Longshot, the Sequel

The more races they run the worse it gets, If Tomcito keeps running he might win tomorrows first race...If you want a slam dunk Daily Double play Country Star, Eight Belles with Pyro Visionaire and Court Vision ......go to the window and just keep punching it...

mike, you beat me to the punch, had to check tee times for tomorrow, i see 2 visions coming into focus. book that.

Mac, I like your picks. I'm stilling thinking it over but I still like Cool Coal Man and Big Truck, since we're going to forgive Pyro anyway...I don't know about them for the win but maybe to get into the mix. I also like the Z Fortune Z Humor exacta, as well as the Big Brown Big Truck exacta, just because you'd hate to miss one like that. Or the exacta with both horses that beat War Pass, both trained by Barclay Tagg, Tale of Ekati and Big Truck...That one would pay well for sure. If you like Adriano's breeding then you might like Cool Coal Man's as well, and at least he did some running early in the Blue Grass and hopefully got something out of it. Big Truck has been lighting it up on the training track so maybe a dull race won't be too costly. Really, of the three I have the most doubt about Tale of Ekati, but somehow I keep returning to that one for another look. I like Eight Belles singled out on the front end of the Oaks Derby Double with whoever you like on the Derby end.

Monba gets to the top of the list, the horse continues to be viewed as sleeper.
Monba will not receive any wagering on Derby day, 20-1 and above despite his recent Bluegrass victory.
We all know distance will not be an issue, class is eliminated as well. Surface is the only question mark.

Second, Tale of Ekati, this horse was on everyones radar last year with his powerful victory, which in my book was the best two year old race ran.
Count his Wood victory as his first un bias two turn race in his life (breeders cup in the mud, and the L-Derby was his comeback race). All the colt did was natch victory from the two year old champ. He is still learning how to run two turns and should improve greatly from the training and toughness of the Wood. Just read Nick comments on War Pass condition after the wood. It was a hard race on War Pass.

Third, Mac, I going to invoke the writers deadliest sin.
Stealing your comments, only because I so impressed with your analysis, forgive me!

Adriano – Love the breeding (daddy is A.P. Indy; say no more), like the trainer, like the fact that his world-class jock chose him over two other “live” Derby horses. Looks like a horse on the rise; his last race was an impressive graded stakes win; he’s built like a throw-back fullback. Finally, appears he’s got enough “lick” to get a decent stalking position and avoid the worst of the Derby traffic.

I like a Z Fortune, Cowboy Cal, and Smooth Air exacta box.

OK. Have to admit that I'll be adding Colonel John and Pyro to the above and doing a $5 box. But hey, it could still come in some manner with the 3 first mentioned having the top 2.

Pyro ... $1,020,000
Proud Spell (filly) ... $880,000
Tale of Ekati ... $738,000
Colonel John ... $720,000
Gayego ... $640,000
Big Brown ... $600,000
Z Humor ... $579,000
Monba ... $515,000
Court Vision ... $331,872
Z Fortune ... $329,000
Adriano ... $310,000
Recapturetheglory ... $300,000
Smooth Air ... $290,000
Salute the Sarge ... $258,940
Cool Coal Man ... $212,767
Anak Nakal ... $212,216
Eight Belles (filly) ... $210,000
Cowboy Cal ... $207,660
Massive Drama ... $205,200
Behindatthebar ... $204,500
Visionaire ... $202,500
Big Truck ... $194,500
Bob Black Jack ... $180,000

Mac,

Great job. Here are mine.

1. MONBA

I agree with Barry here, Monba is at the top of that list. But what surface question are you talking about? He has a win at Churchill already!! Do you mean he is possibly not as good at Churchill as he is on Polytrack?

2. COURT VISION

I agree with Mike. Court Vision should be on that list after that 4 in 46 at CD. This is one I loved, then hated, and now love once again. Horses for courses. He's won here before and he's working lights out at CD at the right time. He always gives an effort. I never have a problem spending $ on a horse who I know will try his hardest. Great pedigree too. Those Mr. Prospector lines are always around.

3. Z FORTUNE

I loved his race in the Arkansas. I love that horses have run just like that in their final preps and gone on to win the big dance a la Silver Charm, Grindstone, etc. He has good connections who always regarded this one highly. He will work at CD and I also love the 4 preps.

Sorry Mac and Barry but no Adriano for me. The horses coming out of the Lane's End have showed nothing. The LE also was not run in a particularly fast time. He hasn't done well on dirt though he's bred for it. His work this morning was only 18th best. His other work with Prado was also quite slow. He could jump onto my list with a bulltet work but until then I'll leave this Poly/turf monster out.

Court Vision is my longshot for all the reasons Ryan said. If you're looking for good pedigree, this horse has it - on both sides. I too have had polarizing feelings concerning this colt though. He's tested my wits all year. But everytime I want to dismiss this horse, he does something to make me reconsider (the workout earlier last week). He's like a crazy girlfriend that you really should leave alone, but the "benefits" are too appealing.

Mac-

I'm guessing that everyone except for Big Brown, Pyro, Col. John, and possibly Tale of Ekati will pay $20 or more, so this is a race where those who can solve the puzzle will get paid.

Right now my top 2 are Monba and Bob's Blackjack, with Z Humour my "hunch play". Having said that if Big Brown gets a clear lead and no one goes with him, it's "chalk city" But IF is the biggest word in the dictionary!

Cowboy Cal = Bluegrass Cat. Any Takers????? Horse has done nothing wrong. Also, Give me Court's Vision to finish third.

Sorry in advance,

I need to vent some more on Adriano. His trainer, a man who I respect a lot, said, “He’s just not been a flashy work horse. It’s never been his nature, really." I don't want to acuse Mr. Motion of lying but what was the 4 in 45.60 at Keenland on 4/08 which was the fastest of 56 works that day?!?! Now he's worked 4 in 50 and 5 in 1:01.80. The former being 29th best of 42 and the former being 18th of 39. Just look at the pic of him on the home page. He runs like a turf horse. I don't trust this horse as gorgeous as he and his pedigree are. His workmate had one of the worst workouts of the dcay and I'm glad to hear Motion say he'll change the workmate for the next breeze. As of now Adriano isn't cutting it for me one bit.

ryanmosley,

I like your list. All three of those thoroughbreds have excellent pedigrees for the Kentucky Derby. In addition, I would add Z Humor and Gayego to your list.

If I had my choice on who would win the Derby, I’d like to see Z Fortune or Gayego win. Both of those thoroughbreds have classic pedigrees that produced Champions long before the days of Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector. A win by either of those two would be a refreshing return to the era of the classic stamina pedigree influence.

Z Fortune’s sire line is loaded with Brazilian and European champions that trace back to St. Simon who was the most dominant sire of classic stamina at the turn of the 20th Century – his progeny dominated global racing for decades thereafter.

Z Fortune’s 5th great-grandsire Prince Rose was the 1931 Belgium Triple Crown winner and according to pedigreequery.com he “was probably the best colt of his generation in Europe.” In addition, Prince Rose was also the sire of Princequillo who was another important source of stamina in the thoroughbred.

Z Fortune’s grandsire Itajara was the Brazilian Triple Crown winner and was undefeated in 7 starts. Z Fortune’s sire, Siphon, 12-6-2 in 25 starts with $3,155,919 in career earnings was a champion in Brazil and America and won races from 6 furlongs to 1 ¼ miles.

Gayego’s sire line of Damascus also is an influential stamina line. Damascus is descended from the great Stockwell who was known as the “Emperor of Stallions” in his day.

The Phalaris branch of the Stockwell line gave us Native Dancer which eventually gave us Mr. Prospector. The Phalaris branch also gave us Nearco which gave us Northern Dancer, Nasrullah and Bold Ruler. The Bold Ruler line dominated the Triple Crown Trail during the decade of the 1970’s producing 7 Kentucky Derby winners including the Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew.

The bottom of Gayego’s pedigree traces back to Ribot which is one of my favorite bloodlines and another important source of stamina. A Champion of Champions; undefeated in 16 starts; two-time winner of the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe; 1954 Italian Champion 2-year-old colt; 1955 Italian Champion 3-year-old colt; 1956 Champion Older Horse in the United Kingdom, France and Italy; rated by Timeform as the 3rd best runner of the 20th Century - Ribot also traces back to St. Simon.

It's difficult to toss anyone this year. I'll toss Cowboy Cal, Z Humor, and Big Truck, and Anak Nakal for the win.

If Proud Spell goes, I think she stands a great chance of hitting the board. The further the better, loves dirt, keeps on coming.

Court Vision is an obvious one, so obvious that he might not pay $20. I backed Adriano in the FOY and the Lanes End based on how much the horse looks and strides like a young Curlin, at least on grass. Not sure I love him on dirt, perhaps a Preakness horse. I've never been that big of a fan of Cool Coal Man, but the horse has grown into one incredible looking animal. Of course, I'll be cheering for Visionaire since I've got him at 80-1.

Deep field, or uniformally shallow, not sure which.

ADRIANO - 1. Last year Graham Motion (Trainer) was telling anyone who would listen that ADRIANO was the best horse in his stable; 2. Graham Motion is a really hot trainer right now. He's in the zone! He's on fire!: He just won a couple of stake races at Keeneland and one at Pimlico (And, remember, he said ADRIANO is the best horse in his stable!); 3. Edgar Prado picked ADRIANO over Monba & Tale of Ekati - the EDGAR PRADO - Hello, Hello! Edgar Prado knows something about winning Triple Crown races (Barbaro; Birdstone), he also won 3 KDerby Preps, and he picks ADRIANO over Monba & Tale of Ekati! Oh, and one more thing, Edgar is quoted as saying, \"ADRIANO reminds me of BARBARO." Conclusion: Put ADRIANO in the win positions of your exotics (along with Pyro & Colonel John) and you can put Monba, Tale of Ekati, and Big Brown in the lower rungs - Place, Show, & 4th - positions of your exotics. See you at the winner's window - and you will thank me later! Any questions?

Adriano, Recapturetheglory, and Gayego (thanks for the stamina tip calvin carter). Losing War Pass means a little less insanity up front. Arguably the best two last outs are Big Brown and Recapture. This thing isn't coming from way back. Aside from Colonel John, there ain't a horse with a ferocious late kick in this crop. The closers Tale of Ekati, Monba, and Court Vision, they just aren't good enough. Adriano won't be too long of odds, will he?

Calvin,

Thanks for the pedigree tips. I'm only 24 but I've been a pedigree student since I was 7. I was always more interested in books on pedigree and magazines like The Bloodhorse and Pacemaker than children's novels and school books! My favourite book every year is The Stallion Register. I go to sleep with it almost every night! I've tried to argue that Gayego has lots of stamina influences in his pedigree as well. I agree that Ribot is one of the most important stamina influences. As a pedigree student I am quite familiar with "The Emporer". It's nice to see others here with the same passion.

Thanks for the info on Siphon's pedigree. Some I knew already and some I didn't. I hadn't looked as far back as Prince Rose but I knew about Itajara. A great stamina influencing pedigree, no doubt.

I'll tell you that I do like Gayego, he's on my short list. You can keep Z Humor though. I'm not his biggest fan. Nothing to do with pedigree. I just don't think he's good enough. In this field where it's hard to toss horses I have to toss him. For me there are too many others with better credentials.

Calvin,

Thanks for the pedigree tips. I'm only 24 but I've been a pedigree student since I was 7. I was always more interested in books on pedigree and magazines like The Bloodhorse and Pacemaker than children's novels and school books! My favourite book every year is The Stallion Register. I go to sleep with it almost every night! I've tried to argue that Gayego has lots of stamina influences in his pedigree as well. I agree that Ribot is one of the most important stamina influences. As a pedigree student I am quite familiar with "The Emporer". It's nice to see others here with the same passion.

Thanks for the info on Siphon's pedigree. Some I knew already and some I didn't. I hadn't looked as far back as Prince Rose but I knew about Itajara. A great stamina influencing pedigree, no doubt.

I'll tell you that I do like Gayego, he's on my short list. You can keep Z Humor though. I'm not his biggest fan. Nothing to do with pedigree. I just don't think he's good enough. In this field where it's hard to toss horses I have to toss him. For me there are too many others with better credentials.

Mac

It's there on the workboard on this website. Just go to Adriano's page, under the heading "daily workbook" go to April 8th ( 4.08) and you'll see it 4 in 45.60 at Keenland. The 4 in 50 on April 13th is listed as at Churchill both on this site and at Daily Racing Form's site. Unfortunately the Daily Racing Form's website won't let me go back past April 10th at Keeneland to confirm that work but I did a google search and found an article that mentioned the work.

www.thoroughbredtimes.com/triple-crown/contender-detail.aspx?contenderno... - 17k -

It was also on Keeneland's website.

Gayego and Smooth Air

Pyro
Gayego
Recapturetheglory

There is your straight TRI

TAKE IT TO THE BANK!!!

TOMCITO WHO!!!!!! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!

I think everyone is dismissing all of the horses from the Wood due to slow time. What everyone is forgetting is the amount of rain the days leading to the race. Did this cause a reflection on the slow going? I think it might. Having said that I believe Tale of Ekati and Court Vision will both being running with Pyro and Colonel John turning for home. A good vetern horseplayer once told me that times are for convicts. Different tracks surfaces and race styles can change any race. All my friends are telling me that Big Brown is a lock. What if the track comes up muddy? I've attend races at Churchill since I was a kid and on muddy days I've rarely watched horse go wire to wire at 6 furlongs. I've never watched one wire the field at 1 1/4. Also post postitions have to come into play. Favorites may draw unfavorable post causing a longshot to emerge. Just keep an open mind when the handicapping starts.

Regarding Adriano's 45 and change work. I could have sworn that I saw it was a mistake... reported on Downey Profile or DRF about a week ago? I'm pretty sure that 45 work did not happen.

Mac,

As usual, interesting topic. I was always under the impression that 10-1 or greater is a "value horse" in the Derby. 15-1 or better is deep value and 20-1 or better is a long shot. Last year, Curlin was the morning line favorite, Street Sense was second favorite at 5-1 and Hard Spun was morning line odds at 15-1. When they went to post, SS was the mild favorite, Curlin was second, and HS was tied for 4th favorite with Slowbiz at 10-1.

Now, you could argue HS was a great value horse at both 15-1 and 10-1. The public knew more than Battaglia and bet HS down to 10-1, which would have paid over $20 on a $2 bet had he won. As it was, the exactas and trifecas were very nice thanks to HS, despite the chalk in 1st and 3rd. But you cannot argue that Hard Spun was a "long-shot". He just was not. And neither are many of the horses being discussed here.

Some will be value (Adriano-if you think he gets dirt), Z Fortune (I predict M/L odds of 12-1 on Z Fortune). Monba (will go off at 15-1. Period.). Wake up Barry, Monba is already at the top of Haskin's Derby Twelve. Long shot, NOT! Pletcher has no long shots, his name precedes his horses. Don't believe me? Big Brown won the Florida Derby. Colonel John won the SA Derby. But Pletcher won the Blue Grass Stakes, actually Pletcher came in 1-2. Pletcher won the Lexington. You have to actually read further into the headline or in the articles themselves to see the name of the horse that "won" it for Pletcher. So Pletcher, err I mean Monba, will not be a long shot and may even be an underlay.

Gayego will be morning line of 10-1. He will probably go off at 9/2. Borderline value, no long shot. Thanks for the stamina line update, Calvin, Gayego gets stamina from somewhere, as he runs more and further than most other horses that have a 1 shot 2 furlong stretch run. Damascus is also found at the top and bottom of Big Brown's pedigree. But BB is neither "value" or a longshot. However, if BB is 5-1 or better at post, that is value, value, value. Lack of experience only counts if you run off the pace, if you have tactical speed and a high cruising limit on the pace, once you clear the 1st turn, the Derby is like any other race-EXCEPT 1 more furlong added on! Curlin shuffled back after the break because he did not have the gate speed of a horse like Big Brown. If BB breaks ok, he WILL be with the leaders at the 1st turn, provided he is healthy. Curlin's inside post helped complicate things, too.

But stop comparing Curlin's Derby expectations with Big Brown. Look around- where is Street Sense or Hard Spun- or even Any Given Saturday or Tiago? Answer- Not here.
There is Col John and the pre poly Pyro (PPP), then everyone else.

That, and not "experience", is the concern for tactical speed horses.

Recapturetheglory will certainly be a longshot. Considering his tactical speed, he may be a longshot that you may want to pound like a value bet. If you believe he gets 10 panels or gets into the money. Bob Black Jack is another, should he get in. BBJ will have a say in the pace. One negative on that one: ultra conservative David Flores, who never has seen a quick pace that he likes, will no doubt try and keep BBJ off of the lead and will wrestle with the horse down the entire backstretch. This is the same jock who thought it was a good idea to take El Gato Malo way back to 12th place after he broke poorly, then move EGM about 6 wide around the far turn and then express amazement after 2 furlongs that the horse flattened out and finished 5th! Flores rides the same ultra conservative race every time, regardless or horse. Take back, get jammed in somewhere or if lucky find a hole, and make a run late! Every single race!
Terrible jock for a speed horse, would NEVER split horses or try and wire the field.
That is why he indicated he would rather ride Behindatthebar in the Derby when asked, a horse he, once again, took way back and came running late. David "Take Back" Flores.

Court Vision will probably be 10-1 or under at post. That may be a value, especially after his last work and blinkers. Z Humor a certain longshot, a maybe a toss? Smooth Air will be a good value horse, but I do not see him going off at over 20-1.

One more thing on Flores. He was forced to make that 5 or 6 wide move before the 2nd turn, well before the horses were tiring, to move EGM from 11th or 12th to 4th or 5th, because EGM was TOO far back and the pace was not that fast. Rather than use EGM's bullet fast 5 furlong speed to get a tactical position OFF of the rail (EGM hates the rail), Flores chose to play conservative (again) take EGM to the back of the pack, and place him on the rail, penned in there with Yankee Bravo to his outside. It may not have been stiffing the horse, but EGM was up against it from that point on in the SA Derby.

EGM will probably not be in the Derby, his connections are still in a state of shock and are not doing the right thing by this gelding just sitting in California in a daze. This was a horse that ran the final 1/8th mile in a 9 furlong race in 11.4 seconds (The Sham). This is also a horse that could run a bullet 5 furlong drill in 58 seconds and set a track record in the mile in the San Rafael. So, he had sprinter's speed and the closing kick of a Colonel John. Yet both times Flores was on EGM against Col John, CJ beat EGM to the first turn. Now, go figure that one out. Col. John ran 7 furlongs in 1.24 and change. At the same track, EGM ran 7 furlongs in 1.21 flat. There is NO WAY CJ should ever be beating EGM to the first turn. Unless David Flores is on EGM. Then, he will race that one like he races every mount, like Whirlaway!

bob black jack, any california horse...

www.myspace.com/californiaturftimes

bob black jack, any california horse...

www.myspace.com/californiaturftimes

Mac,
The defection of War Pass thru a curve into my crystal ball analysis. I had him burning up the track to the top of the stretch. They're still going to motor on the front end. I will still keep my top (3) selections where they were.
Z Fortune - Gets a perfect pace trip in here, and rolls in the stretch. I also have him @ 60/1 with my off-shore book.
Visionaire - The only horse that was doing any running in the BG. He will be making his move from the back.
I'm breaking the rules for the 3rd spot.
Smooth Air - I loved his FL. Derby.
Court Vision - every year ther's one horse that has under acheived in the spring. But, he peaks on Derby day. The horse has a win over CD. Then when he gets back the storied track. He fires a bullet work over the surface.
Enough said - I'll see everyone at the IRS window.
Steve - Atlanta

Mac,

Flores is a good rider, but he is too conservative for a horse like El Gato Malo or even Big Brown or Colonel John for that matter. Multi dimensional horses which have both tactical speed and a nice late gear if allowed to stalk. IMO he was clearly outridden by Gomez on Colonel John in the Sham, because even though EGM broke second and CJ 5th, CJ outran EGM to the first turn and the stalking spot right off of Victory Pete's shoulder.
Instead, Flores chose to take back EGM and place him right behind the pacesetter on the rail- a very stupid move to try and save ground behind a horse you know is going to back up before the end of the race...then Flores was griping later that he was "stuck" behind horses, and that he was "penned in" behind VP, and had to go 4 wide into the stretch after CJ got the jump on them. Well, whose choice was it to take EGM back in such a small field behind the pace on the rail, the only possible place to be jammed in. Answer: it was Flores.

Fast forward to the SA Derby. EGM fired a bullet 5 furlong drill, 1/53 horses that day. Dollase says the plan is to be more forwardly placed and get the jump on CJ. Question- which horse was moved to the back of the pack, along the rail, after a bad start? Answer-El Gato Malo was dead last or next to dead last going into the first turn, on the rail again. Why? The run up to the first turn was far enough he could have at least used a little of that tactical speed to get the gelding midpack. Instead he goes to the back of the pack, has to actually race-ride EGM along the backstretch and into the 2nd turn very wide again. Why use up so much of the horse in the backstretch if you are so dead set on taking the horse back after the break?

Flores may be good on 1 dimensional closers or speed, but I routinely have horseplayers telling me he is the worse jockey at measuring pace, and lets speed get away from him all of the time. I used to think he was very good, but when I began breaking down his races and he is just too conservative and ends up making too many mistakes to overcompensate for his initial slow moves. Not every race sets up like this year's San Rafael, where he gave EGM a masterful ride. In the Sham and in the SA Derby, it was in the horse's best interest to be more forwardly place at every call of the race. The proof is that EGM is better than at least 5-8 horses that are in on earnings and that one is on the outside looking in.

I can almost guarantee you that if Flores and BBJ are in the Derby, Flores will keep BBJ off of the lead. At 10 panels, that horse's only shot is to try and control the pace and hold on. He will never get 10 panels stalking the pace.

After looking at some of the past performances i do think that Recapture The Glory will run farther than people think, his dosage is awful but with out War Pass in there he could be the controlling speed this year...As you all know alot of these prep races have been in goofy fractions also...Ill just sit back and see what post position he draws in at...No doubt he will be like 30-40 maybe 50-1 i dont know...War Emblem paid 42$ after his win in Illinios and i believe RTG was run in a better time....I know bris gave him a 104

mac/ryan,

I too remember that work being posted as a mistake and taken down a day or two later.

Potato,

Tomcito beat Salute the Sarge over his surface. Actually, almost everyone beat Salute the Sarge. Tomcito ran far shorter than his best on a surface he detested. What's STS's excuse? I gave Tomcito little chance, and I sort of like the horse. Same reason I played against Atoned.

Mac,

Monba, Adiano and Z Fortune are on almost every turf writer's top 10 list. Plonk at ESPN has Adriano at #3, Finely has Monba in his top 5, Haksin has Monba #1 and Z Fortune rated highly. Are you sure these are longshots, given how many in the media (including yourself) are hyping them up as smart bets?

Colonel John is at the top of almost every turf writer's list-except for Haskin, who has Monba up there. Question: We are told that the public will be hammered with Big Brown by the turf press repeatedly and that BB will be both the morning line and the likely post time favorite. Yet, Big Brown is not atop the media's lists. Colonel John is. Exactly WHO is it from the media who has BB over Col. John, and why is BB the public's choice if no one in the media is pounding him? Is it just seen as too unsophisticated to have Big Brown as your top horse? The public poll at Racing Dispatch has Col John as number 1. This year it appears that the hype is over the hype that really does not exist around Big Brown. Colonel John appears the clear number 1 choice, regardless of what Battaglia thinks.

How is, "Yeah, he may be a freak and ran huge in the FL Derby, BUT he has little foundation and if Curlin could not do it he will not either", supposed to be hype?

Is there any turf writer or handicapper besides Battaglia or Mike Watchmaker who ranks BB #1? Go to the Louisville Carrier Journal. Not 1 of their turf writers picks BB as number 1 or as their odds on to win the Derby.

Mac,

I think confusion will reign on Derby Day. I see Big Brown anywhere from 3-2 to 3-1. Most likely, as you write Pyro, Big Brown and Col. John will all be under 10-1 and maybe all hovering somewhere between 5-2 to 5-1. Spreading favoritism out will open up lots of longshot possibilities. Gayego 10-1 or greater with a good draw will be worth it based on Arkansas Derby performance as will Z Fortune coming out of the same race. Eight Belles, what the heck, why not? I like quite a few underneath like Smooth Air, Adriano, Cowboy Cal and Monba.
As we all know post position and pace will determine outcome and making predictions before the draw is silly at best, reckless at worst. I will reevaluate after the draw. I hope Big Brown draws well, so he can take more money.

Recapture's dosage is high, but so was Charismatic and War Emblems and one other Derby winner that I can't remember. Recapture came home faster in the final 3f's--36ish--in Illinois than Big Brown did in FLA. Granted he wasn't going 45 up front, but it is what it is.

As far as Adriano, I can't tell but I feel like maybe he didn't switch leads in the Lane's End, and it was basically a hand urging. Can someone that knows how to tell check that out?

I think that fast work of Adriano's was mistakenly attributed to him, and was run by another horse. I remember seeing that posted somewhere.

Calvin, Big Truck has got the Princequillo line going as well, do you have any thoughts on his overall pedigree?

Mac, I think you're right but I can't figure out who the 4th favorite will be...the 4 through 8 spots could go any way. I was really hoping Denis of Cork wouldn't make the field because I don't know what to do with him and it would have been easier to handicap with Tomcito or Atoned in that spot in the gate. I'm thinking Z Fortune will be possibly as high as the 4th favorite, around 12-1 or he could go as a Thunder Gulch-like 25-1 or so. What do you think of that second tier, with Gayego, Adriano, Z Fortune, Denis of Cork, etc.

Mac and Derbyme,

I think the time may have been wrong too. On Keenland's barn notes they have the work at 46.60. Here is the link:

http://ww2.keeneland.com/Lists/News/dispformalt.aspx?ID=5693&keepThis=tr...

I still won't play Adriano. He's not a standout at work on the dirt. I watched his race in the FOY again and his stride looked uncomfortable. It didn't look as if he tried for even 4 strides in the whole race. I heard he had to steady around the first turn. He broke widest of all, got a slight nudge and was checked ever so slightly. He'll get more than that in the Derby for sure. I know Motion said he lost it before the race by getting too worked up with the crowd. If he lost it before that race there what will he do with all those fans in Kentucky? After the LE Motion said himself that the horse is more of a turf horse. I think Derby fever caught him and the owner. I don't want my money on a horse who's that fickle and doesn't have a good run on dirt or a bullet work on it. I think Prado (my second fave jock, KD being my #1) made a big mistake. He's human. In his defence Adriano runs like and must feel like a monster on Poly and grass.

Geronimo,

One good thing about Flores is that pace is always on his mind. This is more than can be said for most jocks. I will agree that he is conservative but I wouldn't mind having him on my horse. I aso agree that he made mistakes on EGM. We are all human. That being said BBJ rated quite nicely off a moderate pace in the SA Derby and I expect him to press the pace in Kentucky. Flores will do a great job on him. I have no doubt. BBJ is a live longshot in my books.

Odds,

Last year only 5 horses were 10-1 or below on the morning line. Here's how I think it will go with my probable 20.

1. Big Brown 3-1 (I see this one winning but longshots for the minors)

2. Colonel John 9/2

3. Pyro 6-1

4. Monba 8-1 (Pletcher effect)

5. Eight Belles 10-1 (Would prefer to see her in the Oaks)

6. Tale of Ekati 12-1

7. Adriano 15-1

8. Cool Coal Man 17-1

9. Gayego 18-1

10. Recapturetheglory 18-1

11. Z Fortune 20-1

12. Court Vision 20-1

13. Denis of Cork 22-1

14. Bob Black Jack 25-1

15. Smooth Air 25-1

16. Visionaire 30-1

17. Cowboy Cal 30-1

18. Z Humor 40-1

19. Indian Sun 50-1

20. Big Truck 50-1

For the last time, Santa Anita's cushion track and Keeneland's polytrack are completely different surfaces!

Substitute Anak Nakal For Indian Sun. Same odds.

Mcmitch,

He changed leads very smoothly. A really nice performance.

Patbateman,

I don't have time right now but I'll get back with you on Big Truck later.

Potato,

Agree on Keeneland surfaces, but Behindthebar seemed to like it just fine. Go Between ran pretty well. Ditto Ariege and Golden Doc A. Perhaps STS will rebound and win Breeder's Cup Synth Mile, but until then...

Mac,

Thanks for clearing that up. It helps a lot.

I agree with you on Eight Belles' chances but I think all the rich women on May 3 will have a big say in her odds.

I have just put Denis of Cork #1 on my longshot list after his bullet work at CD this morning. 5/8 in 1:00 with the final 1/4 in 22 4/5 and gallop out in 1:12 2/5. Now there is a work. He would have been vying for favouritism if not for his owners mental breakdown. I also don't buy any results from Hawthorne. There is a HUGE inside speed bias over there. Biggest bias I've seen in a long time. I love this horse at a track that both he and his jock love. Follow the link to see how impressed the great Steve Haskin was:

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44710

I'm with you Ryan. Denis of Cork should be considered a live longshot after that excellent work. Hawthorne has pretty much been a conveyor belt so far this spring. The first 5 finishers in the Illinois derby did not change position in the entire race. Denis of Cork has shown that he can run well fresh and that he likes Churchill. I just don't see a jockey like Calvin Borel winning back-to-back Kentucky derbys.

if your talking longshots, i say either eight belles, adriano or Denis of Cork could get a piece if things go well, but even though its not the strongest group of 3year olds big brown colonel john and pyro just stand above anyone else regardless, i don't see anything overly special in recapturetheglory or gayego. Adriano's Jockey(prado) chose him over other 'live' mounts and he said that adriano's excelleration reminds him of barbaro, and thats a BIG statement in my opinion. but one things almost certian, there will be no triple crown winner this year(let alone the derby and preakness winner being the same.)

DOC has never impressed me in the least. He beat Unbridled Vicar by a neck in an allowance race earlier this year. That rival went on to finish like dead last in the Louisianna Derby.

Also, I don't think that he bounced in his last at Hawthorne. He ran exactly how I expected, he lost. Recapturetheglory and Z Humor were not lucky to beat him that day, they are just far superior horses.

Potato,
DOC raced 4 wide the whole way around the sloppy track. He closed well and finished in a time faster than the Risen Star. Unbridled Vicar then came back and ran a respectable 4th in the Risen star while not getting the best trip. Look how Sierra Sunset came back after a loss to DOC. You're wrong about this one Potato. I'd bet on it.

prior to the illinois derby, DOC was the most overrated horse on the derby trail. Not only do I believe that he won't hit the board, i will go as far as saying that he does not belong in the field. if you are looking for a live longshot, others seem more likely.

Mac,

A little off topic...I am interested to hear what you thought about Brother Derek's return in the 3rd at Santa Anita yesterday. He didn't lose by much and it looks as though with time he may regain his Grade I form.

Calvin, I like the Ribot line too, but it didn't make Tiago and Nobiz Like Shobiz win last year, and I think Gayego has already run really big efforts this year. I see that Pyro shares El Hattab with Giacomo, is that significant in your mind?

I am usually looking for a horse who has yet to run his best effort of the season, much less his career, for the win, so I worry that Pyro, Colonel John and Gayego may possibly have already run a really big effort this spring and may not be ready for another career or season's best effort right now.

Z Fortune looks like he's got it all going for him now, and could be sitting on his career best effort, if he draws a good post I think he's got as good a chance as anyone to win.

Lava Man, who worked six furlongs under regular exercise rider Tony Romero in 1:14 2/5 at Hollywood Park on Saturday, is “on target” to make his 2008 debut in the $150,000 Khaled Stakes on April 27, according to trainer Doug O’Neill.

The king is back on the track. Well Lava Man could make history by becoming the only horse to win the Gold Cup four times. Native Diver (1965-67) and Lava Man (2005-07) are the only three-time Gold Cup winners.

Brother Derek needs to ship East and win as many good dirt races as he can before Curlin gets back. On the synth, he's a good allowance horse. I doubt he can beat Heatseeker or Champs Elysees out west.

Court Vision will take it all

ryan and pat ... please check out my last post on mac's previous blog ...

calvin ... while no one could disagree that pedigree plays a major part in deciding who is going to get 10 panels, i think you are over-analyzing just a bit (by that i mean a lot) ... for example, if z fortune comes rolling home to score in ten days, i dont think it will have anything to do with his 5th great-grandsire ... nonetheless your info is interesting ...

geronimo ... dunno how else to say this ... but egm is simply not a classic horse ... period ... he won exactly one race in which three of the best jockeys in north america inanely rode unthinkable fractions in tandem ... if i were on the track that day, i would have run around those horses ... and please lay off of flores ... he has done a great job this spring on capable horses ... swept the three stakes opening day ... two great control-the-speed runs with monterrey jazz (one each on turf and synth) ... and how exactly did he measure the pace on saturday in the lexington? (perfectly i would say) ... i realize you try to give him some credit ... but the bottom line is that gomez is a better jockey and colonel john a better horse ...

ryan ... i think your odds are pretty well spotted ... swap 8b and gayego ... and move rtg and ccm above 20-1 ... but other than that, very close to what i would guess ...

as far as longshots go, i must say smooth air is the most logical to me ... not one clunker all year ... trainer smartly working him longer distances ... already arrived at churchill ... check, check, and check ...

i am hearing a lot of z fortune buzz and i cannot understand why ... now, i will agree that he did not get the best of trips in hot springs ... but how did he not gain one step on gayego in the entire stretch? ... mindboggling to me ... you guys can ramble on and on for hours about pedigree ... but for me there is a 'heart factor' with these horses that is totally ignored for the most part ... and since someone brought up lava man, we can use him for an example ... does anyone think his victory in last year's gold cup had anything to do with pedigree? ... didnt think so ... the horse willed himself to the wire first ... to see z fortune on the flank of another horse for the entire stretch on his final prep and not go by is a major negative ...

a note on court vision ... i know a heavy heavy hitter who uses key horses on the bottom of supers ... and he is foaming at the mouth over this horse ... for example, take the last three derbys (albeit a small sample) ... the horse who eventually finished fourth was 19th, 19th, and 20th at the 3/4 pole ... and surely cv will be at the back ... a couple of other positives are that he likes churchill, is working well, and hasnt run his best race yet ... that being said i dont think he is nearly fast enough to get to the wire in front ... but will certainly pick off nearly all the others ... im sure my friend's super tickets will look like this ... 5*5*cv*all and 5*5*all*cv ...

thanks a bunch for the dialogue mac ...

mac,

I hope I'm wrong. Brother Derek is a special horse, and I don't know if we've seen his best. I'd sure like to see him in the Churchill Downs Handicap at 7f, then the Met Mile or Pimlico Special. Maybe if Indian Sun runs in the Preakness or Crown Royal(T)... Speaking of the Met Mile... anyone know where Commentator is pointing?

full of fire- entire post was right on

appreciate that romccann ...

Mac,

I know I may have beat this angle till it's dead but I want to save you some money. You're the best of the bloggers at repsonding to us the fans. I really appreciate it. I'm a horse racing junkie so having someone like you responding means a lot. If you have time have a read of this article by Jeremy Plonk posted on ESPN and let me know what you think.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?colum...

Mac,

Appreciate it. I agree that's his best observation. I won't write off Adriano yet. That would be foolish. Still about 10 days to go. He can still sway me. Prado is my # 2 man and I respect him a lot. I won't forget the handicapping lesson. I also won't forget my lesson on horses for courses. I'll just have to try to balance the 2. Thanks so much for the help.

Mac-

First, I'm going to start "throwing out horses" to get the field down to a manageable size:

No Derby winner in the last 50 years was worse than 4th in his last race so out goes
Pyro (no value anyway) Cool Coal Man, Big Truck, Ana Nakal, Visionaire, and Salute the Sarge (hopefully his connections are level headed enough not to run him anyway)

Also, with only 3 starts, Big Brown should be a throw out (but for some reason with War Pass out, I can't bring myself to do it-hopefully I'll wise up in the next 10 days, or at least use him at the bottom of gimmix only)

Cowboy Cal appears to me to be a grass/poly horse so he's out

Tale Of Ekati was all out to beat War Pass on a drying out track, and we now know that War Pass was running with a fracture in his leg as well as 2 staples in his head-adios!

Z Fortune hung when it looked certain that he was going to pass Gayego-can't use as the winner.

Now that the field is down to a reasonable size, here's what I've come up with:

1.) BOB'S BLACKJACK-Col. John was all out to beat him at SA on a day when closers ruled-doesn't need the lead but can set right off of it.

2.) MONBA-Don't forget he was FOY favorite and ran with a cut leg while having breathing problems-Also has a win at Churchill.

3.) EIGHT BELLES-Anyone see the ESPN broadcast of the Lexington when the reporter was standing between EIGHT BELLES and PROUD SPELL. (She kind of reminds me of Chyna in the WWE-has every right to compete with the guys) PLEASE GUYS, IF YOU ENTER HER, RUN HER-PICK A RACE ALREADY AND BE SPORTSMEN!

4.) Z HUMOUR (no idea why-pure "gut play")

5.)COLONEL JOHN-even though I though BBJ was the best horse in SA Derby, horses coming out of Cal have been running very well on dirt, and if we get the others in with PYRO and BIG BROWN out of the Supers, we'll still get paid very well.

Talk to you again in 5 minutes when I change my mind again!

Mac-
My win bet will definitly be Bobs Blackjack even though I think Monba has equally as good of a chance to win the race. Reason being is that I've already got Monba, as well as Eight Belles and Z Humour as part of an "all others" pool 3 future wager. (Can't ever remember a pool 3 "all others" with so many legitimate contenders, and to me 14/1 for all of those horses is a great value-that's about what Monba will go off at byhimself and I get 6 or 7 others as a "bonus") I also have Z Humour in pool one at about 45/1. Even though I used Colonel John 5th, that's where the dilemma comes in- I don't think he'll win the race, history tells me that Big Brown won't win the race, but I'm reluctant to toss him (even though I shouldn't be) just based on pure talent, and I can't find any others I really like. I could end up on Big Brown on race day if somehow BBJ doesn't get in, and as for gimmix, we're gonna be at Churchill those 2 days, a friend of mine and I are putting $700 a day each in (He's trusting me to make the picks-he's been with me when I've had some nice hits, and even cashed an IRS ticket for me, so he is under the illusion I know what I'm doing-the pressure's on to justify his faith in me) so I'll have to look at the other races to figure out what I'm going to put into the Derby gimmix. (Supers and Pick 4s are huge on Derby weekend, and I have to keep reminding myself that money earned on other races over the weekend spends just as well as money earned on the Derby!)

Mac, Bob Black Jack will control the race and many positions for the colts during the race. He your guaranteed pacesetter. His speed will carry the field to the 1 1/8 pole. With War Pass removed, this colt has no chance at winning unless he's the leader from the time the gates open.

In each race there is always one colt which controls the pace and the racing strategy of the field. This is my first principal of handicapping. Finding the "key colt"

BBJ inherits the key's. Therefore building around the colt capable speed, put at risks for many of the colts chances. Like Gayego, must force the pace from a stalking position early. That puts many of the early running colts at a disadvantage like Smooth Air. His trainers probably believes his best chances is to race directly next to Big Brown and hope to move when Big Brown does. That would be a huge error, since Big Brown will make an early move and never see the lead around the entire far turn and lose pace. Bob Black Jack and Gayego is Big Brown and Smooth Air downfall. They can not keep pace with the California Speedsters.

So the winner comes from the third tier of horses running the last 1/4 of the race?

Colonel John, Monba or Pyro have the best last turn of foot with no distance issues.

3-1, 20-1, 5-1

Cowboy Cal is my longshot pick, though there are a lot of 'ifs' involved with that. IF he goes. IF he works @ Churchill. IF that work is good. . . He should be able to get the distance and was not on the lead when he won the Laurel Futurity or the Tropical Park Derby (though he did press the pace in that one), so maybe he doesn't absolutely-one-hundred-percent need the lead. My other longshot play will be Anak Nakal. Haha, might as well aim for the armored truck, right?

Barry,

You're joking if you think BBJ needs the lead. Roussel says RCTG will have the lead . E.T. Baird is going to gun for it. BBJ settled nicely in the SA Derby and there is NO WAY David "Conservative, I hate to be on the lead" Flores (though I like him a lot) will gun for the lead and set fast fractions. That's not happening whether or not that's the horse's best chance.I'm seeing 2 in 23 3/5, 4 in 47.00 with Big Brown BBJ and Gayego pressing RCTG. The pace will severely quicken from there. Watch the replay of the Florida Derby. Smooth Air will sit at least 3-4 lengths off Big Brown hoping he folds with more pressure up front. I just don' think the first 4 panels are going to be all that quick this year without