Derby Day Live Blog

Barry Mitchell has check in. Appears to be working!

Astragalas has confirmed that Barry Mitchell has checked in....

Barry has confirmed Astra has check in as well.

Astragalas would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge Mr. Mitchell's validation of Astragalas's confirmation of Barry's attendance.

Anyone know DD payout for RA / DP ? She was magnificent ! I played her in 5 @ $10 : FF - RR - CC - POTN - DP.

$5 Pick - 3s RA / 3 - 6 - 9 / 6 - 10 - 11 - 13 - 15 - 16 - 19

Played two $10 exactas : RA / 1 & 3 - covered the above. Will go crazy manana with buckshot using 6 - 10 - 11 - 16 - 19.

Astra and Barry have exited the blog...and have entered the twilight zone.

Oaks Derby Will Pays (for $1):

1 West Side Bernie $74.50
2 Musket Man $42.90
3 Mr. Hot Stuff $71.20
4 Advice $97.20
5 Hold Me Back $24.50
6 Friesan Fire $7.10
7 Papa Clem $30.70
8 Mine That Bird $154.60
9 Join In The Dance $153.50
10 Regal Ransom $32.90
11 Chocolate Candy $25.50
12 General Quarters $37.70
13 I Want Revenge $6.10
14 Atomic Rain $172.20
15 Dunkirk $10.10
16 Pioneerof The Nile $11.50
17 Summer Bird $81.90
18 Nowhere To Hide $167.40
19 Desert Party $25.30
20 Flying Private $155.20

Mullins didn't want to get caught cheating, that A$$

No more ACCESS DENIED
my puter's working again, now off to the track.

that's the last time i play Mullins in the future wagers. Can't believe I have to go back to the track today and change all my pix. My plan was to hang out by the methadone clinic, find a new friend (one much stabler than Astra) and go sneak into some Lamaze class followed by crashing a wedding. drats

virtual bet scratch of my tri's , brings the bank back up 3340. will now play.
$1670 WP on Dunkirk
remaining bank:: zilch.

Story of my life
blogging by myself again, my arm's getting sore

this cannot be any worse for FF's odds, ugh!

I thought I was winning this War of Attrition with my lone future pool bet on IWR in pool 1. Now I've got to go to the battlefield myself and seperate the pawns from the knights.

Voodoo
war, pawns, knights? Did we play some Stratego last nite?

FYI
pick 4 scratches
Race 8--
6--sugar mint
7--ballymore
9--elusive

Who will all the IWR supporters jump on now?

Maybe Baffert knew something was up when he took post 16 instead of 15!!!

hehehe nope, but given all the fallouts in the last 7 days I need to look and see if ANY non-Field horses in Pool 1 are even running!

.jjjjeff, good point, alot of space to find a spot now. Gomez can try to find a spot in the 3 path and avoid mud in his face as much as possible.

Baffert, Zayat and Gomez have a 2 and a 1, looks like the team might be hot today.

LAW - The scratches in the ninth - you have Elusive Lady ( not showing scratched at CD site) was it a recent scratch?

Throw in the Godolphin Duo - they are live today.

No milkshakes today.

does anyone know of a website with real time odds for the derby like they have running all day at racetracks on derby day

My pool 2 exacta of 'mousse, QR, IWR, and dunkirk is not officially dead. and funny thing was Dunkirk was supposed to be the biggest risk of making the race. ouch. i can feel a tilt bet coming today.

oops, obviously i meant to say "now dead"

i read on drf that General Q worked well over mud. and i noticed he has highest tomlinson rating for wet tracks (for whatever thats worth).... how much is his big dip in odds have to do with handicapping or his great story?

Track is drying out fast, expected to be good or fast by post time. Calvin Borrel said on ESPN

test

Barry

Calvin Borel is my favorite jockey cause we all know he loves to close on longshots, but if there's no wind or sun, he's being more optimistic about a fast track. It'll still be muddy if not sloppy if the weather doesn't change.

I've got Chocolate Candy on top of Friesan Fire, with Hold Me Back rallying for a late 3rd.

Let's see if this thing works or not? Having IWR out bytes Big Time! I won't even have the satisfaction of getting excited about my future wagers at this point. It's like finding out there is no Santa! Also... someone please explain, where does all the scratch money in the future wagers go??? Is it like Simple Irresistible, She's so fine, there's no telling where the money went!

Barry - did you shake the voodoo stick at IWR this morning? I never would have believed you would be right on calling a scratch.

I'm glad Jazz in the Park showed Jazzy a little love! Yow!!!

They did not rake the track between races, letting the water stay on top for drying out. The bottom is drying faster from the draining. Big change will come when the scrap the track

Jazzy, the future wager money on IWR went to the same place it was designed to go: The winner of the Derby, less takeout. Nothing changes. Payoffs remain the same. Only thing is, the field bet looks a lot better. There are now only 5 horses from Future Pool 1 competing in the derby: Chocolate Candy, Fesian Fire, Pioneerof The Nile, Papa Clem and West Side Bernie. Everyone else is your Field at 9:5.

jazzybrick
05/02 12:59 pmLet's see if this thing works or not? Having IWR out bytes Big Time! I won't even have the satisfaction of getting excited about my future wagers at this point. It's like finding out there is no Santa! Also... someone please explain, where does all the scratch money in the future wagers go??? Is it like Simple Irresistible, She's so fine, there's no telling where the money went!

Barry - did you shake the voodoo stick at IWR this morning? I never would have believed you would be right on calling a scratch.

B ------------------ Nope, the way the Derby line up been attack with injuries, I was listening to another handicapper show out of San Diego, they are questioning the track conditions. More injuries from the backside then what the general public is aware of this week.

Interesting Post Position 5 thru 1 has recorded all winners for the day. I believe post 12 and out ( losers) will not have a good time out there today.

Starting to look at West Side Bernie as a huge outside play , even from the rail and Advice. My top horse Papa Clem he will remain.

I think royale michele has good shot in the 9th

I've read this blog for three years, usually passively. I know enough to know that Barry is the blogger to read when you want a winner. My main play is a FF/PC box. WSB is my win bet and I'm running a super with FF, Dunny, Musket and GQ. I have a Dunny/MM exacta as a backup.

Taking a stand against Godolphin and POTN. Thanks for all the knowledge guys and cash them tickets.

I've read this blog for three years, usually passively. I know enough to know that Barry is the blogger to read when you want a winner. My main play is a FF/PC box. WSB is my win bet and I'm running a super with FF, Dunny, Musket and GQ. I have a Dunny/MM exacta as a backup.

Taking a stand against Godolphin and POTN. Thanks for all the knowledge guys and cash them tickets.

Im having a good day!
Up $200...

Looking to put a Ben Franklin on Einstein...bad idea?

DId you see the segment by Jay Leno, with the children!, they all picked Papa Clem, I'm Crying, I have been heard by the little ones in America. Love the babies!

Hahahha

I love Einstein!
Best looking horse out there too!

I loved the Jay Leno bit!! HA it was perfect!

So I'm betting on the Derby for the first time this year and went a little overboard. Twinspires.com requires a minimum $50 put in your account...and I bet all of it. Now that may not seem like a lot to you guys, but I'm one of those girls who typically makes one or two $2 bets and that's it.

Instead my bets are as follows:

$2 exacta box 6, 15, 19

$1 exacta box 2, 3, 7, 16

$1 tri box 5, 6, 17

$1 super, 16 with 5, 10, 12 boxed.

and $2 WIN on #6.

At this point whatever I win probably won't cover what I bet! Oh well :P

Hm, I just realized I still have a little bit of $$ left in my TS account.....but ya know what, I'm going to quit while I'm ahead ;)

prettydrake, don't feel bad, I just dropped $800 on a win bet. I will be alot more depressed than you if it fails. lol

Anybody see the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pk3 payouts at all? Just checking.

Holy #$%!

Barry, your Papa Clem ruined FF chances right out of the gate!!!

atleast I had Mine That Bird in 19th, great call JD
Have a fun and profitable rest of the year everyone.
Toodles

laaaaammmmmmmeeeeee!!!!! i took the wrong birdstone colt for my longshot. why couldnt that have been summer bird and i'd have tri?

i could have taken 18 horses today and not even worried about mine that bird beating me. ouch.
brutal.

Barry......you were right again.........4 letters....4 letters....oops...forgot the 3rd batch of 4 letters.......

congrats to Calvin and all the connections!!! It kind of makes you feel good even in a loss that the 'little guy' still has a spot in racing these days.

Well, guess I just fell big time from 6th place for the RTTR payout list. Sure thought GQ would pull out an upset.

Many congratulations to Calvin Borel who has to be considered among the best now. And WOW, Mine That Bird ran the shoes off every horse out there today! Amazing! Just shows, ANYONE can win the Derby, as long as you're standing in the gates when they open.

Thanks to EVERYONE out there for your informative, always entertaining posts. See you all next February or so, I guess!

-Travis

oops...meant to say even though 'I lost', good to see the little guy still has a place................

JD, just a thought for the recap.........in the future with as open as the race as, when I find a horse I like as much as you liked POTN.......isn't there room in your bets for at least $1 or $2 POTN-ALL and ALL-POTN? (like Superfan Meredith's saver with Flying Private).

Well everyone, I look forward to our Preakness Stakes discussion.

For all of you who think Rachel would have won the Derby!, think again. The winner was moving to quick, with a 5 furlong move. That how the classic is won with such a move and a love for the going. The 1 1/4 time 2:02 4/5 was excellent on this course.

Hat off to the winner of 135 Kentucky Derby. "Mind that Bird" Canada two year old Champion.

The 2nd thru 4th place finishers ran huge races in defeat, I hope they all will come back in the Preakness.

I would expect a full field with great odds at Pimlico Race track and a time for redemption.

Phil, I could say the last min bump by POTN on Papa Clem cost him third place. But what the point!, every year the race is ran like a rodeo. and someone always get the worst!. You need racing luck and a great ride. Without you will not win the Classic.

Don't take anything away from Papa Clem, he ran a great race and vindicated my belief in his ability. JD belief in POTN was also well placed, as the colt would not be passed by the outside horses, and never saw MTB up the rail. Musket Man ran huge in the middle of the track to gain the show position.

Everyone else simply did not fire or was out class. Both Dubai horse were in perfect position, Regal Ransom proved he is the better of the two (Desert Party) as you can see from the overhead view, DP was laboring the final 1 /8 mile.

I would say this was one of the best ran Derby in quite some time. The best horse won on the best day in Horse Racing sports. Can't take that away from Mind That Bird.

Good Luck everyone, see on the facebook and twitter.

If you had that horse you got robbed-He should have paid 200-1-I couldn't bet the #8 with monopoly $$$$

Hahahahhaha...
Im as stunned as everybody else.

question to any takers....
Why does a horse-who was the Canadian champ...ran in a Grade 1...and has 4 wins under his belt... made a 50-1 horse?

I overlooked the horse...I didnt even look at his PP.

If anyone wants to join a contest at TVG - under Derbybloggers ( private group ) For the prize money you must enter the public league , also. Game starts Belmont - runs thru Breeder's Cup.

tvgfantasy.com

I don't know about anyone else, but I was wondering, how in the world did most folks miss Mind that Bird? Talk about under the radar. That bird was stealth. When I first heard the announcer say Bird, I thought it was Summer Bird and... for one brief shining moment... what can I say. That horse ran the pants off the entire field although POTN, MM, and Big Papa showed true grit. I do hope they continue on to the Preakness.

If anyone had that Bird, many kudos to you. I will spend the evening wondering why I didn't do an exacta with All and favorites. Tomorrow, I will start looking down the road at the Preakness.

It's been a great season, thank you all for such enjoyment and enlightenment on horse racing. I feel I learned a lot from the great discussions held here. I hope we'll carry on the the Preakness, but just in case, travel safe and hit em straight!

I put $10.00 on the horse because I suspected a long shot would win today. He seemed like the best "insurance" pick because Borel sneaks up the rail at Churchill ALL THE TIME. You'd think by now the other jockey's would figure out to block the rail when Bo-RAIL is in the race.

But in any case, that horse looked like somebody shot him out of a cannon. The best kept secret this Derby.

Jeff-
that was my though before the race. when i saw mine that bird was still 50to1- i commented to my friend how ridiculous it was that the horse had over 400k on him in the win pool. he was the only horse i spoke about how he should be 200to1 before the race started. shows what i know.

Overlooked? Mine That Bird, ran a miserable 12th in the BC juvy when he last faced this kind of competition, his highest Beyer is an 81, and his most recent work at CD was 5 panels in 1:02. You don't have that horse on the basis of PP. He was much the best today, but had never shown that kind of talent and to play him, you were either playing the jockey, the post position/number, the odds or ALL.

Congratulations to all who had him, but I will admit, I would have needed to play 18 or 19 to have that horse on my tickets. Even CB was shocked by the trip he got and the performance that horse delivered.

How was MTB ONLY 50:!?!?!?!?
Key word "only". Love the ride that Borel put on him, hated the pre-race interview with grumpy trainer, hated the post-race interview with grumpy trainer. That trainer seemed like the kind of guy you'd hate to have as a neighbor.

one more comment about today.... how about those synth runners? 4 of the top 5 finishers were all either exclusively synthetic or primarily synthetic racing horses. and of those 4, only papa clem had a win on dirt prior to the derby. So while the victor himself was a shocker to all.... it may not be wise to auto toss california based runners solely because they run on synthetics in the future....

Slew,

What's the password for joining the TVG Derbybloggers private group?

Thanks!

We grouped together to bet a $504 tri, we had 7 numbers over 9 numbers over 11 numbers and never even thought of using the 8. However it's a good thing that my oldest daughter's favorite numbers are 5-8-16.
I boxed the exacta and trifecta so at least I had that to fall back on.
Question for you guys.
On one of my bets I had the 1,5,8 (which the 5 scratched) in the Oaks,had #6 Einstein in the Woodford and had all in the derby.
Do I just get my money back for the scratch or do I get the favorite to replace the horse that scratched?

Thanks, woolsoxx

Hmmm, I can't wait til this horse gets tested. Doesn't seem in my mind it was possible for a horse like this to do this. Seems as if the horse was juiced or something. If they unload on their horse to win and place/show they were going to make a large chunk of money. So if they find out he was juiced they'd just forfeit the purse earnings and still make just as much, if not more $$$$$$ than the purse earnings. Does anyone have any info about this horses trainer/owner connections, maybe it's worth someone to look into this.... Just seems a little too suspicious to me.

And so i don't sound too critical and bashing, Congrats Calvin and Mine that Bird peeps.

Please, don't even start with the "he was juiced" nonsense. What happened is these "top notch" trainers take every shortcut possible on the way to the Derby, and they've been getting away with it for years. It doesn't usually matter because most, if not all, of the top Derby contenders are sloppily trained anymore, so they're all on the same page.

But it came back to haunt them today. Everyone got to see their shoddily trained, expensive horses get their butts kicked by a cheap gelding who hasn't won a race since last October. You gotta love it.

Coa came out of miserable gate......overcame that. Setting MM up for a target going into the home turn......did that. In the turn..... more horses drifting BOTH ways..... that's what got 'em!

Great ride,Eibar..... great run M Man.

You can bet the $ of torn up tickets for this one that this old Irish curmudgeon is gonna go deep into
his tattered pockets for Every play with THE MAN at the Preakness!! (as long as Coa stays on). Yep..
he can go 10f. God, I'm excited!

If my young Yonaguska has that route in him, I'm going to be in and out of cardiac ward from next Jan.
to June. I'm saving some Preakness set aside to light up whole churches candle coves.

If "the Bird" can win THE race so impressively (with lil help from MISTER Bo-rail).... then there isn't a dream too big for this sport.

woolsox"However it's a good thing that my oldest daughter's favorite numbers are 5-8-16.
I boxed the exacta and trifecta so at least I had that to fall back on."

Yeah right,lol

Im not saying overlooked...

I meant to ask why did the odds maker put Mine that Bird at 50-1?
Its easy for me to say now......

Anyone out there know this???

Mikie, Barrt, Astar, Law????

Question for you guys.
On one of my bets I had the 1,5,8 (which the 5 scratched) in the Oaks,had #6 Einstein in the Woodford and had all in the derby.
Do I just get my money back for the scratch or do I get the favorite to replace the horse that scratched?

Thanks, woolsoxx

You get a refund of your bets involving the 5.

The only way you could have played Mine that Bird yesterday and sold your soul to the devil are:

You're Canadian,
You play the dosage index (He did have the highest in the field 5.02 but I still wouldn't touchem),
You played the old third race off the layoff,
You liked him in the Sunland Derby and when he ran fourth said: if the only three horses to beat him in U.S. at 3 don't enter for the derby he has every chance to win it!
Have some twisted kinky fetish for trainers on crutches that look like they were in an 80's bad hair band

and I'm not buying the its my daughters favorite numbers bit. Unless your children are over 21 they shouldn't have favorite numbers. Maybe a color but If they have favorite numbers they need GA!

If you honestly truly liked Mine that Bird, then KELLY LEAKS A FREAKIN MONSTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kelly Leaks connections are probably kick themselves in the back of their heads! Had enough earnings plus beat the bird!

Outside of what I listed above, if anyone can make a case for him winning the derby, they are nuts. The off track was his benefit.

OLDPATH : I don't have it yet . Their first game just ended yesterday. The next starts June . When I get it I'll post on Facebook " Derbybloggers" or e-mail me at cawarner25@comcast.net and I'll send it to you. You can't blog there but we could communicate via Facebook " Derbybloggers"

Thx, Slew!

See y'all later!

MichaelH- your saying I didn't win? and I don't know why I care, but I did use my daughters favorite numbers, why else would I bet the #8? Are you saying you don't believe I had the winning exacta?
send me your email address and I can send you a copy of the scanned ticket if you would like?
If not then keep your comments to yourself when it comes to these type of issues.

woolsox:
I quite frankly could care less if you hit or not.

My point was kids shouldn't be involved with gambling period.
Once they are 21 a ok

I see it all the time, especially at my hometrack and many of the other tracks up and down the eastcoast. Parent's bringing their children to the track handing them nintendo ds, or psp's or just flat out making them stare at simucasting tv's (Not good for a child at all!!!!!). Then exploit them for picks all day. But then when the kid makes a fuss when they get bored, or gets upset and starts crying the parents start yelling at them. Meanwhile its the parent's to blame in the first place. Our sport is not playland at MCDonalds, or an arcade, or a playground. Kids want to be at home playing with their friends not stuck at a racetrack or shouting out numbers. I wish all tracks would set an age limit as to who can enter a gambling facility, cause its disgusting what you can see on a weekend! I am sure there are many others of us out there that see the same thing i do too (unless you hang out in the clubhouse all the time). It's not right.

Not saying you are that type of parent wooly

Just saying

Kids + Gambling = No No

P.S. couldn't keep my comment to myself

While I am at it too, for bashing tracks on age limits, might as well start bashing them on allowing first time starters at the autotote machines and windows. They should have people at the entrances asking patrons as they first walk inside the track "Have you ever wagered on horse racing before?" and if their response is no, point them directly to a wagering location strictly for the first time gambler or my favorite preferably in the opposite direction they came in. This way they don't waste hours of wagering time at the windows! Their $2 win bets don't help the exotic pools anyway. Heck I would hate to even see them try to figure out how to wheel or box horses at the autotote let alone win bet them. And they wonder why the pools were low this year!!

Hey racetracks you can even add in some of the second and third start bettors also!!

MichaelH- I couldn't agree more with ALL your comments, especially the novice bettors.
As far as kids and gambling, my kids have never seen the track and never will with me.
I just asked my two daughters to pick 3 numbers between 1-20 and these are the numbers they came up with.
So I boxed the 2 sets in tri's and exactas.

I apologize if I sounded rude.

It's all good as far as I'm concerned.

Take care, wooly

I apologize too Wooly
no biggie,

good luck with the preakness