A Shocker

It’s time for a confession. When I saw that a horse was flying up the rail and was about to deny Pioneerof The Nile the Derby win that I predicted would be his, at first I had no idea who the horse was. It was clear the horse wore saddle towel #8. That was all I could tell you until I heard Tom Durkin identify the soon-to-be-winner as Mine That Bird with about 100 yards to go. Of the hundreds and hundreds of people who had gathered in the race and sports book at Luxor in Las Vegas, only a small group of three young women were celebrating. And their celebration didn’t start until the horse was galloping out and was well past the finish line. It was pretty clear almost no one had the winner.

And it was pretty clear I had failed to pick the Derby winner for the 9th year in a row, and had picked the runner-up for the 4th time in that span.

What can you say? It seems that a series of circumstances all came together for Mine That Bird on the right day in the right race. Maybe he just loved the slop. Maybe he’s better than we thought. Maybe he was the only one of 19 who ran. Maybe it’s all of the above. Who knows? Is it possible that a light went on for this horse, and now he’s a threat to make a run at the Triple Crown? Hey, we’ve all seen horses take big steps up before. Perhaps this was no fluke. Even if he just loved the mud, that move he made was electrifying. It’s hard to say he would NOT have been able to do that on a fast track.

Papa Clem and Musket Man ran nice races. Pioneerof The Nile beat them, and in my opinion demonstrated that he is a capable horse on dirt. I feel like I was right to dismiss Dunkirk. Friesan Fire had trouble, and will hopefully return soon. The Godolphin horses just were not good enough. Chocolate Candy ran his race. All in all, I don’t think I have much to add to the discussion. On a personal level, I am bummed out that my pick ran a gutsy second to a 50-1 shot who seems to have freaked. But I feel a slight amount of vindication I guess. And at the same time, we have to wonder what Quality Road, I Want Revenge, The Pamplemousse, and Old Fashioned would have done had they been able to make the race.

Speaking of I Want Revenge, you have to feel for the connections, especially David Lanzman. I mean, how awful must it be to get your horse all they way through the winter and spring, watch him earn the role of favorite, and then watch him get hurt the morning of the race? It must be like walking through a minefield for four months, getting a few steps from safety, and then stepping on the wrong spot. I met Team I Want Revenge during Derby Week, and I really enjoyed my time with them. It made the scratch all the more upsetting. The Derby is the biggest thing in racing. It’s what every owner dreams about. I wish they could have experienced it.

I experienced the Derby away from Churchill Downs for the first time since 1999. My friends and I watched all the action from Luxor in Las Vegas. If there was any doubt as to the Derby’s importance as a sporting event, there isn’t anymore. The mood at Luxor was downright electric. The entire casino came to a stop moments before the race. Race and Sports Book manager Jeff Hoose really caters to racing fans and horse players alike. It was an awesome place to watch the Derby. If you’re ever on the Vegas strip and you like to play horses, Luxor is your spot. I’ve played the horses at a number of different venues, and I’ve never had such a good time away from live racing. My friends, who are not horse players, had a blast. They’re already talking about next year’s Derby. And Jeff, thanks for the Mint Juleps.

I thought that being in Luxor might have been an omen of some sort. After all, it’s shaped like the Great Pyramid and has a pronounced Ancient Egyptian theme. And with my top pick being named Pioneerof The Nile, I felt like maybe the stars were aligning. But it was not to be. Also, none of you noticed that the headline of my last blog entry before the Derby, “One Line For The Pie”, spells “Pioneerof The Nile” if you rearrange the letters. I was sure one of you would catch that.

Ladies and gentlemen, I have thoroughly enjoyed maintaining this blog for Derby 135. It is so much fun reading all of your comments and watching the discussion evolve. Thanks so much for playing a part. Good luck to all of you. Enjoy the rest of the Triple Crown. May all of your wagers be winning ones.

For myself, Superfan Meredith, Yoda The Handicapping Wonderpug, and everyone at Churchill Downs, thanks for reading.

------------------------------

Don’t forget to join our home away from home on Facebook by searching for the group “Derby Bloggers” so that you can stay a part of the conversation all year long.

And follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/justindew.

Print this page  //  Share this story

100 Responses to "A Shocker"

DannyD

05/04 11:11 am

Justin,

A shocker indeed. I made the trip to Louisville for my first derby and what an awesome experience. I'm Canadian and Woodbine is my home track but I couldn't bet Mine that Bird if I found money on the ground. The only angle I can see is he was lower odds than POTN in the BC Juvenile and finished last but had a wide trip and was beaten less than 10 lengths. Also, making third start of form cycle and huge jockey switch to Borel but still at best i figured he finish about 10th with a dream trip not win pulling away are uu kidding me. The trainer is a 3% trainer, Best BSF was 81 and the dosage index is through the roof and the horses he beat at Woodbine are still racing allowance and Maiden special weight company. Bear's Conductor couldn't win an allowance race at Gulfstream a few months back. There is just no way you can come up with this horse, only way I cash is if I bet him as a joke being from my hometown of Toronto. The Derby Experience was amazing and I hope I'm lucky enough to visit this historic track again on a nice sunny day with a fast track in the bleachers as I'm all partied out from the infield and still can't believe the result of this race. Best thing about the weekend was Rachel Alexandra, what a freakin machine!

gmj828

05/04 11:33 am

"Too slow to be a factor"

reszkak

05/04 11:34 am

Justin,
Thanks for the analysis over the course of the spring.
I landed up going with Hold me Back. I think KD moved this horse way too soon and had nothing left for the stretch. But I got really excited watching him come up the rail the way he did.
I also had several bets on Summer Bird. Loved the way he was improving with every race and always liked Birdstone. Looks like I should have played all the Birdstone babies.
Same experience at Trackside. Can't hear the call and everyone was reaching for the forum when they saw "8."
Had a decent day overall, hitting 4 Tri's. Unfortunately, I rolled it all over to the Derby.

phil_cayla

05/04 12:11 pm

Mr. Hot Stuff and Papa Clem were acting up during the post parade, and I jokingly said FF could have some problems at the break. Turns out the break is what ruined his chances. Grabbed quarter or not, he would have had a rough go of it after a wall of horses formed in front of him. About an hour to post I was looking over some of the horses that I gave no chance, and remarked how overmatched MTB was. Who'd of thought? Despite the bitter trainer, I will root for him in the Preakness, and if he runs nearly as good as he did Sat. then he has a good chance to win.

sandbagger12

05/04 12:33 pm

Justin:
Thoroughly enjoyed reasing your blog this Spring. It was wonderfully written and always insightful. Thanks.

The chatter has already begun that Mine That Bird may have been a fluke. But similar to your analysis, everything came together for this Derby Winner; not the least of which the best rail rider in the country, Calvin Borel. But please consider a couple of other things.....
1) Horse was in the third race of his cycle which is usually where they are in peak condition.
2) Trained down at Sunland in New Mexico. Higher altitude. (Human runners train at higher altitudes, then look forward to a race at sea level), are Horses any different? Could have been a factor.
3) As stated above, the best rail rider in the country.
4) Track conditions. The old "mud in your eye" changed a few racing strategies, I'm sure.

Personally, I had a POTN / DP Exacta and W/P/S wagers on Desert Party and Chocolate Candy. What a strike-out.

Here is an interesting thought though, if on a whim, you thought of a New Mexico tied wager, you could have had a Pioneer of the Nile / Mine That Bird Exacta. New Mexico based and connections of MTB with POTN whose rider, Tucson, AZ born, Garret Gomez who started his career at the old Santa Fe Downs. LOL.

Thanks again for the terrific blog.
Good luck on the many fantastic races coming up this year and leading up to the Breeders Cup!!!

Cdpotato4

05/04 12:33 pm

Funny thing is I went to Sunland Park in November. I was visiting my brother in El Paso for Thanksgiving. He was stationed there for the Army and has since been relocated.

I never would have gone to that track, and to go there just months ago, is hillarious to me.

I also put a picture of ZSunland on my twitter background just last week. haha. wow.

poniez69

05/04 12:54 pm

FRB- Congrats on RA's win. She ran a super race. On 8/28/2004 I was standing at the finish line and it the sky was just an unnatural color purple black yellow almost like a black eye...the clouds had moved in after a humid day at the Spa where we saw Silver Train break his maiden and Silver Tree win the Bernard Baruch and Pomeroy fly home in the Kings Bishop...not a bad day of racing but as it often does in late August at the Spa the day turned foul in a hurry in fact the clouds rolled in so quick it looked like a tornado was going to hit Saratoga Race Course...and as they finished the 135th Travers in 2:02 2/5 the gritty Belmont winner pulled away decisively for another Grade 1 win Birdstone son of Grindstone Grandson of Unbridled had won the Travers on a wet gooey almost playdough like track....as I watched the race unfold on Saturday over an almost identical surface and listened to Durkin say an "Impossible result" I could not believe my eyes....I thought how is this horse 50-1 he should be 150-1 and I harkened back to Travers day in 2004 and thought about those dark purple clouds rolling in and realized then that this just embodied the meaning of a true "mudder"...just like his daddy he loved the mud...no rational explanation other than that...he is just a flat out mudder...

trifectakid86

05/04 12:57 pm

A shocker it was... my only winning ticket came in a pick 3 i singled the 9th and 10th then i had all in the 11... Thanks to everyone on another exciting year.... this is definitly the #1 horse racing blog on the internet.... if anyone attends monmouthpark i'm there 90% of the summer....you can find me on the second floor when races are going off or around the paddok area... i will be handicapping most of the summer @ monmouthpark you can follow me on twitter as i will post live from the track daily for up to the minute analysis or if your at monmouth park just let me know... my twitter is miket86 .... hey justin i've asked you this before but i couldn't find your answer will you attend monmouth park this year? well thanks again justin,barry,law,astra,mikie,slew, cdpotato,oliver,jazzy and whomever i forgot i owe all you guys a beer for all the usefull information well i guess on to facebook.....
Commish - we definitly need a permanent home.... g/f doesn't believe i'm on facebook to talk about horses
once again thanks everyone hope to hear some winning picks soon.

-Mike-

GQHA2TROT

05/04 1:39 pm

Can anyone tell me WHEN was Mine That Bird gelded? Cuz I have a HUGE bone to pick with Brisnet!

Saturday night I heard somebody on TV say “gelding” and I thought, I don’t remember seeing that?! I went back and looked at my Brisnet PP's and sure enough he’s listed as a colt. Yet, the DRF PP's had it correct.

So when was he gelded?! If it was between the Derby and his last race… then I’ll REALLY be pissed. That’s an angle I always jump on, especially when the horses form is speed and he quits.

The INQUIRY sign has been posted which may DISDQUALIFY Brisnet from being my Go To PP's!

jeffgalyen

05/04 4:47 pm

Mine That Bird was not the worst horse on paper in this derby - he was the worst horse on paper in the last 10 derby's. His beyer improvement is equivalent to about 16 lengths. I'm sick of hearing the reasons he won. Borel made him 16 lengths better? Is that why Borel won 2 of his first 25 mounts at Churchill? I love Borel, but noone's that good. The slop moved him up 16 lengths? That was some kind of special slop that caused one horse to improve 16 lengths while 18 other horses ran worse than there last race. Was it the fractions? The fractions were reasonable compared to Giacomo's improbable result & Street Sense's last-to-first rally.

I watched a $50,000 3-year-old stake at Prairie Meadows on Saturday. 5 OF THE 9 HORSES ENTERED HAD BEYERS EQUAL TO OR HIGHER THAN MINE THAT BIRD.

IMO, there is only one explanation for what happened on Saturday. I hope that reason doesn't come out for the good of the sport, or I hope I'm wrong.

That said, congrats to JD & others who handicapped well. I was adamantly against Pioneer of the Nile for a month, but feel he would've been a factor no matter the surface. Nice pick. I used Papa Clem sparingly, but feel his toughness showed with not the best of trips. I loved Musket Man, in the 2,3,4 slots, but failed to cash a ticket.

paul3249

05/04 5:59 pm

An open mind means that, yes, it is conceivable that Mine That Bird was on something. But, an open mind also means that freakish improvement is possible. When I was in high school, as a freshman, I landed the last spot on the varsity track team because I was okay at running the mile. At league prelims, I was ranked 31 out of 33 runners and only the top 12 runners would go to league finals, an imPOSSible task. AND YET, without using performance enhancing drugs, I ran 21 seconds faster in the mile at league prelims and made it to league finals as only freshman. A 21 second improvement in a mile race!!! You think a horse can't improve one second in a mile and a quarter race??? It is rare, yes, but these are three year olds!! In this wide, big world, very few things are truly imPOSSible.

answer23

05/04 6:00 pm

final JEOPARDY...year 2023

category: TC classic take's

"no one knows your horse or you"

contestant replies "who is WOOLey?"

can you be more specific?

YA KNOW ME NOW DAMMIT!

paul3249

05/04 6:11 pm

Oh, and, yes MIne That Bird could have been gotten. There is a school of thought called Weird Handicapping which says that if there is something fundamentally wrong with the race, be it horrible mud, hard rain, or lighting, or some other bad situation, and the race still goes forward--one school of thought says choose the loser horses because at least you are getting great odds during a race that has been thrown into question. If you saw, General Quarters owner/trainer's reaction after the race, he was upset. His colt took on a lot of mud and his jockey, Leparoux said he got stalled in it. Horses came out with cuts from collisions and bumping. It was the perfect day for Weird Handicapping. That is why giggling girls who chose their horses based on funny and cute names were cashing tickets and the rest of us were not!!

answer23

05/04 6:13 pm

i think after riding in a 62 studebaker... el primer grey... with twice pipes...lowered to the ground.. and may pop tire's van for 21+ hours..you would {BIRD} run just to get COACH ticket's back to NM..jmo

bostongal

05/04 6:39 pm

Justin and fellow bloggers - thanks for great insight during this derby season - I lurked more than I posted, but I learned a lot, and picked up some new betting strategies...

I was at Churchill for Rachel Alexandra's amazing run - glad I had a future on her - running to the betting windows about 10 minutes to post to rework some bets on the fly after finding out that Justwhistledixie scratched - made it in the nick of time - what a great day!

I was at Keeneland for Derby - sad to find out I Want Revenge scratched that morning - I've liked him since February...but I still liked POTN, too! Too bad that was my Future Exacta. Happy I hit on Einstein/Cowboy Cal - just missed the super thanks to Zambezi Sun...(who I put in my Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3, and then later wondered what was I thinking)...

Watching the Derby in breathless anticipation - changed my main bet to General Quarters - had a little on POTN - threw a couple down on RR...just in case, you know. My sister (the infamous Stacey-Jo) and I had been saying the last week or so that this could be a Giacomo year so $2 here and there on some of the longer shots...NEVER gave Mine That Bird a look! My brother-in-law even noted that Birdstone had come out of nowhere to steal the Belmont and then bet accordingly on the WRONG Birdstone horse (at least he has bragging rights for getting MusketMan in there, too).

Great Derby prep season - great day...now it's just 363 days 'til next year. Think Derby thoughts, y'all!

answer23

05/04 7:17 pm

the "GAME"...

econo"ME" down..

racing Industry...TC +BC = P A Y D A Y !

bo-"RAIL" + i pull the" WOOL"ey over your eye's +the "BIRD!!"

get the PICTURE..

it's in" the GAME!"

michaelhaircut

05/04 7:42 pm

Just say No to mine that bird being on drugs. Nobody claimed drugs for Big Brown coming out of the twenty hole and winning but yet when he stopped his daily vitamins he runs dead last!

jazzybrick

05/04 7:51 pm

Guys and Girls,

It's been a great season. I like some others have learned a lot from our time throughout the winter and spring up until the derby. Or I should say, learned "a little more" what I don't know about handicapping. Sure made the cold winter months bearable when you could discuss the weekly races with interested horse people like yourself. This is my third or forth year following the blog, although this year I choose to participate a little more.

I wish all much luck with what ever endeavors you choose to embrace over the course of the next year. Plus, much luck on the Preakness and Belmont and the great races yet to come.

Suffice it to say, I was aghast that Mine that Bird won the race. Every year I try to imagine, who's coming from left field that could win the race? Like some, Mine that Bird was the first horse I threw out of my picks. Until next year, we have a chance to see when one of our favorites show up in races throughout the country and can pick a winner without even consulting the program. That's always nice.

Hopefully, we'll meet again on facebook for more intriguing action.

Trifecta, one day I'll take you up on that beer!

Best of luck to all and a major thank you to Justin for bringing together some of the best handicappers and horse lovers in the States.

usscone

05/04 7:54 pm

Justin, Just a note to thank you for a great year. To all the bloggers you are the best. It made a long winter in the cold north a warm place to be.

This site even when problems did arise is still in its infancy we are pioneers with this technology. My first Derby was 1965 and I can tell you it's a ton easier now than it was back then.

I want to mention several of my favorites bloggers I hope you made some cash on the first Sat. in May.

Cd,Jazzy,Astra,Barry,Law 1707,Slew Stable,Calvin (who gave me a lesson on Mr. Prospector and Mind That Bird had some Mr. Prospector) Oliveroliver,Great Communcator and firerickbarnes who the heck is rick barnes anyway. And last but not least HollyKing I just know you thought about me when Musket Man showed. Take care and may God Bless you and all your familys.

With Great Respect,
Bill Raucci
USS Cone DD-866
1970-1972
Gulf of Tonkin

plum creek stable

05/04 8:00 pm

Until I see a positive test, I'll give the hoss the benefit of the doubt because I think it can be explained with a little Monday morning quarterbacking. MTB rode the rail all the way around and it was the place to be for the Derby. Secondly, that was the absolute best trip ride I can remember (and I can remember quite a few). Calvin did a GREAT job - Hall of Fame stuff. Two of the best, Dunkirk and IWR, never got in the gate and two of the remaining top contenders, Friesan Fire and Dunkirk, never got out of the gate. Oh - and the wet stuff too.

The horse was also the calmest out there. Shoot, I thought it was because he might have thought he had been entered in a New Mexico state bred race and didn't know he was about to get smoked . I was wondering who he was going to take out when he got the news. MTB also made the field on 2YO graded earnings which is what essentially allowed him to prep under the radar in New Mexico and still even have a chance to make the gate.

I couldn't handicap that outcome to save my life but I can't take anything away from Mine That Bird either. Bottom line is that they all raced on the same track and he passed every one of them. Freaky but still within the marginal realm of possibility given the totality of the circumstances.

Got to give credit to everybody who went with POTN, MM or PC - Nice y'all.

barryrmitchell

05/04 8:30 pm

The mood at Luxor was downright electric. The entire casino came to a stop moments before the race. Race and Sports Book manager Jeff Hoose really caters to racing fans and horse players alike. It was an awesome place to watch the Derby. If you’re ever on the Vegas strip and you like to play horses, Luxor is your spot. I’ve played the horses at a number of different venues, and I’ve never had such a good time away from live racing. My friends, who are not horse players, had a blast. They’re already talking about next year’s Derby. And Jeff, thanks for the Mint Juleps.

B ------------ Justin you sure know how to give a plug. What in it for you!

GQHA2TROT
05/04 1:39 pmCan anyone tell me WHEN was Mine That Bird gelded? Cuz I have a HUGE bone to pick with Brisnet!

Saturday night I heard somebody on TV say “gelding” and I thought, I don’t remember seeing that?! I went back and looked at my Brisnet PP's and sure enough he’s listed as a colt. Yet, the DRF PP's had it correct.

So when was he gelded?! If it was between the Derby and his last race… then I’ll REALLY be pissed. That’s an angle I always jump on, especially when the horses form is speed and he quits.

The INQUIRY sign has been posted which may DISDQUALIFY Brisnet from being my Go To PP's!

B ---------- The colt Past Performance indicates as a gelding at Sunland Park Derby March 28th, all recorded three year old moves and starts as a gelding.

I leaning toward the track at Sunland was not to the colt liking and everyone should draw a line thru those two races.

HERE IS WHY?

MIND THAT BIRD breeding which is outstanding on the male side, top and bottom took hold.

His mother MINING MY OWN was an unraced mare with a dosage index of 4.50 which is tremendous.

Breeder: Lamantia, Blackburn, & Needham/Betz Thoroughbreds
State Bred: KY Foaled February 9, 2001.
Nut her breeding is top and bottom Canadian.

SMART STRIKE (CAN)
b. 1992

to

ASPENELLE (CAN)
ch. 1990
Winnings: 4 Starts: 2 - 1 - 0, $68,425
2nd: Canadian Oaks
Dosage Index 5.29 (WOW)

Thus MINE THAT BIRD has one of the most outstanding breeding I have seen. For every generations since 1935

All males have produced Grade 1 winner and classic winners. Mine That Bird was Canadian two year old Champion.

(TOP) ALL GRADE 1 CLASSIC WINNERS

b. 2001 BIRDSTONE (USA)
dkb/br. 1993 GRINDSTONE (USA)
b. 1987 [BI] UNBRIDLED (USA)
b. 1977 [IC] FAPPIANO (USA)
b. 1970 [BC] MR. PROSPECTOR (USA)
b. 1961 [BC] RAISE A NATIVE (USA)
gr. 1950 [IC] NATIVE DANCER (USA)
br. 1942 [I] POLYNESIAN (USA)
blk/br. 1935 UNBREAKABLE (USA)

(BOTTOM) ALL GRADE 1 CLASSIC WINNERS

b. 1992 SMART STRIKE (CAN)
b. 1970 MR. PROSPECTOR (USA)
b. 1961 [BC] RAISE A NATIVE (USA)
gr. 1950 [IC] NATIVE DANCER (USA)
br. 1942 [I] POLYNESIAN (USA)
blk/br. 1935 UNBREAKABLE (USA)

The colt purchase price at 9500.00 yearling is the only amazing fact. With that blood line, the colt should have been sold quite higher!

Here is the true sale price for the colt that is recorded but not indicated in the press:

Owner: Dominion Bloodstock, D. Ball and HGHR Inc. through 2008; then Double Eagle Ranch ($400K private purchase) and Buena Suerte Equine

As I have look deeper into the Mine That Bird breeding. Mine That Bird had every right to be the winner of the 135 Kentucky Derby. He has shown the world what Championship breeding can really accomplish.

barryrmitchell

05/04 8:35 pm

So that all discussions concerning a doping offense CAN BE PUT TO REST.

MINE THAT BIRD WAS TESTED AND CAME BACK CLEAN (NEGATIVE)

MINE THAT BIRD RAN A CLASSIC RACE AS HIS BREEDING INDICATED ON THE RIGHT DAY, ON THE PERFECT STAGE.

SlewStable

05/04 9:17 pm

BARRY , JAZZY , DERBY , FRB , LAW , ASTRA , PONIEZ, and all that I have omitted , there will be a private group on -- tvgfantasy.com -- that has a game that runs from the Belmont to the Breeder's Cup. The group will be the " Derbybloggers " . I will post the pass-word on Facebook when available.
In order to be eligible for prize money you must join the Public league. You do not have to be a member to participate and there are no restrictions to collecting if you win.

Barry - you will like there system as you will be able to see everyone's scoring and transactions - nothing is hidden.

This will give the horse players something to talk about. After the Breeder's Cup - a game starts on 12/26 (usually) and runs thru the Derby. Hopefully , we will be conversing and spouting in the future. It was a lot of fun this year and good luck to all.

Slew

ghandi

05/04 9:40 pm

I have been handi-capin horses for bout 10 years now and after saturday all i can say is fix fix fix fix....a horse rides in back of a trailer for 21 hrs from new mexico and just drives up to the starting gate and have fire coming out his tail....i dont believe so....if i was in the greyhound bus bathroom for 21 hrs and hitting pot holes i come out not ready to walk for a week think about it.....his best beyer was 86 and what i seen on may 2, looked like a 121 after riding in the back of a trailer for 21 hrs ......i;ll be back for the preakness ...but i want this investigated....

johnnyjackson

05/04 9:46 pm

This horse should have never won this race . Fluke isn't the word for it . He's Giacamo all over again . He won't hit the board in the preakness ! That being said ,congrates to Mine That Bird and his connections ....

oliveroliver

05/04 10:36 pm

Thanks for the blog Justin. And it was great to read everyones posts and chat with y'all.

Talk about an ultimate fizzle to end such an exciting derby trail. After all the injuries we were left with a below average field- and it showed. Not to harp on what could have been- but QR, IWR or the 'Mousse eats that field alive.

Contrary to what I've seen written- I don't think that the underdog story is great for horse racing. not in this case. As followers of the sport, we understand how rare this feat is (not even on the same page as Giacomo, who actually was competitive with elite horses)- but it only fuels the publics notion that horse racing is no better than playing slots. it sure makes us look stupid for following these prospects for months. We all know that 50to1 shots hit, you learn to accept it (like a 1 outer on the river)- It just doesnt help recruit casual gamblers (who bet the derby) to come back and play the ponies year round. so in that aspect, it was dissapointing.

some of the most enjoyable chats here focused around non derby races- so i would like to see this, or another blog be open to discuss day to day races. take care everyone

michaelhaircut

05/04 11:14 pm

I hate to say it first, but if Mine that bird were to win the preakness (albiet he won't even be the favorite on preakness day), the horse racing gods have spoken. He will then go on to win the Belmont and for the first time in umpteen years we will have the precious triple crown winner we have been waiting, praying and dying for. But we won't be happy. He will leave us baffled. He will not fit the mold, of what we consider, a true triple crown winner should be. He will do what some of the so called greatest race horses of recent years couldn't accomplish. When we least expect it, is when its going to happen, and he will make them all look not as spectacular after all!

SlewStable

05/04 11:44 pm

Preakness probables
Horse Trainer Last race Finish
Big Drama D. Fawkes Swale S. 2nd
Charitable Man K. McLaughlin Blue Grass S. 7th
Conservative C. McGaughey III Lexington S. 2nd
General Quarters T. McCarthy Kentucky Derby 10th
Hull D. Romans Derby Trial 1st
Join in the Dance T. Pletcher Kentucky Derby 7th
Mine That Bird B. Woolley Kentucky Derby 1st
Miner's Escape N. Zito Tesio S. 1st
Mr. Fantasy K. McLaughlin Withers S. 1st
Musket Man D. Ryan Kentucky Derby 3rd
Papa Clem G. Stute Kentucky Derby 4th
Pioneerof the Nile B. Baffert Kentucky Derby 2nd
Sky Gate B. Meehan Southwell maiden 1st
Take the Points T. Pletcher Santa Anita Derby 4th
Terrain A. Stall Jr. Blue Grass S. 4th

greatcommunicator

05/05 2:40 am

Definitely THE most baffling derby I have personally seen in 20+ years of watching. Willing to chalk it up to the gambling gods and one heck of a ride by Borel. Did anyone hear him right after the race, when they had the microphone near him, yelling to the workers, "Did you see that ride I gave him!" Borel will always be remembered now after Street Sense & then this. If something like this was going to happen I am glad it happened to a guy like that. His enthusiasm for the sport & the animals is needed in horse racing.

As for my Derby day, had the PK4 alive to PC, FF, Dunkirk & CC. Also the Oaks, Woodford, Derby PK3 to those four and HMB, DP, RR & GQ. Only way I could have had Mine that Bird was to play all.

Nice pick by JD on POTN and those that believed MM would outrun his breeding.

Really enjoyed all the back and forth. It was great to get the insight & feedback from other people who love the game as much as I do. Always looking for people that know as much or more than me about horse racing and this blog was definitely filled with alot of knowledgeable degenerates. :)

Wish we had a permanent home that wasn't Facebook, but I will be looking forward to next years Derby trail and catching up on the races with this great group of handicappers.

May you all have a profitable year.

Peace

P.S. Thank goodness the Breeders Cup is staying at SA this year. YES!

edk218

05/05 9:49 am

To Justin and all the regular "derby bloggers", thanks for all the informative discussions over the past few months. It made the trail up to the derby a lot more entertaining and I learned quite a few things. Looking forward to continuing the discussions somewhere through the rest of the triple crown.

Still can't believe how quiet Churchill was at the very end of the Derby with everyone saying "who's 8?????". Never heard it like that in the few years I've been down there. Still can't believe it. I rank every horse in the Derby the day before and I had that horse has number 19 out of 20. I loved Summer Bird but ignored his half brother.

Congrats to everyone that played that horse for whatever reason (knew someone that had $100 to win on Mine that Bird b/c of Borel and the fact that her dog loved chasing birds, sigh).

playjazz2

05/05 11:04 am

Great blogging Justin---be here next year and hope site has bugs worked out---!!

Cdpotato4

05/05 1:25 pm

I am leaning toward not using Mine That Bird in the Preakness. Also, when handicapping leg 2 of the Triple Crown, be sure to toss the Derby completely from the PPs.

I also think for as strong a crop of 3 year olds we have/had this year, the Preakness will come up extremely weak.

SlewStable

05/05 2:02 pm

Maybe this crop turned out to be weaker ( in part by injury ) than we thought.

Spuds - join the game at tvg - I'll post password on Facebook or here if it exists when available
Starts Belmont - ends Breeder's Cup.

gmj828

05/05 2:51 pm

Upsets happen ALL the time in sports. Can't explain it.

Buster Douglas
Jets beat Colts SB III
69 Mets
Cannonero II
Super Bowll XVII Giants beat Pats
Larry Mize in the 86 Masters
1980 Miracle on Ice
Even the immortal Man O' War lost his only race to 100-1 shot named what else-Upset
Sometimes it's just too cosmic to explain. I really hope Mine That Bird is the second coming of
Count Fleet. Another diminutive horse nobody believed in that dominated.
Go Little Horse!

phil_cayla

05/05 3:05 pm

I'm with you gmj828, now that I have had time to mull this over, why does this horse have less chance than others to win the triple crown? With the move he made, and the way the competition is getting weaker by the race, he has as legit a shot as the next. He did not close on a suicidal pace like Giacomo, and he won by a much larger margin.
If he can get past the Preakness, the Belmont will be right up his alley. Yes the trainer seems like a bum, but I can't help but to root for Calvin and the little gelding that could. I can see a sports century story brewing in the future. lol.

Dog_Wager

05/05 3:25 pm

I, like many, many others, did not have Mine That Bird on any of our betting tickets at Churchill Downs, (Hold Me Back was my horse). Although, I can say a couple of things happened during Derby day that should have made me realize I should have put some money on Borel.

First off, Borel was winning. I remember having a couple adult beverages in the parking lot talking to some friends and discussing whether or not Borel's magic would continue through the day. We decided it wouldn't... and look what happened.

Also, when I was in the paddock up against the fence I turned to a friend of mine and said, "Boy, Mine That Bird looks ready to run." His response was: "Yes, but he doesn't have the talent to win." Which, of course, everyone thought.

Then, when I saw the pink #8 saddle flying down the rail, I turned to my friend and yelled, "Holy S***, it's Borel, he's going to win!" I have never kicked myself more.

Was the result in the Derby disappointing? That remains to be seen. If another horse, i.e. Pioneerof The Nile, romps in the next two legs, yes it will be; but all I can say is I glad I was there to witness a great ride by Calvin Borel.

jeffgalyen

05/05 4:28 pm

After Mine That Bird finishes in the bottom half of the field in the Preakness, I want all of you to re-post that drugs were not a factor in the Derby. I can show you 100's of well-bred horses who don't make it to the track - that wasn't it. A good ride can't move a horse up 16 lengths - that wasn't it. The mud won't move one horse up 16 lengths & move every other horse down - that wasn't it. Hundreds of thousands of people lost millions of dollars. I love horse racing, and hope it never comes out or I'm wrong, but I stand by my opinion - there is only one explanation. If Mine That Bird EVER duplicates this performance, I'll eat my words.

answer23

05/05 5:41 pm

jeffgaylen..wOOLey want's to know if you prefer New Mexico "RANCH" or the house special "well ya KNOW now damit" low cal....

answer23

05/05 6:18 pm

well it look's like the 62 studebaker... el primer grey... with twice pipes...lowered to the ground.. and may pop tire's van is headed to PIMliCO with the KD "GELDED"..oouch!..winner...wOOLey plans to sleep overnight at the local greyhound bus station while the the BIRD will attend " FILLIES nite" at Baltimore's best...

answer23

05/05 6:31 pm

possible "Peter Pan" starter's this sat-G2-! !/8 at bel

charitable man
al khali
hello broadway
imperial council
scorewithcater
stately character

battfist

05/05 10:42 pm

Any Churchill Pick 6 players?

4-1,5,9
5-2,6
6-2,4
7-1,2,6
8-4,6
9-4,8

barryrmitchell

05/06 12:41 am

Barry Mitchell parting shot!

Lol! what was this a PRISON ADDRESS

With Great Respect,
Bill Raucci
USS Cone DD-866
1970-1972
Gulf of Tonkin

HA HA HA HA HA HA

I feel safe Bill, God Bless you as well

See you next year, or blog me on twitter.

silvertipx

05/06 2:49 am

Justin ...... you never have reason to have to defend your analysis' to this woeful 'capper. BUT..... you're still short changing Musket Man.

He and Eibar were just getting set to move into Lane 3 at about 7-71/2f. Coa had all the horse he needed.
ZAP......... 2 "twinkletoes" come up to their finish line , one on each side, and trap him til into the stretch---6 WIDE. It's before the Cajun fires MTB...... and the rail would have been his.

Despite this mess...... and I don't know if he coulda topped that magnificent lil gelding...... MM still gets show.....despite POTN "drifting out" (ahem) and bumping him.

No sour grapes....Calvin WON that race with a horse that ain't as bad as all the torn ticket peeps say.
But .....IMO....clean trips MM deserves better for that race. And should convince all the detractors in Maryland.

Cdpotato4

05/06 8:47 am

I am very interested in the Peter Pan and the Lone Star. Coming out of the Sunland Derby, Mine That Bid won in Louisville and Advice won the Lexington.

Two more Sunland exiters will go this weekend. Mythical Power finished second in the Sunland Derby and he is the probable favorite in the Lone Star. Scorewithcater finished 3rd in the Sunland Derby and is being pointed toward the Peter Pan. He also beat Mine That Bird by a nose in the Borderland Derby.

I tend to agree with Andy Beyer when he says that Mine That Bird was given awful rides at Sunland Park. It was almost like they didn't know he was a closer, but being by Birdstone I find that hard to believe. They finally kept him way off and waited, and it paid off big time.

Anyway, the Sunland Derby seems to be a key race. I will be watching with a close eye this weekend If the two Mine That Bird opponents fair well, maybe it wasn't a fluke. If they flop, I will probably not use the Bird in the Preakness.

dta151

05/06 1:56 pm

Where do you play the new fantasy game for Belmont till breeders cup?

meh62

05/07 1:22 am

Some people here are either crazy or really angry that Mine That Bird stole their lunch money. According to them, we are to believe Mine That Bird was doped and his clean test results are because there's a vast conspiracy to hide the truth.

Couldn't be that his 80-somehting Beyer figure was wrong. Couldn't be that speed figures are unreliable. Nope, it's a conspiracy to hide the truth.

I suggest the doping theorists listen to crackpot radio. It's right up your alley.

jeffgalyen

05/07 12:32 pm

meh62

Don't know what happened so this might get posted twice.

I didn't lose a dime on MTB in the derby. I didn't cash a tkt, but I wouldn't have anyway if MTB had finished 4th.

It's naive to believe that drugs are not a part of horse racing. I don't like it, as a fan and an owner, but it is true. The powers that be have attempted to keep up with the problem. In California a few years back, they started testing for milkshakes. As I recall, Mullins received warnings. In California last year, they started testing for steroids. As I recall, some of Sadler's horses tested positive during the grace period before the firm rule went into place. As in baseball, cycling, & other sports, it's hard to keep up with the new drugs, masking agents, etc.

I'm not saying MTB absolutely could not have won the derby drug-free. I'm saying that it is my opinion that that is not the most logical explanation. The last 80 beyer could've been wrong, but the eight races of 81 or less beyers makes that less logical. The extra distance may have helped him by a couple of lengths. The mud may've moved him up a little (I don't think a lot, because it should've helped someone else too, if that were the case). The rail-skimming ride certainly saved him a number of lengths. The off-the-pace rally may've made a big difference, as some horses run much better with a different running style (but that type of ride is rarely effective in the derby, and usually into a hotter pace). Maybe it was the perfect storm. I find it more logical that it wasn't the perfect storm.

If MTB duplicates his effort, I'll eat my words, and gladly eat my words. I grew up working on a ranch. Wooley is the type of guy I'd like. I should love this story. Right now, I just don't buy it.

mikie barker

05/07 2:11 pm

CURLIN OWNERS BOUGHT RACHEL NOW SHE WILL DESTROY THEM IN THE PREAKNESS

barryrmitchell

05/07 2:36 pm

Hey Guy's please do not arguing doping or not!, We here on this blog, keep a clean and anti negative press free blog.

Those issue are better discussed by bigger and more influential minds. We have a tradition started by covering the races in the pure form of thoroughbred horse racing by picking winners, not debating the industry standards.

The ethic for this blog and the horse racing game we all love, need to be protected at all cost.

The bottom line is MTB has won the 135 Kentucky Derby on the same field of play. That makes MTB our Triple Crown Hopeful! Let's give the horse the respect do!,

Whether the horse receive a banned substances is not the horses fault and never should be mention, unless there is extreme proof.

Personally, I have never seen a horse asked for the drug Lol!

or even seen a horse administer a drug. (Must be painful)

That does not say, it does not happen! (Common Sense)

Let the GLORY OF MTB VICTORY CONTINUE FORWARD.

This sport does not need conjecture, or even proof, there are doping violation. Both situation are neither wanted or respected. We strive for fairness and Championship racing.

Every horse has a chance to win, if they are in the starting gate, I could have made a case for each entry to win the 135 Kentucky Derby, To be quite honest, I believe there was money wager on MTB, so some luck horse player was a better handicapper then me. That's the beauty of this game. The ODDS, the CHANCE, and the WINNER

Each horse belong in the line up! MTB had the grade earning, and was canadian two year champion.

IF YOU ASK EACH OWNER, WHY DID THEY START THEIR COLTS?

THEY ALL WOULD SAY! WE COULD ONLY WIN OR LOSE SO THAT 50/50 CHANCE.

BUT DEEP DOWN INSIDE, THEY ALL PRAYED THEY WOULD WIN 135 KENTUCKY DERBY.

AND THAT WHY MTB WON THE KENTUCKY DERBY. HIS VICTORY WAS GOOD FOR HORSE RACING.

Please have common sense concerning your post, please count the cost for negative messages, before posting. Are you helping the reader or the industry or not helping by your commentary?

barryrmitchell

05/07 2:48 pm

Mickie, I know you want Rachel in the Preakness, but you know my position "NO"
100,000 is simply to much up front money to answer the question this early.

Point for the filly triple crown and if she wins, her breeding goes thru the roof, more so then winning the Preakness Stakes could possibly offer. Then meet in the Travers Stakes, which will certainly have QR, The Pamplemousse, IWR and settle the difference. Without the main competition of the top colts, the Preakness is not the race to say, she is the Best of her generation.

DRF Comments:
"Entries for the Preakness, the second jewel of the Triple Crown, will be taken Wednesday. Rachel Alexandra is not nominated to the Triple Crown and therefore would have to be supplemented for a $100,000 fee. Supplemental entries in any Triple Crown race have lowest preference for making the field, so in the case that more than 14 horses are entered in the Preakness, she would be excluded.

Pimlico officials said they had been contacted Tuesday by a Stonestreet representative about procedures involving supplemental entries but that the name of a specific horse had not been mentioned.

michaelhaircut

05/07 4:21 pm

I've seen on numerous occasions horses lose their last five starts by a comined 200 lengths and blow a field away. I say to myself there is no way in hell. But!!!!!!!!!!! It happens! Who thought Sarava would win the Belmont a few years back?? It happens. I thought there was no way Jazil was losing the derby a few years back. He got boxed in on the rail and Barbaro won. Mind you he did come back and win the Belmont.

rdnkgrl

05/07 5:33 pm

I agree strongly with meh62 and barrymitchell. What is done is done. Mine that Bird simply outran the other 18 horses and the jockey outrode the other jockeys, so to speak. He passed his drug test also. The jockey couldn't have done anything if he hadn't had any horse left under him at the 3/8 pole. It was a combination of horse, jockey, & trainer. So lets give credit where its due and hope for a Triple Crown!

I find it disgusting for people to come up with excuses and slams for any of the people or horse involved. If they were in that position they would be ecstatic. I put $7 across on MTB. But I have to admit I wouldn't if I wasn't friends/acquaintences of the owners and trainer of MTB. I just did for the hell of it and it paid off. But if he hadn't won I woulda had a great time anyways. There were a few people I met there who placed bets on him just cuz I was rooting for him. They came up to me at the winners party and were ecstatic. It really made me feel good.

I don't know what all the fuss about the 21 hour trailer ride is about. There are lots of other equine sports in the country, cutting, reining, barrel racing, dressage, jumping, etc. Do you really think all these people fly their horses to the competition? Its not all a rich mans sport. These horses are not 'crippled' when they arrive! Its absurd to say it in a way that makes it sound as if he was forced to stand in a trailer for 21 hours straight. I know he made numerous stops along the way to let the horse out, Lone Star Park being one I know for sure. The person making that comment must not ever have owned a horse or even touched one. They should buy one but good luck getting home if he's a cripple when he arrives at your house. Besides, they showed up a week early. He had plenty of time to recover and adjust to his surroundings.

Wooley is a great person and oversees every detail involved with all the horses he trains. There aren't many trainers who do near as much hands on as he. He even feeds the horse himself! And he was breezing him before he broke his leg! He had the horse in the best possible shape before the race, that is all he could do. The horse just had to run his race, and he sure did. I'm not taking away from Borel either, he's an awesome rider! And by the way, he chose to ride MTB! I can't believe people are saying he got stuck on him. Where did they get their info?

I do believe MTB has his work cut out with him if Rachel is in the Preakness. She is awesome! But she also broke out good and ran toward the front the whole race. If MTB had gotten out good and not got smashed, who's to say he wouldn't have won by 20 or more lengths?

Just a few things to think about. I think a person can only judge so much from the books and the past races. It really just boils down to pure luck, with a little talent thrown in.

mikie barker

05/07 7:56 pm

Rachel Alexandra got a Beyer Speed Figure of 108 compared to Mine That Bird's 105, the first time the Oaks winner has received a better fig than the Derby winner. ILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE A BOW :)

Cdpotato4

05/07 9:20 pm

rnkgrl,

"If MTB had gotten out good and not got smashed, who's to say he wouldn't have won by 20 or more lengths?"...

I'm to say. There is no way that horse wins the race if he breaks well and runs closer to the pack. The reason he won is because he walked the first mile while being unhurried. Estimated fractions for Mine That Bird are: :27^1 :50^3 1:15^3 1:39^2.

Borel won that race. He knew that under the conditions, many would have trouble getting the distance regardless of how fast they ran up front. I don't know how, but he knew. This was blatantly obvious as he was more than willing to walk the first mile. That horse only had to run the final 1/4 and he did it in a very fast :23^1. My feeling is if Johnny V sat way back with Borel, Dunkirk leaves that horse in the dust. The jockey won that race, it's that simple. He did need something under him to win it, but that is all he had was something. Not a freak. Not a monster. Just enough of something that it could run for 23 seconds after walking the first mile.

barryrmitchell

05/07 9:45 pm

mikie barker
05/07 7:56 pmRachel Alexandra got a Beyer Speed Figure of 108 compared to Mine That Bird's 105, the first time the Oaks winner has received a better fig than the Derby winner. ILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE A BOW :)

B ------------------- I still love you Mikie Lol! , despite your marriage to Rachel, I know you have to defend your wife! But if she shows up at the Preakness wedding, she going to lose her shoe, and be sent home like Cinderella. Lol!

Her 108 was ran on better track foundation and the race track had not been seal. You know this!

The Kentucky Derby was ran on a seal track, glazed over with a 3 inch cushion. Not as fast!

So there can not be any comparison. Plus 108 beyers after running 6 furlong split in 1:11 4/5, couple with 47 4/5 is slow, I mean very slow, she will have to run 5-7 lengths quicker (early) against the boy's to be competitive, unless you see Rachel as a deep closure from 5-7 off pace.

She will never get close to Big Drama early, so she will have to rate in the mid pack!, she has never had dirt thrown in her face before, so it will be interesting to find out if Rachel can close the gap!

BUT I STILL SAY, IT'S TO EARLY FOR THE COMPETITION, UNLESS THEY KNOW SHE WILL NOT HOLD HER FORM LATER AFTER A LONG CAMPAIGN.

She will not be a weeding crasher in the Preakness.

barryrmitchell

05/07 9:46 pm

mikie barker
05/07 7:56 pmRachel Alexandra got a Beyer Speed Figure of 108 compared to Mine That Bird's 105, the first time the Oaks winner has received a better fig than the Derby winner. ILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE A BOW :)

B ------------------- I still love you Mikie Lol! , dispite your marriage to Rachel, I know you have to defend your wifeee! But if she shows up at the Preakness wedding, she going to lose her shoe, and be sent home like Cinderella. Lol!

Her 108 was ran on better track foundation and the race track had not been seal. You know this!

The Kentucky Derby was ran on a seal track, glazed over with a 3 inch cushion. Not as fast!

So there can not be any comparison. Plus 108 beyers after running 6 furlong split in 1:11 4/5, couple with 47 4/5 is slow, I mean very slow, she will have to run 5-7 lenghts quicker (early) against the boy's to be competitive, unless you see Rachel as a deep closure from 5-7 off pace.

She will never get close to Big Drama early, so she will have to rate in the mid pack!, she has never had dirt thrown in her face before, so it will be interesting to find out if Rachel can close the gap!

BUT I STILL SAY, IT'S TO EARLY FOR THE COMPETITION, UNLESS THEY KNOW SHE WILL NOT HOLD HER FORM LATER AFTER A LONG CAMPAIGN.

RACHEL will not be a weeding crasher in the Preakness.

barryrmitchell

05/07 10:14 pm

The Preakness field is limited to 14 runners. If more than 14 enter, a convoluted, three-tiered process is used to make up the field, according to the posted race conditions. The first seven runners are determined by earnings in graded stakes, which is the only tiebreaker for the Derby. The next four Preakness runners are determined by earnings in non-restricted stakes, which includes races that are not graded. The final three spots go to the horses with the most lifetime earnings. "Should this preference produce any ties, the additional starters(s) shall be determined by lot," the race conditions state.

In the Derby, in which the maximum field is 20, the race conditions clearly state that a supplemental nominee cannot bump a horse originally nominated. The Preakness language is not as clear, and may impact Rachel Alexandra, because, since she was not an original nominee to the Triple Crown, she would have to be supplemented to the race for $100,000.

The Preakness conditions say nothing about original nominees having preference over supplements. It says the tiebreaker kicks into effect "in the event that more than fourteen (14) horses are properly nominated and pass through the entry box."

Just what is "properly nominated"? Is a horse who was supplemented any less "properly nominated" than an original nominee? Georgeanne Hale, the racing secretary at Pimlico, did not return a call on Thursday seeking clarification on that point.

B ----------------- Let me say, I love this kind of commentary "Contractual Law or ruling"

Comes down to interpretation of the wording "Properly Nominated",
LOL! LOL! LOL!
I tell you what the word term means, "Did your check cash at the bank" LOL!

There can be no denying, if Rachel pay's the 100K, her racing graded earning comes into play,
RACHEL become a participate at that point,

Why would there the offer of 100K, only to say, others horses are now ahead of you anyway in the selection. MAKES NO SENSE WHATSOEVER. THEY KNOW THE 100K IS AN ACTIVATION FEE, AND THEN THE RULES DIVIDE THE ENTRIES TILL THE FINAL 14 IS SELECTED.

BUT I HAVE TO ASK THIS QUESTION:
If you don't make the entry box after paying the 100K (lets say, 14 other horse have more graded earning), Will Pimlico refund the late nomination fee. Probably Not! why? because every horses which passed the initial nomination fee whether late or early, must still pass the graded earning criteria, and guarantee entry for the Kentucky Derby.

Got to love the RED TAPE applied here

rdnkgrl

05/08 9:24 pm

Once again, I really wonder how many of these people actually own horses or have been around them? I'm so tired of hearing about what was ran. Bottom line is that it doesn't matter. Rachel is going to be a contender. I have not doubt of that. And Mine That Bird also will be. It is going to be a great race. I just don't wanna hear the crap when 'Mine That Bird' smokes the competition and they didn't win any money. Cuz he's definitely gonna be up there in the money! So place your bets and cross your fingers, cuz nothing else is gonna help you. God, please guide us in our wagering! Lol! There's just way too many factors that had a hand in the Derby. And the same will happen at the Preakness! Good luck everyone!

moon exalt

05/09 2:11 am

First, I am thrilled that Mine That Bird won the Derby. Whatever the confluence of events, luck, and skill that caused it, it was pretty awesome to watch; I was looking for Friesan Fire in the pack as POTN took the lead, and caught site of the horse sweeping up the rail. The race caller was still talking about MM, PC, and POTN, and I was shouting, "Yes, but who the F--- just blew past them on the rail??!!!!" I hope he does well in the Preakness.

My money goes to Rachel Alexandra though.
Now, I am not that old, but since I was a kid, fillies have won the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont, the Arc, the Melbourne cup (the same mare, twice!)... and the list goes on. Dismissing a horse because of gender is dumb, imho.

That said, I won't bet RA in the Preakness just because she's a girl, but because as far as I can tell, she's just a better horse. Not only did she get a higher Beyer as others have pointed out (I'm pretty sure they take track conditions into account, right?), but Calvin is jumping off the Derby winner to ride her. That should say something.

I personally expect Rachel Alexandra to have to get competitive and still kick everyones @$$es while showing them hers, and if she gets beat, it won't be because she's a girl, it'll be because she's a horse, and that's horse racing, where some horses run better than others on any given day.

Also, I find it funny that one of RA's old connections (the trainer, maybe?) said that she absolutely wouldn't compete in any the the TC races because he believed they should showcase future stallions. Not only do I find something wrong with that statement, but it's hilarious that the first of the 2009 Triple Crown races was then won by a Gelding. Yay for Mine That Bird!

mikie barker

05/09 6:51 pm

FIGURES UGHHHHHHHH Pimlico oddsmaker Frank Carulli confirmed that he would make Rachel Alexandra the morning line favorite

barryrmitchell

05/10 7:31 am

mikie barker
05/09 6:51 pmFIGURES UGHHHHHHHH Pimlico oddsmaker Frank Carulli confirmed that he would make Rachel Alexandra the morning line favorite

B ------------------- Mikie, I still think Rachel stay's in the barn.

The first leg for the filly NYRA triple crown is the $300,000 Acorn at Belmont on June 6, "This would be three weeks after the Preakness.

Running Rachel makes no sense what so ever.

barryrmitchell

05/10 9:22 pm

When asked about the uproar that plan might create if it meant keeping out Rachel Alexandra, Allen said, "I don't think we caused the uproar. I think that this filly being bought and them supplementing her into this race caused the uproar." (DRF.COM 5/10)

B----------------
Mikie, see this is exactly what I was commenting previously about Rachel entry into the Preakness Stakes. Behind the horse racing scene, many owners are tired of filly crossing over into the colt and gelding races. It reduces stub value if they lose and if they win, it does not increase stud value a single penny. Rachel should not run against the colt. It starting to create negative attitudes in horse racing.

MGuerndt

05/11 12:08 pm

That just seems silly.

Rachel Alexandra and Mine that Bird have exactly the same value as future studs - none.

If you want a race that's for future studs only, then exclude geldings and fillies.

As long as this race remains open to both, may the best horse win. And I think that's Rachel Alexandra, although the two week turnaround makes me a little nervous.

The people on this site complain constantly about the lack of tv coverage for this sport. These are the kinds of stories that make people love horse racing. You have to give them a reason to like it, then they'll watch it.

And if Preakness raceday coverage includes stories about how Rachel Alexandra was kept out by shady owners, you're going to lose some of the public, which means even less coverage next year.

Cdpotato4

05/11 5:47 pm

Barry,

you are being ridiculous. If Rachel gets shut out of the Preakness, it will be a travesty. I don't get how Allen and Zayat see nothing wrong with their plans of entering maidens just to scratch them so she can't run. They are idiots.

barryrmitchell

05/12 6:58 am

CD, yea! yea! yea!

Heard it all, PRO and CON for each point of view. Stud value is never the same between colt and filly.
How many babies can a filly bring each year (1) Colts, cover over 100 fillies or mares each year at 25,000 average, if he is a true stud.

Major dollar difference. But for the sake of the sport, it's open to gelding and filly to compete against each other.

But make no mistake, owners are piss about the cross over. There are races each year which are conditional and do not allow fillies to race colts. Check your average condition book for each race track. IT'S IN BIG BOLD PRINT!

Well, I just don't think Rachel the country girl can beat the colts anyway. So after this weekend, if they decide to race her, the argument will be mute! and they would have sacrifice the filly triple crown for nothing.

My selection more than ever is PAPA CLEM again.

DerbyFan78

05/12 10:24 pm

Testing...

DerbyFan78

05/12 11:02 pm

So, I'm psyched about Saturday and cannot wait to see Rachel take it to them. Now, let's try to decipher 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. I'll take a stab at post time odds..

RA - 9/5 praying for 2/1
POTN - 2/1, possibly 5/2
MTB - 7/2
PC - 9/2
FF - 5/1
MM - 6/1
BD - 8/1
TTP - 10/1
GQ - 11/1
Terr - 25/1
FP - 28/1
LG - 35/1
TiD - 50/1

Thoughts?

GoColts

05/13 9:26 am

It's back! Where is Mikie Barker? Smithwick let us down yesterday....still worth watching him though.

GoColts

05/13 9:32 am

testing

battfist

05/13 11:34 am

DerbyFan-
I beg to differ-your odds are off...way off.
No way RA goes off better than 1-2...
MTB-6-1

Personally-I rather not see RA in this race.
They better pray nothing happens to this horse.

ryanmoseley

05/13 12:35 pm

Barry,

I read your posts in disbelief as you commented on a filly's place in races "traditionally for colts and geldings." Stud value is a paramount concern to the owner of a colt. There is no disputing that. But as a breeder I would like to know if I'm breeding to a horse who can't beat a filly in May of his 3 year old year! Curlin's stud value wasn't diminished by him losing to Rags to Riches was it? This is horse racing Barry. Put the best horses in a race and see who wins. As has already been suggested if the breeders really want the triple crown races to be a showcase of future stallions rather than races for the best 3 year olds in the country then have them get the conditions of the race changed. The Epsom Derby doesn't allow fillies or geldings. That is their tradition. Are you in favour of America changing their tradition? If so then that is fine but for now the "future stallion" argument is moot at best and shouldn't be used other than in an attempt to change the conditions of the races. I am quite sure that the presence of Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness is going to generate more interest in the race than normal and for the right reasons. THE BEST 3 YEAR OLD HORSES IN THE COUNTRY WILL BE SQUARING OFF!!! If a colt in there beats Rachel then their value would increase for beating the SUPER FILLY more than just by winning the Preakness alone. The actions of Allen and Zayat were fueled by GREED. Nobody likes a greedy dictator!

ryanmoseley

05/13 12:42 pm

Oh and breeding is all well and good for the owners. The fans LOVE RACING!!! RACING is in the public eye and should be treated in the highest regard. What do I care if Zayat stands POTN for $30 000 instead of $40 000. At 100 mares (conservative estimate) he makes $3 000 000 a year instead of $4 000 000. Thats far less of a travesty than the public not getting to see their dream race!

GoColts

05/13 8:01 pm

Testing again

Cdpotato4

05/13 8:36 pm

Thank you Ryan

moon exalt

05/13 10:08 pm

Yes, thank you Ryan.

I'd also like to point out that without a filly, the Kentucky Derby might not have become the race it is today; the race's rise to prominence is generally credited to Regret's presence and subsequent win in 1915.

I hope RA and MTB run one-two, in any order. : )

DerbyFan78

05/14 10:13 am

Battfist,

Trust me, I love Rachel, but there's no way she's 1/2 Saturday. Yes, her Oaks performance left most speechless, but this will be 1st time against the boys and there are entirely too many other runners in the race that will take an enormous amount of money (mainly POTN, MTB, FF, PC, BD, and GQ). I'll be shocked if she's below 9/5.

battfist

05/14 12:18 pm

DerbyFan

Maybe....but dnt you think most if not all of the ladies at Pimlico on saturday are going to play her?

If she goes off better than 1/1 - I almost willing to hit the ATM and play a big win wager on her.

ryanmoseley

05/14 4:58 pm

oldpathsfarm

05/14 9:23 pm

Hey, for anyone still out there that might know, what's going on with the RTTR Fantasy game prizes??

Rules say winners will be notified within 7 days of the Derby, and listed on the RTTR page. I haven't heard a word, and I finished 16th (4th - 25th place supposed to get a jacket). Even sent an e-mail, and got no response.

Anybody got a clue?

Thanks!

barryrmitchell

05/15 2:27 am

oldpathsfarm
05/14 9:23 pmHey, for anyone still out there that might know, what's going on with the RTTR Fantasy game prizes??

Rules say winners will be notified within 7 days of the Derby, and listed on the RTTR page. I haven't heard a word, and I finished 16th (4th - 25th place supposed to get a jacket). Even sent an e-mail, and got no response.

Anybody got a clue?

Thanks!

B ------------------ Good Luck, I have a gripe with the RTTR since they started the contest. Not once have they replied to any emails. It's like my money went into the big black hole or something.

barryrmitchell

05/15 2:34 am

Ryan, I don't agree. But it won't matter after Saturday, the filly can't win. She will not make the lead in the race unless Calvin send her from the outside, and that is a n absolutely death wish.

She charts 5 off down the back stretch never improving her position against the boys.

POW POW there more where that come from!

battfist

05/15 1:07 pm

Barry-I enjoy the eccentric comments.

Im willing to wager she gets beat. Im not wagering much...but Im playing against her.

battfist

05/16 10:48 am

Dixie Stakes

Race of the Day!

Parading...noses out Monba.

battfist

05/16 4:57 pm

DerbyFan-you were right. 2-1 so far.

How about NBC laying a huge egg with this coverage....terrible.

20 Ex-13-389

3/5813/15813

barryrmitchell

05/16 6:12 pm

Rachel is very special in winning the Preakness Stakes

But here is what I will finally say concerning the race and tradition.

If the filly was not entered, we all would be starring at a possible Triple Crown winner.

Calvin has to have mix emotions, as many do Mine that Bird ran a winning race in a losing effort.

Quites all the past critical communication concerning his effort in the 135 Kentucky Derby.

Congrats to Rachel, but I cannot give credit to the new owners . They simply don't deserve the trophy. No labor and no reward is my model. Glad to hear Steve gave credit to Rachel pass owners, but the new owners had no such comment for the pass team. Piss me off to watch his attitude.

I don't believe she will contest the Belmont. Rachel look very exhausted after the race, head was low and slow to walk back. If Mine that Bird does win the Belmont stakes, I will be very sick, knowing we had long waited for a Triple Crown winner and MONEY dash the hopes of the racing industry by buying Rachel like the sheiks have done in the pass to American racing.

SlewStable

05/16 8:18 pm

This is the first time that I could sign on in a few weeks. How about that Filly , Barry ? She looked pretty special going 46+ first half as BD tried to ride her wide to the back stretch. She killed the five around her BD-FF-POTN-PC-TTP as she beat them all by about a furlong. If MTB could have ridden the rail instead of losing ground going wide he may have caught her. 1 1/4 miles MTB gets her. Calvin Borel said that the filly didn't like the track and still won.
I would rest her after this but her new owner said that she was Belmont bound - could be a mistake. MTB and some new-comers will be there - Charitable Boy , perhaps.

SlewStable

05/16 8:30 pm

Oldpathsfarm - Finally got back on here. RTTR is a very shaky contest. Some people were able to play for pay well after the 10 day period. Some paid after the Bluegrass when they still had a shot.
Questions I asked had people with more horses in their stable than allowed. Two were handicappers at CD. How many more had this and weekly winners had more points than possible.

The contest will be at tvgfantasy.com - starts Belmont Stakes Day - sign-ups should start next week.
Our group will be the Derbybloggers - to win prize money you must be in the Public League. 1st place is $7500. Everybody's stable is viewable with the date & time of every transaction and score. If your jockey is Gomez - it will show each race he is in - 5 points a win or zero. If I can still get on here I'll post the password - If not go to Facebook " Derbybloggers" I'll paste it there also.

battfist

05/19 6:47 am

Slew-can you repost that password...Im game.

GQ ran into some trouble in the Preakness.

RA is special-but she needs either to run in the Belmont and win or the Travers before I believe she is the best 3-year old....nevermind the next coming of Ruffin.
The Preakness was an exciting race though. MTB-can he get the respect he deserves?

barryrmitchell

05/21 11:56 am

Slew, I have establish a user name and passwrod, but they have not posted the current game you have spoken about!

Don't forget to contact me on Facebook

jeffgalyen

05/21 12:03 pm

Been in and out of the hospital with a newborn, so unable to catch up until now. I was wrong. Mine That Bird & Wooley deserve a lot of credit. Mine That Bird is a very good horse, who could beat ANYBODY in the country if the pace is fast. I can't recall this deep of closer with this kind of quality. I get extra excited about geldings in today's quick to stud climate. Hopefully, Mine That Bird has more of a Commentator than Funny Cide career. I see no reason why he can't duplicate this form on the artificial tracks, as it seems the key turnaround was his running style, not the surface (& possibly the extra distance).

I hope Rachel rests - she'll be better off in the long run. And let's not be too hard on Jess Jackson (barry), remember, he let us watch Curlin one year longer than 90% of owners today would've, & will probably keep Rachel in training longer than most would. Finally, I hope MTB gets a rest after the Belmont. Winning the Travers is not that big of a deal for a gelding. I'd rather see MTB pointed toward the big money in the Breeders Cup with 2 easy preps before the Cup ala the derby.

And I'm still excited about this 3yo crop. I think we'll see that Quality Road, Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, & Musket Man are all top horses in the future.

All that said, I think the Belmont will set up exciting betting opportunities. MTB will deservedly get a ton of betting interest. But the Belmont is not typically won with his running style. If there is not much pace in the race, it would not be surprising to me if MTB ran 3rd or 4th even if he runs his race, which I would have every reason to expect he will. That said, I will be rooting for him, and will be rooting even harder for Borel, if he's up, in his big for the triple crown.

SlewStable

05/26 1:26 pm

I've been waiting for the new game to begin registration - not yet. Probably by early next week , as scoring starts on Belmont Day , stable entries must be in on Friday (11:59 pm edt) to count.

As soon as I get in I'll post here and Facebook ( Derbybloggers )

Slew

SlewStable

05/26 1:26 pm

I've been waiting for the new game to begin registration - not yet. Probably by early next week , as scoring starts on Belmont Day , stable entries must be in on Friday (11:59 pm edt) to count.

As soon as I get in I'll post here and Facebook ( Derbybloggers )

Slew

SlewStable

06/02 7:41 pm

TVG Contest is getting ready to start - they are working out the bugs. If it starts Saturday , any horse running then must be in your stable by 11:59 pm EDT Friday. Go to tvgfantasy.com - click rules - view Summer-Fall Game. This will tell you how to play. Usually you sign up two weeks prior to the Belmont .

I'll keep you posted for our group's password.

Slew

SlewStable

06/02 7:42 pm

TVG Contest is getting ready to start - they are working out the bugs. If it starts Saturday , any horse running then must be in your stable by 11:59 pm EDT Friday. Go to tvgfantasy.com - click rules - view Summer-Fall Game. This will tell you how to play. Usually you sign up two weeks prior to the Belmont .

I'll keep you posted for our group's password.

Slew

SlewStable

07/25 9:48 am

TVG's East Coast/West Coast Handicapping Challenge!

Beginning Jul 24 2009 9:00AM, you will be able to register for East Coast/West Coast Handicapping Challenge, TVG's Handicapping Challenge featuring Saratoga and Del Mar races!

How to Register and Play:

1) Click the Register button on the right-hand side

2) For TVG account holders, Click "YES" to use your TVG account number and PIN to login.

3) For non-TVG account holders, Click "NO" and enter all of the appropriate information and register for the contest.

4) Beginning Wednesday, July 29th, you will be given a bankroll of $800.00 and be asked to place a $20 Win/Place wager (total ticket price: $40) on a single horse in any selected race at Saratoga or Del Mar.

5) Over the duration of the contest you must make twenty $20 Win/Place bets. If you do not make the necessary twenty Win/Place bets over the course of the contest you will be disqualified.

6) The cost of the Win/Place bets will be deducted from your bankroll.

7) Your winnings will appear in your winnings column.

8) The contestant with the highest winnings at the end of the contest will be the winner.

9) If two contestants are tied for highest winnings on 08/09/09, then the winner will be determined by the contestant with the most wins.

Other Notes

1) You cannot cancel your selection.

2) If you click the "Make Contest Wager" button and nothing happens, make sure your pop-up blocker allows you to accept pop-ups from TVG.com.

3) Make sure to click the "Contest Program Page" button in the navigation bar to see horses, jockeys, trainers and odds for each race conducted in the contest.

Cdpotato4

01/22 9:23 am

Anyone back? Knock knock. Any life here?

oldpathsfarm

01/22 1:54 pm

cdpotato: That's pretty funny; I haven't been back here since right after the Derby, and today I decided to take a look, and there you were! I probably was prompted by just reading about the Holy Bull (go Jackson Bend!). Anyway, howdy! See everyone in a few more weeks!

Cdpotato4

01/22 2:27 pm

oldspath,

did u see barbaro's full bro just broke his maiden on the turf. Switch over to dirt and prep up to the derby? Ahh what a great time of year!

oldpathsfarm

01/22 2:53 pm

Lentenor keeps getting better, I think, but it's early. I'd love to see him on dirt real soon and just see how he handles it. Sounds like they're not sure where he's going next, but I'm sure someone in the room has already let the words "Triple Crown" slip from their lips.

Cdpotato4

02/02 11:30 am

Come on everybody!!! Wake up!!! It's February!!!

If you are having trouble posting then try logging in on the home page first. Then come to the blog and click "Add a Comment" at the bottom. Let's get this thing going!

Notice

We are increasing comment moderation during Derby Week. It may take up to 7 MINUTES before your comments appear on the site.

Don't panic! Commenting has NOT been disabled. To improve site performance, we have moved the comment form to its own page. Follow the link above to post your comments.

Please Login or Join to Post Comments