Pool 3

#1 - Adriano (20-1) enters the third and final future wager pool off a big win in the Lane’s End (GII) at Turfway Park. He certainly looked like a world beater on that day, but the key to that victory may have been the surface the race was run over. Adriano has been a different animal on the turf course and Polytrack, over which his most recent race was run, but put forth the worst performance of his career when racing over a conventional dirt surface. His connections have even acknowledged that he seems to be more of a turf and synthetic type. Still, the Fountain of Youth can be considered a throw out race for a litany of reasons, and his connections are, like everyone involved in the game, not immune to Derby Fever. He could very well show up in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May and will have his share of support off that last effort. You will have to make the call about what price you are willing to accept.

#2 - Atoned (30-1) put forth a big comeback effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), finishing a game second to Big Truck. The effort was largely overshadowed by the abysmal performance of race favorite War Pass. Nothing should be taken away from Atoned, however, as he was making his seasonal bow and showed tenacity and grit when confronted by eventual race winner Big Truck in deep stretch. It is worth noting that Atoned has beaten Big Truck as a 2-year-old and has much more room for improvement off that effort than does his victorious foe. He resurfaces this weekend in the Illinois Derby (GII) where he will likely go off as the second choice behind undefeated Denis of Cork. He seems to be Todd Pletcher’s top hope in the Kentucky Derby this year and is not a bad sophomore to be backing in this future wager pool.

#3 - Big Brown (3-1) burst onto the scene with a hugely impressive win in the Florida Derby (GI) in just his third lifetime start. He is undefeated and untested from those three starts, taking his stakes debut ion the Florida Derby with ease despite breaking from the daunting twelve hole. Big Brown could be any kind, and has many comparing him to last year’s Horse of the Year Curlin. He will start in the Kentucky Derby with just three prior outings, a task that eluded even Curlin, who finished third in last year’s Kentucky Derby. Big Brown has daunting speed and enviable stamina, but the Kentucky Derby will prove to be the toughest test of his young career. He is likely to vie for favoritism in this wagering pool with the more seasoned and experienced Pyro.

#4 - Big Truck (20-1) won the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) to stamp himself as a serious Kentucky Derby contender. He now has over $100,000 in graded earnings, considered the threshold for participation in the Kentucky Derby. He defeated a gritty Atoned in that effort, running that rival down in the stretch to prove dominant on the day. This New York bred is considered by many to be a cut below the best but he has proven to be a formidable foe on the Kentucky Derby trail up until this point. This only dull race of his career came sprinting against graded competition. Despite his speed oriented pedigree he seems to excel as distances get longer, perhaps drawing on the stamina influence of the bottom half of his pedigree. He seems likely to offer value in this wagering pool. He will likely resurface next week in the Holy Bull (GIII), but could also go straight to the Kentucky Derby.

#5 - Blackberry Road (50-1) seems to have not lived up to his billing as a sophomore, running three consecutive "iffy" races in a row. By no means were his last three races bad efforts, as he earned a check in three graded stakes races in succession, but his big closing kick that he showed as a 2-year-old has been missing in action this year. This half-brother to Vindication has shown the ability to jump up and run a big race and you would have to guess that his connections are hoping for such a race in his final prep before the Kentucky Derby; Blackberry Road seems likely to show up in the Arkansas Derby (GII) against a less than stellar group of horses. He will surely benefit from avoiding Pyro and could stamp himself as a leading contender for the Run for the Roses with a big effort in that race. Nevertheless, he will offer significant value in this pool and seems likely to start in the Kentucky Derby regardless of his performance next out.

#6 - Bob Black Jack (30-1) turned a lot of heads with an impressive performance in the San Felipe (GII), proving that he can negotiate a distance of ground with success against top notch competition. His world record showing at 6-furlongs apparently was no indication of distance limitations as he held well to finish third in his last race going 1 1/16-miles. His pedigree certainly suggests he should be able to handle any given distance of ground. He will get another chance to show his chops in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) against the likes of Colonel John, El Gato Malo and Yankee Bravo. He will likely be out on the front end and could prove tough to run down. However, if he goes in the Kentucky Derby he may well have to tussle with Big Brown and War Pass through furious fractions in a race that would also be his first start on the main track. He seems dicey at best in this wagering pool.

#7 - Colonel John (12-1) showed tenacity and grit when holding off El Gato Malo to capture his 3-year-old debut in the Sham (GIII). It was quite an impressive effort from the Tiznow colt given that it was his first start in nine weeks and he contested the pace all the way around the oval. The final time may not have been spectacular, but the “Bad Cat” wasn’t exactly catching him in the final jumps. He is now widely considered the best sophomore on the west coast and will likely go favored in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 5th. One major consideration to weigh before endorsing him in this pool is his ability to handle a conventional dirt surface, considering that all five of his career starts have come over synthetic racing surfaces. There is nothing to indicate that he will not handle the dirt, given that his sire performed quite well over the surface, but the lack of any preps over dirt going into the Kentucky Derby is mildly troubling. See how he handles his foes in the Santa Anita Derby before endorsing.

#8 - Cool Coal Man (15-1) has not raced since his breakout performance in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he bested a field that included Elysium Fields, Court Vision, Z Humor, Anak Nakal and Monba – all highly regarded sophomores pointing towards the Kentucky Derby. The race has been the point of great skepticism; the extremely slow final time was adjusted, but the corrected version was still not eye catching. Something to be said for this one, though, is his 4-for-5 record going two turns. His sire, Mineshaft, was a late bloomer who excelled going a distance of ground. Still, it is worth mentioning that his lone defeat going a distance of ground came at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) at the hands of Anak Nakal and Blackberry Road when he finished last of seven horses. We won’t see him again until he takes on Pyro and Visionaire in the Toyota Blue Grass (GI) at Keeneland next week.

#9 - Court Vision (20-1) disappointed many in his sophomore debut, finishing third beaten over six lengths by Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields in the Fountain of Youth (GII) at Gulfstream Park. That effort was further tarnished with poor follow-up performances by several horses coming out of that race. After finishing out his 2-year-old season with back-to-back graded stakes victories in the Iroquois (GIII) and Remsen (GII), Court Vision was widely seen as a top contender for the Kentucky Derby and was expected to put forth a considerably better effort in his return race. Hope is certainly not lost with this colt but he will need to run considerably better in his next race to win back support. He is set to break from the gate in the Wood Memorial (GI) and it is worth holding off supporting this colt until seeing what form he is in.

#10 - Denis of Cork (15-1) comes into the third Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool as an undefeated specimen having put forth a career best effort to capture the Southwest (GIII) by 2 ¼-lengths over a field that included Delta Jackpot (GIII) winner Turf War and highly regarded Riley Tucker. That race made him 3-for-3 in his career and 2-for-2 going a route of ground. He skipped the Rebel (GII), a race that saw Sierra Sunset win with aplomb; this is significant since Denis of Cork defeated that rival in the Southwest. He makes his next start in the Illinois Derby (GII) and will start in that race as the favorite against a sub par field. Keep in mind that even in a best case scenario he will enter the Kentucky Derby with just four lifetime starts.

#11 - El Gato Malo (g) (12-1) tarnished his undefeated record by finishing second in the Sham (GIII) to Colonel John, but one would be hard pressed to call the effort uninspiring. Prior to that race he had won all three of his career starts by a combined margin of 16-lengths, including a 6 ¼-length romp in the San Rafael (GIII) when stopping the clock for the mile distance in an eye-popping 1:33.37 final time. He made up ground in the Sham (GIII) but wasn’t catching the winner late in the race. KentuckyDerby.com blogger Mac McBride has noted, however, that El Gato Malo came out of the race in good order, perhaps better than the race’s victor. The two are set to knock heads again in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) on April 5th. The two lingering concerns about endorsing this one are his ability to handle a distance of ground, considering his miler-type pedigree, and the fact that he has never raced over a conventional dirt surface. There is plenty of upside to this decidedly fast gelding.

#12 - Gayego (30-1) ran better than expected when finishing second in the San Felipe (GII), beaten just ¾-length by Georgie Boy. That was his first start going a route of ground and he certainly seemed interested in the final stages, just getting outkicked by his rival. That was his first start off the layoff and he figures to improve off that effort in his next outing. Should he go into the Kentucky Derby, he will do so as a fresh horse under the care of a trainer that knows how to win on the First weekend of May at Churchill Downs, having won the Kentucky Oaks with lightly raced Farda Amiga. Gayego will resurface in the Santa Anita Derby this weekend and merits a strong upset chance in that race. His odds are unlikely to float as high as they did in the second wagering pool as his stock seems to be on the rise.

#13 - Liberty Bull (50-1) was quite impressive winning the WinStar Derby by an expanding two-lengths. His Achilles heel in this wagering pool may be his lack of graded earnings. While the WinStar Derby offered a $600,000 kitty, it was an ungraded event and will not help him pry his way into the starting gate in Louisville. He has proven to be a consistent animal, placing in each of his six lifetime starts, including a third place finish behind Denis of Cork and Sierra Sunset in the Southwest (GIII). He seems just a cut below the best of this crop having never been given the opportunity to knock heads to the top of the division, but this crop seems to be a cut below the standard in and of itself. It would be wise to demand serious value if considering a wager on this one.

#14 - My Pal Charlie (50-1) turned heads at 60-1 in the Louisiana Derby (GII) by holding on to finish second to Kentucky Derby co-favorite Pyro. He defeated an accomplished cast of horses that day in what was his stakes debut. He was allowed to set a leisurely pace in that event, a luxury he almost certainly will not be allowed once again either in his final prep for the big race or in the Kentucky Derby itself. It is noteworthy that his brother Bwana Bull participated in last year’s Kentucky Derby and was a remarkable sophomore himself, so the Kentucky Derby genes are there. He is an interesting longshot for those looking to buck the favorites in this pool.

#15 - Pyro (4-1) figures to contend for favoritism in this wagering pool coming off dominant wins in both the Risen Star (GIII) and Louisiana Derby (GII). Some continue to wonder if this charge is fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby due to his slow final times in his most recent outings. He has been untouchable as a 3-year-old and figures to go off as a heavy favorite in the Blue Grass (GI) next time out at Keeneland. Steve Asmussen has to be feeling fairly confident with this colt four weeks before the Kentucky Derby as will many bettors who figure to endorse him at the windows this weekend. One thing to consider with this one is the price you will get on him in this wagering pool versus the price you will get on him in the starting gate on Kentucky Derby day. If you figure there will not be a significant difference, it might be worth waiting four weeks to financially support him.

#16 - Salute the Sarge (50-1) pops up on the Kentucky Derby trail quite unexpectedly after taking the San Miguel Stakes, a six furlong dash over the cushion surface at Santa Anita. This charge put his best foot forward while sprinting last year, finishing second to Georgie Boy in the Del Mar Futurity (GI). To his credit, he did put forth a good effort while running second in the Best Pal (GI) going two turns, but ran abysmally in the B.C. Juvenile, finishing ninth beaten over 33-lengths. That race can be tossed for a variety of reasons, but the distance concerns linger with his sprint-oriented pedigree. He also seems rushed into this role and will have yet another start before the first Saturday of May, pegged to start in the Lexington (GII) two weeks before being asked to run in the toughest and deepest race he will ever encounter.

#17 - Smooth Air (50-1) gave a good account of himself in the Florida Derby (GI), quite a better performance than was expected of him given his speed oriented pedigree and a significant step up in class. He was the only colt making up ground on Big Brown in the late stages of the race, a significant accomplishment given the accolades being bestowed upon the race’s victor. In retrospect, Smooth Air has been a remarkably consistent animal, finishing in the money in all seven career starts with now two big efforts going a distance of ground. With no start between now and the Derby you will be asked to judge him with nearly as much information as you will get before the Kentucky Derby. There is certainly a lot to like with him.

#18 - Tale of Ekati (30-1) failed to dazzle in his comeback performance in the Louisiana Derby (GII), finishing sixth behind Pyro, My Pal Charlie, Yankee Bravo and Blackberry Road – four other sophomores included in this wagering pool. That race came on the heels of a dismal fourth place finish to close out his two-year-old season in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he was beaten over 17-lengths by War Pass and Pyro, finishing behind even certified sprinter Kodiak Kowboy in the effort. He will get another try in the Wood Memorial (GI) and it would be wise to hold all wagering until we see how he does in that effort.

#19 - Tomcito (30-1) answered a lot of questions when he finished third in the Florida Derby (GI), but perhaps not quite as resoundingly as one might have hoped. He did earn an American Grade 1 placing with the effort, thereby validating the Peruvian wonder horse as a significant 3-year-old despite the continent. However, he still was beaten over a dozen lengths by Big Brown, a colt making his stakes debut and just third lifetime start. His connections have committed their charge to the Kentucky Derby and he seems to have the graded earnings to get in. You will have to ask yourself how he makes up those additional twelve (or more) lengths to tango with the top 3-year-olds – but maybe he will improve in his second domestic trip around the oval? Your call.

#20 - Visionaire (20-1) put together what surely would have been a visually impressive effort in the Gotham (GIII), had it not been for the fog that hid the entire race except for the final sixteenth of a mile. What we were blessed to see was quite impressive as he reeled in Texas Wildcatter in the final jumps with a dazzling turn of foot. He will now face off with Pyro once again in the Blue Grass (GI) in his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. The race will be his first over Polytrack and perhaps not a true test of his abilities. He is proven over the dirt and clearly is an improving specimen.

#21 - War Pass (6-1) faltered badly in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII). To take him in this pool at 6-1 would mean you are willing to completely throw out his last race and all of its implications. He was an imposing force as a juvenile and even in his comeback race, but his last was such an abysmally poor effort that one has to worry. He will get one last chance to redeem himself in the Wood Memorial (GI) and you would be wise to hold off financially endorsing him until watching exactly how he handles his first start back since that defeat. Even a big win would have 6-1 sounding a little salty.

#22 - Yankee Bravo (30-1) proved himself to be a formidable animal on any surface when finishing third in the Louisiana Derby (GII) and now will fall back to the synthetic surface of Santa Anita’s cushion track in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) for his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. A good effort in that race is imperative as he will need the graded earnings to make the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. With lots of speed in the race he seems poised for a big effort, and seems like a logical longshot to back for the Kentucky Derby off his recent form. Watch his odds and performance on Saturday to determine whether or not to back in this pool.

#23 - Z Fortune (50-1) finished fifth in the Rebel (GII), a shockingly poor effort as the 3-5 favorite in the race. No valid excuse was given for the poor performance and he will get a shot to make amends in his final prep before the Kentucky Derby. His conditioner seems to still have confidence in his colt, but much of the public is off the bandwagon. It is interesting to note that Afleet Alex also had an inexplicably poor effort in Arkansas before turning around to win the Arkansas Derby before taking two of the three legs in the Triple Crown; however, it is also important to note that the race he did not win was the Kentucky Derby. Your call.

#24f - All others (15-1)