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The Winnow Factor

posted by Mac McBride on April 06, 2008 Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
Colonel John: (Photo by: Benoit)Colonel John: (Photo by: Benoit)

Winnow. Now there’s a nifty verb. “To rid of undesirable parts,” says one dictionary definition. “To separate grain from chaff,” is another. “To blow away; scatter,” is a third. And that’s what this Derby prep, graded-stakes-money-required system is doing these days – especially so last Saturday.

Out California way there popped up a no-doubt-about-it candidate for the roses in Colonel John, the long son of his longer sire, Tiznow, who won the Santa Anita Derby like a good horse in good fashion and in good time. They might be able to beat him in Kentucky, but the sense here is that he’s first going to remind them very distinctly that they’re in a horse race.

But also popping up was the Winnow Factor (WF), taking with it several horses who most certainly have had Derby on their menu right up until the WF kicked in. Horses like El Gato Malo (ouch, he said), Yankee Bravo and Coast Guard have been WF’ed. And even a surpriser like Bob Black Jack, who hung on doggedly to take 2nd in the nine-panel tiff, isn’t likely to be Louisville bound any time soon.

Across the country Saturday similar things were happening. The “runnin’ on figs horse,” Denis of Cork, likely was WF’ed in Illinois. And other than Wood winner Tale of Ekati – and possibly War Pass -- one has to wonder about the WF’ers who felt that wind in New York.

How many WF’ers went by the wayside this past weekend? Six, eight, 10 whose connections were looking into hotel reservations in Louisville? So the system, you could say, is working. You can’t all come, lads, much as we’d like to have you. You’ll just have to except your WF chit and solider on.

In the Santa Anita Derby, Corey Nakatani and partner Colonel John found themselves positioned decently, but not winningly, with a couple of furlongs to run. The 37-year-old rider, who is the best athlete in the “room” out west and a guy who has made a career out of being fearless to a fault on a horse’s back, decided it was time then to get very busy. Which he did. Shifting his colt outward, then straightening him away in the lane, he threw crosses, drew his saber and went to whacking left-handed for about a half-dozen worth. The Colonel responded decently, but decently wasn’t going to get it inside the eighth pole. As the pair approached the sixteenth, the rider did that wonderful rider thing and switched his whip from left to right hand quicker than you can say “lickety-split” and landed a pair of solid blows on his mount’s rump. Ka-boom, The Colonel responded. That other gear that separates the very good ones from just the rest emerged and the big horse picked them up and put them down like he’d just jumped into the race. Quickly, he was a winner, and an even more solid one than his half-length margin would indicate. They never got close to him on the gallop out and his final eighth of nine in just about :12 is racehorse time.

“Distance is not a question with this horse,” said trainer Eoin Harty, the transplanted Irishman who made his name riding shotgun on the Triple Crown trail for Bob Baffert, but now will be driving the stagecoach on his own this year come the first Saturday in May. And unlike several of his likely foes in the 10-furlong crucible in Kentucky, The Colonel has that one most assuredly tucked in his back pocket.

Harty was direct with this thoughts and plans immediately after the Santa Anita race: “I’ll work him twice here, then ship to Churchill about 12 days out (which should be April 22, give or take a plane schedule or two). We’ll give him one work over the track, and pray.”

Give the horse’s history, some will ask if The Colonel can handle the Kentucky dirt after a half-dozen races on California synthetics. Some will bet against it. Some will be smarter. Bet against him if you’ve got a better horse; don’t bet against a horse like him not handling anything they lead him up to.

Some others will ask about Nakatani. He’s 0-for-13 in the Derby, they’ll note. Right, and he was 0-for-12 in the Santa Anita Derby until he got the right horse.

And Harty? The question was what did all those years down at the Baffert barn teach him about the days to come?

“I know about that media crush,” he said. “And all the inane questions.”

You bet, partner. Lots of that, and lots of those.

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patbateman

04/07/2008 8:12 am

Yeah Mac, I'm not sure Garrett Gomez is enjoying the decision to ride Court Vision over Colonel John. I'm not sure Court Vision can get to that top gear. I guess Nakatani may have had a commitment that was honored, or Gomez may have simply thrown him a bone thinking he'd surely be able to get a great mount elsewhere...

Denis of Cork last win, 2 months ago at a mile, is not enough to convince me of anything.

The Mig said Yankee Bravo can't get the distance.

How is El Gato Malo bet so heavily after that performance with the potential also that he may not have the earnings to run?

Atoned likely won't have the cash either.

Maybe Calvin Borel and Robby Albarado will both reappear in the Kentucky Derby this year, knocking out some fringe earnings bubble contenders who have to sit and watch now.

You really aren't a derby contender until they make a hat for you, so I'm hoping Colonel John has a hat made or he's a play against.

derbyme

04/07/2008 10:48 am

The new SA makes closing kicks from back in the pack look better than they are. Last week there was only 3 front running scores. THREE!! That's it, 2 in Maiden Claimers, and one "much the best winner." Also, few horses, if any, are able to run at the same level on that synth as they do on dirt. Tiago couldn't get a sniff on the new track then turned the tables on Heatseeker, who owns the top Beyer figure of the year. Heatseeker did run a winning race in Oaklawn, and he ran the same 110 figure he earned in the Big Cap, but there is a bit of a dispute on the time. Also Jerry Hollandorfer is as good as any trainer I've ever seen at getting a horse to run his race on multiple surfaces. Heatseeker's 7-3-1-1 turf record tends to support the hypothesis that turf horses win at the new SA. Some horses can do both well, few equally well, fewer both at the highest level. I'll take Bob Black Jack to move up on conventional dirt.

I'm a bit confused why no one has spoken of El Gato Malo's total implosion in the paddock. His tail never stopped swishing for one second, he was clearly uncomfortable and totally washed out. Everyone spoke of Elysium Fields falling apart before the FL. Derby, and when he was in the paddock, he had no lather, wasn't worked up at all. If anything, he looked lethargic. I've got some great photos to show it. It's possible they gave him a rince right before bringing him out, or that he lost it warming up, but in the paddock, he was a gentleman. Shame neither of them will get in, they both belong.

mike barker

04/07/2008 12:54 pm

NEW GRADED EARNINGS http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44129

Calvin Carter

04/07/2008 1:33 pm

derbyme,

Barclay Tagg is going to Elysium Fields another shot at the Roses in May in either the Toyota Bluegrass or the Arkansas Derby:

http://paulmoranattheraces.blogspot.com/

rumped6

04/07/2008 3:49 pm

Mac,

Nice work. Pleasure to read.

But: while I share some of your "entoooziazm" for this beautiful long-strider,
y'can't make anything resembling a reliable prediction about these West-Coasters and dirt, let alone CD dirt. The changing conditions from Del Mar to Hollywood to the circus that's been SA all winter, leave much in the realm of conjecture (and, to be sure, bigger rewards for those "conjecting" well).

One highly-respected East-Coast writer, e.g., had something "hideously wrong" with War Pass just after Tampa Bay, when the horse had no credible three-year old form, and no history on that distinctive surface, a combination sufficient to explain his dud, and more than sufficient when adding the demo-derby start.
Just so, the apparently favorable match of John's stride to the current track mix at SA may be sufficient to explain that visually-compelling run. I'll stay in Missouri for that one a while, as well as the puzzle of the Wood; I agree with Nick that his horse got more of what he needed losing on that challenging surface than he might have with an easy win at a 48+ pace on a typical stakes-day course, and agree with Paul Moran that Barclay's good words about Ekati may be worth payin' attention to, though Ole Grumpy has been a little more positive about his runners the last few years in public.
But a great puzzle for players: how much do pace and track account for John's dazzling look, how much an apparently other kind of earth for Ekati's pedestrian one? How genuinely fast is Pyro (his evidence of late from FG only)? How will Brown's feet like CD (and how much veterinary "help" might he have)? Will there be a cavalry charge with Brown, Pass, Glory, and possible entrant Bob-Jack? (Or are Kasparoff and Hofmans telling us something about the Santa Anita winner by not rushing to Kentucky, since, at this moment, without Blue Grass and Arkansas sums yet, the graded earnings hurdle doesn't look as daunting as it did last week?)
Will the respected speedballs let the unrespected go, coming out of Hawthorne, as happened a few years ago with a horse named War Emblem (upon whom, having made a nice win bet in Stickney's showcase, I only made a frustrating saver in Louisville's,
guessing, wrongly, they would not be that foolish!:-)
As of right now, I don't have a betting clue, and probably won't 'til the lines start to move that Friday.
In the meantime, thanks one and all for insights. They will help....

beebs4201

04/07/2008 5:37 pm

Does someone here have the Beyer numbers for the derby preps this past weekend?

patbateman

04/07/2008 5:39 pm

\"Recapturetheglory got the best Beyer Speed Figure, a 102. Colonel John got a 95, and Tale of Ekati a 93" says the DRF webpage.

mac

04/07/2008 6:18 pm

Rumped6 --
Massive. Don't believe I've ever seen so many opinions and had so many questions asked all in one post. You're a star.
Can't begin to answer all your questions, but let me just try to address one issue you raised: How the Santa Anita main track has been playing since the rennovation was done ---
Was talking to a wise racing type there Saturday (Jeff Tufts, their morning line maker and afternoon timer) about that very issue. He says he believes (after watching every race every day of the meet) that the track lacks a bias; that it plays fair virutally all the time. He points out the fact that for so many years the track was speed-favoring with an inside bias, so people began to all but expect a horse (or two or three) to jump out on top and just keep on going; that races would be over by the quarter pole. But now, with a balanced track, horses are able to win from stalking spots and from the back, if they are good enough. And being as how that has happened, and horses from off the pace can win, some folks now are seeing it as a bias toward those kind of horses, even though that is not the case. (Another element in this regard: the riders, knowing
You used Colonel John's closing victory in the Santa Anita Derby to make a case for a closer's bias. But, if you look at that race another way, I think you can make the exact opposite conclusion. If there was a closers bias on the track, the speed would have backed up at the end and the closers all would have come on. As it was, the two speed horses in the race (Coast Guard and Bob Black Jack) made the pace and kept on going at the end. One closer -- who evidence would suggest was the best horse in the field -- closed and got to the front late.
There are no guarantees that Colonel John (or any of the other west coast horses) will head to Kentucky and love the surface there and do well. Just as there aren't any for horses coming from Florida, New York or Illinois. But if the horse is good enough, I suggest that Churchill isn't going to bother him one way or another. Better horses might, but not the racetrack.
Two other quick thoughts: Beware one of several "synthetic" horses coming out of California to the dirt in Arkansas next week. Name of Gayego. He can run and he is very good hands.
Lastly, the Illinois Derby winner got a 102 Beyer and his folks are Derby bound with a statement that "we're going to the lead." Ah, don't you love the run-up to the Kentucky Derby!?

mac

04/07/2008 6:26 pm

Finishing a thought that got interruped by a phone call and not properly put down in the above reply:
Given the way the Santa Anita main track is playing -- fairly, that is -- the riders have adjusted their styles to it. Before, many of them would throw the reins at their horses coming out of the gate. The lead was the place to be if you wanted to win. But now, riders are taking more holds and looking to employ better tactical styles, which again bumps up the perception that speed cannot win on the track. Not true, if you're good enough. And if you're good enough is the key.

FASTLANE

04/07/2008 7:07 pm

Looking at the comparison splits, that looks like a low figure for Colonel John, but so go the way with Beyers and trying to understand synthetic. Every once in a while you just have to watch replays of races and decide who ran better in your opinion. It was a dazzling performance and so was Big Brown's(who does already have a hat, I like that BTW).In Nov., I saw Col. John at Hollywood and thought he looked great but thought no kentucky derby top three finishers would come off synthetic. He has matured greatly and fits in everyway(races as a 2Yo, stakes winner, good last prep,DI,everything but Beyer) but with the synthetic and after sat. I lay awake wondering. He takes those long strides like a "dirt horse" and not like the ones who usually prove to be best over synthetic with short quick "action". What if he is the Bsharpsonata of the colts and runs well over everything? Who knows, I certainly don't, I'm rambling. On the flipside, Tale of Ekati has been in my top three to five since last nov. and he finally gets some validation. He seems more mature than Nobiz last year and Barclay Tagg might be set. Don't know if he has a hat yet, but I bet Pyro does somewhere....

Cdpotato4

04/07/2008 7:15 pm

ha.

validation on tale of ekati.

ha.

1:52^2!

FASTLANE

04/07/2008 7:35 pm

In case you're unaware, all times have been slower this year, genius.

FASTLANE

04/07/2008 7:51 pm

Salute the Sarge? I know he qualifies on earnings and I saw him at Del Mar. Like him at less than a mile, but cover in the derby future.....?????? he'll be lucky to walk across the line.

mac

04/07/2008 8:00 pm

Gentlemen, gentlmen. We here in the College of Horse Racing Knowledge always try to give our fellow students the benefit of the doubt and a courteous response. Tweak if you want, but make it a nice -- not naughty -- one, please.

Fastlane -- Salute the Sarge headed to Lexington. If he runs OK there, they want to go.

mike barker

04/07/2008 10:44 pm

VISIONAIRE!!!!!!!!!!!!

FASTLANE

04/08/2008 7:00 am

I'm aware of his plans....and his pedigree.

Cdpotato4

04/08/2008 11:09 am

FASTLANE,

Are you speaking of the pedigree that has Storm Cat/Secretariat present on the sire's side and Mr. Prospector on the dam's?

Here is what I wrote in a previous blog...

""In his first race since the Juvenile, Salute the Sarge won the San Miguel at Santa Anita in runaway fashion, defeating 2 stakes winners at 3y in Leonides and Sea of Pleasure.

He already has the graded earnings to make the field on May 3rd. Trainer Eric Gulliot and company will point him towards the Lexington Stakes as his final derby prep.

The hope is that he can stretch out as many feel he is simply a sprinter. His pedigree says sprinter, but if you look deeper Storm Cat/Secretariat are found on his sire's side while the great Mr. Prospector is on the dam's side. This is proof that he may be able to go longer and if he can he may be a derby contender.

The last derby winner to come out of the Lexington Stakes was Charasmatic in 1999 who nearly won the Triple Crown. He also shipped from Santa Anita to Keeneland that year for his final prep. Another interesting comparison- Charasmatic's Grand Sire is Storm Bird- Great-grand Sire of Salute the Sarge.""

timbercool

04/08/2008 12:45 pm

Nice blog mic,

Can you give us an update on some contenders.

Tomcito: is it true they will try the lexignton, if he rans good do they go?
Yankee Bravo: In, out graded earning question?
Casino Drive: Any news on this posible star?
Big Truck: Were next, are they going.
Anak Nakal: In or Out?
Liberty Bull: Any news on him?

Thnx.

derbyme

04/08/2008 1:01 pm

Over the last 5 racing days there have been exactly 4 wire to wire winners at SA on the main track. One of them (Dr. Au Jus) was a favorite who made an uncontested lead through :12 second splits at a mile. One of them tired late and swerved in cutting off the favorite who was coming on the rail and had to be taken up. The other two were MSW for two year olds at 2f.

Mac,
Numbers don't like. The course disfavors speed. Except for 2f races. And whatsmore, it disfavors horses with dirt form (often speed). I've yet to see a horse with good dirt form transfer that form to the new SA. I've seen many with good turf form do it. Few if any with dirt form. Heatseeker paired 110 figs at SA and Oaklawn, but he had turf form and Hollandorfer can get them to run their races underwater or on a glacier. Colonel John might be one of the vary rare horses that displays equal ability on turf, SA Synth, and dirt, but in the admittedly small sample size, I just haven't really seen it.

Finally, has Frankel moved his whole stable to Keeneland or did he ship Ventura especially for the Wed. feature? She seems live off her downhill effort, and I was thinking of a box with the fleet footed Zada Belle. Thoughts?

barryrmitchell

04/08/2008 1:06 pm

Mike PYRO?????????????????

Mac Mac Mac, are you now on board with Colonel John, What does your Derby list look like NOW?

Most of your choice were WIFI out! Who left for you?

Mr. Derby, my mouth is closed. I'll keep my word and my place in the hall of shame!

From here on out, I going to take the 90 beyers horses.

PYRO and COLONEL JOHN, can't wait to see them move in tandem at Churchill Downs

Cdpotato4

04/08/2008 2:22 pm

Timbercool,

Big Truck- Blue Grass is possible
Liberty Bull- Likely for Arkansas

mac

04/08/2008 4:19 pm

Timbercool --
As best as I can tell:
Tomcito headed to the Lexington. He's at Keeneland and scheduled to work there tomorrow.
Yankee Bravo -- Doesn't have money to get in Derby. Guessing they'll put him back on turf.
Casino Drive -- Where'd you come up with him? Mineshaft colt with one start -- back in February in Japan where he won a maiden race. See he's named on Triple Crown list, but that's all I see as far as anything U.S. oriented. What do you know?
Big Truck -- Worked this morning at Keeneland for Tagg and got a bullet for his :46 3/5. Tagg might run him in Blue Grass, but wanted to see how he came out of work. Entries for Blue Grass taken tomorrow.
Anak Nakal -- He's got the graded earnings ($212,216) to run in Derby. Otherwise.... As with many of these things, it'll come down to the owner's wishes, or ego.
Liberty Bull -- Will run in the Arkansas Derby. He's got next to nothing for graded stakes earnings and would have to run first or second in that race to qualify.

Derbyme --
I'm not going to convince you that Santa Anita plays fair. Amen.
Frankel has not moved whole stable to Keeneland. I'd guess he shipped Ventura there because he saw a race for her and couldn't find one in California. As you know, there's only one way to find out if your box is a good one --- bet it. Good luck.

Barrymitchell -- What's not to like about Colonel John? What's not to like about Pyro? And I want to see how Gayego runs in Arkansas this Saturday. Finally, what about that Adriano horse? Like that trainer. Just maybe.

patbateman

04/08/2008 7:57 pm

Mac,

Hey did you see the photo from the Tiago vs. Heatseeker thriller? I still haven't seen it nor has anyone I have talked to about it. It looked really close but I thought Tiago hit the line fully extended even though his body was slightly behind. How close was it?

So does anyone think Cowboy Cal is going to do anything big this weekend? Kip Deville defends his Maker's Mark Mile title friday and Dutrow is rolling right now, but there are some good horses in that race.

Does anyone think we'll see some horse run a big speed figure this weekend?

Cdpotato4

04/08/2008 9:01 pm

I predict a not so big speed figure in the Blue Grass.

But the 2008 Kentucky Derby Winner will come out of that race.

mac

04/08/2008 9:14 pm

Patbateman --
Haven't seen the photo, but have seen the race. You can go to Blood-Horse site and see it again if you wish.

Cdpotato4 --
So history shall repeat itself, huh. The folks who run Keeneland would like that.

patbateman

04/08/2008 9:34 pm

hey Mac, if you can't win the derby, there are always other avenues of competition to pursue....

updated 2:57 p.m. ET, Tues., April. 8, 2008

Dubai's crown prince bought a camel for a record $2.7 million during a desert festival in the emirate of Abu Dhabi.

Sheik Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the son of Dubai's ruler Sheik Mohammed and his heir apparent, bought 16 camels for $4.5 million during a camel beauty pageant taking place during a desert carnival that aims to preserve the nomadic way of life in the oil-rich Gulf.

Sheik Hamdan paid $2.7 million for one camel, Emirates' state news agency reported Tuesday. It gave no details on the camel.

mike barker

04/08/2008 11:29 pm

hahahahah camels thats funny.....Yes Barry Pyro and Visionaire are my top 2 no matter what happens saturday.....Hey pat i think Cowboy Cal and CCM might just hook up in a duel what do you think?? We will see a big figure if those two hook up in some solid fractions if not ill take a guess and say 98...Im hoping average because i dont want to see my top 2 picks going all out in this race......

mac

04/09/2008 9:16 am

Yeah, but I heard that $2.7-mil two humper can't go two turns.

mike barker

04/09/2008 10:05 am

derbyme i like your horse Ventura in Keenelands feature race#8 today, ill box her with my horse......Im looking to knock the whole apple cart over with CARRIAGE TRAIL shes had one start since last May getting 2nd down at Gulfstream so today she will be alot tighter...She did run at Keeneland once at 7 furlongs a won so i know she will take to the track...Check out her work after she came out of that last race April 6 she went 3 furlongs 34'4 at Keeneland whew~~!! 9-1 odds across the board now thats JUICY...

Cdpotato4

04/09/2008 12:45 pm

Mike,

I have to agree. Lots to like at 9-1. Has a great race at the same distance over this track.

Also like the #11 in RACE 6 at 8-1. Another one who seems to like the track and is training phenomenally.

I may include some favorites and play a nice P3 with the 2,7 in the 7th.

mike barker

04/09/2008 1:30 pm

$750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland April 12, 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds, Polytrack

1.Cool Coal Man, Kent Desormeaux, 4-1
2.Kentucky Bear, Jamie Theriot, 50-1
3.Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez, 15-1
4.Stevil, no rider, 30-1
5.Monba, Edgar Prado, 15-1
6.Big Truck, Eibar Coa, 6-1
7.Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan, even money
8.Stone Bird, Corey Lanerie, 50-1
9.Medjool, Michael Baze, 30-1
10.Miner’s Claim, Patrick Husbands, 20-1
11.Halo Najib, Garrett Gomez, 15-1
12.Visionaire, Jose Lezcano, 6-1

mike barker

04/09/2008 3:46 pm

Ventura wins nice hit derby i think carriage trail is still running i wish i would a had the exacta.....Readys Echo is in Saturday at Keeneland in the first race i know you member him last time out....He should stomp them...

CAMCHLOE

04/09/2008 6:10 pm

mike

Anything for Thursday at Keeneland?

barryrmitchell

04/09/2008 9:12 pm

Mike who get's your money this weekend, PYRO or VISIONAIRE?

Where is Blackberry Road showing up? I am still high on this horse!

patbateman

04/09/2008 9:21 pm

Mac, I think the camel's pedigree suggests he'll like the turf...

I don't know what to think of the Blue Grass. I think I can handicap the California synthetics fairly well, or at least Santa Anita and Hollywood. But I have had a tough time with Del Mar and and other Polytrack brand tracks, but I agree that Cool Coal Man and Cowboy Cal should be up front early. I think Pyro needs to be off the pace a little more than last time to deliver his best. I like Medjool, who was stuck in the widest post against Adriano on Polytrack and looked pretty strong down the lane. He could still improve further and I like him in the superfecta at least. Cool Coal Man has a lot to prove in my book, but I am trying to keep an open mind, bet very little on this race, and probably play Arkansas a little more. If I had to guess I'd say:

1. Pyro
2. Medjool
3. Cowboy Cal
4. Big Truck

patbateman

04/09/2008 9:24 pm

Mike, I think we could see a big figure in Arkansas and around a 100 in Keeneland. I like Visionnaire but in this race I'm laying off with post 12.

FASTLANE

04/09/2008 9:42 pm

http://www.drf.com/news/article/93570.html

I have a great deal of respect for an owner and trainer that know their horse and will allow a horse with a chance on pedigree and not earnings in the derby. They took the high road. Good luck to them if Salute the Sarge runs in the Preakness.

Interested to see Pyro and Cool Coal Man. Agree the Derby winner is probable out of this race. Could we see the slowest derby time ever this year?

derbyme

04/09/2008 10:22 pm

Mike,

Thanks on Ventura, she looked good. I wish I had that exacta too, but had a bit on her to win at 4-1. My Baby Baby got me again, dropping out of the exacta box in the last jump.

Me thinks Golden Doc A is sitting on a monster effort and may catch Ariege this time...

Makers Mark/Commenwealth, I'm only going to say it once: Thousand Words.

mike barker

04/09/2008 10:35 pm

Tomorrow Oaklawn should be posting for the derby i think thats where your horse will be entered Barry BBR......I might not bet the Bluegrass as far as a win bet maybe just some pic 3's ....Im rooting for Pyro and Visionaire but my mind says Pyro could take it easy because hes a shoe in for graded earnigs and maybe Visionaire is the play since hes kind of on the bubble......Camchloe as you know i always look for prices and i play across the board....Keenelands first i like Fast Commander 8-1 and keenelands 6th i like Spring Illusion 8-1 .....Saturday at Keeneland i love Readys Echo in the first, his last race off the layoff was just filth he was motoring like a train at Gulfstream he must of been like 25 out of it......

mike barker

04/09/2008 10:39 pm

derbyme i looked at that race i like that horse but hes in the parking lot...I would have to go with Storm Military because hes on the bounce this time for a win......GOOD LUCK

mike barker

04/09/2008 10:47 pm

Sorry Readys Echo is in the 7th Saturday

derbyme

04/09/2008 10:56 pm

Mike,

Solid horse, usually a bit rank, will probably enjoy the cutback. Frankel v. Frankel. I am excited to see Ready's Echo catch a track which favors his style. I always thought he'd eventually find his home on the turf and this could be that stepping stone.

Mcmitch

04/09/2008 10:57 pm

Can't believe how overlooked Big Truck has been. That dude is versatile, has speed, can rate, has heart, and appears to have stamina. I think the Top 20 lists reflect short memories. I'd can't find a way to knock him. But I tell y'all, Atoned will win some big races this year. That dude can move.

TheCapper

04/10/2008 12:19 am

I would have to agree with you Mcmitch... BigTruck has been overlooked majorly.

So excited for the derby this year, it's going to be awesome!

I should be using picks from this site, cuz they did really well last year:

http://www.winningponies.com/results/picks/tips/Kentucky-Derby-2007.html

SoCalAl

04/10/2008 10:46 am

Hello Mac,
I don't know aboutthese guys who try to guess that Gomez gave up the mount on Colonel John and al that jazz. I told you 6 weeks ago Nakatani would be back on the Colonel and it had nothing to do with Gomez.. The Colonel was a pick up ride for Gomez when Nakatani got hurt but once he was well enough to ride, he was getting his mount back.
Back at Holly Park Naka said that Colonel John was a monster and that he would not trade or switch or want to ride any other colt around except the Colonel. Now I know Naka is a little lazy at the wire once in a while but every time they give him a Lit De Justice type the fire in his eyes shines brightly. That is what is happening with Colonel John. Expect don't think, expect a solid effort from Nakatani in the Kentucky Derby. Colonel John has already proven he can win from all angles.
Now for all those that thought El Gato Malo this and el Gato Malo that, remember the time before last Colonel John, beat him at his own game, how then can The Bad Cat beat the Colonel at his best game.
As far as the times at SA, last years fast time colts around the country blew up in smoke. Circular Quay, Curlin, Nobiz Like Show Biz, Any Given Saturday, all had the best times and blew out. Pletcher had 5 colts entered and with the opportunity to leave a donkey on the rail, instead he opens a whole like a full back for Street Sence to run the shortest and least route of resistance. After that he could not win.
I have rarely seen the best colt in the Kentucky Derby win the derby. It's like the Breeders Cup Juvinelle, run that race 1o times and you will probobly get ten different results, especially the Kentucky Derby.
So with that said, it is not so much about whether or not you can find the best colt in the bunch, but it also intails a tremendous amount of luck or things to go your way. I truly believe that the best prepared are the connections that have back up plans to the back up plan in the Kentucky Derby.
I was so disapointed with the Dennis of Cork performance but I knew I would be in one way or another disapointed by one of the colts i was rooting for. So the Colonel made me cheer so much I almost lost my voice and you could pick up my heart from the floor when Dennis of Cork ran. I still think he is a colt to deal with down the line, I hope he gets a chance to redeem himself.
As far as the coming week-end keep your eyes on Halo Najib, he was by far the best last out and the connections need some graded cash to secure a spot in the K Derby. I would not be shocked to see Gomez stick with this mount but I can say this Court Vision is no chopped liver and believe you me that his connection are all the more intrested in getting him to fire on the 1st Sat in may and the colt will have a top joc sitting on his back. This colt is for real, watch out..

Kentucky Derby Top Five So Far

1. Colonel John
2. Court Vision
3. Pyro
4. Halo Najib
5. Dennis of Cork

You all have a great week-end
SoCalal

barryrmitchell

04/10/2008 6:25 pm

Thanks Mike for the info. Maybe I will get 7-1 odds or better. Nice play.

McMitch the problem is BIG TRUCK runs on diesel fuel. The Kentucky Derby is purely octane fuel only.

SoCal, I agree with your observation on Colonel John. If the horse would have won the Cash Call G1, his record would be perfect going two turns and probably a heavy second choice in the wagering of the Kentucky Derby.

Now SoCal and Mike, you two have to stop having these VISION.

Not healthy for your pockets. No VISIONAIRE (Mike), no COURT VISION (SoCal). These are nightmare choices.

Actually at 3-miles and beyond, I take the 2.7 million dollar CAMEL straight up anyone.

hai, hai-hai, twet, twet-twet that how you talk to the CAMEL, my little "betowe"

SoCalAl

04/10/2008 9:25 pm

Barry,
I am not right about to many things but I pride myself in handicapping, hmmm, if I only had the patience to be a spot player. Anyway Court Vision is a colt with high expectations, all kidding aside, the connections have been just running this one wide in every race and if you look at the his priors, check out what happens when they switch the whip from the left to the right every time. It is like clock work, that colt kicks it in every time.
Don't expect this one to be going wide all around in the Kentucky as he has been in the last couple. I think they did that on purpose to put bottom on him and now they are primed and ready to roll on a rail saving trip in mid pack where Gomez, or whom ever will be looking for an inside move or at the very worst a wide move into the last turn with one go at it. If it goes there way, watch out...

SoCalAl

Cdpotato4

04/10/2008 10:34 pm

1:52^2

Oh and he finished a distant 3rd

derbyme

04/11/2008 9:54 am

I'm so disappointed in Court Vision I don't even know what to say. He has the look of a horse with good juvenile form who was flat babyed as a sophomore and now he's not far enough along. This is a horse who's lazy early and pours it on late which means he doesn't have to be as fit, but that it's also harder to get him fit. Mott violated the three prep rule, and now he's got a short horse without enough bottom to go 10f at his best. I think maybe the FOY was an ambitious spot to bring him back and they were hoping for 3 preps but he didn't come back well. I don't know. All I can say is that I'm disappointed.

vjg515

04/13/2008 1:11 am

YANKEE BRAVO, i think peaks at the right time for patty G. sits a good trip behind all the speed and mow's em all down. 2-3 starts he broke slowly and managed to relax,and fly down the lane. forget about big brown, war pass, pyro,colonel john, gayego,if yankee bravo gets a good trip and pp it's all over.i also think the churchill dirt track is a big+ for a grinder like bravo, price should be nice too.