James Scully's Derby Report (April 9th)

Saturday featured a whirlwind of three key prep races. COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) lived up to expectations in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), solidifying his status as a top Kentucky Derby (G1) contender with a late-running victory. TAKE OF EKATI (Tale of Cat), a classy juvenile who had been written off following a clunker in the Louisiana Derby (G2), gained a measure of redemption with his late rally in the Wood Memorial (G1). And the Illinois Derby (G2) was a complete shocker, with maiden winner RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Cherokee Run) rolling to a four-length, wire-to-wire score at nearly 16-1.

We'll start with "The Colonel." The WinStar homebred caught a game BOB BLACK JACK (Stormy Jack) in deep stretch of the Santa Anita Derby, winning by a half-length on the wire, and Colonel John will head to Louisville, Kentucky, with a two-for-two mark this season, opening his sophomore campaign with a half-length victory in the March 1 Sham S. (G3). Both wins came at 1 1/8 miles, and the Eoin Harty-trained colt owns an excellent pedigree for the 1 1/4-mile distance. Jockey Corey Nakatani will be pursuing his first Kentucky Derby win.

Colonel John's lack of a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating is disconcerting, but he's proving to be a powerful finisher. He closed well for runner-up honors in his two-year-old finale, earning a 106 BRIS Late Pace rating in the December 22 CashCall Futurity (G1), and netted a 115 Late Pace number in the Sham, racing up on the lead from the start in a slow-paced race. Colonel John reverted to rating tactics in the Santa Anita Derby, patiently traveling in midpack during the early stages, and left himself with plenty of work to do in the stretch. He rallied in dynamic fashion to win going away, netting a 118 Late Pace rating while registering a career-best 98 Speed rating, and his Speed ratings will keep getting better.

With a solid two-year-old foundation to his credit, Colonel John will enter the Kentucky Derby on the upswing off a lightly raced three-year-old campaign. All signs point toward a peak performance on Derby Day, with his long strides devouring ground through the stretch at Churchill Downs, and Colonel John can put himself in a favorable position with his tactical speed. His supporters got great value at 19-1 and 17-1, respectively, in Pool 1 and 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Colonel John closed at 6-1 in Pool 3.

Dirt remains a question. Harty plans to drill Colonel John over Churchill's track the week before, but the colt owns no experience on natural soil, making all six career appearances over synthetic surfaces in California. However, it's easy to imagine him taking to a dirt track with his breeding (sire Tiznow won the Breeders' Cup Classic [G1] at Churchill). The unbeaten Zenyatta, who is by 2007 Derby-winning sire Street Cry (Ire), had no trouble transferring her outstanding synthetic form into her dirt debut in Saturday's Apple Blossom H. (G1) at Oaklawn Park, knocking off champion Ginger Punch (Awesome Again) with a sensational late run. Nobody should be surprised to see Colonel John do the same.

Colonel John looks as dangerous as they come in this year's Kentucky Derby crop.

Bob Black Jack turned in a honest effort while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. He distinguished himself as a sprinter over the winter, winning the six-furlong Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita in 1:06 2/5 on January 26, and recorded a solid third when making his two-turn debut next time out in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. (G2), finishing 1 3/4 lengths back of the winning Georgie Boy (Tribal Rule). After setting the pace in his three previous starts, Bob Black Jack settled nicely off the flank of pacesetter COAST GUARD (Stormy Atlantic) in second, waiting until the stretch to make his move for the lead in the Santa Anita Derby. He gained the advantage late and never quit trying while drifting in and out. In terms of getting 1 1/4 miles, Bob Black Jack owns little-to-no chance from a pedigree perspective, and he'll likely revert back to sprinting at some point this season, with the seven-furlong King's Bishop S. (G1) at Saratoga being a perfect target. But he's earned his chance to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

Coast Guard held commendably for third, but lacks graded earnings (27th on the Kentucky Derby list with $130,000). He'll be a fresh horse in the Preakness (G1). YANKEE BRAVO (Yankee Gentlemen) entered the stretch full of run but flattened out in the final furlongs, checking in fourth. He's too far back on the earnings list in 33rd.

The Santa Anita Derby served as a potential nightmare for the connections of 9-5 favorite EL GATO MALO (El Corredor), who earned only $15,000 for his fifth-place finish. El Gato Malo launched an early move to reach contention midway on the far turn in the Santa Anita Derby, but he was in trouble when David Flores went to the whip approaching the stretch drive and came up empty in the lane. Winner of the San Rafael S. (G3) and second in the Sham, El Gato Malo seemed assured of securing a spot in the Kentucky Derby field entering the Santa Anita Derby, but he's now on the outside looking in with $145,000 in graded earnings, ranking 25th on the graded earnings list. Some of the horses ahead of him will be withdrawn from consideration in the coming weeks, but the three remaining preps -- the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G2), $750,000 Blue Grass S. (G1) and $325,000 Lexington S. (G2) -- will vault prospects past him as well. The gelding needs some help.

Tale of Ekati rallied determinedly to catch WAR PASS (Cherokee Run) in the Wood Memorial, responding to jockey Edgar Prado's desperate urgings to wear down the beleaguered pacesetter in the final yards for a half-length victory. Winner of the seven-furlong Futurity (G2) prior to a fourth in the sloppy Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Tale of Ekati entered 2008 with big expectations, but the Barclay Tagg pupil waited until March 8 to make his seasonal bow and didn't get much out of the Louisiana Derby, racing far back throughout after a slow start. He drilled consecutive four-furlong works from the gate at the Palm Meadows training center in preparation for the Wood, and the bay colt broke much better, settling into a stalking third for the run down the backstretch.

War Pass got burned by the rabbit INNER LIGHT (Songandaprayer), who forced War Pass to run unreasonable early splits in :22 2/5 and :46 over the slow Aqueduct track. War Pass registered huge E1 and E2 Early Pace numbers of 121 and 123, but the early exploits took their toll, leaving him rubber-legged by the stretch drive. Both the winner and runner-up finished slowly. Tale of Ekati, who stalked a few lengths behind the leaders down the backstretch, was able to save more for the stretch, but he was softened up by the wicked pace, earning a 77 Late Pace rating. War Pass got a 71.

Tale of Ekati received a 100 Speed rating in the Wood. He owns a regal female pedigree for 1 1/4 miles, and Prado will attempt to secure a stalking trip in the first flight behind the front runners. That proved to be the catbird seat for the Tagg-trained Funny Cide in 2003, but Funny Cide had three starts to build upon that year, entering the Derby off a runner-up effort in the Wood that received a 111 Speed rating. Tale of Ekati is more lightly raced, and he's no lock to get the Derby distance or trip (a slow start would compromise him in a 20-horse field). On the other side of the coin, Tale of Ekati owns solid attributes, utilizing an effective stalk-and-pace style to garner his first Grade 1 victory last time, and he figures to be overlooked on Derby Day. He'll offer value at double-digit odds.

War Pass impressed with a much-improved effort and, given his class, he'd have a shot to lead wire-to-wire at Churchill with a trip like War Emblem enjoyed in 2002 where he was able to dictate everything on a uncontested lead. The problem is BIG BROWN (Boundary), Bob Black Jack and Recapturetheglory all figure to be winging it early, threatening to turn this year's Derby into a race similar to the 2001 edition when the late-running Monarchos capitalized upon suicidal early fractions of :22 1/5, :44 4/5 and 1:09 1/5. Of course, many observers thought Spend a Buck had little chance in 1985 with the other speed in the field, but he shot right to the front and opened a six-length advantage through a half-mile in :45 4/5 and six furlongs in 1:09 3/5 en route to a front-running demolition.

War Pass got little out of his last-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but the Wood Memorial figures to tighten him up for the main prize. There's no guarantee he'll last 10 furlongs, but what happens if he gets loose early? Dismiss him from consideration at your own risk.

The Wood set up perfectly for a closer, but COURT VISION (Gulch) was woefully unable to capitalize, flattening out after closing into contention at the top of the stretch. He spotted the leaders nearly 20 lengths during the early stages and earned only a 89 Late Pace rating for his non-threatening third. Co-owned by WinStar, the Bill Mott-trained Court Vision received the same two-race program as Colonel John, but that strategy won't work perfectly for all horses. Court Vision doesn't appear set for a top performance, entering the Kentucky Derby off a pair of clunkers, but the one-run closer can't be completely disregarded due to the possibility of a pace meltdown, which could open the barn door for all the late runners in the field. Court Vision is a Grade 3 winner over the track, winning the one-mile Iroquois S. (G3) at Churchill in late October, but he'll need to improve significantly over the next four weeks to challenge.

ANAK NAKAL (Victory Gallop) made no impact from off the pace in the Wood, checking in fifth, but the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) winner has the graded earnings to make the Derby field. The Nick Zito-trained colt is in the same boat with Court Vision -- he doesn't look fast enough to win the Derby but hopes to get lucky from off the pace like a Giacomo.

In the Illinois Derby, Recapturetheglory pulled off a stunner, leading gate-to-wire from his rail post under E.T. Baird, and the upset puts co-owner and trainer Louie Roussel back in the potential spotlight for this year's Kentucky Derby. Roussel brought a serious contender to the Derby 20 years ago in Risen Star, who is probably Recapturetheglory's namesake, but the dark bay colt could do no better than third following a wide trip. He went on to win the Preakness and Belmont S. (G1) en route to championship honors.

Recapturetheglory entered the Illinois Derby with only a maiden win to his credit, taking a one-mile and 70-yard event by a nose at Hawthorne last November, and it was difficult to envision him getting an uncontested lead on Saturday. But GOLDEN SPIKES (Seeking the Gold) didn't run with him early, settling into a stalking second entering the first turn, and the top-five finishers pretty much held their spot the entire way. Inside speed fared well at Hawthorne on Saturday, and the outcome looks very suspicious. Recapturetheglory got away with soft fractions, allowing Baird to turn for home with plenty of horse underneath him, and he probably won't reproduce this effort at Churchill.

The Illinois Derby proved to be a tremendous disappointment for DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday), who finished fifth as the even-money favorite. Unbeaten in three previous career starts, Denis of Cork distinguished himself as an up-and-coming Kentucky Derby contender with an excellent 2 1/4-length score in the February 18 Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park. Given his lack of foundation, the Rebel S. (G2) and Arkansas Derby made perfect sense for his next starts, and the Arkansas route provided the perfect set-up for the connections of Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Curlin, who accounted for five Triple Crown race wins over the last four years.
Unfortunately for Denis of Cork, the sheet guys (who were consulted for direction) apparently felt they were much smarter than John Servis, Tim Ritchey and Steve Asmussen. They advised a cockeyed approach with only one race over the next 75 days for an unseasoned sophomore, denying Denis of Cork his best chance to win this year's Kentucky Derby. He was one-paced throughout on Saturday and probably didn't get much out of the race. Not only has the strategy likely backfired in terms of readiness, but Denis of Cork could potentially miss the Kentucky Derby with $165,000 in graded earnings (21st currently on the graded earnings list).

Upcoming

PYRO (Pulpit), who established himself as the leading Kentucky Derby contender by virtue of his visually impressive victories in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Risen Star S. (G3), didn't scare away the opposition in Saturday's Blue Grass at Keeneland. Eleven runners will line up to challenge the Asmussen trainee, including Fountain of Youth (G2) winner COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft); Gotham (G3) conqueror VISIONAIRE (Grand Slam); Tampa Bay Derby (G3) hero BIG TRUCK (Hook and Ladder); and the dangerous duo of COWBOY CAL (Giant's Causeway) and MONBA (Maria's Mon) from the Todd Pletcher stable.

Saturday's Arkansas Derby won't feature the same star quality (none of the expected 14 entrants are ranked in the top 20 on the graded earnings list), but it promises to be a good betting race. BLACKBERRY ROAD (Gone West), Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]), GAYEGO (Gilded Time) and LIBERTY BULL (Holy Bull) are among the top contenders in the wide-open event.

Top 10

1) PYRO -- Working well at Keeneland in advance of Blue Grass

2) COLONEL JOHN -- Rolled late to win Santa Anita Derby; classy colt figures to relish added ground in Derby

3) BIG BROWN -- Distance and seasoning are questions, but he's a threat on talent alone

4) ADRIANO -- Impressive Lane's End winner is good enough to challenge if he handles dirt

5) COOL COAL MAN -- Fountain of Youth winner isn't getting much respect; could be live for Zito on Derby Day

6) TALE OF EKATI -- Wood winner didn't finish fast, but he's headed in the right direction for Tagg

7) WAR PASS -- Eligible to improve off Wood; he'll try to shake loose early and would love a wet track

8) VISIONAIRE -- Gotham winner is talented but 1 1/4 miles figures to severely test him

9) COURT VISION -- Two efforts this year are uninspiring; late runner will need to show much more on May 3

10) BIG TRUCK -- Won't be surprised to see another strong showing in Blue Grass