Expert Pick of the Week: 2022 Raven Run Stakes

Oct 20, 2022 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A total of nine sophomore fillies will travel seven panels on the Keeneland main surface in Saturday’s $350,000 Raven Run S. (G2). The feature on an excellent day of racing attracted a fine cast of three-year-olds, with contenders from top to bottom in the well-matched affair.

Smash Ticket has elevated her game in 2022, which coincided with the removal of blinkers. Trained by Rob Atras, the daughter of Midnight Lute is 3-for-3 this campaign, topped by a victory in the Weather Vane S. at Pimlico last time out. She is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Bred in the Bluegrass State, the dark bay flashed potential as a juvenile when she placed in the Sorrento S. (G3), but she is much better right now and seems set to pass a tough test on Saturday with her top performance. Smash Ticket, who was an 11-length allowance victress at Lone Star to commence this season, came back to knock off a solid allowance field at Saratoga prior to her Pimlico coup, and she posted a solid half-mile morning drill in the interim, as well. Kendrick Carmouche comes to Keeneland to retain the mount atop the filly, which I view as a major positive.

Among the slew of various strong contenders in the field, I have a major interest in Last Leaf in her second outing since joining the Eddie Kenneally shedrow. By Not This Time, the five-time stakes vixen ran into champion Echo Zulu in the Dogwood S. (G3) at Churchill Downs last time out when fourth, but she had won three in succession prior to that and will improve on Saturday.

The Kentucky-bred excels at the distance, she possesses a fine turn of foot in a speedy field, and the miss also smoked a bullet half-mile beneath the Twin Spires in advance of her local debut. Last Leaf will have Martin Garcia in the silks and will be rallying from off of the early tempo.

David Donk’s unbeaten Fingal’s Cave has done nothing wrong from a quartet of career tries to date. The Carpe Diem filly has won from six panels to 1 1/8 miles, and her versatile running style will have her well placed turning for home in this affair on the cut back in distance, too. The Empire State-bred is training well in advance of this assignment, led by a bullet five-eighths breeze on Sunday, and picking up Joel Rosario to ride is always a good thing.

An exacta with #2 Smash Ticket on top of #4 Last Leaf and #5 Fingal’s Cave in the Raven Run S. is the Best Bet of the Week.