this horse should not be on the website no chance in the derby as other races show unless he is extremely strong as a runner over dirt and improves sharply

Defense23,
How can you say he doesn't belong, He is by empire maker out of a Lord At War mare, he can make the distance with no problem. The colt is already a G1 winner. He has been working bullets in his last 3 works. He is extremely talented and he hasn't shown half of what he has. Clearly you haven't been reading any articles about the colt. "Private clocker Toby Turrell was a little more effusive, saying, To say Pioneerof the Nile is stepping forward would be an understatement. The work was incredible. Steiner never moved on him.”

i second zayata... if he shouldnt be on the website then who should. By the time the derby run he wont be even 3 years old. He's fulfilling he's daddy's legacy. His sire was not able to win a graded stake at 2. Pioneer did and a G1 of all things. Less than 3 lengths behind BC Winner and Juvi Champion...He galloped out in front of every one in the BC after a troubles trip. I don't know if you know that Defense23 but the derby is run at a 1 1/4 not 6f and not 1 1/16.. just wait till he runs in the SA Derby you will see how he will separate him self from the field. He had every excuse to lose the cash call G1 but class prevails. He was 3rd the whole way running out of his element. Made the lead and I want revenge had every chance to pass him but Pioneer's class talent and heart prevailed at the end he wouldn't let him pass and he galloped out strong. I want revenge didn't pass him in the gallop out. He was just doing the bare minimum to win. He has the pedigree to be a classic horse. Stamina from his daddy and speed from his mommy. He has the mind, class and the heart. This horse is not supposed to be running at 2 let alone be a G1 winner at 2. Baffert won 3 KY derbies so i think he knows what it takes to be a derby contender.

Just to add defense23,
Chocolate candy, axel foley and Mark S the cooler, all behind pioneer in the cashcall all came back to win.

POTN has great talent and will be tough to beat once he gets into his 3yr-old form. He has a great stride and his connections are some of the best. I loved his daddy and how he ran, so if this one comes close to running like his daddy, then he will have a BIG chance to win the KY Derby. He will only get better as distance increases. I saw him race at Keeneland last Oct. and liked him then.
I liked his stride and his pedigree. I will definitely give him a chance!

I agree with you Defense23. The synthetics don't translate to dirt at all. Curlin and Casino Drive, the two best horses in training at the time, didn't even hit the board in the Classic. How can that be? Synthetics will be a thing of the past. More horses are breaking down all the time on this surface. However, I don't take anything away from POTN. He is a good horse. I would rather see him at Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, or Oaklawn. Let's see what the Empire Maker colt can do on the dirt before we declare him a true contender. If the Derby was on synthetics, I wouldn't even question POTN's abilities to get the distance. Old Fashioned has the best chart numbers of any 3 year old. Until he gets beat, he is NUMERO UNO.

Hmmm...wa the traffic the problem in the disappointing 5th?

this horse can run like a beast in cal..if it translates to dirt he could be a contender

Actually Culin was third in the Derby behind Street Sense and Hard Spun

NO, PQ, he is talking about the Breeders Cup Classic. What is silly is that Curlin didn't lose to dirt routers in the BCC. He lost to synthetic and turf routers who were better closers than him. If you look at Curlin's time, he ran the same time he always runs, a 2 minute mile and a quarter. What is great about Curlin, if you look at his PP, you can see that he mints a 2 minute mile and a quarter on any surface, including Santa Anita. He is probably going to be great stallion because of this. The BCC set up perfectly for Raven's Pass, so much so, I won the exacta and even told people before the race that either RP, HTN, or DOM would win the race and only had those colts in my exacta as running first...it saved me a bundle. The race turned out exactly as the Racing Form information revealed for an exacta bet. I didn't go for the Tri because that third spot might have been gotten by the colt that I predicted would be the front runner...and if I let him into my bet, I would have to let several other colts too. In my life, I have never had a race turn out--at EVERY FURLONG, even as the race was unfolding--exactly as I planned (of course, subtrracting those cases when I picking the obvious "favorite"). Because the race was a natural setup for the closers, unlike most people, I admired Curlin for his effort. He minted a 2 minute mile and a quarter just like he always does. He is way, way, way better than the colts who happened to have the perfect setup that day. If he ran again at Santa Anita, he would probably win. Advice to the owner...you should have put a turf jockey on him.

Okay, what, exactly, is your problem "defense23?" You have a negative attitude toward almost every horse in this race. Unless you're an official of Churchill Downs, you have no right to say who can run and who can't.

I would have to agree with defense23 that I myself don't really find Pioneerof the Nile as a worthy contender he has beaten up on weak horses on a synthetic surface. Although I do belive he belongs in the field because he does win races that matter. He will get his test in the SA Derby and he will fail in that test when he is a soundly beaten horse by The Pamplemousse who will control from start to finish and win by two over Pioneerof the Nile. Also, pedigree does play a role in the how far a horse can run but it really means no matter when it comes to a horse itself. Secretariat a great horse could run all day wheras his father, Bold Ruler, had a great deal of trouble beyond a mile and an eighth. As for the Derby, Pioneerof the Nile finishes mid-pack. The day a syntheic specialist wins the Derby will be the Day the Derby has a syntheic surface. Hopefully for the fans, the sport, and the horses that day will never come. True horse races are run on the dirt where REAL winners are crowned kings.

Sprint08-
No way The Pamplemousse beats this horse in the Santa Anita. No way.

You have to be kidding yourself, on a loose lead, in what looks to be a five horse field The Pamplemousse will be three lengths clear early and hit that little something he has down deep, Pioneerof the Nile has not seen speed in any of his victories, he will fail and fail badly if he even thinks of going near the Mousse's fractions, his last race out proved to me that Pioneerof the Nile's day in the sun is long past he won't win a start until after the Triple Crown season and even then it'll be a couple of wins against modest company and you will never hear from him again. Look at the numbers they don't lie PotN's only chance is if a rabbit, and might I add, one hell of rabbit is entered to go after the Mousse.

sprint08,
what do you have to say now? pioneer is the best!

sprint08,
what do you have to say now? pioneer is the best!

I say that The Pamplemousse sadly will be missed due to injury. Also, the race was once again pace less with Pioneerof the Nile being very keen which will for sure ruin him if he has any chance in the Derby. Also, was I the only one who was greatly impressed by Chocolate Candy this horse is looking better and better at the perfect time, he just vaulted to #4 on my Top 10 list.

This horse is just coasting along, snatching up G1's and G2's while everyone writes him off... There's no reason to suggest he won't run on dirt. He's closed into fast fractions, stalked slow fractions, and even taken the lead after 4f ... He has serious talent that I'm certain he's yet to show.

i still want to see him on a real dirt track andi mean REAL DIRT

What is GoldenGateFields the only one with a brain here, Potn is bred to love CD, his dam won by 14 there in a stake, his dad was second in derby, his brother ran well over it.
Sprint08, you have the worst opinion i ever heard, the fact that he went on the lead was impressive, because he is a closer wait until he has a pace infront of him, he will kill them. He wants to go in splits of 12 like his dad, not 13

I still don't get the fascination with POTN. In many ways I think he's the 2009 version of Colonel John: a horse that was supposed to do great things when he got to dirt but hadn't shown much on the artificial surface he trained prior to dirt. The horses that have freaked when going to dirt from Pro Ride have been front runners and stalkers, not closers (See I Want Revenge, Albertus Maximus, and most recently Well Armed).

I understand the trainer & pedigree angles, but Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem, and Empire Maker had run really big races by the time they got to the Derby. We're still waiting to see that kind of effort from POTN and I'm leaning towards if we haven't seen it yet the Derby is the wrong place to look for it. I can think of 7 -8 other horses I'd side with before him. Maybe he'll prove me wrong.

Can't wait to see Pioneerof the Nile & Mafaaz in the Derby.
Both horses have question marks on the dirt - but if
Mafaaz can get adjusted in the Blue Grass, he'll big a big force
to reckon with on Derby Day.

GoldenGates- This horse is just coasting along, snatching up G1's and G2's while everyone writes him off... There's no reason to suggest he won't run on dirt. He's closed into fast fractions, stalked slow fractions, and even taken the lead after 4f ... He has serious talent that I'm certain he's yet to show.
Zayata - What is GoldenGateFields the only one with a brain here, Potn is bred to love CD, his dam won by 14 there in a stake, his dad was second in derby, his brother ran well over it.
Sprint08, you have the worst opinion i ever heard, the fact that he went on the lead was impressive, because he is a closer wait until he has a pace infront of him, he will kill them. He wants to go in splits of 12 like his dad, not 13

me- YOU HAVE TO WRITE HIM OFF, have you seen a KD winner win while winning big synthetic races NO it wont happen like i have stated until the KD is on synthetics you people don't get it. Horses who run well on synthetics have been doing terrible on Derby day. As shown with Dominican, Colonel John and every other wanna-be dirt horse.

It doesnt matter how the horse is bred at all i guess you have never heard of any great horse to find out that breeding means NOTHING at all. If you look at any horse Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed. They are breed to LOVE sprints yet what do all these horses have in common (let me think DUHAHHAHA) they are BRED TO SPRINT. THEY ALL WON THE TRIPLE CROWN. Learn something before you go on about breeding. The greatest horses are almost always breed to SPRINT. I guess you have no idea who Ribot is either. Know what you are talking about before you start blabbing your mouth. While your at it pick up a book.

My take: POTN seems to be bred for both the distance and the dirt, but reminds me of Baffert's training job on Point Given, when he used the Derby as a tightener and prep for the Belmont by coming to the the Derby with the best animal, but short off an easy, short field campaign in CA. Baffert virtually admitted that in post Derby comments (as I recall). After he brought tired horses Charasmatic and Real Quiet to defeat in the Belmont he over compensated with PG when he thought he had the real goods in PG, but took it too easy on him. If he really is better than I Want Revenge and gets off Rubbermaid to run to his dirt breeding it maybe be Baffert's Triple Crown at last. IF Baffert wakes up and tightens down on POTN......

For anyone to say Pioneerof The Nile does not belong, clearly does not know racing. I'm by no means saying he will win, not at all. I am saying that this animal DOES deserve to be there...They all do, they earned it. Now, If we must get technical, Mafaaz...NO, Not even close. Yes he ran wonderful...IN DUBAI! He is a fantastic animal, but he has yet to prove anything. I Want Revenge, His win in the Wood said a ton about his ability, he will be tough to beat. If you want a horse to watch, Musket Man is a trooper, his works are great, and he is in great shape. To tell the truth, Pioneer needs no crap, he has a wonderful trainer, one of the best we all know, and a great deal of talent. All we can do is wait. But come on people, They all deserve to be there!

My correction, When speaking of Mafaaz, it was England, not Dubai, and the boy ran in Keeneland April 11, finishing 8th. So my point is Mafaaz is just better going the other direction. I don't see him at all a Derby threat! I appoligize for my wrong info...So many horses to study in such little time. They all start to run together...Hope I don't run them together on Derby Day! Hey. I can't be that bad...Ive picked the winner the last 5 years. Hope I can continue my 5 year wins!!!!!

Sprint-I'llpray for you....anger person.

you SPRINT i see you been doing your homework, study long study wrong buddy, synthetic are of the new, those horses your talking about had no choice but to ride on dirt. I personally dont like this synthetic crap myself, but i do respect pioneer who won his last four and is to me the top 3 horses in the country right now. he peaking at the right time and one thing about horse raceing is you never know , just like you dont know what pioneer is going to do at kd dirt. And now that Gomez takes him, Id say his odds just got lower. He definetely belongs in the kentucky derby and I would not be surprised at all if he wins. But I sure hope its Quality Road at the winner circle. He is my triple crown candidate that should be undefeated!

Once again this to all of you who don't read my posts prior to the long one. I said that he does in fact belong in the race it self but he will not win it. Studying has nothing to do with how you handicap this race. The only horse who came to win the Derby after running on synthetics was Street Sense, who in fact hated Poly he was just in another class of horses so he was second to Dominican in the Bluegrass, no synthetic prep winner has EVER won the Derby. It will not change this year, POTN runs no better than 7th. Many reasons for this RANK in his last races, I don't care what the pace of the race is being rank is terrible for a horse leading up to the Derby, also his slow figures and actual slow times don't add up to a Derby victory this horse will tier under the dirt on the Churchill oval once he cooks himself with being too rank lets see how he acts with REAL mud thrown in his face. I'll say it again no better than 7th.

POTN will win the 135th KY Derby!!! Gomez chose POTN over Dunkirk which says ALOT! Dunkirk is an awesome horse and he is in my top 5 and at one point I thought he might win the derby until I saw Gomez chose POTN.

I have followed this horse and liked him since I saw him run at Keeneland last Oct. He has the pedigree, the trainer, that beautiful long stride to get the 1 1/4m race and the tactical speed. Just wait until he gets on dirt. I think the Pro Ride was holding him back. He couldn't dig in like he wanted to, but dirt will allow him to do that. So watch out for this cat!!! HE IS YOUR DERBY WINNER!!!!!!

I Want Revenge won't be too far behind followed by Friesan Fire and Dunkirk!!!

Here's all the proof you need for POTN winning the Derby:

Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top five:
8 times in 3Fr;
8 times in TE;
5 times in %E;
7 times in 10f;
7 times in 10fTT;
7 times in 10fLQ:
9 times in PF.

Pioneerof the Nile is in all of these. Here's the website to prove it: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2009_derby_pace_parameters.h...

go down almost to the end of the page

to bnike77:

Given the information you have just given me throwing all of my values out the door you just proved to me that MR. HOT STUFF is the Derby Winner not Pioneerof the Nile or anyone else. As I have said to others' before if you use information you must back up your opinion with facts other wise it is moot. Given all circumstances for your given information Mr. Hot Stuff would be first, I Want Revenge second, and Pioneerof the Nile third. Must I remind you this is your information in the fact that you pointed out Pioneerof the Nile wins.

My point: You simply can't say a horse is going to win the Derby because of his breeding that is ridiculous. This isn't just to you bnike77, the point in fact is half of this horse's support comes from being by Empire Maker. Breeding is near moot when it comes to racing. Ever heard of Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, etc. supposed sprinters who somehow made the Derby distance. Makes me wonder how nieve people are. If one wants to point out the horses he has beaten they are all horses that he keeps on beating no one new has challenged him that is of worthy note, the one horse who would have stolen the California show got hurt and it drastically changed the race. Dirt is my main reason for going against this horse. When basing a race on facts, the fact is POTN simply has no dirt experience which will cost him in this race.

By the way has anyone seen how awkward Chocolate Candy who was #4 on my Derby Top 10 runs on the dirt he looks like he is grinding and trying to much in his one gallop over the Churchill oval. He was magnificent on synthetics but never got the right race for him. I love his sire but unlike other followers of racehorses I simply don't choose my top contender just because of his sire, that is juvenile handicapping of a person. That is why many handicappers don't really know the history of the sport, gambling is their life and this is why I am not a gambler. I love this sport. If Candy has another "sloppy" looking workout I will have to drop him down from 6th to somewhere lower on my Top 10. Both the Dubai horses looked well in their works. Fire's work was a little slow for my taste but he still has to work at Churchill before I take him off the top spot on my top 10. Quality Road's work was also way slower than I would have liked I was looking for at least 1:11 2/5 for a speed horse who will more than likely be either 1 or 2 throughout the race. I still like Road though, I like him being a big speed horse. Dunkirk's work was very impressive and could not have gone better. General Quarters is a horse who is proven over Churchill and should not be left out of anyone's top 10.

Yeah, well, they also said Charismatic had little to no chance of winning the Derby in 1999. DO NOT COUNT OUT ANY HORSE!!!!! NOT ONE!!!! It's not just stats, or breeding, or weather, a lot has to do with the horse...Is he up to it, is he not, does he really feel like running, or not... So much plays a role in racing. When I get on a horse in the mornings, I can almost tell you how he/she is feeling in just a few strides. Tracks very, synthetic is awful, I don't like the way it feels in the irons, let alone what the animal is feeling. Truth is, any jock will tell you, It sometimes comes down to how your horse feels when morning comes. May Derby Day bring smiles to everyone! I really like Musket Man, love the way he moves. I want Revenge...also a top pick...Pioneer....Gomez...ENOUGH SAID... Happy Racing!!!!

For the moment we aren't waiting till the morning of the Derby. This is what this whole blog is about, there would be no point to it if we didn't state our sides to this equation. ENOUGH SAID lol

Sorry Sprint08, but I don't remember saying POTN will win the derby solely because he is by Empire Maker or by his breeding. I picked Smarty Jones and I even picked Afleet Alex when I saw him run in the BC Juvenile race. I know alot more than you think I do. So here's some facts for ya. By the way, it looks like POTN likes the CD dirt. He just posted 5 furlongs this morning in 1:00.80. And Baffert said that POTN takes to this track better than Santa Anita. He said that he seems more focused. Sorry man, but he's alot better horse than you think. He'll do similar to what IWR did. Got on dirt and went crazy!!!!!!

"The distance is what separates a lot of them and that is one thing I love about this horse is the distance will not be a problem," Baffert said. "People ask me to compare horses but he is maybe like Real Quiet, I knew he'd get the mile and a quarter."

I will admit I looked back at the post and you were not one of the people who was "breeding this and breeding that" so I am truly sorry. Also, I too saw POTN's work today and I will admit I was impressed, he seems to move well over it and looks like he is in good flesh. I am still puzzled by Chocolate Candy's work because I saw it and it really looked to me like he was struggling a little yet both trainer and jockey were ecstatic with the work(he may possibly just look lethargic when he works) so he is questionable right now for where he stands in my Top 10. As for I Want Revenge, this is the second work in a row at the Downs that I have not been impressed with either Mullins is saving his horse with that effort in the Wood or he is being too soft with him. Personally, I think the horse should be tightened down on a little before such a big race but we will have to wait and see how he does. As for the main reason in the blog for POTN, he did impress me and he will be moved up on my Top 10, still not breaking into the Top 4 but maybe 5. Good work, Baffert is a great trainer if anyone can get the job done it's him. As for racing on dirt itself, it is really impossible to see how well a horse will run on it until they race, as shown with two-time horse of the year Curlin who looked fine over the Poly when he worked yet couldn't quite handle it. So for now I have to be conservative and stick to my old theme of whats proven on dirt matters most.

He' s done a lot yes...but not enough to where he should be installed as the morning line favorite.

If he is put it will be solely due to the fact that Bob Baffert has three wins in this race. This colt hasn't proven himself over traditional dirt like my morning line favorite nominees (Quality Road and I Want Revenge) have and that unknown I think ought to raise the odds on him.

I'd say maybe between 9/2 to 7-1 is a fair starting odds for him.

We may have two horses that have fought it before in pioneerof the nile and i want revenge fight it out three more times.These horses seem to be coming into this race very fresh.Dont care to much about the works, because each trainer has their own system on how to get them to the race.BOX THESE TWO and may the best horse win!.WOULD LOVE TO SEE THESE TWO DUEL IT OUT THREE TIMES ie AFFIRMED AND ALYDAR!

With his moves over the dirt I am beginning to believe in him. No, I don't have him to win but he is now number 3 in my Top 10.

Am I the only one that notices not only is this a westcoast horse, but the last races the horse raced in were mostly in Santa Anita? woop ti do. I personally think this horse is over rated, and wont place. I had high hopes for this horse, in California.