Breeders’ Cup Future Wager recommendations

Aug 26, 2018 Joe Kristufek

Catholic Boy dominated the Travers (G1), and in the Personal Ensign (G1), Abel Tasman once again got the best of Elate. It’s full speed ahead toward the Breeders’ Cup for all three of those talented runners and the recency of those performances is sure to lower their odds in the Classic and Distaff Future Wager pools, which close today at 6 and 6:30 p.m. (ET), respectively.

Fields are limited to 14 runners on race day, so with 23 individual horses and “all others” being offered for both races, there is some value to be found.

Wager at least $100 on those Future Wagers at Twinspires.com and earn a $10 bonus.

Here’s some food for thought. Odds as of noon on Sunday.

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

Worth a Play

#7 Diversify (10-1)

The 5-1 second choice on the morning line, chances are his odds will drop down considerably by day’s end. If you like him, anything higher than 6-1 would be fair.

#11 Gunnevera (30-1)

One of the likely favorites in next Saturday’s Woodward (G1) at Saratoga. A win there would obviously raise his stock.

#24 All Others (22-1)

I project him as one of the top 14 Classic prospects, so I was surprised Seeking the Soul, a live horse in next Saturday’s Woodward, wasn’t offered as an individual betting interest. 22-1 on that horse alone wouldn’t represent fair value at this moment, but there’s still time for a few lesser known names to step up.

No Thanks

#1 Accelerate (5-2)

If the Classic were run today he’d have as good a chance as anybody, but 5-2 is far, far too low more than two months before the race.

#4 Catalina Cruiser (20-1)

Unless his stablemate Accelerate doesn’t make the Classic, this guy is much more likely for the Dirt Mile (G1).

#23 West Coast (10-1)

He hasn’t raced since the Dubai World Cup (G1) in late March. He’s back in training, but has yet to publish an official workout. Trainer Bob Baffert is as good as it gets, but getting to the Classic, let alone winning it, would be a super tough task.

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

Worth a Play

#7 Elate (8-1)

She lost a tough decision to Abel Tasman in Saturday’s Personal Ensign (G1), but one could argue she was every bit as good, and with only two races under her belt this year, she could continue to progress. At 4-1 currently, Abel Tasman is half the price, and that almost seems fair.

#8 Eskimo Kisses (17-1)

She won the Alabama (G1) in authoritative fashion, and a big run in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland could knock down her odds even further going into the Distaff.

#13 Midnight Bisou (17-1) and #20 Talk Veuve to Me (75-1)

The 10 furlongs of the Alabama may have been a little too far for both of these gals and the heavy track probably didn’t do them any favors. Cutting back a furlong for the Distaff should help the cause.

No Thanks

#9 Farrell (11-1)

11-1? Really? She’s talented, but got crushed in the Personal Ensign. Step up to my hypothetical window and I’ll gladly give you 50-1.

#14 Monomoy Girl (3-1)

There’s no denying she’s had an incredible year, but she’s yet to face older horses, Abel Tasman and Elate (among others) are quite formidable, and 3-1 is too short 68 days out.

#24 All Others (10-1)

Unlike the Classic, where it’s remotely possible that a horse could step up in the next few weeks, I just don’t see it happening on the girls’ side.