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Whither Thou Goest, Georgie?

posted by Mac McBride on March 16, 2008 Tags: , , , , , ,
Georgie Boy impressive in San Felipe (GII) (Photo by: Benoit)Georgie Boy impressive in San Felipe (GII) (Photo by: Benoit)

Wither thou goest, Georgie Boy?

Well, one question answered way out here in the wild west: Yes, Georgie Boy can run on. You bet he can. If you haven’t already, put him in your Kentucky Derby figuring. Barring the dreaded injury (touch wood), he’s headed to Louisville.

Ah, but where will the GB Express stop along the way on the Kentucky run? That’s the next big question. And it would appear there are many potential answers to that one.

First off, trainer Kathy Walsh is going to watch her dark-hued gelding over the next few days the way an airborne hawk might watch a scampering field mouse at lunch time. What the son of the young Storm Cat stallion Tribal Rule does during that time – in effect how he talks to her with his body language, appetite and attitude -- may give the trainer her answer as to where she might be headed next.

Just how tough on him was his tally in Saturday’s San Felipe? He drew a 92 Beyer number for his first two-bender and gave no signs of backing up at the conclusion. In fact, he seemed to be making a statement in the opposite direction, an especially good signal from a racehorse whose daddy only got to show himself as a very fast sprinter before injuries sent him to the breeding shed.

If old pro Walsh sees that her boy bounces back quickly – eats up, muscles up and wants more racetrack – she can readily consider bringing him back relatively quickly, if she so chooses. On the other hand, if he’s a while getting over a hard and competitive contest, she may want to give him more time to get back on the beam before she throws him into the fray once more.

One thing is for sure – unlike some of her potential Kentucky Derby rivals – “get in” money is not an issue with her California homebred. He’s won nearly half a million bucks and most of it has been in graded stakes. If he doesn’t run again, he’s still one of the top qualifiers. Amen.

But, to the point, what might her next-out choices be for her charge? Here are the logical ones:

Santa Anita Derby – April 5 – Three weeks between races, then four to Kentucky
Illinois Derby – April 5 – Ditto
Wood Memorial – April 5 – Ditto
Blue Grass – April 12 – Four weeks between races, then three to Kentucky
Arkansas Derby – April 12 – Ditto
Holy Bull – April 12 – Ditto

All of the above races – with one exception – are at nine furlongs, a distance Georgie Boy has yet to try. The exception is the Holy Bull, which tacks on an extra sixteenth with its Preakness distance of a mile and three sixteenths. Remembering that money doesn’t matter in this case, the fact that these preps range from a million bucks (Arkansas Derby) all the way down to just $150K (Holy Bull) is an issue for some, but not for her. In fact, rather than scrambling to the heavy cash zones to ensure qualification, she could go low on the dough and thus face less competition.

If she chooses to stay home, or if she chooses to run in Keeneland’s Blue Grass, she’ll once again run on a synthetic racetrack, something Georgie Boy has done in all seven of his starts to date. If she runs in any of the other four preps, she gives her stretch runner a taste of dirt, something he’ll confront in Louisville on May 3.

If Walsh chooses one of the out-of-town preps, she’ll be able to get a read on something she hasn’t run by her horse yet: the wonderful world of shipping somewhere new; something again he is definitely going to find out about come Louisville time. Thus far all Georgie Boy has had to do to be a racehorse is to take a short van ride on California freeways to cavalry posts at Hollywood Park, Del Mar and Santa Anita.

There’s another element in the mix, too. It is the condition of two vertebra in the back of Rafael Bejarano, the hottest rider in the country not riding right now and the designated “go to” guy for Georgie Boy prior to the rider’s tumble last Thursday at Santa Anita. The injury just may have taken the talented Peruvian out of the Triple Crown mix, but if there’s a chance he can and will be back sooner rather than later, Walsh will want to mull that one as part of the Georgie’s-next-caper equation. She has a very good – and now very successful in the Georgie Boy context – backup in young Michael Baze, who in the past year has ridden the hide off them in California and shown he well could be ready to make his presence felt on the national stage.

Finally, there come into play intangibles that only the trainer can account for. What does her owner think and want? What about the competition she might have to hook at that next stop? Does she want to stay at home (a good thing) and thus face Colonel John and El Gato Malo (not such a good thing). Does she want to ship to get him the schooling that will provide (a good thing), yet stay on the synthetic he loves (a good thing)? That means Keeneland and a date with Pyro (not such a good thing). Does she want to ship (good) and try him on dirt (possibly good)? If so, weather could come into play, especially in places like New York and Chicago this time of year. If she takes that extra week this time (by running in one of the April 12 preps), she gets an extra week taken away from her headed to Kentucky. Is that a good thing?

Things to figure for the lady; some of them logical, some of them gut. It’s the sort of business she’s been doing for more years than she’d care to count. So she’ll add up the pluses and minuses and – in the end -- come up with an answer. Just like she’s done thousands of times before.

It’s just that this one has a little something extra to it. It has the smell of roses about it and that’s the sweetest thing a Thoroughbred horse trainer – male or female – can ever sniff.

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patbateman

03/16/2008 9:36 pm

Mac, yeah what a nice race for Georgie Boy. He doesn't fool around with excuses like El Gato Malo and just wins on any surface.

California racing is out to prove that they have it right and all the big three California contenders should prep out west I think. If they can do that and win a Derby, they will be an even more attractive year round destination for many owners and trainers, so long as Santa Anita gets some surface consistency (like maybe trying to use the exact same formula Hollywood Park uses for its surface...) and Del Mar's track was pretty much wack as well. At least Georgie Boy has proven he can win on all three significantly different artificially enhanced racetracks, showing that he is not a one surface freak, or his win a Dominican-like result that you just can't trust.

I think a horse on the bubble like Z Fortune should shoot for the Holy Bull, since he likely only needs a little more money and he didn't run well on the Oaklawn surface...I will bet him big if he's on the final future wager as an individual betting interest, as he may be at 60-1 and I'd love to get on board before his final prep attempt.

Georgie Boy vs. El Gato Malo vs. Colonel John will be a great horse race.

derbyme

03/16/2008 10:47 pm

Pat, don't forget Yankee Bravo, I still think he's top class, and when he figures it out, he'll be right there.

Mac, Still don't think Eight Belles has no shot against the boys? With War Pass going down, I think we might be a Pyro upset away from seeing Country Star and others pointing to the Derby just to duck this freak. She beat a top 3 filly in little more than a breeze. I've seen horses worked harder than she ran. In all reality, I think we saw the Oaks fave. 8-1 future bet looks like a bargain, too bad I was too stupid to take her.

Bob Black Jack ran a terrific race into a closers bias. I don't think he'll go long, but he might move up on dirt. Ditto Gayego. One has to admire Georgie Boys consistancy and versatility. He reminds me a bit of Afleet Alex with his quick turn and subperb athleticism in a wirey frame. Once he learns to switch leads without swerving and jumping, he'll take another big step.

mac

03/16/2008 11:04 pm

Patbateman --
The SA Derby you project would be a dilly. Might happen. We'll probably know in the next week.

Derbyme -- Respect your opinion, and respect Larry Jones, but it would be a major surprise to see Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby, never mind winning it. If Jones thinks he can win the Kentucky Oaks with her, he's there.
Agree with you on Gayego. Big race for him. He got a 91 Beyer. His trainer (Lobo) might be the best conditioner in the country nobody knows of. Be very interesting to see what they do with Gayego next. If he could shake loose in something like the Illinois Derby, they'd play the dickens trying to catch him.

romccann

03/17/2008 9:17 am

mac-

Picking up on your Baze comments, after watching the race twice, I'm drinking the kool-aid. He rode high and the horse responded to him. Baze didn't turn him loose until he absolutely had to. And man, when he's loose, that horse is good. Gayego was no slouch either. With the right trip, I'm convinced he could be a player at Churchill.

It would be interesting if this is a year where the California contingent makes a splash in Churchill after all the talk of track conditions and weak fields. Right now Georgie has to be, at minimum, a top 5 contender.

And like derbyrne said, consistency is worth our admiration. I don't like to make it any harder than it needs to be when locking in on Derby horses. A little indicator like...you know...the horse wins every prep race he runs..really makes the handicapping easier. Ask the Smarty Jones and Barbaro backers.

BOBBY

03/17/2008 9:17 am

Georgie Boy showed he could stretch out and was coasting way past the wire. He runs like one of the Best horses of all time (Barbaro). He has that high knee action and his legs are always stretching out. If he handles the dirt, he could be a monster. Would love to see him come to Keenland and take on Pyro. That would be a heck of a race.

Funny thing now to see how Walsh was struggling for a riding because of other Jockey's commitments, but now she will have everyone standing in line.

Hee Hee....

eaoa89

03/17/2008 9:20 am

Just "thinking outside the box" a little bit- What about something for George like the Northern Spur. This would give him both shipping and dirt experience and I'm doubting that the race would come up all that tough, so he wouldn't have a lot taken out of him. I really think that a dirt race prior to the Derby, not to see if he can handle it, but more as a learning experience, would benefit him quite a bit, as would the shipping experience. (And I'm not sure how this works, but he could actually go straight from Oaklawn to Louisville and have plenty of time to settle in and get use to the surroundings)

mac

03/17/2008 1:42 pm

Romccann -- I'm with you on both Georgie and Gayego. Both dangerous.

Bobby -- I'm thinking that Walsh will be thinking she doesn't want to hook into Pyro until she has to. Michael Baze is the logical one for the horse now. But do know that Walsh and Garrett Gomez are very close to each other. If Garrett is still shopping....

Vowel Man -- Now you are way outside the box -- and that's the sort of stuff we love. Had to go searching to find that one, but you're talking about a flat mile for 3s on April 12 at Oaklawn with a $75K purse. The purse wouldn't mean anything and the fact that he'd have to ship and try dirt might be a good thing. Not sure about dropping him back to a mile if you're running a mile and a quarter next. Not that you couldn't, just that most trainers wouldn't. Let's throw that one in the hopper and see what comes out.

jjjimmyjam9

03/17/2008 2:52 pm

You tell 'em Mac.

Ain't no way Georgie Girl wants any part of Pyro. Georgie is a synthetic specialist and just beat up on 2 confirmed sprinters. Georgie still has to prove it against better horses (non-sprinters) and I'd like to see him have a little trouble to over come. Looks to me he had a perfect trip but that does not get it done when prepping for the Derby - just ask War Pass! I won't take anything away from him yet but lets hold up on the "Monster" comments for now.

mac

03/17/2008 4:06 pm

Jimmy with the Js --
"Georgie Girl" was a rock number out of the '60s by an Australian group called The Seekers.
Georgie Boy might be a synthetic specialist, but then again he just might be a good racehorse. We're not going to know until he puts some loam under his hooves in the heat of battle.
Agree that you don't want to be washing the 2-y-o champ down the drain just yet. But we're all aware now that he does have a chink in that armor.

mike barker

03/17/2008 4:27 pm

Those cali horses are barely cracking 90 beyers, and i agree Georgie beat a field loaded of nothing but sprinters, he was suppose to win that race....And eight belles looked good but lets first see her beat Country Star who atleast won some graded stakes races...

mike barker

03/17/2008 4:33 pm

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44120

derbyme

03/17/2008 8:05 pm

Country Star has beaten who? Grace Anatomy, 6th in the Winstar Oaks? Grace And Power? The Golden Noodle? A to the Croft? Sorry if I'm not blown away. Oh and she's never ran on dirt.

Eight Belles won by double digits 2 in a row, then waltz around toying with the previously unbeaten Pure Clan who was largely regarded as one of the very top fillies in the country. (Closed at 7-1 behind only Indian Blessing and Country Style in OFWP2). I don't know what's gotten into this filly, but she moves with stunning ease. Eight Belles = if Bernardini had a sister.

mike barker

03/17/2008 10:41 pm

I seen her race sunday she looked awesome, her and pure clan again at oaklawn april 6th...April 7 Country Star at keeneland...

Ashley Walker

03/17/2008 11:17 pm

Derbyme,

I'm not sure she will be toying with Pure Clan next out. I doubt Holthus had that one tightened up, and she sure came running at the end.

Eight Belles has looked impressive for sure, but she might end up reminding you more of Sis City than Bernardini when it is all said and done.

mac

03/17/2008 11:53 pm

Love your Oaks discussions, lads. Suggest you go on with it over on the Oaks site. They'd love to have you.

barryrmitchell

03/18/2008 9:57 am

So true Mac, the Oaks side of the table needs everyone input.

Mac do you know if there is a published Graded Earnings List.

I have not found one thus far.

It's time to chart the tactical position for the Derby.

When I look at the possibles entrant published up top and on the premium bloggers top ten, I really don't see any speed in the Derby which has qualified. Everything is a closer from 1:12 pace.

I know Cowboy Cal has speed on the green, but that is it for the front runners and suspect on the dirt.

Maybe Big Brown has some speed, but needs earning. Anything else to challenge War Pass up front. Distance maybe his issue, but a Lone "F" trip seems to be the bigger picture. Pace dictates the race and sure we all witness each qualifying races zooooom home in 22-24 seconds, behind 1:12 pace factors.

You know as well I, when you start changing the pace to quicken up front, the 22-24 seconds become 24-26 seconds. I don't see 4 or 5 up front with qualifying earnings.

Or any new blood on the field of play which has speed. Not anybody can show up you know?

Where all this speed going to come from. Right now, I see a pace less Derby. Far below previous years. This may turn out to be a calvary charge home by 10 horses or a Lone "F" trip by one.

Cdpotato4

03/18/2008 11:26 am

Barry,

I wouldn't worry about it too much at this stage of the game. I am sure some speed will show up in the future. Brancusi. Spanish Chestnut. Keyed Entry. The derby will go :23 :46 1:10. That's how it has been recently with the exception of War Emblem.

mac

03/18/2008 11:34 am

Barry --
Let's see now, seems to me there's this horse who did pretty well last year and was doing fine this one until he had this hiccup down on the west coast of Florida last weekend. War something or other. Do believe he has a bit of speed. So you might consider him in your pace figuring come Derby time.
Could be, too, you'll get to throw a couple of California horses into the speed chowder. Both Gayego and Bob Black Jack have serious speed and either, or both, might wind up in Louisville. Liked Gayego's race a lot last weekend in the San Felipe. Watch out if his trainer takes him to the Illinois Derby.
Several of the eastern horses (you mentioned one) have fleet feet and may have no other way to go in the big Derby field. Let's wait until the big preps in early April are run. Then you'll have a better feel for who is going to do what to whom come Derby Day.
Below is your Graded Earnings list.

Kentucky Derby 134

Earnings in Graded Stakes Races

Compiled by Ben Huffman

Churchill Downs Racing Secretary

The field for the 134th running of the $2 million guaranteed Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I) on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs is limited to 20 horses. If more than 20 are entered, preference will be given to entrants based on earnings in graded stakes races. Here is a look at earnings in those races for Kentucky Derby 134 nominees through March 16, 2008.

Horse
Trainer
Owner
Graded Earnings

War Pass
Zito, N.
Robert LaPenta
$1,320,000

Pyro
Asmussen, S.
Winchell Thoroughbreds
$1,020,000

Z Humor
Mott, W.
Zayat Stable
$524,000

Kodiak Kowboy
Asmussen, S.
Vinery & Fox Hill Farm
$441,373

Georgie Boy
Walsh, K.
George Schwary
$390,000

Tale of Ekati
Tagg, B.
Charles Fipke
$288,000

Colonel John
Harty, E.
WinStar Farm, LLC
$270,000

Sierra Sunset
Bonde, J.
Philip Lebherz, et al
$259,000

Court Vision
Mott, W.
IEAH Stables & WinStar Farm
$256,872

Cool Coal Man
Zito, N.
Robert LaPenta
$212,767

Big Truck
Tagg, B.
Eric Fein
$194,500

Anak Nakal
Zito, N.
Four Roses Thoroughbreds
$189,716

Visionaire
Matz, M.
Vision Racing & Team Valor
$180,000

Majestic Warrior
Mott, W.
Kinsman,Smith,Tabor,Magnier
$164,000

Denis of Cork
Carroll, D.
Mr. & Mrs. William Warren
$150,000

El Gato Malo
Dollase, C.
West Point Thoroughbreds
$130,000

Blackberry Road
Carroll, D.
Dogwood Stable
$123,417

Z Fortune
Asmussen, S.
Zayat Stable
$120,000

Indian Sun
Hendricks, D.
Cecil Peacock
$104,000

Atoned
Pletcher, T.
Dogwood Stable
$100,000

Smooth Air
Stutts, B. Jr.
Mount Joy Stable, Inc.
$90,000

Shediak (FR)
O'Neill, D.
Triple B Farms
$78,576

Etched
bin Suroor, S.
Godolphin
$77,180

Elysium Fields
Tagg, B.
Robert Evans
$70,000

Yankee Bravo
Gallagher, P.
Harlequin Ranches, et al
$60,000

Kings Silver Son
Asmussen, S.
Mike McCarty
$60,000

Cowboy Cal
Pletcher, T.
Stonerside Stable
$57,660

Texas Wildcatter
Pletcher, T.
Stonerside Stable
$50,000

Gayego
Lobo, P.
Cubanacan Stable
$40,000

Nikki'sgoldensteed
Hess, R. Jr.
M. Lomas & G. Spencer
$30,000

Bob Black Jack
Kaparoff, J.
J. Harmon & T. Kasparoff
$30,000

Isabull
Hobby, S.
JoAnn & Alex Lieblong
$30,000

Stevil
Zito, N.
Robert LaPenta
$12,000

Big Brown
Dutrow, R.
IEAH Stables & Paul Pompa
$0

Fierce Wind
Zito, N.
Four Roses Thoroughbreds
$0

patbateman

03/18/2008 2:46 pm

the data is inocorrect for some of those

patbateman

03/18/2008 3:05 pm

incorrect I think I mean

mac

03/18/2008 4:50 pm

patbateman --
If you'll tell us which ones you think are wrong, we'll check it out.

Cdpotato4

03/18/2008 5:39 pm

Mac,

Wow. What a performance by Georgie Boy. In my opinion, it was the best performance by any 3-year old this year. He instantly jumps to #1 on my list.

All the doubters:
Yes, he did have a perfect trip. No, he hasn't run on dirt. No, he hasn't gone 9f or more.

To all those comments, I respond, "WATCH THE REPLAY!" This horse is a monster. He has the perfect running style to win the derby. And what a closing kick!!

buckeyepaul

03/18/2008 5:48 pm

Mac, checkout the Downeyprofile for graded earnings. Enjoy the insught from all.

mac

03/18/2008 6:08 pm

Cdpotato4 --
Sounds like you've got a horse you like for the Derby. Isn't that a good feeling.

buckeyepaul --
Help me, please. Where do I find the Downeyprofile?

phil_cayla

03/18/2008 6:56 pm

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derby_Contender_Graded_Earnings

mac

03/18/2008 7:25 pm

Thanks, Phil.

Checking both the Churchill racing officer and the Downey Profile Graded Stakes Earnings' list, they jibe for the most part. Churchill is carrying mostly horses who have shown an apparent commitment to the race, while Downey is carrying additional horses, even though they aren't likely candidates for Louisville.

The only horse I can find a money difference on is Z Fortune and it appears Downey has it right with $129,000 in earnings (not the $120,000 that Churchill shows). My guess is it was a typo. Will give the Churchill boys a heads up and they'll plug in the right number post haste.

As in years past, that $100K point is looking like a minimum to be able to come and play. In effect, if you can't put that much in the bank by May 3, you better go get youself another broker.

barryrmitchell

03/19/2008 3:33 am

Thanks Guy's for the earnings list.

Tremendous help. If the Derby is ran today, War Pass get a lone "F" trip. 1-20 has no early speed whatsoever.
Mac, this year appears to be devoid of speed performances. Anyone on the list has ever went a mile on the front end "wire to wire" I can't find them.

By default War Pass might just get the best trip of all.

What with all the jockey switches, that's business, I guess.

Court Vision to the Wood. I think this is extremely good move. I really didn't think the horse like Florida as a well as eastern track.

I really liking Elysium Fields in the Florida Derby, maybe I can get 5-1 odds or better.

mac

03/19/2008 9:04 am

Barry --
Don't let them overwhelm you, my man. Watch all the players, zero in and have an opinion. Then get a little lucky. This could be your year to hit the jackpot.

SoCalAl

03/19/2008 10:25 am

Hello Mac,
Like always a very nice article.. Georgie Boy, nice run and especially in the stretch. I liked it but it did not get me fired up like Denis of Cork. As promised Nakatani is back on Colonel John and the rumor is he will run at Santa Anita but I think they may head elsewhere. As Far as Dennis, I not get young Julian Leproux and I could not have asked for a better young rider. I am now praying that Dennis's connections opt for the Illinois derby as Court Vision will go to the Wood Memorial. I don't want these to to hook up until the big day. Otherwise it messes with my odds, you know what I mean. Don't look for either Dennis of Cork or Court Vision to win their next out. Just look for a strong ride to the wire. If they win it hands down they win it, otherwise they just get some experience for the Derby. So as of now I like....
1. Dennis of Cork
2. Court Vision
3. Colonel John
4. Pyro
War Pass will really have to show me he is still the same colt he was last year, otherwise he is out...

Have a great day,
SoCalAl

mac

03/19/2008 10:57 am

SoCalAl --
You the man, SoCal. Like all of your horses. I've got a few more to add to that list, too. Let's let them shake down in the big preps upcoming, then we'll get a real good feel.
Keep your eye out and keep us informed. Good luck.

SoCalAl

03/19/2008 12:23 pm

I agree Mac,
I also want to wait out to see Elysium Fields, the young Big Brown, Yankee Bravo and yes The Bad Cat (El Gato Malo). I still have not given up on Tale of Etaki, Majestic Warrior, Momba, Shediak and WarPass Whom will need to run a nice solid race next out for me to consider, regardless of troubles.
Honestly, the only ones that I expect to step it up in this group are Tale of Etaki & Yankee Baravo the others would be a mild surprise to overcome all their woes.
I would not be shocked if any of these step it up big time next out. You know, this time of year I always seem to remember Lukas and how he sort of experimented with his colts. I mean one day they ran like donkeys and the next out like a true superstar. So one bad day at the track is very forgiveable especially to a young colt such as these but two three in a row just shows me they are out of their league.
By the way Circular Quay is finally rounding about heh????
SoCalAl

mr irresistable

03/19/2008 12:37 pm

your california bias aside, got to love georgie boy and his two closes in his last two starts.Of all the preps so far, seems like his positioning and patience are Derby necessities (granted, small fields). hope he comes out of the San Felipe in good order and heads to the wood (not the bluegrass) he's a gelding... no saving and no ducking anyone.

mike barker

03/19/2008 2:15 pm

Im not excited about any cali horses this year, but georgie is head and shoulders above any of them...Atleast his #'s are very good in my opinion.. If you really want to make some $$ on this horse bet him next time out that will be the 3rd start off his 5 month layoff...Horses 3rd time back like that are ringers............................Horse name Country Star
Notes KY Oaks Winner
Activity type Workout
Activity date 03-19-2008
Track Hollywood Park
Surface All Weather Track
Distance 6 Furlongs
Workout type Breezing
Workout time 1:13.80
Track condition Fast
........................Watch her get busy on April 7th in the Ashland at Keeneland

mike barker

03/19/2008 2:17 pm

Also if you like Elysium Fields then i guess you would like my top pick VISIONAIRE since he has baetin him already....

barryrmitchell

03/20/2008 12:39 am

Nope, Mike. I am looking for horse to mature quickly before the Derby.

Pass performance is not a requirement at this point.

What I didn't know is Big Brown has enter the Florida Derby, I thought he was heading to the Bluegrass Stakes.

The Florida Derby is turning out to be the best line up this year for three year olds.

Shaking the bush! If Big Brown is enter, He the favorite and the choice to beat.

E-Fields is improving, CCM will run his race, but I don't think it will be good enough.

beebs4201

03/20/2008 9:02 am

Barry,

Cool Coal Man is going to the Bluegrass Stakes

Calvin Carter

03/20/2008 9:43 am

Barry,

In addition, Cool Coal Man has had only one work since the Fountain of Youth while 3rd place finisher Court Vision has had two works and 2nd place finisher Elysium Fields has had three works.

Cdpotato4

03/20/2008 2:11 pm

ALL

barryrmitchell

03/22/2008 5:21 am

Thanks Guys on the CCM info.

I am leaning towards E-Fields more so than Big Brown.

I see the perfect trip and no CCM to deal with in the end?

If E-Fields wins it only validates CCM prior performance.

robertthegreat

04/08/2008 6:05 pm

A 50 cent trifecta is available for the Ky derby. The payouts' history in past could mean a $200 to $400 for a 50 cent investment if a 5th or more shot is in money with 2 of 3 favorites. A bet of 2 favorite with the field 2nd and the 2 favorites. 1st and 3rd will be only $18.00 < horses a and b 1st and third; with the field 2nd( same cost with the field is in 1st or third position in bet). I believe a 2 name horses and the field is $54 for the box. I hope there is a 10 cent Superfecta with a $50,000 + payout for a dollar already in the Ky derby. 10 cent could be $5,000. The matrix is mind boggling with $100 given you 1000 combinations. (4 horse box is $2.40)