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The Process Continues

posted by Justin Dew on May 01, 2008 Tags:
Eight Belles (Photo by: Coady Photography)Eight Belles (Photo by: Coady Photography)

Yesterday we reduced the list of horses who might appear in my Derby wagers from 20 down to 12 by eliminating Smooth Air, Z Humor, Big Truck, Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Pyro, Adriano, and Anak Nakal from contention. Today we need to take the next step and work the list down to a more manageable number. Let’s see if we can get it down to six.

I think Eight Belles should be running in the Kentucky Oaks. There is no doubting the fact that she has tremendous talent. But I just don’t think the Kentucky Derby is the right time to be testing the waters against males. And she is light on experience when it comes to distance, never having been farther than a mile and a sixteenth. Last year, these connections almost won the Derby with Hard Spun. I am forced to wonder if Eight Belles is in this race simply because Hard Spun came so close, and the connections want to try again. Less than a week before the Derby last year, Hard Spun worked 5 furlongs in :57 and change, one of the fastest Derby works in history. Could Hard Spun have won the Derby if he had worked slower? Might the connections be asking themselves the same question? Maybe. Maybe not. Larry Jones knows what he is doing. But I won’t be using Eight Belles.

Cool Coal Man has talent. In fact, he has a lot of talent. I’ll bet he will go on to have a more prosperous career on the racetrack than most of his Derby competitors. But in comparison to some of the other efforts we have seen this year, his Fountain of Youth win was, in my opinion, not enough to make me rush to the windows. And his Blue Grass effort was a dud. I am pulling for Nick Zito because I like him, and part of me wants him to win because of the whole War Pass thing. But I think Cool Coal Man is up against it.

I had a large wager on Bob Black Jack in the Santa Anita Derby, and he darn near won. I think he is one of the five most talented horses in the field. But with some other very/more talented runners right there with him near the lead on Saturday, I don’t see him kicking clear and holding off the late-comers.

Simply because he has never done anything noteworthy on dirt, I can’t find a spot for Cowboy Cal.

Recapturetheglory has never run an opening half-mile in under :48 2/5 around two turns. That tells me he will struggle to make the lead and keep it, or even keep up should he fail to make the lead. I can’t bet him with confidence.

As impressed as I was with Z Fortune’s effort in the Arkansas Derby, I was equally unimpressed with his race in the Rebel. And while he has run 2nd to Pyro and Gayego, it is worth noting that the horses he has beaten in those efforts were Tres Borachos and Visionaire, who was making his two-turn debut that day. Also, in the Arkansas Derby, he was able to sit back behind quick fraction and make his move, but he still could not get past Gayego. In fact, he lost a little ground to Gayego late. I like Z Fortune, but I think others are more likely to win on Saturday.

So, that’s 14 down, and six still alive:

4. Court Vision

8. Visionaire

10. Colonel John

14. Monba

19. Gayego

20. Big Brown

My plan is still to make a win or a win/place bet on one horse, a three-horse exacta box using three of the above, and maybe some trifecta and superfeca plays using horses who have already been eliminated underneath.

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ryanmoseley

05/01/2008 4:48 pm

Pretty good job when it comes to making tough decisions and throwing out good horses. One must take a stand somewhere or you'll bet the bank on the whole field. My top 6 are as follows:

20. Big Brown

9. Pyro

10. Colonel John

16. Denis of Cork

2. Tale of Ekati

6. Z Fortune

My other 3 for the supers are Gayego, Monba and Court Vision. I'm going to make it work with these. Good luck to you and to all.

timflute

05/01/2008 4:53 pm

I will start off with my superfecta 10,13,8,4. My biggest bet will be a 20 exacta box 10,13. I will also use 10,13,14, in a box and am putting the 10 on top in a tri over 1,4,6,8,13,14,16. As you can see i like the colonel. Please feel free with feedback

badbettor

05/01/2008 5:01 pm

I can't believe it. I just noticed the pattern. How could it take me so long?
Big Brown is being built up to be the next Secretariat.
Could it be? That's exactly what the owner/trainer want you to think...what they want the other owners/trainers to think. This is a psych job. It is a Muhammed Ali special.
Think about it. History says that a horse with only 3 prep races won't win the Derby. If you are the owner/trainer,do you let that negativism into your camp? No way. So, here is what you do, just when everyone is interested you hide your horse in Florida for special training. You arrive late to Churchill Downs making sure to pre-announce your arrival and pretty-up your horse. You tell your staff to show ultra-confidence in your horse and even let the horse run a little faster that usual in his workouts to wow the crowds and reporters. You tell everyone that your
horse is better than all the other horses and that you expect him to win. WHY??
1) One school of thought believes in the "Power of Positive Thinking"
2) Also, you can psych-out the competition so that they are more focussed on you than the Race.
3) At some level you know your horse is going to need confidence after only having raced three preps
so you figure maybe the horse will get the confidence vibe from his trainer and jockey.
4) You like the attention you get and have the "too few preps" excuse to fall back on if you lose.

Message to other owners/jockeys: Yes, Big Brown is a great horse, but he is no Secretariat. Go Get Him!!

ryanmoseley

05/01/2008 5:13 pm

Oh.., the greatest shame of the '90s was that A.P. Indy didn't win the Triple Crown. Pretty sure he was a lock!

Eilise

05/01/2008 6:01 pm

Colonel John is one of my keepers and I'm having a hard time ruling out Visionaire. I'm tossing Gayego over PP 19. Tossing Big Brown over PP 20 and several other factors.

I'm keeping Z Fortune based on my unscientific "ugly horse" factor. Giacomo, Steppenwolfer, and Imawildandcrazyguy were my other ugly picks and all hit the board. I'm also playing Big Truck over superstition -- my son's first words were \"big truck\".

I've tossed Pyro but am putting him back in if the track is sloppy. We're about 100 miles north of Louisville and some nasty thunder storms are just now rolling in - anything happening weather-wise at CD?

reszkak

05/01/2008 6:03 pm

Justin,
I think Court Vision will be too far back, Visionaire won't have hte same kick at 1 1/4 and Gayego will fade after trying to keep up wiht BB.

Not feeling too confident reference my picks, you made good arguments to cut out 4 of the 6 I'm playing.

playjazz2

05/01/2008 6:22 pm

Justin--you threw out Pyro--do you really feel Momba is a better horse ?

jazzybrick

05/01/2008 8:10 pm

It's nice to see that you've made a hard decision a lot easier in narrowing the field down to a reasonable size. Although, same as last year, I thought by watching all the preps throughout the season, I was doing my homework and I'd at least be one jump ahead of all the day trippers going for color, cute horses, and lucky numbers, but here I am again wondering, with all the prep information at hand if I'm going to pick the "right" one/s.

I've already lost two races thinking Anak Nakal was going to break out of his slump, yet I know if I don't bet him, he will finally show up in an exotic. Maybe not? I do know he's been off everyone's radar lately. On the other hand, I still think Pyro has earned his stripes in addition to Z Fortune, Bob Black Jack, Cool Cold Man, and Col. John. Who am I going to bet? Even with all of the PP's at my disposal, I'm confused!

Ashley Walker

05/02/2008 10:52 am

Nicely done.