Pool 2

Blackberry Road (30-1) finished an unlucky fifth in the Risen Star (GIII), his most recent start where he found himself 3 ½-lengths behind Pyro at the finish. It wasn’t a bad effort for the half-brother to Vindication, but was decidedly disappointing given the hype he had going into the race. His consistently strong closing kick and his known affinity for the Churchill Downs racing surface make him an eligible contender no matter how you look at it, but at some point he will have to jump up and win a big race. He’ll get another shot to do just that in the Louisiana Derby (GII) at Fair Grounds this Saturday. One might find it wise to hold off until after watching that race for him and all others running in that race.

Bob Black Jack (30-1) is notable in that he set a world record in his last start, burning through six furlongs in 1:06 2/5 over the conveyer belt cushion surface at Santa Anita. While there is no denying his wicked speed and immense talent as a sprinter, one may be reluctant to throw such enthusiastic support behind the notion that he will be able to carry that speed 1 ¼-miles in the Kentucky Derby. He will get his first test going a distance of ground in the San Felipe (GII) slated for March 15 when he will face fellow Cal-bred Georgie Boy, another accomplished sprinter trying to stretch out for the first time. However, he has shown no indication that routing will be his game which makes him a tough investment here at any odds.

Colonel John (12-1) showed tenacity and grit when holding off El Gato Malo to capture his 3-year-old debut in the Sham (GIII). It was quite an impressive effort from the Tiznow colt given that it was his first start in nine weeks and he contested the pace all the way around the oval. The final time may not have been spectacular but the “Bad Cat” wasn’t exactly catching him in the final jumps. He is now widely considered the best sophomore on the west coast and will likely go favored in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 5th. One major consideration to weigh before endorsing him in this pool is his ability to handle a conventional dirt surface as all five of his career starts have come over synthetic racing surfaces. There is nothing to indicate that he will not handle the dirt, given that his sire performed quite well over the surface, but the lack of any preps over dirt going into the Kentucky Derby is mildly troubling.

Cool Coal Man (10-1) is new to Pool 2 after being excluded from the list of individual betting interests in the first pool several weeks ago. He enters here after a win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he bested a field that included Elysium Fields, Court Vision, Z Humor, Anak Nakal and Monba – all highly regarded sophomores pointing towards the Kentucky Derby. The race has been the point of great skepticism; the extremely slow final time was adjusted but the corrected version was still not quite impressive. Something to be said for this one, though, is his 4-for-5 record going two turns. His sire, Mineshaft, was a late bloomers who excelled going a distance of ground. Still, it is worth mentioning that his lone defeat going a distance of ground came at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) at the hands of Anak Nakal and Blackberry Road when he finished last of seven horses. Taking him as the third choice in this pool is tough to imagine but there are quite a few people that think he is more than capable.

Court Vision (12-1) disappointed many in his sophomore debut, finishing third beaten over six lengths by Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields in the Fountain of Youth (GII) at Gulfstream Park. After finishing out his 2-year-old season with back-to-back graded stakes victories in the Iroquois (GIII) and Remsen (GII), Court Vision was widely seen as a top contender for the Kentucky Derby and was expected to put forth a considerably better effort in his return race. Hope is certainly not lost with this colt but he will need to run considerably better in his next race to win back support. His odds are expected to float up from the 12-1 morning line installation and if he starts to wander up towards 20-1 or higher, one might take a flirtatious look and hope he rounds back into form quickly.

Denis of Cork (15-1) comes into the second Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool as an undefeated specimen having put forth a career best effort to capture the Southwest (GIII) by 2 ¼-lengths over a field that included Delta Jackpot (GIII) winner Turf War and highly regarded Riley Tucker. That race made him 3-for-3 in his career and 2-for-2 going a route of ground, with the other win coming in a Fair Grounds allowance race when he defeated this weekend’s Louisiana Derby participant Unbridled Vicar by a head while racing in the slop. He is by the hot young sire Harlan’s Holiday out of an Unbridled mare, which makes increasing distances practically a non-issue. He will try to advance along the Kentucky Derby trail in the Rebel (GII) at Oaklawn Park where he will likely face highly touted sophomore Z Fortune. There is a lot to like with this colt.

El Gato Malo (g) (15-1) tarnished his undefeated record by finishing second in the Sham (GIII) to Colonel John, but one would be hard pressed to call the effort uninspiring. Prior to that race he had won all three of his career starts by a combined margin of 16-lengths, including a 6 ¼-length romp in the San Rafael (GIII) when stopping the clock for the mile distance in an eye-popping 1:33.37 final time. He made up ground in the Sham (GIII) but wasn’t catching the winner late in the race. KentuckyDerby.com blogger Mac McBride has noted, however, that El Gato Malo came out of the race in good order, perhaps better than the race’s victor. The two are set to knock heads again in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 5th. The two lingering concerns about endorsing this one are his ability to handle a distance of ground, considering his miler-type pedigree, and the fact that he has never raced over a conventional dirt surface. There is plenty of upside to this decidedly fast gelding.

Elysium Fields (15-1) put forth a big effort to run second in the Fountain of Youth (GII) after jumping out of maiden special weight company to graded stakes action in one fell swoop. He finished just a half-length behind the FOY winner Cool Coal Man but has been considered by many to have been the best horse in the race, angling off the rail in deep stretch to make a second run at the first-place finisher. Even though it took him four starts to break his maiden, Elysium Fields has been a remarkably consistent runner, hitting the board in all five career starts with all five starts coming against very populated fields. It is enough to make one wonder just which of Barclay Tagg’s runners (the other being Tale of Ekati) is the one to be looking for come the first Saturday in May. A brief glance at his pedigree leads one to believe that turf may be his ultimate home, but he just might be talented enough to compete with the best of his generation on either surface.

Fierce Wind (20-1) continued his ascent up the ladder with a ½-length win in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs over Big Truck. It is safe to say that the race was sub par in terms of competition and that if he continues the path towards the Kentucky Derby the stakes will get much higher. The next logical step for this one would be the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), which puts him on a collision course with undefeated champion War Pass. It seems awfully tough to get behind this colt, especially if his odds hold steady at the 20-1 morning line installment.

Gayego (20-1) is new to the second pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager despite no races between his last start and this new wagering body. He has captured two of three career starts, each start coming at a distance of 6 ½-furlongs or less. There are startling obvious concerns about this one’s ability to get a distance of ground, considering he has never tried to do so and his very sprint oriented pedigree; he is by Gilded Time out of a Lost Code mare. He has displayed exceptional talent in his sprint victories but even the most optimistic handicapper would be hard pressed to make a case for him getting 1 ¼-miles, especially when he switches from synthetic racing surfaces to the conventional dirt track. This one seems like an obvious pass.

Georgie Boy (g) (20-1) put forth an impressive effort to capture his 3-year-old debut in the San Vicente (GII) by 3 ¼-lengths over highly touted sophomores Into Mischief and Massive Drama, the 1st and 3rd place finishers in last year’s CashCall Futurity (GI). The race was all the more impressive when you consider he hadn’t started in over five months. From six career starts he has put together a record of three wins, two seconds and a third place finish. The main concern with this gelding is his ability to handle a distance of ground; his pedigree is very obscure and sprint oriented. However, his come-from-behind style and ability to run fast in the late stages of the came lends credence to his abilities to stay at the top of his game as the distances get longer. He closed at 69-1 in the first wagering pool; it is tough to imagine that happening again but he could float up from his 20-1 morning-line installation. Demand value if planning on betting here.

Giant Moon (20-1) is one of several undefeated sophomores in this second wagering pool. He sports four wins from as many starts, including a resolute victory in the Count Fleet Stakes last time out at Aqueduct. That race marked his first start against open company and proved to be a validating score for the son of Giant’s Causeway. He will get his first true class test this weekend in the Gotham (GIII) where he is slated to face off with Visionaire, Eaton’s Gift, Ling Ling Qi, Roman Emperor, Saratoga Russell and Texas Wildcatter. Hold off on this one until gauging how he runs in the Gotham on Saturday.

J Be K (30-1) is undefeated and untested from two career starts, having never been behind a horse at any point of call. He stopped the clock at Saratoga in a sensational 1:03.13 for 5 ½ furlongs in his debut, winning by 7 ½-lengths in the August 29 race. He wouldn’t resurface until February 15 when he dominated a first level allowance at Fair Grounds going six furlongs. He will get his first distance test in the Louisiana Derby (GII) this weekend going 1 1/16 miles. While it appears he is the lone speed in the race, he has never shown an ability to settle in the early going of any prior races. His pedigree doesn’t necessarily restrict him from stretching out, but this seems like a sharp and sudden extension against the very best members of his crop. Hold off on him until watching the Louisiana Derby (GII).

Majestic Warrior (20-1) makes his long awaited return in this weekend’s Louisiana Derby (GII) at Fair Grounds off a series of good workouts for trainer Bill Mott. He is an extremely well bred son of A.P. Indy out of the top-class mare Dream Supreme and has backed up the flashy pedigree on the racetrack, collecting a Grade One win in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in only his second lifetime start. He tried the Champagne (GI) next out, and the result was a less than flattering sixth place finish and was subsequently put on the shelf. The rest should have done this one well, and a return to his early two-year-old form would put him right in the upper echelon of Kentucky Derby contenders.

Monba (30-1) was quite a disappointment in his 3-year-old debut, finishing 12th and last in the Fountain of Youth (GII) as the 7-2 favorite, beaten nearly 40-lengths by the winner. It has been reported that the grey Maria’s Mon colt flipped his palate during the effort and will return next in either the Lane’s End (GII) at Turfway Park or the Toyota Blue Grass (GI) at Keeneland. His Florida race was a uncharacteristic poor effort and he is decidedly better than he showed on that day. However, that leaves him shy of a top notch effort against top notch company, making him a tough sell in this wagering pool, especially if he hovers around his 30-1 morning line. Demand value if endorsing him here.

Nikki’sgoldensteed (50-1) was an impressive 5 ¾-length winner of the Turf Paradise Derby and thus finds himself a new betting interest in the second pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The California-bred son of Formal Gold took five starts to break his maiden but seems to have found his calling going two turns; his first five starts all came at a distance of 6 ½-furlongs or shorter, including his debut which came at just two furlongs. His next start will come this Saturday in the El Camino Real Derby (GIII) at Bay Meadows, once again going the same 1 1/16-mile distance as the Turf Paradise Derby. He will likely go favored in that race as his most serious challenge will come from Coast Guard, who scratched out of last Saturday’s Sham (GIII) at Santa Anita to run in that spot. Hold your money until watching his performance in that spot.

Pyro (6-1) closed out as the 5-1 second choice of the first wagering pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager just behind the “All Others” field and just ahead of War Pass, who was 6-1. He also currently is perched atop the list of all five professional handicappers displayed at KentuckyDerby.com. His role as the favorite came after he closed from last at the top of the stretch to win the Risen Star (GIII) at Fair Grounds by two-lengths over Z Humor. It was the first victory since his debut score at Churchill Downs, as the three races in between those efforts found him soundly defeated by undefeated champion War Pass on each occasion. His closing kick is impressive to watch and will likely be on display once again this weekend in the Louisiana Derby (GII) at Fair Grounds when he faces the likes of Tale of Ekati, Majestic Warrior, Blackberry Road, and his stablemate J Be K, who figures to be a rabbit for Pyro throughout the Kentucky Derby trail. One must remember, though, that navigating your way past ten rivals at Fair Grounds in a Grade 3 race is much different than navigating your way past 19 rivals in the Kentucky Derby. Watch how he runs in the Louisiana Derby before financially endorsing him in this pool.

Smooth Air (50-1) finished a respectable third in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in his most recent start, but he seemed tired at the end of the race. He was the impressive winner of the Hutcheson (GII) at Gulfstream Park going seven furlongs two back but had never gone a route of ground before his last race. His pedigree suggests that two-turns may not be his best game, and he seemed to validate that suggestion when he was out-finished by the likes of Fierce Wind and Big Truck. He may continue on the Kentucky Derby trail in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), but that means he will have to tussle with the likes of War Pass and that just doesn’t seem like a winning proposition for any sophomore. We’ll have to pass on this one.

Tale of Ekati (30-1) is another runner who was put away for the winter after being beaten by open lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Barclay Tagg runner was top-class before that sub-par effort and possibly just didn’t handle the monsoon like conditions at Monmouth Park that day. An impressive winner of the Belmont Futurity (GII) in September of his two-year-old year, Tale of Ekati has been working steadily for his three-year-old debut, which will come this weekend in the Louisiana Derby (GII) at Fair Grounds. Tagg is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby trail, winning with Funny Cide in 2003 and bringing a top contender last year in Nobiz Like Shobiz. This one will be fresh and ready and figures to be right in the mix if he can return to form. Distance questions could arise; this son of Tale of the Cat has never been past 7 furlongs besides his uninspiring Breeders’ Cup effort. Hold off on him until the Louisiana Derby has been run.

Visionaire (30-1) is new to this second pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager after finishing a good third in the Risen Star (GIII) behind highly touted sophomores Pyro and Z Fortune. He ran evenly throughout the race and looked like a winner until Pyro mowed down the field with his late kick. Instead of wheeling back in the local Louisiana Derby (GII) he opts to ship north to New York to run in the Gotham (GIII) at Aqueduct against a decidedly softer field of horses. He has shown a considerable amount of talent throughout his career, besting Louisiana Derby participant Stevil two back by 5 ½-lengths, and defeating Fountain of Youth (GII) runner-up Elysium Fields three back while breaking his maiden by 2 ¾-lengths. He shows a couple good works in advance of the Gotham and should go off favored in that race, but it would be a good idea to hold off from betting him in this pool until watching that race on Saturday.

War Pass (5-1) made a remarkable return to the races in his 3-year-old bow two weeks ago when effortlessly taking an allowance race on the Fountain of Youth undercard by 7 ½-lengths as the 1-20 favorite. He has now won all five career starts by a combined 22-lengths, including a pair of Grade 1 wins and nearly $1.5 million. He has never been content to settle in the early going, which seems to be the biggest concern lingering around this one. He has never been behind a horse at any point in his five race career and has lost lengths to Pyro late in the game on two different occasions. The gravity of the situation has become even more apparent with the emergence of J Be K, another Asmussen trainee and a stablemate of Pyro who could be a rabbit for Pyro and thus become War Pass’s undoing. We’ll learn more about War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial, but his low odds make him tough to endorse when there are serious distance concerns abounding.

Yankee Bravo (30-1) brings his undefeated record in this weekend’s Louisiana Derby (GII). He was most recently seen winning the California Derby in last-to-first style over the synthetic racing surface at Golden Gate Fields. He beat a fairly uninspiring field in that race but seemed to impress a good amount of people with the way he won. He will be amongst quite a few closers in the Louisiana Derby, a race that seems to have one clear frontrunner and is filled out by closers. The Louisiana Derby will also be his first start over a conventional dirt track after wins on the turf course and synthetic strip. Wait and see how he handles top notch company and dirt racing in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday before endorsing him at the windows.

Z Fortune (20-1) suffered his first career defeat at the hands of Pyro in the Risen Star (GIII) at Fair Grounds last time out. He had no chance to response to the devastating kick by his stablemate in that race and ran a very respectable race to be second. He shifts gears away from Pyro for his next start, slated to be the Rebel (GII) at Oaklawn Park where he will likely meet undefeated Denis of Cork. If you are still a believer in this horse after his last race, his opening odds of 20-1 might seem like a good catch. One might demand a little more value before picking him as the winner of the Kentucky Derby in May.

All Others (8-1)