Just Ramblin' Around

I'll be there early on Saturday Mac. Wooooooooooo!

Mac---Whats your gut feeling about Pyro ??

Mac,

Nice use of the word "bloggist" again. Colonel John's work has him tied with Big Brown on my list. I loved it. I started to warm up more to Monba after the Derby Trial. As I'm sure you know Monba's win at Churchill was a neck victory over Macho Again at a mile and it was in a good time too. Macho again was quite impressive in the Derby trial. Then Monba works poorly today at Keeneland. He was totally outworked by Ready's Echo and his gallop out was worse than the work (if that's even possible). I know he's not been the best work horse but at least his work before the Blurgrass was a 4 in 47.20 that was 4th out of 56. I don't know what to do with this horse now. Any thoughts oh esteemed bloggist?

What is the story behind Colonel John's name?

Good to hear you are on site Mac, hopefully Eight Belles draws the 20 post so that I can single her out on the front end of the Oaks Derby double. I guess everyone likes the way Gayego looks in person, single digit odds that is saying something. I wonder if Pyro will be 3rd favorite if thats the case. Its great to see so many hoses at Churchill Downs already, I can't imagine the California horses ever shipping late again. Yeah I saw the Adriano work on TV and it looked a little uncomfortable to me. Colonel John looks ready to roll and I though Gayego looked fine the other day, but it didn't really look any better than Court Vision's work to me. That being said, I guess I will have to use Gayego and Court Vision in the 4th position on some superfecta tickets, along with Cowboy Cal, Big Truck, and Cool Coal Man. I don't see any of those listed horses finishing any higher than 3rd under almost any pace scenario. It is shaping up to be a great race though, the best betting race ever.

Quarantine Smooth Air, That all I have to say. I hope the vet are involved. Just because his temp is down, does not say the horse is not sick. There are other factor which will prevent the horse from running. Like lost of weight over the past few days.

Mac why do you say Dennis of Cork is out. Couple of days till the draw my friend.

Sripa keeps writing on the blog the \"Big Truck is not running. That put Dennis of Cork in the field if he is right.

What do you think Mac.

Nevertheless, I believe the Derby is simply a two horse race.

Colonel John vs, Pyro

I rate Gayego evenly with Big Brown but a cut below the top two going a distance of 1 1/4 miles. Distance issues with the bottom two.

Finally, Mac this year, I have not seen any horse drill officially further then 5 furlongs. Most unusual, since they are running 1 1/4 miles.

Why do you believe the trainer elected to train shorter distance in preparation for the Derby. Does make since to me! Rather have seen a breeze of 1 mile.

barry,

Saw footage of Big Truck on the track this morning. He looked great, full of energy, strong gallop. I'd be shocked if he didn't go. It is odd that we haven't seen many longer works. Before their last preps, they were everywhere, now "mantenance work" is like the new cool thing. Hard Spun did a solid mile last year, then a quick power work, and it set him up pretty good.

mac/barry,

Except for one bobble in the stretch, Colonel John looked terrific. His gallop out was especially impressive. Eoin Harty works 'em quick, but he did it solid without urging although it was not exactly effortless (ears pinned back) but one he switches leads... Dirt is not going to beat him. Most likely to upset the fave (duh), but good call.

mac,
We could see Monterrey Jazz, Brother Derek, and Surf Cat point to the Met. That could run like the Breeder's Cup if the Lute ever decides to show up.

Mr. Derby, I really hoping "The Benny" show up for the Met Mile. I think this is his year. He maybe able to get the distance. He is own a winning streak, nothing looks to beat him!

Well if Big Truck is looking great, what the heck is Mr. Sripa talking about on JD blog. This is not the time for mis-information. Never mind. Don't answer, I remember this is Derby week. Part of the game is mis-information.

Can't wait till the post position are drawn Wednesday. One thought, and its a bad one. I hope the filly draws the extreme outside. and therefore scratch, why! maybe the presence of an empty gate stall, will change the way the field is selected.

I felt all along Jones would try to race her is the Derby. I also believe he had in mind the Arkansas Derby, so when he did not prep in the Ark, my vote was, she should not race in the Derby. Again, how do you skip the qualifying races and earn a trip to the Derby. When there are horses who participated in the qualification races and will not earn the gate space? This is so belated for any owner and trainer.

Just shows the character of some of these trainers and owner. Reading the owner statements, he fill he is not breaking any rules. How about the rule of Common-Sense, Jones is a piece of work to me as well! Last year when they pulled Mario Pena from Hard Spun, Mr. Jones lost me with his big hat and all of that! Then I read a article concerning Leroy Jolley visit to the stables.

What a sale pitch Leroy gave. Finally to say "run her." Give me a break, His filly at least qualified. Winning Color qualified also. Everyone would like to see the 3-year old filly who won the Oaks race the Kentucky Derby winner. But that after the filly wins the Oak impressively like Rags to Riches.

This cross gender racing goes back to Ruffian versus Foolish Pleasure. My heart is still shader from the "okay can't speak the words."

Well Jones filly is good, but not great. She is not a Grade 1 winner as the past Derby filly winners were. She has not face the best of her division and in my book, would probably not win the Oaks anyway. Leaning towards Bobby Frankel, second time is the charm.

So here my weekend ticket. CS to CJ, California Horses pull the sweep.

I have said it all along and I will continue to say it, Derby or Oaks- Proud Spell will beat Eight Belles. She is the better filly! And I can't see Eight Belles being entered and Proud Spell not. I think I would actually consider using Proud Spell on the bottom of exotics if she goes.

No love for Pure Clan? Loves Churchill and a powerhouse closer on her day. She'll finally get her pace, and I think she'll be super tough. Of course, Country Star, Proud Spell, Golden Doc A, and Ariege have similar not-from-the-clouds closing styles... could be a rider's race with Bsharp getting the jump on them all. Also, Little Belle is taking a suspicious amount of money in futures books for her resume... I'll stick with PC at a price.

Bobby Frankel is ready with his filly. So under the radar, Country Star makes it look easy this time out.

I don't believe anyone should imagine she has lost a step after her first start this year.

Head of the class when right. Couldn't have pick a better day to prove her ability.

You will never get the odds you will receive in the Oaks. 7-1 or better.

Thanks for the advice Mac. I posted this on Justin and John's Blogs and I figured you might enjoy the read.
Here is my analysis of the probable startes' chances.

I'm taking a stand against Z Fortune who I liked a lot. I get the sense from Asmussen's comments that he thinks Z Fortune may be a tired horse after running what he calls, "the race of his life" in the Arkansas Derby. His work was just what was asked of him so it's hard to hold that against him but with so many others impressing I've got to toss him. He could come back to haunt me. As such if he looks full of energy in the mornings from now on he could regain a place at the bottom of my supers.

I'm tossing Monba since his work this week at Keeneland. He worked horribly and he pulled himself up sharply afterward. I know he's not the best work horse but he did work fourth best of 56 before the Blue Grass. He's a toss since I feel he may be bouncing off that effort.

Bob Black Jack is a toss. With the addition of blinkers he'll go for the lead. Barry you were right! He's showed he can run 1 1/8 when he rates. I'll take my chances against him holding on at 1 1/4 after cutting out what will likely be fast fractions.

Adriano is a toss. He worked terribly and he needs too many things to go his way. He needs to remain calm despite the crowd and he needs to not get bounced around. He's my pick to finish last.

Cool Coal Man is a toss. I know he's won at the track but he was also beaten out of sight on it by Anak Nakal when the stakes were higher. He seems the type to want to dominate and if he can't he packs it in. I'll let him beat me. He didn't show Pyro like form before his poor Blue Grass effort.

Big Truck is a toss despite the bullet work. He started his work fast and finished up slowly. Not the type of effort one looks for from a closer. His pedigree suggests miler and I think he'll find his niche at that reduced distance. He's a nice Grade 2 and 3 performer in the making.

Z Humor is a toss. He's just not classy enough or fast enough and he's not working well enough. He'll try his hardest and finish about 14th.

Recapturetheglory has been training "ok" according to the professional clockers. The son of Cherokee Run figures to be a victim of the pace scenario and I'm willing to bet that he'll begin to fade after 3/4.

I'm tossing Visionaire because I don't think he's good enough. In my estimation he's a step below Z Fortune and his pedigree suggests miler. He has a good trainer though and this could be one who comes back to haunt me. Still I'm willing to take that chance as there are others who I feel have better credentials. He also hasn't worked inspiringly.

Cowboy Cal is a toss too. I'm not too convinced he'll be there at the end of 1 1/4 miles on dirt after his second place effort off slow fractions in the Poly Grass. He is a high class performer without a doubt but again there are others with srtonger claims.

I'm not fond of playing horses whose health is questionable so Smooth Air is in doubt. Apparently the black cat crossed his path AGAIN today! He looked full of energy this morning so I may still play him.

I'm left with 9 or 10 horses for the super. I don't think Anak Nakal has the class but I feel he'll be the longest shot on the board and they have a way of hitting that fourth spot on D Day. He's been working well enough for me to take a gamble.

Tale of Ekati is going to be a bit of a forgotten horse and I feel he'll move up off his Wood performance. He's working quite well and he showed in the Breeder's Cup that he'll give an effort even if the conditions aren't ideal. I like his placing chances at longish odds for a Wood winner in his third run off a layoff.

Court Vision is another who could pick up minor pieces but won't inspire huge payouts as I think every "smart" horseplayer will to play him in the exotics. He's a changed fellow with the addition of blinkers and the move to Churchill.

Initially I didn't like Eight Belles but I loved her work and I think she matches up physically with the boys which is a big plus. She's classy but for some reason I doubt her ability to finish strong at the end of 10 panels. I think she'll be right there at the top of the stretch and it will be a matter of heart whether she can hold onto a place.

Gayego is working well on the Churhill strip. He also looks a picture! Everyone loves his looks and he could be bet down into single digits. I can see him being first 3 until the 1/16th pole and fading to fourth. That being said I think he'll prove just as good as Colonel John at 1 1/16 to 1 1/8. He handled Bob Black Jack quite well himself in a second place effort to Georgie Boy.

Denis Denis Denis of Cork has finally got in! I'm elated as he is working like a champ. His owner could be vindicated in the biggest way if he bounces back with a win here. In my estimation this one has a chance to win it at decent odds. I figure he'll go off at about 15-1. My only pari bet will be an across the board bet on this guy. If he hits he'll pay me back for all my money spent on the exotics.

Pyro finished up his work well today under no urging at all. His work was far more inspiring than that of his stablemate Z Fortune. He showed in the Risen Star that he is a class above that one and I believe that still holds true. He is high class and barring serious traffic problems he'll be flying at the end. He could be this year's forgotten horse like Monarchos. He can surely win but if he does I can only hit the tri and definately not the super.

Colonel John is coming into this race like a beast. He overcame adversity to win the SA Derby after being unexpectedly shuffled back coming into the home turn. If you watch his previous races you'll see this SA Derby was the first time he was given right hand urging by the jockey. With this added information and a clear run he's a definate late running threat to Big Brown. The work this guy put in yesterday was the best I've seen on video. The California form has held up and he's been the best out there ( I would have loved to have seen Georgie Boy make the race). Ten Furlongs suits Colonel John to the bone. He's bred for it and he runs like he's yearning for it. He's all class and I'll make sure that I can win the super if he gets up.

Big Brown is still the fastest horse. If he'd broken from the 2 hole (where Elctrify broke from in the race in which he set the track record) in the Florida Derby he'd have won by 10 and own the track record. The 5 weeks between races is perfect for him to be able to bounce back off that huge effort. At the end of the Florida Derby he was playing with his ears and he wasn't even blowing when he came back to the winner's circle which leads me to believe that the race didn't take too much out of him. He figures to avoid trouble in the Derby with his high cruising speed and I can almost guarantee this one will be in front at the 1/8 pole. Desormeaux says the horse is so intelligent he thinks he can win if he's 14th early on. His camp is confident and so am I. He's a monster and I think we could be looking at the next Seattle Slew. God knows racing could use it. If he wins I'll have my best chance at cashing the exotics, but then again so will half the betting public.

Good luck to all.

barry,

I love Country Star, and she'll be one to reckon with, I'm just not so sure dirt is gonna be her surface against fillies that are at her level and excel on dirt. The form of her races has sort of fallen apart. Gotta love the price though. In that respect, I think the Oaks has all kinds of value. Even if you love Proud Spell you're likely to get a price. The only one I see as a huge underlay is Little Belle who's bandwagon seems to be growing by the day.

Will Benny the Bull be ready by the Met? His Sunshine Millions was the 3rd most impressive performance I saw this year at Gulfstream behind Commentators ridiculous track record and Big Brown's impossible FL Derby. Honorable mentions: Adriano, Ginger Punch, and Spring Waltz.

Derbyme,

What about Zenyatta? She was awfully impressive at Oaklawn. She's a lock for Champion oder filly or mare if she stays sound. She does it on dirt and synthetics!

*older

ryan,

No one loves Zenyatta more than me. Ask mac or barry. She could beat most of them on the synthetic because she was that much better than the Gr. II Cal. fillies she was beating. I think she's better on dirt, and her best distance may be 10f. Nashoba's Key would likely beat her on the synth since she's almost as talented and loves synth.

The impressive races I referred to were all at Gulfstream.

Commentator's return was the single most impressive race I've seen this year. Any idea idea if he'll end up in the Churchill Downs Handicap?

Derbyme,

I'd have to agree with you about Commentator. The problem with him is always soundness. I haven't seen his name appear on any work tabs but then again I haven't been looking. Zito said after the allowance win that plans hadn't been set in motion. After the domination in the Richter Scale Zito said the owner wants him to win the Whitney again. Zito has also mentioned Commentator's affinity for Gulfstream and Saratoga. It's possible that he may run in the Churchill Handicap but I wouldn't count on it. Zito could try to prep him at Belmont in a race for New York breds. He certainly won't be running him often before the Whitney as he'll want to be sure he has a sound horse for that race.

I can't believe people have Big Brown at 100-1 or whatever, that is truly amazing. What a great feeling to have one of those tickets laying around. Mac that would be great to see all of the favorites run well, if that happens who do you think wins?