Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Audubon Stakes

May 29, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Scipio wins the Baffle Stakes at Santa Anita. (Photo by Benoit Photo)

An octet of three-year-olds will go 1 1/8 miles on the Churchill Downs turf in Saturday’s $275,000 Audubon S. Baffle S. winner Scipio didn’t fire his best shot when last seen in the deep American Turf S. (G1) on the Churchill green most recently, but I am expecting a big step forward from the sophomore on Saturday. He is the Expert Pick of the Week.

By Caravaggio, the dark bay placed in a pair of graded stakes races as a juvenile prior to concluding his two-year-old campaign with a maiden win at Santa Anita in December. Trained by Richard Baltas, the Kentucky-bred toppled stakes foes at the ‘Great Race Place’ to kick off 2025 prior to making a big late run to be runner-up in the Transylvania S. (G3) at Keeneland in his second run of the season. He ran a mostly even race in his debut beneath the Twin Spires last time out in a strong field and will appreciate facing off with more realistic foes on this day. The top pick has posted a pair of positive morning drills in advance of his second local appearance, and I expect him to pick up his second black-type win with Luis Saez inheriting the ride.

.@_KyleHampton & @AshleyAnd502 look ahead to a big weekend of racing @ChurchillDowns, starting with tonight’s Twilight Thursday card leading up to Saturday’s Stephen Foster Preview Day. 🐎 pic.twitter.com/ckg74Qi6Z1

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) May 29, 2025

The Grade-2 placed Early Adopter has employed a consistent turn of foot to this stage of his development and comes off a solid allowance score at Keeneland in his most recent endeavor for conditioner Chad Brown. The chestnut colt appreciated the removal of blinkers in his latest showing and could peak while making his third run off the layoff on Saturday. Lope De Vega sophomore will be doing his best work late with Flavien Prat in the stirrups.

Kitten’s Joy S. winner Charlie’s To Blame will make his first showing following an unplaced run in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on the synthetic at Turfway Park most recently. The $400,000 son of Blame comes in fresh with a move back to the lawn, and the Kentucky-bred colt looks like the controlling speed in the heat, too. He has trained well leading up to the event and will be forcing the action from the opening bell with Joel Rosario in the silks.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #3 Scipio on top of #5 Charlie’s to Blame and #8 Early Adopter in the 2025 Audubon Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.