Three Dots and a Cloud of Dust

Geez...I swear this horse is mentioned far too much on this site.

Tomcito is AWFUL!!! It is as simple as that, AWFUL!!!

And Mac, I know you are just giving us some news and knowledge so I don't exactly blame you. But I do blame all those who hype this horse.

He is AWFUL!!! I can't wait until he finished out of the money on Saturday. Salute the Sarge and Sporting Art will be on top in the Lexington. And if Flying Dismount goes, he will be in the mix with the those 2.

I seriously can't wait. That horse is AWFUL!!! And I am sick of reading his name!

AWFUL!!! AWFUL!!! AWFUL!!!

In the Florida Derby he had the perfect trip sitting in the 2-path well off of the very fast fractions set by BB. Watch the replay!!! All he did was exactly what he did against dump donkeys in Peru!!! He passed the tired ones late!!! If you watch the stretch run, he didn't gain a length on BB or Smooth Air!!! As a matter of a fact, he lost 5 lengths to BB after he was only 7 1/2 back entering the stretch to lose by 12 1/2!!! He lost 3 lenghts to Smooth Air throughout the stretch that e entered only 4 1/2 back of that rival and lost to him by 7 1/2!!!

AWFUL!!! AWFUL!!!

Sorry guys, I just needed to vent by frustration. I may have to do it again if I see his name in the future so be prepared.

Nothing against you Mac, this message is mostly meant for Tomcito supporters. But please don't mention him again because it just makes me flip out like this.

Mac, nice work. I'm still in the take a deep breath part of your advice. Yeah Garrett Gomez, thats an interesting one...if Prado stays on Adriano then Pletcher already has a good relationship with Gomez and I'm sure he'd try to get him on one of his 2, if indeed Cowboy Cal runs for the roses. I think you are right about Cowboy Cal though, I'm not sure I'd run him in the derby with all the speed already signed up.

Big Brown will definitely earn it this year if he does pull it off, the pace should be nasty. But at the same time, Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry were supposed to compromise the front runners in 2006 and Barbaro acted like they weren't even on the track. So my reasoning goes that if you like Big Brown to win, you have to believe he is of Curlin, Street Sense or Barbaro quality, and if you think he is less than that you should try to beat him.

I'd like to see Big Truck make the race, he looks good and upon further reflection I can't rule him or Cool Coal Man out of the superfecta. I think Big Truck has done more than Tomcito to earn a spot in the race, and it would be a shame to see him excluded. Denis of Cork would be very lucky to get it, but if he does he will have some backers.

Potato...

I am so happy that you find the need to write such an exotensive response when the horse was mentioned once in this long article...

he may be awful o you but he did finish third in a grade I...I cant imagine what derrogatory comments you must have for other 5,000 thoroughbreds that run in this country and have yet to place in a grade I race...

but it is your opinion, as right or wrong it may be, it only shows that you must be rather new at handicapping...read the Q&A given by Steve Romans (you know who he is right?)

Anyway come saturday, if he wins or comes second, we are in the Derby, quite an accomplishment for such an awful thoroughbred, dont you think?

And then, I want to read a nice comment from you...or at least admt your wrong doing...

See you in Keeneland....

I just reliazed you probably wont know Dr Steve Romans, so Ithought i would cut and past the applicable section below:

"Question - Please give us you thoughts on how the pace of this
Kentucky Derby might set up.

Answer - Speculating on which horses might be entered based on
current graded stakes earnings, I expect Big Brown and
War Pass to go to the lead early, with Pyro, Court
Vision, and Visionaire at the back. The others would
be in between with their placing determined by post
position, break, trip, etc. I think War Pass will
start to fade on the turn as Indian Sun, Gayego,
Visionaire and Colonel John advance. Big Brown will
weaken in the stretch drive with an additional
challenge coming from Pyro. But don't hold me to it
;-)

Question - What are your thoughts on this Derby Trail?

Answer - This is an unusual year in that there are no
individuals among the leading graded stakes earners
which express the broad array of traditional Derby
winner characteristics. Those which seem to have the
right kind of pedigree or running style don't appear
to be very fast. Those that are fast appear unsuited
to 10f or lack experience. I don't usually buy into
"the race is wide open" mantra, but this group comes
pretty close. On the other hand, if Tomcito wins with
a big effort in the Lexington, he could fulfill nearly
all the necessary requirements and should win the derby.
But thats a big 'if'."

And thats not coming from me...

Cheers Potato...

The Nakatani rumor... I hope is untrue. Yes, I know he's 0-13 at the Derby. Somebody will have to educate me as to whether any of the 13 were true contenders? I'd actually like to see Nakatani retain the mount. I like the way he keeps CJ off the pace... usually 5-6 back. I think he'll need to be at least that many lengths off of this year's Derby pace. I'm expecting a 1.10-1.11 6 furlongs. With the sole Gomez ride at a distance on CJ in the Sham, he kept him right on the pace, never more than a length off. That may have been because they ran so slow but there's no way he should be that close in the Derby. At any rate, I don't have problems with Nakatani and hope he retains the ride.

Scripa,

Like I said before, as a handicapper I do not believe this horse belongs at all. And I see it as a terrible attempt at fame if he runs in the derby. He doesn't belong and he would get killed.

But if I were you and had the earnings I would run him too! Just for the derby experience, it is awesome from your perspective.

But from a handicapper's perspective, it is absurd to think this horse has any chance of hitting the board on the 1st Saturday in May.

As I said before, I would not be the least suprised if he missed the money on Saturday.

Good luck though! And it's good to have you back!

Well written blog. Potato might have gotten the ire of the owner...Did I read "we"??? I am rooting for the Big Peruvian...out of Street Cry no less. Dude can't say a horse running 3rd in gI off in a Namerica debut is awful, can he? Steve Romans analyis is legit but only on the front end. Who knows how far the speed will carry, or how far back the others will be. The horse that HAS been awful this year is Anak Nakal, who I can't seem to toss because of the way he ran in CD in the JC Gold, and that Victory Gallup pedigree. He'll be a 100 to 1. When was the last time you had a horse run 8, 7, 5th as a 3yo old and enter? Ugh!

Sripa1212 if you're connected to Tomcito, where can we view vids of Tomcito winning the GI's in Peru.

Not a huge CNak fan, but think CJ's best chance is with him. Gomez is getting to be a little too "cute" with closers and Bejarano will pass him eventually as best jock this year despite the injury.

Behindatthebar is a great/good synthetic horse. Could be wrong, but thought he tried dirt up north (CA) and didn't fair as well. Yes I know he might look good this week-end(synth), but derby? Still a lot of sprint there and not much in the way of classic pedigree. Still think Flores was better with him(in ITM chances,not earnings) than with Bob Black Jack, guess we might see. i don't feel either have a chance at the tri and maybe not the super.

As for Tomcito, my wife and I would love to see him run well. I've been pushing on people since way back with the mentioning he;d come back to America. Agree he's got a lot to prove , but so does the rest of this group. I'm not even sure Eight Belles won't hit the money if she runs in the derby over the Oaks.

McMitch, go to youtube to watch the Peru races.

Potato I kind of agree with you, but not in the Derby. I dont think he has a chance on Saturday. For some reason I have seen a lot of races at Keenland so far on the Poly favor speed more than the closers it usually does. I think he is going to be so far back and is shortening up, so I see a 3rd place finish at best. Dont know who is in the race yet but someone else will win. I wouldnt go as far to say that he is AWFUL but I do think he has a future, maybe not in this country because he needs longer distances. I think he actually has a better chance to the Derby than he does this weekend. Anyway good luck to the owner but toss a little cheese elsewhere.

Go Big Brown, Cowboy Cal and Court Vision.

slot33,

Most of Nakatani's derby mounts have not been true contenders. He rode Great Hunter, Ap Warrior, AP Valentine, Anees, and Serena's Song. Those were probably the best horses he has ridden. He rode Wilko to a surprising 5th place finish in 05 at huge odds. Nakatani is a pro and he will not compromise the chances of any horse that he gets aboard.

Potato, Not sure if you are right about Tomcito yet? I thought he ran a very nice third in the FL Derby. He was lost on the first turn, dropped way back and made a very good run around the far turn. Him and Hey Burn were the only two horse to come off the pace that day. If he makes it to CH and that long stretch drive I would never count him out of being able to hit the board. Did anyone else notice how bow legged this horse is???

Mac, I agree about the Cloud of dust. But that is what makes this race so much fun to handicapp and bet. Should be plenty of speed, stalkers and closers, and so far this is how I rank them. I sure wish more horses would come here to CH for workouts a couple weeks out? Then we could maybe get an idea of how some of them like the dirt.

Speed - Big Brown
Stalker - Col John
Closer - Pryo
Heart - Court Vision (too slow?, but might just prove everyone wrong when it counts)

yup, yup

Thanks Mac!

Cdpotato4,

If Tomcito beat up on a bunch of "dump donkeys" in South America then what were those contenders he thrased in the Florida Derby - "pack mules"? And don't forget, since then Hey Byrn went on to win the Holy Bull.

I hope that Tomcito makes it into the Kentucky Derby. I am a bit concerned about the shorter 1 1/16 distance. However, I believe that the addition of Tomcito would make for a more interesting Derby that could possibly favor closers with all of the speed of War Pass, Recapturetheglory, Gayego, Cowboy Cal and Big Brown mixing it up on the front end.

Another thing to consider is that Tomcito is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector bloodline which has produced 8 of the past 13 (62%) Kentucky Derby winners. Other horses from the line include Court Vision, Z Humor, Anak Nakal and maybe Eight Belles. You can bet that I'll give all of them a close look on Derby Day.

I would say Tomcito's run was respectable given the long layoff he had. He finished 12 and a half lengths back from BB whom everyone has been talking about as if he's the next Man of War.

I'm interested to hear other's thoughts on Court Vision. I feel in love with the horse after his two wins in 2007. He looked fairly average in the Fountain of Youth, very green but closed well. Is he just too slow? I still think he has a better shot at winning the Derby then War Pass, as he's got the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter. This field is definitely wide open. Big Brown as a 2 or 3 to one favorite off 3 races?!?! Give me a break. He may win, but he's going to have all kinds of company on May 5th. I would say given Gayego's performance over the weekend on dirt, Colonel John is the one to beat.

I think we are all in agreement that Mr. Potato overreacted. I hope his comments were not fueled by xenophobia!

Clearly a horse who has travelled from one continent to another to run for the first time in 5 months in a Grade 1 deserves a little leeway. Especially when that horse finishes third beating NA Graded Stakes winners and other highly regarded 3 year olds. Even better when validated by Hey Byrn coming back to win next out.

I think that Tomcito actually has a great chance in the Lexington. Sure he won at a mile and 1/4 and a mile and 1/2 in Peru. That was clearly against inferior opposition. I think he would have beaten them at 5/8 of a mile. See Keenland work. I actually think the mile and 1/16 will be right up his alley against tougher competition. He did tire at Gulfstream though I forgive him for that.

Progeny of Street Cry has run well at Keenland. See Street Sounds. It is true Street Sense didn't care for it that much but he clearly didn't hate it.

Look for Tomcito to be 1-2 in the lexington and make ther Derby field. Even if he doesn't win or place he DEFINATELY adds interesting to the most interesting race in the world!

No need to hate Potato.

I still can't believe you guys think that Garrett Gomez has a shot to take (steal) the mount off of Corey Nakatani on Colonel John. For get it it Corey's mount and that's that. You put Garrett on Colonel and I jump off the band wagon immediately. Corey was made for this colt....
As far as Tomcito, I would really have to see something special Sat to even consider him in the $ at the Derby..
I will let the cat or that is colt out of the bag right now, three weeks out and let you know that this is not a year of weak colts but rather a year full of talent. We will see many good races even after the triple crown and unless there is a Secretariat or Affirmed or even a Point Given in this bunch, we will see many different exchanges in grade one victors this year. It makes for an exciting year of wagering...
Still yet and then, I think your winner is one of the following.

Colonel John
Court Vision
Visionaire
Pyro
Tale of Ekati

Remember when everyone wrote off Street Sense last year after his performance in the Bluegrass, The tuff fight he had to win the Tampa Derby. I can't believe all the people who have just worte off War Pass. I know BB, Col. John, Gayego, and Momba have all had big races last week, but it was just that, last week or last month. BB has won 3 races, War Pass was undefeated too when he lost his first, and it was very dismial at best.
When Derby Day gets here you can expect War Pass, Pyro along with BB, Col John to be there. There are many factors involved in winning the derby, being a great horse is just a start. When you put 20 horses out there to run the race, many things can happen. Starting with all the bumping and grinding at the start. The two or three horses that clear, War Pass, BB and maybe Recapturetheglory should clear. The four or five other horses that don't have too much trouble, maybe Pyro, Gayego, Col. John, Tale of Ekati and perhaps Cool Coal man to come closing. But the trouble at the start will mean which one of these will close, and how far they will have to come. I'm not saying I will be all over War Pass, But he will be on top with others in ALL my exotic plays.

As much as Potato hates Tomcito, I hate Court Vision. He has been very slow his whole carreer. The Derby is ALWAYS won by a horse who is fast enough! He has about as much hope as Blackberry Road would have had. I said it somewhere else: He is not even in the top 5 closers. I give those awards to Colonel John, Pyro, Visionaire, Z fortune and Denis of Cork. I'd bet that CV doesn't finish in front of any of those 5 far less be in the first 10! If he wins I'll eat my hat for the world to see. I don't know who will win but i'd take 1/9 that he'd lose all the way to the bank. lol.

Bob,

I don't think sending Street Sense off as the 7/2 fave quite amounts to "writing him off". More people wanted to see how he worked going in, and he worked like a monster. If Colonel John puts in a work on dirt like his work before the Santa Anita, well I'll have to reconsider him (it was an awesome work). War Pass should be plenty fit and ready to roll, however, he's yet to run nearly as fast as he ran last year, and I don't think it's because he's worse, I think it's because he's running further. Still, he can hit the board on talent alone, but think he's a bigger threat for the win in the Preakness. I have no idea what to do with Tale of Ekati, but Edgar wants off I want off.

I know last year's top 2 prepped well on poly and ran better on dirt, but both showed good dirt form prior to that (and I still think Hard Spun may have actually been a turf horse). However, last year's Breeders Cup showed was a different story. I believe Idiot Proof and Awesome Gem were the only horses to hit the board after coming off of a synth prep, and Idiot Proof's form was clearly better on dirt while Gem's was, perhaps, neutral. I know a ton of people love Colonel John, and he may well win the Breeder's Cup Classic, however, I've seen almost no horses run at the same level on synth and dirt. Point 1. I feel like Tiznow is an especially strong synth sire, though I don't have numbers... Point 2. If he's better on dirt, then he's been beating horses who move up on synth over a surface that moves him down, in which case he's far superior (Zenyatta). Not out of the realm of possibility, but the law of averages says it's more likely that he moved up on synth more than or equal to everyone else. Point 3. Hysterical Lady effect. Good dirt horses tend to not run their races over the synth against top class synth runners. (Not including Pyro or Proud Spell cuz Keeneland is its own category) Bobby Frankel would rather ship to take on Zenyatta on dirt with Ginger Punch than take on Nashoba's Key on synth. Baffert cost Indian Blessing a shot at the Oaks with all the shipping she did to get away from the synth. Zayat sent their horses East to get away from it. Point 4. The Street Sense effect. It makes synth look good when a horse preps on it, then wins. However, the step forward had little to do with the synth and everything to do with the dirt. His previous 2 starts earned Beyer figs of 108 (BC Juv.) and 102 (Tampa Derby) before dipping to 93 in the Blue Grass and jumping back to 110 for the Derby. That's about his usual race, with the Blue Grass an abberation.

In fact, I can't come up with more than 1 horse who has won a Gr.1 on dirt and synth... Lava Man, who's also a Gr.1 winner on Turf, and he was better on regular dirt than synth. Maybe Colonel John will be the second, but he hasn't struck me as a miles the best type. My guess is Johnny Eves does it sometime, but if not, maybe Zenyatta in the Breeder's Cup. BTW, after Pyro's flop, is there a chance Asmussen doesn't send Curlin? Maybe once Curlin gets beat by Go Between and Big Booster in the classic people might start rethinking the dirt/synth relationship.

Derbyme,
I think that was a great point. I think you could possibly see more European Turf horses in the Classic than there are in the turf with the synthetic surface. maybe Aidan O'Brian will finally get his classic winner. This may be the reason turf horses such as cowboy Cal and Adriano ran so well on the poly. I just think a horse that has at least run well on dirt before will win the Derby. I think I am going to toss CJ. I would rather take a green, unexperienced Big Brown than CJ who hasnt stepped foot in dirt. Just my opinion.

Mac, Prado made a bad choice, should have taken Monba or Tale of Ekati.

CP I am with you, Calvin I am "shock", but I won't separate with from you with your pedigree experience.

But here is my take!

Tomcito who! (answer to who is below) and Sripe on the menu again! Butter up!

Come on, "really", the work in 34 and change is not that good. Their team had all winter to condition the horse, and changing tactics for speed because the distance is shorter, is not good training move. I am sure I will hear from Mr Sripe on this, but hay, what your going to do type me to boredom, sharpening the horse up for a 1 1/16, then drill him slower for 1 1/4 in two weeks, That makes a lot of sense and in fact thats really insane training. I have not forgotten Sripe comment, Tomcito who! was only 80% ready for the Florida Derby. I wonder what the percentage is now? Mr. Sripe care to comment? Because if he loses, as I believe he will horribly, will you also write back to us and say, the horse just simply doesn't have what it takes? since you desire to hear CP give comment on;

And then, I want to read a nice comment from you...or at least admt your wrong doing...

Well the door swings both ways my friend. I want you to admit your wrong doing in hyping up a allowance horse.(My opinion)

No horse from the Lexington should be considering the Kentucky Derby, two weeks is two weeks, they should eliminate the Lexington entirely from the picture.

Yea sure someone out there will say Showing Up race was huge. But getting a ticket punch to the big dance is far different then participating.

Showing Up lost all chances in Kentucky by running two weeks earlier.

Mr Sripe with butter,
I would really consider, if the horse could make the dance with graded earning, at least think about what best for the horse, like skipping the derby and race for the Preakness and the Belmont. Some great trainer have skip the big dance and found greener pasture down the way. The Kentucky Derby is actually just one of the major races a horse owner aspires to acclaim. The Preakness and Travers have seem to elevated above the Kentucky Derby winners each year.

From a handicapper corner, if the horse gets the necessary cash by finishing 1st or 2nd, no one here will really play the colt anyway as a true handicapper. Don't just start writing your thoughts without using your mind. At least consider the serious point of view in thoroughbred racing.

Which one of you handicappers would bet Tomcito head to head with;

Big Brown
War Pass
Colonel John
Pyro
Gayego

Going 6 furlong, okay 1 mile, now 1 1/16, going forward 1 1/8. No one yet! I thought as much! Now 1 1/4, still not budging? exactly, me either!

no one here would place him on top. The only way you place this colt on top is to cover your backside wager.

In fact, no one has said the colt will win the Kentucky Derby here or anywhere. I have read, maybe thats because no one is INSANE, or will admit it?

Tomcito who! is not the top selection for anyone in the U.S. So lets call it what it is, In Hollywood we have stand-in actors, and props.

I hear the director saying, as the real actor are reading their scripes! (nice touch working Scripe name in, don't you think) Cut! and the stand-in come running and gets knock around alot, well the director say's Tomcito who! get in there and earn your pay!. Scripe acting as his agent is demanding more money, sound like it when I read his comments. These type of agents always get fired. Who's listening to the agent for a stand-in anyway?

This is why I am not listening to Mr Sripe, he's a stand-in agent, demanding more money, looking for the big paycheck thinking it going to lead to the big break in Hollywood. Sound a little on the greedy side of business. Start thinking what's best for the horse?

Well let me stop beating around the bush, the answer to Tomcito Who? is the "Gate Filler". Sound like a low budget film, released above budget though. Did anyone hear make any money on Tomcito who yet?

So don't write me concerning how good the colt is, if Tomcito Who! hasn't put a single penny in your pocket.

By the way, Tomcito who sounds like and races like a turf horse to me anyway. Bring him west to Hollywood for the Swaps stakes, so I can heckler scripe out of business!

Barry...

You really have puss for brains, an truly show a sense of classlessness that would not surprise me if you actually lived in a trailer park somewhere.

First you critizise a seasoned trainer's decision on how to bring a horse to a race, tehn you call Prado stupid for choosing Adriano over Monba when he is the one on their back not you...

I could go on and on, but simply put, the closest to having nay interest in a horse in a grade I race is the 42 dollar ticket in your hand...

Sit on your couch, sip your beer and keep the flies away from your hot dog....

I know envy must be something you cant deal with, was it a childhood experience? or what?

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha (ha)

There is a little riddle in the -ha- line string Mr Scripe.

Can you guest the meaning?

Here your tip, Guest what -ha- is your horses finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Knowing you, you will probably say, the ha on the right is first place, in like crossing the finish line down the stretch run.

Don't distort the truth, your horse finishes last as noted by the Big Ha on the left and (ha) on the right position.

I am with you CP, AWFUL training job with the colt if they choose to run back in two weeks.

I would consider the colt more if they would have just waited and see if they made enough earnings and train up to the Derby.

Yea I live in a trailer park, and what about it! Don't act like your above anyone here? Your NOT!

At least, I don't sleep in the stables with my horse and say pucker up Tomcito who!

No cross breeding here. Mr. Scripe! I keep the light on and go where I please!

I am free to speak and say whatever come to mind.

Like, are you pissed-off, because I will not be swed to Tomcito Who!

Go take a shower! and wash the stable smell off yourself. The smell is not allowed in Kentucky.

Seriously, lay off the Tomcito connections. The guy has a horse and a dream. The internet is a haven for cowards, because you know full well you'd never berate a man with a horse and dream in person. Y'all gotta have some decency.

and by the end of Saturday, I will hope to have heard the last of Tomcito and Scripe who!,

I hope I am the last thought on your mind as you leave town for good.

But if you want my trailer park address, just let me know! we can do this?

Stable boy!

What I don't have in Brains, I make it up in MUSCLES.

Hey it doesn't matter its all just Derby hype nothing anyone says here will change what happens May 3, except maybe the odds will go down on Colonel John!!!

Tomcito is not my pick for the Derby but running 3rd to the derby favorite in your first start off the long layoff is not bad, and if the fast pace everyone is calling for zaps the front of the field, one of the closers might win it, and Tomcito could be one of them. So what wrong with taking a shot, they are only 3 years old once and you might regret it if some other longshot won the race and you didn't even run your horse in the race.

Okay Mr. McMitch, I will layoff the guy, because a bloggers ask me to do so!

but you don't know the history with Mr. Scripe, and what this guy has said personally?

So why don't you try being fair and don't exalt the dream thing above the personal character attacks. Try telling him not to write nasty when it comes to individuals who really don't believe his dream. That's my right.

I don't like him personally, He berates the bloggers with personal remarks and distorts their comments, when no one agrees with his point of view. Whether he has a dream or not, that crosses the line for me.

Therefore, his character is at question with me. I can get as low as anyone here when you personally attack someone or myself. Let him fill what it is like to be talk down too!

I don't care for him or his horse or connections, It's PERSONAL.

He cross the line with me long ago. I simply am not letting him jump back and forth a cross the line he should not have never crossed in the beginning.

I said my peace, now if he write back to me again, I not hearing you or anyone else!

He is meat for the table.

I'll tell you what's wrong with taking a shot on Tomcito...

It is a waste of money.

You want to take a shot, take it with Smooth Air who beat him by 7 1/2 lengths and drawing.

Lexington Stakes selections:
1. Salute the Sarge
2. Samba Rooster
3. Racecar Rhapsody
4. Big Glen

Do you see Tomcito anywhere?

Barry, Cd,

You seem to be fine handicappers, but I expect better than you as sportsmen. I've heard Potato make comments about us all being here to make money. The industry is full of people just in it for a buck. Being a handicapper might mean crossing out a horse you don't think belongs. Being a sportsman means being respectful of others win or lose. If you enjoy the game just for the money, then you shouldn't be on this blog. Somewhere, I think everyone knows this game, as much as any, is really about history and emotion. There's something exciting about the Super Bowl or the Final Four or the World Series, but those events don't have the same emotional quallity, the same ability to bring men to tears while hearing and singing a song no one even knows the words to. If you can't watch Ghostzapper and get chills unless you're holding a winning ticket, then you might need to reevaluate why you love this game.

This is the very reason people get in this game. Here, some partners put down a few thousand dollars, bought a horse no one wanted, and now they have a shot at the derby. That's what is great about the game, and that is why people cheer for this horse despite the fact that he is less proven than some of the other runners. This is truly what racing's all about, and to bash someone who's living the dream is a like booing someone's kid at a little league game. Tomcito is good for the game, and if you love the game, you should not bash any horse, let alone a good horse with a good story. People who forget that lead to situations like this.
http://thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2008/April/15/Little-Cliff-re...

barry,

I believe Charismatic won the Derby off a Lexington win, Showing Up actually ran well. You wouldn't call Lukas or Tagg awful horsemen. Tomcito's trainer is not the first to try to get more early interest out of a deep closer. Don't make it out to be more than it is. If Tomcito wins the Lexington, a lot of people will be picking him, and he'll move way up on my list. I bet he runs better than Pyro. BTW, you spend so much time tearing down other people's horses, I've forgotten who you like? Top 5? Here's mine for the moment, the only easy one is the top one:

1. Big Brown
2. Pyro
3. Bob Black Jack
4. Court Vision
5. War Pass

sripa,

First and foremost good luck. 2nd, saw your crew at FL Derby, and the woman in your group was the prettiest of all the women in the paddock. Finally, don't listen to the hateful handicappers. Barry picked against Curlin, picked against Zenyatta, he hates Big Brown, so take it with a grain of salt. If you owned Curlin they'd be telling you to retire him before he's exposed as a fraud. Good Luck! For racing's sake, I hope he makes it!

For the record:

1.Big Brown
2.Z Fortune
3.Pyro
4.Colonel John
5.Gayego

Scripe, congrats on your horse. No one on this site will have a horse in the derby. Most havent made 151k this year on a $7.5k investment. You made a smooth 100k in the last month off of Who? Tomcito! So dont worry about the jealous ones on this site. You will be drinking mint julips on May 3rd while others are in their trailors trying to pick up the race by moving their bunny ears on the tv ;)

Oh, and one more thing, thanks for Tomcito who? because he paid me off well for showing in the florida derby! guess barrymitchell didnt cash that ticket! and even if he had big brown to win, Tomcito paid better to show ;) they can suck on that one all the way to the bank $$$$$$$$$$ cha ching

Wow a whole $6.20

Don't bet him to show on Saturday because he won't be close.

How many horses in that race have more graded earnings?

Mac, so who is going to ride Tale of Ekati? Cornelio? Adriano is the total wildcard in the Derby, its impossible to know what to do with him. That horrible post he had in Florida is something only a really special horse can overcome and win, so you can't hold that dirt form against him entirely. Prado knows what he's doing and he had good options and to choose Adriano makes me take another look at the horse. Rags to Riches liked the dirt just fine last year...

And im not betting him to show....ill make a WPS on him. He'll be there at the end with plenty left in the tank to be 100% for the derby!

corneilio has the mount on war pass if you asked. tomcito like every one said worked in 34 and galloped out in 46 and came back fine. the only thing i dont like is the graded earnings quilfication to the derby because lets say salute the sarge eight belles and tomcito get in the kicks bob black jack big truck and possibly visionaire and they have banked 180k. they shouldnt run eight belles in the derby because she is going to be like rags were she isnt going to be the same after the race and then shes retired after making 0-2 starts after the race and if they do head to the triple crown with her then aim for the preakness because it will take less out of her.

Yeah Thomas M, I think I'm like one of those German Shepherds who can only remember 126 commands and then for everything new I learn after that I have to forget something I had known before, so the more I learn the less I know.

Barry,

Didn't Charismatic win the Lexington and come back in 2 weeks to win the Derby? Didn't Proud Citizen win it too and then come second? And what about Risen Star who who would have won the Derby and the Triple had he not raced so wide the whole way around. I believe he ran in the Lexington and won 2 weeks before the Derby too. Whether he has crossed the line before or not I don't think it would be AWFUL for the trainer to bring him back in 2 weeks. If everyone were to take your article into account only the favourties would run for the roses. I've seen way better stuff from you when you're not so emotional. I hope to see a return to unbiased, focused and enlightened comentary on this site. Same as Mac.

Don't worry. I'm wrong. Back then the Lexington was 3 weeks before the Derby. Either way, I don't think it killed Showing Up's chances. He went on to be good after that too so I don't think it will damage the horse. Just my view.

That was all I was saying...it's all good, like Mac said we'd all be having beers laughing at each other probably. I'm starting to hone in on Recapturetheglory. That horse will have as good a form as any going. It'll be his 3rd off a layoff, a nice high Beyer in a two turn dirt GII (and he used some good horses--Atoned will hammer the Lexington this weekend) and it's done nothing but impress EVERY TIME he's set foot on the track, win or lose in good fashion, which you can ONLY say about Colonel John and Big Brown at this point. All 25 gotta be forgiven for and I don't want to have to think hypothetically about why they all clunked, like Adriano on dirt, War Pass with pressure, etc. Watch all his races and you see the heart of an emerging champion. I think. But I ask folks seriously...can a front running horse like that win at 10f with other speed? If not, can a front runner suddenly learn to chill out and rate in a race this? If so, I got me a longshot special!

And Recapture may only have the one GII win, but his 1st allowance was against Cool Coal Man and some other stakes caliber, and he nearly wired him off a three month rest.

I wouldnt bet your $$$ on any horses near the lead this year, thats how confident i am and the downey profile cant handicap me :)

Okay Mac, your my man, and you know that. I will keep it clean.

Mr. Longshot, don't parlay your longshot winnings, take the money and run. The Lex will not be a winning race for Tomcito who?

Ryan I am focus, an emotional, IT's DERBY TIME. I HAVE MY MINT JULIPS.
What I am trying to say, it take a special horse to run two week prior and pull off the victory, I do not see anyone in the line up which has that kind of talent. Plus hasn't the track surface change concerning your list? What are the stats since the weather track has been installed? That other factors leading up to the Derby for Tomcito which he has to overcome.

(1)Conditioning last reported by Mr Sripa was 80%, what is Tomcito condition now 90%,100% or maybe 80%. Will he advise us what the horses status is? will the same excuse be made the last race. will he comment on his horses condition, like he stated about PYRO using the Bluegrass as a prep race and was not gear up to win, That comment borderline horse fixing to the general public and a disrespect to the S.A. camp!
Funny how he commented negatively about another trainers horse, but can't take the same type of comment concerning Tomcito who!
(2) Distance, 1 1/16 is simply to short with tight turns for a closer
(3) Training changes if the horse was condition for a 1 1/8 at 80%, he was condition for 1 1/16. I am not impressed with the work. Its average for the Keeneland Race Course.
(4) Track surfaces no comment, it not dirt for sure
(5) graded earnings, Tomcito camp was arguing about Tomcito who! earning in Peru earlier. Something along the line of 30k versus 50k. Nevertheless, Tomcito is a multiple Group 1 winner in Peru (50K), Tomcito has compiled a total of $151,292 in graded and group stakes earnings, which ranks 29th among Kentucky Derby hopefuls.

No my friend, I am fully sound in my view point. I am not jealous what-so-ever. I worth more than the animal and my trailer without wheels is more expensive and will last alot longer, and by the way, runs alot faster as well.

The only horse to pull off wins in both the Lexington Stakes and the Derby was Charismatic in 1999. I don't ,do if maybe so scenarios, please do not compare Tomcito who? to the list of three year old champions who used the Lexington as a prep.

That would be truly unfair to history an American racing.

Mr. Derby, actually last year, I was the main Curlin driver on this blog. I stayed with CURLIN since departing Florida.

My pick against Curlin in Dubai was to add excitement to the game. Actually, my choice for A-Boy over Curlin was to root for the underdog. So don't get the pick wrong, I am a CURLIN groupie from the beginning, no one here can say that and keep a straight face.

Now to are little wager, yea you won the bet with Zenyatta, but don't press your luck. I have a high percentage of turning the tables.

My pick this weekend in the Lex, is Atoned. For one week of silence on Mac's blog and no more Tomcito discussion.

name yours?

barry,

Don't know what you're so mad about. Second, an off the board in the Lexington proves nothing. Hitting the board doesn't prove that much either, but it would get him in, and I'd rather have him in the race than Salute the Sarge who's trainer compared his sending his horse to the Derby as him playing a Jester for Queen, he's that sure his horse won't go 10f. I'd rather he go than have Zayat send Massive Drama and scratch him to face 1 fewer runner with the other 2. If he hits the board in the Lexington, he deserves to be there as much as Giacomo and Closing Argument, and more than Lone Star Sky, Itsallinthechase, Tens Cents a Shine, etc. Spring of the 3 year old season is when most horses define what type of horse they will be, and some blossom into stars. Dismissing growing horses at this time of year is almost impossible, and dismissing a closing 3rd in the Fl Derby off NO preps seems pretty silly. Why don't you just wait and see how he runs before bashing him. I mean, he's only ran once, and whether Sripa said 80% or not, everyone who has ever bet a horse off a layoff knows that he wasn't fully cranked. So I guess I don't get what you guys are arguing about, especially since the horse he was "bashing" was the same horse you were bashing, Big Brown. And I think all he said was that he wasn't proven, same as his horse. Why cheer for a horse not to be good? You don't like good horses? No matter how good of a handicapper you are, you have no idea how good Tomcito does. He's ran one race in the US at top level over a speed favoring course and ran a decent but distant 3rd. He's been a mystery. He's still a mystery.

Anyone else find the NY bred Z Fortune extremely similar to NY bred Funny cide? Undefeated 2 year olds, big 2nds in their final preps where it didn't look like they were gaining, suspect 10f pedigrees...

Mac,
Headly's Street Boss looks pretty legit. How 'bout his filly Magnificence? She's gotta be getting close, no?

I promise to not write another negative word concerning Tomcito,(see I left the who off) your write Mr. Derby, don't blame the horse for the companionship he keeps.

Tell you the truth, I actually like the horse, horses are really nice animals till they bite you.

Tomcito looks beautiful in the pictured published on this site. Probably has a very good personality. I wonder if Tomcito like apples?

So I wish the horse luck for now. I am still heavily leaning for Atoned. The horse deserves to make the Kentucky Derby, two hard luck loses, once this year and last year.

I sure the owners are frustrated but the colt runs good races.

Draws the rail and the short path around the oval.

Salute will run a good race, he always does. Out west he was the best two year old at Hollywood Park and Del Mar. Georgie Boy ran the best in the Del Mar Derby, but Salute had much trouble. His comeback race was a excellent return. 1 1/16 is a good distance for him.

I registered just so I could respond to the unbelievably rude and classless comments of barryrmitchell. My dog has better manners than you. My hope for you is that you find out firsthand that karma is a real phenomenon.

I send my best wishes to Tomcito and his connections. I've followed him since his days in Peru and hope he provides a wonderful ride and much enjoyment for his humans. Good luck in the Lexington and hopefully in Louisville.

mac ... i think those numbers could be close to the MORNING LINE on wednesday ... but i was looking for POST TIME ... my guesses would have them more spread out ... big brown 2-1 colonel john 6-1 pyro 9-1 war pass 12-1 ... in fact i dont think its EVEN POSSIBLE for the four of them to be so low ... unless the others were at SIMPLY ASTRONOMICAL odds ... for example last year ... street sense and curlin were SOFT FAVES at 4.90 and 5.00 ... and the next two were scat daddy at 7.20 and hard spun at 10.00 ... mac i think big brown is going to take A LOT of money ... and deservedly so ... the public GOES CRAZY for undefeated horses ... i can see RICH WOMEN in hats and HIGH ROLLERS beside them looking at the form for the FIRST TIME on saturday and UNLOADING on this horse ... which should give the rest of us who arent going to play the horse on sheer principle VISIONS OF SUGARPLUMS ... thanks for the dialogue mac

mac ... i think those numbers could be close to the MORNING LINE on wednesday ... but i was looking for POST TIME ... my guesses would have them more spread out ... big brown 2-1 colonel john 6-1 pyro 9-1 war pass 12-1 ... in fact i dont think its EVEN POSSIBLE for the four of them to be so low ... unless the others were at SIMPLY ASTRONOMICAL odds ... for example last year ... street sense and curlin were SOFT FAVES at 4.90 and 5.00 ... and the next two were scat daddy at 7.20 and hard spun at 10.00 ... mac i think big brown is going to take A LOT of money ... and deservedly so ... the public GOES CRAZY for undefeated horses ... i can see RICH WOMEN in hats and HIGH ROLLERS beside them looking at the form for the FIRST TIME on saturday and UNLOADING on this horse ... which should give the rest of us who arent going to play the horse on sheer principle VISIONS OF SUGARPLUMS ... thanks for the dialogue mac

barry,

Terms of wager accepted. I's a shame this race wasn't on dirt, cuz I think Tomcito would demolish these. However, the quick polytrack of Keeneland has mystified to no small degree. Keeneland definitely moves certain horses up big time. It's just sort of a huge guess as to who. If it weren't hard enough to handicap, the track favors speed some days, and closers others. And we have the short stretch run to consider. St. Joe has a chance to steal as he can set quick fractions and keep right on going. Riley Tucker's last was quite nice and he would have won if he hadn't run out of room in the shortened stretch. That said, I think the horse that moves forward most at Keeneland is Racecar Rhapsody. He'll get an honest pace, but Albarrado better move him early. The Tale of the Cat in him will love the cutback, if he doesn't move late, he should get there. Good luck to Tomcito and everyone else!

Barry,

You're my old blogging buddy from last year's Kentucky Derby blogs. I value your friendship and that will never change. You know that I would not make a statement unless I believed that there was a possiblity of it becoming reality.

Any horse that is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector bloodline has to be given a good look on Derby day because that line has produced 8 of the past 13 (62%) Kentucky Derby winners.

If Tomcito wins the Lexington Coolmore, be sure to give him a good look on Derby day - he's descended from Mr. Prospector. Also, I just found out that Court Vision and Z Humor (both descendants of Mr. Prospector) suddenly seem to have come to life in their workouts today at Churchill Downs after posting a very unimpressive prep season.

Court Vision worked a bullet 4 furlongs in :46.20 (first time blinkers) and Z Humor was 3 of 25 at the same distance with a time of :47.60.

Court Vision’s Gulch/Storm Bird nick is the same nick that produced the 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch and I won big on him that day. So, you can bet that I’ll use Court Vision on May 3rd.

Z Humor's sire Distorted Humor is the same sire as Funny Cide and I won a lot of money on Funny Cide in 2003. On the bottom, Z Humor and Funny Cide's damsires are both out of the Bold Ruler line. However, Z Humor's damsire, A.P. Indy, is much better that Funny Cide's damsire, Slewacide.

So the plot thickens and it looks like the Mr. Prospector line thoroughbreds may finally be living up to their breeding.

Only time will tell.

I agree with the dare to dream philosophy. If I owned a quarter horse who somehow had enough earnings to get into the derby I'd take a shot with him. Who knows, he may run the race of his life. I plunked down $50 to win on Lusty Latin, just because his owners were from the same neck of the woods as I was. Did I expect to win? No. He came in 15th. Honestly, how many people on here have actually won money over the years in the Derby? Overall, I'm down slightly since 2000 primarily because of exotic wagers. I picked Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Fusiachi Pegasus and won a bit those years. Lost big on Point Given, some on Perfect Drift, Empire Maker and Curlin.

I have a $200 future wager on Court Vision which looks to be a long shot at best, but if he improves, gets the killer early pace this derby looks to be setting up for I still think he has a shot. If Tomcito gets in, he could benefit from that pace as well. Talk about a wide open field. Every single horse has a serious problem. None of them fit into traditional kentucky derby handicapping techniques. Here's a list of contenders and their knocks.

Big Brown - Three races, bad feet and his supposedly astounding 106 beyer(which is average compared to years past) was on a speed favoring track where later in the day a new track record was recorded.

Colonel John - Never raced on dirt. Low Beyers

Pyro - Distance questions, not to mention his last race

War Pass - Clunker of a race and no way he gets a mile and a quarter.

Tale of Ekati - Low Beyers, also had a clunker

Gayego - Distance Questions

Monba - Low Beyers

Z Fortune - Watch the Risen Star stakes, he was fading at a mile and 1/16th, doubt he can get a mile and a quarter.

Court Vision - Highest Beyer, a whopping 90

The list goes on and on. Scrap your handicapping techniques and bet on a story you like, good a chance as any.