James Scully's Derby Report (March 26th)

Saturday's Lane's End S. (G2) highlighted the changing landscape in Thoroughbred racing. Prior to the race, trainer Graham Motion wasn't keen on the idea of pursuing the Kentucky Derby (G1) with ADRIANO (A.P. Indy), who Motion felt was better on the turf. After the colt crushed his 10 rivals over the Polytrack at Turfway Park, the Kentucky Derby became a very viable option for the talented sophomore.

"The horse showed that on his day he can be brilliant," Motion said before adding, "I think we all agree that he's probably more of a turf horse."
Jockey Edgar Prado summed it up well.

"I know if horses handle the turf well, they will handle the Polytrack," the jockey explained.

Adriano is bred for the dirt. His sire, 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy, won the Belmont S. (G1) and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), and his top progeny -- Horse of the Year Mineshaft, Belmont S. (G1) heroine Rags to Riches and Preakness (G1) winner Bernardini -- excelled on dirt. Adriano's second dam, Golden Treat (Theatrical [Ire]), won the 1992 Santa Anita Oaks (G2) on dirt and finished fourth, beaten 1 1/4 lengths, in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs. This is the same female family of 1987 Belmont winner Bet Twice, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Adriano has raced only once on a conventional main track, suffering a rough trip from post 12 before checking in ninth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Motion attributed the setback to the colt's pre-race demeanor.

"I thought (one) key (in the Lane's End) was that he was good in the paddock," Motion said. "He's very hot-blooded. In the Fountain of Youth, he kind of fell apart (before the race) that day."

Adriano broke his maiden on the turf at Saratoga and finished fourth in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) over Keeneland's Polytrack. He opened 2008 with an impressive showing on the grass at Gulfstream, posting a 6 3/4-length romp. In the Lane's End, the chestnut raced close to the pace while four-wide early and launched his move approaching the far turn, seizing command as he turned into the stretch. Adriano was on cruise control while clear through the lane, winning by 2 1/2 lengths as Prado throttled him down under the wire.

Motion mentioned the April 19 Lexington S. (G2) at Keeneland as a possible final prep for the Kentucky Derby, but it won't be surprising to see him train Adriano up to the race. Hard Spun parlayed an easy win in last year's Lane's End into a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby six weeks later. Perhaps all Adriano needs to do is keep it together in the paddock and post parade, and he'll run big at Churchill Downs.

He's one of many serious prospects this season facing the dirt question. Three of the top 10 contenders presently -- COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow), EL GATO MALO (El Corredor) and GEORGIE BOY (Tribal Rule) -- will make their dirt debut at Churchill on May 3. Adriano compares favorably with any three-year-old based on talent, but we don't know whether he can excel on three different surfaces -- turf, Polytrack and dirt.

HALO NAJIB (Halo's Image) offered a solid run for second in the Lane's End and clearly likes synthetic tracks, winning the O.B.S. Championship S. two starts back. However, Halo Najib wasn't a serious factor in his last two dirt efforts. MEDJOOL (Monarchos), who was making his first start versus winners after breaking his maiden at Santa Anita on February 18, finished another three-quarters of a length back in third in a very respectable performance. He's eligible to keep improving for conditioner David Hofmans.

With only one round of preps remaining, it was encouraging to see a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating (101) in the Lane's End. That's one of the best figures for a Kentucky Derby prospect this year. Speed ratings have been down, and here's a look at the key prep races so far in 2008 and the Speed numbers earned by the last five winners of each race:

1/12 San Rafael (G3)

El Gato Malo -- 98
2007 Notional -- 98
2006 Brother Derek -- 108
2005 Spanish Chestnut -- 99
2004 Imperialism -- 104
2003 Rojo Toro -- 100

The San Rafael was run on a synthetic track for the first time this year, and El Gato Malo was super impressive in the one-mile test, winning by 6 1/4 lengths. I was surprised to see him receive only a 98 BRIS Speed rating for such a dominant performance. Four of the last five San Rafael winners earned a bigger number.

2/9 Risen Star (G3)

Pyro -- 96
Notional -- 100
Lawyer Ron -- 105
Scipion -- 95
Gradepoint -- 98
Badge of Silver -- 109
PYRO (Pulpit) produced a stirring stretch run to capture the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star by two lengths, but he didn't earn a strong Speed figure. The slow pace played a part, but his number is still lower than four of the last five winners.

2/18 Southwest (G3)

Denis of Cork -- 99
Teuflesberg -- 102
Lawyer Ron -- 99
Smarty Jones -- 101
Greater Good -- 95
Great Notion -- 109

DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) made his stakes debut in the one-mile Southwest and proved much the best, winning by 2 1/4 lengths in his third lifetime start. We'll give him extra credit because his Speed rating (a career best) is on par with the last four winners of the race.

2/24 Fountain of Youth (G2)

Cool Coal Man -- 100
Scat Daddy -- 101
Corinthian (finished first) -- 102
High Fly -- 105
Read the Footnotes -- 108
Trust n Luck -- 107
COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) nearly gave up a clear lead in the final yards of the 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth and earned a Speed rating lower than the last five winners.

3/1 Sham (G3)

Colonel John -- 90
Ravel -- 102
Bob and John -- 106
Going Wild -- 99
Master David -- 101
Man Among Men -- 101

This one is tough to believe. Did Colonel John really run that much slower than the last five winners of the 1 1/8-mile Sham? It did come over the reconstituted Cushion Track and there wasn't much pace in the small field. Perhaps we shouldn't put too much stock into the 90 he earned. We'll be looking for big improvement in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

3/8 Gotham (G3)

Visionaire -- 100
Cowtown Cat -- 96
Like Now -- 108
Survivalist -- 101
Saratoga County -- 107
Alysweep -- 104

VISIONAIRE (Grand Slam) reached the century mark for the first time in the 1 1/16-mile Gotham, but his Speed rating is lower than four of the last five winners. He did rally boldly through miserable conditions -- a drizzling fog storm over a sloppy Big A inner track -- so we can't knock him.

3/8 Louisiana Derby (G2)

Pyro -- 100
Circular Quay -- 105
High Limit -- 106
Wimbledon -- 103
Peace Rules -- 106
Repent -- 99

The pace was more realistic in the Louisiana Derby and Pyro once again dominated, winning off by three lengths. But his Speed rating is at least three points lower than the last four winners of the 1 1/16-mile race, and only Peace Rules was any factor in the Kentucky Derby (finished third). Pyro's threatening to be a "no-fig favorite" come Derby Day, but he does have one more start remaining in the April 12 Blue Grass (G1).

3/15 Rebel (G2)

Sierra Sunset -- 103
Curlin -- 101
Lawyer Ron -- 98
Greater Good -- 101
Smarty Jones -- 109
Crowned King -- 95
SIERRA SUNSET (Bertrando) made short work of his rivals in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel, winning convincingly by three lengths, but he was unfortunately sidelined by an injury and will miss the Triple Crown. The Jeff Bonde runner owns the best Speed rating among the key preps this year.

3/15 San Felipe (G2)

Georgie Boy -- 95
Cobalt Blue -- 98
A.P. Warrior -- 101
Consolidator -- 103
Preachinatthebar -- 101
Buddy Gil -- 102

Georgie Boy opened 2008 with 106 Speed rating in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2), but his Speed rating dropped 11 points when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in the San Felipe. The gelding was still visually impressive, closing strongly to win going away by three-quarters of a length, but the 95 doesn't compare favorably with previous winners.

3/15 Tampa Bay Derby (G3)

Big Truck -- 99
Street Sense -- 105
Deputy Glitters -- 106
Sun King -- 100
Limehouse -- 100
Region of Merit -- 94
There was plenty of pace and BIG TRUCK (Hook and Ladder) wore down a game rival to win by a neck, but he earned only a 99 and has never registered a triple-digit Speed rating. His figure is much lower than the last two winners of the 1 1/16-mile event.

3/22 Lane's End

Adriano -- 101
Hard Spun -- 106
With a City -- 101
Flower Alley -- 98
Sinister G -- 99
New York Hero -- 102

Adriano earned a good Speed figure. His number is five points less than Hard Spun, but Hard Spun was already a three-time stakes winner when he captured the Lane's End. Adriano recorded his first stakes win on Saturday.

Upcoming:

Saturday's Florida Derby (G1) looms as a very interesting race. BIG BROWN (Boundary), a smashing 12 3/4-length allowance winner at Gulfstream on March 5, will put his unbeaten mark on the line in his stakes bow. Two-for-two overall, the Richard Dutrow-trained colt is listed as the 3-1 favorite on the morning line, but he will have to overcome post 12. No horse has won at 1 1/8 miles from post 12 since Gulfstream reconfigured its track in 2005.\

Grade 1 winner MAJESTIC WARRIOR (A.P. Indy), seventh when returning off a lengthy layoff in the Louisiana Derby for Bill Mott, will attempt to rebound in the Florida Derby, and other top contenders include Sam F. Davis S. winner FIERCE WIND (Dixie Union); Fountain of Youth runner-up ELYSIUM FIELDS (El Prado [Ire]); and the stakes-placed HEY BYRN (Put It Back), an impressive two-time allowance winner at Gulfstream this year.

Top 10
1) PYRO -- Working well at Keeneland in advance of the Blue Grass
2) COLONEL JOHN -- Narrowly edged El Gato Malo in 2008 debut; Santa Anita Derby is next
3) EL GATO MALO -- Late runner figures to receive a better set-up in Santa Anita Derby
4) COURT VISION -- Fountain of Youth third-placer is headed to April 5 Wood Memorial (G1)
5) ADRIANO -- Watch out if he takes to the dirt
6) VISIONAIRE -- Liked his Gotham win but 10 furlongs is a concern with his pedigree
7) GEORGIE BOY -- Closed strongly to win two-turn debut in San Felipe
8) BIG BROWN -- Appears very talented; gets class test in Florida Derby
9) ATONED -- Encouraging return effort in Tampa Bay Derby; April 5 Illinois Derby (G2) is next
10) DENIS OF CORK -- Lightly raced colt will take a light approach to a 1 1/4-mile event under a 126-pound weight assignment