Feeling the Derby Power: Kentucky Derby Power Rankings 2025

Oct 07, 2025 Alastair Bull/TwinSpires.com

Ted Noffey wins the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. (Photo by Coady Media)

Week 1: Welcome to the first-ever TwinSpires Edge Power Rankings. Every week, we will assess what we think are the leading contenders for the 2026 Kentucky Derby on the First Saturday in May, and for the Kentucky Oaks the day beforehand.

Those of you who follow sports will probably be familiar with power rankings. It’s a way of ranking the best contenders for an end-of-season title in order by opinion, rather than by number of wins, positions on the table, or something similar. It means that, for example, if you rank NFL Super Bowl contenders, a team that has three wins from five games at this stage of the season might be higher on a power rankings list than some four-win teams if you think that three-win team has a greater chance of winning it all come February.

So, for the Kentucky Derby Power Rankings list, the rankings will be based on where the horse’s Derby prospects stand, based on the evidence we have to date from their races. Performances in races on the official Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule and other graded races will obviously weigh heavily, but impressive efforts in maiden and allowance races will also be considered when assembling the list.

This past weekend, with five juvenile Grade One races on dirt across North America, seems like an ideal starting point. From here, we’ll be looking at the lists weekly; sometimes a horse may not even need to race to move up the list, if their reputation is enhanced by a performance by a horse they have previously beaten.

So here we go. Feel free to disagree – and to back your views up when the Future Wager options arrive.

Learn more about the Kentucky Derby Future Wager here.

KENTUCKY DERBY POWER RANKINGS

1.         Ted Noffey

Unbeaten in three starts, with two of them being Grade One races, Ted Noffey is the clear top-ranked juvenile. Most encouragingly, he looked better the further he went in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). There’s a long way to go until Derby day, but he deserves the top spot at least until the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

2.         Brant

Probably the leader of Bob Baffert’s deep team of juveniles. Arguably a little underwhelming given his reputation when winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and not helped by Futurity runner-up Desert Gate’s subsequent American Pharoah (G1) defeat, but he’s still unbeaten and worthy of a high ranking

Brant training at Santa Anita, October 2025 (Photo by Horsephotos)

3.         Napoleon Solo

Caused a mild surprise when winning the Champagne (G1), but what’s not to like about an unbeaten juvenile who won a Grade One by a street in a fast time? Nothing, though the Kentucky Derby isn’t often won by a horse speeding along in front in fast sectionals. Clearly still a serious talent.

Napoleon Solo wins the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

4.         Intrepido

Was at even longer odds than Napoleon Solo when upsetting in the American Pharoah (G1). Not as decisive as the Champagne winner, but the way he found the line at the end of 1 1/16 miles bodes well for his Derby potential at 1 1/4 miles.

Intrepido wins the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

5.         Blackout Time

Followed a decisive maiden victory over subsequent winner I Did I Did by making a race of it with Ted Noffey for a long time in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). From the stable of Derby-winning trainer Kenny McPeek, whose juveniles have been known to improve with racing.

Blackout time wins at Ellis Park. (Photo by Coady Media)

6.         Desert Gate

Desert Gate winning the Best Pal (G3) at Del Mar (Photo by Benoit Photo)

Pushed Brant hard in the Del Mar Futurity. Perhaps deserved better than second in the American Pharoah, being run down late by Intrepido after engaging in a duel up front with stablemate Kristofferson, who faded to last. By Omaha Beach out of a Curlin mare, so he has Derby stamina potential.

7.         Englishman

Arguably, the most impressive maiden winner among the juveniles to date. Couldn’t have done much better when winning his seven-furlong debut Sept. 19 at Churchill Downs, leading most of the way before clearing out by 7 1/4 lengths. May have some questions about his stamina.

Englishman wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

8.         Plutarch

By Into Mischief out of Stellar Wind, so bred to be outstanding. Hasn’t won yet, but was runner-up in a graded turf race before fighting hard to be a close third to Intrepido and Desert Gate in the American Pharoah. The colt may improve further with time and distance.

Plutarch at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

9.         It’s Our Time

Favorite for the Champagne after winning his maiden by 17 3/4 lengths, but couldn’t keep up with Napoleon Solo. Paid the price for trying to keep up with that horse, fading late to fourth. Talented but could have questions regarding stamina.

It's Our Time wins at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

10.   Talkin

Rallied well for second in the Champagne after getting well back, albeit presenting no threat to Napoleon Solo. Won maiden earlier in gritty style. Sire has already produced two Classic winners (Mage, Dornoch) and is out of a Tiznow mare, so should enjoy longer journeys.

Talkin edges out Stradale at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

11.   Universe

Nice maiden winner at Saratoga, and then put up a good effort for third in the Champagne. Should improve further, and his pedigree suggests he should excel at longer distances.

Universe wins at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

12.   Litmus Test

Maiden winner who was fourth in the Del Mar Futurity before being shipped to Keeneland to run third in the Breeders’ Futurity behind Ted Noffey and Blackout Time after leading. Has the pedigree to stay further, but needs to improve to be a genuine contender.

Litimus wins at Del Mar. (Photo by horsephotos.com)

13.   Buetane

A $1.15 million OBS purchase, he started as the favorite in Hopeful (G1) after a nice Del Mar maiden victory, but finished a distant second to Ted Noffey. He may well improve with the travel experience. Has some Classic stamina in his pedigree.

14.   Ewing

Followed easy maiden victory at Saratoga with hard-fought win over Obliteration in Saratoga Special (G2), the pair a long way clear of the remainder. Clearly fast but hasn’t run past 6 1/2 furlongs. From the first crop of Knicks Go. An interesting prospect.

Ewing wins at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)

15.  Boyd

A $1.05 million Midlantic Juvenile purchase, he looked worth every penny when winning his debut at Del Mar Sept. 7. That was over 5 1/2 furlongs, however, so there has to be some queries about his stamina. But being by Forte’s sire, Violence, out of a Street Boss mare, his Derby prospects can’t be ruled out. Keep an eye on him.

16. Super Kick

Improved vastly on a seventh-place finish on debut to win a Churchill Downs maiden by more than five lengths Sept. 18. By Mitole, a half-brother to Derby runner-up Hot Rod Charlie, out of an Awesome Again mare, he could well have enough stamina to improve as distances lengthen.

Super Kick wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

17.   Spice Runner

Won the first race of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, the Iroquois (G3). Can be forgiven a bit for his fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity as he knuckled over at the start and was then checked going around the first turn. A brother to speedster Gunite, so there may be some stamina doubts.

Spice Runner wins the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

18.   Spun D M C

Followed some quick workouts with an impressive debut at Churchill Downs, racing clear of a six-furlong maiden field to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Sold most recently for $95,000 as a juvenile, he is by a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner out of a Smart Strike mare, so he deserves to be given a chance at longer trips.

Spun D M C wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

19.   Bust Out

Michael McCarthy made a big impact on the Classics this year with Journalism, and he could find himself on the Derby path again with Bust Out. He rallied strongly to win his debut at Los Alamitos, looking stronger the further he went. His pedigree isn’t full of stamina, but he could have the talent to make a mark on the Road to the Derby.

20.   Outfielder

Fourth in a Group 1 turf contest in France in August, he graduated to dirt in style over six furlongs at Keeneland Oct. 4. He’s now likely to be asked to stretch out to a longer race, and could have enough talent to be a Derby contender if he throws to his distaff side in aptitude.

Outfielder wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

Kentucky Oaks Power Rankings

1. Tommy Jo

2. Percy’s Bar

3. Bottle of Rouge

4. Explora

• TwinSpires Horse Profile

5. Iron Orchard

• TwinSpires Horse Profile

6. Rileytole

7. La Wally

• TwinSpires Horse Profile

8. Taken by the Wind

• TwinSpires Horse Profile

9. Kingsolver

10.  On Time Girl

• TwinSpires Horse Profile

11. The Grumpy Rabbit

• TwinSpires Horse Profile

12. Go to Girl

13. Five Bars

• TwinSpires Horse Profile

14. Ornellaia