Expert Pick of the Week: 2025 Dream Supreme Stakes

Nov 06, 2025 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

Immersive wins the Seneca Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)

A very good field of 10 fillies and mares will dash six panels on the famed Churchill Downs dirt oval in Saturday’s $300,000 Dream Supreme S. The horse to beat in the sprint is the fleet R Disaster from the barn of Saffie Joseph. A four-year-old filly who was bred in Florida, the lass has been consistently very good in her lifetime, finishing first or second in all 12 lifetime races to date.

R Disaster was last seen dominating her competition in the Gallant Bloom S. (G2) at Aqueduct when leading throughout en route to a 3 ½-length win on Sept. 27. The speedy bay loves this distance, shown by her 6-5-1-0 mark at six furlongs. The talented runner was also a nice winner in her previous try at Saratoga over the sloppy going.

She seems to be going well, leading up to Saturday, after recording two very good morning workouts in New York in preparation for her second run in Louisville. Jose Ortiz, who has been her jockey in four of her last five races dating back to May, will once again be in the saddle on the filly. R Disaster will be fast early and looks to be the one to catch as this field turns for home.

R Disaster takes R2 at Saratoga under @jose93_ortiz for trainer @SaffieJosephJr! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/ussfNWSH3K

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) August 20, 2025

Jersey Pearl was last seen driving home a nice allowance winner on this track in her second race of 2025 and could be dangerous in the event at a big price. Trained by Darrin Miller, the daughter of Bee Jersey was a promising three-year-old who hit a snag at four in 2024, but she seems to be close to her best leading up to this sprint race.

The five-year-old chestnut is perfect from two career runs at Churchill Downs, and what makes the stakes winner appealing to me is her versatility in that she can win from the front or from off the early lead. I feel as though this mare will race in fourth or fifth in the opening stages of the sprint before moving past runners in the stretch. She will have Francisco Arrieta riding for the third consecutive time.

Expert Pick

An exacta with #7 R Disaster on top of #3 Jersey Pearl in the 2025 Dream Supreme S. is the Best Bet of the Week.