Blue Grass

Runner-up in the Champagne S. (G1) and fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at age two, Commandperformance recently returned from a long layoff to finish second in a maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs, beaten five lengths by fellow Blue Grass entrant Fenwick. Commandperformance will need a step forward to turn the tables and challenge for a top-four finish against tougher company at Keeneland, but his encouraging juvenile form hints such improvement isn't out of the question.

After losing his first four starts at a variety of tracks, Fenwick took a big step forward in a one-mile and 40-yard maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs last month, carving out a slow pace before kicking away to beat Commandperformance by 5 1/4 lengths. But can Fenwick repeat the feat with a (presumably) less favorable setup against much fiercer competition?

Trademark showed promise on the Kentucky circuit last fall, wiring maiden and allowance races over 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. But the bay gelding hasn't been quite as effective on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, running 12th in the Sam F. Davis S. (G3) and fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Perhaps this caliber of competition is a little too deep.

It's hard to knock the performance Zandon produced in the Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds two months ago. Facing a deep field, Zandon hopped at the start and wound up farther off the pace then usual, but nevertheless rallied gamely into strong closing fractions to finish third behind next-out Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Epicenter and fellow Blue Grass entrant Smile Happy. Zandon figures to improve in his second run of the season, so with a clean start, he's a serious threat to win the Blue Grass.

Volcanic has come to hand nicely this season for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. After breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park by a neck over future Florida Derby (G1) runner-up Charge It, Volcanic battled to third place in the Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Volcanic is versatile in terms of running style and is progressing in the right direction, though he'll likely need another step forward to challenge for a top-four finish in the Blue Grass.

Emmanuel was as impressive as could be in his first two starts, wiring a Gulfstream maiden heat by 6 3/4 lengths before leading all the way to win a Tampa allowance by 4 1/2 lengths. An extremely wide trip proved to be his undoing when stepping up in class for the Fountain of Youth S. (G2), but Emmanuel nevertheless finished fourth in a quality field. If Emmanuel breaks cleanly in the Blue Grass and secures a forwardly placed trip, he can avoid the ground loss he suffered in the Fountain of Youth and vie for victory at an enticing price.

Victorious in his first two starts for trainer Mark Casse, Golden Glider finished behind stablemate Volcanic when fifth in the Sam F. Davis S. (G3) and improved only mildly when fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). His career-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating looks a little light against the Blue Grass field, so Golden Glider will need to step up his game to secure a top-four finish.

A wide trip cost Ethereal Road victory in the Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park last month, as the son of Quality Road missed by only half a length against the ground-saving Un Ojo. Even with the wide journey, Ethereal Road finished a nose ahead of Barber Road, who returned to finish second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last week. Ethereal Road hasn't run quite as fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as the Blue Grass favorites, but if he avoids a wide trip at Keeneland, a competitive finish isn't out of the question.

Winner of the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland as a juvenile, Rattle N Roll is 0-for-2 this year, finishing sixth in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) before coming home fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2). But fast finishing fractions in the Louisiana Derby made it difficult for Rattle N Roll to catch up; take note, the pacesetters ran 1-2-3. If he encounters a contested tempo while returning to Keeneland, a big rebound could be in the offing.

The horse to beat in the Blue Grass is clearly Smile Happy. Last fall at Churchill Downs, the son of Runhappy smashed a strong renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), winning by 3 1/4 lengths over future Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Classic Causeway and Florida Derby (G1) winner White Abarrio. Then in the Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds two months ago, Smile Happy rallied to finish second behind next-out Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Epicenter while counting Zandon among his beaten rivals. Smile Happy is eligible to improve in his second start of the season, so watch out—he's bound to be formidable in the Blue Grass.

A stretch-running maiden winner racing one mile over the Santa Anita dirt, Blackadder successfully switched to a synthetic Tapeta surface for the El Camino Real Derby two months ago, unleashing an inside rally to win by a neck. Blackadder's versatility is admirable, but his career-best 88 Brisnet Speed rating ranks on the light side.

Grantham has knocked heads with some talented runners while finishing fourth in the Withers S. (G3) and second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. But Grantham risks a wide trip while starting from the outside post on Saturday, and his career-best 87 Brisnet Speed rating leaves him with form to find against the Blue Grass favorites.