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Just A Little Fuzzy on the Future

posted by Mac McBride on March 31, 2008 Tags: , , , ,
Georgie Boy (Photo by: Benoit)Georgie Boy (Photo by: Benoit)

Everybody likes Future Book bets, right? Well, yeah, but….

Surely, the idea is a good one. Bet way ahead and get a better price. If you win you’re rewarded (likely) handsomely and --- more importantly in many a case – it does the ego much good when you kick in the bragging rights.

My media compadre at Del Mar for more than a quarter century now – one Daniel G. Smith – came up with a dandy Future Book idea back in the ‘90s to call extra attention to our Del Mar Futurity winner. Following the close of the meet in September, he’d make a trip to Las Vegas and get Future Book odds on our Futurity winner for the following year’s Kentucky Derby. He’d buy 50 $10 tickets and we’d mail one to all our regular media and media types who covered the track each summer. It would give them an extra reason to remember the winner and, hopefully, a rooting interest come the first Saturday in May. Smith would get 75-1 or 50-1 regularly and an understanding that, even if he hit the bet, the good PR among all those media types would be a plus for the casino that could ease the monetary hurt of a potential licking.

For several years Del Mar paid and got no return. But then in 1997 the bet turned – all the way to “bingo.” A nice little hide named Silver Charm had won the ’96 Del Mar Futurity, had yielded a 50-1 advance price in Vegas and then cane running in Louisville the following spring. Right afterwards, lots of San Diego media folks went to laughing and scratching and stories were both written and told about the windfalls.

But then things changed. The Vegas boys didn’t respond too well to the hit and the potential prices got shorter, much shorter. A few other factors played into the mix besides and, next thing you know, the Futurity Future Book bet just wasn’t worth it anymore. It died a quiet death.

Yet another Future Book incident from a few years back is recalled, it too of Vegas origin. A Guy (who shall go nameless to protect his limited-but-always-hopeful standing in Sin City) and his friend asked at a certain sports book about potential Derby odds on a 3-year-old who had yet to start. “Non-starter,” smiled the clerk. “Gotta be at least 100-1.” In that case, said the Guy, he’d like to get down. “Oh, you want to bet,” said the clerk with a bit of surprise in his voice. “Hold on.” A trip was made back behind a door. The clerk returned. “We’ll give you 40-1,” he said. The Guy’s response will not be printed.

Further still, we asked a sage gentleman who knows a whole lot more than we do about gambling and betting and odds for his take on Future Books. Through an e-mail he said “Don’t get me in trouble now, but here it is:

I've always liked the idea of Future Books, but I'm afraid the way the game is played in our country just doesn't appeal to me. You've got basically two choices: the pari-mutuel type that has a limit of 24 betting units, and the sports book type available in Vegas and they've both got significant negative aspects.

The one that has 3 stages just doesn't offer attractive prices because of the way it's set up. It's not their fault--they've got to work within the strict constraints of our gambling laws. And the Vegas books don't make any real money on the Future Books, so they play it safe and generally don't offer any real bargains. They're primarily interested in not exposing themselves to a big hit, so they don't try to make a set of prices that'll attract big gamblers.

You've got to go to England to find real Future Book (they call it ante-post) betting, and that's because it's been a part of the game for so long and the bookmakers actually compete with one another to see who can offer the best prices although they obviously aren't going to set themselves up for a big killing. You can make a big bet (say $10,000) on the 2000 Guineas as early as August or September of the previous year. And one of the big books will take the whole bet and THEN cut the price a bit. Try to make a bet like that on the Kentucky Derby in Vegas and they might take $1,000 at the opening price (if they've even offering prices) and then give you the rest at a much smaller price.

Best advice for any Future Book player is get a fat price to compensate for the hugely higher risk (as compared to betting in the tote on race day). If you bet some horse 2 months in advance of the race that you think could be 5-1 on race day, anything less than 12- or 15-1 is not acceptable.

If you had access to all of the Future Book prices (all 3 stages) since they began the pari-mutuel style wagering, comparing the FB prices to the starting prices would turn up a lot of horses that were higher on race day than they were at some stage of the FB. That's reason enough to stay away from the FB. Sure, occasionally there's been a big bargain or two, but they are definitely offset by the lousy prices (including those on horses that never walked in the gate).

Future book bets on team sports are probably easier to cash than those on horse racing, because you know the team's going to compete. Not much chance that the New York Giants will fail to turn up for the 2008 NFL season because of a bruised foot. Of course the prices may not be as juicy. It's all a matter of weighing risk versus reward.

I'd say the Breeders' Cup Future Book is more attractive than the Oaks/Derby FB. More races to choose from, and the fields are much less predictable say two months out. Of course you've still got to get a smart horse. But again, for the BC Future Book to be really interesting, you'd have to open up the betting very early in the year, and the people making the prices would have to be able to adjust on the run. It could happen if we had English-style betting, but it can't happen here.

No real opinion about this year's Derby. Horses run in so few preps these days that it's hard to say that you've really been following a horse when there's not much to follow. The Derby can offer great betting opportunities, but most of them are on the day of the race. Kind of too bad they can't do the FB the right way, but the law says no."
End

So, should any of this stop you from making a Future Book bet if you want to? Absolutely not. Go for it. It can be fun and, with a bit of luck, rewarding.
And if ego is your true motivating factor, you can do what a grandstand regular we once knew used to do race after race to ensure his standing among his fellow racetrackers. He’d buy a ticket on every horse in the race, then flash the winning one afterwards with an “I had it” smirk.

A bit costly it seemed, but he probably saved a ton in psychiatrist fees.

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thomasjnelson

03/31/2008 6:41 pm

thomasjnelson

03/31/2008 6:42 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfnhJb3CvbE

mac

03/31/2008 6:42 pm

By-the-by, guys, sorry to report that you'll need to hold off on any Future Book bets on Georgie Boy. Just came across the wire that he's pulled a muscle in his back and is off the Derby trail.
Too bad. Way too bad.

phil_cayla

03/31/2008 6:57 pm

Sorry to hear that mac, I know you had high hopes for him.

barryrmitchell

03/31/2008 7:52 pm

Well Mac, it never fails, every year we lose a horse from the Derby trail.

The second west coast horse thus far. Sierra S and now Georgie B.

I am sure we have a few more somewhere to lose.

I like Colonel John before the injury to GB, and now even more so!

It didn't look like El Gato Malo was ever going to get by the colt who will improve significantly second time out.

Colonel John should win easily this time out.

patbateman

03/31/2008 8:02 pm

too bad about Georgie Boy, that track at Santa Anita has proven to be a dangerous place this year for a top 3 year old. Hey I think the future wager is a great way to get some coverage ahead of time so that on race day you can make your primary bets with some of your longshot bets already covered. Yeah it would be great if all the triple crown nominees were bettable, but the way its done is ok and it probably keeps me from taking too many ridiculous shots at 200-1 horses when I should be locking onto my winner pick(s). I bet Giacomo at 25-1 in pool 2 then at 50-1 in pool 3 and derby day itself and I don't know if I would have stuck with him if I hadn't jumped in in pool 2...

sharonroller

03/31/2008 11:15 pm

barryrmitchell

this from Brad Free at The Daily Racing form today:
He writes regarding Georgie Boy, and his muscle pull and being oiut of the Santa Anita Derby,

The injury is the latest in a string that has decimated the California-based- 3 year olds division.These stakes winners are injured and off the derby trail
Dixie Chatter (Norfolk Stakes) Crown of Thorns (San Felipe)Into Mischief (Hollywood Furturity) Nikkisgoldensteed (Turf paradise derby) Autism Awareness (El Camino Real derby Meadows) and Sierra Sunset (Rebel at Oaklawn park)

mac

03/31/2008 11:26 pm

Patbateman --
Santa Anita's track has had its share of woes this year, but don't blame it for this one. Georgie Boy is stabled and trains at Hollywood Park.
Get your Future Book logic. Longshot stabs and don't take it seriously. Good way to go.

BarryM --
Understand why you like the Colonel. He'll be a solid favorite in SA Derby and will take some beating.

Geronimo2123

04/01/2008 4:43 am

Colonel John's connections will be shortsighted if they crank CJ all the way up again this time. El Gato Malo needs the money, has consistently been running faster breezes (including 2 bullets), and will get the jump on CJ this time in the SA Derby.

El Gato Malo ran the final furlong faster than Colonel John did. 11.4 to 11.8.

The reason it did not look like EGM would not catch CJ after the finish is CJ has a longer stride and Gomez was all over the poor Colonel with the whip for 2 furlongs, hence, the gallop out carried CJ that much further.

EGM is more push button. I expect EGM to win the SA Derby. Bank on it. Give EGM Col. John's trip in the Sham and I know Col. John would have NEVER caught EGM. Not a chance.
Not at 9 panels...

Now, in the Derby, I am not so sure yet. Lets see how they both run. But CJ needs to prep well, he does not have to win the SA Derby, to move forward to the Derby. And do not forget Yankee Bravo.

mike barker

04/01/2008 9:03 am

Well Georgie would of been the only one on my ticket...

barryrmitchell

04/01/2008 11:46 am

Mac, it may not be as simple as saying on track or another. The various new tracks out west does have more bounce in them, requires a horse to use different muscle groups. This was the protective clause in selling the new surfaces.

Knowing this, it may have cause the horses nature muscles to become weaker. Maybe the real reason for increasing injuries.

The California Racing Board should explore this option.

They may not be the same historical injuries but a transfer to a different muscle groups.

The numbers cannot be ignored!

I still believe Colonel John is the best we have to offer! Their is no distance issue to cover, and the horse which should have been behind El Gato Malo, set in front!

Lets not forget, Colonel John is actually the closer, not El Gato Malo. But if you review the sprint races, you can make a case for each horse having the ability to set the pace. Each can run 1:09 for six furlongs.

I believe Colonel John is probably the best between the two over a greater distance.

derbyme

04/01/2008 3:34 pm

I'm not sure I'd consider either a true "closer". Both seem tactical with a fair finishing punch. Last race was unique as to the severe lack of pace, made all the stranger by the fact that the last place you want to be on the "new Santa Anita" course is anywhere near the lead. The best handicapping angle in the country is to bet against front-running favorites at SA, e.g. Monterey Jazz, Lethal Heat and Sea of Pleasure last weekend. Meanwhile, American Revolution ships cross country to GP and almost sets a track record for 6f in 1:08.4_ in a starter allowance. Speed often rules the day on dirt, but at Santa Anita, it's all about coming home. The effect in the Derby will be unpredictable to say the least as the best dirt horses in California may be finishing up the track in their preps or perhaps can't even win a race out there. Electrify went from crushing on dirt to flopping at SA in Sunshine Millions, then back to dirt for a track record.

Speaking of closers... Mac, any word on Baldwin winner Ten Meropa? His stretch kick was awesome, and I thought they were supplementing, but I did not see his name as a late nominy, nor is he considered for the SA Derby.

mac

04/01/2008 5:08 pm

Barry --
I like that you like your horse and the Colonel is a nice hide in good hands. But give me El Gato Malo, at least one more time.

Derbyme -- Know there was some talk about Ten Meropa pointing for a Derby following his Baldwin win down the hill at Santa Anita March 2. They worked him one time since (a slow half mile on March 17 on the lawn) and that's it. Not a good sign in the heart of Derby season.

barryrmitchell

04/01/2008 5:49 pm

Mac, don't you owe me a hot dog! or was that Justin. No that right, I was broke and you bail me out, standing in front of a drive thru line.

I will parlay Justin hot dog on Colonel John. El Gato Malo is all yours.

I believe the weather forecast is late showers on Saturday, with a high 69 and low 53.
Wednesday, maybe showers as well. So possible two days of rain during a four day period.

That should make the race a 85-90 beyers

SoCalAl

04/01/2008 5:51 pm

Sorry Mac,
I was always leaning more towards Colonel John in the West Coast although I thought Georgie would make it a nice series. Now it seems like the sleeper in West is Yankee Bravo but he will have to get through the Colonel.
As far as future book wagers, they are as volitile as penny stock and I rest my case......

Can't wait to see Denis of Cork, Court Vision, War Pass, Colonel John and the others tangle up this week-end. You can literally stick to those three races and have a make or break week-end in a 1-2-3 punch, good luck..

Have a great day,
SoCalAl

mac

04/01/2008 8:28 pm

Barry --
So not only can you pick horses, you can forecast weather. My man, this is Southern California you're talking about. Never mind that rain stuff. They'll save that for Kentucky.

So Cal Al --
Tell Barry there won't be any rain for the SA Derby, will you. You know that.
Yes, Yankee Bravo should be running late. And he'll need to run either first or second if those boys want to take him to Kentucky.
Good racing indeed this weekend. Now we're in the heart of the action.

derbyme

04/01/2008 11:58 pm

Santa Anita's main track = turf course. Therfore, Yankee Bravo to run them down or break slow, toss his head, swerve wildly and miss. I think he'll win based on his turf form. He'll have to beat El Gato Malo. Colonel John is good and flattered by Salute. But if it's a sprint home from the 3/16ths home, Yankee Bravo's quickest, EGM is second quickest, and Colonel John probably more tactical.

Of course I was all about Reflect Times too...

Ironically, Santa Anita's turf course is running like traditional dirt... Speed is killing on the turf..

Mac, Glad to know Ten Meropa is still training. Maybe he can give Crossing the Line a little bit of a challenge in the Turf Mile.

SoCalAl

04/02/2008 10:05 am

Barry,
It won't rain Saturday for the Santa Anita Derby... I have never seen it rain for a SA Derby but then again I have only been watching since 1993...
Expect solid efforts from Denis of Cork, War Pass, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati & Yankee Bravo. Does anyone know if Momba is going to run this week-end? If he is expect much improvment from him as well.
I love & hate this time of the year cause it is make or break time for many colts but that's the way the cookie crumbles... Go Dennis!!!!!!!!!!!!Yea!

SoCalAl

slot33

04/02/2008 10:35 am

Colonel John's shown some versatility in his races at 1 1/16 or more. He can definitely come from off the pace if necessary. I'll have to watch the Sham again because my impression was that El Gato Malo had to slow slightly but got out quickly on the turn. I didn't think he was impeded that badly and he wasn't going to get past Colonel John. I don't know what the instructions from Harty will be for the SA Derby. I'd think you'd want to win but not get into an all out war with someone. Regardless, I think Colonel John is best in the West.

patbateman

04/02/2008 4:25 pm

I don't know Mac, Georgie Boy did his racing at Santa Anita...anyway, I wouldn't call it longshot stabs but more like precision strike future wager strategy. Good luck this weekend, I hope Colonel John and El Gato Malo both run good races and square off down the lane again.

barryrmitchell

04/02/2008 10:12 pm

Rain, Rain, Rain, I am doing my dance! Rain, Rain, Rain

Mac never tell the rain doctor how to dance, you might get a dark cloud to follow you around right to the window at post time.

Rain, Rain, Rain

10% chance of rain, and increasing, Rain, Rain, Rain.

I only need a drop to change the surface Lol!

Puddle here and a puddle there, heck puddle everywhere.

I see a small cloud on the horizon. Very small but sitting over the ocean.

Imagine this, it rains so much, they transfer the Santa Anita Derby to the turf course. Lol.

That will help Yankee Bravo Mr. Derby!

Colonel John, the daylight winners. Trevor will say, California's best is heading to Kentucky as the winner of the 2008 Santa Anita Derby.

derbyme

04/02/2008 10:13 pm

Mac,

East meets west in the Midwest this weekend. Take your pick:
1) Ginger Punch v. Zenyatta
2) Country Star v. Proud Spell v. Bsharp

I'll take Zenyatta in a thriller and Proud Spell to take down the Ashland.

barryrmitchell

04/02/2008 10:50 pm

Okay time to exit my tent, I smell rain, I see rain, I feel rain.

Like I said Mac, it shall rain on Wednesday and Late Saturday. The rain man has spoken.

The track will change for sure, Puddle here and Puddle there,

Mr. Derby, I'll take the exact opposite on each selection, small wager!

If I win, you don't mention Big Brown for a week in any commentary on this site.

If I lose, I'll stop writing against Big Brown for a week in any commentary on this site.

Seriously, no one beats Ginger Punch this year, she is a sure bet to remain undefeated.

Country Star put up triple beyers this weekend, and talk of more to come.

SoCalAl

04/03/2008 10:50 am

Listen! shhhhh, lisen, shssss.... chirp, chirp, a sparrow on a white rail fence, thu ra rump, thura rump, thura rump, frrrrrr, frrrrr, frrrrr, the sound of a colt breezing around the track. The aroma of a freshly brewed cup of coffee and the blinding light of the morning sun... AHHHHHHH! the smell of wet dirt as the water truck and tractors prepare the surface for the next round of horses working out. The murmurs of rumors and more rumors being released by the most dangerous and slick member of our bodies. The echoes of jockies in the distance as they gallop the best athletes in the world. Ohhhh how wonderful the sounds and smells of a typical morning at the track. So much to describe and not enough words to do it. This is what Santa Anita is like in the Spring time and Saturday is looking to be just another typical bright sunny day in Southern Cal.. Barry, leave the rain dance to the indians who usually time it just right and get with the program. Just find the winner rain or shine and brighten up your day.
Don't forget, Dennis of Cork wins hands down, War Pass just get cought at the wire by Court Vision and Colonel John explodes through the stretch. What ever you do remember the golden rule of wagering, "Thy shalt box".

Illinois Derby
1. Dennis of Cork
2. Golden Spike
3. Atoned
4. Z Humor

Santa Anita Derby
1. Colonel John
2. Yankee Bravo
3. El Gato Malo
4. Signiture Move

Wood Memorial
1. Court Vision
2. War Pass
3. Tale of Etaki

Of the three the Wood is the most difficult to handicap this week...

Good luck to all..
SoCalAl

derbyme

04/03/2008 11:41 am

Barry,

Ha, ok, I'll take your wager. I don't know how much more can be said about Big Brown anyway. What a great weekend though! Surf Cat v. Gregs Gold, Sweeter Still, Tiago going back to dirt, Daytona going to a speed favoring turf course but dropping back to a mile. Arizona v. Talk of a Cat. Enough good horses running against other good horses to ensure bettable prices for once.

barryrmitchell

04/03/2008 1:53 pm

So SoCAL, your that negative present I felt last night. We'll I have one more day of rain to provide. It a two day washing of the poly track late in the day on Santa Anita Derby day.

I got to get started Medicine Man, I see another small cloud on the horizon
"Way ya – Hi ya – Way ya- Hey ya"
"Way ya – Hi ya – Way ya- Hey ya"
"Way ya – Hi ya – Way ya- Hey ya"
"Way ya – Hi ya – Way ya- Hey ya"

Mr. Derby, good deal.

Seriously though, has any horse ever won the Kentucky Derby only racing from one venue!
I can't think of a single winner?

Mac, come on, give me credit for calling the rain on schedule last night?

mac

04/05/2008 12:46 am

It'll be clear and fast for the Santa Anita Derby, Barry; you can bet on it. But you'll have to stop doing that dance if you want to.

mac

04/05/2008 12:47 am

Oh, and Barry, give me El Gato Malo.

barryrmitchell

04/05/2008 5:14 pm

Hello, are you listening! I am standing behind the pari mutual window, I see Mac is standing 5 to the rear of the line. You can count on it! I will start punching tickets extremely slow, Trevor calls the horse to post. Mac is fueling inside!, their all in the gate in a perfect straight line! Trevor calls, and their off........... to a perfect beginning in the 2008 Santa Anita Derby.

Mac just got shut out, you should see the look on his face......

I have to put the wood board up as Mac walks away dejected and still holding his cash!

What he does know, I just did him a great favor!

Colonel John wins, and El Gato Malo cash is safely in his pocket.

Now the BIG QUESTION, is Mac going to give me a tip! like he would have if the big cat would have won.

Say thank you Mac, that all I need to hear.

barryrmitchell

04/05/2008 5:59 pm

Sorry Mac, I know your not having a very good day at the races.

Dennis of Cork falls horribly in the I-Derby. What interesting about the race, from the 1/2 mile pole, the top 5 positions NEVER change, or were they challenge.

Everyone just ran like it was a training race or something? The race time was not good as a 15-1 shot wired the field.

Now please drop the DOC from the list of probables.

The BIG THREE are: PYRO, which I believe will inherit the Derby favorite position with a Bluegrass Stakes win.

If not, less for them, more for me!

BIG BROWN the new phenomenon, and finally Colonel John, who will receive the negative press as the poly track specialist. That will be a huge mistake,

I believe the Derby winner will be PYRO or COLONEL JOHN, the racing styles are similar and they both will apply pressure late in the long stretch to my old Kentucky home.

derbyme

04/05/2008 11:32 pm

Barry,

Keeneland was a wash, luckily there's still room on the Eight Belles bandwagon! However, Zenyatta CRUSHED!! She's just a freak, an absolute freak. Sort of like this three year old Florida Derby winning colt I know. Granted, Ginger Punch didn't run her race, or Country Star for that matter, but WOW Zenyatta. I don't think Rags could have beat her. She'll just get better with distance, and she can handle dirt as well as synth. A deal's a deal, barry no more Big Brown Bashing for you until next week!

EGM ran his race in the paddock. Yankee Bravo is simply a turf miler, synth sprinter, Colonel John looked like Smarty Jones in his work and ran like him today, and Bob Black Jack could move WAY up on dirt, would have romped for fun in the Illinois Derby, and will probably have the lead at some point in the big one.

barryrmitchell

04/06/2008 1:30 am

I agree Mr. Derby, Zenyatta is a monster, but we said the same about Nashoba’s Key as she executed everything in her way at Hollywood Park and Del Mar last year. Remember she is still undefeated on the Dirt and looks as equally monstrous with Grade 1 and 2 victories. Don't stretch the truth NOW!. Rag's was in a class of her own and race with heart to beat the king of colts CURLIN. I still believe with an outside chance to redeem the high praises is Magnificence. She is tremendous, she will be available at the Hollywood meeting as well.

Hollywood should be the place to be this summer.

Nothing to say about Big Brown anymore, Mouth is closed for good!

I am all set now, barring any injuries, PYRO is my choice for now and Colonel John is a very close second. They will race as a pair in Kentucky, and whomever gets the whole to race in first will probably win.

J Be K won like the Derby trial will be his next start. I would send him, air by 7 length today.

Your absolutely right! The Illinois Derby would have taken on a completely different look. Bob Black Jack probably would have won, but I think breeding wise, 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby tops 1st in the Illinois Derby.

See you next week. Good Handicapping