Everything you need to know about the 2021 Kentucky Derby post positions

Apr 27, 2021 J. Keeler Johnson

Post positions for the 2021 Kentucky Derby were drawn on Tuesday morning, triggering the annual debate among bettors as to which horses drew well, which drew poorly, and which might enjoy ideal trips in the “Run for the Roses.”

Some assumptions will be anecdotal, based on gut feelings and the relative draws of key contenders. Other conclusions will be based on cold, hard data—specifically, the post position statistics meticulously compiled by Churchill Downs since the starting gate was first introduced for the 1930 Kentucky Derby.

How many winners have broken from post 1? What’s the win percentage of post 15? What percent of horses finish in the money (first, second, or third) when breaking from post 5? Who was the last horse to win from post 14? How about the last horse to finish in the money from post 17?

If you find yourself asking any of these questions, we’ve got you covered with a convenient chart breaking down all the Kentucky Derby post position data:

Post	2021 Derby Starter	Record	Win %	ITM %	Last Winner	Last ITM
1	Known Agenda	91-8-5-5	8.8%	19.8%	Ferdinand (1986)	Lookin At Lee (2nd, 2017)
2	Like the King	91-7-5-13	7.7%	27.5%	Affirmed (1978)	Revolutionary (3rd, 2013)
3	Brooklyn Strong	91-5-6-8	5.5%	20.9%	Real Quiet (1998)	Golden Soul (2nd, 2013)
4	Keepmeinmind	91-5-6-4	5.5%	16.5%	Super Saver (2010)	Danza (3rd, 2014)
5	Sainthood	91-10-8-4	11.0%	24.2%	Always Dreaming (2017)	Audible (3rd, 2018)
6	O Besos	91-2-8-3	2.2%	14.3%	Sea Hero (1993)	Good Magic (2nd, 2018)
7	Mandaloun	90-7-6-6	7.8%	21.1%	Justify (2018)	Justify (1st, 2018)
8	Medina Spirit	90-8-5-5	8.9%	20.0%	Mine That Bird (2009)	Tacitus (3rd, 2019)
9	Hot Rod Charlie	87-4-5-8	4.6%	19.5%	Riva Ridge (1972)	Mr. Big News (3rd, 2020)
10	Midnight Bourbon	84-9-6-9	10.7%	28.6%	Giacomo (2005)	Paddy O’Prado (3rd, 2010)
11	Dynamic One	80-2-6-4	2.5%	15.0%	Winning Colors (1988)	Code of Honor (2nd, 2019)
12	Helium	76-3-3-3	3.9%	11.8%	Canonero II (1971)	Afleet Alex (3rd, 2005)
13	Hidden Stash	74-5-5-7	6.8%	23.0%	Nyquist (2016)	Nyquist (1st, 2016)
14	Essential Quality	64-2-6-5	3.1%	20.3%	Carray Back (1961)	Tiz the Law (2nd, 2020)
15	Rock Your World	59-6-2-1	10.2%	15.3%	Authentic (2020)	Authentic (1st, 2020)
16	King Fury	48-4-3-3	8.3%	20.8%	Animal Kingdom (2011)	Commanding Curve (2nd, 2014)
17	Highly Motivated	41-0-1-2	0.0%	7.3%	None	Forty Niner (2nd, 1988)
18	Super Stock	33-2-4-0	6.1%	18.2%	Country House (2019)	Country House (1st, 2019)
19	Soup and Sandwich	28-1-1-0	3.6%	7.1%	I'll Have Another (2012)	I'll Have Another (1st, 2012)
20	Bourbonic	17-1-0-1	5.9%	11.8%	Big Brown (2008)	Big Brown (1st, 2008)

A few key takeaways from the chart are as follows:

• Post 1 is often dreaded since it’s difficult for horses to secure racing room while breaking from the inside of a large field. But while post 1 hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986, post 2, post 9, post 12, post 14, and post 17 have endured even worse luck. Post 14 hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Carray Back in 1961, and horses breaking from post 17 have gone 0-for-41.

• Not every Kentucky Derby features a full field, so inside posts are more likely to compile high win percentages than outside posts. In a 10-horse field, each post has a 10% chance at producing the winner. In a 20-horse field, each post has a 5% chance.

• Keeping the above in mind, it’s noteworthy how many Derby winners have broken from outside posts in recent years. Seven of the last 10 winners (70%) started from post 13 or wider, suggesting unencumbered trips are more important than saving ground in the Kentucky Derby.

• But based on a strict reading of the statistics, post 5 is the best position a horse can hope to draw. Not only has post 5 produced the most winners (10), the most runners-up (eight, tied with post 6), and the highest win percentage (11%), it also produced a top-five finisher in every Kentucky Derby from 2012 through 2019. This impressive streak included the victorious duo of California Chrome (2014) and Always Dreaming (2017).

• Post 15 has been particularly advantageous in the last decade, producing Kentucky Derby winners Orb (2013), American Pharoah (2015), and Authentic (2020).

Will Highly Motivated become the first Kentucky Derby winner to break from post 17? Will longshot Sainthood add to the decorated resume of post 5? Will Known Agenda overcome the dreaded rail draw? Will Like the King, Hot Rod Charlie, Helium, or Essential Quality reverse the long losing streaks for their respective post positions?

We’ll find out on the first Saturday in May.