Expert Pick of the Week: 2022 Risen Star Stakes

Feb 17, 2022 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A fantastic field of 10 sophomores will go postward in the $400,000 Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds on Saturday. The 1 1/8-mile event for three-year-olds acts as a 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series test and will offer qualifying points on a 50-20-10-5 structure to the top four finishers.

Winchell Thoroughbreds’ Epicenter has been impressive from a pair of races on the oval and gets the nod to notch his first graded stakes triumph for conditioner Steve Asmussen. The son of Not This Time is the Expert Pick of the Week.

Epicenter was unplaced sprinting on debut but has upped his game considerably since stretching out in distance. The Kentucky-bred graduated in style beneath the Twin Spires on November 13 and concluded his two-year-old season with a 6 1/2-length score in the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds on December 26. He commenced 2022 with a narrow defeat in the Lecomte S. (G3).

The bay colt faces a tall task in this endeavor, but he has fine form and is also the expected pace of the race. Epicenter exited his Lecomte effort in good fashion with two solid drills since, and I believe that the $260,000 yearling purchase will thrive with the added distance in the Risen Star, as well. Joel Rosario comes in to retain the mount atop the talented sophomore.

Unbeaten Smile Happy, who crushed his foes in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) in his juvenile finale, will be a formidable foe with his top performance. The Kenny McPeek trainee possesses a potent turn of foot, and the son of Runhappy appears to be training in steady fashion in advance of his three-year-old bow.

Al Stall’s Trafalgar was just fourth in the Lecomte last time out, but the capable son of Lord Nelson adds blinkers and has a lot of value for the exotics as a candidate to show big improvement. The dark bay colt had won two races in succession prior to his latest try, and I expect him to receive a good trip while tracking the pace from midpack early on with Colby Hernandez in the controls.

An exacta with #5 Epicenter on top of #8 Smile Happy and #3 Trafalgar in the Risen Star Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.