Post #20? How do we feel about that?

Well, Post 20 is great news for me, I can't understand if you are going to send why not send from #2. Shortest distance for point A to B. I don't get it and I love it, he is off the top of any tickets I will bet. It is time to get serious now, we finally have the post positions. Crunch time baby.

Post 20 is last to load and then they are gone --no standing in gate--looks
good to me

Post 20 is last to load and then they are gone --no standing in gate--looks
good to me

I agree with you, Justin. Post 2 made more sense for Big Brown especially if he gets a clean break. There would have been no other speed near him that could keep up as I believe he's faster than Cool Coal Man or Eight Belles. Believe it would have been a big advantage for him to be on or near the lead and not lose ground.

As you say, it will be a mad dash from the outside and what if BBJ breaks well and goes for the lead? It seems almost certain that Big Brown will be somewhat wide entering the first turn OR have to expend more energy to get the lead or both. Really believe they made a mistake going with 20.

Too early for you to commit and tell us you're going with Gayego despite post 19? Or have you reconsidered and will you choose someone else? I'm imploring you to hop on the Colonel John bandwagon. I know, I know, he doesn't meet your criteria for value, however, if he wins at 4-1 and you have him on top in plenty of exotics... you can make plenty of $$$. Think about it.

There could have been a possibility of Big Brown being rated in this race, but now it seems at the 20 post he is going to have to go to the lead early and take it wire-to-wire. Although his last races are impressive, he has history against him because no horse has won from the 20 post, and it's very rare for a horse to wire the field on the derby. We'll see what happens, it should be exciting!

http://www.winningponies.com/results/picks/tips/Kentucky-Derby-2007.html

I believe you predicted this in your post after the FL Derby even though you were j/k.

How do you keep a head case to stay calm in post 2 while the others are loading, easy, you put him in post 20. Post 2 = la da de, la da de while Post 20 = ready, go

That's the only logic I see

Did you guys realize its only 2 ft further, in a straight line, from post 20 than post 10. When you got the speed, that't nothing. Big Brown to the lead and everyone else has to catch him, and a couple might.

I should have said to the first turn.

Justin, yeah Gayego is in deep trouble I think, coming off his career best and getting that post with those horses all around him...I respect the horse but I don't think so now. Big Brown's inexperience won't hurt him as he won't be stuck in traffic and he won't have dirt in his face so I think at least he has experience of breaking from the outside, loading last, dominating the race...At least they work around the inexperience and he is naturally fast enough to get position without having to be sent to the absolute front, necessarily.

Z Fortune finally draws well for the first time all year. I like his chances better than ever now.

big brown owners did this to make a statement. They are telling the world, we are the first ones to win the Florida Derby from post 12. We are the the first ones to win the Derby from post 20, and we will be the first horse in 30 years to win the triple crown.

Dutrow confidence is huge in this horse's ability to overcome odds. The way he looks in his training sessions at palm meadows, it wouldn't matter if he were to start from post 30. Destiny is Destiny
Big is Brown
Brown is Big
Kent is Money

see you in the winner circle :)

Might the reason for picking post 20 be that Gayego was last to pick and they felt he would be in post 1. Then there would be a made dash to front from both sides of BB. At post 20 there is no one outside of him and he can avoid all the dirt hitting him in the face. The problem is he has to circle 4 speed horses underneath him and I can't see that happening until they reach the backstretch. BB will get the front alright in 45 and change and thats just suicide. The trip horses will be the Colonel, the filly and Pyro.

Here is a stat for you, the derby has been won twice from the 20 post. On the other hand, 10 of the last 15 winners lost their last prep race. The worst performace before winning the derby was Thunder Gulch who finished 4th in the Blue Grass. Sound familiar Pyro folks.

I think Dutrow Jr. did the wise thing by choosing post 20 of what was left. I know some of the earlier posts have said this, but I'll reiterate that Big Brown will be the last horse to load (with the #10) and should get a good break. But even if he doesn't break well, he has no horse to his outside to pinch him off. The run to the first turn is a long one, so he will be able to use his speed to get a good spot by then. He also forced two other speed horses to choose posts to his inside.

If Dutrow Jr. had taken post #2 and Big Brown breaks slowly (after standing in the gate for 2-3 mins), then he will all of a suddent have a wall of horses in front of him and is now taken out of his game. If he breaks slowly from post 20, it will hurt his chances...but it would hurt his chances from any post because he wants to run up front.

If I'm a trainer who has a front running horse and I feel he's the best animal in the field, then I'm gonna keep my horse out of trouble and on the outside of other speed horses.

My concern about Big Brown is will he get the distance and be seasoned enough to beat Colonel John. CJ drew a great post and if he runs his race, I'm not sure Big Brown can win.

I'm thinking of keying BB, CJ, Court Vision, and Z Fortune in the 1 and 2 spots in a trifecta/superfecta. Now, who in the heck do I put in the 3 and 4 spots? Visionaire should hit the 3 or 4 spot on the board shouln't he? I'm also thinking of using Gayego, Monba, and Pyro.

I know what I need...someone out there tell me what you think the key prep race is. I fell like the Santa Anita Derby is the race with the way the CA horses have run lately. I'm not too sure what Big Brown beat in the Fla Derby, but he looks too good to leave out. The Ark Derby has typically been a good prep. Thoughts?

I know I've been obnoxious about Z Fortune all spring, sorry about that. I don't have any connection to the horse other than as a gambler...So there is plenty of room on the Z Fortune bandwagon.. welcome...lets make some serious loot this year! Maybe he would have looked even better than Colonel John on the Santa Anita track, he and Gayego are fast horses.....the various numbers say so...In the Arkansas Derby Gayego had the better post and it mattered. In the Kentucky Derby Z Fortune has the better post, one of the best you could get especially this year the way it worked out. If the horse is just a late bloomer you could be looking at a monster, anyway. The Derby is one of the few big races Albarado and Asmussen haven't won in the past 12 months. Bet on it!

Post 20 has only one once, Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

justin ... now that the posts have been drawn i was hoping you could stab at what you think the odds will be for the top three at post time ... as well as who will take fourth money and at what odds ...

At first I thought this move was pure arrogance, but the more I think about it, it seems like strategy that better suits BB. Of course like others, perhaps the most important factor is time in the gate.

Also, maybe Dutrow wanted RTG and possibly Gayego (not knowing where he would pick) to do his dirty work for him, plowing their way over, while he just cruised around the carnage and to the lead. Don't forget, he shouldn't mind sitting just off the front (in the Fla. Derby I don't think he was bullying his way to the front as much as he was bullying his way to the inside).

One other thought is that he is the type of horse who may be better in the 2-3 lane rather than on the rail. If I had to guess I would say he will probably pulling up next to Bob Black Jack just as they approach the first turn. If Gayego and RTG have a rough go of it, then maybe they won't get up there with him, then we may see a moderate pace scenario.

In my opinion, Court Vision's connections made the worst decision. He could have chose 11 where it would be easier to fan out and find a lane as they hit the stretch, now I fear he may get bottled up.

BB people are very confident that he can wire the field. Remember... they said it could never be done at Gulf Stream and he took it. Watching BB come out of the 20 slot will be nice! Myself, I still like Pyro, Z Fortune, Cool Cold Man, and Col. John on top.

The one horse that worries me that I've thrown out is Anak Nakal. After such dismal showings after such glorious predictions, what if this horse finally fires?

DRF shows 2 winners from post 20. I will follow up

Elusive Lady Big Brown Oaks Derby double 4-20

Dutrow is losing his mind to think he can win it from the concession stand...

Breaking from post 12 at Gulfstream is quite a bit different than breaking from post 20 in the Derby. The last horse to wire the field was War Emblem in 2002 and he broke from the 5 hole.

NTRA has post 20 only winning once and the article was written by Jay Privman from DRF. That same article said the one win from post 20 was a walk-up start, before the starting gate was invented. No word on whether or not that horse wired the field.

Col John Best pick for this race with so many speedsters there is no doubt that he will sit and wait to make a move with 4 furlongs to go and if he can get trough he will have the best chance at the end......

post 20 post 10 post 5 dont matter, he is not winning this race. Remember this, Col John follow by Pyro and big brown fighting with gallego at the en for 4 and 5.

And now for the Brown's final kiss of death....Battaglia made him the morning line favorite.

plavixman,

You know I'm a Big Brown man. Where did you get the 2ft info? I would like to read it for peace of mind. I think Dutrow has lost his mind. He's overconfident. He should have taken the 2. We're about to find out if Big Brown is really in the league of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and those guys cause he'll have to be to win from there. I'm deflated.

I just watched 10 races on the card from Hawthorne april 5 when RTG won on the front end as every other horse did also that day...The track was souped up speed im willing to give DOC another shot...He will be way back like he was in the southwest when he was 18 lenghts out of it...At 20-1 ill be playing him across the board for sure...DEJAVU STREET SENSE?????????? He broke his maiden the Churchill and calvin knows how to pick his way through, and DOC doesnt need the rail like SS did last year....

plavixman,

I did a makeshift calculation of my own and your number sounds correct. I'm breathing much easier. I'd still prefer a 2 foot advantage. Horses lose by noses every day!

An even more accurate calculation shows that Big Brown will be spotting Cool Coal Man, who is drawn 1, a good deal less than a length to the first turn, that is if he runs in a perfect diagonal line from the time of the break (which won't happen). With this field he may only have to be as good as Smarty Jones to win it all! I'm back on the bandwagon.

I agree that Denis of Cork could be a late factor...and Borel is well acquainted with the CD rail...he skims it as well as anyone......BUT....there are four or five other late runners that can win....CJ, Court Vision,Pyro,Monba.....all are in good form and working well....and if the speed collapses,it could be a cavalry charge...Im actually hoping thats how it goes.....should be fun to watch..........

Mike either your not happy with Pyro, or your looking for an early excuse.

I caught you posting Colonel John, now your spending your change across on Dennis of Cork. But for weeks now, I haven't seen a single post on Pyro.

Are you building a double house? Rem you only can sleep in one bed at a time!

Here's how the race shapes up.

The only real chance Big Brown had was to take post 20. The rail for a speed horse is a horrible trip. The whole field collapses from the outside and for a speed horse is devastating to be caught along the rail.

Post 13 Receive the best draw of each entrant.
Bob Black Jack controls his race from start to finish!

Post 17-20
Cowboy Cal
Recapture
Gayego
Big Brown

9-10
Pyro and Colonel John draw side by side

and Cool Coal Man draws the rail of death!

This a easy handicapping race now. Eliminate post 17-20. The first quarter is ran in 45 2/5 on a wide trip so it becomes a 45 flat pace in a straight line.

Nothing will or has survive at Churchill Downs. 17-20 has the staying power to run 7 furlongs at full speed in 1:22 without gasping for air, so the mile is hot in 1:34 and change.

Now Bob Black Jack becomes the dark horse, drawing inside the speed, allow for the cat trip instead of becoming the pace factor. If he shoot for the lead, 17-20 goes wide into the turn. But likely he will drop off, and let 17-20 still go wide into the first turn all by themselves.

So it doesn't matter concerning 17-20, and your still hoping for a clean break which rarely happens from the outside auxilary gate.

What a shame concerning the post draw, but that horse racing.

Pyro and Colonel John both sits and wait for the pace to develop in the second tier of horses. Both are likely NOT! to make a run early for the lead around the final turn but only race the straight away without any effort as the pace decades.

Were looking at a final quarter race only. No late closer and no front runners to last, just a nice ease run at the leader without urging by Pyro and Colonel John.

Bob Black Jack should rate now that he's drawn the inside of the speed, so I put him in the second tier as well. In fact, he will be tracking Pyro and Colonel John, but this time he will wait for Pyro and Colonel John to make their move first. He becomes the dangerous closer by inheritance from the post positions draw.

Forget about anything else in the race. They are completely out of positions and cannot make up the ground heading into the final turn with the third and fourth tier of horses hamper by the tiring speed horses. This is where it gets extremely crowned as the pace setter backup.

The suspected closer are impeded by traffic problems and never get a chance to run thier race until the 1/16 pole. By then, they are 10 lengths out.

Colonel John and Pyro will race in tandem and split left and right as the pace retreats. Bob Black Jack will likely run a nice race but can't keep up with Colonel John and Pyro stretch run in the final quarter.

Separate the top two from the field by 5 lengths at the wire.

We are going to get a spectacular closing battle the last 1/4 of the Kentucky Derby.

I believe whoever gets the luckiest navigating the tiring speed horse get's the money.

Big brown had the opportunity to win this race from post 1 or 2, now is over for him.
It sounds to me that Mr. Dutrow did not attend elementary school, you just have to be a very fool person to pick up post # 20, statistics for more than a century in Kentucky Derbys shows that only one, yes only one horse have won from position # 20. In fact 17, 18, 19 and 20 are the worst post positions and the winings are 0,1,0,1 respectively from those post positions for all the history in Kentucky Derbies. When the gates are open a smart horse/jockey will get close to the rail as soon as possible and stay closer to the rail as possible, which will give the shorter distance around the track and of course less time for winning the race, Big brown can break fast and the rail was just in from on him from position 1 or 2, now he has to speed up and use more gas and more distance to get to the rail on the first turn, you need the gas on the last furlough, and he will not have enough gas on the last furlough, for every second that he losses is equivalent to about 5 horse lenghts. I CANNOT BELIEVE THAT MR.DUTROW make that decision, may be an elementary school kid can explain to Mr. Dutrow the big mistake that he did.

Okay why is Big Truck 50-1 by the oddsmaker. I know the horse is a longshot, but I can see the horse splitting the field in an wide open race. He certainly got it wrong with this one. Should have receive 15-1. The race in Tampa race was a good race and distance is certainly not an issue.

Trainer is not bad as well. I will differently place 50.00 to win and place and top and bottom to cover. I can afford a Big Track if the price of gas wasn't so high, in fact if he scores, I have a down payment for the gas only.

Thanks Mr. Odds Man. fill her up!

Here the main bet: Boxing Colonel John, Pyro, Bob Black Jack (the horse keeps hitting the board)This is only my cover bet! Heavy on the top

Now here the absolute, give me the bank and break the bank bet.
Tale of Ekati, Monba, Big Truck
Why Analysis: The Wood winner, the Bluegrass winner and the Tampa winner.
Is the odds maker kidding,
15-1, 15-1, 50-1
These were the major prep races, not the second hand prep races.

The Kentucky Derby winner often times comes from these prep races.

Looking ahead to the final odds:
20-1,10-1, 70-1

How much will I be worth when its all said and done?

Hopefully in my dreams, it will be revealed.

Maybe I see the black cat as in deja vu in the Matrix movies and know exactly what will take place by the morning.

Mike, yeah with Pyro coverage I like the idea of covering DOC because of his odds and the fact that his post likely won't hurt him much if at all, and the fact that the race may melt down somewhat. If you already have Pyro covered, you get great value by DOC insurance. I'd love to see Calvin and Robbie duke it out one more time down the stretch.

If people really like Colonel John there is no reason he shouldn't be the favorite now. The 20 post should help Big Brown's odds and I can't see him being 2-1. But close...

BB-3-1
CJ-7/2
Pyro-5-1
DOC-9-1
Z Fortune-12-1
Gayego-14-1
Eight Belles-15-1
Monba-15-1
Court Vision-16-1
Cowboy Cal-16-1
Adriano-17-1
Tale of Ekati-20-1
Visionaire-20-1
Cool Coal Man 25-1

Big Brown is screwed. The hubris of Dutrow is astounding. If he had broken from post 2 he could've gotten the lead easily as he has the most early speed, especially with those in the posts near to him. It should be a jailbreak from the outside trying to get to the front. I believe those outside horses will set amazingly fast fractions and burn themselves out. Look out for Bob Black Jack, Big Truck and some closers, Court Vision and Visionaire.

Pat your exactly right its all about insurance....Ive already got Visionaire covered in the future pools, and ill be using the colonel and pyro in my daily doubles...My across the board play will be DOC at 20-1 is just crazy...Watch the races from hawthorne that day it was all speed no one was closing on the card...And watch DOC maiden win at Churchill its impressive.......HORSES FOR COURSES COME ON 45 AT THE HALF!!!

justin and eden...I disagree with your takes concerning Dutrow's decision. Remember...he had a choice of #1,2,18,19, or 20. What was he supposed to do? He is not a closer, so picking #1 or #2 is insane. If he were a closer, or even a stalker/closer, then he should have taken the inside and been sure of saving ground. He's a front runner though...and maybe even a close stalker here (remember, this is only his 4th race). Dutrow couldn't take the inside and risk a slow break (he'll be standing in the gate forever down there) and subsequent wall of horses in his face.

Dutrow feels he has the best horse in the field with all things being equal and he is a front runner. His options are now 18, 19, or 20. He knew that two more speed horses were going to draw after him, and you know as well as I do that it's best to draw outside of the speed if your want to run yourself. Even if BB breaks slowly from 20, he'll have no horses to bother him on the outside and he can use his speed to get back into position during that long run into the first turn. If having to use that speed early gets him beat, then he wasn't good enough from any of the choices Dutrow had. He'd have to use the speed early from an inside post to keep from getting pinched if he borke slowly.

I'm not saying that the 20 hole is the garden spot. His chances were hurt a bit when he drew there. I just think that if the five choices remining, Dutrow made the best choice for his colt.

Now...having said all of that, will BB win it? If he does, he's a great horse. If he does in front running style, he's a super horse. I think he's best suited to rate in the 3-5 position about 2 or 3 wide going around the first turn and get a clear run down the backstrectch. He can make his move entering the final turn (Barbaro, Real Quiet, etc.) and find out if he's the best. No traffic problems this way.

If Colonel John stays relaxed in the all the pre-race hoopla, he's my pick. I think he nabs BB at the wire. I can see several horses running late to get a piece. Pyro, Court Vision (does Gomez do anything wrong these days?), Z Fortune, Denis of Cork, and Monba to name a few. I can also see one other front runner maybe holding on for 3rd or 4th...like Gayego or Bob Black Jack.

I really think that Colonel John, Court Vision, and Big Brown are all sitting on big races. I'll probably key these three horses in the 1 and two spots in a super and get creative underneath. Looks like a fairly significant wager...better call the investors see what piece they want of this super part-wheel!

The predicted order of finish, which I may change after seeing them warm up, is: Colonel John, Court Vision, Big Brown, Z Fortune.

Mike, I think DOC could win, be anywhere in the super, its a good bet with the pace scenario in particular. The doubles I like Elusive Lady, Bsharp and Pure Clan with Big Brown, DOC and Colonel John. I've already got Pyro and ZF covered all I need on the win front. And if I hit the front end of the doubles I will have a lot more to play with on Saturday. If I don't hit with any of those on the Oaks I like Duveen a lot off the layoff with the price on Saturday...Good luck everyone.

Im with you Barry....

Big Brown is going to crush this weak field. No other 3 year old is even on the same level as this freak.

I will be placing a large wager on Big Brown to win. If i can get 3-1 i will be the happiest person in the world.

Big Brown is going to crush this weak field. No other 3 year old is even on the same level as this freak.

I will be placing a large wager on Big Brown to win. If i can get 3-1 i will be the happiest person in the world.

Ill bet BB comes out of the first turn with a hot dog in his mouth if he doesnt clear the concession stands by the first turn...

Big Brown already has a huge target on his back as the morning line favorite. Add to that his trainer is belittling the other horses almost every time he opens his mouth. Hmmm....something tells me he's getting one of the roughest trips in Derby history.

las vegas has Big Brown winning margin over or under 5 lengths

that's a superstar!

Thanks Jamie, the last laugh is always the loudest in the crowd.

Mike your not speaking to me anymore! What up with that!

Actually, Big Brown trainers mouth is quite big for his position.

Alittle annoying but acceptable under the circumstances.

He going to get a chance to prove his earlier statement in so much as Big Brown does not need the lead.

Maybe he doesn't and maybe he does?

But what not at question is the lost of ground. He is already minus 5 lengths racing forwardly or from behind just to make it to the first turn. Could amount to more during the race.

That would not be a smart bet in anyones book. I even will say, he will not go off the favorite.

Bettor in Kentucky are not that lacking about their money.