Best bet for Breeders’ Cup weekend, November 2-4

Oct 31, 2018 John Mucciolo/

The biggest weekend in racing is upon us. Two days of Breeders’ Cup championship events will take place at Churchill Downs and the Best Bet of the weekend will be held beneath the Twin Spires on Friday.

Unbeaten COMPLEXITY (#6) (5-2) is one of a large cast of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) . The bay son of Maclean’s Music has been sterling to date and he gets top billing in a fine field of two-year-old prospects. 

The Chad Brown trainee was no mystery in his debut on closing day at Saratoga when going postward at 4-5 odds. The April foal broke a bit slowly but soon recovered and led the maiden special weight dash at every call, clocking six panels in a swift 1:09.78. His internal fractions were faster than how they ran in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) later on the card, and I think he might have won the Hopeful at first asking if entered.

Complexity returned in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park and could not have looked any better. The $375,000 Keeneland September purchase sprung out of the gate and never looked back in one of the more visually impressive performances of the season. He simply blitzed a potentially nice field. 

The bay colt did switch back to his left lead late at Belmont and might have distance limitations down the road. However, this is not the first Saturday in May 2019, and Complexity is not being asked to run 10 furlongs in this spot.

Following Complexity’s Grade 1 triumph, Brown said, 'For a horse that has his speed, to carry it is impressive. He was bred for speed, but he's so strong and an outstanding talent, so his pedigree might not limit him. He's a rare horse, an exceptional horse.'

The Kentucky-bred colt has posted a pair of solid morning drills in preparation of the Juvenile and I think he will run his foes off their respective feet once again. He has yet to be headed in his brief career and, while there are numerous runners with pace in the Juvenile, none of those are as quick as Complexity.

Brown saddled the winner of the 2017 Juvenile with champion Good Magic, who was also making a third lifetime start and exiting a run in the Champagne. I think history will repeat itself.


CODE OF HONOR (#11) (5-1) nearly went down early in the Champagne in a second lifetime performance. The Shug McGaughey trainee recovered in a big way, rallying late to be a clear second. I envision him coming on to complete the exacta once again.

A winner in his debut at Saratoga, the son of Noble Mission is an obvious talent and could post the biggest danger to Complexity in the latter stages of the Juvenile. It’s also a big positive that the mostly conservative McGaughey opts for this race instead of waiting for a pair of graded tests later in the season in New York.

I will be singling Complexity in most wagers with Code of Honor as my key runner underneath for the vertical exotics.

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