's possible that he gets over to be second behind Bob Black Jack and go 2 wide into the turn. I say this thinking that he's just so much faster early than the rest of the field that he should be able to get over them like Smarty without over exerting himself. If he's on the inside he could make the lead or stalk, 2nd to 4th and save ground on the rail. Either way I'm happy. I'm more relaxed now. I'm stickng with Big Brown no matter what. Thanks for the recommendation. It helped my nerves.

Think Gayego's up against it if he breaks from 20. At least he has some chance out of the one hole. I don't see him holding up when the real running starts at the top of the stretch. Yes, this despite his good Arkansas run. I recommend the Gayego players switch to the winner... Colonel John.

Hey Potato, wasn't Giacamo in the 16 hole when Mike won with him?

I love all you Big Brown people!!! Have fun throwing your money away on a 3-1 shot in a 20 horse field. He has 3 lifetime starts in which he has beaten nobody(please don't give me Smooth Air either) while having everything his way on the front end. He's by a sire that is known for producing sprinters and look at his last quarter in the Florida Derby! 25 and change coming home just insn't going to cut it against this group. This horse will not hit the board.

My boy, Blackjack gets the 13th choice so he shouldn't be too bad off. The horse that I like (on your elimination list, and for no good reason) is Z Humour. (When you think about how often we go to the track and see horses that don't make sense in the mix-well this time, I gotta gut feeling and will include him in my gimmix.) Already got him in Pool 1 and as part of all others in Pool 3 (and what a pool 3 for 14/1 this year-Monba, Eight Belles, Cowboy Cal, and don't give up on Ana Nakal, graded stakes winner over the track.

I happen to agree Simpson. I think Vegas is going to make a fortune on all those betting on Big Brown. He's never even been hit by a clomp of dirt, so unless he wire's the field, which his pedigree doesn't suggest something he's capable, I think he gets beat. However, picking someone with a better shot is difficult. They all have serious flaws. But I think if you had say 200 dollars to wager, you'd be better served picking 4 horses you like at 10-1 or better then throwing it all on BB.

SIMPSON,

Your talking about a horse that had about a 6 length lead and has never had the whip placed on his rear end. I have been trying to find a horse that can beat Big Brown and I cant. His fractions have been faster and faster every race with him going to the lead and in the end him pulling away. Look at the last 20 years and the fractions of the derby. Fastest derby first couple fractions have been 22,44 or 45, and 109 all which have been won by closers. Only difference is, Big brows last two races, at distance, have been run in those fractions. The difference being, he set them, and he won pulling away. Big Brown will do some cooking all right, only problem for other horses is Big Brown never cooks himself. Now I just need to find an exacta to go behind him. Good luck to everyone.

Sportztech,

A 6 length lead on who? Smooth Air? If that makes you feel better, then good luck on Saturday.

I cannot understand the Big Brown supporters. He's the most inexperienced horse in the field. He has a disturbing lack of soundness in his pedigree, plus he has tender feet to top that off. And his tender feet have raced on nothing but grass and a dirt track that's 85.5% sand. As far as his race record is concerned, he's only faced questionable competition. He's won one stakes race (Curlin had two stakes wins going in to the Derby). He's never been challenged and never had dirt in his face. And now he's probably going to get a bad post position. That's too many negatives for me.

I love hearing all the opinions. Sounds like online trading PUMP and DUMP...
Lets be real..
1. It is all but guaranteed recapturetheglory is flying early. If BB or BBJ gets in fron it's either because racapture broke bad or BB/BBJ are FLYING early..... NOT GOOD. Don't forget Cowboy Cal though I beleive he may settle but who knows...
You can put the Shoe, Dela any of the old greats on Gayego he has no chance to WIN from post 17,18,19 or 20. If you're gonna rebut this make sure you have some RACE logic...

IMO and I don't like betting slow horses that have under triple digit byers but Visionare, Court Vision and Denis of Cork move may up based on the early drawing order... Those three will be my Tri and Super Keys..

My picks to win are either Colonel, Pyro or they I don't like fillies in this race Eight Belles..

What's with Sly Stallone staring at me on the blog home page in his buff-man pose?... Creepy.

Anyways, sportztech, BB felt the whip at least ONCE down the Fla. Derby stretch. Me thinks... or hopes... he'll be feeling it quite a bit come Sat. when Kent panics as his big bruiser starts running out of gas at the top of the lane. My gut tells me BB won't win, and also tells me he won't be ITM either. I've made no bones about the fact I'm a big Colonel John fan. Still contemplating whether to use BB at all underneath... or if its a waste of money. I'm sure I can get some recommendations on the site here.

The fact that the horse is training in bell boots three days before the Derby has to be a somewhat ominous sign for Big Brown supporters. This is not akin to Scat Daddy in bar shoes last year, but it's certainly a factor.

slot33,

I agree and in past derby races, speed horses rarely win and when they do the fractions are slow. Second, I totally agree with the fact he hasnt raced against anyone or in any big races besides the Florida. So for me, when I see this, I toss a speed horse like him aside and move on. My issue. You can race against crap horses, you can race in bigger races, but when a horse is not just winning in the fractions BB is winning in, but also SETTING them, and pulling away down the stretch, its hard to just think that all of a sudden hes going to die at the end. My beef, is that because he was raced lightly he might have a race in which he backs up. This is something that was said about curlin leading into the derby last year. But there was a huge difference between the horses. Curlin was a stalker and had never raced in a race with more then 8 horses going into the derby (BB ran at the 12 post in the florida). He got bumped and thrown around at the start and was still flying at the end to get third. As previous posters have said, BB has the fastest early figures of any horse in this race. So in less you foresee the derby cutting an opening 21 fraction ( NEVER, EVER, been done) then he will have the lead or be in a close second around the first turn cutting that 22 that he has cut in his three previous races. So in my opinion of course, in less some horse runs out of his mind, I dont see anyone catching BB.

Sportztech1,

I pray BB goes to the lead in 22 and change and 45 and change, he will be wobbling home as Pryo blazes right on by. If you would give me 22 & 45 fractions on any derby horse on the lead I would be happy I bet against him, a mile and a quarter is much different then 1 1/8th. On the other hand if he gets 23 and 46 and change and is on the cho cho it might be over. They got soccer on espn 2 instead of the draw, Soccer omg. Who cares.

Dutrow just said post position won't get him beat, I don't care where he draws, either this Dutrow cat knows what we don't or he is crazy.

I am going to key Pryo on top with 9 horse for the tri and probably 5 after him in the super. More to come. Got to watch the draw. Antman

Okay am I seeing this from above correctly? The Kentucky line with the Jockey silks?

Post 13
Bob Black Jack

Post 17-20
Cowboy Cal
Recapture
Gayego
Big Brown

9-10
Pyro and Colonel John draw side by side

and Cool Coal Man draws the rail of death

This a easy handicapping race. Eliminate post 17-20. The first quarter is ran in 45 2/5. Nothing will survive. Now Bob Black Jack is the dark horse, drawing inside the speed, may allow the cat trip instead of the pace factor. If he shoot for the lead, 17-20 goes wide into the turn. If he drop off, 17-20 still goes wide into the first turn.

Pyro and Colonel John both sits in the second tier of horses. Both are likely to make a run for the lead around the turn without any effort as the pace decades.

Bob black Jack should rate now that he's drawn the inside of the speed, so I put him in the second tier as well.

Forget about anything else in the race. They are completely out of positions and cannot make up the ground heading into the final turn.

Colonel John and Pyro will race in tandem and split left and right as the pace retreats. Bob Black Jack will likely run a nice race but can't keep up with Colonel John and Pyro stretch run.

Separate the top two from the field by 5 lengths at the wire.

We are going to get a spectacular closing battle the last 1/4 of the Kentucky Derby.

Look at the other horse in that picture. If you like Gayego so much, how can you hate Z Fortune? Look at him again since he got one of the money posts.

Great point Pat!!!! But there is only one problem and that is that COL JOHN is racing that day too!!!!! Might not be the best horse in the field but with that speed he will close very strong and pull away from Pyro and big brown followed by gallego and monba

I am not a Big Brown fan, yet... But I have to admit it would not shock me to see a big race off this guy. With that being said, all I will have is a savor bet from my picks to Big Brown and reversed. That should at least get my money back should he run in the top two slots and any of my picks run 1st or 2nd.
Now having said all that, Colonel John, unlike many who claim all these colts have flaws, has not shown any. He has been right there every single time. Now Andy Beyer and co have reduced beyer numbers because of the synthetics and all that, I say fuiii!!
Colonel has run well at other tracks and is working well on dirt as expected. Runs like his daddy and has the heart of the big Dinasour, that what I used to call Tiz Now. A grinder with decieving speed and a determinatoin to pass the colt in front of him. That is what I like about this colt. Now I also feel like Adriano, Court Vision, Big Brown, Colonel John and Dennis will all be with-in 5 lengths of each other. The question at that point will be class for the next quarter mile. All these can close in 12 and some small change for the 1/8's but how can you measure heart after a bumpy ride for a mile. That where we will find out just how tough these guys really are and I am willing to BET that a colt like the Colonel or Court or Adriano are seasoned in that area. Dennis and Big Brown are in my eyes still bein acid tested. Others who would not surprise me in the exotics are Visionair, Tale of Ekati and Pyro.. With all that said, don't forget to box...

SoCalAl

Agree with SoCalAl that Colonel John doesn't have any real flaws and that his Beyer numbers are deceiving. He looks like the true class in this field, a very consistent horse and looks to be handling the Churchill dirt just fine. My big worry with him is track condition, as his trainer expressed concern about a sloppy track (chance of thunderstorms forecast for Louisville on Friday and Saturday).

plavixman,

I believe Giacomo broke from the 10 hole.