James Scully's Derby Report (March 19)

In stunning fashion, two-year-old champion WAR PASS (Cherokee Run) suffered his first career loss with a last-place effort in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (G3). The Nick Zito-trained colt didn't display his customary speed after being squeezed at the start and wound up backing out of it at the top of the stretch, finishing more than 23 lengths behind the winning BIG TRUCK (Hook and Ladder). War Pass exited in good order, according to Zito, and will still be pointed toward the April 5 Wood Memorial (G1), but the Tampa Bay Derby exposed the one-dimensional front runner. By a champion sprinter and out of a speed-oriented Mr. Prospector mare, War Pass' pedigree was a big concern entering the season, and the Tampa Bay Derby served as his first start around two turns on a fast track.

Saturday turned out to be a big afternoon for state-bred programs in New York and California. Big Truck is a New York-bred, and the winners of the Rebel S. (G2) and San Felipe S. (G2), SIERRA SUNSET (Bertrando) and GEORGIE BOY (Tribal Rule), respectively, were both bred in California. Who would have ever expected such a thing?

Big Truck is coming on for Barclay Tagg. He drew high praise from his conditioner last summer when opening his career with a pair of impressive wins over New York-bred opponents, and the bay colt suffered his first setback over an off track in the restricted Sleepy Hollow S. at Belmont Park in October, finishing third by a half-length to GIANT MOON (Giant's Causeway). However, Big Truck was never a factor when stepping up to face open company in his juvenile finale, recording a fourth in the Remsen S. (G2), and his three-year-old season began poorly with a well-beaten fifth in the January 5 Hutcheson S. (G2) over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park.

Big Truck rebounded from those debacles with a fast-closing second in the February 16 Sam F. Davis S., finishing a half-length back of FIERCE WIND (Dixie Union), and he rallied determinedly to catch ATONED (Repent) in deep stretch of the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby, winning by a neck. Big Truck hasn't earned a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating, but he registered a career-best 99 figure on Saturday.

Tagg mentioned training Big Truck up to the Kentucky Derby (G1), but left open the possibility of one more prep. His supporters have to be hoping for the latter. Big Truck raced close to the pace until the far turn of the Tampa Bay Derby, when he came under a ride, and the colt actually lost ground on the final bend as Atoned passed him on the far outside. He kicked it in after straightening into the stretch, but Atoned figured to be a little short coming back off a lengthy layoff. Big Truck, who is out of a Go for Gin mare, hasn't been nine furlongs yet, and he hasn't run well fresh in the past. Why wouldn't his connections give him another race to build upon before the Kentucky Derby?

Credit Atoned with a solid showing. Unraced since a troubled second in the Remsen, the Todd Pletcher runner traveled wide most of the entire way in the Tampa Bay Derby and surged to a clear lead in midstretch before being caught late. The stakes-winning colt hasn't run very fast yet (career-best 98 Speed rating), but Atoned owns plenty of foundation and is eligible to keep improving in his final prep race.

Sierra Sunset captured the Rebel in convincing fashion, rolling to a three-length score for conditioner Jeff Bonde, and the Northern California-based colt was the only winner of Saturday's three preps to earn a triple-digit Speed rating, posting a 103. He broke well under Chris Emigh and stalked the pace in second, racing well off the rail the entire way. It was clear entering the far turn that Emigh had plenty of horse under him, and Sierra Sunset swooped past the pacesetter and entered the stretch drive full of run, quickly opening up a daylight advantage. Maiden winner KING'S SILVER SON (Mizzen Mast), a 17-1 outsider, produced a brief run to loom as a threatening presence in midstretch, but Sierra Sunset went on to the wire as much the best.

Winner of the California Cup Juvenile S. and Bay Meadows Juvenile S. in back-to-back starts last fall, Sierra Sunset was no factor when wrapping up his juvenile season with a sixth in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and opening 2008 with a fourth in the San Rafael S. (G3). The bay colt dropped in class off those starts and headed to Oaklawn Park, where he finished second in the Southwest S. (G3) prior to the Rebel. The April 12 Arkansas Derby (G2) will be next, but Sierra Sunset, who is by Bertrando and out of a Pirate's Bounty mare, will have to outrun his breeding as distances increase. The competition also figures to get much tougher in his upcoming starts.

Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]), the 3-5 Rebel favorite, was a huge disappointment finishing fifth. Stablemate King's Silver Son, who needed six starts before breaking his maiden in a slow time at Fair Grounds on January 21, finished a clear second in his first start against winners. Rebel third-placer ISABULL (Holy Bull), a near 27-1 outsider, finished far back in the Southwest and hasn't won a race since breaking his maiden on Polytrack last September. In hindsight, Saturday's Rebel looks like a very soft field.

Saturday's San Felipe was deeper in talent, but the top three contenders -- Georgie Boy, GAYEGO (Gilded Time) and BOB BLACK JACK (Stormy Jack) -- were all unproven around two turns. Georgie Boy passed the test with flying colors, rolling past Gayego in deep stretch to win the 1 1/16-mile heat going away by three parts of a length. The Kathy Walsh charge remains a complete unknown on dirt, but he's clearly a top-class performer on synthetic surfaces.

Winner of the Del Mar Futurity (G1), Georgie Boy returned from a five-month layoff to capture the seven-furlong San Vicente S. (G2), winning off by 3 1/4 lengths. He netted a 106 Speed rating for that effort. His Speed figure dropped to a 95 on Saturday, but Georgie Boy looked very good, with the exception of not changing leads in the stretch. His pedigree doesn't inspire much confidence in a classic distance, but Georgie Boy hasn't shown any distance limitations so far. He'll likely stretch out to nine furlongs in the April 5 Santa Anita Derby (G1), where he'll face the two other leading three-year-olds in California, COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) and EL GATO MALO (El Corredor).

Gayego figures to go on to the Santa Anita Derby for Paulo Lobo, but trainer James Kasparoff plans to ship Bob Black Jack elsewhere, stating that the synthetic tracks don't suit his front-running style.

Upcoming

Saturday's Lane's End S. (G2) at Turfway Park is the lone graded event for three-year-olds this weekend, and a mostly unproven cast of 12 has been assembled. Top contenders include TURF WAR (Dixie Union), HALO NAJIB (Halo's Image) and CHITOZ (Forest Wildcat).

Top 10

1) PYRO -- He's on schedule for his next start in the April 12 Blue Grass (G1)

2) COLONEL JOHN -- Returned to the races with a game win in the Sham (G3)

3) EL GATO MALO -- No dirt experience but late runner is talented

4) COURT VISION -- Improvement expected in Wood off his late-running third in Fountain of Youth (G2)

5) VISIONAIRE -- Michael Matz runner rallied boldly for Gotham (G3)

6) GEORGIE BOY -- Closed strongly to win going away when making two-turn debut in San Felipe

7) BIG BROWN -- Smashing allowance winner will make stakes bow in Florida Derby (G1)

8) COOL COAL MAN -- Fountain of Youth winner is headed to Blue Grass

9) ATONED -- Owns two-year-old class and returned to the races with an encouraging showing in Tampa

10) DENIS OF CORK -- Will use a light schedule to prepare for Kentucky Derby