Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Belmont Stakes

Jun 04, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Sovereignty works before the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.

An exceptional field of eight sophomores will travel 1 1/4 miles on the Saratoga main oval in Saturday’s $2 million Belmont S. (G1). The third leg of the Triple Crown attracted the best in this crop at this stage of the season led by the top three finishers of the Kentucky Derby (G1), and I feel that the race will come down to that same trio at The Spa.

Godolphin homebred Sovereignty, who eclipsed the Run for the Roses in his latest appearance, has been perfectly handled this campaign by conditioner Bill Mott and gets the slight nod in the storied contest. By super sire Into Mischief, the bay possesses a punishing turn of foot that is ideal for the 10-furlong voyage as he proved at Churchill Downs, and the colt has reportedly been working towards the race as good as ever, or better, according to his connections.

The pace of the Belmont figures to be an honest one with a quartet of runners who will be forwardly placed to some extent in the contest, which will allow regular pilot Junior Alvarado to have Sovereignty saving ground before commencing his run approaching the turn for home.

Preakness S. (G1) victor Journalism, who was second in the Kentucky Derby, will likely receive a trip in the clear from his post slot after having journeys inside of horses in his last trio of assignments. The extremely talented and durable son of Curlin overcame an impossible situation to earn a well-deserved classic victory at Pimlico last time out, and he continues to thrive for trainer Michael McCarthy. I expect the bay to track the tempo in the three or four path to the top of the lane before moving into major contention at the top of the lane. Umberto Rispoli has the call once again.

The rapidly improving Baeza, a fast-closing third in Kentucky most recently, has to be given a lot of respect for conditioner John Shirreffs. The McKinzie colt is a half-brother to 2024 Belmont hero Dornoch, the 1 1/4-mile distance seems easily within his scope, and he also has the tactical speed to be well placed throughout in the event. He put in a good four-furlong morning drill on the Oklahoma in advance of Saturday and will have Flavien Prat returning to the saddle.

Expert Pick

A trifecta with #2 Sovereignty on top of #6 Baeza and #7 Journalism in the 2025 Belmont Stakes is the Best Bet of the Week.