Hurricane Warning!

Justin, I am by no means a Big Brown fan.. However, I am worried. Last time a speed horse CONTENDER such as War Pas dropped out of the Derby a horse went wire to wire, War Emblem. If Guyego and BBJ rate, Big Brown will be saying Try And Catch Me. He will break fast and Mike will try to get him over to the rail... Your thoughts?

CAN THIS SITE RUN ANY SLOWER??????

Really, I thought is was my laptop!

Quick betting question. Is the super 5-five bet offered this Saturday? And if so, will they still allow superfecta betting? Also, what is the minimum bet amount for both?

-Z Fortune believer

Why can't Bob Black Jack win this thing? Isn't he the best horse out there
right now?

PUT THE HAMMER DOWN WITH PROUD SPELL AND PURE CLAN WITH YOUR PICK IN THE DERBY!!

I have dissected and sifted through every horse in this Derby over and over. Everytime, there is a horse I can eliminate. And that horse is Cowboy Cal. I am starting to think this horse could win this thing. Why not? He has the breeding in Giants Causeway out of the Seeking the Gold mare Texas Tammy (half sister to Behrens). His lone dirt try was his first out and was a sprint. He won the Laurel Futurity (think Barbaro) on turf; and in his first race back in a nearly a 2 months, he ran an extremely game second to stablemate Monba in the Blue Grass. He has had consistant Beyers in the 90's. Cant help but wonder if John Velasquez (Pletchers #1 rider) was offered the mount on Monba after Prado defected, but decided to stay with Cowboy? And for anyone who thinks this horse is going to try and go straight to the lead, think again:

Cowboy Cal's runner-up finish in the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 12 vaulted him into Derby contention based on his graded stakes earnings. He defeated the heavily favored Pyro, and trainer Todd Pletcher is confident that Cowboy Cal is maturing and ready to take the next step.

"He's a stoutly bred horse and has a tremendous pedigree," said Pletcher. "We are confident he can get the mile and one-quarter in the (Kentucky) Derby. The real key will be the trip; I hope he gets a good stalking trip, ahead of the closers. I am confident he will handle the dirt at Churchill Downs."

meant "cannot" eliminate - Cowboy Cal

Badbettor, I have asked the same question for months, ask Mike.. I like BBJ a lot but reality tells me its between CJ, Pyro and BB. But with the odds BBJ will have I will place some money on him just in case he does step up and play ball.

Mike I totally agree with you for the Oaks those are my picks. As well as Absolutley Cindy I like that filly she has game.

This is one of hte most competitive Derby's I can remember.
I think winning it is between Big Brown and Colonel John, but can't seem to keep anyone out of the Exacta, Tri or Super.

WIth so much speed outside, I'm going with the closers. My big bet.
Oaks Derby Double 1,6,8,11 over 1,2,9,10,14,16

I'm also throwing a super out there for the heck of it
10 over 2,9, over 2,9,14 over 1,2,4,9,14,16

Its a big chance leaving Big Brown out of it, but with it being so wide open, I'm taking a chance. If he was inside, I'd have him on top.

I personally don't think BBJ can get the distance, If you look at all his races at over a mile, he is backing up at the finish. With all the closers in this race, it would take a perfect trip with all the closers getting into a lot of trouble.

I also like the fact Cowboy Cal has Denis of Cork and Adriano (two closers) inside of him in the auxiliary gate, then the gap to the main gate, where his stablemate Monba will break from the 15. I really think Cowboy Cal can get settled into a nice stalking position and get a nice trip like Pletcher wants. I feel confident the horse can get the distance. The main question is will he take to conventional dirt coming from turf and synthetic. This horse is worth a look at a nice price.

Jharvat,

I agree with you on Cowboy Cal but unfortunately will be throwing both him and Momba out. This coming from me who actually hit the 140 dollar momba, cowboy cal exacta. But with experience and what I read, I knew the turf horse was going to run well on synthetic, but neither CC or Momba show they can run on dirt. They are going to have to prove it to me first.

For all of you who think BB is going to the lead, I hate to disapoint you but he's not according to Bill Mott. He is planning on stalking behind BBJ, RTG and maybe a surprise or two. If the does this and makes his move late in the back stretch, he could run a monster race. Pyro and the Colonel better not be too far behind, they may not have a chance if this happens.

Finally one of the handicappers on this site has Big Brown in the #1 spot. No surprise to me it's Ashley Walker whose list has been the best all year in my estimation. I'm going to roll with his selections. They are really close to mine.

Christmaninmay, Yes there is superfecta betting on the derby as well as the high-5

For the Oaks, we really like Pure Clan. If the track ends up wet (as rain
may be in the forecast), Bsharpsonata may be the one to beat (and should pay
a good price).

As far as the Derby, we like Big Brown, who is also the choice of many.
There are people who are doubting the horse saying he's not experienced
enough, didn't face any real competition, can't go wire to wire in the
Derby, etc. However, I think we still haven't really seen what the horse
can do. In his 3 easy wins, the horse was never really used. If he had
someone pressing him, he could have ran even faster. Also, we like the fact
that his monster prep race was on a natural dirt surface. If it does indeed
rain and give us a wet track, I think it would naturally help this speed
horse. The 20 post will be tough though and will probably force him to the
lead early and would eliminate any chance of trying to rate the horse a bit
(as in his 2nd race). It is questionable why they didn't take one of the
available inside posts when there would be no speed on his outside (I
believe Justin mentioned this).

Enough about the chalk. We also like some longer shots. According to our
analysis, Denis of Cork looks very strong. He may have been steadied in the
Illinois Derby; it seemed as though he just didn't fire. This may seem like
a surprise pick to many but if he puts out a performance like the Southwest,
and can get the longer distance, he will be in the mix coming for home.

Also, don't rule out the filly. Eight Belles hasn't raced against the boys,
but has a lot of experience and has shown some monster performances. Her
last race in the Fantasy was much more impressive than most of the colts in
their last preps. Also, she has some great workouts.

Gayego should also be considered, especially if the track ends up wet. We
also think Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune, Smooth Air (2 for 2 on wet track),
and Colonel John should be used in Tri's and Super's.

http://www.winningponies.com/

Plavixman, how would Bill Mott know what Big Brown is going to do? And the only reason Dutrow would choose post 20 is if he planned to go for the lead. If he was going to rate, it would make more sense to take 18 or 19. It would be easier to move inside.

sportztech1,
I had Cowboy Cal in the Blue Grass that day, and also had a feeling he would run a solid race coming over from to turf to synthetic. It's a risk taking him now going from turf, to synthetic to conventional dirt now, but Pletcher seems confident the horse will handle the dirt fine, and says he has trained well on dirt previously. I trust his judgement. As far as Monba, well, he won an allowance last year at CD at a mile, so he is proven on dirt. His horrible FOY was attributed to cuts on his hind leg and a breathing problem that resulted in surgery after the race. Seems that did the trick because next out he won the Blue Grass. I just hate to toss Pletcher this year. I have this strange feeling one of his horses are going to fire Saturday. Out of the two, my lean right now is on Cowboy Cal. I remember the year I made the mistake of tossing Baffert w/ War Emlem. I also did the same thing w/ Lukas and Charismatic. At the time, both seemed like easy tosses to me. Burned again

Cowbow Cal has no shot at all in fact if he wins there donating all his winnings....DOC and VISIONAIRE all the way.......

Jharvat, I think that's solid analysis on Cowboy Cal. I'll be using him in my main exacta boxes with Colonel John, Z Fortune, Smooth Air and Pyro. Should get great value odds on this horse and if he gets a stalking trip he could be dangerous. Looks like a threat for ITM to me as long as he doesn't vie for the early lead to the 3/4 mark.

jharvat,

True. I agree with your almost 100 percent. I guess where we differ is something we kind of agree on. In a 12 horse race he was squeezed. Which is why I think in this 20 horse race with speed on his inside (SmoothAir,BBJ) and speed on his outside (RCTG,BB) I think he will get sqeezed again, of course this time without injury I hope. The fact that he wont get out and be within the first 6 horses is what makes me throw him out. And again with Cowboy Cal. If you look at his past races he has to be or at least they want him to be 1-4 going around that first turn. I dont see that happening either. So he would have to overcome something he has never had to before in a race. But with that trainer its always difficult to rule any of his horses out.

Mike Barker,

I am only taking Visionaire in my exotic if the track is ruled sloppy. He seems to run well in the slop a fog. Besides that, there is not much to like about him at this distance.

Hurricane Warning was the name of my father's first horse!

Mike there you are again, I see no post on Pyro. You stop talking to me?

Why did you drop Pyro!

The only thing is certain is a 22, 45 and 1:09 and change into a 1:35 mile.

after that, it will not matter for any horse up front.

This is a 1 1/4 race. If something survives the fast pace, he would have deserve the victory above measure.

Colonel John, Pyro, and Bob Black Jack has drawn the best post, so they gains significant lengths on the field.

Tale of Ekati, Monba, Big Truck. They are the winners of the big prep races
The Wood, The Bluegrass, and Tampa. no argument here, they earned their way.

The most dangerous of the bunch is Tale of Ekati, Don't forget he is a Grade II and Grade 1 winner in his second start of the year. He only had to come and get War Pass the champ chasing a very fast pace.

I probably should move into the Bob Black Jack spot. Okay I will

Colonel John, Pyro, Tale of Ekati. Done! the my final selection for the Kentucky Derby.

slot33,
I also like Smooth Air, Colonel John and Z Fortune. And I am also going to include Cowboy Cal. I feel he belongs with these. He is a classy colt with stellar breeding that suggest dirt or distance will not be a problem. The way Pletcher has laid out his races reminds me alot of what they did with Barbaro. Cowboy, like Barbaro, won the Laurel Fut and Grade 3 Tropical Park on turf. He has a similar running style to Barbaro. By no means am I saying he is Barbaro, but I think the horse has a legitimate shot to get a slice, if not win it. He is kind of an unknown here because of the dirt thing. But so are others (Adriano, Colonel John come to mind). I think the horse is getting overlooked because of it, and that could be a mistake.

Johnny V. did have his choice of Monba and Cowboy Cal, and stuck with CC for familiarity. Check the interview on thoroughbredtimes.com I posted the link in another blog. Anyway, he didn't sound super-confident, nor does Pletcher. I think he'll be pushed and he'll fade. He's a certified presser, and if he tries to stalk, he'll be 10th and he's not good enough to overcome dirt in his face and traffic. To me his upside is the bottom of the exotics. I'll be tossing him completely because I just don't see him getting his trip or being good enough to be close without it. He could be sent though, and play a role in the pace which won't be as fast as people think.

On paper, there are few horses in the field capable of running a 1:09 and change in a 6f race, let alone a fraction. On pace figures, It's all Big Brown and Gayego early. Both of them seem pretty classy and ratable. BBJ is also tractable and has run slow early in his past 2. I think he'll be taken back slightly as they're going to try to save as much as they can to get the 10f. Tale of Ekati's last race showed tons of early pace, but Tagg was upset by that. Doubt he'll run so fast early this time around. Other horses like RTG and CC run close, and could go, but they'll work harder to get there. There is no run-off speed or confirmed front runner. Jockey's race. With BB on the outside, there could be substantial race riding with jockeys trying to hold their position and not let the outside speed drop over on them. Think Bellamy Road, where have the field ran to keep him off the lead.

Barry,

You need to take another look at the pace of the race with war pass again, 46, 1:11, 1:38, 1:52 is running in quick sand. War Pass was hurt and ran a horrible race which caused the fractions to be a bit slower then the 22, 45, 1:09 War Pass was cutting last year when he was beating Pyro. So like you I think the race will be in a 22, 45, 109 and Tale of Ekati wont be there to handle that. If Tale of Ekati would be considered, it would be based on the fact all his races are either G2 or G1, so if your a fan of the class of races then you cant leave him out. Iam not a fan of class though. I am a fan of math, speed, and fractions. None of which this horse is going to be able to handle come derby day.

Derbyme,

I totally agree with you on CC. I loved him in the bluegrass because of track, and no speed in the race besides himself, which allowed him to move to the front easy. The only thing I disagree with you on is, I think the fractions will be fast. BB has shown his last two races he likes to run a 22, 45, 109-110 and he runs it with ease. As I said in an earlier post, BB has won so easy that he hasnt had to be whipped coming up the stretch, which leads me to think, BB is going to have some left for that 1 1/4. Also, some of you seem to be on this Smooth Air horse and are dislikers of BB at the same time. Smooth Air had every chance in the world to beat BB in the Florida and BB was pulling away being hand ridden in that race. I like Smooth Air, but because of the fact I think he ran second to the best horse in this race. Just looking for someone to explain to be the logic of liking Smooth Air and not BB? Anyone?

derbyme,
I read that article on thoroughbred times with John Velazquez and I see nothing that indicates a lack of confidence in Cowboy Cal. Nor have I read or heard anything that indicated Pletcher is not confident. In fact, it sounds to me that Johnny V not only passed up the mount on Monba in the Blue Grass, but also now for the Derby. Here's what Pletcher has to say about Cowboy. Take it for what it is worth I guess. I think the horse can be around at a nice price:
Trainer Todd Pletcher is confident that Cowboy Cal is maturing and ready to take the next step.

"He's a stoutly bred horse and has a tremendous pedigree," said Pletcher. "We are confident he can get the mile and one-quarter in the (Kentucky) Derby. The real key will be the trip; I hope he gets a good stalking trip, ahead of the closers. I am confident he will handle the dirt at Churchill Downs."

I only started to learn how to handicap last year. Before I figured out what Beyer and Moss figures were, I created my own scale called a Metric. Cowboy Cal meets
the Metric perfectly and so he will be in my exacta box. I said I thought BBJ was
the best horse because I think he has the potential to put up the numbers and he
beat a horse I have really liked called Nikki'sgoldensteed. He also meets my Metric.
BBJ's post position means he will be right in the middle of it all, sink or swim. I
think he'll swim, so he too is in my exacta box.

BTW, a good reason to have your own scale it that you are not betting the same horses as everyone else!

Johnny V on choosing CC: "It turned out to be the wrong decision, Monba came back to beat me."

Pletcher suggested he might want another week with his 2, and seemed to suggest the Polytrack helped him get in. He's not the outwardly confident type, but trainers with horses they think could win generally show a good deal of excitement. It is the Derby after all. But hey, the price will be right.