The Final Analysis

Good luck and you'll need lots of it with your #1 pick breaking from the parking lot. And if you do get a win ticket with the number 19 on it, you'd better save it -- it will be one of the rarest pieces of Derby memorabilia on earth.

But seriously, good luck to all -- we're all going to need it with this wide open field.

Thanks JD, hope you're back next year. Pyro, Big Brown & any combination of Visionaire, Z Fortune, Cowboy Cal or Court Vision.

Buena suerte...

1) Big Brown
2) Pyro
3) Gayego
4) Denis of Cork
5) Z Fortune

Alright everyone. After spending the morning on the backside at CD, I learned or observed a few noteworthy items. First, Pyro worked in bar shoes. So, is something wrong with his feet and they aren't telling? Very reminiscent of Scat Daddy last year and the foot issues(bar shoes) Derby week. So, again, he is a definite toss for me and has lost his spot on all of my tickets. Several horses looked either uncomfortable or un-impressive on the track and here they are Z Humor, Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal, Monba, Pyro, and Z Fortune. Additionally, a few stood out in the crowd - Dennis of Cork, Big Brown, Smooth Air, and Recapturetheglory (no kidding about the last two). Court Vision and Tale of Ekati just looked okay at best. Unfortunately, I did not see Colonel John, but did speak with a few of his crew/supporters while watching Big Brown work/gallop out. Everyone was in awe. No kidding. After watching him this morning, I think the race is for second. Of course, an infinite number of things can happen when the gates open and the race is run, but I believe this is HIS race to lose. Thankfully, the price will be a bargain at post time as he shouldn't drop any lower than 3/1. Something else that troubled me was seeing Bob Black Jack gallop over the track, his stride is somewhat choppy and ugly to watch - there is no fluidity to it. Which begs a few more questions about Colonel John. Is he that good or did he beat a lackluster group in CA? Also, in watching all of his works this week and his past performances, he doesn't have an explosive turn of foot and instead relies on a grinding style. So, I am extremely concerned his running style will compromise any chance of being in the race turning for home. He resembles a Belmont Stakes horse and looks like he would relish 12 panels. Anyhow, time will tell on CJ, but I don't think he will be on the majority of my tickets this Saturday. Hopefully, some of this information provides a little insight. Good luck to everyone and may they all come home safe/sound!

If Big Brown's feet hold out, I can't imagine him not winning the Triple Crown. He raced wide the entire race and still dominated. I thought it was an honest pace, which helped Big Brown, Eight Belles, Tale of Ekati, and Recapture the Glory to hang on to early spots; they were all in the top 6 the entire race.
Dennis of Cork's race skimming the rail reminded me of Street Sense, just no way to catch Big Brown.
I was shocked that so many handicappers picked the last place horse (Haskin and Drew to name a few). Probably harder to pick the last place horse than the winner in most races. He was on my tickets as well.
Right before the Derby, I placed a tri bet that had Big Brown on top with Dennis of Cork and Tale of Ekati on it (among others). Only one I had that was close, but only lost $70.
Very sad about the filly. Interested to see what the autopsy says. Wonder if her legs breaking were the result of something else; heart attack or something.

thanks for the coverage this year, it was a great race. Too bad about what happened afterward. Ernest Hemingway would have loved this one.

Big Brown is simply the best. Awesome performance. Will earn the walkover in Pimlico. But as with all dominance performances, the Belmont the cradle of champions.

Will he get the distance of 1 1/2.

Tomcito awaits?

Big Brown, Big Brown , Big Brown! Eight Belles totally messed up my super since I played CJ, Pyro, RCTG, DOC and TOE behind Brown. That being said I'm not mad at her and I was extremely sad to see her go down. Onto the Preakness. Nice to see the site is somewhat back up again.

Barry - I agree. Big Brown was extremely impressive and it appears he will not face much in Baltimore. His performance seems to bring more credibility to the Florida Derby after last weekend. I am just looking forward to seeing him run again.

Was not an Eight Belles fan and she ruined all my tickets, but yes it was sad to see her go. All this PETA (or whatever the stupid group) BS is just rediculous. Give me a break thats what racing is all about. Some go down, most stay up, it happens.

Anyways, this Peter Pan is going to be one hell of a race. I HOPE Tomcito is favored because I think he is up against it. Ready's Echo, Lt. Ron??, and the horse from Japan. He better hope for a fast pace. This is going to be a great race for inexperienced horses, look out for a Belmont contender in here. But still, GO BIG BROWN!!!

In case anyone couldn't figure it out, this blog is still working...Click on the "Add Comment" button at the top of the messages. Let's keep this thing going to the Breeder's Cup!!!

Right now the Peter Pan appears to be a good betting race. More than likely, Tomcito will be no better than 3 choice in the wagering, as he is currently the co-4th choice on the M/L. I don't see this race as being strong and think he could break through at a great price of around 5/1. Honestly, the Japanese contigency is not that strong. I understand the breeding end, but Casino Drive won an allowance race - the only race of his career and he comes in favored? Anyhow, I am pulling for Tomcito and like the fact he goes back to dirt and gets Cornelio in the saddle. That said, I will toss the favorite (#1, #5), then play $20 to win on #6 and $20 tri 6-2-8 or $10 tri's 2-6-8 and 6-2-8. Thoughts?

wow havent been able to log on for daysssss thanks for reporting the add comment button i must be blind.....had 200 to show on DOC made a little bit a cheese....Im playing READYS ECHO tomorrow hes 6-1 they must be nutz at those odds .....Ill be back tomorrow to post i have a ringer in at Belmont Sunday thats gonna destroy them.....

Well, I had the winner and the exata twice over. I can't believe I missed the tri. Did not play a large ticket and left Eight Belles out of 2nd. $1700+ for $1...

Got NBC's sports page and watch the "analysis" for the blimp view of the race, which is highly telling. Colonel John and Pyro brushed at the beginning, but really had no excuses. Colonel John's run was not as wide as it looked other than veering out slightly at the top of the stretch. The top view gives a better impression of who was quickening when, and Big Brown left them standing. DOC was also flying, as was Eight Belles. The others just couldn't accelerate with the top 3. Not much excuse for Colonel John who probably should have been 2nd, he'll be better on the synth.

I made a considerable amount playing gimmick bets on Bodog, where they offered a line at 1/2 as to whether Big Brown would go off at less than 7/2. He was at 5/2 when I bet. Lines don't go up appreciably on Derby Day. Free money. Also bet that there would be no scratches from the Derby just 2 races before. And they had 1.7/1 line on whether Eight Belles would run in the Derby the week prior to the race.

The Peter Pan is certainly an interesting race, though I'm not sold on the quallity. Too bad Leutenant Ron scratched. I think everyone wants to see how the 3 foreigners run. I've been a huge Ready's Echo fan, but have serious doubts about his ability to punch it in at 9f. Personally, I can't wait til Pletcher sends him out for a turf mile. I'm thinking Rock of Gibraltor style late kick.

My Baby Baby and Thousand Words are horses I touted that are now officially on my bad list.

If El Gato Malo behaves in the paddock down at Lonestar, he'll be way gone.

Wow! Gotta say I didn't think Casino Drive had a chance, but am eating humble pie at the moment. No excuses for Tomcito, Golden Spikes, or Ready's Echo and don't think they could have caught the winner on any day (though Ready's Echo had a great run from last). Agree Derbyme this field might not be in the same ballpark as Big Brown quality wise, but the winner was quite impressive. Honestly, I still don't think he can run with Big Brown.

Casino Drive was SPECTACULAR!! I was the biggest Big Brown fan after the Florida Derby and I cashed a decent sized win bet in the Derby. I am a believer in Big Brown and I wish dearly that he will win the Triple Crown. But believe me he'll be up against it in the Belmont. There are 2 clear standouts on dirt amongst the colts and I'm not sure Casino Drive will be called "the other one" at the end of the day. Tell me the last time a horse ran 1 1/8m in 1:47 4/5 in his second lifetime start winning by nearly 6 with his ears pricked and back under wraps at the finish. Gentlemen it was incredible. The last furlong was run in 12 2/5! add that the trainer said he wasn't going to be 100% for this race and look for him to bring his A game in the Belmont. Big Brown fans like me are up against it. Big time.

Pedigree:

I posted in another blog a possible clue as to why Big Brown is outrunning his pedigree. The basic premise is that the Nureyev blood (through his dam Mien) allows Danzig-line sires to produce runners which win top class stakes races up to and beyond double the average winning distance of the progeny of the Danzig-line sire. If this holds true for Big Brown he should be able to win up to 1 1/2m at the highest level. But what happens when he meets another "freak" who is bred specifically to get 1 1/2m? Being by Mineshaft makes Casino Drive a 3/4 brother to Rags to Riches who beat CURLIN in the Belmont. One could argue that Curlin may have been tired by then he was still pulling away from the rest of the field at the wire.

I hope Big Brown wins the Belmont but he'll have to be every inch of the super horse we think he is. On the Preakness, if Harlem Rocker doesn't go it'a a walkover for Big Brown. In my opinion Harlem Rocker is talented enough to make him work for it. The distance will be somewhat of a question for the son of Macho Uno.

I'm still not entirely sure what to make of Casino Drive's performance... To me, it was the third most impressive performance I've seen by any 3-year-old this year behind Big Brown's last 2. This horse looked like he lost it in the paddock. He made like a rodeo bronco rather than a blue blood throughbred. He then hesitated at the start and lost a couple lengths. Grade II. at 9f in his second start by 6 lengths... Physically, he's built a lot like Rags, large frame with extremely long but not necessarily thin legs. If he takes another step forward like he probably should, he could give Big Brown all he wants. P.S., please put Ready's Echo on the turf with blinkers.

On a Bernardini note, Albertrani debuted a very impressive Unbridled's Song colt for Darley Stable with Javier Castellano aboard. Could be a Traverse horse, at least has the connections.

Alright folks. For those of you interested, I am in the process of creating a myspace page dedicated to horse racing. So, if you are interested send me a friend request and I'll accept, then we will continue to blog, infinitely. My user name is the same as here DerbyFan78. Everything should be functional by today's end. FYI. The photo on the page is of Big Brown and was taken Thursday before Derby outside his barn - I have several more if you would like one. Hopefully, some or all of you will join me - the more, the merrier. Take care.

DerbyFan78

Readys Echo will win next time out.......Belmonts track is so fast hes like the only horse to close on the card... I figured he wouldnt hit the board after watching all the races...Speed was golden all day

Looks like Big Brown will have it easy in the Preakness. He should absolutely destroy this field.

I am very intrigued with these late developing 3 year olds though. Two in particular: Harlem Rocker and Casino Drive. I am hoping both point to the Belmont, although I have heard Harlem Rocker is headed to our northern neighbors.

It would make for a very interesting 3rd leg of the crown though.

In my mind those 3 are the best in the division. They have raced a combined 9 times and all 3 are perfect.

The Albertrani horse I referenced is named Unbridled's Heart who was a $1 million yearling by Unbridled's Song out of a Farma Way mare. Despite the Unbridled's Song breeding, he never made it to the races at 2, and seems to want a route as his bottom side is all distance. His dam was a multiple graded stakes winner who could also run on turf.

Anyway, he won for fun by 10 lengths after setting a quick but controlled pace. He finished 8.5f in 1:42 and 1. Compare that to the very next race where NY allowance horses went the same distance in 1:44 and 1. Casino drive went 9f in 1:47 and 4 after slightly faster fractions. Unbridled's Heart looks to have a very bright future if he can avoid his fragile breeding which has probably already delayed his debut.

The Preakness should be a public workout for Big Brown but the Belmont should be extremely competitive. Casino Drive, Denis of Cork, maybe El Gato Malo could all give Big Brown a run for his money.

A few exactas for Friday at Pimlico:

Race 9 (off turf): 5 / 4

Race 11 (off turf): 7 / 9

Saturday, May 17th

HOLLYWOOD PARK, Race 3

(9) Big Red Tate, 9/5 ML

It's always nice when the pools are big enough that 1-5 can win and I can still get $1192 for the super! That was a public workout and now it's on to the match race with Casino Drive. Denis of Cork and Icabad Crane will fight it out for 3rd.

Valenzuela to ride in Louisiana HE IS A LOSER 10 TIMES OVER I WOULDNT LET HIM RIDE MY TRACTOR IF I HAD ONE..

Prado to ride Casino Drive in Belmont

McGlaughlin is very high on Lady of Venice.

Belmont Stakes Day...Late P4:

1, 2 / 2, 5, 6 / 1, 3, 9, 11 / 1, 3

I really dislike Dutrow.

Even though I wanted Big Brown to win, I am not that upset that he lost. His connections are so full of it.

On another note: There was a G2 Oaks race at Hollywood today. Million Dollar Baby had an awful trip. She is one to look out for next time out. Throw her in the Equibase Stable!

***Million Dollar Run

Thats what Dutrow gets for trying to call out Curlin before he even had won the Belmont .... Curlin would steam roll him...