Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Belmont Oaks Invitational

Jul 02, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Nitrogen wins the Edgewood at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media / Credit to Ashley Phillips)

An outstanding field of seven three-year-old fillies will travel nine furlongs on the Saratoga lawn in Saturday’s $500,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational S. (G1). The Mark Casse-trained Nitrogen will put her sterling five-for-five mark in 2025 on the line in hopes of achieving her initial win at the Grade 1 level.

By Medaglia d’Oro, the Kentucky-bred had a nice juvenile campaign with close finishes while third best in both the Natlama S. (G1) at Woodbine and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Del Mar, and she has really upped her game in 2025. The bay filly kicked off her season with a half-length triumph in the Ginger Brew S. at Gulfstream Park, and she has accumulated four graded stakes tallies in succession since that seasonal bow.

Nitrogen was a visually pleasing heroine of the Appalachian S. (G2) at Keeneland in April and was arguably more impressive in dusting her competition in the Edgewood S. (G2) at Churchill Downs on May 2. She proved her versatility when annihilating two foes in her dirt debut in the off-the-turf Wonder Again S. (G3) here on Belmont Day, and the homebred put in one maintenance breeze on the Oklahoma training surface in advance of Saturday, as well. The stalker will be near midpack along the backside before being given her cue from regular pilot Jose Ortiz.

Nitrogen, winner of the G2 Edgewood. 🍀 🌟 pic.twitter.com/Iu1695MSdh

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) May 2, 2025

Regret S. (G3) victress Fionn has improved her Brisnet Speed figure in every lifetime start for conditioner Brad Cox and can’t be discounted in the affair. The progressive daughter of fine turf influence, Twirling Candy, has a big turn of foot and comes off a game tally when running down a clear leader beneath the Twin Spires in her latest appearance. She is proven at the distance and will make one run in the stretch with Flavien Prat taking the reins.

Totally Justified broke her maiden in the P. G. Johnson S. on the course in the summer and could peak while making her third run of the season. Trained by Rusty Arnold, the Bregman Family Racing color bearer was a very good runner-up in the Regret in her most recent venture and will appreciate the return to this venue. The bay daughter of Justify will be forwardly placed from the opening bell with Luis Saez retaining the ride.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #7 Nitrogen on top of #3 Totally Justified and #5 Fionn in the 2025 Belmont Oaks is the Best Bet of the Week.