Expert Pick of the Week: 2021 Raven Run Stakes

Oct 21, 2021 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

An excellent field of 13 three-year-old fillies will travel seven panels on the Keeneland dirt in Saturday’s $250,000 Raven Run S. (G2). The cast features numerous stakes winners from various regions of the country in what appears to be a demanding handicapping test, but I landed on a class filly to sweep by them all late en route to victory.

Juddmonte Farms’ homebredObligatoryhas been knocking heads with the best sophomores in the country this campaign, squaring off with graded foes in five straight including three in succession at Grade 1 level. The Bill Mott pupil is a Grade 2 winner at the distance, and she looks to be coming up to the Raven Run in fine fashion. She is the Expert Pick of the Week.

By Curlin, the gray filly went last-to-first in the Eight Belles S. (G2) at Churchill Downs in the spring, and she has performed well since. A closing runner-up in the Acorn S. (G1) at Belmont Park three prior, the Kentucky-bred showed her versatility last time out when forcing the pace and finishing a sharp second in the Cotillion S. (G1) at Parx when traveling 1 1/16 miles.

Obligatory has a potent turn of foot when she is at her best, and the cut back to seven furlongs will aid her late burst on Saturday. The accomplished filly gets back to what I think is her best distance, and if her blazing work on the Oklahoma training surface at Saratoga is any indication, she could be rounding into a peak performance at Keeneland. The filly draws widest of all in the field, but I have a lot of confidence that Florent Geroux will carve out a sensible trip atop the talented lass in the early stages.

Three-time stakes vixen Joy’s Rocket didn’t fire on the grass most recently but will appreciate the return to the main course in this affair for trainer Steve Asmussen. Victory Ride S. (G3) queen Souper Sensational, who was runner-up in the Test S. (G1) and Prioress S. (G2) in her last two offerings, looms large for conditioner Mark Casse. And Chad Brown’s lightly raced Zainalarab, a recent allowance winner at The Spa, is another prime top-three contender.

A trifecta with Obligatory over Joy’s Rocket, Souper Sensational, and Zainalarab is the Best Bet of the Week.