Expert Pick of the Week: 2022 Blue Grass Stakes

Apr 07, 2022 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A full field of 12 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/8 miles on the Keeneland dirt surface in Saturday’s $1 million Blue Grass S. (G1). The headliner on a huge opening weekend of action at the Lexington, Kentucky venue is a qualifying event on the 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series, with the top-four finishers banking points on a 100-40-20-10 structure.

The Blue Grass attracted a fantastic field of sophomores in what is a deep and competitive race, and I will look for a bit of value with my top selection. Emmanuel, one of two in the cast for conditioner Todd Pletcher, suffered his first setback most recently but seems poised to put in a career-best effort in his local debut. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Emmanuel made his first appearance on December 11 at Gulfstream Park and left little doubt in a one-mile maiden special weight contest, leading from gate-to-wire en route to a decisive 6 ¾-length tally under Luis Saez. The $350,000 yearling purchase aced his first try with winners second time out when waltzing home a 4 ½-length victor in an allowance tilt at Tampa Bay Downs.

The son of More Than Ready tested the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) in his next assignment and finished fourth, but the colt had an impossible trip five-wide for much of the race, and he will receive a much better voyage on Saturday. Emmanuel has the gate presence to be involved from the start, and I expect the top pick forcing the tempo from the break in a field lacking an abundance of early speed. The colt shows a trio of solid morning drills at Palm Beach Downs to prepare for this test. Luis Saez will be in the stirrups once again.

A bevy of contenders can be suggested for the minor awards, including Chad Brown’s Zandon. The Upstart colt finished a closing third despite a poor trip in the Risen Star S. (G2) in his 2022 debut, and the colt will surely be more fit on this occasion second off the shelf. The talented dark bay picks up pilot Flavien Prat, as well.

Grade 2 winner Smile Happy, one of two threats in the cast for conditioner Kenny McPeek, was runner-up in the Risen Star in his seasonal bow and rates a big chance with even slight improvement on Saturday. Runhappy colt, it should be noted, won at first asking at Keeneland by 5 ½-widening lengths. He will have Corey Lanerie in the silks.

An exacta with #6 Emmanuel on top of #4 Zandon and #10 Smile Happy in the Blue Grass Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week. Bet the Blue Grass Stakes with TwinSpires.